Andy Xie, writing for Cajing, questions the durability of China’s recovery. He argues that much of hte upsurge in lending, which was one of the developments that cheered commentators, is fueling asset speculation, in this case in commodities, Reports this spring has suggested that as much as a third of the new lending was going […]
Read more...We’ve written off and on since late last year that the continuing cutbacks in credit cards would hurt small businesses, which have been the biggest source of job creation in the US for quite a stretch. The importance of credit cards as a source of funding to small companies has gone largely unnoticed in the […]
Read more...You cannot make this stuff up. Even as of last summer, there were reports that gold at retail was priced at a hefty premium, often 20% or more, to professional prices. Greater convenience comes with a greater markup. The German gold vending machine reportedly update prices every few minutes and add a 30% upcharge. The […]
Read more...Submitted by Edward Harrison of the site Credit Writedowns. Last night I wrote an article reminding you that downside risk remains in the global economy. While I have been singing a more bullish tune in regards to the prospect of a technical recovery in 2009, I am concerned about a double dip as a likely […]
Read more...Dear readers, I am in Regensburg, Germany, which seems to be a nice place. However, the ship in parked in a satellite dead zone, and I have had to repair to an Internet cafe, which is not my preferred way to work. Fortunately, reader Paul S. provided a useful sighting. Media mavens may recall that […]
Read more...Frankly, it is hard to know what to make of the ongoing noise form China regarding the dollar. The most sensible explanation is that China is playing to a domestic audience. China, after all, purchased dollar assets as a integral part of its development strategy. Independent of the fate of the dollar, successful developing economies […]
Read more...Submitted by DoctoRx, who comments on the economic and financial scenes at EconBlog Review: In thinking about Animal Spirits, I am reminded of Spencer Tracy’s comment about Katharine Hepburn in Pat and Mike: “Not much meat on her, but what’s there is cherce.” There’s not much meat on the bones of Animal Spirits, and what’s […]
Read more...I am beginning to feel as if I am being gaslighted. For those not familiar with the reference. Gas Light was a 1930s play in which a scheming husband keeps turning the gas lights in his house up and down, then keeps telling his wife that she is crazy when she comments on the changes. […]
Read more...Submitted by Rolfe Winkler, publisher of OptionARMageddon So much for de-leveraging…The Fed published its latest Flow of Funds report today. One key takeaway: While total debt is growing more slowly, it is still growing. Since Q3 ’08 households have cut their debt (slightly), but the federal government is borrowing so rapidly, overall debt continues to […]
Read more...Submitted by Edward Harrison of the site Credit Writedowns. The U.S. Labor Department came out with its latest weekly report. The data were mixed because initial claims are pointing to recovery, but continuing claims continue to hit new records. The long and short: the U.S. Labor market remains weak and will continue to be weak […]
Read more...One of the alleged reasons for cheer on the economic front is that major foreign economies are bottoming. For instance, Japan reported the biggest increase in industrial production in 56 years roughly two weeks ago, A comment from a Bloomberg story on that release: This is not so much a green shoot as it is […]
Read more...The bits of evidence that provided the strongest support to green shoots backers have been the rise in stock prices and possible signs of slowing in job losses. However, the rally warrants considerable critical scrutiny. First. violent rallies are more characteristic of bear market head fakes than new bull markets. And this rally has featured […]
Read more...Readers have been sending various Pangloss/Orwell sightings on a daily basis, with one’s take on whether they fall in the absurdist or merely creeping authoritarian camp depending on one’s degree of cynicism. I have only posed about 1/10th of them simply because it often takes a fair bit of parsing (headline v. meaningful comment close […]
Read more...As we have said, electricity use is a very reliable contemporaneous economic indicator. China’s power output and consumption figures say the economy is contracting. From China Stakes (hat tip reader Michael): China’s power consumption in May continued to decline. Although the National Bureau of Statistics denied the conflict between economic growth and power consumption decline […]
Read more...Submitted by Edward Harrison of the site Credit Writedowns The payroll data this morning were pretty good given the job losses came in nearly 200,000 less than expected. But further digging suggests the number is not nearly as bullish when parsing the data. Below are a few data points. ESTABLISHMENT SURVEY BULLISH: The headline jobs […]
Read more...