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Iran War Watch: US Moves Towards Attack Footing Despite Questionable Odds of Success

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Perhaps the further increase of US military assets in the Iran theater is merely intensified threat display. But there are signs that, parallel to King Croesus’ disastrous misreading of the Oracle of Delphi, that the US and Israel continue to think that Iran is more vulnerable than it is and that another hard kick would topple its government, or at least so weaken it as to put that aim closer to realization. It also seems, analogous to the Collective West underestimation of Russia’s capabilities and staying power, that the US and Israel are greatly discounting Iran’s ability to do great damage to Israel, US assets in the region, and the world economy.

US and Israel determination to subjugate Iran reads as if they believe they hold a trump card. But the last two times Israel tried supposed show-stoppers, they fell considerably short. The first was in the 12 Day War, where Israel’s one-two punch of knocking out Iran’s air defenses and killing key officials only resulted in 8 hours of outage, as opposed to an expected 2-3 days, and Iran quickly regaining its operational footing. No Iranian leader or important faction supported the destabilization effort. Similarly, in the recent wave of protests that turned bloody due to US and Israeli escalation, the Iranians again regained control quickly when they shut down communications, most importantly of Starlink, which thwarted the agitators’ campaign to throw Iran into a paroxysm of violence.

Benjamin Netanyahu is flying to the US tomorrow for a meeting Wednesday. Some view this as an effort to reinforce Israel’s demands, which are impossible for Iran to meet. They are:

Or could this be a minor deception attempt and that the US will attack when Netanyahu is in the US?

Iran has made clear it will not do so now if attacked again, even one the US makes and tries to depict as for show.

On an interview with Danny Haipong, Justin Podhur clarified that Iran does not have “proxies” but its allies Ansar Allah, Hezbollah, and Shia militias in Iraq have all said they will respond if the US attacks Iran. Podhur further notes that during the 12 Day War, Jordan and the Saudis fired missiles against Iran, but Iran only hit Israel. Iran has warned that any country that attacks Iran will be targeted this time. Iran could easily turn Saudi Arabia into an economic and environmental disaster zone if it struck its oil fields.1

Even more important, Alastair Crooke has stated that if Iran is attacked, the Supreme Leader will issue a fatwa. Shia have substantial representation across the Middle East, such as 13% of Saudis. Crooke claims that the resulting uprisings would make Arab Spring look like a walk in the park.

We explained long-form in a recent post how the US forces then in theater were insufficient for the US to achieve regime change or meaningfully advance the the Israeli goal of breaking up Iran, even before getting to the costs Iran could inflict by closing the Strait of Hormuz and bombing Israel and US bases. Independent experts continue to be skeptical even with the US further bulking up its forces. Larry Johnson and former Royal Navy Commodore Steve Jermy have both argues that the most the US could do with its naval assets would be a short campaign, of say 5 days as very high intensity or at most two weeks at a less aggressive tempo. More recent takes on what the US could do from its airbases point to a similar ability to sustain a painful campaign. A critical limit is that the US cannot bring in its B-52s (which can drop super heavy bombs) without undue risk; recall Iran allowed them in to hit nuclear sites at the end of the 12 Day War, which is has said clearly it will not permit again.

In an admission of weakness, the US again asked Iran to accept performative tit for tat strikes which Iran again rejected.

The US also cheekily asked Iran to negotiate against itself:

Yet Israelis seem bizarrely confident. From a reader who does business with Israel:

On how Israelis feel about the impending war:

With a sample size of about 12 Israelis, the general feeling of the Israelis about the next round with Iran is not only is it going to happen but Israel is going to buy a decade of stability by doing whatever it is they’re going to do. Most of them are not supporters of the Netanyahu regime and none of them are settler types, all are sabras so they have parents and children in the country. Only one of them has moved their children out of the country, and he did that before the 12 days. Only one of them was extending a trip to stay past Friday in the event the strikes started before this past weekend….

I think we’re less than 2 weeks from the war resuming. I think the 20th of February is the most likely kickoff but it could start as soon as this Friday the 13th.

Perhaps the Israelis think if the US makes a forceful attack that it can bring Iran to its knees via destruction of critical infrastructure, such as water systems or its grid? We highlighted that Greg Stoker reported that Israel’s defense minister delivered a strike package in late January.

Key Iranians similarly doubt the US is posturing:

The US continues to move materiel into the region:

In keeping, Daniel Davis, who is not a hair on fire type, posted a pretty alarmed take on where things were headed on Sunday.

Starting at 3:10:

So all that continues to tell you is that the two sides are miles apart which leads to the the question are these negotiations intended to accomplish anything other than to make it appear that everyone’s trying to be reasonable but it’s actually just buying time for military preparations.

Now that is is a is a normal thing that you could even think of just in a concept but when you look at the physical activities it takes on even more relevancy. Uh for example, here in just the last 48 hours or so, uh there has been a continued buildup and this is as of yesterday. [Reading] A total of 112 US Air Force C-17s have now either arrived or are in route to the Middle East with a further 17 to 18 in progress flights, number Royal Air Force logistics flights from RAF Marham to RAF Akotiri (sorry about that pronunciation) in Cyprus. and Movement of the US Air Force CORONETs.

So there’s lots of air force. If you don’t know those C-17s, one of the pictures right there, these are the large transports. You can move tanks in these things, large combat vehicles, air defense missiles. These are some of the aircraft that’s used to use a lot of the air offensive and air defensive missiles into the region. And you see there is a huge huge number much much more than anything normal implying that you have been moving lots and lots of equipment and ammunition in uh there has also just been in the last 48 hours or so according to channel 14 out of Israel US has finalized the deployment of Patriot and THAAD missiles defense system across 20 bases in the Middle East. 20 bases.

So, this tells you that we are seriously taking the issue of air defense seriously. And of course, listen, it’s it goes without saying, but I’m going to say it anyway. You’re not going to move in a buttload of air defense systems unless you expect to receive a lot of missiles. Meaning, this is much, much more than just the normal deployment.

