According to Pimco’s global strategic adviser Richard Clarida and CEO Mohamed El-Erian, the new normal is not normal, and that has profound implications for investors. Some of the conclusions may sound a tad self-serving, in that Pimco is a bond shop, and fat tails implies more risk (or more accurately, higher odds of more extreme […]
Read more...Dean Baker has regularly made fun of the idea that the Chinese are concerned that they will show losses on their large dollar positions, mainly in invested mainly in US Treasuries. As serious traders will tell you, it’s actually easy to manipulate a market, but hard to make money doing it. As Baker put it: […]
Read more...In case you’ve been paying attention to market action rather than economic news, some key data releases for July have been less than cheery. For instance, consumer confidence has taken a nosedive, the US trade deficit unexpectedly worsened (meaning one of the few key sources of good news, the export sector, has hit an air […]
Read more...A school of political and economic argument goes something like this: every economic ill can be cured by tax cuts. It’s clearly rubbish when stated that way, yet the same logic is given far too much credence every time it is overused. A very good piece by William Gale at the Washington Post, “Five myths […]
Read more...This post first appeared on June 23, 2007 A neat little analysis by Ross Eisenbrey at the Economic Policy Institute may be difficult for union foes to explain away. It shows the proportion of workers covered by collective bargaining agreements in major European countries and the US and then shows productivity growth country by country […]
Read more...Cross-posted from The price of everything By Tim Price, Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management, a London-based fund manager “More than half of all workers have experienced a spell of unemployment, taken a cut in pay or hours or been forced to go part-time. The typical unemployed worker has been jobless for nearly six […]
Read more...Economists really do seem to struggle with history – and sometimes geography, too. Brad DeLong needs to remember that the Financial Times is published in London. As far as most combatants were concerned, the second world war broke out in September 1939. Niall Ferguson, FT, 20th July 2010. Goodish point. On the other hand, Ferguson […]
Read more...Cross posted from The Economic Populist. By Garrett Johnson Most people think that the Wall Street bailouts ended at least a year ago. They would be wrong. (Reuters) – Increased housing commitments swelled U.S. taxpayers’ total support for the financial system by $700 billion in the past year to around $3.7 trillion, a government watchdog […]
Read more...This post first appeared on March 14, 2007 One of today’s lessons is to have greater courage in my convictions. In a number of earlier posts (such as “The Rising Tide of Liquidity,” part 2 and part 3 of the same, “Where Has the (Perception of) Risk Gone“) I pointed to how toppy the markets […]
Read more...Crossposted from New Deal 2.0 By L. Randall Wray, Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri-Kansas City. Budget deficits and government spending are necessary to end today’s crisis. In recent months, a form of mass hysteria has swept the country as fear of “unsustainable” budget deficits replaced the earlier concern about the financial crisis, […]
Read more...This post first appeared on February 18, 2007 Mirable dictu, a Wall Street Journal editorial, “How Expansions Die,” that, for the most part, has a solid foundation in reality. Although the WSJ’s news pages have been reporting on the meltdown in the subprime mortgage market (admittedly somewhat less intently than the Financial Times), both the […]
Read more...Crossposted from New Deal 2.0 Another volley from Marshall Auerback, Senior Fellow at the Roosevelt Institute, and a market analyst and commentator. Larry Summers’s misguided approach to deficits and surpluses could strangle our long-term vitality. Virtually every profile on Larry Summers tells us that he is one of the most brilliant economists of his generation, […]
Read more...RealtyTrac, as reported on Housing Wire, gave a gloomy update on the US housing market. RealtyTrac does granular collection of data on foreclosures, capturing every filing. One of the shortcomings of this approach is that processes vary by state (as in some state require more court filings over the course of a foreclosure than others). […]
Read more...If you have any doubts about how easy it is for someone who works hard in the US to get ahead, consider this factoid from Martin Wolf’s latest comment in the Financial Times, on Raghuram Rajan’s new book (see Satyajit Das’ review here: Thus, Prof Rajan notes that “of every dollar of real income growth […]
Read more...Satyajit Das is too shrewd to call the European Financial Stability Facility, informally described as a €440 billion sovereign bailout fund, a mere sleight of hand. But it’s hard not to draw that conclusion after reading his Financial Times comment today. Central banks and governments have developed an alarming fondness for the very sort of […]
Read more...