Category Archives: The dismal science

Auerback/Parenteau: Jackson Hole will be a Black Hole for Those Hoping for QE3

By Marshall Auerback, a portfolio strategist, hedge fund manager, and Roosevelt Institute Fellow, and Rob Parenteau, CFA, sole proprietor of MacroStrategy Edge, editor of The Richebacher Letter, and a research associate of The Levy Economics Institute. Cross posted from New Economic Perspectives

Those leading the charge for “fiscal consolidation” now seem positively shocked by the violent gyrations in the stock market, as expectations rapidly seem to be shifting toward an “L” shaped recovery or worse – a possible global recession. To those of us on this blog who have consistently downplayed the prospects of global recovery in the midst of widespread private sector AND public sector retrenchment, none of this sadly comes as a surprise. We are, as Bill Mitchell noted recently, experiencing a “self-inflicted catastrophe”, largely because of dangerously destructive myths in regard to the efficacy (or lack of it) in regard to fiscal policy. But in spite of the shrill rhetoric of the fiscal austerian brigades, the markets are beginning to intuit that a nation cannot have a fiscal contraction expansion when all other spending is flat or going backwards and yet that remains the general trajectory of policy.

Philip Pilkington: Profits in a Capitalist Economy – Where Do They Come From, Where Do They Go?

By Philip Pilkington, a journalist and writer living in Dublin, Ireland

The engine that drives enterprise is not thrift, but profit – John Maynard Keynes

Profits are without doubt the key driving force in a capitalist economy. No respectable entrepreneur would try to sell goods or services were they not to make some sort of profit out of it. And yet profits are spoken of surprisingly little in mainstream neoclassical economics. For the neoclassicals there is, in fact, a deafening silence surrounding the role that profits play in the functioning of our economies; economies that are, of course, founded on the profit motive.

For example, if we turn to a fairly standard mainstream textbook – in this case Samuelson and Nordhaus’ ‘Economics: Fifteenth Edition’ – we find just how little neoclassical economics concerns itself with profits (some will say that Samuelson is a Keynesian, indeed he would probably have said so himself, but Samuelson is not really a Keynesian, his ‘neoclassical synthesis’ was just a grafting of a vulgarised Keynes onto the neoclassical edifice). This 800-odd page book devotes all of three pages to the topic. And even in this short space the authors are vague and fuzzy. We are told that profits come from ‘a hodgepodge of different elements’; that they are earned as a ‘reward for bearing risk’ and that occasionally they take the shape of ‘monopoly returns’. At no point do the authors even dare to suggest where profits come from.

This must appear to anyone with even a cursory interest in how our economies work as a rather unusual evasion. And it should. Usually when people are evasive on such important issues it is because – whether they know it or not – they are hiding something. In this case the authors are – again, whether they know it or not – hiding something extremely important; namely: the origin, source and function of profits in a capitalist economy.

For whatever reason

Cross-posted from Credit Writedowns Paul Krugman has another piece up on MMT. I like this piece a lot more than the last one he wrote. I suggest you read it. Here’s the one passage I do find troubling, however: Let’s have a more or less concrete example. Suppose that at some future date — a […]

Summer rerun: Misunderstanding Modern Monetary Theory

This is a post I wrote last summer clarifying some points that I have learned about Modern Monetary Theory. The genesis of the post was a gross mischaracterization of Modern Money Theory (MMT) by Paul Krugman in a piece called “I Would Do Anything For Stimulus, But I Won’t Do That (Wonkish)”, which Paul Krugman […]

Why “Business Needs Certainty” is Destructive

This is the start of my final guest post in Glenn Greenwald’s slot at Salon:

If you read the business and even the political press, you’ve doubtless encountered the claim that the economy is a mess because the threat to reregulate in the wake of a global-economy-wrecking financial crisis is creating “uncertainty.” That is touted as the reason why corporations are sitting on their hands and not doing much in the way of hiring and investing.

This is propaganda that needs to be laughed out of the room.
Read more...

Rob Johnson and Tom Ferguson on the Real Meaning of the S&P Downgrade and the Market Reaction

I feel as if I am too often making excuses for coming across good material on the late side, but between being distracted by the market gyrations of last week and figuring out how to write to Salon readers, I’m even more behind the eight ball than usual. But our initial reader comments confirm our instincts that this material is very relevant.

Readers have responded well in the past to Tom Ferguson’s cut-to-the-chase, curmudgeonly style, but I also wanted to call your attention to Rob Johnson’s observations. Rob, by contrast, is a very measured speaker, so on his scale of discourse, his remarks about Obama are remarkably blunt.

“Freedom Versus Markets”

Yves here. Blogger Sell on News echoes an argument made in ECONNED, namely, that “free markets” are a contradictory and incoherent construct, albeit from a different perspective. He also advocates another view near and dear to our heart, namely getting rid of economists (actually, that is overkill and will never happen. Keynes had it right: “If economists could manage to get themselves thought of as humble, competent people on a level with dentists, that would be splendid.”)