And when you take a look at the bases that are scattered throughout the region, you see that there is a lot there. And listen, I mean, it’s it’s useful and necessary to have additional missiles and all these other air defense capabilities, whether it’s THAAD or Patriot or anything else, but as I have talked about many times, and the Iranians have proven last year especially, their offensive missiles will get through our defenses. We’ll shoot some of it down, but not all of it. So if anybody thinks that this is going to be some kind of golden dome in the in the early stages or something and that everything is going to get stopped, you need to just disabuse yourself of that. It’s definitely not going to happen. So that’s that’s on the ground.

Then of course uh we have in the air and in the sea you know the Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group is on site has been for a while is fully deployed and in a position to launch military offensive operations as you can see scattered in that picture up to the upper left hand side. There’s additional offensive air power that’s also been deployed throughout the region that can be brought to bear in the event that an attack is shifted there.

Alexander Mercouris, at the end of his Sunday presentation, sounded a similar alarm about US intent.

Starting at 1:15:25:

Now, I have to say that over the last 24 hours, I have been getting an awful lot of extremely worrying reports and messages from all sorts of very well-informed people about the situation in between the United States and Iran.

Some of these people who have been I’ve been in correspondence with are people who are very well known to viewers of these programs. Just to say I say that they’re people who have been there and who made their views known and who’ve appeared on channels and programs and who I know to be extremely well informed. As these were private messages, I don’t want to disclose who they are, but there are also people who to my knowledge are extremely well-informed about the mood in the United States.

[Iran’s Foreign Minister] Araghchi and Witkoff and Kushner in Oman, the meeting that was mediated by the Omani foreign minister who shuttled from one room to the other. Even as the Iranians tell themselves that that meeting went well, the Americans are in a mood of borderline fury and rage.

The Iranians came with no substantive concessions. They continue to insist that they have a right to conduct enrichment, including on their territory. They are not prepared to discuss ballistic missiles. There’s been some word, there’s been all of these other plans about a consortium set up with the various Arab states of Rostom, the Russian nuclear power company participating in enrichment.
These, of course, in my opinion, are all entirely proper and viable solutions to this crisis.

But the United States was expecting clearly from Iran a lot an awful lot more. They were expecting far more substantive concessions to be made for Iran to say that it was about to give up its enrichment or for Iran to make concessions about its ballistic missiles.

I think the Americans were also shocked that the Iranians are not as frightened by the revelation from the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that it was indeed the United States which back in December engineered the crash of the Iranian currency, the rial according to Bessent, they did it by creating a shortage of dollars in within Iran itself. This led to the imminent collapse of an Iranian bank. The Iranian central bank had to step in to bail out that bank. That caused the Iranian central bank, forced the Iranian central bank to print or create more rial that led to an over-supply of rial within the Iranian domestic market which caused the rial to crash. Scott Besssent, who of course has worked with Soros, is himself an expert, I should say, in doing this sort of thing.

Anyway, the Americans may have been expecting that the Iranians would be alarmed and upset by this and frightened by these revelations coming out of the United States. And they are enraged and very angry that the Iranians did not concede.

And all of the talk as I understand it in in Washington is of war again of an attack on Iran. And in what I consider to be a very ominous development, Witkoff and Kushner after meeting with Araghchi apparently flew to the USS Abraham Lincoln and actually toured the carrier itself, and presumably spoke to the crew.

So, I’m afraid it does look to me as if there is now a very high probability indeed of some kind of an attack on Iran within the next few hours or days. I’ve read an article today in the Daily Telegraph by a former Royal Navy officer casting doubt on whether such an operation can succeed. I’ve also read other reports, by the way, which might suggest that there are indeed plans to place boots on the ground in Iran, even plans to try to seize the oil rich provinces in southern Iran in Kistan and reports about an American operation in the north from the territory of either Azerbaijan or Armenia. on on that issue. By the way, President Aliyev [of Azerbaijan] has assured the Iranians that that is not going to happen and the Russians who have very very close monitoring of the situation in Armenia are not speaking or talking about any major American buildup there.

And I wonder to be honest how it can happen given that Armenia has no coastline and large concentrations of American troops would have to cross the border from other countries which might not be particularly keen on such an operation taking place.

But anyway, one way or the other, the situation is extremely tense and the Iranians may think that they did very well for themselves in the diplomacy. But I think that what they need to do over the next few hours is prepare for the attack, which it is quite likely is going to come.

An aside about Bessent bragging about crashing the Iranian rial. Your humble blogger has criticized that as characteristically arrogant and bone-headed. First, it shows that despite trying to make a show of concern about the Iranian people in the protests, the US will harm them cavalierly to advance it and Israel’s stature in the region. Second, Bessent’s crowing told the Iranian people that their distress was the result of US machinations, and not fundamental, internal factors. That supports the (largely true) official version of events, that the sorry state of the Iranian economy is due primarily to the US effort to crush the country.2

Independent commentators have also pointed out that regime change, balkanization, or acute destabilization of Iran would threaten Russia and China. While Russia and Iran do not share a land border, Iran like Russia is on the Caspian Sea, so a broken Iran would be too close for comfort. Russia warned the US about a month ago about the serious consequences of a US war against Iran, not that the US paid much heed.

However, while Russia and China have been increasing their support for Iran’s defenses, it is not clear that they have yet done anything decisive. For instance, after the 12 Day War, Iran relented on its desire to be as independent as possible and agreed to Russia’s offer to build an integrated air defense. But that is a >2 year project. For instance, Alexander Mercouris reported last month that Russia had not delivered S-400 air defense systems yet but was training Iranian operators in Russia, which was expected to take over a year 3 Some tweets in the last month claim that Russia has made fresh S-400 deliveries to Iran….which would be useless unless Russia also provided personnel to fire them.

Russia appears to accelerated deliveries of hardware:

This is a big claim, so take with a fistful of salt for now:

Iran is on or near Belt and Road routes that China regards as essential to reduce its reliance on shipping and vulnerability to US naval threats.

At the end of January, China cleverly boosted Iran’s ISR by making public useful satellite images:

China is rumored to be providing advanced electronic warfare systems:

Even if true, how quickly can they be made effective?

