World Champion Axe Thrower Marcus Pehart in Freestyle Mode
[🪓 Soulthrower]pic.twitter.com/zLevb91JPv
— Massimo (@Rainmaker1973) June 12, 2026
The best children’s museums in the U.S. Quartz
The Anti-Aging Therapeutics Boom Contrary Research
Camera Trap in Tiny ‘Sacred Forest’ Caught One of the World’s Rarest Mammals ZME Science
Ozempic and Similar Drugs Linked to Dramatic Drop in Addiction Rates SciTech Daily
COVID-19/Pandemics
Data is not enough: from Covid to measles, America must relearn risk communication The Guardian
Common Diabetes Drug May Reduce Long COVID Risk Technology Networks
Climate/Environment
A Commercial Space Race Prompts a Thorny Question: Who Owns the Sky? Inside Climate News
SpaceX Made a Public Land Swap Deal with USFWS. Now Environmental Groups Are Suing Outdoor Life
France prepares for another ‘very intense and widespread’ heat event, possibly over 40°C Le Monde
South of the Border
Can Cuba resist America? UnHerd
US kills leader of Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua gang in airstrike, Trump says BBC
‘Knife’s edge’: US-Mexico relationship teeters as World Cup begins Politico
China?
The Unstoppable Rise of China’s Auto Empire: From Underdog to Global Dominator
Watch this chart animate the seismic shift that’s reshaping the world economy.
In 2014, China exported under 1 million cars annually, barely a blip while Japan, Germany, and the US dominated with 4+… pic.twitter.com/YCLiWMIyq9
— Alvin Foo (@alvinfoo) June 7, 2026
The world is addicted to cheap Chinese drugs Inside China/Business substackThe China collapse that just never arrives Asia Times
China’s green power met all growth in electricity demand in 2025 CGTN
FACTBOX – World’s 1st wind-powered underwater data center in China Andolu Agency
India
Mountain of war: The India-Pakistan conflict’s deadliest battle Al Jazeera
Why India wants German submarines DW
The US and India have become regional rivals Nepali Times
Africa
Can Africa turn its population boom into prosperity? Al Jazeera
Mining for ‘clean energy’ metals driving widespread forest loss in Africa, study finds Technology.org
Africa Loses Billions to Illicit Financial Flows as Climate Finance Falls Short, Experts Warn The Reporter
European Disunion
Dreams of an EU army just crashed Brussels Signal
Backlash against Kallas reveals hard truths of EU foreign policy Euronews
EU countries approve starting membership talks with Ukraine, Moldova Politico
Old Blighty
UK defense secretary’s ugly exit shatters Starmer’s legacy The Spokesman-Review
Why Brexit Still Haunts British Politics Time Magazine
Israel v. Gaza, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, Iran
Horrifying: The Israeli military has released footage documenting the extensive destruction it carried out in the town of Aitaroun in southern Lebanon. pic.twitter.com/0fp4YOA3iv
— Days of Palestine (@PalestineDays) June 13, 2026
Israel carries out air strikes on Lebanon, state media says, as Iran claims deal with US near BBCAmnesty calls for Israel boycott over aggression in the occupied West Bank Al Jazeera
Israel expanding Gaza ‘yellow line’ to derail ceasefire talks, says Hamas Andolu Agency
Under The Western Empire You Get Punished For Having A Conscience Caitlin Johnstone
New Not-So-Cold War
FO Talks: Has the Trump Administration Abandoned Ukraine Due to the Iran War? Fair Observer
Ukraine’s defense firms split themselves up to avoid being a big target. Europe now needs to do the same, they say. Business Insider
Putin admits Ukraine attacks hitting Russian economy, society Al Jazeera
Big Brother Is Watching You Watch
South Portland ends license plate reader contract amid growing privacy concerns WGME 13
Opinion: Automotive Privacy Has Become a Dismal Prospect TheTruthAboutCars.com
Imperial Collapse Watch
Video shows homeless people sleeping at LAX as World Cup 2026 fans touch down NY Post
Is Seattle sweeping more homeless camps for the World Cup? KUOW.org
Trump 2.0
Trump says peace deal will be signed Sunday after Iran said it remains cautious on timing CNBC
In the steel cage: Understanding that UFC is Trump’s happy place Responsible Statecraft
The Air Force One 747 That Qatar Gifted To Trump Is Getting Its Finishing Touches Jalopnik
Trump’s name removed from the Kennedy Center building following court-ordered deadline PBS
Musk Matters
Interview discussing design of orbital data center satellites
How Elon Musk nailed the SpaceX IPO: ‘I’m not sure that this could have gone much better’ MarketWatch
Democrat Death Watch
The Democrats’ 2024 “Autopsy” and the Party’s Refusal to Halt Weapons to Israel Scheerpost
Why Won’t the Cowardly, Corrupt Democratic Leadership Act to Impeach Trump? Common Dreams
Immigration
Trump Signs $70 Billion Immigration Enforcement Funding Bill KABC.com
‘Surge’ may be over, but administration’s deportation push continues in immigration court Mankato Free Press
Our No Longer Free Press
‘Open season’: Trump admin’s two-pronged attack could devastate Disney’s ABC Raw Story
Trump team investigates how to deport major Iran war critic The New Republic
Mr. Market Is Moody
The Stock Market Survived the SpaceX IPO. What to Watch for Next. Barron’s
Wholesale Inflation Surges, Energy Costs See Biggest Jump Since 2022 InkFreeNews
After a Year of High Tariffs, the US Goods Trade Deficit Has Barely Budged Cato Institute
AI
A Court Has Ruled That Google Is Liable for False Statements Generated by AI Overviews Wired
US limits use of Anthropic AI models Fable 5 and Mythos Semafor
Visa Officially Allowing AI Agents to Go Ham With Your Credit Card Futurism
AI costs spike as subscriptions hit pricing wall — firms turn towards Chinese LLMs, open-source models to extend budget Tom’s Hardware
New AI system identifies 102 brain tumor types in minutes instead of weeks Yahoo News
The Bezzle
Frisco couple indicted in alleged psychic fraud scheme, after victims sent them more than $2M, officials say WFAA 8 News
Chino Hills man sentenced for $10M fraud scheme involving 145 bank accounts NBC 4 Los Angeles
Guillotine Watch
The 5 most expensive fruits in the world
— Science girl (@sciencegirl) March 14, 2026
The 5 most expensive foods in the world #top5 #expensive #food pic.twitter.com/oQ0bqtj2fv
— Top5expensive (@top5expensive) May 5, 2026
Antidote du jour (via)
See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here
Kallas backlash: this sounds like the Biden/Trump angry at Netanyahu while helping him genocide away.
Countries angry at Kallas while The German, French and UK ambassadors go to Russian MFA and demand Russian surrender.
I think Kallas is wayyyy to dim to be playing any kind of game like that tbh. I think she is actually very earnest in this wide eyed, slow way, just trying to do her best and the “right thing” but operating with a radically inadequate model of the world in her mediocre brain.
Absent from Kallas’ recent travails listed in the Euronews piece: Her remarks last month in Mexico about Israel as an apartheid state.
Those were covered here, though I forget which piece it was–perhaps this one:
https://www.euractiv.com/news/exclusive-kallas-israel-apartheid-remarks-deepen-eu-foreign-policy-crisis/
To the extent that I have an impression of Kallas, it’s similar to yours; someone who passed inspection at Western Meritocratic Groupthink, Incorporated, by being vacuous enough to believe all the nostrums. I’m entirely willing to believe that her Israel remarks were consistent with this (“Hey, I just noticed this country we all agree is good is doing something that looks a lot like what this other country that was bad did”), but what if they weren’t? What if she had an access of moral courage?
I realize that this is extremely unlikely, but the interesting part is that the machine has to code every instance of truth-telling that it can’t ignore as a gaffe, or, as the Euractiv piece calls it, a “blunder,” something like a small child loudly commenting on a deformed or disabled person at the grocery store.
‘Days of Palestine
@PalestineDays
Horrifying: The Israeli military has released footage documenting the extensive destruction it carried out in the town of Aitaroun in southern Lebanon.’
Pretty sure that IDF soldiers were allowed to go in and loot those places clean before they were bombed.
Yes, the looting is a thing.
how do people not see the resemblance here to Nazi hooligans?
smh
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-security/2026-04-23/ty-article/.premium/israeli-soldiers-testify-to-looting-in-lebanon-commanders-know-and-do-nothing/0000019d-b999-d2d7-af9f-bbb986480000
“Motorcycles, TVs and Couches Israeli Soldiers Testify to Widespread Looting in Lebanon…”
The looting has expanded in part because some Israeli military police checkpoints at exit points from southern Lebanon were removed, while others were never set up. IDF soldiers say that ‘when there is no punishment, the message is clear'”
Did they take the piano ?
Don’t shoot the piano player is evidently not in their playbook.
Barbarians at the Gate is how the rest of the Middle East must view Israel now.
Gonif with the win!
Frankly Scarlett my dear, I don’t give a damn about worldwide condemnation…
As Aunt Arkady Pat must be screaming about now: “Izzies in Georgia! How did they ever get in?”
