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Iran War: US and Iran Continue Escalation With New Exchange of Harsher Strikes; Iran Options Include Closing

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[Today’s Iran war post launched before complete. Because I have to go out, the final version is probably will not appear before 8:30 AM. Please return then or reload this page then]

The Iran conflict, even more so than usual, has become an overly dynamic situation. So while we will recap fresh developments, we will attempt to discern possible trajectories. Needless to say, they are not good for anyone save arms makers and Russian energy companies. We warned from the outset that this conflict would be a test to destruction. The US will not accept Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz even though it lacks the military means to change that, ex nuclear weapons. So Trump, who thinks the solution to any problem is more punishment, is doubling down

In the last 24 hours, Trump delivered on his threat to make even bigger strikes in response to the latest set of exchanges. Iran has retaliated but has not yet acted on its threat to again close the Strait of Hormuz, although traffic has collapsed due to the exchanges this week, so Iran may be holding back on playing that card formally.

As we will discuss soon, in the face of renewed US determination to prove its manhood, it seems likely that Iran will also engage in non-kinetic escalation, such as enriching uranium to 90% and/or enlisting Ansar Allah to attack shipping in the Bad el-Mandab strait. That may not amount to a full closure but will come close enough for the purpose of reducing oil shipments.

Before the latest attacsks, Iran had warned that any new bombing would lead them to close the Strait of Hormuz and suspend negotiations on a settlement. From Press TV in PressTV Iran to close Strait of Hormuz, strike twice as many targets in response to any US attack: Source

Iran has issued a firm warning that it will not back down from its management of the Strait of Hormuz and is prepared to fight to maintain control over the strategic waterway, an informed security source told Press TV on Wednesday.

The source revealed that developments over the past 48 hours have solidified Tehran’s resolve, with a new military and strategic doctrine now in place.

According to the source, Iran’s updated strategy dictates that in the event of any fresh attack on Iranian soil or interests, the Islamic Republic will respond with overwhelming force.

The source elaborated on Iran’s new retaliatory framework, stating that following any strike against Iran, two immediate actions will be taken: first, the Strait of Hormuz will be completely closed to all maritime traffic; and second, Iran will strike enemy targets at a ratio of at least two to one, meaning that for every Iranian target hit, at least two enemy targets will be struck in return.

“The memorandum of understanding signed on this matter clearly states that Iran will reopen the Strait in accordance with its own arrangements. Therefore, Iran will not permit the establishment of any new route outside the framework of its own arrangements,” the source said.

The US went beyond hitting targets on near or in the Strait of Hormuz:

From the body of the tweet:

BREAKING: The latest U.S. strike wave has reportedly expanded beyond Iran’s coastal defenses, with new hits reported in Bushehr, Iranshahr, and Abu Musa Island.

In Bushehr, an IRGC barracks was reportedly hit and is now ablaze. The Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant is nearby, though there is no indication it was targeted.

In Iranshahr, strikes reportedly hit the airport terminal and runway, marking the first inland attacks of the night.

On Abu Musa Island, one of Iran’s three strategic Gulf islands, at least 10 explosions have now been reported.

An overview as of 3:30 AM EDT from Middle East Eye’s live feed:

Tehran targeted several US bases and infrastructure in Bahrain and Kuwait, while Washington said it hit around 90 targets across Iran.

Here are some of the latest developments:

  • At least 14 killed and 78 others were injured in US attacks across 5 Iranian provinces on Wednesday, the Iranian Health Ministry reported.
  • Meanwhile US strikes on Thursday killed a firefighter in Iran’s southeastern city of Iranshahr as well as three others in the western city of Ahvaz.
  • Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf criticised US attacks, asserting that Tehran would retaliate. “America still hasn’t learned that bullying and breaking promises are no longer cost-free,” he said in a post on X. “Let me put it plainly: if you strike, you’ll get hit.”
  • Sirens were activated in Bahrain and Kuwait, as well as elevated security threat alerts sent to mobile phones in Qatar.
  • State media reported that the train line between Tehran and Mashhad has been suspended following US strikes, just hours before the burial of late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in his hometown. His body was expected to be buried late on Thursday in the Shrine of Imam Reza, located in central Mashdad.