However, there seems to be at least one verified (and important) example:

The GPS changeover has been reported by some YouTubers, which if true, means Iran can jam US GPS while maintaining its operations:

Needless to say, the apparent rigidity of US and Israel goals, along with potentially deficient and/or wishful intelligence may be about to meet a big reality check. The intense emotional reaction that Alexander Mercouris reports is another bad sign, of irrationality at not having expectations met.

The last time we saw over-wrought emotions at a geopolitically key inflection point was at the February 2022 Munich Security Conference, where the participants were giddy over the imminent prospect of war with Russia. But unlike then, it is unlikely to take years for a massive Western miscalculation to play out.

_____

1 Jordan is such a captive of the US that it would almost certainly support a US operation.

2 Asian Boss has provided a useful backgrounder on Iran’s increasing difficulty in managing its currency regime, but IMHO greatly underplays how the US sanctions forced Iran to have to manage and then arguably mis-manage its foreign exchange. He also ignores, as many commentators do, how Iran having to invest so much in defense, as in missiles, drones, and huge underground bunkers all over the country, would come at the expense of consumption.

Past Russian efforts to help blunt the impact of sanctions were not enough to turn the tide:

3 Twitter mentions that some years back, Russia previously “gifted” S-400s to Iran. Forgive me for not running it down, but my impression is that Iranian operators were not trained so that makes their value limited.

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93 comments

  1. Yves Smith Post author

    Conor graciously put up this post for me. Conor had been blocked too but was intermittently able to get through. I thought I was OK because I could access the backstage and clear comments but then tried to put this up just before Links firing time and was unable to on 2 different browsers and with a VPN off and then on. This created much hysteria on my end. ….later than was ideal, but late is better than never. Among other things, this post was not included in our daily e-mail :-(

    This is the result of being under either an attack or AI operating like a saboteur, since the site was being continuously scraped. Dave our tech maven tightened the Cloudflare security settings….but I cannot fathom how any security setting that prevents admins from posting is sane. So tech misbehavior on multiple fronts.

    So again, AI really is out to destroy this site. My hostility to it is fully warranted.

    1. Carolinian

      Saw Vance on TV saying America must be made safe from Iranian terrorists with nuclear devices so that is no doubt the line they will take if the worst. Guess I better go fill up my car.

    2. ambrit

      That explains a lot concerning the travails encountered using NC recently.
      Yesterday, when I clicked through to NC, I encountered for the first time an opening page that was a Captcha page. It was a full screen page and was only up for two or three seconds. It had Naked Capitalism mentioned as the source in the header. Curiously, I did not have to do anything before it switched itself off. It was just there for a second and then gone.
      I would question who this AI “works” for. Someone has to have written the code that governs the behaviour of the so called AI.
      Stay safe.

      1. Carolinian

        Yesterday I saw that article about all the trouble Mearsheimer has been having with the hundreds of AI fake videos mocking or subverting him on Youtube. And it’s not just hasbara hackers because my brother tells me figures like Feynman also have these fake videos being made with words put in their mouths. AI is a frickin’ menace!

        1. Giovanni Barca

          Fake Bob Marley videos, fake Miles Davis videos. And they all seem to promote discord or tales of discord. never too soon to start planning that butlerian jee hahd.

    3. DJG, Reality Czar

      Yves Smith: Argggggh.

      Solidarity.

      I understand the predicament. I have a comment in moderation (and I’m not complaining), likely caused by the same glitchiness. Insomma, here in Italy, we are seeing much, much foolish meddling by the government — the central government and the U.S. government (ICE scandal). There seem to be all kinds of antics going on these day — and cyberspace is a battleground.

      Wouldn’t want demonstrations against the wars and all…

    5. motorslug

      Perhaps there is a good Chinese (Huawei?) or Russian alternative to cloudflare. Seems all major problems in the past couple years have come from that gateway.

      1. Yves Smith Post author

        I know you mean to help, but you have this utterly backwards.

        Cloudflare has hands down the best bot list and best DDoS defense.

        I would never use anything Chinese for this purpose.

        1. Jake Dee

          There’s always going to be two sides to that Yves.
          Kiwifarms, not a New Zealand site but a rather spicy anon-gossip site was targeted by trans-activists who applied pressure on Cloudflare to cut them off. DDoS attacks then took them off line for several months until they developed an alternative.
          It’s a story worth investigation. If you aren’t comfortable with the East and if you get declared a politically unreliable dissenter by the West, then you may have to caucus with the independents for safety.

          1. Yves Smith Post author

            I hate to sound harsh, but don’t insistently offer unsolicited advice and cop a ‘tude via invoking my name as if addressing me tartly when one can easily infer that your knowledge is limited. I said I would never go to China for this. Have you ever tried runn a high-traffic website that almost certainly runs the biggest database on the WordPress platform via our 2 million comments and very high database refresh rate? Contracting in a foreign country that does not operate on either common low or civil law principles? I notice you are unable to recommend any alternatives, consistent with your probable lack of expertise.

            1. raspberry jam

              As an actual expert in this area I can confirm Cloudflare is the best option and there is no real Chinese competitor suitable for this site

    6. hk

      Ack, there seemed to be some odd things going on with the site–now, I have a better context. :/ Stay safe!

    7. thistlebreath

      Our experience w/Cloudflare during its early stages was not fun. Whatever you suspect is probably correct and likely much worse. We cancelled but sadly, what easily implemented competing products are available? Suggestions, anyone?

      In our next iteration of online creations, we’ll do our best to build in tarpits and mazes to deflect AI scraping and agentic spoof injections. The latter is much, much worse than traditional “SQL Injection” attacks (search query language).

      Time to re read that high school-assigned short story, “Leiningen Vs. The Ants.” Written in 1938, first published in Esquire.

  2. Adam1

    I’m pretty sure the crazy people in charge fully believe their own propaganda these days and assume Iran is an easy target. God help us all.

