Warning: this post is only for those with sound constitutions. Tim Lee, head of a financial economics consultancy, tells us in a Financial Times article what a carry trade unwind will look like (answer: very nasty) and what it would take to prevent it (the Japanese have to allow a high enough level of inflation […]
Read more...By way of background, Bill Gross is something of a legend in the fixed income world. He founded Pimco, one of the biggest and most highly respected fixed income firms, with nearly $700 billion under management. Gross is also its chief investment officer and is considered very savvy (and as important for the purposes of […]
Read more...Ooh, when it rains, it pours. First Bear, now this. However, readers of this blog will know we have been posting for some time on rampant liquidity, inadequate risk premia, lax lending, and overvalued assets every where you look. We thank Michael Panzner of Financial Armageddon for pointing out this story from the UK’s Telegraph. […]
Read more...We had wanted to write about the role of models and more important, model assumptions in the ongoing Bear Stearns hedge fund debacle, and Gretchen Morgenson of the New York Times, in her story, “When Models Misbehave,” provided some useful intelligence. With all due respect to Morgenson, while she touches on some dimensions of the […]
Read more...Six highly respected climate scientists have published a paper, “Climate change and trade gasses,” in The Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society (hat tip Gristmill) that says things are worse than is being reported. The paper takes issue with some of the assumptions of the IPCC report, arguing that it ignores that ice sheets melt […]
Read more...OK, the headline may be exaggerating, but not by much. A Bloomberg article titled, “Bernanke, Trichet Turn to BIS as Markets Ignore Risk,” discusses how central bankers are finding the Bank of International Settlements an increasingly important forum for exchanging ideas and intelligence. What is distressing yet not surprising is the central bankers’ acknowledgement of […]
Read more...Steve Rattner, best known as the heir apparent at Lazard Freres who overplayed his hand, and is now the head of a private equity firm, Quadrangle Partners, wrote a rather curious piece, “The Coming Credit Meltdown,” that ran in Monday’s Wall Street Journal (apologies for being on the late side in posting it). The odd […]
Read more...A post on the Guardian’s blog by Jeremy Seabrook blames a lot of the social ills afflicting British youth on the intrusion of the marketplace: binge-drinking, the “normalisation” of drugs, the cult of celebrity, the supremacy of what money can buy, incivility, absence of respect, obesity, the epidemic of sexually transmitted diseases – are by-products […]
Read more...A good article in the American Prospect by Barbara Dreyfus gives an overview of the state of play in the hedge fund industry and reviews the causes (considerable) for concern. The article is very much for the generalist reader and misses some points that are important (for example, the role of leverage in most hedge […]
Read more...We have mentioned before that the CDO market, a dark, murky, but rapidly growing part of the financial markets, is looking dodgier by the day. A brief primer: CDOs resemble other structured credits, like mortgage backed securities, in that they are structured into tranches of varying credit quality and maturities. The top tier is often […]
Read more...What the Fed and the Treasury would like take away, the SEC gives, and then some. The Fed is (finally) getting worried about systemic risk, and in this Financial Times story, the Treasury Department (which usually stays clear of this sort of thing, generally deferring to the Fed) says that it is concerned about hedge […]
Read more...The sudden disappearance of bees from many colonies is arguably the most underreported environmental story. Varroa mites have devastated the feral bee population, and as a result, one-third of the crops in the US depend on commercial beekeeping operations (meaning bees are brought in to a farm solely for the purpose of fertilizing its crops). […]
Read more...For quite some time, we have written about indifference to risk, unjustifiable asset prices in many markets, and high levels of liquidity all as different aspects of what John Authers called “overvalued credit” meaning overly bullish (more accurately speculative) conditions in debt markets which fuelled overheated conditions in asset classes that could be financed (and […]
Read more...Readers may notice today that we are a bit heavy on Financial Times stories. In part, that’s because the FT has a healthy respect for the fixed income markets. Political consultant and pretty scary guy James Carville once remarked, “I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President […]
Read more...Michael Panzner pointed us to a Bloomberg column by John Berry, “Fed Officials Fret Another `Russia’ May Occur.” Frankly, we are delighted to read this. It is high time the Fed woke up and took stock of the excesses taking place in virtually every asset class. Not only do we have very high liquidity, asset […]
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