Tasnim often does not publish English version of its stories quickly, so this Aljazeera account from its live feed is more current:

Iran claims drone strikes on Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar

Iran’s military says it carried out drone strikes targeting “US bases and strategic centres” in the Gulf about an hour ago.

The strikes targeted a Patriot missile system in Kuwait, an early warning satellite antenna site in Qatar, and fuel tanks belonging to the US military in Bahrain.

The Iranian military said it used “a large number of various types of drones” in the attacks.

It said Iran’s armed forces “will not allow the goals and aspirations of the foolish President of the United States to be realised under any circumstances and will defend the lofty ideals of the Islamic Revolution until final victory”.

This entry in the live feed came at 4:30 AM EDT:

Bahrain sounds nationwide alarm, urges public to seek shelter

Bahrain’s Interior Ministry says warning sirens have been activated across the Gulf country and told people to remain calm and proceed to the nearest safe location.

The warning comes after a series of attacks by Iran following dozens of US strikes on that country.

The IRCG statement about its retaliation on Tasnim made it seem comparatively measured. Again, it seems possible that Iran is weighing lateral, non-kinetic measures as more productive right now. That may take some internal evaluation before going ahead. I have said the Iranians seem to be a big Japanese in their decision-making processes, which can lead to odd-seeming delay. From Key US Infrastructure in Kuwait, Bahrain Hit in IRGC Retaliatory Strikes:

The IRGC said in a statement that following the breach of promise and its latest aggression against Iran, four American bases in Kuwait and Bahrain were hit in the first phase of its response.

The statement said that the child-killing US, by violating all its commitments, once again launched aggression against several parts of the southern coastal provinces of Iran earlier…

“In the first phase of the punitive response against (the US), the IRGC’s naval and aerospace forces, through joint missile and drone operations, destroyed the infrastructure and important facilities of the two colonial bases of the American occupiers in Arifjan and Ali al-Salem in Kuwait and in Juffair and Sheikh Isa in Bahrain, one hour after the enemy’s attacks on various parts of (Iran).”

The IRGC warned the US army that if the aggression is repeated, Iran’s crushing responses will be expanded to other American bases in the region.

The IRGC, meanwhile, described the most recent aggression as a “hasty” reaction by the American aggressors to ongoing massive popular turnout in neighboring Iraq during funeral processions held for martyred Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei…

The statement came after American aircraft carried out a wide range of strikes against several southern Iranian areas, targeting civilian infrastructure and claiming the life of one victim, besides attacking a bridge in the northern province of Golestan.

The US seems unable to comprehend that it lacks the means to break Iran control of the Strait of Hormuz before Iran breaks the global economy and the US with it. It still acts as if it has viable military options when it is running out of weapons and would require years to build and train the monster army it would need to invade and subdue Iran. And that is putting aside the heroic assumption that the US is able to utterly transform its arms industry to make cheap and effective weapons on a mass production basis and work out when and how to deploy high tech fussy kit.

Yet experts are saying that the strikes so far have the signature of being in preparation for a ground operation, which based on current deployable forces, would produce a Bay of Pigs-level fiasco.

As Professor Robert Pape pointed out in his latest Substack entry (emphasis his):

The biggest mistake is to view this week’s events as the collapse of a ceasefire.

The ceasefire was never the real issue.

The real issue has always been the balance of power that emerged after the first phase of the war.

Iran survived. It retained the ability to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The United States destroyed important military assets but did not eliminate Iran’s capacity to impose costs. Israel remains dissatisfied because the Iranian regime survived and Tehran still possesses a pathway back toward a nuclear weapons capability.

In other words, none of the three principal actors achieved the political outcome they originally sought.

That is why all three continue using force….

But one important feature of the strategic landscape has changed.

