How could anyone have expected new home building to be anything more than anemic with housing prices expected to fall nationwide in 2011? Did some forecasters miss the fact that there are a lot of foreclosures in the pipeline given the current level of serious delinquencies as well as a lot of shadow (homeowners who would like to sell but are not putting their homes on the market due to depressed prices in their market?)
Read more...By John Hempton, a Sydney-based investor, recovering financial services analyst, and former Australian government official who writes at Bronte Capital
I met Hank Greenberg in late 2000. He was chatting mostly to Ajit Jain – the Berkshire Hathaway reinsurance impresario and I was a spare wheel. But Hank was I thought the most impressive person I had ever met. He name-dropped shamelessly (he had had just flown back to New York on a private jet after “chatting” with Li Peng). But he was so far ahead of me on so many issues it made me feel dumb. He even looked – at least in the brief conversation – as if he were considerably smarter than Ajit Jain – and Ajit is no intellectual slouch.
I was just out of my league…
Read more...The stock market decline in Japan thus far today is second worst to the 1987 crash. As a mere mortal with delayed Bloomberg readings, Topix is now down “only” 12.64 versus a recent 13.18% and the Nikkei is off 12.74%, having recovered a smidge from down 14.1%. Good thing I didn’t listen to some recent stock market recommendations that the Japanese stock market would be up 20% in the first six months of this year.
The yen has firmed only modestly, to 81.55, due to Bank of Japan emergency liquidity operations only partially offsetting a rally. Note the BoJ’s operations are being criticized for being inadequate (ahem, do you think even a central bank can stand in front of a freight train of a major reset in economic fundamentals, unless it chooses to intervene in the stock market directly? Given the current and potential economic damage, the Japanese bond and money markets don’t sound too terrible with call money rates in a much wider trading range than normal. 008% to 0.13% versus the BofJ’s target of 0.1%, so the BoJ appears to be addressing what it considers to be its main priority). From Bloomberg:
Read more...Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Telegraph voices his concern that central banks are going to misread the impact of rising oil prices and therefore make the wrong interest rate decision. Bear in mind that Evans-Pritchard called the 2008 oil spike correctly, deeming it to be a bubble, and was also in the minority then in arguing that deflation was a bigger risk to the economy than inflation.
One leg of his argument is that oil price increases slow economic growth. That’s hardly startling; indeed, this concern has been echoed widely in the last few days. For instance, as David Rosenberg notes, courtesy Pragmatic Capitalism:
Read more...The Shanghai Index fell 2.6% overnight. Italian bonds are blowing out. If sustained, this is bigger deal than the stock market swoon across Europe: CAC down 1.45%, FTSE down 1.1%, Dax off .4%. A lot of Libyan shares apparently in Italy and Libyan interests own over 7% of Unicredit, the biggest bank in Italy. Ouch. […]
Read more...Peculiarly (and I’ll have to admit I’m among the guilty), a state-wide halt of foreclosures by a Bank of America unit in Nevada earlier in the week attracted remarkably little notice. The number of foreclosures in involved is meaningful, over 8000. The reason may seem somewhat technical, and presumably would not apply to other BofA units, namely, that the entity, ReconTrust Co, is operating without a proper business license. But then it gets interesting.
First, we get Bank of America’s position, per the Las Vegas Review Journal(hat tip ForeclosureFraud):
Read more...Portfolio strategist, hedge fund manager, and sometime Naked Capitalism guest blogger Marshall Auerback spoke on BNN about the implications of unrest in the Middle East for the economy and investors. Enjoy!
Read more...I’ve refrained from discussing the stock market for quite some time, in part because this is not an investment website and in part because I find the netherworld of credit more interesting. But a big reason of late is that the stock market has become so utterly unhinged from fundamentals that anyone opining on it, other than momentum trades and technicians with particularly good crystal balls, is likely to look silly.
We seem to be in a toxic replay of what I called the Tinkerbell market in 2007 and 2008: if the officialdom can get enough people to applaud, the economy will live. They weren’t too successful back then, but the crisis has appeared to have upped the game of the Powers That Be in talking up the price of financial instruments. And having the Fed at ready to provide boatloads of liquidity should anything go awry appears to have put much of the world in “don’t fight the Fed” mode.
Market action is looking a tad manic, yet the dot-com mania proved that unwarranted optimism can persist far longer than cooler heads deem possible. Hedge fund leverage, for instance, is allegedly back to pre-crisis highs.
Read more...As New Jersey governor Chris Christie found out the hard way, saying bad things about union pensions at the wrong times can lead to egg on one’s face and higher costs to taxpayers. From Bloomberg:
Read more...Thanks to Minyanville for publicizing this study by MindfulMoney on the nature and reach of social conversations in the investment arena. But even bigger thanks go to loyal readers and contributors for their frequent comments, leads, and critiques. The success of a blog depends on its community and I am very grateful for all the input so many of you have generously provided.
Perhaps the most interesting finding (boldface ours):
Read more...The research confirms the existence of a network of investment super-connectors with extraordinary media influence and reach. These super-connected new influentials are, for the most part, not well established voices in the media but individual bloggers who fiercely champion their independence….In the US, the network functions as the unofficial voice of Wall Street & the US federal bank with no mainstream media players at the centre of the network.
One of the noteworthy features of 2007 was a pronounced divergence in sentiment between the bond and stock markets, with the credit indices sending out warning signals while equities continued to soar higher. This is hardly surprising; an old joke is that the bond market predicted 9 of the last 4 recessions.
We are seeing the same type of divergence again, this time in European bank stocks. And if the credit worry warts are correct, this could be a harbinger of bigger shocks.
Read more...There has been an interesting lack of commentary on an effort underway by Newt Gingrich and his allies to enable state governments to declare bankruptcy as a way to slash pension obligations, and given the lack of mention of other creditors, perhaps only pension obligations.
The latest sighting was via an article today in Pensions & Investments:
Read more...The party line is everything is fine in bank land….even Eurobank land. But some recent developments suggest otherwise.
The business news on Europe has pretty much daily updates on the unfolding and linked sovereign debt/ bank solvency crisis. The officialdom insists this looming problem can be resolved but most observers think it can’t be in the absence of a fiscal union, which is a political bridge too far right now.
In a not-widely-noticed replay of pre-crisis conditions, the cost of swapping euros into dollars to the same high level observed last May, when sovereign crisis fears were at a peak.
Read more...
