Category Archives: Dubious statistics

Private Equity Shares Tank Based on Trump Tariffs; Private Equity and Credit Crises Coming?

How the Trump tariffs will whack private equity, and even more so, investors like CalPERS and other public pension funds.

Another Trump Big Lie: “Reciprocal Tariffs”

Further discussion of the delustions and misrepresentations of the Trump tariffs.

Fed Not Buying Trump Administration Economic Snake Oil but Stands Largely Pat While Depicting Higher Inflation, Lower Growth Prospects

The Fed has noticed that Trump’s policies are chilling growth while stoking inflation, but is not yet ready to react strongly.

Replacing Foreign Aid: A Macroeconomic Plan B for Ukraine (and Europe)

Some Serious Economists make an analytically desperate justification of Europe providing big-ticket economic assistance to Ukraine

Business Press Suddenly and Widely Reporting Damage Done by Trump Economic Policies

As the wheels start coming off the Trump economy, the president shows no sign of changing course.

The Perceived Costs of Business Cycles and Inflation

Quelle surprise! People really hate the uncertainty that comes with business cycles. This bodes ill for the Trump regime.

Labour Is Becoming the Enemy of the Vulnerable and the Disabled

Labour goes all in for cutting social spending, first for the disabled, almost certainly with the excuse that it’s needed to fund rearming.

DOGE: Chaos, Damage, Drama Not Enough to Cover the Stench of Corruption

DOGE is up to even more no good than you imagined.

Climate Change: Insuring the World of Tomorrow

Leading edge conventional wisdom on the role of insurance as climate disasters increase underestimates the severity of the problem.

New Analysis from Economists for Ukraine: The Cost of US Aid to Ukraine Is Less Than Half the Official Figures

A granular analysis of US military and direct aid to Ukraine finds the official tallies are greatly overstated.

“Might the US Be About to Fall Off an Economic Cliff?”

The respected Atlanta Fed NowCast is scary bad, as in economic shoes about to drop in a big way bad.

“SOTU” Reactions: Business Press Turning on Trump as Tariffs Whack Markets, Look Set to Increase Inflation, Approval Falls and Even Republicans Getting Restive

Despite the Republican applause during Trump’s State of the Union speech, the business press is sounding alarms.

New York Fed’s Measure of “Inflation Persistence” Nixes Friday’s Idea that YoY PCE Inflation Cooled, Using Same Data

Inflation Whack-A-Mole: price pressures shifted from housing to non-housing services and core goods.

Trump and Wealth-Price Inflation: Still Running in the Background All the Time

Demand by America’s most affluent is driving consumer spending. That spending, in turn, is the main force keeping inflation so high

With RFK Jr. in Charge, Supplement Makers See Chance To Cash In

Why dietary supplement fans should be worried about RFK, Jr.’s plan to weaken their already lax regulation.