I have set you up to misinterpret that headline, but that’s OK.
I know that sophisticated modern finance people are not supposed to believe in technical trading. It’s sort of like believing in astrology. Yet pretty much every serious investor I know pays attention to it, even if it is not a major factor in their trading decisions. And I did briefly have my money with one brilliant obsessive technical trader who does not have a fund, just manages money for a very few people he knows. He is known among traders rather than among real people. He trades only technically, waits for a bunch of signals to converge. That means he watches the markets as intently as any trader and does 4-8 trades a year, big bets only on extreme signals. He missed a trade thanks a screw up at the firm I was using, and straightening that out made him miss executing the trade for others, and given how few trades he does, that made him very unhappy, so that was the end of that.
So I have been trained not to believe in technical trading, and it looks like a ton of work, and you have to really like trading, which I don’t particularly. But I do have a few technically oriented types in my RSS reader, an admittedly idiosyncratic selection. I like Jesse’s S&P charts because I can understand them (show major resistance and support, always useful to keep in mind) and then there is Ben Bitroff who is colorful and to the point, and Ariel at Unbiased Trading, who looks at quite a few approaches and is very measured.
And then there is the Buff Technician. Tom Chechatka of The Risk Averse Alert. He even said something snarky about NC quite a while ago (and I was reading him before that), so it was a bit disappointing, but this isn’t an investment site, so I can see why it might not be his taste.
The reason I give him credit is his sometimes oracular stance, he does clearly weigh the risks, and tells readers when he puts positions on. He was early in calling the March rally, but also was very clear in saying it would be a monster (I recall “melt up” was his turn of phrase), I will admit I have not been able to check in as often, but he went short a little while ago and I have not seen him reverse his position (but I could have missed it). He seems to think a top is nigh, but today’s action says it might not be as imminent as he believed.
As Taleb loves to rant, any effort to predict the future from the past is flawed, but it seems to be human nature to try regardless.