The well-regarded Nouriel Roubini of RGE Monitor thinks it might. He picks up on the themes we’ve discussed earlier, particularly the severity of the subprime mortgage market contraction (these are loans made to particularly weak borrowers, which therefor e command higher interest rates). Roubini comments on what he regards as an unusual feature of this […]
Read more...The stockmarket today posted another new high, yet the drip, drip, drip of less than cheery economic and political news continues (or have market participants forgotten that governments are bigger than they are?). But the markets focus on whatever good news there is, and the spectacle of Bernanke reassuring Congress also soothed, perhaps anesthetized, investors. […]
Read more...An informative article in the current Economist on the dangers and economic distortion created by the carry trade, a topic we’ve discussed. On a massive scale, investors, typically hedge funds, are borrowing in yen, a currency with very low borrowing costs, and investing in currencies where the interest rates are high, like the New Zealand […]
Read more...No, we don’t mean the end of the world, but the end of this credit cycle. An aside: forgive us if you found some of our posts last week sketchier than usual. We’re at a location with very erratic broadband, which makes it hard to get anything Internet-related done efficiently. We’ve run a few comments […]
Read more...Here’s some lighter fare, but in keeping with post above, from Minyanville via Barry Ritzhold’s The Big Picture: Once upon a time there was a family of three bears, a mama bear, a papa bear and a baby bear. This family of bears lived in a quiet cottage in the woods. One day, waiting for […]
Read more...An informative and troubling post from Barry Ritzholtz at The Big Picture that picks up on themes we’ve discussed earlier, namely excessive liquidity, a widespread cavalier attitude towards risk, historically low levels of volatility despite a less-than-rosy geopolitical setting: Surprisingly strong words out of Merrill: “Merrill Lynch has warned of a global credit crunch as […]
Read more...Readers may have noticed that we have a soft spot in our heart for negative news about the economy. That’s because the business and popular press dwell on the postive and give short shrift to the other side (with the exception of the Financial Times). So we have a tense geopolitical climate, global warming looking […]
Read more...This excellent post in Barry Ritzholtz’s The Big Picture was prompted in part by Alan Abelson’s article, “Spendthrift Nation,” in today’s Barron’s. The key point is that consumers spent more than they made for two years running, 2005 and 2006. The last time this happened was in the depths of the Depression. Yesterday, DF asked […]
Read more...We have been featured a lot of discouraging reports about the markets of late. Just so you know that we are open to new information, here is a positive indicator, which was reported in Seeking Alpha: Birinyi’s Ticker Sense submits: Regular readers of our research will know that we often cite various indicators to track […]
Read more...We have been hard on the Journal for its tendency to politicize news coverage and omit stories that point to systemic financial risk. So we would like to give credit to the Journal when credit is due. This morning, the Wall Street Journal had a first page story on the stock market mania in China, […]
Read more...A post from Mark Thoma’s Economist’s View, “Will the Euro Replace the Dollar?,” is useful and informative, but I am surprised that Thoma didn’t mention developemnts that confirm the authors’ thesis, namely, that the euro is becoming a competitor for the dollar as a reserve currency: Some countries that have been key providers of capital […]
Read more...While this topic may seem a bit esoteric to some readers, it is just about the most simple-minded trade in the financial markets, which is precisely why so many players are involved in it. You borrow in a currency that has low prevailing interest rates, like the yen, and invest in instruments in a currency […]
Read more...We’ve taken note of excessive optimism and leverage (see, as examples, “The Rising Tide of Liquidity” and “More Signs of a Toppy Market“). Now the European Central Bank is also sounding cautionary notes. Ever since Alan Greenspan’s famous “irrational exuberance” observation produced a 140 point (then 2%) fall in the Dow, central bankers have been […]
Read more...We’ve commented from time to time on loose credit conditions (see our “Rising Tide of Liquidity“, plus Part 2 and Part 3 on the same topic) and indifference to risk (“Where Has the (Perception of) Risk Gone?“). The tide may be turning. Today, the New York Times had a lengthy, well researched article, “Tremors at […]
Read more...We have pointed out various signs of complacency in financial markets regarding risk: declining credit spreads (January 16), a lack of concern about systemically high use of leverage (previous post plus January 18), and technical indications that suggest we are near a stock market peak (January 22). Yet there is an almost irrationally high level […]
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