Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, who has been consistently alarmed about Europe (and often charged in comments of going overboard in general, and on this topic in particular) sounds a particularly loud alarm on Europe, based on the view that the ECB has not eased enough. I have limited insight here. I have been told that German banks […]
Read more...China has had two failed bill auctions this week, due to fears the government, which has started to raise rates, will continue down that path to curb money supply growth. Yet with growth flagging (anything under 8% is inadequate to absorb new workers), choking off stimulus now does not seem well timed. From Bloomberg: China […]
Read more...Even though the Baltic Dry Index, which measures freight rates rates for bulk transport, is well off its lows, other indicators of shipping activity are less encouraging. Containers shipment, which handles higher value added goods, is still falling and is expected to remain low in 2010. From the Los Angeles Times (hat tip DoctoRx): Trade […]
Read more...Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns. Laura Tyson, an advisor to President Barack Obama, said in a speech to day in the lead up to the –8 conference that the ground work for a potential second stimulus bill must be laid now. To be sure, the G-8 leaders are expected to recommend continued policy […]
Read more...While oil is a finite resource, focusing on the long term can blind one to near-term dynamics. There has been surprisingly little mention in the mainstream media of how large the current oil surplus is. The collective view seems to be that this will take care of itself in short order. But that may be […]
Read more...Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns. This post is from Niels Jensen of Absolute Return Partners. I have featured his monthly newsletter a number of times on Credit Writedowns (here’s the link to the last one, hilarious title). Jensen is very good. Visit www.arpllp.com to learn more about Absolute Return Partners and to sign […]
Read more...Dear readers, we are NOT setting out to have a Willem Buiter-fest this weekend. It’s simply that this is a slow news period and Buiter has a good post after the first video clip I’ve ever seen of him. So if there was more activity, the Buiter-density would be lower. The Anglophile Dutch economist has […]
Read more...The dour consumer sentiment readings said that the great unwashed are smarter than the financial talking heads. They had ceased to be impressed with the “green shoots” theory. Lo and behold, worse than expected employment data has proven them right. We’ve pointed out that the Carmen Reinhart/Kenneth Rogoff analysis of past severe financial crises suggests […]
Read more...Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns. Of late, there have been a lot of worries about he potential for inflation in the U.S. Marc Faber is the most noted pundit in this regard. Over-the-top comments he made back in May about hyperinflation in the U.S. may have been a catalyst for all of the […]
Read more...Um, how come this story is in the Sydney Morning Herald (as of about 20 hours ago) and not the US/UK business media? This is a pretty major development. Yes, commodities heavy Australia is most affected, but Oz is hardly alone in seeing the ramifications. While the US dollar is weakening, the Australian dollar has […]
Read more...Readers may recall that it wasn’t all that long ago that China’s banks were sitting on big losses and the analysts debated how bad the mess was. In 2003, for instance, the damage was pegged at $500 billion, a stunning figure given the size of the economy, and meant the banking system was insolvent. Even […]
Read more...There are some interesting things one learns in putting together a book. Blogging is a lot like working in watercolors, speed and confidence in execution are key, versus the oil-painting medium of a book. And you learn how many times you wind up scraping the canvas and reworking. I’m up to the sixth revision of […]
Read more...Consensus forecasts had expected a modest fall in initial unemployment claims this week; instead they increased by 15,000. Similarly, continuing claims rose by 29,000. Bloomberg still tried to put a happy face on this not-aligned-green-shoots story. This was the third and longest paragraph of a mere four paragraph report: Recent economic data shows some areas […]
Read more...Wow, the credit loss numbers keep getting worse and worse. And although a lot of observers like to attribute banks slashing credit lines and jacking up rates to pending pro-consumer rule changes, the more obvious culprit is their hemorrhaging portfolios. Banks tend to close the credit gate after the horse is in the next county, […]
Read more...Just as one man’s terrorist is another’s freedom fighter, so to is a return to prudent lending practices now leading to “unintended consequences”, namely fewer loans being extended. The post-bubble spin-mongering continues. New lending standards now mandated by Freddie and Fannie as a result of a settlement between New York State and the mortgage giants […]
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