As much as some optimists would like to find evidence of recovery, it is far more likely that the US will see a further deterioration in economic activity. We have not yet seen much in the way of bankrupticies and debt restructuring. Until this sort of thing becomes sadly routine, the bottom is not yet […]
Read more...We are supposed to be impressed with the speed and scale of government action on the bank front. As reported in the New York Times: Nearly 100 federal banking regulators descended on Citigroup in New York on Wednesday morning. Dozens more fanned out through Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and other big banks across the […]
Read more...Churchill’s famous dictum, “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time,” could also be applied to mark-to-market accounting. However, like democracy, mark-to-market may be on its last legs. The stock market rally of late last week was fueled by the rumor that […]
Read more...The effort to get the second half of the TARP approved (or more accurately, not force Obushma to nix a Congressional turndown) is all feeling a bit Groundhog Day-ish, without the backdrop of a Lehman collapse and AIG implosion to add a sense of urgency and high drama. The officialdom is again using its access […]
Read more...Jon Danielsson has provided a great post at VoxEU (hat tip Independent Accountant) that calls into question the very premise of modern risk management, namely, that risk can be accurately quantified. This notion goes far further than the discussion of Value at Risk last the weekend keying off an article in the New York Times […]
Read more...The New York Times Sunday Magazine has a long piece by Joe Nocera on value at risk models, which tries to assess how much they can be held accountable for risk management failures on Wall Street. The piece so badly misses the basics about VaR that it is hard to take it seriously, although many […]
Read more...L’affaire Madoff continues to garner front-page coverage. Yet I find the stories peculiarly unsatisfying, since they are peeling the onion one layer at a time, failing to answer the questions I find most interesting: was his fund ever a legitimate operation, or was it a con from the beginning? And where did the money go? […]
Read more...Why is no one willing to call things by their proper names, and instead resort to euphemism and double-speak? A New York Times story today, “On Wall Street, Bonuses, Not Profits, Were Real,” makes its most important point in its headline, and managed to get some good data points on how rich investment bank compensation […]
Read more...The Wall Street Journal reports in a story frustratingly sketchy on key details that AIG has sprung another leak, or more accurately, had an ongoing leak that has just now come to light. The amount at issue, $10 billion, seems small compared to the $150 billion the insurer has already managed to extortsecure from the […]
Read more...As credit default swaps have come in and out of focus over the last year, I have been struck by the assumption that this product would of course continue to exist. I have trouble seeing their legitimate uses. In theory, they could allow banks to diversify and hedge credit risks better, but once risks rise […]
Read more...Readers no doubt recall that the Fed announced the creation of the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, which will lend as much as $200 billion against new or recent vintage asset backed securities collateralized by “student loans, auto loans, credit card loans, and loans guaranteed by the Small Business Administration.” One wonders if the order […]
Read more...This ought to be a celebratory event, the scrutiny of a powerful player in the financial system who heretofore seemed immune to criticism. And what is interesting about the spotlight on Citigroup consigliere and board member Robert Rubin is that, unlike Greenspan, the reassessment is starting while he would still appear to have his hands […]
Read more...Well, this is starting to get the feel of a bad soap opera, which is not helpful to Citi (never a good sign when I leave my computer on a Sunday afternoon and find multiple news updates when I return. This may not be full crisis mode, but it is certainly not a good sign). […]
Read more...The New York Times has a solid bit of reporting tonight by Eric Dash and Julie Creshwell, “Citigroup Pays for a Rush to Risk,” that seeks to explain why the giant bank got itself in so much trouble. The piece points to the usual culprit, too much risk taking, but the particular Citi flavor was […]
Read more...As the prospects for the economy deteriorate, the cost of default protection on corporate bonds hit a new high. From Bloomberg: The cost of protecting corporate bonds from default surged to records around the world as the prospect of U.S. automakers filing for bankruptcy protection fueled concern of more bank losses and a deeper recession. […]
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