  3. Victor Sciamarelli

    In a 1946 essay George Orwell wrote, “The quickest way of ending a war is to lose it”. 
    It seems both Trump and Netanyahu have convinced themselves that Iran will quickly be on the losing end. There’s good evidence that Trump is misinformed about Iran’s weakness and Netanyahu is far too dependent on the US for Israel’s security. The best laid plans…

  4. flora

    Thanks for this post.
    One wonders how much harm and destruction Iran could drop on Isr if the US attacks. One would rather not find out.

  5. Bugs

    I saw the report that Netanyahoo was going to Washington right above the article about the Iranians being sure of their firm position in today’s The Hindu, and my heart sank. I think the MO will be as before. Bibi locks down Trump to do it and then flies back to his bunker waiting for the action to start. God help us.

  6. The Rev Kev

    Helluva post this. An attack could be imminent as Netanyahu is safe and sound in America so can go ahead and order an attack to begin. I find it hard to believe that Trump is idiotic enough to take part in an attack because if it does not go off perfectly, then this war will dog him for the next coupla months leading into the midterms. Remember that there was a report that Trump wants the war in the Ukraine to end in June to clear space for the midterms too. How will Trump sell this war if the US starts to take heavy casualties in the Middle East, oil skyrockets as Iran has shut the Strait of Hormuz, and as the US has targeted Iranian civilian infrastructure, Iran has then targeted Israeli infrastructure such as their desalination plants. Will the Israelis even be taking part in the fighting? Or will they just offer to make the sandwiches for the US force. What surprises has the Chinese and the Russians prepared. Iran has apparently just upgraded their ballistic missiles so what does that mean exactly? Trump can start this war but has zero control after the first day or so. If this war goes south for Trump, then his domestic agenda is over and Republican seats will be up for grabs in November. So does Trump feel lucky? Or is he just another punk?

    1. Jack

      There was an article in the WAPO this am discussing Trump and the mid-terms. Apparently he doesn’t seem that interested in them. Also said this; “Democrats, however, don’t need a 2018-size blue wave to win the House, where Republicans currently hold the narrowest possible majority and are defending 14 seats rated as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report. Democrats are defending four toss-up seats, and Cook shifted 18 seats in their favor in January.” It might be that Trump has already written off a win in November. Better to accede to the pressure he must be getting from the neo-con Zionists and their backers. And too, what is Trump’s mental state now? It appears that he is more addled than a year ago.

      1. Lefty Godot

        Trump may not be interested because what difference would it make to him if a blue wave of Democrats took the House? As long as the blue team can’t get a ⅔ majority in the Senate, Trump will never be convicted in any impeachment trial and removed from office. And Trump pays little attention to what Congress is doing anyway, because few people there disagree with his program: more war, more money for the Pentagon, more money for DHS, faithful service to AIPAC, lower taxes on the wealthy and corporations, keeping the stock market up, law and order wherever suspiciously pigmented people can be found, etc. The Democrats have only minor quibbles with most of that, the Republicans even fewer. No one is stopping Trump from doing whatever he wants now, so his only concern about midterms is probably just the transient bad publicity he would get if the wrong right-wing party won big. But he’s shown the ability to outlast bad PR and come up with new distractions.

        1. Pokey

          If Trump allows Israel to start a war, and if we jump in and the war goes as far south as some think, conviction in the Senate is not off the table. I suspect the only thing holding some GOP senators back from voting to convict is fear of Trump’s retaliation. Fat, naked emperors do not inspire fear or awe.

          Trump’s base takes takes his boasts of our omnipotence at face value. Reality could be profoundly disturbing.

          I make a good many small contributions to candidates whose solicitations lead me to believe they would vote to get rid of Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer. There are some good stories, and one can hope.

    2. Rolf

      Trump can start this war but has zero control after the first day or so. If this war goes south for Trump, then his domestic agenda is over and Republican seats will be up for grabs in November.

      Exactly. I wonder how many of the GOP, outside of the usual nihilistic armchair zealots, will stand with him after this bloodbath.

    3. Kilgore Trout

      There is this perverse incentive for our deranged leaders: If the war goes badly, it gives Trump an excuse to declare martial law by invoking the Insurrection Act. Gas at 8 dollars a gallon would only be the start. Toss a couple nukes in for good measure, and we’re off to the races. He’d cancel the mid-terms, and eventually call off the 2028 election–assuming we’re all still here then.

    4. ChrisFromGA

      I’ll go with just another punk.

      Another factor is the mass depletion of Patriot interceptor missiles that would inevitably happen in an Iran/Israel war. Kiev is virtually defenseless. I guess Project Ukraine got thrown under the bus.

    6. thoughtfulperson

      I certainly hope the regime in Washington is still concerned about the congressional elections this coming November. However, they likely plan to just continue ruling by decree. Will congress try to stop them? Currently that seems unlikely.

      I’m not sure this regime cares about the chaos likely to be unleashed by more wars. As with the shock doctrine, the more chaos the better. Then the 2028 presidential election will be orchestrated under martial law. By 2028 I’m sure the regime will have a plan for counting the votes.

      Thanks to Yves and the NC team for the post and ongoing efforts!

      1. TimmyB

        Given how Democrats are also influenced by AIPAC and Zionists, the belief that Congress will try to make peace with Iran if the Dems win control seems misplaced. Biden did nothing to reverse Trump’s rejection of Obama’s nuclear agreement with Iran. Nor did the Democrats when they controlled the House and Senate.

        Frankly, depending on the Democratic Party to change the direction of the U.S. is a fool’s errand.

    7. ISL

      Unclear how much (if any) of the decision will be made by Trump, who is so popular in the Epstein files that he clearly has a special attention place in Mossad’s heart (and his kids too).

    8. Adam1

      I’m not convinced there will be elections in November and if they are they might be completely rigged (more so than usual).

    9. Ben Panga

      I find it hard to believe that Trump is idiotic enough to take part in an attack

      Unless there’s a safe somewhere in Israel with some photos/video inside.

      The US is captured by Zionists and I assume they’d want a leader they could motivate with both carrot and stick. Given how careless and profligate Trump has always been I assume there have been ample opportunities to find a stick. This MO fits with the long-used practices described in Whitney Webb’s One Nation Under Blackmail.

