Bloomberg informs us that the FDIC has released data showing that mortgages over 90 days past rose over 36% from second quarter last year to second quarter this year, the biggest rise since 1991. This report is troubling in two regards. First, the last big spike occurred in the 1991 recession, which was a nasty, […]
Read more...The Bush Administration, which resisted proposals to have Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy more mortgages to alleviate stress in the housing markets, is instead looking to the Federal Home Administration, which traditionally has provided insurance to low and middle income mortgages, to help troubled borrowers. But if you believe the data in the Wall […]
Read more...We may be having a housing, as opposed to a market news, day. That would be progress of a sort. More evidence that the US in entering a housing recession, as opposed to suffering a mere subprime problem. From the Wall Street Journal: Mortgage defaults were roiling the thrift industry even before the recent turmoil […]
Read more...Courtesy Paul Kedrosky at Infectious Greed comes this chart that shows over time how renters’ reasons for becoming home owners has changed. While this is a UK sample, given the similarities in the two cultures, and the runup in property values on both sides of the Atlantic, it’s not hard to imagine that a US […]
Read more...Gillian Tett, in “Credit compass fails to work,” in the Financial Times, uses the woes suffered by monoline insurers such as MBIA and Ambac to illustrate that in our current subprime/housing credit crisis, nobody is sure where the dead bodies lie, which makes everyone suspect. Monoline insurers provide credit guarantees for securities. They have come […]
Read more...Even though the Fed cut the discount rate to 5.75%, and more important, said it was concerned about risks to growth, asset backed commercial paper, which is the epicenter of the credit shock, is being placed at newly high yields: 5.99%, which is now above the discount rate. And remember, not only has the Fed […]
Read more...Given how extraordinary the Fed’s half point (not mere quarter point) discount rate cut of this morning was, and how the markets had been clamoring for it, you’d think we’d see more of a bounce in the Dow than the mere 160 ish points it is up as of this writing (that has come to […]
Read more...Paul Krugman, in this morning’s New York Times, tells us (subscription required) that mortgage borrowers in the US are feeling a world of hurt. The pain is moving up the food chain beyond stressed subprime borrowers into the Alt-A pool (which truth be told, never was much better than subprime, so this development was widely […]
Read more...Nouriel Roubini, on his RGE Monitor, discusses the distinction between risk (variability in outcomes that can be estimated) and uncertainty (unknown or unmeasurable outcomes). Risk can be priced; uncertainty can’t (or at least can’t be priced by rational agents). Roubini argues that part of the panic in the markets stems from the fact that investors […]
Read more...Apparently residential real estate speculation is not over. Or at least some parties are sufficiently confident that it isn’t over as to establish a business based on the premise that there are greater fools still out there. The Springwise (“new business ideas for entrepreneurial minds”) newsletter leads with this choice item: A new online marketplace […]
Read more...Although it hasn’t gotten much press coverage, Fitch for some time (see here and here) has been warning of lax lending practices in commercial real estate that sound disconcertingly similar to what we’ve seen in subprime. From a July story in the Wall Street Journal: In a report yesterday, Fitch Ratings said the fervid lending […]
Read more...This is priceless. The Wall Street Journal, in a page one story, “How Rating Firms’ Calls Fueled Subprime Mess,” tells us that rating agencies might have had more than a little bit to do with the problems in subprime. This is a new item? A page one news item? It would be a bigger news […]
Read more...When it rains, it pours. Here many hedge funds are braced for investor redemptions today, just when some banks are starting to refuse to lend against subprime holdings. Now this story isn’t as dramatic as it might seem. It appears that only a few banks have stopped lending against subprime-related debt. And the ones named, […]
Read more...Bloomberg reports that analysts at Sanford Bernstein estimate that Citi will suffer up to $3 billion in losses this quarter due to subprime and LBOs writeoffs: The New York-based company may lose between $1.2 billion and $1.5 billion on loans to buyout firms and between $500 million and $1 billion on subprime mortgages in the […]
Read more...The news item of the morning (aside from the markets suffering a loss of confidence) is that BNP Paribas has blocked withdrawals from three funds that had an aggregate of $2.2 billion in assets, which had fallen by 20% in a mere two weeks. Note that this action is not the direct result of subprime […]
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