By Marshall Auerback, a portfolio strategist and hedge fund manager. Cross posted from New Economic Perspectives
Here’s the draft of the supposed agreement to “sort out” the Greek debt problem once and for all. According to Bloomberg, here are the essentials:
Read more...By Philip Pilkington, a writer and journalist based in Dublin, Ireland
While I was writing on the unsustainability of the haircut deals yesterday, the peripheral bond markets in Europe rallied. My argument was that when other countries started getting uppity and demanding haircuts, European government bond investors would slowly but surely come to realise that they were the ones on the end of the hook and that politicians didn’t give a damn about them. This would eventually result in their piling out of the bond markets, sending yields into the stratosphere. The ECB would then be forced to step in and buy up bonds in the secondary market – or perhaps do something even more responsible, who knows?
Read more...A little birdie sent me some settlement details. You can see how much little your state got.
As readers may know by now, 49 of 50 states have agreed to join the so-called mortgage settlement, with Oklahoma the lone refusenik. Although the fine points are still being hammered out, various news outlets (New York Times, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal) have details, with Dave Dayen’s overview at Firedoglake the best thus far.
Read more...By Philip Pilkington, a writer and journalist based in Dublin, Ireland
Read more...Civilization begins with order, grows with liberty and dies with chaos
– Will Durant
After the German-French council of ministers in Paris, Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Nicolas Sarkozy gave a joint TV interview at the Elysée Palace, the official residence of the French president. Merkel berated François Hollande, Sarkozy’s top challenger in the upcoming presidential election. Then Sarkozy lashed out against him. Never before had a German chancellor campaigned so hard for a French president.
Read more...News stories in American Banker, the Wall Street Journal, and now Huffington Post all indicate that New York and California will join the so-called mortgage settlement deal. From Loren Berlin at Huffington Post:
Read more...Wired’s Joel Johnson has written a stunning bit of PR for Foxconn, now-controversial supplier to the consumer electronics industry, duly wrapped in credibility-enhancing guilt over Western materialism.
The article, “1 Million Workers. 90 Million iPhones. 17 Suicides. Who’s to Blame?” pretends to be about Foxconn’s factories. But Johnson admits he’s a tech toy writer who apparently has no knowledge of manufacturing. Yet he’s remarkably uninhibited in using his fantasies and abject ignorance as a basis for making sweeping generalizations about the Taiwanese powerhouse. For instance:
Read more...The Administration, through the nominal head of the bank settlement negotiations, Iowa attorney general Tom Miller, has moved its final deadline for a deal yet again, this time to Thursday.
One event of the day was a non-event. New York AG Eric Schneiderman has scheduled a conference call to the media on the settlement for 6 PM, then postponed it indefinitely 10 minutes before the scheduled time. One can presume that whatever he had intended to say was rendered moot by events…but what events? The only thing one can infer is that he is presumably still negotiating. Per Reuters (hat tip Lambert):
Read more...By Marshall Auerback, a portfolio strategist and hedge fund manager. Cross posted from New Economic Perspectives
Another day andthe markets remain fixated on whether Greece comes to a “voluntary” arrangement with its creditors. The key word is“voluntary” because the myth of “voluntary compliance has to be sustained so that those deadly credit default swaps avoid being triggered.
But let’s face it: Greece is a pimple. If the rest of the euro zone could cut itlose with a minimum of systemic risk, Athens would have long gone the way of Troy. The real issue is whether the credit default swaps trigger such a huge mess with the counterparties that it creates renewed systemic stress which more than offsets the benefits to the holders of the CDSs.
The more interesting question is: suppose Greece finally does get a deal?
Read more...“Linda Greene” has become a household word to those on the foreclosure fraud beat. And it turns out, for once, that the work of diligent investigators such as the foreclosure attorneys around Max Gardner, and investigators like Lynn Szymoniak and Lisa Epstein led to press coverage which in turn spurred prosecutors to act.
What is striking about the indictment by a Missouri grand jury is that the Missouri AG Chris Koster has decided to challenge the banks’ party line that robosigning and related abuses were mere “paperwork problems.” He’s called robosiging what it is: forgery.
Read more...The Administration had thrown its weight behind getting the mortgage settlement deal done shortly after the State of the Union address. Eric Schneiderman joining a Federal task force that seemed unlikely to accomplish much, given its staffing and the history of Federal investigations, seemed to secure it getting done, as Schneiderman, the de facto leader of the opposition, moved first into a neutral stance and then rejoined the talks over the weekend.
The deadline had been first set as February 6, then moved to the 3rd, then late last week moved back to its original date. There was no announcement of a pact today, which in and of itself would not necessarily mean that things might be going pear-shaped. After all, the participants could be wrangling over fine points.
A fresh Reuters report indicates that the Administration messaging and cheerleading (witness the Shaun Donovan interview reported by Dave Dayen and Shahien Nasiripour) may have been ahead of events.
Read more...By Daniel Alpert, the founding Managing Partner of Westwood Capital. Cross posted from EconoMonitor
While we may be hours away from a partial (and certainly a stopgap) agreement in the talks among the Greek government, the troika and private sector creditors, it is doubtful that a deal will emerge in a fully constructed fashion that will survive its application in the real economy.
It is likely that the only common view amongst participants in the various talks is a desire to try to avoid a disorderly default. Beyond that there is a severe disconnect fostered by parallel realities that seem unable to intersect. Accordingly, a deal that can hold up both in the streets of Greece and in the markets is both illusive and unlikely. Here’s why I think so.
Recently I have had opportunities to meet with and question senior members of the economics establishment within the German government and the broader German intelligentsia. Our meetings were held under Chatham House rules so I can’t name names, but – after several meetings with policy delegations from Germany over the past 60 days – I am prepared to sum up what appears to be the pretty-universally-held German policy position as follows (my apologies if the below evidences some degree of frustration – but these encounters leave me quite chagrined):
Read more...lambert strether is an old school blogger from Corrente.
Last week in Part I of this piece, I argued that Obama’s recent State of The Union speech endorsed a particular model of military organization named the “warrior ethos” by its DOD developers, and that this ethos and American soldier’s oath of enlistment (10 U.S.C. § 502) were in contradiction. That is, one can treat the “mission” and the “team” as primary, or the Constitution and the UCMJ as primary, but not both. Ethos is one thing; the rule of law another, and in the SOTU Obama, by focusing exclusively on the first, rejected the second — and not merely for the military, but for civil society also, since the SOTU posits that the warrior ethos should apply to all citizens, not only soldiers.
Obama’s rejection of the rule of law should surprise nobody who has been following his administration’s failure to prosecute bank executives for accounting control fraud, his abolition of due process when assassinating U.S. citizens, or his vote, while still a candidate, to grant retroactive immunity to the telcos for felonies committed during the program of warrantless surveillance initiated by the Bush administration.
Read more...By Cathy O’Neil, a data scientist who lives in New York City and writes at mathbabe.org
A study recently came out which was entitled “Can stereotype threat explain the gender gap in mathematics performance and achievement?”. One of the authors created and posted a video describing the paper, which you can view here.
As a preview, there seem to be four main points of the paper and the video:
1. The papers on stereotype threat normalize with respect to SAT scores which is bad.
2. Evidence for stereotype threat is therefore weak.
3. We should therefore stop putting all of our resources into combating stereotype threat.
4. We should instead do something easy like combating stereotypes themselves.
I will first address a meta -issue and a blog discussion related to this paper, and then will argue directly against the paper and its conclusions.
Read more...