      My personal suspicion is that Netanyahu’s “hilarious” Golden Pager gift was a reminder that “you too can be destroyed remotely”.

      Losing the mid-terms is better than being proven to be a [something very bad].

        1. Ben Panga

          Thanks Yves, that’s an interesting watch.

          The really chilling bit of that video is at 20:10

          INTERVIEWER: And in the Samson option by Sy Hersh, I mean clearly Israel has this option to uh retaliate against a perceived enemy even if it’s going to destroy Israel itself. So what would a war on Iran look like? Uh there’s a huge amount of military in this region. uh when Iran retaliates with its uh hypersonic missiles, what would you expect Israel to do?

          ARI: If in my opinion, if the Israelis use nuclear weapons against the Iranians, it would be the end of Israel the way we know it today.

          INTERVIEWER: So, they wouldn’t use them. No, according to the Samson option, they would use them nevertheless.

          ARI: They would use it nevertheless.
          Yes, they would.
          And they wouldn’t uh think about the future. They would just use it because we’re dealing with a desper desperate group of people called the Israeli cabinet and government.
          that want to stay in power and alive.

          INTERVIEWER: And the Israeli nuclear weapon program, they don’t have a second switch in Washington like the British nuclear weapons that require United States approval. Netanyahu can just press the button any time.

          ARI: I believe that Netanyahu and his uh group can press the button at any time.

          1. WJ

            Yes. I too believe that any protracted war against Iran–and this next one will be protracted, because I don’t believe Iran will opt for a fake “peace” a second time–will eventually go nuclear.

            1. Glen

              Yes, I too have always worried that Israel would bite off more than it could chew and end up using a nuke.

              And I think it’s getting very close.

              Big, big bummer.

  7. Louis Fyne

    minor point of order: “…A total of 112 US Air Force C7s [sic, presumably a typo for C-17] have now either arrived or are in route to the Middle East with a further…”

    other OSINT accounts are saying those are sorties (flights), not literally 112 planes

    I’m just the messenger

    2. cfraenkel

      Re sorties – yes; after all, what would be the point in keeping the C-17s in theater once it’s cargo was unloaded? They shuttle back and forth any time there is a big airlift. Pre Gulf War, these guys were flying non-stop for more than a month.

      1. LawnDart

        We flew from rnd of July 1990 well into February– crew-rest, maintence, rules on load-limits and others all went out the window. If C17s are involved then other air-mobility assets will be as well. Our main circuit at the time was from North America, Europe, Middle East and back, with occasional interesting deviations from this (I found myself stranded for a week while medically grounded on a very tiny island (not DG) in the South Pacific at some point).

      2. Polar Socialist

        For reference, (according to The War Zone) it takes 73 C-17 flights to transfer one (1) Patriot battalion. That leaves 39 for the THAAD stuff…

        1. LawnDart

          Add to that once all of the components and personel arrive these aren’t instantly operational. While there are likely prepared positions, infrastructure and some pre-positioned equipment to support these, there will still be some time before the air defense assets are ready to go.

          I’d guess the clock started ticking when the first flights arrived, but I know not how long it would take before these reach combat-rediness… I won’t even try to hazard a guess.

          1. ilsm

            I did some of this in program offices. Years ago I did support plans to deploy and commence operations at forward bases.

            Time to set up and be operating is specified in the design and informs the load planning. For Patriot it would likely specify at the battery.

            I suspect small numbers days, if the deployment assets arrive in operational order.

            For example the radar is vehicle mounted as is the generator.

            Pack and load plans support rapid set up.

            In 1990 I spent a little time at one enroute airlift base. Yes, busy all hours!

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      Now I think that would if anything argue for faster. As of when I last looked, four US medalists had all said in different ways that they felt conflicted about representing the US now and wanted it to live up to Olympic ideals. Trump already made a pissy reaction to the first of that type as reported by The Hill. So he might well want to push Olympics reporting off the front page.

  9. ilsm

    Who is going to replace the Shi’a republic?

    The Baluchs, and MEK are no more than the guerillas who operated around northern Thailand during the Vietnam war who forced US military transports to close their windows…

    Baby Shah gonna bring back Savak!

    The level of US officials’ intel prep on Iran is equal to Vance saying Iran did 9/11!

    That and missile defense seems to be the main asset moved to the region. That said there is not much more “ramp space” in Jordan for USAF short strike aircraft!

    It took six months in 1990 to 1991 building an iron mountain (which US does not have today) to go after freeing Kuwait!

    The emperor and his minions have no clothes.

    Iran should save its missiles and shutter Hormuz until the emperor pleads…..

    1. hemeantwell

      At a recent anti-ICE rally I spoke with Iranians staffing an info desk. When I asked what had happened to the political forces supporting Banisadr before his removal by Khomeini their faces lit up. Pahlavi – faces now indicating disgust — is still around because of money and US institutions behind him. They see his involvement as undermining any chance of the opposition against the mullahs building support in Iran.

      It is sad that after all these years the opposition has not been to organize around an anti-clerical platform. I know that some opponents living in Europe have been assassinated, perhaps that’s been effective. That before his ouster Banisadr went along with Khomeini in attacking the left also likely made cooperation during exile difficult.

  10. ISL

    Assuming the B2s actually dropped ordinance on the sites in Iran (as opposed to firing standoff missiles and lying), then Iran and Russia learned a lot about B2 radar signatures, etc., that would aid targetting in the upcoming battles.
    -Per Scott Ritter and Nima. this morning.

    1. ilsm

      I watched the National Anthem at yesterday’s Slumber Bowl.

      There were no B-2 in the fly over. They showed B-1 in the mixed fly over, followed by a single B-1.

      B-2 are likely red lined from flying so much in June!

      Getting 14 of the 20 B-2’s in mission capable state in one day is a huge article of faith!

      Note B-1 like B-2, B-52 can shoot standoff missiles like a USN destroyer.