EU army crash
Lemme guess, US noticed less F35 sales and forced the spineless Germans to crash the party.
Also, surprised that Russia considered Ukrainian EU membership when every nation (except SWE & FI) joined NATO first and only after that EU.
Don‘t tell me that EU is not a CIA-project. The value of the union is also in line with the value of CIA. https://archive.ph/3UXyR
Very doubtful. As I explained yesterday, all common armaments programmes involving France and Germany are either collapsing, or being postponed without plans, or seeing partners leaving: not just the fighter jet, but also the main battle tank, the naval surveillance airplane, the self-propelled cannon, the MALE drone, the modernization of attack helicopters…
Furthermore, Germany and France have not yet agreed on how to set up a joint development for the successor to the existing common LRU rocket launchers (before they reach their end-of-life), nor have they agreed on how to develop new common artillery ammunition (so far the Germans are going their own way fulfilling only their own requirements).
All those troubles are essentially a European problem. Pressure from the USA does not play the main role — all the more so since the North American ally is failing to ensure timely deliveries of the F-35 and Patriots already ordered. After all, such a staunch groupie of the USA as Poland ordered plenty of self-propelled howitzers, tanks, and airplanes from South Korea instead.
Both can be true at the same time.
USA blew up Nord Stream. Nobody, not the political misleadership class, not the business blood-sucking class, nobody in Germany said anything. You should expect total and utter obedience from such a country.
I grant that there are conflicts between FR& DE. Just like colour revolutions are impossible if there are no real grievances, the possibility of the US telling DE to throw a monkey wrench in all cooperations you mention wouldn’t be possible.
US sees the EU as a tribute paying vassal. One should instinctively suspect US-pressure on willing EU-tards/-traitors in these circunstances.
I acknowledged that there may be pressure from the USA, but that it does not play the main role. After all, the past couple of decades have amply proven that Europeans are supremely capable of thoroughly mucking up their own affairs without needing external nudges. The interminable list of collaborative military programmes that have been launched with much fanfare only to collapse later for political and economic reasons (not even because of technical over-reach) — all self-inflicted failures. Even somewhat successful programmes such as Galileo have had a mixed outlook.
Someone had to be on the winning side of these failures… I think, the way things are ‘programmed’ the determinations upon what constitutes success and failure are measured in the one dimension of money and its resultant use in political capture.
One man’s excrement is another man’s nutrient….or…. something like that…
Just a matter of following the concentration of money or power or value… basically making cash grabs at anything the public funds with guaranteed excess profits to the private sector, methods include bribing the government officials to abuse power to serve private or narrow interests instead of serving the interests of the public.
I guess the foregoing is a form of fascism…fascism being a thing that USA fought against in WW2 – Now…to be anti-fascist is today a thing that homeland security will put you on a watchlist for being a threat to national security….. Imagine that!!! All those folks buried at Arlington were threats to national security!!! all the rewarded valor and blood in a fight for democracy…..why they all were and all are a bunch of radical antifa…… I sure hope that these MAGA Trump supporters and sycophant butt dwellers with their fascist billionaire white supremist get their monuments to themselves completed before those hard-working dems get in charge to do……absolutely nothing, because, they don’t want to be holding the bag when the Sh$T hits the fan and, they got no clues on what they going to do, what they going to do when the people come looking for you.
France and Germany have had plenty of projects that fell apart–even when they wanted almost the same thing: the 50s joint projects that eventually led to the Leopard and AMX30, if I understand correctly, was over slightly different guns and engines.
Yup, far more cross-European weapons projects have failed than succeeded. Partly it’s the sheer complexity of trying to gain agreement among politicians, export interests, military buyers, industrial and trade union interests. But it’s also a simple reality that many of the militaries have very different war fighting philosophies and strategies. When compared side by side, preferred French and German weapons tend to be very different for reasons embedded in their strategic and tactical policies (the Leopard is far bigger and slower than the AMX – the French place a much higher value on armoured mobility than the Germans).
In a more sensible world they would embrace the variety and instead focus on cross-purchasing agreements. But the reality of modern weaponry is that they are extremely expensive to develop and need very large purchases to be affordable. It’s likely that some major systems (such as combat aircraft) are now just too expensive for Europe to develop independently.
What a spectacle that the trigger for much of the backlash against Kallas is her doing the right thing for once and getting to apartheid on Israel, when of course we are way past that now. And what does it say about EU leadership that that’s what they objected to? It’s difficult to describe the contempt that has grown in me for these people, amplified 10x by their simtaneous childlike self righteousness. It’s so galling.
all hell breaking loose next week!
cohamizu
@cohamizu1
·
11h
Translated from Japanese
Most people who think the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which has been keeping oil prices in check, will last for several more months are overlooking the lease portion in their calculations.
When factoring in the leased amount, my calculations show that the remaining days are already below 50.
Cushing, the key storage and trading hub, will dip below the 20 mb level next week, starting to disrupt operations.
Once that happens, the only options will be to rush into bids for delivery or close out positions, which means the massive short positions currently in play are highly likely to get squeezed.
Incidentally, the final trading day for the July WTI crude oil futures contract is “three business days before the 25th of the month preceding the delivery month.”
In other words, this leads to the following understanding:
Contract expiration: June 22 (final settlement and clearing related)
Final trading day: June 18 (Thursday)
So, from June 15 (Monday) to June 16 (Tuesday), I believe sellers—including intervention forces—will tend to aggressively suppress prices (by continuing short selling).
However, from June 17 (Wednesday) to June 18 (Thursday), with Cushing inventories reaching extreme lows, they’ll have no choice but to rush bids for delivery or close positions.
As a result, right before the trading deadline, the following activities will intensify:
Rushing to complete rolls (July contract → August contract).
Reducing short positions as much as possible, given the extremely high delivery risk.
Starting some forced buybacks with high likelihood to avoid physical delivery risk.
The July contract’s open interest of 128,861 contracts is quite high for this time of year.
Typically, this level a week before the contract month’s end is on the higher side, indicating a large volume of unsettled positions remaining.
Having this much left over suggests that roll pressure and buyback pressure are likely to intensify.
Why so many short positions at this time? With inventories so low, why would people think they’re making money shorting oil even at the last minute? I know this site forbids investment advice and I’m not asking for that. I’m just curious about the reasoning behind these people’s decision to short because it doesn’t make any sense to me.
What if the shorts are somehow tapped into the fiat spigot?
Trump/Bessent don’t need no stinkin’ rules, and post DOGE it’s not clear to me the Fed can stop them.
Big spike in the National Debt?
so yes jsn, the shorts can roll out to the next contract month. but at what premium? and how many times will a rollover be necessary before those physical supplies become available? the longs on the other hand can position for delivery, who wouldn’t want to buy dirt cheap oil? and how many new longs will enter to take delivery at the next expiry?in august? short covering rallies are vicious especially under these circumstances. and when china runs it’s spr down to bottoms? shorts are trapped!
The complexity here is too much for my non finance mental ability, but just tell me, please, does the fast increase of petrol, diesal, jet fuel likely shut down the EU? Or just a huge Western World depression because of demand destruction? 1 to 2 weeks you say the SHTF…. hmm…time to stock up…or too late methinks.
What a Mess!
Demand destruction could be keeping the oil prices in check.
https://william1234567.substack.com/p/the-load-bearing-wall-just-cracked
Google says up to 30 million barrels in spr is leased, or commercially owned. Separately, the reserve has 172 million barrels now, is this right? So, 142 is available for withdrawal by us gov and up to 30 by commercial owners? But all, less some ‘cavern bottom’ minimum, can be withdrawn?
50 days to the end of the SPR buffers matches what Prof Pape reported he heard from industry experts last week, he reported July 21 to Aug 7 (50 is about Aug 1st, as of June 14th).
Why the Friday oil crash is a textbook paper illusion
Lockdown Jesus
@HE4DEYES
The Cushing /
$USO
Short Trap: Why the Friday oil crash is a textbook paper illusion. 🧵
1. The Tanks are Barely Operational EIA data shows Cushing stocks at 21.64M barrels, dropping by ~800k a week. The absolute operational bottom is 20M. Below that, pipeline pressure fails and tank roofs literally collapse. Mathematically, the hub hits technical failure in less than 2 weeks.
2. The Reopening is a Supply Chain Mirage. Even if diplomatic talks go perfectly, you can’t teleport oil. Reopening Hormuz means mine-sweeping and re-insuring stranded tankers. More importantly: transit time around Africa to Europe/US takes 35 to 40+ days. Global refiners cannot stop buying US exports yet; they have a 5-week physical gap to survive. The drain on US tanks isn’t stopping.
3. Squeezing the Balloon: US midstream companies are already panic-shifting pipeline flows from Texas export docks north to save Cushing. But it’s a zero-sum game. You don’t create new oil by changing its GPS destination. Fixing Oklahoma just means starving the Gulf Coast. The entire system has zero margin for error.
