We’ve featured fresh reports of the US moving planes to the Middle East, such as: Probably F15s, F16s, F22s And F35s : Dozens Of US Jets Now Converging On The Middle East. There are similar accounts, such as:
🔴 U.S. has significantly increased its military posture in the Middle East, with multiple C-17 transports deploying to bases in Qatar and Saudi Arabia, special operations assets (including Night Stalkers and AC-130 gunships) positioned regionally, and two carrier strike… pic.twitter.com/tC3mXC6nI3
— The Inquiry (@InquiryTh) January 10, 2026
It has been less widely noticed that Iran has changed its military doctrine from authorizing purely defensive action to now permit pre-emptive strikes.
From Tasmin News on January 6, translated by Resistance.org:
Statement of the Secretariat of the Defense Council of the Islamic Republic of Iran, January 6, 2026.
[….]
The Islamic Republic of Iran, relying on national cohesion, comprehensive deterrence capability, and full defensive readiness, once again affirms that the country’s security, independence, and territorial integrity constitute an inviolable red line. Any infringement upon national interests, interference in internal affairs, or action against Iran’s stability will be met with a proportionate, targeted, and decisive response.
Within the framework of legitimate self-defense, the Islamic Republic of Iran does not limit itself to responding after an action has occurred and considers objective indications of threat as part of the security equation.
Reader Historiality claimed on January 8 that Russia was evacuating embassy staff from Israel. A colleague who has contacts among diplomats across the Global South just wrote us:
China has also pulled its diplomats out of Israel. Russia has urged its citizens to flee via Egypt. Neither country has pulled out of Iran to the best of my knowledge.
We are taking the liberty of posting the text of this entire tweet for reader convenience, since it can be read for free on Twitter.
A dramatic shift moves us from “defense” to a posture of “imminent offense.”. –Talal Nahle
At noon, the measures concerned “troop movements.”. Now, after sunset, Iran has begun “clearing firing corridors.” (Firing Corridors). This means vacating specific airspaces to allow its… pic.twitter.com/lk6nxk0UY9
— IntelSky (@Intel_Sky) January 10, 2026
The body:
A dramatic shift moves us from “defense” to a posture of “imminent offense.”. –Talal Nahle
At noon, the measures concerned “troop movements.”. Now, after sunset, Iran has begun “clearing firing corridors.” (Firing Corridors). This means vacating specific airspaces to allow its missiles to launch toward external targets without colliding with civilian or friendly aircraft.
Here is the new and exclusive update in the evening brief of January 10 (17:01):1. “Fire Corridor”. From Central to Western Iran
A new and dangerous NOTAM has appeared (A0398/26).
Location: A broad air strip extending from Markazi Province (Arak) and Hamedan toward the western borders (Kermanshah. Ilam).
Strategic analysis: This is not a protective closure of a site, but a clearance of a pathway. This “air tunnel” is typically established to allow ballistic missiles or drone swarms to pass safely from central launch bases toward targets in Iraq or Israel. The existence of this corridor indicates that missile batteries have been armed and oriented westward.2. “Ocean Gate”. Jask
NOTAM number (A0390/26) has appeared.
Location: Jask port and naval base (on the Gulf of Oman, outside the Strait of Hormuz).
Critical importance: Jask hosts heavy submarines (Kilo class) and long-range anti-ship missile systems.
Analysis: Activating Jask means fortifying the “rear platform.”. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, Jask is the only base capable of engaging U.S. fleets in the Indian Ocean. This secures the rear of the Iranian navy.3. “The Last Iron Dome”. Tehran (SHORAD Alert)
NOTAM number (A0392/26) has appeared.
Location: Very low-altitude restrictions over specific areas of Tehran.
Analysis: This indicates the deployment and activation of short-range air defense systems (SHORAD) such as “Majid” or “Tor-M1” among residential buildings. The target here is not fighter jets, but cruise missiles or small drones that could slip between buildings. This is the “final layer” of defense before impact.4. “Vahdati” Air Base. Dezful
NOTAM number (A0395/26) has appeared.
Location: Vahdati Air Base in Dezful.
Importance: A highly advanced offensive base (close to the Iraqi border), known for fast F-5 aircraft used for rapid response.
Analysis: Placing this base in a “live fire” status means it will be the spearhead of any border air engagement to prevent hostile aircraft from penetrating deeper territory.Geopolitical conclusion of the evening brief (17:01):
The title of this file is “Opening the Road to Fire.”
