More gallows humor from the Housing Bubble Blog. You know you are subprime when….(note at least nine of the items on this list happened): The Borrower doesnt know there loan amount, interest rate or mortgage payments. You spend your closing cost money on a motorcycle 2 days before closing. You are adding your boarder’s kid’s […]
Read more...Even the relentlessly upbeat National Association of Realtors is predicting that 2007 will be the first year since the Great Depression to witness a decline in housing prices. With lackluster-to-bad real estate tidings a daily staple, the Associated Press tells us, in “Housing sales may be worse than data show,” that even that information is […]
Read more...This bombshell came courtesy Michael Shedlock, in “Fitch Discloses Fatally Flawed Rating Model“: What follows are excerpts from Absence of Fear, an excellent article written by Robert L. Rodriguez at First Pacific Advisors.We were on the March 22 call with Fitch regarding the sub-prime securitization market’s difficulties. In their talk, they were highly confident regarding […]
Read more...Bloomberg, in “GE Plans to Seek Buyer for Subprime Mortgage Unit,” tells us that for GE, cutting its subprime lending business WMC’s staff by more than 50% wasn’t enough. The parent told staff via e-mail that the business is to be sold. It reportedly contributed $100 million of GE’s total $20 billion profits in 2006, […]
Read more...This post is mainly for those who like data. The Financial Times, citing the Bank of International Settlements, reports that worldwide sales of collateralized debt obligations were $251 billion in the first quarter of 2007, and synthetic CDO sales were $121 billion, both record levels. To give a sense of magnitude, total US rated subprime […]
Read more...That’s the question from Felix Salmon, and like Diogenes looking for an honest man, so far he hasn’t found anyone who has an answer. Salmon is getting close to the dirty secret: no one has an answer. The most they have are some interesting datapoints, factoids, and analyses. At the risk of having someone prove […]
Read more...The Wall Street Journal, in “Fitch Sees Rising Shakiness In Commercial Mortgage Arena,” tells us that the rating agency issued a warning Wednesday on frothy lending in the commercial real estate arena. The problem with this story is that the WSJ makes it sound as if that’s news. It isn’t. The Financial Times reported on […]
Read more...Readers of this blog know that I have been concerned about the state of the credit markets for some time. We’ve had (until the last month or so), rampant liquidity feeding asset bubbles in virtually every asset class except the dollar and the yen, tight risk spreads (that means inadequate compensation for risk assumption), lax […]
Read more...Today’s Wall Street Journal describes how the Office of Thrift Supervision is weighing new rules that would bar the banks it supervises from engaging in “unfair and deceptive” practices, a response to widespread claims of “predatory lending” in the subprime mortgage market. This effort, if it comes to fruition, is less and more than it […]
Read more...Bloomberg reports that Moody’s has dropped its ratings on 399 subprime related bonds and is reviewing ratings on another 32. Standard & Poors had announced earlier in the day that it is preparing to cut ratings on 2.1% of the bonds that have subprime exposure, or roughly $12 billion out of a universe of $565 […]
Read more...John Dizard, who writes a pretty-much-weekly column for the Financial Times, typically presenting an exotic investment idea, has long given me the impression he spends much of his day gossiping with people on trading desks. Which means he is very much plugged in, and some of the remarks he makes in passing can be more […]
Read more...Another day, another gloomy housing forecast? The Freddie Mac prediction, that housing sales in the US will total 6.28 million, would be the lowest level since 2001. Not surprisingly, the agency attributed the expected decline to higher interest rates and more stringent lending standards. The report also said Freddie Mac’s home price index, for houses […]
Read more...In “Increasing Rate of Foreclosures Upsets Atlanta,” the New York Times gives a solid piece of reporting on a city where the unraveling of the housing boom has come hard and fast. Why Atlanta? Its state laws aren’t very pro consumer. Foreclosures proceed much faster than in most states – an owner can lose his […]
Read more...Thanks to Seeking Alpha, we have a recap of a Barron’s story, “Why a Housing Recovery is Far Off.” Aside from a stern warning in the Economist in 2005 about the US housing bubble, which declared the market to be 20% overvalued and added that when housing bubbles correct, prices often below “fair” value, in […]
Read more...I find it interesting when factoids that are already in the public domain get treated as if they are news. Stephanie Pomboy, as reported by Barron’s Alan Abelson (hat tip Barry Ritholtz) tells us that there are a lot of adjustable rate mortgages that have no equity. And, of course, if housing prices fall, more […]
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