4. The June 22 Meat Grinder: The NYMEX July WTI contract expires on Monday, June 22. If you are short a futures contract at expiration, you legally have to deliver physical crude to Cushing. But guess what? There are practically no physical barrels available to buy in Oklahoma.
5. The Setup: Bears have piled into
$USO
shorts thinking the geopolitical risk premium just evaporated. But when the next EIA data drops and shows Cushing is still a ghost town because physical ocean transit takes a month, those paper shorts are trapped.
They will be forced into involuntary, broker-executed market orders to cover their paper before the June 22 deadline.
The Verdict: The drop to $84.85 isn’t a structural reversal—it’s a massive bear trap. Physical logistics can’t move as fast as a news ticker. Expect a violent, forced short squeeze pushing paper WTI back toward $105–$115 over the next 10 days as paper liabilities collide with an empty physical bucket.
FYI. On the supply side of this issue. Recently was employed in a commercial outfit that had operations in seven states making deliveries of fuel products fulfilling contracts to the government,to farms all the way down to local home deliveries. During my employment there we literally ran out of product at our storage facilities. At that point, customers were rationed. When the US became more or less the defacto supplier to Europe is when this process started. Rationing has been the dark secret the last two years in the US. It is my belief that this will continue to be an issue in the coming years and I would suggest folks here act accordingly.
Re auto spying story –the soon to be mandated sleepy driver monitoring feature has long been offered as part of the ADAS package that automakers add to more expensive models. Reviewing this feature on at least one car that I looked at says you can turn it off.
However you cannot turn off all those Flock cameras that were the other part of the article. Perhaps drivers will follow the example of Trump who demanded a large tarp to block the removal of his Kennedy Center vanity badge. There are coverings to be bought for license plates that obscure them from certain angles. Whether this produces a Streisand Effect among passing police cruisers–just as Trump’s tarp itself became the story–is unclear.
Petty of Trump to leave tarps covering John F. Kennedy’s name simply because his name no longer appears there, even though it was illegally added. Don’t even know why he wanted his name added to this building as if there is one thing that you would never associate Trump with, it is the arts.
It was a middle finger to “the Arts Community”, dominance display.
So was closing down that building for the next two years. Simply an act of spite.
Expect it to be renamed the “Kennedy Centre of the Arts of the Deal.”
Trump petty? Surely you jest. One could suggest that his entire political career is revenge for Vanity Fair calling him a “short fingered vulgarian.” This could scarcely apply to someone who likes classy gold toilets not to mention Puccini’s Nessum Dorma. Indeed he have seen the whole opera once. More likely, though, he got it from the finale of The Sum of All Fears. Don likes apocalyptic movies and is out to make his own.
I think the nickname “SFV” was first used in Spy magazine.
The thought occurs that DJT’s propensity to use insulting nicknames for adversaries may have been prompted by being on the receiving end.
—
It’s hard for me to not feel a measure of schadenfreude as DJT’s insults toward JRB start to look like proleptic projection.
It wasn’t Vanity Fair that coined the description, but Spy Magazine. Graydon Carter, who co-founded Spy, later became the editor of Vanity Fair.
Yes guess I meant to say Graydon Carter.
GRAYDON CARTER NO LONGER “HOT”
https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/440262092961357824?lang=en
“The Air Force One 747 That Qatar Gifted To Trump Is Getting Its Finishing Touches
Frankly the new livery is a better look for Air Force One than the older livery except for one thing. The blue on it is far too dark and is verging on a blue-black. I have noticed on a lot of depictions of the US flag this shift to a much darker blue but don’t know why. And it looks like Trump too is unsurprisingly going along with this colour scheme as well.
Still sucks that Trump gets to keep this plane for himself after he retires from office rather than saying that it was a gift to the nation. Instead it will be a personal grift to Trump.
I always believed that official flags and emblems were defined precisely, with fastidious norms specifying the accurate geometry of their various elements and the exact colours to be used. But perhaps they were never as meticulous in the USA?
This reminds me of the continuing Imperial Japanese war flag saga, the navy version. The JMSDF continues to fly a flag that looks like the old imperial naval war flag, except, in theory, it’s not: the red color is just a tad bit brighter. But flags on actual warships are never quite of the original color–even if you could tell the difference between the different shades of red anyways. After some use, the JMSDF flag looks exactly like the old IJN flag, annoyingly reminding Japan’s neighbors of the unpleasant past history. (That and the JMSDF keeps the old Imperial Navy march also…)
I am actually convinced the choice of the new color was quite intentional, for precisely this reason.
Blue is the most difficult part of the color wheel to fiddle with. Marissa Mayer’s stellar accomplishment at google was managing the project to finalize the google blue RGB value which took a team of ten people a year to do.
Lapis blue and forget about it. It is subjective and many people may prefer a slightly different number but that is a quicksand swamp that once you go into it there is no graceful exit.
thats the blue you see on the right wing back the blue/punisher stickers on those black windowed, oversized, rolling coal trucks, often with trucknuts, just to be sure.
so yeah, likely intentional.
prolly a stephen miller joint.
Those rolling coal trucks weren’t born with truck nuts. Just saying.
Will the Secret Services be supplied by Epstein Industries?
FROM THE DEPARTMENT OF: IS MUSK A LIAR OR A FOOL OR BOTH? PART 99.
And if there’s a sucker born every minute, is the U.S. a population of 340 million suckers given the apparent acceptance there of Musk’s latest scientifically and technologically illiterate claims about datacenters in orbit? Because Musk has made two contradictory claims about why that would be a good idea.
[1] Datacenters in space are a good idea because space is cold and the cost of cooling would be greatly reduced.
No.
Space is cold, as it has a background temperature of ~2.7K, or a few kelvin above absolute zero. But that’s the temperature of empty space as a radiation sink. It says f*** all about thermal management when there’s no atmosphere and the only heat dissipation mechanism is radiation, with no conduction and convection.
To radiate meaningful amounts of waste heat in space you need either very high temperatures or very large surface areas (or both). Look at a picture of the ISS: its thermal radiator system covers roughly 2,500 square metres and is one of its most complex subsystems, and it manages orders of magnitude less heat than a serious datacenter would generate. Datacenters in space would need enormous — like, maybe, kilometers wide — radiator panels. Any object in LEO would also be directly subjected to the Sun’s light every 90 minutes. That’s 120–150°C on Earth’s sunlit side, and can become higher. That’s a variance of 400-500°C, which adds an engineering problem of violent thermal cycling to that basic dissipation problem.
And just to beat this to death, no geostationary orbit will keep an object in shadow. The Earth-Sun L2 Lagrange point,does exist about 1.5 million km in the anti-solar direction, and gravitational and centrifugal forces balance there, so objects can maintain position relative to the Sun-Earth line. The James Webb Space Telescope is located there to keep its sunshield permanently facing the Sun and its instruments in cold, stable shadow. But the Sun is only partially occluded at that distance and the Webb telescope still needs its own sunshield rather than relying on Earth’s shadow.
[2] Datacenters in space are a good idea because sunlight in space is all free energy (with an additional helping of Musk nonsense about the Kardashev scale, with which all longtime SF readers are familiar and the rest of you can look up.)
So this has more substance, but is still moronically oversimplified by Musk. Yes, solar irradiance in space (~1,361 W/m² at 1 AU, the solar constant) is higher than what reaches Earth’s surface after atmospheric absorption. And in particularly high orbits like GEO or L2, you’re in sunlight for a high fraction of your orbital period, unlike LEO where you cycle in and out of shadow roughly every 90 minutes. But: –
[1] Space radiation degrades photovoltaic efficiency and meaningfully so over a satellite’s operational life.
[2] You still need to transmit the data from your orbital datacenter to Earth, which requires either laser or microwave links with distictly non-trivial bandwidth constraints and latency.*
[3] Everything needs to be built to survive launch and operate in vacuum with zero servicing. How does that work?
[4] Solar panels in space still have mass. Getting mass to orbit costs roughly $1,000–$10,000/kg with SpaceX’s Falcon 9. SpaceX’s Starship aims lower, but that hasn’t moved anywhere beyond rapid unscheduled disassembly yet.
* Not incidentally, there’s also the small geopolitical problem that this might be potentially weaponizable.
On a related Earthbound note, I was futzing around the other night, trying to get a printer to interface with my laptop, as one invariably does.
And it struck me that the same people who for thirty-plus years have failed utterly to even deliver printers that work reliably with computers are the same people — Musk among them — who in 2026 are telling us that they’ll now deliver AGI.
Michaelmas: excellent.
We should bring up this fact often: computer software has always used the so-called printer drivers as an excuse for showy displays of planned incompetence. Planned incompetence.
And once installed, the printer drivers spontaneously fail.
Wasting the customer’s time is now normal and expected (by abused customers).
But markets must be free! And here come the data centers…
The market survived the Space X IPO
I can’t access Barrons but the question is, Will the market survive.
A related story here on a link from Ritholtz.
https://themoneyprinter.substack.com/p/the-spacex-ipo-and-the-end-of-public
FTL…
The public markets increasingly function as liquidity infrastructure for private power rather than mechanisms for shared market ownership and accountability.
