Even though the stock markets are over the moon as of this hour (the Nikkei up nearly 440 points, other Asian markets up over 3%, bank stocks up even more), the all-important question is the reaction in the credit markets. It is far less enthusiastic. One might charitably call it underwhelmed. From John Jansen: I […]
Read more...The deed is done. Freddie and Fannie are now officially in conservatorship. Uncharacteristically, I listened to the presentation by Paulson and Jim Lockhart, which was thin on details (particularly size of new facilities and investments). The bombshell was the aside that not only is there to be a new secured lending facility for the GSE […]
Read more...The reporting on the main elements of the Freddie and Fannie rescue plan is converging as the content of official briefings leaks out. The stunner, which contradicts preliminary reports, is that the preferred shareholders in the GSEs will take losses. The Wall Street Journal reports that dividends on common will be eliminated and those on […]
Read more...The New York Times, in “Loan Giant Overstated Its Capital Base,” sets forth an interesting bill of particulars as to where Freddie deviated from what one might consider a full and fair statement of its financial condition. Indeed, the article says that the widely-expected Sunday intervention was triggered by the GSE’s regulator determining that the […]
Read more...Guess the powers that be were unwilling to risk playing chicken with the markets and losing. So much for the theory espoused by some that the government couldn’t put the GSEs into custodianship absent a breaching of statutory minimums (technically, by being insolvent under the “fair asset” valuation method, Freddie is already on plenty thin […]
Read more...More cheery news on the housing front. The rise in foreclosures wasn’t unexpected, since there are widespread, albeit anecdotal reports of banks being backlogged on foreclosures, either by virtue of design or understaffing. But notice how prime mortgages are a significant component of new foreclosures. From Bloomberg: New foreclosures increased to 1.19 percent, rising above […]
Read more...Although there have been rumors of various Lehman Hail Mary passes (the number of companies allegedly interested in investing in the troubled bank seems to grow on a daily basis), the one involving it spinning off less than choice debt into a liquidation vehicle appears to have some substance. A Bloomberg story today gives details […]
Read more...Brad Setser is thoughtful and data driven, but he also isn’t shy about saying what numbers portend, even if he runs the risk of sounding a tad alarmist. We’ve had so much complacency, followed by concerted efforts to keep asset values and confidence aloft that an unvarnished presentation can come off as a dousing of […]
Read more...Today’s Financial Times describes a new sign of how bad things are in the real estate market in London. People are so desperate to keep their deals alive that they are buying houses they do not want (yes, that sounds completely barmy, but the piece explains how it works). The net effect is that not […]
Read more...We wrote yesterday about Japanese retail and institutional investors exiting Freddie and Fannie holdings, and didn’t consider it as worrisome as it might seem on the surface, since at this juncture, the funding of our current account deficit is coming almost from central banks and to a lesser degree, sovereign wealth funds. Tonight, the Financial […]
Read more...Bloomberg reports that today’s sale of $3 billion of GSE debt went well, which investors took as a sign that a GSE crisis is not imminent. However, even this striving-to-be-upbeat article had some threads that bode ill for the longer term. And DealBreaker pointed out earlier this week that there is a profitable arbitrage on […]
Read more...Banks in the UK have retreated from residential mortgages with considerable speed. Even though the falloff in July vs. June was not dramatic, home lending is a such a low level that any further decline is not welcome. The Independent did not try to put lipstick on this pig, although a few sources did attempt […]
Read more...Yes, it’s the end of the summer, but the Fed boys worked over the weekend, so what’s the excuse of Hank Paulson & Co.? The saber rattling for the Fannie and Freddie rescue program to be unveiled is getting louder and louder. We had an unmistakable demand from the Chinese over the weekend, if you […]
Read more...When you think you’ve read everything worth considering on a given topic, once in a while something comes along to prove you wrong. A case in point is this post by Charles Calomiris at VoxEu on the subprime mess. It is longer than the standard VoxEU offering, but well worth your attention. Calomiris not only […]
Read more...A story in the New York Times warns, “Some Fear Commercial Property Loans Will Be Next Stage in Downturn.” This is news? I’m in a lazy mood, so I will merely search old posts. Fitch warned in April 2007 (yes, the year is no typo) of the lousy quality of commercial real estate loans and […]
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