Barry Ritholtz via Seeking Alpha gives yet another example of a disheartening trend, namely, that government-issued statistics that investors, economists, and businesses for analytical and planning purposes are increasingly dubious. The case in point is the employment statistics. While the widely cited Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly employment report has showed tepid to reasonable employment […]
Read more...I am beginning to wonder whether there is a single statistic related to the state of the economy that can be trusted. The latest data point to bite the dust is the widely-quoted factoid that 13% of subprime mortgages are in default. Turns out not only is this number wrong, but the methodology used to […]
Read more...One of Barry Rithotlz’s themes has been the idea of “inflation ex-inflation,” meaning the BLS’s predilection to define core inflation in such a way so as to exclude any item, like energy, whose price just might happen to be going up. We’ve noted a more general decline in the accuracy of government-generated economic statistics, particularly […]
Read more...It’s quite remarkable how indifferent to bad economic data keeps coming in and the markets keep shrugging it off. And what is of particular concern, if you are the worrying sort, isn’t the peppy equity markets (that’s for the optimistic types anyhow), but the near-total indifference to risk in the credit markets. Aside from a […]
Read more...A few days ago, we used the patently manipulated April nonfarm employment report as the point of departure for a post complaining more generally about the increasing dubiousness of government-produced statistics. Barry Ritholtz, who was also on this story early, gives a recap of the various other analysts who have looked at the report and […]
Read more...I’m certain you’re familiar with the expression “death wish.” I am beginning to wonder whether America has a banana republic wish. The country has been taking steps towards being a small-minded, elite-dominated, sham democracy. Mind you, I am pointing to a tendency, not an established fact. The US isn’t Haiti, or even Argentina. But we […]
Read more...For those of you who were market watchers in the 1990s, Goldman Sachs’ investment strategist Abby Joseph Cohen always made to case to buy stocks. She was so well regarded that a bullish pronouncement would move the market. And since the market for the most part appreciated handsomely, she looked brilliant, until, of course, she […]
Read more...The reliable Barry Ritholtz of The Big Picture provides his take (and note he expects a downward revision, as with the fourth quarter): GDP came in way below consensus. Given recent revision history, its very likely this will not be the final number. The economy slowed to its weakest pace of gains in 4 years, […]
Read more...Barry Ritholtz has a good post today on how the inflation stats are being presented in a particularly misleading fashion. We already have the proud history of CPI being redefined in the 1990s to lower the published inflation rate. As an economist buddy explained: There was a big fuss over the CPI some years ago. […]
Read more...OK, I am being completely unfair, I just wanted to get your attention. The blog New Economist pointed me to a couple of posts by what it calls “the always readable Cato Institute gadfly Will Wilkinson” on the subject of happiness research. He finds most of it to be lousy. I have no doubt he […]
Read more...We aren’t saying that the market upheaval of last week was caused by fundamentals. It’s hard ex post facto to attribute an unwinding to any one event, or set of events, and in this case, there are many possible culprits. If we had to attribute it to any simple set of causes, it would be […]
Read more...Usury is becoming a hot topic. We posted on it a few days ago; it is also featured in a January 13 New York Times Op-Ed piece, “Banks Gone Wild” by Joe Lee and Thomas Parrish, which was then picked up in the blogsphere by Mark Thoma’s Economist’s View. From the Times: I owe about […]
Read more...Good post this morning on the debate over what the inverted yield curve means for economic prospects by Barry Ritholtz at The Big Picture | Yield Curve: Its different this time. The trigger was that Arthur Laffer has been arguing that the negative yield curve does not point to an impending recession, while a story […]
Read more...Before we get too far into the new year, let’s not overlook the year-end Economist, which had “Happiness (and How to Measure It)” on its cover. Despite its prominent placement, the topic of happiness hasn’t gotten to prime time. The year end issue has always showcased interesting, often oddball, but never terribly serious pieces (other […]
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