Again, the money is public, but the credit creation is centrally planned.
The control is private, but the risk is socialized through retirement systems.
All of the upside is privatized through governance structures.
tegnost: The control is private, but the risk is socialized through retirement systems. All of the upside is privatized through governance structures.
Yes.
Future historians will write books with titles like The Fall of the Moron Empire, in which Musk’s ponzis will be one entry.
This is great: exactly the sorry of article I’ve been trying to find. Thank you.
Agree that orbiting datacenters is a bonkers idea.
A minor quibble on the solar thermal radiation problem — presumably this could be mitigated with shading, which perhaps could be provided by the photo-electric array. Multiple layers of reflective material (as, for example, in the Webb Space Telescope sunshade) could reduce solar heating of the functional parts of the facility to essentially zero.
Only in very specific, carefully maintained orbits that a) don’t have a lot of room and b) are very far away, making the latency and data link pointing problem much much worse.
More importantly, shading does nothing for dissipating all the heat generated by all those MW of electrical power. All those solar arrays…. all that energy gets turned into heat, and you hopefully get some useful computation in between. But then all that heat has to go somewhere.
“…all that heat has to go somewhere.”
Space based lasers. (Are there infrared lasers?)
Michaelmas, thank you. About a year ago I wrote that I didn’t want a solar-powered Elon2 mimic floating in space implementing glitchy bondvillain decrees through the payment system. This discussion helps me understand that won’t happen.
If Musk wants shade for his spaceborne datacenters, he should use his ego because it’s big enough to obscure a million suns.
That Musk thinks it important to ascend the Kardashev solar utilization scale in order to, among other things, impress an imaginary alien civilization both amusing and bonkers. For more in the same vein I recommend Adam Becker’s book More Everything Forever: AI Overlords, Space Empires, and Silicon Valley’s Crusade to Control the Fate of Humanity.
From the Politico piece, in reference to the USMCA trade agreement,
Is the guy really that stupid and uninformed to make such a statement? About two thirds of all crude oil imported to the US comes from Canada (>60%) and Mexico (7%), Venezuela aside. These countries supply heavy, high sulfur crude (API gravity 27 or less). In the case of US refineries, these feedstocks are necessary for jet fuel and diesel, as these refineries have been engineered to accept them (US crude produced from hydraulically fractured shale beds is light, low sulfur crude, which is destined primarily for export).
There’s always a decision to make in listening to anything coming from Trump or his loyal lieutenants: are they ignorant, lying, or both?
Is the guy really that stupid and uninformed to make such a statement?
Come on. Is the Pope a Catholic?
The Dude Subsides
We have a winnah!
– ‘The Democrats’ 2024 “Autopsy” and the Party’s Refusal to Halt Weapons to Israel’ – Scheerpost
– ‘Why Won’t the Cowardly, Corrupt Democratic Leadership Act to Impeach Trump?’ – Common Dreams
While I agree with the points made by both authors in today’s Democrat Death Watch section, I think they both miss key issues. Regarding Robin Andersen’s Scheerpost comments on the ‘Autopsy,’ she is right about the importance of Gaza to activist Democrats, the general unpopularity of the Party’s support of Israel, and the hypocrisy of the Party’s leadership on the issue. But I’m not sure this was the key issue among rank-and-file voters. Most of them are more concerned with everyday economic issues and tend to neglect foreign policy. The Democrats were too scared of their corporate supporters to push the few good things Biden did in this area (e.g. Lina Khan at the FTC), and they followed the effort to re-run a clearly failing Biden by forcing a clearly unelectable Harris on their constituents. Israel was perhaps the key issue for us (i.e. NC readers), but for the general public there were other factors not mentioned in this article.
Regarding Nader on impeachment – well, the Democrats tried that the first time. But rather than go after Trump for the actually impeachable offenses discussed by Nader, they used a bogus charge linked to Russiagate and their war in Ukraine (which they were afraid Trump might actually bring to an end). Of course the Dems would never use actually impeachable offenses like undeclared wars or links to corporate malfeasance since they are guilty of the same things. And after two weak impeachment attempts, the Russiagate bs, and an extensive lawfare campaign after Trump’s first administration – all of which much of the voting public could see through – Trump was basically handed lifetime immunity by the liberal Establishment for future impeachable crimes. And he has taken full advantage of this during his second administration.
Yes. All of that.
What part of oligarch-owned uniparty is confusing?
And I’ve noticed the vicious dem/aipac funded attacks on dems mouthing anti israel positions in primaries. I continue to think only a depression that crushes oligarch wealth might once again bring about fundamental change.
Impeachment without conviction and removal is not just meaningless but actually counterproductive in today’s hyperpartisan atmosphere. And there will never be enough votes to convict the way states are assorted into red and blue camps. Just a waste of time and spectacle without purpose. With a President like Trump, who is very clearly mentally ill, some other mechanism will have to be used if he’s to be removed. But I doubt his cabinet will even consider that until his debility is much more grotesquely obvious.
Yes, Andersen’s post focuses primarily on the effect of the Gaza genocide on the results of the 2024 election. That’s because it’s the scope of the article. She wrote a book on the very subject. I’m sure she would agree there were other factors in play. Those other factors were mentioned in great detail in the so-called ‘autopsy,’ while the war in Gaza was handwaved or barely mentioned.
“But I’m not sure this was the key issue among rank-and-file voters. Most of them are more concerned with everyday economic issues and tend to neglect foreign policy.”
Who is this mythical ‘rank-and-file voter’? If you mean a bleed-blue democrat, they are going to vote the party ticket pretty much no matter what. Parties in national elections need to offer a compelling vision for why independents and unregistered voters should put effort into voting for their campaigns. What these voters saw on social media was an ongoing genocide under the umbrage of US foreign policy led by a Democrat president. Do you think voters really care about Lina Khan when they are subjected to regular footage of Gaza atrocities on their social media feeds?
I think you need to give voters more credit. It doesn’t take a ton of logic to connect US foreign policy to its economy, or to see that the vast majority of the so-called economic gains during the Biden administration were pocketed by the finance industry, the tech sector, and military contractors. Harris did little to separate herself from the Biden admin on the Gaza issue and her campaign suffered dearly as a result.
Ana Kasparian – Unaligned:
Per Kasparian (and Parsi himself) there is no investigation to deport him. And other take downs.
The Bicentennial was a big deal in 1976, eagerly anticipated and I remember tall sailing ships from all over the world had a regatta of sorts, quite dignified!
Now on the 250th anniversary we have motorcycle riders doing jumps ala Knievel on the White House lawn…
Evel Con Evil
Welcome to the Idiocracy timeline. America’s bad luck to have a President that wants to make the 250th anniversary all about him.
Watching your country circle the drain…
Priceless!
For everything else there’s Master Cad
You are on your game today.
Totally true!
Seconded! Wuk ate his Wheaties!
Vacay is over bay-bee, I’m back!
Rev, another similar take elsewhere this morning recieved a response correctly pointing out that, in Idiocracy, at least the idiots were looking for a smart person to help. As such, I fear we’ve blown past that rather quaint timeline.
Also, where are the AI President Comacho/Trump vids?
Look for the videos of Legos wearing Crocs.
What can you say? Declining empires puke up freaks, monsters and clowns.
I think it’s time for a Republican to introduce a bill to make Trump’s Birthday a National Holiday.
They would score big points with Trump and it would give the Dims an excuse for Aghastitude that couldn’t be beat…without their having to do anything about the current polycrisis.
A Win/Win, Virtue signalling at its best!
Perhaps we could also rename the first Tuesday in November as “November Fool’s Day”.
This is a good idea, and the results would be as you described. However…
1 day is not enough. For Trump it will have to be at least a week of celebration.
I remember that oriental tales usually went for celebrations lasting 40 days and 40 nights. Surely Trump cannot do less than those Near/Middle Easterners.
It would be too much not to expect to see, as part of the celebratory, carnival atmosphere, in the dark back rooms of those festive chambers, some videos from the epstein collection featuring the birthday boy himself, going at it, to the frenzied delight of all his most wholesome friends and well-wishers.
re: Visa Officially Allowing AI Agents to Go Ham With Your Credit Card – Futurism
Where is the ‘opt out’ switch?
Don’t install any finance related apps on your phone, nay problem lassie.
Better yet, carry your phone, if you must have it by your side at all times, in a Farraday bag. I leave our phone at home except for long trips. I carry my Credit Card in a Farraday sleeve in my wallet. I only take it out to use it for a purchase. Otherwise, in the dark is the way to go. Even then, I try to do as much of my commerce in cash as I can.
Stay safe.
I dunno – as soon as there are a boatload of chargebacks to the banks claiming AI fraud – and it will likely be impossible to separate genuine claims from false – maybe the CEOs of those banks will write a sternly worded letter to Visa?
“AI costs spike as subscriptions hit pricing wall — firms turn towards Chinese LLMs, open-source models to extend budget”
Perhaps those Chinese firms will get the Tik Tok treatment. That Congress will declare them to be a threat to national security – along with OpenAI and Anthropic’s bottom line – so that their use must be outlawed. It would also help if Chinese software was also charged with being antisemitic.
