Frank Veneroso is skeptical that a downturn of this magnitude could be nearing an end as soon as the markets seem to believe. He parses the data and investor psychology. Another useful take comes at the Financial Times, where John Authers interviews bear market expert Russell Napier. Opt Publish at Scribd or explore others:
Read more...The WHO has designated swine flu an “imminent” pandemic, and raised its alert to a level 5 out of a possible 6. The World Bank guesstimates the cost of a severe pandemic at 4.8% of world GDP (yikes!). Yet the US had a very nice day for equity investors yesterday, and the Japanese stockmarket is […]
Read more...As readers probably know all too well, we are in the middle of another period of eroding confidence, frazzled nerves, and risk aversion. Equities have taken a tumble, with losses on the S&P today flirting with 4% after a 4.5% fall last week. Bloomberg reports that traders are increasingly looking to buy longer term downside […]
Read more...Economy could begin to recover in April, claims Gordon Brown Telegraph. Subhead: “The economy could begin to recover as early as April 2, Gordon Brown has signaled.” If by “recover” one means “temporarily looks as if it is no longer getting worse,” even I might agree that is possible. From Merrill Lynch’s Fund Manager Survey […]
Read more...I am the first to say that I do not understand the whims of the market, but today we saw a pretty schizophrenic display. Attention in the US focused on the Fed’s Open Market Committee statement. Earlier this week, not much was expected, since the Fed is somewhat constrained by fact that the Obama team […]
Read more...The 30 year Treasury bond has fallen from roughly 140 to its current level of 125-ish, so absent an intensification of deflation worries, one might surmise that at least some of the air has come out of the Treasury bond bubble. One might also take the view that the Chinese played this one astutely (or […]
Read more...This blog from time to time has commented on deteriorating economic conditions in China, and expressed the view that the slowdown is likely to be worse than most mainstream forecasters have anticipated (although the projections are now being revised downward). That sort of post has often lead to reader comments that a lower level of […]
Read more...I assume readers know that I am a pretty skeptical sort, and don’t expect a lasting stock market recovery until the fat lady sings (as Barry Ritholtz pointed out, in the dot-bomb bear market, the stock market did NOT anticipate economic recovery, but rallied after the economy had started to turn). But as the Great […]
Read more...The latest edition of Marc Faber’s latest newsletter fell off two separate trucks in my ‘hood, and I thought the most useful bits were Faber’s observations (honed from many years of seeing the world from Asia) that just because a market has gone down a ton doesn’t mean it can’t go down a great deal […]
Read more...No, the headline above is not goofy, and I presume it did get your attention. In a concise and suitably critical piece, Floyd Norris of the New York Times tells us that the corporate dividends paid in the seemingly good years depended far more on bank largess than was widely realized. And as credit is […]
Read more...A useful piece at the Wall Street Journal discusses the poor prospects for the US banking industry, which will in aggregate post a fourth quarter loss despite heroic interventions by the Fed and Treasury. The article makes much of recent and almost-certain-to-get-worse bank credit losses as the economy continues to deteriorate. Commercial real estate vacancies, […]
Read more...I was quite taken with this post of our occasional guest blogger Cassandra (who holds forth at Cassandra Does Tokyo). I hope you enjoy it as well. From Cassandra: Thumbing through the sell-side research from their multitudes of Strategists, I notice some recurring phrases, small and innocuous as they may be, that trouble me. Time […]
Read more...The most accurate banking analyst, Meredith Whitney, has warned that banks are likely to continue to restrict consumer credit, particularly if reforms to end “gotcha” practices, like universal default and double-cycle billing, are implemented. Credit card issuers shifted their model away from one where they earned a reasonable return from all types of customers – […]
Read more...A story on Bloomberg, “Q Ratio Signals ‘Horrific’ Market Bottom, CLSA Says,” argues that the global equity market bottom will be well below the recent lows, but also thinks we may not see it until 2014 as the current pump priming measures hold off deflationary pressures for a while. Note that Gary Shilling, who was […]
Read more...Conventional wisdom is that the plunge in commodities was due in part to the deflating of a speculative bubble, the balance the result of the nasty contraction now in full force. Once things recover, basic materials should enjoy a strong rebound as China and other emerging markets get back on the growth path. Comparisons to […]
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