By declaring the memorandum “dead” and publicly abandoning negotiations, President Trump has tied his own political credibility more directly to the military outcome of the conflict. If the war drags on while oil markets remain under pressure and global energy prices continue rising, the political costs at home will increase rather than diminish.

That creates a powerful incentive for Trump to seek a visible military success.

The most obvious candidates are Iran’s strategic positions around the Strait of Hormuz—including Qeshm Island and the Kharg Island oil export complex—not because capturing them would end the war, but because they would provide a concrete demonstration that the United States had regained the strategic initiative….

Escalation is no longer being driven solely by Iranian incentives. Washington now has growing political incentives of its own to change the military balance rather than simply manage it.

Once both sides conclude that the existing balance of power is politically unacceptable, the pressure for larger military operations grows rapidly—even when neither side possesses a clear path to decisive victory.

That is how escalation traps become wars that neither side originally intended to fight.

Brandon Weichert makes many similar points in a must-listen new talk with Mario Nawfal:1

Key points from a lightly-edited machine transcript:

Weichert: And the Iranians are trying to throw their weight around. And this is how they’re going to do it. They’re not going to drop this. There’s never going to be consensus between Washington and Tehran….This is not going to end with a peace deal. This is not going to end with any deal….

The red line is Strait of Hormuz control. The Iranians will never let that go as long as that regime is in power. And the Americans can never cede that to them. And that means it’s war.

The war is back on the menu is what that means. And if you look at the targets they hit again, you listed them at the beginning. If you look at the targets they hit, this looks a hell of a lot like they are prepping the battle space for a potential invasion of one of those outlying islands….

What I’m saying is if you look at what they’re hitting these they’re they need to punch a pathway for a potential amphibious landing. This is what you would be hitting. They need to punch a hole there because the Iranians are not going to to drop this and you can degrade all you want. But I see no evidence that we have the ability to destroy the actual capability militarily of the Iranians to exert some form of pressure over the Strait of Hormuz. Which is why I still think landing troops, as insane as it is, and it will not end well for the United States, I still think the president has him this locked in. That’s what he wants to do. Whether he does it now or he does it after the midterms, probably after the midterms because it’s too hot right now.

It is instructive as well as disconcerting to see how Nawfal is unable to comprehend that Iran is not going to give the state of its economy top priority, that enough Iranian citizens see spiritual obligations and national survival as paramount, allowing them to endure far more than soft, materialistic Americans ever could.

Confirming that stance, from chief Iranian negotiator MB Ghalibaf on Twitter:

Translated from Persian

America still hasn’t learned that bullying and breaking promises are no longer cost-free. Let me put it plainly: if you strike, you’ll get hit.

Don’t flail around pointlessly, or you’ll sink even deeper: the Strait of Hormuz will only open with “Iranian arrangements,” not American threats.

And:

A Twitter report on nefarious US-Israel plots:

The idea of upping enrichment levels as a retaliatory move had occurred to me sooner but I failed to throw down a marker:

Larry Johnson’s latest post provides new Iranian statements on kinetic and non-kinetic measures:

However, the Trump attack prompted an ominous warning from the spokesman for Iranian Parliament’s National Security Committee, who stated that a renewed US attack will be answered with a change in nuclear doctrine. He also said:

➡ In any future confrontation, the enemy will face a comprehensive, all-out surprise offensive from the Islamic Republic of Iran.

➡ We have many options available that were not even used during the 40-day war.

➡ Options such as withdrawal from the NPT, changing nuclear doctrine, and closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait alongside the Strait of Hormuz are on the table for review.

➡ A bill for NPT withdrawal is also ready for review in parliament — and if Iran faces an existential threat, a change in nuclear doctrine could also be put on the agenda

For a quick look at how the latest kinetic exchanges are being packaged and sold to investors, we’ll turn to the relevant section from the Bloomberg landing page:

From their overview story, US Military Launches Strikes on Iran for Second Straight Day:

  • The US military struck Iran for the second straight day to further degrade Tehran’s ability to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • US Central Command said about 90 targets were hit, including air defense systems and missile storage sites, and that US forces remain vigilant and prepared to execute operations.
  • Iran’s parliamentary speaker warned that if the US strikes, it will be struck back, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had struck US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.

