A fair number of policy commentators are hewing to the view that somehow the EU will cobble together some sort of solution to the Greek fiscal mess because the alternatives look vasty worse. As Paul Krugman noted: Now what? A breakup of the euro is very nearly unthinkable, as a sheer matter of practicality. As […]
Read more...As readers no doubt know all too well, the market premium versus safer ones contracts in robust times and widens in downturns. And since credit markets typically signal downturns months before the equity markets, junk bonds are one place to look for advance warnings of changes in economic fortunes (albeit with a risk of false […]
Read more...I saw this item on RGE Monitor (Nouriel Roubini’s blog/economic analysis website) and was gobsmacked: Greetings from RGE! A couple months ago, in a widely read FT op-ed, Nouriel Roubini warned that the “mother of all carry trades,” one funded in U.S. dollar denominated debt, could pump up asset bubbles around the world… When uncovered […]
Read more...By Bruce Krasting, a former foreign exchange and derivatives trader and hedge fund manager. Mohammad said, “One cannot foretell the future”. I think he was on to something. What looks predictable rarely happens. There are always surprises. I have been tripped up so many times. The following are not predictions of things that will happen. […]
Read more...By Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns I am not sure I buy Meredith Whitney’s assertion that the government is “out of bullets” in its quest to prop up the economy. It’s a matter of political will more than anything else. Nevertheless, I do agree with her basic premise in the CNBC video below that the […]
Read more...Reader Andrew sent a research report by Pivot Capital Management, which makes a compelling case that the capital spending bubble in China has reached its limits. This is important in a narrow sense, since capital investment is now the largest component of Chinese growth, and in its broader ramifications, since China is seen as a […]
Read more...For the record, I actually do NOT like it when markets fall apart, even when I anticipate it and am correctly positioned for it (2007 and 2008). It’s very upsetting to watch. Every savvy investor I know has been expecting a mild to meaningful correction. So independent of its seriousness, the Dubai World frisson could […]
Read more...The press becomes more surreal with every passing day. If we didn’t all have a stake in the outcomes, this would make for great theater. First we have the absurd spectacle of bankers claiming that they are doing God’s work. Great! Then they should be willing to do it for free. I don’t recall the […]
Read more...By George Washington of Washington’s Blog. Investors are basically rational, right? In fact, as many studies have demonstrated, the answer is no. But instead of wading through all of the investment psychology research, let’s look at research into people’s basic reasoning abilities. Bear with me for a minute. A study in an area unrelated to […]
Read more...By Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns Christopher Wood, the well-noted market strategist at CLSA and writer of the classic Japan crash warning book “The Bubble Economy,” is now warning of a market correction in the West. According to CNBC India, Wood believes that the markets’ extreme upward move is increasing the chances of a major […]
Read more...Nouriel Roubini has officially left the “hedging your bets on the economy” camp. He has declared the markets to be frothy because super low dollar borrowing rates have turned the greenback into the funding currency for the carry trade. Far more important than the peppy rally in the stock market is the resumption of early […]
Read more...Wolfgang Munchau has a solid, thoughtful piece at the Financial Times which argues that the widely applauded rallies in stock and commodity markets are already looking very much like bubbles, and the efforts to contend with them (either directly, or as a result of the need to start reining in liquidity) is likely to kick […]
Read more...I suppose one might classify the logic here as a tactical loss to secure a long-term gain, or in chess terms, sacrificing a pawn to take the queen. So get this: the Republicans (well, to be more accurate, House Minority Leader John Boehner, but we’ll treat him as a good proxy) are really really unhappy […]
Read more...Oooh, I can take only so much double-speak in a single sitting. The object lesson today is a Reuters article reporting on a Larry Summers speech, “Obama policies averted economic “abyss”: Summers.” Let us not forget that “Obama policies” in this case are “Larry Summers policies.” Obama has never displayed much interest in economics; he […]
Read more...Bloomberg reports that former Harvard Fund Management CEO, now Pimco CEO Mohammed El-Erian does not buy the idea that US is returning to normal any time soon. El-Erian in particular took issue with some of Larry Summers’ sunnier prognostications: El-Erian likened Summers’s view of the economy to a three- stage rocket attempting to escape Earth’s […]
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