      1. JonnyJames

        I have not watched TV for years but military planes and bomber fly-overs at a sporting event? The super bowl sounds like it has turned into a politicized spectacle, with jingoism, militarism, glorifying war, imperialism etc. Years ago, during the USSR days, I don’t recall such military displays and glorification of authoritarianism and war. This is a bit ironic, and perhaps another indication of a declining power in collective denial. They might as well play the “Bomb Bomb Iran” tune that John McCain was so fond of.

        1. Yalt

          The Super Bowl has always had a flyover, but it’s now completely normalized at all major outdoor sporting events: every professional and major college football game, every stock car race, the last day of the US Open tennis tournament, you name it. I’m not quite sure when things changed–Iraq war maybe, or 9/11?–but at this point there’s not even awareness that it was ever otherwise, or isn’t this way everywhere.

          1. motorslug

            I’m thinking Iraq 1 under daddy Bush. Before then, the only mark in the V column was Grenada which was a couple thousand goats and medical students.
            Coincidentally, that was around the same time the halftime show switched from marching bands and simplicity to superstar lameness with multi-million dollar expenses.

          2. Chris N

            More flyovers during sports events are part of the hyper-optimization plans that senior PR and training officers put together thinking they’re clever for ‘synergizing’ and ‘doing-more-with-less.’

            All pilots need to perform a certain number of flight hours periodically in training exercises to maintain their rating and skills for the aircraft they fly. The flight hour cost for military aircraft is easily $30k+ per hour, with many larger and more modern aircraft costing $60k+ per hour.

            Rather than conduct training exercises on a schedule with flight paths or objectives that would align with mission preparedness, the schedules are re-aligned to have part of the training exercise include flyovers either during the beginning or end of the exercise. Pilots and trainers get their flight hours, Public relations get their advertising goodwill at stadium games, and sports fans get extra entertainment. Win-Win-Win from everyone’s perspectives.

            However, claiming formation flyovers keeps pilots sharp is like saying that putting more drivers’ ed miles driving a car on an empty highway or parking lot makes a driver better. At some point there’s diminishing returns. Also claiming there’s a cost savings by training and performing PR work at the same time serves as a convenient distraction to people who might question why flight hour costs have ballooned with newer aircraft.

            1. LawnDart

              I transfered from FREDs at Travis to 130s at OHare after Gulf War 1. During annual qualifications one requirement for our pilots was to fly with a load of XX number of pounds, and we had slabs of concrete set aside on pallets for this purpose; however, nobody ever said the load HAD to be concrete.

              Quietly– very quietly– nuns in the Dominican Republic would regularily receive gently-used medical equipment from Chicago-area Catholic hospitals after our pilots met their qualification requirements. From what I understood, this was kind of a gray-area… I”ve delivered enough death and destruction elsewhere, so hopefully those qualification missions will at least take a little of the sting out of the fires of hell that await me.

          3. FlyoverBoy

            It’s been a well publicized fact for several years that all those pre-sports-event “To Honor America…” jingoism orgies are US Government-bought and taxpayer-funded.

  12. Tom Stone

    Imaginary conversation between Trump and Pistol Pete Hegseth “Pete, how sure are you of the information ?, I really need a win right now to distract people from all the fake news coming out about Epstein “.
    “Mr President, the Intel is rock solid, we know EVERYTHING that’s happening in Iran ! “Suzanne researched it”.
    As far as the assaults on NC and other sites palantir Et Al know that the window to lock things down is narrowing.
    Trump can probably do it, however he is fading rapidly and Vance couldn’t lead a Marine to a Brothel.

    1. tegnost

      palantir Et Al know that the window to lock things down is narrowing.

      Agreed, shades of desperation. They do have a pretty good lock on 2 billion or so people, but the other 6 billion are giving them the side eye. Too bad for those of us in the 2 billion though.

  14. Afro

    When I studied world war 2, I came to the conclusion that part of the German failure against the USSR was their racism, they simply underestimated the Slavs, and to a large extent they thought they were fighting dumb savages. This led to issues, for example, when German soldiers were surprised that Russian tanks could operate in the cold of winter.

    And I think we’re seeing something similar here, that the West under-estimates the Iranians. They’re perceived as backwards. When I have discussed this with normies, they simply do not accept, for example, that Western missile defense systems had a low interception rate against Iranian missiles in the 12-day war.

    1. Mikel

      And also there were the drugs. People have made quips around here about the current establishment’s dabbling in substances.

      However, Iran still has to battle against the lingering effects of Western “soft power”.

    2. Louis Fyne

      all stems from “The West'”‘s framing of Persia starting with Herodotus and his pro-Greece biases.

      in many ways, Cyrus I’s Persia was superior to its Hellenic contemporaries….then came the Persia-Greek wars

      1. lyman alpha blob

        Persians were superior in many ways. The Greeks didn’t destroy the Persian Empire – they managed to stop squabbling among themselves long enough drive the Persian forces out of Greece a couple times. After that the Persians decided it really wasn’t worth it to send massive armies abroad looking for monsters to destroy, at least not that far. But the short-form version of the story makes it seem like the plucky Greeks took down an empire. Athens only really became any kind of power after it helped drive out the Persians – prior to that it was largely a backwater.

        Then they got back to squabbling, eventually giving Alexander his opportunity. He took over most of Greece before defeating the Persians over a century and a half after Marathon, but he didn’t personally last very long after searching out his own monsters to destroy. Even his contemporaries didn’t know his exact cause of death, but hubris definitely had a lot to do with it.

      2. vao

        Herodotus actually gave quite a positive description of Persia: well-governed, large, beautiful cities, huge libraries, wise men, noble rulers. He recommended that if given the chance, anybody should absolutely visit it — and Egypt too, which he admired.

        I could be wrong, but it seems to me that the utterly negative view of Persia (decadent, backward, etc) came between the establishment of Alexander’s empire and the beginning of Rome’s expansion in Asia.