Can they ban free stuff like DeepSeek? Imo that’s just gonna get better. I wonder if China thinks destroying us ai companies is a strategic benefit for China.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepSeek
Good guess, and it is already happening!
Got hot hot hot in France…
Spent a couple weeks with my ex expatriate French friends who relocated back to the motherland last year after 16 years in Visalia-
We had a grand time and they took me all over, from their pad (150 year old stone farmhouse) near Aurillac.
Notes on a scorecard:
Saw 7 homeless people and a dozen overweight ladies (no men!) in a fortnight.
“Pain” is bread.
Anything with sugar in it is “patisserie”.
Pain is trying to find “pain” in an American supermarket!
Anything with sugar in it is “patisserie”.
Anything with sugar and flour, that is. Otherwise, it is “confiserie”.
And yet there are so many different shapes, sizes, and flour/other ingredients combinations, all with their own particular name, that you can never simply ask for ‘pain’ in a boulangerie in France. Even a supposedly simple baguette has its named variations.
The chart demonstrating the Unstoppable Rise of China’s Auto Empire is really remarkable, but I have another question. If you add up the volumes of the four countries shown you see that between 2014 and 2024 there’s almost no growth in the underlying auto market. Yet the tweet asserts that China’s contribution to the world auto market is “democratizing”. That should mean that the overall auto market has increased substantially, but that’s not shown in this chart. The only way this could be true is if there’s also been a great increase in Auto sales from other countries. Or am I missing something else?
And if Tesla’s are made in China how is that counted in the chart? Or byd automobiles made in brazil? Finally, we’re getting ready to go through the first great di-industrialization and so this chart should even more amazing in the next 10 years.
!!!!Glenn Diesen interviews John Mearsheimer & Sergey Karaganov!!!!!
to discuss why Russia is under mounting pressure to restore its deterrence, which will likely escalate quickly to a nuclear strike on Europe. Mearsheimer and Karaganov agree that a nuclear strike would likely be successful to restore deterrence as the US would not respond.
Karaganov falls out of the interview about a quarter of the way in but then returns about halfway through. But the intervening discussion between just Glenn and John should not be missed.
https://youtu.be/Q8PT0jiemKc (1:48:36)
Thanks for the link.
Thanks for info. Will try to listen.
I can only assume these 108 minutes go beyond what I am regularly criticizing about the „nuke narrative“.
So this:
“Russia is under mounting pressure to restore its deterrence, which will likely escalate quickly to a nuclear strike on Europe.”
NOPE.
Allow me a brief rant on this single note:
This is K. scaremongering.
Perhaps K. wants to reach US elites.
I don´t know why else he is doing it.
But this is not RU military and government line.
It´s his line. And that of people of his group.
What I really dislike is how Ks view is so dominant in the altern. Western public.
They are running around like scared little rabbits instead of looking soberly at what really is happening in UKR.
For European doves It´s still “millions” of Russians and Ukrainians dying on the battlefield, still a “stalemate”, and RU still „forced to negotiate a settlement“, this time because of “drones”.
Following irresponsible, dark fairy-tales instead of thinking with their own head they are not prepared for what may truly come.
The moment that indeed could be dangerous is when Russians decide they may have to take Kiev, in a few years, and eventually the rest too.
But the danger would rise not due to their escalation but that of Europe.
So if at all, to me this nuke story is a red herring.
But Ks claims now fog the clear analysis of what is more likely happening in the future.
That would be really important to understand.
Not panicking over this current nuke doom – which, pardon me, is not without a healthy amount of self-serving PR for the benefit of the public person of Sergey Karaganov.
0702 PDT
Russia begins restricting petrol sales in Tatarstan, Moscow and St Petersburg
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/06/13/8039196/
EU foreign policy chief compares Israel to apartheid South Africa
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/eu-foreign-policy-chief-compares-israel-apartheid-south-africa
Iran says draft US deal includes oil sanctions waiver, nuclear limits and asset release
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-says-draft-us-deal-includes-oil-sanctions-waiver-nuclear-limits-asset-2026-06-14/
Royal Marines board Russian shadow fleet oil tanker in English Channel
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyek039l2vo
re: EU foreign policy chief compares Israel to apartheid South Africa
Thanks for the link. Thinking about Isr’s brutal treatment of Palestinians convinces me Isr is Western European countries’ last colonial outpost in the ME.
I base this on the horrific treatment the Belgian empire put on the Congolese uprisings against Belgian rule, the treatment France put on the Vietnamese/Indochinese during the Vietnamese uprising against French rule, etc, etc. The pictures taken at the time by the ruling Western govts as proof they could crush uprisings are too awful to link here. They exist and you can find them online.
South Africa’s apartheid was far worse than simple Jim Crow laws, (although the US South during Jim Crow had its own history of vicious repressions. See the phrase “strange fruit in the tree.”)
Isr’s vicious treatment of Palestinian prisoners – dog rape, human rape, restriction of water and food – isn’t surprising if Isr is indeed the last colonial outpost in the ME.
See the US treatment of Iraqi prisoners at Abu Ghraib prison when they tried to “recapture” Iraq under US control.
The Western ideas about rules of war and Geneva Convention and Nuremberg Trials are thrown out the window when old colonial powers deal with colonial civil wars if the old colonies are non-white populations. Think of the term “Wog” – Westernized Oriental Gentleman – coined by the Brits as a racial slur. Isr is carrying on carrying on in the old colonial sense, imo.
Wog was a slur all right. But what it actually stood for was *Wily* Oriental Gentleman. As in … well, you know.
0715 PDT
Canada’s economy posts biggest trade surplus since before Trump’s tariffs
https://financialpost.com/news/economy/canada-economy-posts-biggest-trade-surplus-year
Israeli military strikes Beirut suburbs in the lead-up to anticipated US-Iran deal
https://www.denver7.com/world/israel-at-war/israeli-military-strikes-beirut-suburbs-in-the-lead-up-to-anticipated-us-iran-deal
UFC to pay White House fighters in crypto issued by Trump company
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jun/14/white-house-ufc-fighters-crypto
“Trade surplus since before Trump’s tariffs” is that a line item in GAAP?
Brexit.
As this is now regarded by a majority in the UK as having been a mistake, it is of course going to be an issue, either live or potentially live, for the future. The obvious argument is: if it was a mistake then why don’t we reverse it? It is not going to go away as an issue, even though at present it is not very live.
A general election in 2029 could see the debate revive. If, as currently seems likely, Nigel Farage is seen as a front-runner to take over as Prime Minister, the temptation is going to be there for other parties to attack him as one of the men responsible for Brexit. Time will tell whether they do this or decide that the time is not yet ripe to reopen the issue more fully.
Does anyone think that the EU would let the UK back in without bending them over and making them take it up the council?
The management of the Brexit “negotiatians” demonstrated the sheer utter incompetence of the elected and no-elected elements of HMG, and the lack of any obvious post-Brexit strategy for the economy, or even of effective diplomacy by both cheeks of the Uniparty proved to be a greater problem than Brexit itself.
We tend to forget that Brexit had it’s origins in the draining of subsidiarity and the encroachment and absorption of the powers of the member states to an unelected Commission and it’s instruments and its sheer unwillingness to deal effectively with the needs of member states in crisis – the best example being the responses to the 2008 crash – coupled with the fact that a running thread of British politics since the 1960s that the European Commission would increasingly attempt to expand it’s powers by transforming itself into a Federal State with a common currency managed by an “independent” central bank, absolute control over fiscal policy, and the capacity to impose non-traditional values and cultural norms on diverse nations within states with the power to punish those who disagree by withholding the funds due to them and by election fixing, and now wishing for its own military forces beyond an form of electoral control.
Brexit was, and is, a natural reaction to a European experiment that failed, an experiment which has resulted in widespread unemployment, precarious work and deep poverty, not the increasing prosperity many of us hoped for in 1973. Unfortunately we are no longer governed by the wisdom and wariness of the political generations that had gone through the horrors of two European wars. We are governed by a class of know-nothings forced to rule by fear, tinkering with our legal protections and stealing our liberties, because they are, almost to a man and woman, totally unworthy of respect.
Given our current class of political duds and the decline and increasing fragmentation of the EU the last thing we will tolerate is any attempt, by stealth or referendum, to take us back into an institution as it self-destructs with the economies of its member states performing even more poorly than that of the abysmally failing UK.
Oh dear.
The EU member states’ economies have, as a group, outperformed the UK by a significant margin since 2015 (GDP per capita PPP and nominal bases). See the international institutions’ data bases for detail.
No EU member state is considering copying the UK’s example.
If you are genuinely British (there are so many Russian trolls around nowadays) you must accept that you are now in a minority in thinking Brexit was a good idea.
Seen on Reddit:
“My ability to dissociate has become too powerful. Now I’m just watching the fall of America like ‘hmmm, yeah, that happens to empires’ while I look for dog hats on Amazon.”
