By Andrew Kaplan, a hedge fund manager: It has become fashionable among equities managers of the bullish persuasion to argue that a strong recovery in GDP will occur in 2010 because the “structural adjustment period” of moving back to a more normal savings rate has been completed. We’ve gone from a savings rate of barely […]
Read more...We’ve been seeing an even higher than usual amount of skepticism on China’s official data releases, as if such a thing were even possible, given the general dim view of Chinese government data. Some observers, including yours truly, had looked to electrical usage as a better barometer of economic activity. Well, it turns out that […]
Read more...If you think US economic data leaves a lot to be desired, just remember that it looks stellar in comparison to what comes out of China. The latest China fun facts versus relentlessly upbeat official figures roundup comes with the help of reader Michael. First is that China has been reporting decent growth, with the […]
Read more...A study by the Boston Fed came to the credulity-straining conclusion that securitization was not a culprit in the noteworthy dearth of loan mods on residential mortgages, Lew Ranieri remarked back in 2008 at the Milken Conference that he was appalled by what was going on, that servicers used to do mods (as in no […]
Read more...Ratings agency Standard & Poors has managed a stunt which to my knowledge has no precedent in the history of the dark art of ratings. It downgraded some not all that highly structured commercial mortgage bonds last week to an eyepopping degree, from AAA to BBB-, just this side of being junk. Then they restored […]
Read more...The very fact an op-ed piece (more accurately, comment, as they call them in the Financial Times) by Paul Boyle against airbrushed accounting needed to be written at all is troubling. A move is afoot that appears further advanced than I realized is to fool with financial firm statements so as to reduce the procyclical […]
Read more...Consensus forecasts had expected a modest fall in initial unemployment claims this week; instead they increased by 15,000. Similarly, continuing claims rose by 29,000. Bloomberg still tried to put a happy face on this not-aligned-green-shoots story. This was the third and longest paragraph of a mere four paragraph report: Recent economic data shows some areas […]
Read more...I am beginning to feel as if I am being gaslighted. For those not familiar with the reference. Gas Light was a 1930s play in which a scheming husband keeps turning the gas lights in his house up and down, then keeps telling his wife that she is crazy when she comments on the changes. […]
Read more...Submitted by Edward Harrison of the site Credit Writedowns. A recent post I published on both Credit Writedowns and Naked Capitalism, “Both initial claims and continuing claims now pointing to recovery,” has left the impression that I am a wild-eyed bull – for which I have been duly smacked about the head. This is far […]
Read more...Was today’s unemployment release another Orwell sighting? Reader (and economist) Gonzalo Lira thinks the numbers were more than a tad tweaked to produce a more palatable result “We’re leveling off! We’re leveling off!”—so is the hope of Turbo Tim, Helicopter Ben, Larry the Wall Street Lackey and the rest of Team Obama. “This recession is […]
Read more...Submitted by Edward Harrison of the site Credit Writedowns Now that everyone is talking about green shoots and the potential for economic recovery, I thought I would run through the statistics of U.S. GDP with you. The reason I am bringing this up is that there is a lot of confusion about what recovery means […]
Read more...Even though I pride myself on being a constitutional cynic, truth be told even I harbor a wee bit of optimism. For instance, even thought I regularly write about how Things Are Going to Hell, Fast, I privately assume I am a pessimist and maybe a bit of a crank too, so things might not […]
Read more...Alan Greenspan had a brief moment when he seemed capable of being redeemed, when he admitted before Congress that he was wrong about his assumptions that firms could regulate themselves. I have yet to see another central figure in the banking meltdown admit error. But he has now gone back to trying to salvage burnish […]
Read more...Although the Fed has resorted to increasingly unconventional approaches for combatting our financial crisis, one it has used that is widely endorsed is the generous provision of liquidity. Luis I. Jácome H. in a VoxEU post, contends that the liberal use of central bank liquidity to stanch crises actually increased instability. One issue that will […]
Read more...Last year, we put America on Banana Republic watch, and sadly, things appear to be playing out as we feared: I’m certain you’re familiar with the expression “death wish.” I am beginning to wonder whether America has a banana republic wish. The country has been taking steps towards being a small-minded, elite-dominated, sham democracy. Mind […]
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