Category Archives: Economic fundamentals

Michael Pettis: Do Markets Determine the Value of the RMB?

A thorough discussion of the background and implications of the so-far modest devaluation of the RMB.

Why Bernie Sanders Should Add a Job Guarantee to His Policy Agenda

Bernie has unapologetically rejected sclerotic visions of what is ‘politically possible’. And now he should add the Job Guarantee to his list of issues.

Does a Strong Dollar Hurt Emerging Markets?

Conventional wisdom has it that strengthening dollar hurts emerging markets via a sudden exodus of host money. A new study argues that real economy forces are a bigger driver, specifically lower commodity prices.

A Pragmatic Approach to External Debt: The Write-Down of Germany’s Debts in 1953

Greece’s crisis has invited comparisons to the 1953 London Debt Agreement, which ended a long period of German default on external debt. Unfortunately for Greece, the motivations driving the 1953 agreement are nearly entirely absent today.

Greek Debt Sustainability: The Devil is in the Tails

The debate over Greek debt sustainability is muddied by the fact that different analysts use different definitions. But once you use realistic assumptions, as in “tails risks” are actually pretty likely, Greek debt is obviously not “sustainable”.

Will the Germans Derail the Tentative Greek Third Bailout?

Human dynamics, which over time played right into the Germans’ and other hardliners’ hands in the earlier chapters of the Greek bailout talks, may now be working against them.

Turbulence and Stability in Financial Markets: China in Recent Times

China is a case study of how liberalization of financial markets has never contributed to stability.

Australian Trade Minister: TPP “Trade” Deal Unlikely

When a Liberal government in Australia won’t back Obama’s “deal is near” party line on the TPP, you know it’s on the verge of being officially dead.

Saudi Oil Strategy: Brilliant Or Suicide?

Does it make sense to look at the Saudi strategy within the oil industry alone, or do analysts need to start factoring in deflationary economic policies around the world?

Greece Says It Has Reached a Deal with Creditors; New Research Says Germany Comes Out Ahead from Lending to Greece Even with 100% Default

Greece and its creditors have reached agreement on key terms for a so-called “third bailout”

Frack Now, Pay Later: A New Era In U.S. Oil?

Oilfield services providers like Halliburton and Schlumberger are so desperate to keep the fracking party going that they are extending credit to already-levered frackers.

Wolf Richter: China’s Hard Landing Suddenly Gets a Lot Rougher

Despite the 7% GDP growth published and hotly defended by the Chinese government, it is increasingly clear that the country is beset with a host of immense problems, after a debt-fueled binge of overbuilding and over-stimulating.

David Sirota: Hillary Clinton Is Running Away from Her “Free Trade” Record

Yet again, HIllary Clinton tries to distance herself from her “sell out the middle class” policies, this time on “free trade”.