Climate pushing lemmings to cliff BBC Paddy Power offers odds of 4-1 that God exists Telegraph The Treatment of Bush Has Been a Disgrace: What must our enemies be thinking? Jeffrey Scott Shapiro, Wall Street Journal. This is the biggest piece of crap I have seen in a very very long time. This is a […]
Read more...Brad Setser and Nouriel Roubini have collaborated in research and publishing on currencies but since are working independently. Roubini issues a grim outlook for China (“Roubini Foresees Chinese Hard Landing“). A cornerstone of Roubini’s analysis was that China was export-dependent and exports are falling fast: Note that China is an economy is structurally dependent on […]
Read more...It looks like the perenially optimistic analyst community is finally getting the message that the recession will be nasty. From Bloomberg: Analysts are slicing profit forecasts for U.S. companies in the fourth quarter and 2009 as third- period results miss projections at the highest rate in almost 11 years. “Estimates have been coming down with […]
Read more...One thing I never understood was the assumption among some marketing mavens I know, that certain types of consumer expenditures were simply never going to be cut. Confidence was particularly high regarding how women spent money. “Oh, lipstick always does well in recessions, it’s a cheap pick-me-up.” “Women don’t cut back on hair color” (meaning […]
Read more...The New York Times, writing from the industry town, in “Wall Street’s Pay Is Expected to Plummet,” tries to make the case that the calls for scalps deeper pay cuts are overdone: The first clues are emerging that Wall Street pay will plummet this year — but perhaps not enough to satisfy the financial industry’s […]
Read more...Sorry to be brief today, but these excepts from our local Dr. Doom stand on their own (although I know some will take issue with the proportion of the economy he deems to be export dependent): Let us consider now in detail the evidence that China may be on its way to a hard landing… […]
Read more...Although Asian markets opened up nicely on the Obama victory, Europe is focusing on credit market woes, and US futures are down at this hour. From Bloomberg: Credit markets are still creaking even after the biggest decline on record in the rate banks say they charge each other to borrow dollars. The London interbank offered […]
Read more...Golf secret not all in the wrists BBC Rainforest Fungus Naturally Synthesizes Diesel Wired How will the economic crisis affect wine? Wine Economics Obama’s brilliant campaign Jurek Martin, Financial Times. IMHO, this issue has not gotten the notice it warrants. Financial Engineering, Wall Street’s Extreme Sport New York Times. It is surprising how much this […]
Read more...Even though the (supposed) supervising grownups in the credit default swaps market keep making reassuring noises about the credit default swaps market, I am not entirely convinced, mainly because the picture is still somewhat murky. Witness the Bloomberg story today, which tells us that the CDS market is smaller than we thought, roughly $34 trillion […]
Read more...Edmund Phelps, a Nobel Prize winner, casts doubts on Keynesian remedies because Keynes himself came to question them. This Financial Times piece provides no answers but raises some interesting questions. But sadly, there may be no answer for the first question he asks: What theory can we use to get us out of the impending […]
Read more...For those living abroad, Small Business Administration sponsors a variety of loan programs that are administered through banks. Despite the name, SBA loans are typically used by the larger end of small businesses, one that might be on the cusp of getting a conventional bank loan or might qualify but find the pricing unattractive. The […]
Read more...One borough’s loss in another’s gain. Despite the general deterioration in the New York City economy thanks to plunging financial services employment, the downtown Brooklyn real estate market is reportedly getting tighter as cost-conscious companies go shopping for cheaper digs. From the New York Times: Among office tenants, bargain hunting is back in style. After […]
Read more...I am now very upset with Blogger, this was set to run at 6:00 AM! Saving Wild Salmon, in Hopes of Saving the Orca New York Times. Trivia: I was told in Alaska that there are two types of orcas: resident (which stay in the same general area) and transient (which don’t). Only transient orcas […]
Read more...When it rains, it pours. Amazingly, the list of possible casualties from positions on forward freight agreements includes not only ship owners, traders, and charterers, but also hedge funds. From the Financial Times: Fears are growing in the shipping industry over the potentially big losses that could emerge this week on derivatives triggered by the […]
Read more...Early 2007 was a frenzied period for commercial real estate (the February sale of Equity Office Properties Trust by Sam Zell to Blackstone was the market peak), but the 2008 drop, even by the standards of the sometimes-volatile New York City real estate market, is still dramatic. And of course, the credit crunch is immediate […]
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