By Sell on News, a macro equities analyst . Cross posted from MacroBusiness

Probably the most wicked intellectual subterfuge of the last three decades — and goodness knows there have been many — has been the pretence that democracy and markets are two sides of the same coin.

Dalia Marin on Outsourcing, Income Inequality, CEO Pay

Dalia Marin, who Chair in International Economics at the University of Munich, discusses “new new trade theory” and how it looks at phenomena that don’t fit into older models of trade, particularly outsourcing and offshoring. Her work is empirical and here she discusses wage differentials and the various rationales for why CEO pay has exploded in the US. I think readers will enjoy this interview.

Marshall Auerback: A Beer(s) Hall Putsch From the Rentiers?

By Marshall Auerback, a hedge fund manager and portfolio strategist

So the ratings agencies have reared their ugly heads again. David Beers, head of S&P’s government debt rating unit, announced Friday night that S&P has downgraded the U.S. credit rating for the first time, from AAA to AA+. It’s a sham: S&P’s whole analytical framework reflects ignorance about modern money. If the US government, Treasury, and the Federal Reserve, capitulate to this outrageous act of economic extortion, it will effectively be sanctioning a beer hall putsch by the rentier class.

James Galbraith on How Fraud and Bad Economic Thinking Got Us in This Mess

Yves here. Our resident mortgage maven Tom Adams pointed me to a speech by James Galbraith via selise at FireDogLake, which discusses, among other things, how certain key lines of thinking are effectively absent from economics, as well as a lengthy discussion of the failure to consider the role of fraud. Galbraith is not exaggerating. The landmark 1994 paper on looting, or bankruptcy for profit, by George Akerlof and Paul Romer, was completely ignored from a policy standpoint even though it explained why the US had a savings and loan crisis.

Similarly, Galbraith refers to an incident at the most recent Institute for New Economic Thinking conference, in which he stood up and said, more or less, that he couldn’t believe he has just heard a panel discussion on the financial crisis and no one mentioned fraud. The stunning part was how utterly unreceptive the panel and the audience were to his observation. You’d think he’d had the bad taste to say the host had syphilis.

I strongly urge you to read the entire piece; non-economists may want to skim the first third and focus on the crisis material and what follows. This is the key paragraph:

This is the diagnosis of an irreversible disease. The corruption and collapse of the rule of law, in the financial sphere, is basically irreparable. It’s not just that restoring trust takes a long time. It’s that under the new technological order in this field, it can not be done. The technologies are designed to sow and foster distrust and that is the consequence of using them. The recent experience proves this, it seems to me. And therefore there can be no return to the way things were before. In other words, we are at the end of the illusion of a market place in the financial sphere.

“Time to Take Stock”

Yves here. I had come across the speech mentioned in this post, “The Race to Zero” by Andrew Haldane of the Bank of England and decided not to write it up because I had come across it a bit late. This post will probably persuade readers that that was a bad call.

By Sell on News, a macro equities analyst. Cross posted from MacroBusiness

Exactly how did we get into this mess with the capital markets? A situation where the global stock of derivatives is over $US600 trillion, which is about twice the capital stock of the world. A situation where high frequency trading is over two thirds of the transactions on the NYSE and about the same in the stock markets of the UK and Europe. Likewise they are over half the action in foreign exchange markets and they are rapidly becoming dominant in the futures market. Andrew Haldane from the Bank of England is arguing against allowing high frequency trading — algorithms chasing algorithms chasing algorithms — from being allowed to proliferate pointing at volatility as the problem:

Cash Flow Discounting Leads to “Astronomically” Large Mistakes Over the Long Term

Your humble blogger is a vocal opponent of placing undue faith in single metrics and methodologies, like placing a lot of weight in total cholesterol as a measure of heart disease risk. One of the most troubling examples is the totemic status of discounted cash flow based analyses. It’s a weird defect of human wiring that reducing a story about the future to a spreadsheet and then discounting the resulting cash flows (which means you are now layering a second story, about what you think reasonable investment returns will be over that time period) is treated as having a solidity and weight that simply is not there, a reality of its own that manages to take precedence over the murky future it is meant to help understand.

An article by physicist Marc Buchanan in Bloomberg gives a layperson’s summary of an important paper by Yale economist John Geanakoplos, and Doyne Farmer, a physicist at the Santa Fe Institute. It shows that the conventional use of discounted cash flow models over long time periods, as is often the case when discussing environmental impacts, is fatally flawed.

Victor Shih on the Risk of Capital Fleeing China

We’ve written about Victor Shih’s work on Chinese banks and wealthy households. He argues that the Chinese financial system and economy are at risk if enough capital moves overseas. While the release of this video is coming at a juncture when the US and Europe seem to be engaged in a beauty contest between Cinderella’s stepsisters, Chinese business have been making aggressive investments in other economies as well, such as agricultural land in Africa, so it’s worth remembering that advanced economies are far from the only targets for offshore funds.

This video gives a short, high level overview of his provocative thesis. Enjoy!