We have Mark Thoma to thank for pointing out this story on research by Nancy Wallace at the Haas School (UC Berkeley). She found serious deficiencies in the risk models used by banks to evaluate residential mortgages and predicted widespread problems a year before the subprime meltdown. She and her colleagues have just completed a […]
Read more...As I have mentioned before, this blog relies a bit more than I’d like on the Financial Times because its writers have a greater understanding of the inner workings of the financial markets and take a jaundiced view of recent developments. One has to wonder if the two traits are linked: if you have a […]
Read more...Unlike its US counterparts, the Financial Times has consistently been on top of the various unsavory elements of the credit market bubble: the near disappearance of risk premia, the growth of leverage on leverage, the lack of investor sophistication. A piece by John Plender does a very good job of connecting some of the dots […]
Read more...Although it’s the Dow’s new highs that get the headlines, the really speculative action is taking place in the debt markets. As we have discussed in past posts, lenders and bondholders have abandoned their customary caution and are accepting yields that many feel are inadequate for the risks involved, and are also waiving customary covenants, […]
Read more...The Financial Times appears to have scooped the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, and the New York Times on a Bank of International Settlements report due out today, which says that investment banks are too cozy with hedge funds and that isn’t very good for the financial system. The BIS report calls for greater disclosure of […]
Read more...Michael Panzner of Financial Armageddon provides a nice synopsis of the oft-unappreciated adverse consequences of securitization. One element that is not inherent but seems inevitable is that the profits in the transaction are front-loaded, taken more as fees and less as spreads over the cost of funding over the life of the transaction. As he […]
Read more...The question of systemic risk, that is, the possibility of a generalized failure of the financial system, such as a stock market crash, is something that regulators think about a great deal and quite deliberately discuss a good bit less, since fear becomes a driving element in any market panic. The reason for the heightened […]
Read more...Bernanke normally adopts a measured tone and, as befits someone whose words can move markets, takes great care not to dwell too heavily on bad news. So it was suprising to see him issue a fairly pointed statement on risks to the banking system. His remarks on the perils of private equity loans, when taken […]
Read more...Oddly, this story, which runs in today’s Financial Times, does not seem to have been reported in the Wall Street Journal or the New York Times (and perhaps not on Bloomberg either, but I am less certain since its search tools for the great unwashed aren’t foolproof). The findings, at least for the Fed, are […]
Read more...Due to Paul Volcker’s having broken the back of inflation in the early 1980s, and Alan Greenspan performing what appears to be adequately on the substance of his job and masterfully at the showmanship, the Fed’s reputation is at an all time high. And that in and of itself is a danger sign. The Fed’s […]
Read more...While most US readers believe that the Journal’s ideological bias is limited to its editorial pages, we have repeatedly seen (and commented on) skewed reporting as well. Specifically, the Journal tends to put a positive spin on economic (as opposed to company-specific) reporting. Today’s object lesson is the Bank of England’s latest edition of its […]
Read more...In an interview with the Financial Times, Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock, one of the world’s largest fund management groups, warns of burgeoning risk in the leveraged loan market, arguing it has the potential to go the way of subprimes, and urges the Fed to take interest. Now this story has more significance than […]
Read more...It’s one thing when people who have little to no experience in the financial markets worry about the risks posed by derivatives and other innovative financial products. It’s quite another when a concerned individual also happens to have been deeply involved in risk management at major Wall Street firms. The financial markets insider is Richard […]
Read more...John Kay in the Financial Times gives the best layman’s explanation I have seen of the most widely used risk management approach in financial institutions, value at risk (VAR) and tells us what’s wrong with it. In a nutshell, VAR assumes a normal distribution of events (aka a bell curve). The problem is that prices […]
Read more...You seldom hear language like this from anyone in the deal community, particularly a borrower. But Steve Rattner, head of Quadrangle Partners, sees himself as not just your average LBO maven, but also a thoughtful Democrat (he was expected to get a post in a Kerry administration). But also notice that his comments in a […]
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