This is me.
Tech Stocks’ ‘Big Tobacco Moment’: What Battles Over Key Legal Shield Mean For Meta, Google (IBD)
Chinese electric car export sales doubled to 2-mil Jan-Oct 2025 from 2024, gas cars down 5%, total sales up. Huge surge in demand for electric maybe going higher if oil goes higher. Granted, none coming to a dealer near you.
Easy to think demand for solar/wind etc along with autos/trucks will protect Chinese exports as long as oil is high, and maybe by the time it’s not the advantages of simple elect vs IC will be too much to ignore… we’ll, maybe excepting fossil-loving us.
re: end of privacy
sorry if this was already among links
1) FCC Wants to Kill Burner Phones By Forcing Telecoms to Get All Customers’ IDs
June 9
https://www.404media.co/fcc-wants-to-kill-burner-phones-by-forcing-telecoms-to-get-all-customers-ids/
2) More License Plate Reader Mission Creep: School Residency Verification, Background Checks, and Noise Complaints
May 26
https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2026/05/more-license-plate-reader-mission-creep-school-residency-verification-background
Re. (1): We have this in Europe already AFAIK.
The situation is a bit different.
In Europe, using a mobile phone requires a SIM card and practically always did since GSM became predominant. The phone itself can be bought totally anonymously; the SIM card, whether associated to a prepaid price plan or to a postpaid subscription, is only issued for a specific person, who must present an id document when acquiring it. This has been the case for at least a couple of decades, when governments (partly at the behest of the EU) clamped down on the possibility to buy prepaid SIM cards anonymously. SIM cards for postpaid subscription were obviously never anonymous (the telecom operator must know whom to send the monthly bill).
The USA had specific wireless communication standards in place, some of which did not rely upon SIM cards and had the phone number “burnt in” in the mobile device itself. That is why a phone had to be bought from a specific telecom operator and could only work in its network — no possibility to change the SIM card and have it work on another network, or outside the country, or on the same network with a different number. Burner phones were thus such ready-to-go telephones (already coming with a number and access to a mobile network), with a prepaid credit, that could be bought anonymously, used, and discarded. Conversely, the same kind of phones with a postpaid subscription were never anonymous anyway. Nowadays I suspect that “burner phones” mostly correspond to SIM cards associated to a prepaid subcription and bought anonymously, not actual mobile devices. But perhaps the old-fashioned “phone with burnt-in number” deprived of SIM card still exists in the USA.
fyi on cheap Chinese drugs, the author neglects to mention
Pay-for-Delay: When Drug Companies Agree Not to Compete (FTC!)
So the situation may not be as dire for the pharma companies he mentions as losing patent protection on double digit parts of their portfolio.
Hang me, seriously
Data is not enough: from Covid to measles, America must relearn risk communication
But avoids mentioning that COVID is airborne or that the Pandemic isn’t over; and intimates that, because mild cases of Hantavirus might be unreported, the actual death rate is probably lower, and thus indirectly gives the impression that those that survive are I guess just totally okay. That’s not true of SARS1, it isn’t true of SARS-CoV-2.
(bold mine)
And decides to ignore the infamous COVID is not airborne tweet from WHO, and instead focuses on this
I guess if you wanted to be a COVID denialist, this is the way; presenting a reasonable sounding argument in favor of public health, and then conveniently leaving out that COVID is: not over, airborne, the subject of intense misinformation by public health, with WHO and CDC being exhibit A.
What a joke.
Does finally mention shared air
But lying about COVID being past tense (during COVID, ect.) is dishonest and deadly messaging, when the author claims accurate public health messaging is a crucial aspect of public health.
re: Habermas
Er, this is Alex Karp´s obituary for POLITICO from March 20th…
My Time with Jürgen Habermas, Europe’s ‘Last Intellectual’
The sting of rejection lingered for years.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/03/20/karp-habermas-remembrance-00838398
Thanks, AG. Funny, I was just thinking of Habermas this week, as his book Legitimationsprobleme im Spätkapitalismus was maybe one of the earliest to try to analyze the failures to manage late capitalism and the general crisis situation in which states have lost legitimacy in the eyes of the citizens.
Bizarrely, we’re in a situation now in which the state is involved in “managing” capitalism — e.g., Trump and the media issuing a series of false statements in order to placate markets — but we seem to be rapidly approaching the moment in which this may not longer function.
Given that Habermas had already diagnosed a “legitimation crisis” over fifty years ago, how has it been possible for the status quo to remain as such for so long? Can this situation be ascribed primarily to widespread “perception management”, fiddling with the processes of electoral systems, the “engineering of consent”, etc.?
Also reminds me of that flipped out Wolf Gremm film Kamikaze 1989 (1982) starring R. W. Fassbinder as a detective wearing a leopard-print jacket, who is investigating a corporate media conspiracy that maintains Germany as a society of total control.
I believe I never watched “Kamikaze”. Any resemblance to “Welt am Draht”?
“how has it been possible for the status quo to remain as such for so long? ”
This question is probably one of the most pressing in those 50 years since, and least talked about by “social sciences”, meaning least solved.
On the other hand, I assume the rise of “conspiracy theory” concepts correlates with it.
As an attempt to both explain this and cope with and eventually justify the state of things.
You always had such fiction narratives like in Balzac novels or English mysteries before that – perhaps – fairy tales served that purpose in the Middle Ages. But the more people understand, distrust and have the means to engage into questioning power structurres the more blunt or rather “frank” the explanations become.
I assume the demise of religion was significant too. But I disgress…
Liminal Sagrada
A little historical comment on the entity our corrupt political and judicial classes jail people and deny fair trails for criticising: https://jewishvoiceforliberation.org.uk/article/1967-we-received-orders-to-shoot-to-kill-without-prior-warning/
Greetings from Greenland, er 33,000 feet above…
I have no designs on acquiring said real estate-
They had me seated next to a 4 month old baby in coach and when they announced a premium seat was available I just about got 2nd degree burns getting my wallet out of my back pocket-
1256 PDT
Trump says Iran deal delayed by Israel strike, expects signing within hours.
https://www.firstpost.com/world/trump-says-iran-deal-delayed-by-israel-strike-expects-signing-within-hours-14022417.html
Iran says signing of Islamabad memorandum will not take place on Sunday
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-signing-islamabad-memorandum-will-not-take-place-sunday-2026-06-13/
1310 PDT
IDF confirms: Senior Hezbollah commander Daqdouq eliminated – former head of Nasrallah’s security detail
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/oi5slrjq8
Iran Slams US After Israel Attacks Lebanon, Says “No Point” In Peace Talks
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/iran-slams-us-after-israel-attacks-lebanon-says-no-point-in-peace-talks-11635879/amp/1
Japan to send delegation to Greenland to evaluate rare earth extraction
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-send-delegation-greenland-evaluate-rare-earth-extraction-nikkei-says-2026-06-14/
Trump says new Israeli attack on Beirut shouldn’t have happened
https://news.sky.com/story/iran-war-latest-us-reveals-details-of-deal-terms-as-iranian-attack-drones-shot-down-near-strait-of-hormuz-13509565
Iran questions US commitment to peace moves as Israel strikes Lebanon
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-iran-inch-closer-deal-timing-remains-unclear-2026-06-14/
1410 PDT
Kentucky U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell hospitalized Sunday morning
https://www.wdrb.com/news/politics/kentucky-u-s-sen-mitch-mcconnell-hospitalized-sunday-morning/article_af3d9bce-0e33-4031-87ea-33a1317a0403.html
A follow on to China’s cheap drugs…
That’s a big warehouse fire:
Massive Warehouse Fire! Medline Industries, Tracy, CA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNDOcWU8t3U
StacheD raises some interesting questions about how this fire started, and how the building sprinkler system failed. But I gotta wonder with Just-In-Time supply lines, and a huge warehouse burning up, just how much does this mess up medical supplies in the Bay Area and Sac regions?
From Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif:
https://x.com/CMShehbaz/status/2066268332832194810
Meanwhile
https://x.com/DanielLDavis1/status/2066214211072438620
Urgent: Iran, U.S. to sign peace MoU on June 19 in Switzerland: deputy FM
Five days is a long time to keep this from being scuttled.
I’ll take even serious attempts at peace. The more we try to get this done. The better odds we have of succeeding.
And yes, 5 days gives Israel thousands of chances to blow this up.
And then what?
The world is in dire need of oil. Israel f!@#ing this up simply puts it and the US in a worse position one week later and with fewer options, and it doesn’t help Netanyahu at all.
It’s possible that Israel will still try, but my best guess is that this will kick back up in 30-60 days; for now US and Israel both need to re-arm and resupply
It will be hilarious to watch the Europeans somehow manage to fuck themselves over even harder from their position of irrelevance, though. I have no idea how they will even be able to screw this up (since merely shutting up and doing nothing should be the default option), but I am highly confident that they will find a way
it’s hard to keep track of what’s even purportedly going on.
From the NY Times, sounds like Lebanon is in the MoU, which Trump cannot deliver.
So if true, this whole thing is once again farce.