The most dangerous element in this update is the “western air corridor” (Point 1).
When a state clears an air route from the center of the country to its borders, this is a very strong indicator of intent to launch offensive projectiles (missiles or drones), not merely defensive measures.Preparations are complete:
Commanders are in bunkers (since noon).
The offensive pathway is open (now).
Close-in defense (SHORAD) is activated inside the capital (now).Iran is now standing with its finger on the trigger.
As the end of this post indicates, this posture may be a signal of readiness as opposed to positioning for action to follow immediately. But given the clear signs that the US is moving military assets to the Iran theater, it is hard to believe that it makes sense for Iran to stand pat.
One has to think that if the intent is to launch a pre-emptive strike, as opposed to engage in threat display, that Iran will not sit around in a state of high preparedness but will hit as soon as they are ready. So if the reading above is accurate and Iran plans to move first, the strike would seem likely to come tonight or at the latest, the night after.
Waiting for an Israeli sneak attack, instead of attacking Israel first, is incredibly stupid. Ask Hezbollah.
Allowing US forces to build up on your border, without attacking them first, is also incredibly stupid. Ask Saddam. He was an idiot to allow the U.S. to build up an invasion force in Saudi Arabia without a military response from Iraq during the first Gulf War.
Smash your enemies before they smash you. Both Israel and the U.S. bombed Iran a few months ago. There is no “peace.“ If I ran Iran, I wouldn’t wait.
I am Iranian, and this my take: Iran would lose either way!
Waiting to get sucked punched doesn’t help either, does it?
Iran never being on the initiative means that Mossad simply sucker punches them by using their intelligence assets to weaken them in an interchange of blows.
While I completely understand good normal people never really WANTING to choose to ruin their lives and invite chaos and destruction into their homes and the homes of those they love…
I wonder if all these (including Iranians here) scapegoats of the western /US elites , who are being openly attacked in so many ways by these elites and their military machines actually realize how bad it would hurt these elites pretense to actually be in control ,if the “kids” getting picked on by the bullies…. pops him a good one. The bully might win in the moment… but he would lose face. And he is actually afraid of that above all else.. so it seems.
Here in the US…. A lot of us, maybe even most of us want those bullies hauled out and given the perp walk treatment… for the rest of their lives.
Every time the emperor is shown to be naked… it breaks something. Part of the facade.
For the rest of the worlds good… here in the west/USA..
It looks like the good people of the US are going to have to strike against to oligarchs, the feds, and the cops… who are all stooges.. to the same oppressors who plague the world.
Regime change begins at home
Problem is Iran doesn’t have the means to do decapitation strike on US, any initial “smashing” success like sinking of aircraft carrier will unite Americans and give Trump carte blanche to wage genocidal war against Iran. To weaken support for such actions, both domestic and international, Iran needs to be seen as clearly responding to unprovoked attack.
Jackson Hinkle has reported that Russia has transferred Iskandars to Iran.
Likely, Israel will attack when the rioters (burning hospitals and mosques!) begin to die down, which is in the very near future.
OTH, 100,000 Russian soldiers are dead thanks to the US, so payback via a proxy (or defense partner), is not unthinkable.
How would Jackson Hinkle know? He read it on the Internet, just like everyone else, and did not give it any thought.
ty. the majority of Twitter geopol “news” is one-person engagement farms rehashing whatever they find anywhere.
the really good accounts rarely/never throw out breaking news, because they’re honest about their limitations, lmao….and have integrity
Well, we’re in reverse-Betteridge times as far as I’m concerned, so … Yes.
ChrisRUEcon: I’d say maybe.
It seems to me that the Iranian government’s change to an aggressive / attack posture militarily has to do with events inside Iran. I am reading reports that Elon Musk (ever the signal of white-boy stupidity) is using the Pahlavi flag on his site. I am also reading that the U S of A somehow supports the shah-in-waiting-in-DC-suburbs.
This is like cultivating some mythical descendent of Anastasia Romanova and trying to plant said descendent in the Kremlin.
Do people in Washington truly get paid to fight wars of sixty years ago?
I think that the example of Venezuela is instructive. The U S of A logistically (washed-up army), economically (fragile economy), and politically (no one in Washington has the social capital to lead) could not invade Venezuela. So the U S of A settled for scuttling Machado (read: the shah-let) and dealing with the facts of the matter, Delcy Rodriguez and her brother Jorge.