    • The US military struck Iran for the second straight day, an escalation of violence that threatens efforts to reach a permanent peace deal.

    The hopium, it burns.

    And from Hormuz Ship Traffic Grinds to a Near Halt After US, Iran Strikes:

    Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz came to a near standstill on Thursday, after the US struck Iran for a second straight day as a fragile truce between the two sides looked increasingly shaky.

    Observable movements in the world’s most vital energy conduit largely occurred along an Iran-approved route nearer to the waterway’s north, while the US-supported Omani corridor was quiet, ship-tracking data show.

    Among larger vessels, only a US-sanctioned supertanker heading out of the Persian Gulf was seen in the strait, alongside an Iranian-flagged container ship. It’s possible that some vessels may be crossing with their transponders turned off, however.

    And:

    The chart detail:

    Keep in mind that even with the former sorta-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the Saudis are having trouble getting ships to come in and load oil. That means normalization, even assuming a miraculous change in temperature between Iran and the US, is even more remote than even sober analysts thought. From Bloomberg in Saudi Efforts to Revive Gulf Oil Loadings Run Into Buyer Caution:

  • Saudi Arabia’s attempts to revive oil flows from its reopened Ras Tanura terminal are running into caution from customers due to renewed threats to shipping.
  • Buyers are reluctant to load at Ras Tanura because of attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and concerns over safety and high freight costs.
  • Aramco has asked customers to submit requests for loadings from Ras Tanura, but some buyers have said they are not ready to load there, citing concerns over the situation in the region….

    • Ras Tanura, which handled about 90% of Saudi crude exports before the Iran war, restarted recently after a months-long closure, and this week Saudi Aramco was asking customers to submit requests for loadings from the port, according to the people.

    But buyers who had already been wary of sending in ships into the Persian Gulf to lift cargoes have become even more concerned after vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information is private….

    It’s not just the risk to safety that’s giving buyers pause. The limited availability of tankers to load in the Persian Gulf and the high cost of freight are also a problem, the people said.

    Despite buyers’ concerns, Saudi Arabia has had some success in reviving oil exports since the US-Iran peace deal using its tankers. At the end of June, the kingdom’s crude oil shipments had surged to around 90% of prewar levels through a combination of shipments from Yanbu and its Persian Gulf facilities, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Exports were about 6.3 million barrels a day in the six days through July 1.

    For August loading, Aramco is offering cargoes to buyers in Asia at a discount to the regional benchmark for the first time since 2020.

    A sanity check in an article yesterday from Lloyd’s List, before Iran warned of a new closure, in US threats of fresh strikes and Iran blockade prompt another shipping pause in Hormuz:

  • Hormuz transits stall as US-Iran ceasefire collapses, prompting owners and charterers to pause MEG voyages amid renewed military escalation
  • Multiple tankers and LNG carriers turned back from the strait after vessel attacks and threats against ships using the US-backed southern corridor
  • Industry warns recent VLCC departures marked the clearance of trapped pre-war cargoes, not a return to normality, with future exports now dependent on risk appetite
  • .

    • And from a wag:

    Admittedly, the chart uses the highest level of operating minimum I have heard cited, but recall that Robert Pape a bit over a month ago closely quizzed some oil experts tout ensemble and they came up with an estimate of 270 to 300 million barrels.
    _____

    1 Weichert has a sour note in depicting Queshm Island, as far too many do, as essential to Iran oil exports. Iran has at least four other alternatives. Queshm is the biggest and most efficient facility, but even losing it entirely would not render Iran unable to export oil. The Iranians have spent too many decades contemplating the possibility of a full bore war with the US, including an invasion, to allow for a single point of failure for critical operations.

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