Category Archives: Doomsday scenarios

Quick Update on Greece, Germany, and the IMF

We’d posted earlier this week that odds favored a Grexit. With the Greek bridge loan deal having passed the key hurdle of securing passage in the German Parliament, and Lagarde making it clear that the IMF will support an eventual bailout deal with “restructured” loans (ie, no haircuts), the odds have shifted. It is now more probable that this pillage-of-Greece program stays on track near term, meaning the so-called “third bailout” gets completed.

ECB Expected to Continue to Strangle Banks, Not Provide More ELA Funding Today, Despite Greek Parliament Passing Austerity Legislation (Updated: ECB Does Not Provide All of Requested Funding, Attaches New Strings)

The ECB is in full sack-of-Carthage mode if it fails to increase the ELA today to give Greek banks some hope of survival and more important for the economy, of providing payment services to citizens, businesses (particularly importers) and tourists

Odds Favor a Greece Deal Failure and Defacto Grexit

The odds now favor the tentative deal struck over the weekend to “rescue” Greece, which many have correctly depicted as a brutal economic colonization of Greece by its lenders, coming unraveled.

Convert to the Drachma – Piece of Cake. Right…

Those who consider a Grexit, meaning reintroducing drachma, to be a sine qua non for Greece moving forward have no idea of what that entails.

Greeks Rebel Against Bailout, Risk Collapse

Greek unions and other groups are mobilizing against the punitive deal tentatively agreed with Greece’s creditors. But can they really stand in its way?

Tentative Deal Strips Greece of Sovereignty, Makes Debt Relief Dependent on Compliance

The tentative deal deal with Greece and its creditors is simply vicious.

“Greece Brought a Latte to a Gunfight”

How Greece, and in particular, Yanis Varoufakis, grossly misunderstood German interests and how that led Greece to destroy itself and further German rule.

Greece Has Made No Preparation for a Grexit

This is as bad as we’ve feared.

A Grexit Looks Almost Inescapable

Despite my generally dour outlook, I never thought we’d arrive at the insane juncture we are at now, that of a Grexit being all but baked in.

The Greek Last-Chance Proposal: Stepping Backwards to Move Forward?

An analysis of the proposal approved by the Greek parliament yesterday by 251 votes out of 300.

“Tsipras Has Just Destroyed Greece”

Tsipras has managed to deliver to the neoliberals a victory more complete than they could ever have engineered on their own.

Greece Told to Submit Proposal By Thursday, Complete Deal By Sunday, or ECB Shoots Its Banks and Forces Grexit (Updated: Greece Requests Three Year Bailout)

Greece has been given a maximum of five days to come up with a proposal acceptable to its lenders. And “acceptable” would be more stringent than if it had agreed to the memorandum when Syriza assumed office in January

Chinese Stock Market Rout Continues; Trading Halted in Over Half of Listed Stocks

The Chinese stock market meltdown is accelerating despite government intervention and is blowing back to commodities markets, including copper and oil, which are trading down based on concern that the stock market plunge is a harbinger of even more economic weakness. And the decline may represent the beginning of the end of the faith in China’s command and control economy.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Tsipras Never Wanted to Win Referendum, is “Trapped” and “Depressed,” Syriza in “Turmoil” (Updated)

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has a bombshell report: Syriza never wanted to win the referendum and is now desperately contending with events that are spinning out of his control.

Will the ECB Continue Its “Sherman’s March to the Sea” with the Greek Economy?

If the ECB does not give Greek banks more funds under the ELA today, the Greek economy is going to start to suffer lasting damage.