It’s always a bit dangerous to generalize from one data point, even if if it is a big data point, like Long Beach, one of America’s most active commercial ports. Nevertheless, the New York Times uses it to present a vivid image of the economic, and in particular, trade slowdown. One focus is how imported […]
Read more...Some observers of the fall in US consumer spending have noted that despite the overall contraction, some merchants, such as Wal-Mart, are reporting solid sales gains. They infer that buyers are still spending, but have downtraded radically so as to reduce their total expenditures. While one needs to take care in generalizing from the US […]
Read more...It’s the collateral damage… think of all those innocents who had nothing to do with GM’s recidivist mismanagement who will nevertheless be hurt This probably will not go down as a classic (say, the Apple 1984 commercial or the “Harry and Louise” campaign that helped torpedo the Clinton health care plan). And there is a […]
Read more...I have not made a formal tally of Roubini’s various lists of why the economy is going (and will continue to go) to hell in a handbasket, but recent sightings suggest his typical list is eight to twelve reasons. However, in his latest missive, on the subject of why the consumer is toast, Roubini outdoes […]
Read more...Yet more evidence that consumers are hurting. From the Wall Street Journal: U.S. retail sales took a record dive in October as consumers afraid for their jobs continued a retreat heading into the holiday shopping season and cut back spending on a wide variety of goods ranging from cars to furniture to electronics. Separately, U.S. […]
Read more...This front page New York Times story on factory closings in the Pearl River delta covers ground already discussed in some detail on this blog. However, its report gives more detail on the resulting labor unrest. From the New York Times: For decades, the steamy Pearl River Delta area of southern Guangdong Province served as […]
Read more...Although this New York Times article gives a good overview of how the economic downturn is affecting legal practices, it does a bit of a disservice in implying that law is recession proof. Some types of law are highly cyclical: M&A, and to a lesser degree, securities law. While bankruptcies pick up in downtimes, they […]
Read more...We had pointed out that usage of oil had dropped over 10% during the first oil shock. While the price hike itself led directly to conservation, and this time we have an easing price environment, global economic conditions were not as difficult as today’s. From Bloomberg: Crude oil fell below $59 a barrel in New […]
Read more...A Wall Street Journal article, “Japan Worries It Faces the Return of Deflation,” contained an argument I found unconvincing: In the U.S., some economists say deflation may occur if market conditions deteriorate much further and job losses proliferate. But Teizo Taya, an adviser for Daiwa Institute of Research and a former policy board member of […]
Read more...We have gotten so large to throwing large numbers around in the US thanks to the various Fed facilities that the significance of the Chinese move may not be as obvious as it would otherwise be. $586 billion is a massive number for an economy the size of China’s. Recall our first stimulus package here […]
Read more...The dreary forecast comes from Eric Fishwick, chief economist at CLSA, an Asia-focused private equity firm. His reports in particular contends that the Chinese cannot possibly meet its growth projections for next year. One does not cross the officialdom in China casually. That suggests that either 1) CLSA is quite confident they won’t be making […]
Read more...As Dani Rodrik, who saw this item first, said, “Why do I think this is really bad news?” Remarkably, the article suggests that XIe might not attend the November 15 summit in Washington to discuss the future of the world financial order. This would be particularly noteworthy given China’s strong desire to push for a […]
Read more...The unusually dramatic headline comes from the New York Times. Note this drop was a not a surprise to some analysts such as Gary Shilling, who predicted a marked fall in retail sales, which when you allow for the fact that gas and food are not terribly discretionary, implies much greater declines in apparel and […]
Read more...Brad Setser and Nouriel Roubini have collaborated in research and publishing on currencies but since are working independently. Roubini issues a grim outlook for China (“Roubini Foresees Chinese Hard Landing“). A cornerstone of Roubini’s analysis was that China was export-dependent and exports are falling fast: Note that China is an economy is structurally dependent on […]
Read more...It looks like the perenially optimistic analyst community is finally getting the message that the recession will be nasty. From Bloomberg: Analysts are slicing profit forecasts for U.S. companies in the fourth quarter and 2009 as third- period results miss projections at the highest rate in almost 11 years. “Estimates have been coming down with […]
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