I just read an interview this morning in Fatto Quotidiano of some academic in Italy who is an Iranian exile. He is expecting Israel and the U S of A to intervene. Only Iranian exiles of a certain kind believe such fantasies.
Meanwhile, I have some reliable reports that the Iranian populace is burning down mosques and other religious sites. This is remarkable news, given the artistic value of many mosques and the traditional tie of Shi’i Islam to Persian nationalism. They are also burning down facilities attached to the Revolutionary Guard.
The geniuses in Washington, New York, D.C., and Tel Aviv have no control over these changes.
So: maybe. It is going to take a couple of weeks to determine what happens in Iran. I doubt that Iran will attack outside the borders during an internal crisis. But I also doubt that Israel and the U S of A have any influence at this time, except as sponsors of death squads within Iran.
I doubt that Iran will attack outside the borders during an internal crisis.
I thought it was common practice for a country with internal domestic problems to attack a foreign enemy to rally the populace at home. I guess there’s a reason why this is an exception to the rule?
Using Reza Pahlavi as a figure head is not only spectaculary self-defeating but the guy is despised in Iran itself. He is best buds with Bibi and has visited Israel a coupla times but if he ever came back, he would have torture squads be part of his entourage. I suppose that the Israeli plan is to attack Iran and kill a lot of civilians and try to finally get that regime change. They may have restocked on anti-air missiles but will it be enough? Or will they, when they run low, once more run to Uncle Donny to bail them out. Donny might decide to take part in this war but once you start a war, you never know how it will turn out. What if the Iranians, with Russian help, shot down one or two B-1 bombers. What if video emerges of shot down F-35s with captured pilots? None of that would fly well with the American people. Trouble is that Donny is high on his own power and thinks that he can do anything he wants.
Looks pretty normal – especially compared to when it’s restricted.
Google ‘UM688’ – the flight path they are claiming is closed – with the ‘time’ on the search limited to ’24 hours’. That link is the only source of that claim.
If that claim doesn’t turn out to be true pretty fast (mashing F5 on a google search of that term over the last 24hr) – then personally I’d permanently trash that source as being completely unreliable.
It’s very difficult to see what Iran can gain from a pre-emptive strike. It doesn’t have the ground forces to follow up on a missile strike, so it’s just an invitation for Israel/US to counterstrike its already very shaky infrastructure. Thats not to say they won’t do it – the view from a bunker in Tehran of their strategic options may look very different than for a dispassionate outsider.
Most likely they expect an attack on Iran within weeks and they are preparing for a hair-trigger immediate response. they want their missiles in the air as soon as the first Israeli/US missile crosses into their airspace. The Cold War term for this was LOW (Launch on Warning). or Early Warning Counterstrike (EWCS).
Iran issued the first NOTAMs three days ago, and at the time they were reported as defensive.
Given Israel’s habit of using civilian air traffic as “human shields”, the most plausible explanation is Iranian air defenses clearing the “lines of fire” with the assumption that Trumpanyahu will take advantage of the riots and try something with the hope of destabilizing Iran even more.
Ty for LOW & EWCS.
I think a major weakness of Iran is that it has never demonstrated a significant deterrence. No doubt nuclear weapons are the ultimate deterrent, still Iran has air defense systems, missiles, and drones, tacit Russian and Chinese support, and in the summer 12-day war with Israel it damaged important Israeli infrastructure.
Iran is an oil rich country and China is its biggest customer, and the US views China as an adversary; Khamenei should do the math.
“The United States carried out major airstrikes against the Islamic State in Syria on Saturday” according to the NYT. And Israel is always condemning and threatening Iran. A preemptive strike is legal and following the abduction of Maduro, the US claim to own Venezuela’s oil, Syria a dysfunctional state, Lebanon occupied, and suffocating sanctions on Iran, I’m not sure what else Iran’s leadership needs to realize they’re facing an existential threat.
Rather than wait to be attacked, and once again allow Israel and the US to pick and choose its ideal moment, I think Iran has more to gain with a preemptive strike.
Iran’s problem:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAtGYWgXfY4
Why do I think this talk of an Iranian preemptive strike is the setup for a narrative to cover an Isr false flag event designed to start a war.
Me think so as well. A preemptive attack by Iran would give Israel and the US any justification to do what they always wanted… Can´t believe Iran is that stupid and I don´t think Russia or China would be pleased.