I didn’t see what “open” means in terms of the strait, but I doubt the Iranians have dropped their insistence that they now control the strait with Oman.
I guess we’ll see.
So, I took a break from the Internet this weekend, and other than World Cup soccer no TV. I come back and notice this headline from the NY Times:
“U.S. and Iran Near Cease-fire Agreement”
Telegram channels are reporting that the airspace over Western Iran is now closed, and Iran may retaliate for the Israeli attack on Beirut, which happened after Trump promised that the Zionist Entity would be curbed. Trump is apparently trying to calm the situation.
Groundhog Day? Is this suckah about to go down?
I’ve been wondering whether they would simply sign different documents and call it a memorandum of misunderstanding.
I’m laughing because we’ve seen the same headline run since March. What makes anyone think it will be different this time?
I think Iran will retaliate in order to disrupt T’s blood-letting exhibition.
1510 PDT
‘This court does not have the power’: Trump attorneys flatly tell judge to back off inquiry into ‘anti-weaponization fund’
https://lawandcrime.com/high-profile/this-court-does-not-have-the-power-trump-attorneys-flatly-tell-judge-to-back-off-inquiry-into-anti-weaponization-fund/
US fuel prices drop as Iran ceasefire deal eases geopolitical tensions
The Judicial Branch has no authority over the Executive Branch, this is the official position of the Trump administration.
This is what allows ICE/CBP to have total immunity, as demonstrated by Jonathan Ross and the killers of Alex Pretti.
The Word of the King IS the Law.
If Trump was not a stable Genius appointed by Divine Providence to Make America Great Again, this might pose a problem.
Since there’s nothing but blue skies and good times ahead as each day gets better and better in this, the best of all possible Worlds there’s no reason to fuss about such minor matters.
Don’t Worry, Be Happy!
re: socialist architecture
https://socialistmodernism.com/
coffee table books
https://urbanica.ro/product/socialist-modernism-book-socialist-modernism-in-former-yugoslavia/
Laman
@LVision_Trading
·
2h
HORMUZ | How much oil is trapped in the Persian Gulf?
My latest vessels count point towards ~150mln bbl, up from 95mln bbl I previously estimated, after digging out all the vessels that have been dark for considerable amounts of time.
Few observations:
▪️60 VLCCs (whopping 20 of which are 10+ days dark) I can call by name
▪️State-owned fleet (Saudi, Kuwait, UAE…) is VERY difficult to identify and nearly impossible to track (9 out of 16 vessels I identified have been dark for 25+ days) which likely results in significant underestimations
▪️ The real Hormuz opening will be signaled by COMMERCIAL traffic movement. I am staring at 64 stuck vessels today.
Lets see what happens next week once the proverbial Deal is finally operational.
English text of the MOU, per Middle East Spectator (https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/33574); I cross-checked, the Russian-language version of Pars Today posted the same, but, err, in Russian.
—–
The Iran-U.S. Memorandum of Understanding: Full Details
Phase 1 | Upon announcement of the MoU (effective immediately):
– Upon announcement of the MoU, both sides declare an immediate, complete and permanent end to all hostilities in the region, including Lebanon.
– Upon announcement of the MoU, the United States declares the immediate and complete lifting of the U.S. naval blockade against Iran.
Phase 2 | After Signing of the MoU (30-day period):
– Upon signing the MoU, the United States confirms its commitment to non-interference in Iran’s domestic affairs and respect for the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
– Upon signing the MoU, the United States affirms that it will not increase the amount of troops or military assets present in the region, nor impose any new sanctions during the negotiations.
– Upon signing the MoU, Iran reaffirms its commitment to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and confirms that it will never produce, develop, or acquire a nuclear weapon.
– Upon signing the MoU, the United States declares that it will provide Iran with half of its frozen funds, amounting to a value of $12 Billion, to be made available in a non-reversible manner within 30 days, with a commitment to make the remaining half available during the subsequent 60 days.
– Upon signing the MoU, the United States will issue sanctions waivers for Iranian oil, gas, and petrochemical exports, effective immediately, with a commitment to extend these waivers permanently once a final agreement is reached.
– Upon signing the MoU, the U.S. will begin immediate consultations with Israel to present a short term timeframe for a full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, including points occupied following the 2024 Israel-Hezbollah agreement.
– Upon signing the MoU, Iran confirms it will reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial maritime traffic, according to certain specified arrangements determined by Iran, within 30 days.
Phase 3 | Negotiations on a Final Deal (60-day period + possible extension):
– The 60-day negotiating period will begin once all the terms of the MoU have been met in the previous 30 days.
– The 60-day negotiating period can be extended by mutual agreement of both parties.
– During these 60 days, the U.S. will make the remaining $12 Billion of Iran’s frozen assets available.
– During these 60 days, the U.S. will present plans for a reconstruction fund for Iran, amounting to a value of at least $300 Billion, funded partially by Gulf states.
– The U.S. and Iran will begin detailed discussions on a permanent solution to nuclear-related matters, including enrichment, the existing uranium stockpile, and the fate of the nuclear sites.
– The U.S. and Iran will begin detailed discussions regarding the lifting of all economic sanctions on Iran, including primary, secondary, U.S. and UN sanctions, as well as the withdrawal of all UN Security Council and IAEA Board of Governors resolutions against Iran.
– A monitoring mechanism will be established to supervise the implementation of a final agreement.
– The final agreement will be approved by a UN Security Council Resolution.
This one will be the trouble:
Upon signing the MoU, the U.S. will begin immediate consultations with Israel to present a short term timeframe for a full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, including points occupied following the 2024 Israel-Hezbollah agreement.
Israelis will resist giving up the “buffer zone” in Southern Lebanon. How hard will Iran push for that?
I assume Iran can say: “we’ll open the Strait when Israel pulls back to its own border” and make this the crux of the whole thing.
The GCC states are ready to accommodate Iran.
Trump just wants this to be over, which means only the Strait opening matters to him.
Israel will Israel, so we see how far the US will rein them in/support their bullshit.
The rest seems doable if challenging.
Ultimate Folding Championship
Half of frozen assets released in 30 days (and the remainder in 60) is also a big potential stumbling block, given the procedural issues involved there.
This is a remarkable document if accurate. It looks like Iran got most of what they wanted, and the US almost none (count up the number of concessions by the US and Iran and compare). It will be fun to watch neocon heads explode when this reaches the Western press.
“It looks like Iran got most of what they wanted, and the US almost none (count up the number of concessions by the US and Iran and compare). It will be fun to watch neocon heads explode when this reaches the Western press.”
One very good indicator as to how favorable this is to Iran is to note over the next few days which 3-4 talking points the bots circulate on X to spin as a “victory” and to see how aggressively they post on Israeli-skeptic accounts.
Lotta holes in that agreement, especially with Israel acting as a spoiler. The all important second phase has a lot of Trump promises in it and lots to benefit the US by having oil, including Iranian oil, go out to the world to lower oil prices. This would be of high importance to to Trump in getting gas prices low again. Iran will be only getting $12 billion and will probably never see any more of their money – it is a Trump promise remember – and they still have the problem of all that damage to their country to repair.
Araigchi on Friday:
Our sword will always be present above the Strait of Hormuz
And it’s a card that can be played again at any time.
But if Israel acts as a spoiler, which seems entirely possible and even likely, it would mean the final nail in the coffin for whatever public support it may have had. It would become clear, beyond a shadow of a doubt to the entire world, that the current economic catastrophe has a very specific entity to blame for. Is Bibi willing to gamble that much to stay out of jail?
I get the impression that Netanyahu would do literally anything to stay out of prison. Don’t forget his wife is ‘intimately’ involved and would see jail time as well.
“– Upon signing the MoU, the United States affirms that it will not increase the amount of troops or military assets present in the region, nor impose any new sanctions during the negotiations.”
The region being what area?
Regarding that phrase:
“– Upon signing the MoU, the United States affirms that it will not increase the amount of troops or military assets present in the region,”
Does that mean that troop levels stay where they are now? (As of 2026/06/14…)
What “level” is being talked about in this phrase?
Seems like an important point.
Another good technicality. Is it not at an all time high with full preparation for war? In the case that it’s from current level it’s not a meaningful commitment
No–it means that the US will not rebuild its bases. It’s a face-saving clause that basically states that the US has conceded the Middle East (for now)
Really, who cares? The US by now probably wants to get its troops home as fast as possible, since they have so few bases remaining and anyway it is clear that if the region flares up next time, Iran is not going to restrain itself. Having said that, Iran likely assumes that US/Israel will re-arm as much as they can over the next 30-60 days and are assuming there will be a final attack in August.
Other questions:
1. Anything on reparations?
2. Nothing about Gaza/West Bank? If not, that is where Israel is going to go ape shit
3. Iran not charging for access through strait? That would be unfortunate for them…
Assuming MES really does have an accurate text…
1. is in Phase 3: “During these 60 days, the U.S. will present plans for a reconstruction fund for Iran, amounting to a value of at least $300 Billion, funded partially by Gulf states.” I suspect the two sides have very different ideas of how that will work. In fact I suspect the US alone has several different ideas, depending on whether you talk to Vance, Hegseth, or one of the Trump family grifters.