    3. Lefty Godot

      I suspect that besides the racism there is the Empire’s technophilia. I would bet they think they have a new “silver bullet” that will lay the unsuspecting Iranians low, a new version of the pager attack, or Trump’s “discombobulator”, or another gosh-wow secret weapon of some sort. The PTB have extreme faith in tech winning out over all obstacles. For Iran’s sake, I hope they have very hardened electronics with redundant power and multiple communication pipes, and that leadership is dispersed in such a way that they can’t all be knocked out by the first blow, because the first blow will probably be the Empire’s best shot. If Iran can retaliate and keep it going for a few weeks, the attackers may be in real trouble. Like if the last 12 day war had gone to 22 days, that might have been enough to result in a decisive victory for Iran.

  15. JonnyJames

    Excellent piece, this should be cross posted far and wide.

    Regarding the crash of the Rial currency: I notice that it has not recovered. I recall Alastair Crooke suggesting that China could intervene to help the Rial. That does not appear to be happening. At this stage, how important is the Rial exchange and dollar shortage?

  16. erstwhile

    A very serious, scary, and compelling post. I’m not at all convinced that trump is human, but maybe, say, a piece of undigested potato, capable of filling my life, and others, with nightmare after nightmare. If there would ever be an opportune time for a military coup, I would say now is that time. When the genocider netanyahu meets with the genocider trump in a few days, in washington, and when the military is hulking in west Asia, and poised to deliver death again, this time to the peoples of Iran, the iron will be hot enough to strike. We know that the military must not follow an illegal order, and a war on Iran, not declared by congress, would be an illegal order. Any chance of this happening? Just asking for someone not named in the epstein files.

    1. hemeantwell

      Dunno about a coup. However, if the war, as predicted, drags on, and we begin to see serious economic effects along with significant US casualties, it’s possible that Trump’s state of mind will erode to the point he’ll be placed under “behavioral management.”

  17. Polar Socialist

    Regarding retraining schedule from S-300 to S-400, it took less than 10 months for the Indian air-defense troops. As I’ve said before, S-400 is an improved version of the S-300PMU2 which Iran uses.

    Most of the vehicles are the same, most of the comm equipment is the same, most of the missiles are the same. S-400 has an improved radar and can (thus) use longer range missiles. It’s also much better at automatic operation: the crew can let the fire-control computer select targets and fire the missiles, or delegate those decision to a higher echelon if need be.

    1. hemeantwell

      fwiw, searching yields this, and it’s similar to what I’ve seen elsewhere. If Russia provides crews, they are good to go now:

      An S-400 missile battery is designed for rapid deployment, typically setting up and becoming operational in 5 to 10 minutes, thanks to its self-propelled, wheeled components, allowing for quick relocation (a “shoot and scoot” capability). From a standby state, it can be fully operational in as little as 35 seconds.
      Key Factors for Setup Speed
      Mobility: Components are mounted on heavy-duty trucks, enabling fast movement.
      Self-Propelled Design: Reduces reliance on external lifting equipment for immediate readiness.
      Optional Masts: Using the 40V6 series masts for improved low-altitude radar coverage adds significant time (45-90 minutes) and is often skipped for frontline, mobile deployments.

  18. Es s Ce Tera

    To those saying the US/Israel hasn’t learned from the failure of the 12 day war, I would suggest they’ll try to do something differently this time. But it rather looks like what’s different this time is simply more, but of the same.

    1. vao

      Since the 12-days war did not produce the expected results, and Iran did strike back with painful consequences for Israel (and whose extent has slowly become clear only recently), Israel and the USA will indeed “do something differently this time”.

      I bet on them doing what they did every time they met a military that can punch them back forcefully — whether in Korea, Vietnam, Serbia, Lebanon, or Yemen: focus on destroying civilian infrastructure and killing civilians, and not bother any longer with the nuclear sites and military targets.

      Let us hope Trump and Netanyahu get cold feet.

  19. John k

    Thanks for this post, and sorry to hear you’re under attack.
    I wonder if they might start soon because of China/russia help. Also if Russia providing s-400 operatives, payback for us activities in Ukraine.
    Friday 13th? Unlucky for who? ‘If you attack a great empire will be defeated…’
    Anger urges immediate reaction, not patience. Trump said what we want or else, Witkoff and co anger will likely fuel his. And he’s under a lot of pressure, could blow.

  20. alrhundi

    Keep in mind Ramadan starts February 17. I imagine this could be a critical day to consider for action.

  21. Who Cares

    Weren’t China, Iran and Russia going to hold a combined exercise in the second half of February?
    If so any attack will need to be this week if the US thinks they can deliver an overwhelming knockout punch.
    Or they need to wait until it is over and both the Chinese and Russian navy have left

  22. EY Oakland

    The worry is what action Isr/we have already planned. Information about Iran’s defenses and strike capability have long been discussed. I’d like to know that there is nothing like an EMP weapon earmarked for immediate use upon any US strike, which weapon would or might cripple Iran immediately.

    1. Lefty Godot

      That’s definitely the type of thing I would be worried about if I was Iran. Hopefully their underground missile bases are well shielded against an attack like that. The other worry is Israel using one of its nukes. It seems like a red line too far, but they have shown that world opinion matters nothing to them, and their stooges in the NYTimes and WaPo probably already have their lead stories written up justifying something like this, sitting in a folder ready to be printed as needed. In fact, they may have the boilerplate story all written except for a blank in which to insert the name of whatever atrocity the Empire perpetrates.

  23. MatF

    Thanks for the timely update on the situation. I am not far from a US airbase in Europe, it sometimes gets loud at night, if there’s something afoot in either Ukraine or the Middle East…

    Maybe Bibi is in New York because it’s the safest place for himself to press the red button and see what the initial reaction is.

    Talking about red buttons, something I was wondering about is that virtually no one discusses or tries to assess the probability of a nuclear first strike by Israel on Tehran to decapitate the capital, entire leadership and political infrastructure. It is discussed when assessing Russian escalation and deterrence capabilities. And Russia is in a much more comfortable situation on the conventional side than Israel is. Why this reluctance to analyse this? We all know they have it….Is it so far fetched to believe the risk is non-0 for a country that is leading a multifront war, has depleted its population, economic base, army, and gone utterly rogue to the point of being prosecuted for war crimes and genocide? Their back is to the wall and they clearly have gone off the rails, wouldn’t this take out a major opponent’s entire leadership and reestablish a strong deterrence in the entire region? They already are a Pariah amongst most nations, so there’s not much of a reputation to lose. And tightening the remaining Spartans loyally around Bibi, outcasts among the world….if that is not the wet dream religious apocalyptic fanatics are all about, I don’t know what is….

