Forgive us if we seem to be picking on New York Fed president Timothy Geithner. Actually, not that we know him, but he has a reputation (by Fed standards) for candor. So the problems we have with his speech should not be seen as an attack on him, but on the increasing difficulty of the […]
Read more...Most sophisticated financial people I know take great comfort from the happy resolution of the LTCM debacle. As you may know, LTCM (Long Term Capital Management) was a hedge fund created by John Meriwether, a star trader from Salomon who headed its highly profitable bond arbitrage group, and included two Nobel prize winners among its […]
Read more...Compared to other Fed presidents, Timothy Geithner is straightforward and more than usually willing to talk about bad things. So when he gives a speech that is comparatively upbeat, as he did earlier this week (“Credit Markets Innovations and Their Implications“) it should be reassuring. So why did this speech bother me? It wasn’t as […]
Read more...The financial press has fretted that the problems in the subprime market may spread to other parts of the mortgage market. While defaults and delinquencies aren’t contagious, investors can get nervous and decide they may have been overly optimistic about risks in safer parts of the market. But the next likely casualty isn’t higher grade […]
Read more...Mark Thoma on Economist’s View, sums up his view in his headline, “Kenneth Rogoff: German Leaders Are Right About Hedge Fund Transparency and Regulation“. Rogoff takes issue with Paulson’s dismissal of the idea of making hedge funds more accountable. It’s odd that Paulson even thinks he had a vote on this issue, since the Treasury […]
Read more...Oh, how the mighty are fallen… Some of the biggest securities firms’ own debt instruments are now trading as if they were five grades below their current S&P and Moody’s ratings. It’s pretty common when the credit quality of a company is deteriorating that the markets will mark it down before the rating agencies can […]
Read more...Berkshire Hathaway’s annual report is out, and with it, Warren Buffet’s famous letter to shareholders. I took a quick look, and found the Financial Times’ take on the main points (“Buffet attacks hedge fund fees“) is as good as anything I could say: Warren Buffett, the world’s second-richest person, on Thursday stepped up his criticism […]
Read more...Just a couple of posts ago, we complained about Bernanke talking up the stock market. While that may indeed have been what he was doing (and we don’t approve of that), he may also have been trying to slow action in the credit markets, and that is a legitimate use of his power of the […]
Read more...No, we don’t mean the end of the world, but the end of this credit cycle. An aside: forgive us if you found some of our posts last week sketchier than usual. We’re at a location with very erratic broadband, which makes it hard to get anything Internet-related done efficiently. We’ve run a few comments […]
Read more...Here’s some lighter fare, but in keeping with post above, from Minyanville via Barry Ritzhold’s The Big Picture: Once upon a time there was a family of three bears, a mama bear, a papa bear and a baby bear. This family of bears lived in a quiet cottage in the woods. One day, waiting for […]
Read more...While this topic may seem a bit esoteric to some readers, it is just about the most simple-minded trade in the financial markets, which is precisely why so many players are involved in it. You borrow in a currency that has low prevailing interest rates, like the yen, and invest in instruments in a currency […]
Read more...We’ve taken note of excessive optimism and leverage (see, as examples, “The Rising Tide of Liquidity” and “More Signs of a Toppy Market“). Now the European Central Bank is also sounding cautionary notes. Ever since Alan Greenspan’s famous “irrational exuberance” observation produced a 140 point (then 2%) fall in the Dow, central bankers have been […]
Read more...We’ve commented from time to time on loose credit conditions (see our “Rising Tide of Liquidity“, plus Part 2 and Part 3 on the same topic) and indifference to risk (“Where Has the (Perception of) Risk Gone?“). The tide may be turning. Today, the New York Times had a lengthy, well researched article, “Tremors at […]
Read more...We have pointed out various signs of complacency in financial markets regarding risk: declining credit spreads (January 16), a lack of concern about systemically high use of leverage (previous post plus January 18), and technical indications that suggest we are near a stock market peak (January 22). Yet there is an almost irrationally high level […]
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