2. is a problem, depending on just what’s meant by “the region” in which all hostilities are to permanently cease.
3. would fall under ” Iran confirms it will reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial maritime traffic, according to certain specified arrangements determined by Iran.”
Oh, and there seem to be two separate periods, one of 30 days to be followed by one of 60 days, which brings the date of the final attack to September. I suspect Israel won’t wait that long. In fact I’m guessing the first sentence of the MOU will be dead before it’s even signed. Then we’ll find out if the US is serious.
Thanks for the Beta Safety First
Great news for the world if true and it works…
If I was negotiating for Iran, yes I would want this clause:
Upon signing the MoU, Iran confirms it will reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial maritime traffic, according to certain specified arrangements determined by Iran, within 30 days.
(my emphasis on what I see as big grey swatches)
Might not want to fire up the Trump tanker conga line just yet…or run in the USN targets
Trump is in the box he has created with this war, Iran was prepared for this, he was clueless to even start it. Now he is desperate to get out but Isr won’t let him. What is to be done? Shut down Isr and defy the lobby’s wrath? Or blather on and go over the cliff? As Yves has so astutely pointed out, this is an epochal defining moment. Iran will not capitulate. We have an idiot in charge, but his vast ego might yet produce a surprise, though that surprise might be vaporized along with his bluster. This grows darker ad nauseam.
I guess this is what you get when you institute an Imperial Presidency. It bumbles along fairly well until you get a crazy and decadent Emperor.
Trump has even gone so far as to put on gladiatorial games in honour of his birthday. How more Imperial can you get?
Heaven forfend that the Orange Hued Satan suffers the same fate as Crassus. Or that the Empire suffer the same fate as did Rome after the dissolution of the Triumvirate with Crassus’ death.
Fascinating ancient history that (which I’ve just been reviewing, so thank you!).
Alas, there is mechanized destruction about.
As the Romans found: what goes around, comes around.
good rundown from Nick Wade State of Play
the memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the US and Iran announced on 14 June is the latest in a series of ceasefire announcements the market has repriced and then watched unravel. Jeff Currie counted five with zero closed as of late May; since then there have been more. Each time, oil has sold off on the announcement and recovered as the physical reality reasserted itself. On 14 June it sold off again: Brent fell around 4% to $84, WTI to around $81, extending last week’s falls on the same hope. The market is again pricing the press release rather than the molecules.
The political conditions for a signed document are better than at any earlier point. Pakistan and Qatar have kept the mediation alive through several near-collapses, including the Beirut strike that nearly destroyed the current agreement hours before it was announced – Qatar’s mediation in the final hours ran to around 15 hours of continuous negotiation. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council finalised the MOU under the guidance of Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei and thanked Pakistan and Qatar for their role. Trump cancelled planned airstrikes on 11 June. JD Vance will sign alongside Iran’s lead negotiator Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf and foreign minister Abbas Araghchi in Geneva on 19 June – the highest-level meeting between Washington and Tehran in 47 years. The probability of an actual signature is meaningfully higher than at any previous announcement.
Signing and resolving are different things, though, and the distance between them is considerable.
The sequencing question is a live interpretive dispute, not a settled legal structure. Kazem Gharibabadi, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, confirmed on state television that two steps happen immediately: the lifting of the US naval blockade and the end of conflict on all fronts including Lebanon. Iran’s commitments under the agreement, he said, begin on Friday, 19 June. But he then made the verification condition explicit: the 60-day negotiation period begins only after Iran has verified that the US has fulfilled those prior commitments, meaning the end of hostilities, the blockade lifting, and the release of frozen assets. On Tehran’s reading, the negotiation clock starts when Iran is satisfied that Washington has delivered, not at signing. Axios reported that the US is treating the 60-day nuclear negotiation period as running from signing. The MOU text has not yet been published, and the two sides appear to be describing different clocks.
The toll question illustrates the gap between Trump’s framing and what was actually agreed. Trump announced “permanently toll-free” passage and described the deal as guaranteeing Iran “cannot develop or purchase a nuclear weapon” – claims that go well beyond the MOU as reported. On tolls specifically, the New York Times notes that the agreement suspends tolls for 60 days, after which a regional dialogue on the future begins. Iran had never charged tolls before the war, so Trump is, in effect, celebrating a return to the pre-war status quo on passage, while the post-ceasefire institutional question remains entirely unresolved. The Persian Gulf Strait Authority did not exist in February, and Iran has insisted that traffic coordination with its authorities must continue after the conflict.
The sanctions question is more complicated than the current price move implies. The reported draft includes a temporary waiver allowing Iran to sell oil and receive export receipts during the 60-day period, alongside a release of frozen assets – a real concession, and the market is right to price some of it. However, a sanctions waiver on paper is not the same as restored flows. Tanker owners, insurers, banks, and buyers all have to act on it, and the gap between a US waiver and full commercial normalisation has historically been wide and slow to close, measured in months rather than weeks, as the JCPOA implementation period demonstrated. Full sanctions removal remains contingent on a final agreement that does not yet exist, and the nuclear questions pushed to the 60-day follow-on – enrichment levels, the existing stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium, verification – are the same ones that took the Obama administration two years to negotiate.
Israel does not consider itself bound by the Lebanon clause. Netanyahu has stated that no ceasefire is in effect in Lebanon, and Israeli security sources have confirmed the IDF will not withdraw from its security zone in the south. Trump excoriated Netanyahu for the Beirut strike that nearly derailed the final agreement – “he should be very thankful to us,” he told the New York Times – yet Israel was not a party to the negotiations and Israelis across the political spectrum have been critical of the deal. Iran had made a full Lebanon ceasefire a core demand, and its foreign ministry called the Beirut strike a terrorist act for which Washington bears responsibility. If Israel escalates again – and it has done so repeatedly at critical moments in this process – Iran’s verification condition becomes a ready-made exit before the 60-day clock has even started.
The announcement does not change the physics. The Buffer and the Cliff set out the calculation: applying consensus short-run demand elasticity to the residual flow deficit – once SPR releases, inventory drawdowns, reduced Chinese imports, and bypass flows stop absorbing the shock – produces a price range of $136-151 per barrel. Those temporary offsets have been running down since late February, and a signed MOU does not refill the drawn-down buffer, restore the inventory levels already approaching operational stress, or reverse four months of cumulative production forfeiture across the Gulf. Sultan Al Jaber of ADNOC has said that flows through the strait would take at least four months to recover to 80% of pre-conflict levels under immediate resolution, with full normalisation not expected before the first or second quarter of 2027. The IEA had put the best-case reopening timeline at six to eight months after an agreement is reached.
The LNG picture is harder still. Wood Mackenzie assessed Ras Laffan damage as halting Qatari production and removing roughly 19% of global LNG supply from the market, with force majeure declared from 4 March and initial expectations of a two-month disruption exceeded. Qatari LNG has no bypass equivalent and no strategic reserve offset, and will not normalise on the same timeline as crude even if the strait reopens cleanly, because the physical infrastructure was struck rather than merely blockaded.
Oil price moving toward $150 remains a live scenario, though conditional on reopening being slow, contested, inadequately insured, or interrupted by Israeli escalation or the sequencing dispute. A clean and rapid reopening with full commercial normalisation would push prices lower as deferred supply returned to a demand-adjusted market. The base case sits between those outcomes: partial, contested, risk-premium-laden restoration of flows against an inventory buffer drawn down for four months and a sanctions regime that takes time to translate into barrels at a refinery.
Port services, vessel positioning, insurance underwriting, transit clearances, and counterparty due diligence under a partial sanctions waiver all have to reconstitute themselves. War-risk premiums that moved to multiples of their pre-war level will not normalise on a signing ceremony. Four months of disruption does not undo itself in weeks.
I will update the supply disruption analysis as traffic data through the strait becomes available, as the MOU text is published after 19 June, and as the sequencing dispute and verification condition become clearer.
concise and very informative thank you!
What’s the over/under on Trump again reneging, after his circle jerk fighting matches and self- celebrations are concluded?
I imagine the Iranis are gearing up for some trickeration after the 4th of July.
U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance on Fox News hailed the agreement as “a big moment for the United States.”
Longish Naftali Bennet interview with Times of Israel
Electioneering interview, without much specifically on the conflicts. Interesting nonetheless.
BP – I am not able to open that link for Times of Israel
It says server not found. Is there some kind of block for us in California? or is it just my somewhat messed up computer?
Bad link, try this:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/bennett-to-toi-were-at-an-existential-moment-another-four-years-with-this-government-we-wont-have-a-society/
Thanks John, I’d miscopied the link before.
Face scans to enforce social media ban on under-16s (Telegraph)
Government crackdown rushed through ahead of Makerfield by-election on Thursday
Rushing to legislate. Face scans if you look under 25. Sieg Keir.
Can Africa turn its population boom into prosperity?
It can sustain the emigration boom, for better or worse.