Category Archives: Energy markets

Why The Oil Price Collapse Is U.S. Shale’s Fault

Arthur Berman links overproduction of expensive oil and shale gas to access to cheap financing. In other words, the shale gas boom and bust is in large measure a by-product of ZIRP and QE

Why Putin Doesn’t Need To Pander To The West

When sanctions were imposed and tightened against Russia, and oil prices plunged, conventional wisdom in the US press was that the Russian people would not tolerate a decline in living standards and therefore Putin’s days were numbered. In fact, Putin’s approval ratings rose and even most of his opponents in the Moscow intelligensia fell in behind him. Some analysts pointed out that sanctions seldom succeed and were unlikely to work on Russia. That view has become more prevalent as Russia has proven to be less dependent on oil revenues than widely assumed and Russia’s foreign currency reserves have stabilized.

Why Did Commodity Prices Move Together?

As strange as it may seem, most economists loudly disputed the notion that the rise in commodity prices, particularly in the first half of 2008, was in large measure due to financial speculation. More and more analytical work (such as comparisons of price action in commodities trades on futures exchanges with ones that have large markets but are not exchange-traded, like eggplant, a staple in India, and cooking oil) have dented the orthodox view.

Fracking’s New Nemesis: Earthquake Lawsuits

Despite widespread environmental concerns and community opposition, in large swathes of the US, the fracking industrial complex has seemed unstoppable. That may finally be changing.

Shale Gas: “An Orgy of Over-Production”

As we pointed out early on in the oil price bust, following the argument of John Dizard of the Financial Times, shale gas operators, aka frackers, were often carrying so much debt that they simply could not afford to cut production. They’d keep pumping, even at a loss, to generate cash flow to keep servicing their obligations. Over-production would tail off only when the money sources dried up.

As we’ve since chronicled, even though rig counts have fallen, shale gas production has actually increases. Arthur Berman provides a detailed look at tight oil and shale gas output, and confirms that the rig count cuts for shale gas have not been deep enough.

Wolf Richter: Investors Crushed as US Natural Gas Drillers Blow Up

The carnage in natural gas drillers that Wolf called early has arrived.

Oil Investors, Beware The “Fracklog”

The fracklog is bigger than you think. That means the time to an energy price recovery isn’t as soon as many boosters hope.

Debunking America’s Energy Fantasy: Shale Gas and Tight Oil Peak in Next Decade

Oil and gas expert Arthur Berman gave a detailed talk last month about hype versus reality as far as the outlook for US shale gas and oil production is concerned.

Wolf Richter: The US Oil Bust Just Got Worse

Wolf was early to point out the disconnect between declining rig counts, which the mainstream media has touted as proof that the oil bust was about to end, and rising production. That pattern has not abated.

Gail Tverberg: The Oil Glut and Low Prices Reflect an Affordability Problem

Tverberg argues that low oil prices likely to be with us for a long time, due to the fact that demand will remain relatively weak. Given the reluctance of governments to engage in aggressive enough spending measures, the idea of that more economies will become mired in a Japan-like slump or weak demand is entirely plausible. And that’s before you get to the wild card of a Eurozone unraveling.

The Money Laundering Web: HSBC, Margaret Hodge, Sir Alan Duncan, Vitol…and Mossack Fonseca

Fallout from the HSBC session of the Public Accounts in which Mossack Fonseca’s name cropped up and Margaret Hodge administered a few tongue-lashings

Fracking Industry Conspiring To Cover Up Oklahoma Earthquake Evidence?

It’s one thing to suspect that evidence that fracking causes earthquakes is being suppressed. It’s quite another to be able to name the parties behind the cover up.

Wolf Richter: “Default Monday”: Oil & Gas Companies Face Their Creditors as the Fracking Bubble Bursts

Lambert here: Who woulda thunk the Fed’s easy money policy — no, not for you! — would contaminate millions of gallons of water and create exploding “train bombs”? Life’s little ironies…

Impotent Western Sanctions Fail To Disrupt Russian Energy Exports

Who has won and lost from the Western sanctions against Russia?

The Obama Administration, Shell, and the Fate of the Arctic Ocean

Royal Dutch Shell wants to drill in the Chukchi Sea this summer and that could, in the long term, spell doom for one of the last great, relatively untouched oceanic environments on the planet.