Category Archives: Investment outlook

South Korea Scrambles Jets in Retaliation for North Korean Fire on Populated Area

I was going to relegate this story to Links, but it is escalating before my eyes. North Korea is known for saber rattling and firing rockets that conveniently fall in the ocean when the verging-on-starvation nation needs a handout. But even at the outset, its latest move looked uncomfortably more belligerent than its usual ploys. […]

Read more...

Guest Post: A recession to remember – Lessons from the US, 1937–1938

Yves here. Normally I put up cross posts without additional commentary, but I wanted to offer a couple of observations about this post. While this piece is admittedly a bit heavy on economist-speak, and readers may differ with the policy recommendations, = it gives an even-handed account of the early rebound during the Great Depression […]

Read more...

Noose Closing on Ireland

We indicated yesterday that the Irish government had been in the process of trying to steer an inevitable rescue operation towards salvaging its bloated, cancerous banking system rather than a government bailout, which would not only further reduce national sovereignty but also saddle Erin with debt that could not be restructured. Stratfor describes how the […]

Read more...

Ireland Brinksmanship with the EU: Slow Motion Bank Run May Be Giving Government Leverage

In negotiations, understanding where you have leverage relative to your counterpart is key. Ireland appears to be engaged in a quiet staredown with the EU, evidently with the objective of securing a rescue of its banks rather than its government. In case you managed to miss it, Ireland is in the midst of a long […]

Read more...

On Bank of America’s Loan-by-Loan Fight in Putbacks

It’s more than a bit puzzling when readers get upset when once in a great while, we point out how the case against banks on a particular issue is overstated. The reaction seems to be that we’ve suddenly gone soft on financial firm miscreants, which is about as wide of the mark as you can […]

Read more...

Lobbying to Keep the Capital Markets a Casino

Keynes, himself a successful investor, was alert to the danger of a disproportionate level of speculative activity. His oft-repeated remark: Speculators may do no harm as bubbles on a steady stream of enterprise. But the position is serious when enterprise becomes the bubble on a whirlpool of speculation. When the capital development of a country […]

Read more...

Auerback: Amateur Hour at the Federal Reserve

By Marshall Auerback, a portfolio strategist and Roosevelt Institute Fellow As any student of Economics 101 realises, you can control the price of something, or the quantity, but not both simultaneously. In announcing its decision to purchase an additional $600bn of treasuries last week, the Federal Reserve presumably intended to create additional stimulus to an […]

Read more...

John Hussman on QE2, Bernanke’s Recklessness, and the Fed’s Constitution-Abusing Quasi-Fiscal Role

John Hussman is always worth reading, and his current missive is a hum-dinger. I’m extracting some key bits below, and urge you to read it in full. Note that Hussman is far from alone in chiding the Fed for encroaching on Constitutionally-mandated budget processes, including former central bankers. From Willem Buiter: As regards democratic accountability […]

Read more...

Fed Statements Side By Side

The Fed seems to have decided to split a loaf on the conservative side, coming in with less QE than the market’s hopes, at $600 billion, but one might cynically surmise above the low end expectation of $500 billion. Side by side comparison of this FOMC statement with the next most recent courtesy Andrew Horowitz […]

Read more...

Is the US Taking Too Much of the Brunt of the Crisis Aftermath?

Before readers throw brickbats at me, I’m just acting as the messenger for two articles, one by Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff, the other by the Financial Times’ Martin Wolf. Each points out that the US is taking a proportionately bigger hit than other big economies post crisis, particularly in terms of unemployment. And this is actually […]

Read more...

Germany Draws Line in the Sand on Eurozone Bailouts, Insists Bondholders Take Pain

The contradictions of the Eurobailout mechanism were bound to be resolved at some point, smoke and mirror and insufficient firepower relative to the magnitude of the problem will only take you so far. The eurozone rescue operation, although it looked like it was aimed at so called Club Med, aka PIGS sovereigns (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, […]

Read more...

Have the US and China Kissed and Made Up?

The recent jousting between the US and China had the look of a full on row. And the spectacle at last weekend’s G20 seemed to offer further confirmation, with Geithner proposing a cap on current account surpluses that was aimed at China above all. But now the Financial Times tells us that relations are already […]

Read more...

MERS Concerns Extend to Commercial Real Estate

When we’ve discussed the woes afflicting residential mortgage securitizations, in particular, the deep seated problems arising from the frequent if not widespread failure of the original parties to the deal to take the steps stipulated in their own agreements needed to convey the notes (the borrower’s promissory note) to the securitization legal vehicle, a trust. […]

Read more...

What does PBOC’s latest rate hike tell us?

By Yiping Huang, Professor of Economics at the China Center for Economic Research, Peking University. Cross-posted from VoxEU. On 19 October, the People’s Bank of China announced a series of rate hikes. This column argues that the moves were aimed at combating domestic inflation and avoiding the mistakes of Japan in the 1980s. On 19 […]

Read more...