    1. Pokey

      Netanyahu is desperate, but I would like to believe that the population of Israel is not as much.

      It does not appear that there is an outcry for the depopulation of Jews.

      We can hope that Israelis and Palestinians could thrive in peace, but that would mean that Netanyahu goes to jail.

  24. abierno

    Have not seen allusions to Iran’s purchase of Chinese J .)10C jets (vigorous dragon) which occurred almost immediately after the 12 day war. They are considered a strong counter to the F 35, particularly as regards advanced radar and missiles.
    For the more reflective, the concern is the concept of superfire (when one or more distant fires converge). “With several incandescent ,,, wars converging in Eurasia” (Jalife-Rahme; voltairenet. org) such action has moved from the level of possibility to probability. Tragically, for USIS, it is not seasoned military managing the levers of decision making.

    1. hk

      Unless they came with Chinese pilots and ground crews, plus supporting infrastructure for the bases, they probably won’t be much use, though…

  25. Raymond Carter

    The US negotiation strategy consists of anchoring absurdly high, and then eventually reneging on its side of the unfair bargain anyway.

    Bravo to Iran in Oman for calling the US bluff.

    They have directly experienced that no concession will ever stop US/ISR aggression. And they have directly experienced that no promise made by the US is ever honored.

    I have been gobsmacked at how many nations have instead conceded to the US’s absurdly high anchoring in so-called trade talks post Trump’s tariff idiocy.

    I was also gobsmacked during the 12 day war that Iran was stupid enough to go easy militarily and then in the end bail out the US and Israel with a ceasfire in return for promises they should have known would never be honored. That was a head slapper.

    But it seems that at least the Iranians can learn from experience and change their strategy in significant ways.

    In the coming war, probably both sides have unexpected tricks up their sleeves.

    But most of all Iran will fight far more ferociously than last time. It will be interesting to see what that looks like.

  26. Yaiyen

    I think the reason Israel is this confidence is because they have people in iran who is ready to work with USA when they attack. If you listen closely Iran will not even close the straight hormuz in a war. For them to win they would have to destroy all oil infrastructure in middle east and close straight hormuz totally. With USA bluff don’t work

  27. ocypode

    Thank you for this very timely piece. And happy to see Justin Podur mentioned, he did excellent work in covering the Gaza genocide and is a beacon of sanity in these times. As for the war, I’ve been mistakenly thinking and saying that war was imminent for a month at least, being remarkably mistaken to the timing of the attacks; but at this point it seems like they will materialize in a very short amount of time, and thus we’re about to enter what people have been facetiously calling the “fun zone”. Will we see a carrier sink below the waves? Will cities become unlivable in Occupied Palestine? Guess we’ll have to see. But the crucial point is that I don’t see Iran leaving Hormuz open, which is going to cause some major pain around the world. At least the oil barons in the US will be happy to know that oil prices will allow for profitable investment in fracking, whatever the ecological consequences.

  28. farmboy

    I’m waitng for the VIX to spike above 24 for any indication an attack is imminent. Like last April when it went over 40. Someone somewhere will put on trades.

  29. HH

    The frequency of Netanyahu’s visits is a sign that all is not well with the planning for this attack. Moreover, Trump’s record of miscalculation in his business failures and his susceptibility to sycophants suggest a big blunder coming. Perhaps the Trump administration will be a self-limiting problem, with certain defeat in the midterms and congressional hearings that disclose endless scandals. It all has a Nixon departure feeling. We can but hope.

  30. Iang

    (1) there’s a problem with this sort of analysis – we don’t know what the mission is. Military works to missions. Attack is not a mission – it needs a specific purposeful verb like kill, defend, dominate, eject, … So as we analyse the discussion around the current negotiations and verbal battles, we actually cannot predict if it can work, before the fact, nor can we state that victory was gained, after the fact, bc we don’t know what the “it” is.

    (2) in any plan of any significance there is always a deception plan. This is why politicians routinely lie before the battle starts. When I see things like Iran claiming it will destroy American bases and launch massive cyber attacks, I assume that means they won’t do that. If America then put all its air defence over the bases, well and good, Iran got one over America bc the real attack should be elsewhere.

    (None of this is necessarily law. Sometimes the real plan is broadcast… and often enough the political side doesn’t give a real mission to the military, just chooses the most juicy from a smorgasbord of attack plans. Eg Iraq 2 had no solid mission, whereas Iraq 1 had a proper mission.)

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      I hate to seem testy but that is false. We have debunked that idea repeatedly, as have many ex-US officers like Douglas Macgregor and Daniel Davis, who often discuss the problem of the US regularly if not routinely engaging in combat operations with no clear objectives, which = no clear mission. Macgregor was an advisor to the Pentagon as recently as 2020. Both Macgregor and Davis have contacts in active service.

      This alone should disabuse you of your romantic beliefs:

      See specifically at 0:32 where Clark ask a Pentagon official about why the US is going to war with Iraq. The official says “I don’t know” and continues:

      I guess they don’t know what else to do….I guess it’s like don’t know what to do about terrorists but we got a good military and we can take down governments and I guess if the only tool you have is a hammer, every problem has to look like a nail.

  31. hk

    One problem, I think, is that grand strategy is not the realm of the military: “attack” may not be a mission, but it is what passes for “grand strategy” when politicians can’t figure out what to do.

    The thing that baffles me and frightens me is that the political leaders in the “West,” defined broadly, have no idea what they want to do so they just want to race forward hoping that they’ll come across “something”–this includes Trump, Netanyahu, Zelensky, and all the European “leaders.” The attitude of a beggar blowing his last 20 bucks on lottery tickets. Yet, it is also strangely rational: things are already so bad that 20 bucks won’t do any good anyways no matter what. So why not blow it on a billion to one chance that something good “might” happen?

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