This post first appeared on September 21, 2007 In an intriguing article today, “The Bank loses a game of chicken,” Martin Wolf, the Financial Times’ chief economics writer, followed the lead of the Bank of England’s Governor Mervyn King in backing down from their shared view that central bankers should be willing to let all […]
Read more...Full disclosure: I’ve known Amar Bhide for roughly 25 years (we both worked on the Citibank account at McKinsey, albeit never on the same project) and although we correspond only occasionally, I continue to regard his as a particularly keen observer and original thinker. He was briefly a proprietary trader, then an associate professor at […]
Read more...By Satyajit Das, a risk consultant and author of Traders, Guns & Money: Knowns and Unknowns in the Dazzling World of Derivatives – Revised Edition (2010, FT-Prentice Hall). In his “Ode on a Grecian Urn”, the English Romantic poet John Keats declared that “beauty is truth, truth beauty”. In derivatives, its seems transactions may be […]
Read more...By Richard Alford, a former economist at the New York Fed. Since then, he has worked in the financial industry as a trading floor economist and strategist on both the sell side and the buy side. As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain, and as far as they […]
Read more...As discussed in ECONNED and on this blog, clearinghouses are not a solution to the systemic risk posed by credit default swaps, since there is no way to have a CDS counterparty post adequate margin and have the product be viable (to put it more simply, adequate margin make CDS uneconomic). So for CDS, the […]
Read more...Is it any surprise that Wall Street went a bit off the deep end with the (admittedly barmy, but that’s a separate issue) Blanche Lincoln proposal to spin off derivatives desks? Derivatives, which are now deeply integrated in how dealer banks devise customer transactions and how they manage their own risks, are a large proportion […]
Read more...An article by Gillian Tett in the Financial Times, “Trading volumes retreat with investor trust,” contends that the notably low trading activity of late is a sign of deeper changes in financial markets: The most pernicious issue hanging over the system right now is a loss of confidence – not merely in the idea that the […]
Read more...This post first appeared on July 11, 2007 Readers of this blog know that I have been concerned about the state of the credit markets for some time. We’ve had (until the last month or so), rampant liquidity feeding asset bubbles in virtually every asset class except the dollar and the yen, tight risk spreads […]
Read more...Even in this TARP and Fed supported, “heads I win, tails you lose” of the banking industry, the “you live by the sword, you die by the sword” element has not been entirely removed. Witness the schadenfreude-gratifying distress at JP Morgan’s commodities unit, headed by Blythe Masters (a supersaleswoman who has already gotten a fair […]
Read more...According to Pimco’s global strategic adviser Richard Clarida and CEO Mohamed El-Erian, the new normal is not normal, and that has profound implications for investors. Some of the conclusions may sound a tad self-serving, in that Pimco is a bond shop, and fat tails implies more risk (or more accurately, higher odds of more extreme […]
Read more...Complementing today’s piece on the Chinese property bubble, a cross-post from VoxEU, with some graphical depictions of how wild the bubble has become. The NYT article referenced in the piece is here – RS. By Yongheng Deng, Professor of Real Estate and Finance at the National University of Singapore, Joseph Gyourko, Professor of Real Estate, […]
Read more...This post first appeared on May 1, 2007 Due to Paul Volcker’s having broken the back of inflation in the early 1980s, and Alan Greenspan performing what appears to be adequately on the substance of his job and masterfully at the showmanship, the Fed’s reputation is at an all time high. And that in and […]
Read more...Felix guessed how this Structured Finance issue pipeline would get sorted out, for the moment. Three not necessarily inconsistent takes on causes and effects: A neat way to embarrass the government. The rating agency logjam and the GM deal announced yesterday are closely related: if there’s one thing GM will think it still needs for […]
Read more...Richard covering for Yves here, in case that maritime internet connection, which seems OK for terse emails, is not so great for navigating 100 eurowebsites, to whizz through as much detail as possible. Just seven failures, making Chris Whalen’s EU stress tests: who knows, who cares? the main takeaway, I suppose. Not enough blood to […]
Read more...This post first appeared on March 27, 2007 This is a great post by Tanta at Calculated Risk on the classic types of mortgage frauds and how they morphed into new forms due to a unique confluence of buyer naivete and broker/originator greed (oh, and sometimes buyer greed too). She clearly discusses recent versus traditional […]
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