Category Archives: Politics

The Eurobanks’ Latest Scheme to Escape the Pain of Recapitalization: Pull More Financial Firms into the TBTF Complex

As much as I like to think I have a reasonably active imagination, it never ceases to amaze me how a bad situation can easily become worse.

Readers probably know the European authorities have been stunningly late to wake up to the fact that EU banks are undercapitalized, apparently being the only ones to believe their PR exercise known as a stress test. The banks’ options would seem to be limited. One is to raise more equity, which is kinda difficult now since no one is terribly keen about banks in general, and the ones in most need of more capital are the least attractive. Second is to let existing loans roll off. The authorities don’t like that idea, since less lending will increase downward economic pressures. And since bank CEO pay is correlated with size of institution, the banksters aren’t too keen about that either. Third is to cut pay to help accelerate earning their way out. You can guess how likely that is to happen. Last is to suffer state-assisted recapitalization, which under EU rules, would be a draconian exercise.

But never fear, the financiers have an “innovative” way around this problem. And this innovation is a remarkably destructive idea. From the Financial Times:

Philip Pilkington: My European Nightmare – An Infernal Hurricane Gathers?

By Philip Pilkington, a journalist and writer living in Dublin, Ireland

The infernal hurricane that never rests
Hurtles the spirits onward in its rapine;
Whirling them round, and smiting, it molests them.

– Dante, The Divine Comedy

Every now and then a terrible thought enters my mind. It runs like this: what if the theatre of the Eurocrisis is really and truly a political power-game being cynically played by politicians from the core while the periphery burns?

Yes, of course, we can engage in polemic and say that such is the case. But in doing so we are trying to stoke emotion and generally allowing our rhetorical flourish to carry the argument. At least, that is what I thought. I had heard this rhetoric; I had engaged in it to some extent myself; but I had never really believed it. Only once or twice, in my nightmares, I had thought that, maybe, just maybe, it might have some truth.

And then the Financial Times published this ‘strictly confidential’ document leaked to them from within the Eurostructure. That is when my nightmare started becoming increasingly real.

Eurozone Rescue Going Off the Rails

In the runup to the crisis, it was striking to read the undertone of worry in quite a few of the articles in the Financial Times, and I don’t mean only Gillian Tett’s fixation on collateralized debt obligations. It was palpable that a lot of writers were uncomfortable with how frothy the markets were, yet couldn’t say anything too much at odds with what their largely cheerleading sources were telling them.

Even though the overall mood at this juncture is far more downbeat, there is again a reporting gap between the pink paper and the two major US print business outlets, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times on the expected crisis nexus, the Eurozone.

Marx Versus Capitalism Versus You

By Sell on News, a macro equities analyst. Cross posted from MacroBusiness

It is a measure of how un-self critical modern economics has been, that the Marxists are starting to appear to be making the most sense of the current crises. The supine acceptance that “the market is always right” — a truism only to traders and vested interests — means that there has been precious little understanding developed about how markets can go wrong. Or what is wrong, as well as right, with markets and the modern practices of capitalism. An article in the London Review of Books came to my attention recently by Benjamin Kunkel that shows how Marxist analysis is actually looking quite pertinent to the current mess.

Mirabile Dictu! Eurozone to Impose Penalties on Banks That Get Bailouts

Is the bank bailout free lunch coming to an end? While I would not hold my breath, given that financiers have proven quite skilled at watering down proposed reforms to thin gruel, a story from the Financial Times indicates that Eurozone leaders are no longer willing to give banks handouts with no strings attached.

Gaddafi’s Murder And International Law

This is an informative and sobering video by Real News Network on the extrajudical Nato/US killing of Gaddafi. This interview gives some background on what the US interests were and why Gaddafi, who for the previous five years had generally been a cooperative client, became a target.

NYC Residents: Please Attend 6:00 PM Meeting Today to Bar Real Estate Board Plan to Block #OccupyWallStreet Protests

So the top 1% now want to revoke the Constitution, it appears, or at least the right to public assembly. This story ran earlier in the week on WNYC:

Quelle Surprise! GAO Finds the Fed is a Club of Backscratching, Well Connected, White Bankers

The GAO released a report yesterday that provided some anodyne but nevertheless useful confirmation of many of the things most of us knew or strongly suspected about the Fed: it’s a club of largely white male corporate insiders who do a bit too many favors for each other. But the GAO seemed peculiarly to fail to understand some basic shortcomings of its investigation.

Eurozone Leaders Ready €80 Billion Band-Aid for Banking Industry Gunshot Wound

I must confess I don’t stay on top of the blow by blow of the ever-devolving Eurozone mess. The broad lines of the trajectory look all too predictable. The officialdom could patch up things for quite a while if the powers that be let the ECB monetize the debt (eventually, you could have an inflation problem, but with the EU and global economy so slack, “eventually” will take quite a while to show up).

However,everyone in positions of authority seems to believe in certain-to-fail-much-faster austerity instead. So the permissible short-to-medium term fixes involves lots of complicated programs, multi-party negotiations, and in some cases, political approvals. The timeline for the governmental maneuvering seems badly out of line with what Mr. Market requires. And to make matters worse, an earlier deal on a Greek funding, which involved bondholders taking a 21% haircut, is now deemed not to be punitive enough to banks. While that is narrowly true, having this deal come unglued could be the detonator that sets off a crisis chain reaction.

And from a wider vantage, none of these remedies address the real issue

Latest Attorney General Bailout Plan: Give Banks “Get Out of Jail Free” Card for a Few Refis

Attorney General Tom Miller of Iowa, who is leading the whitewash once known as the 50 state attorney mortgage settlement negotiations (7 have defected), reliably, every few weeks, has gotten word to the media that a deal is weeks away. This has been going on so long that it is easy to ignore it, particularly since the absence of key states is going to reduce the importance of any settlement being reached.

Note we’ve been skeptics of a deal happening unless the AGs capitulated on a release of liability. And that is the latest plan.

We have a combo plate of stories, one in the Wall Street Journal yesterday morning and a further critical tidbit from Reuters this evening that together give an overview of Miller’s latest effort to push a deal over the goal line. The latest idea is as bad as we feared.

Attorney General Beau Biden on Investigating the Mortgage Mess

The Dylan Ratigan show is on a roll this week. The program today included a segment with one of our heros, Delaware attorney general Beau Biden, who was early to join New York’s Eric Schneiderman in questioning the now less than 50 state attorney general mortgage settlement. He also joined the FDIC, Schneiderman and a large number of investors in objecting to a proposed $8.5 billion mortgage settlement by Bank of America.

Biden makes a clear and concise statement of the major issues:

Bank of America Deathwatch: Moves Risky Derivatives from Holding Company to Taxpayer-Backstopped Depository

If you have any doubt that Bank of America is going down, this development should settle it. I’m late to this important story broken this morning by Bob Ivry of Bloomberg, but both Bill Black (who I interviewed just now) and I see this as a desperate move by Bank of America’s management, a de facto admission that they know the bank is in serious trouble.