Category Archives: Science and the scientific method

Why is the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill an Information Dead Zone?

It isn’t hard to see that the lack of decent information about how serious the Deepwater Horizon oil spill is is almost certainly due to obfuscation on the part of BP. The puzzling part is how BP can fantasize that it ultimately gains from this conduct, and why the Obama Administration tolerates it. The frustration […]

India Defies Monsanto, Says No to GMO Crops

We’ve followed the story of the slow but increasing and badly needed pushback against Monsanto’s predatory business practices, which force farmers to buy Monsanto seed annually, rather than re-use it. Worse, Monsanto seed has been genetically engineered so as to require the use of Monsanto herbicides and fertilizers. And with (until recently) the seeds patent […]

Monsanto GM Corn Linked to Organ Damage in Animals

One of my friends is a biomedical engineer who gave up doing science because it involved too much drawing of lines through scatter diagrams to claim the existence of relationships in order to keep the grant money coming in. She got a law degree, and worked for the National Institutes of Health, Big Pharma, a […]

Guest Post: Economists Are Trained to Ignore the Real World

By George Washington of Washington’s Blog. As I have repeatedly noted, mainstream economists and financial advisors have been using faulty and unrealistic models for years. See this, this, this, this, this and this. And I have pointed out numerous times that economists and advisors have a financial incentive to use faulty models. For example, I […]

Guest Post: Investor Psychology … Fear Turns People Into Sheep

By George Washington of Washington’s Blog. Investors are basically rational, right? In fact, as many studies have demonstrated, the answer is no. But instead of wading through all of the investment psychology research, let’s look at research into people’s basic reasoning abilities. Bear with me for a minute. A study in an area unrelated to […]

Gas Mask Bra Among Ig Nobel Winners

I have to admit, I have a weakness for the intersection of the daft and science: Male readers will no doubt assume that this means the original owner of the gas mask bra must strip in the case of emergency, and that that the real point of this exercise. But the bra was designed by […]

Study Asserts World’s Stocks Controlled by "Select Few"

Conspiracy theorists will have to wait until the article described in Inside Science is published to determine whether it delivers on its claims. It purports to analyze stock holding across 48 countries and alleges they are held in very few hands. But the work was done by physicists, which means they may not have understood […]

Guest Post: Is the Problem the Models or the Modelers?

Submitted by Richard Alford, a former economist at the New York Fed. Since them, he has worked in the financial industry as a trading floor economist and strategist on both the sell side and the buy side. The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our model, but in ourselves–apologies to W Shakespeare The economics profession […]

Guest Post: Review of Pablo Triana’s "Lecturing Birds on Flying"

Submitted by Richard Smith: This is the Black Swan gospel according to Triana. Taleb endorses it in a characteristically incendiary and intemperate foreword. He does come out all guns blazing, and you just have to go with that. Or chuck a glass of water over him, if he’s in range, I suppose. A quick recap […]

Taleb Presentation on the Fourth Quadrant

Nassim Nicholas Taleb gave a presentation in New York yesterday which hews closely to a recent piece of his, although his talk did include some additional interesting charts and anecdotes. The article is worthwhile, and worth your attention, but let me highlight the two things I found most interesting. First was his “fourth quadrant” construct. […]

Harvard, Princeton Economists Say No Fire Sale Prices, Premise of Public-Private Partnership Wrong

We have been saying for some time that the policy premise of the Fed and Treasury has been that the financial crisis is that it is a liquidity crisis, not a solvency crisis. If you are of that school, the fallen prices of various assets is due to a combination of scarcity of funding plus […]

Tim Duy Versus Hedge Fund Manager Scott on the Economy

Full disclosure: I have a great deal of respect for both Tim Duy and the hedge fund manager Scott who is also quoted in this post. As you will see, Duy wrote an interesting post addressing a question posed by Brad DeLong, in essence “Since we are in the midst of the worst financial crisis […]

Taleb’s Harsh Assessment of Bankers, Economists, and the Fed

Reader Michael called to my attention a wide-ranging interview with Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the Black Swan and professional iconoclast, in the Times of London. The article is colorful, wide-ranging, and a bit long, so I’ve excerpted some of the most provocative bits. Needless to say, I am particularly taken by his dim view […]