Yearly Archives: 2011

Did Standard and Poor’s Break SEC Regulations in Disclosing Its Downgrade to Select Parties?

The Administration and its allies have gone after Standard and Poor’s for its downgrade of the US bond rating to AA+. They have attacked S&P’s general competence, its failure to reexamine its decision in the light of a $2 trillion math error (a Wall Street Journal story does not reflect well on S&P’s haste) and the subjective and political basis for its judgment. Even if these attacks have merit, however, they come off as being less than convincing by virtue of sounding like sour grapes.

There is a much more straightforward basis for questioning S&P’s conduct, and it has nothing to do with how S&P arrived at its rating.

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Asia Getting Hammered, Discouraging Report on ECB Commitment (Updated: Europe Opens Up, US Futures Rise; Second Update: Rally Fizzles)

Wellie, nothing like a lack of leadership to turn an ugly market day into an utter rout. But in another sense, the fake leadership in lieu of real leadership (as in taking a tough stand now and again and bringing the public around) is what set up conditions for a spectacular market unwind in the first place.

It’s one thing to do the equivalent of put the financial system on life support to deal with a crisis, quite another to leave the patient on life support and pretend you’ve returned to status quo ante.

The downdraft continues.

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Why Are the Big Banks Getting Off Scot-Free?

We are one of several guest bloggers at Salon while Glenn Greenwald is on vacation and we have a post up that discusses why big banks are getting away with murder, um, probable fraud. It begins:

For most citizens, one of the mysteries of life after the crisis is why such a massive act of looting has gone unpunished. We’ve had hearings, investigations, and numerous journalistic and academic post mortems. We’ve also had promises to put people in jail by prosecutors like Iowa’s attorney general Tom Miller walked back virtually as soon as they were made.

Yet there is undeniable evidence of institutionalized fraud

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Obama Owns This Crisis

Obama created an unnecessary financial crisis. Not that we would have escaped eventually having one, but he played like a fool into the Republican desire to use the debt ceiling to push for budget cuts, and he tried outsmarting them to get his long standing desire of entitlements cuts through. Having the S&P downgrade hit when the Eurozone crisis was in an acute phase was like rolling a car full of explosives into a burning house. “Obama victory” may come to be the modern version of “Pyrrhic victory”.

And the man touted as a silver tongued orator can’t even talk up the markets. He actually managed to talk them down. Big time.

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More Bank of America Deathwatch: AIG to Seek $10+ Billion for Dud Mortgages

Wow, this couldn’t be happening to a nicer bank (well take that back, JPM and Goldman are tough competitors).

As you may recall, in the previous quarter, Bank of America announced its $8.5 billion mortgage settlement, which is now looking pretty wobbly, since a variety of unhappy parties, the latest being New York attorney general Eric Schneiderman, have taken aim at it. And Delaware attorney general Beau Biden is reported to be joining the pile on this week. This means either no deal, or a very different deal (almost certainly with bigger numbers attached) after a long slugfest, um, negotiations. The Charlotte bank had said it would increase loss reserves in the second quarter by $20 billion (which included this $8.5 billion) and claimed this would put its mortgage woes behind them. Yours truly was skeptical, and the market reacted badly when it saw the revelation in their 10-Q filing just released, that the bank was going to take more losses on Fannie and Freddie putbacks than previously expected.

The latest revelation, that AIG is expected to file a suit that will seek more than $10 billion in damages against Bank of America on Monday, comes from Louise Story and Gretchen Morgenson of the New York Times:

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Marshall Auerback: A Beer(s) Hall Putsch From the Rentiers?

By Marshall Auerback, a hedge fund manager and portfolio strategist

So the ratings agencies have reared their ugly heads again. David Beers, head of S&P’s government debt rating unit, announced Friday night that S&P has downgraded the U.S. credit rating for the first time, from AAA to AA+. It’s a sham: S&P’s whole analytical framework reflects ignorance about modern money. If the US government, Treasury, and the Federal Reserve, capitulate to this outrageous act of economic extortion, it will effectively be sanctioning a beer hall putsch by the rentier class.

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Only 17% Say Government Has Consent of the Public

One needs to take polls from Rasmussen with a smidge of salt, since Rasmussen is the preferred pollster for the right wing. But the way to goose survey results is to ask questions that are leading, but “leading” can be done in very subtle ways. For instance, saying “What do you think of the job Obama is doing” will elicit lower approval scores than “What do you think of the job Obama is doing as President?” The addition of “as President” enhances his stature and emphasizes the difficulty of the role.

If you read the Rasmussen survey instrument, the money question comes after two questions which imply strong skepticism of government. Nevertheless, Rasmussen has been conducting this sort of poll over time, so changes in sentiment are still germane. Pollster Pat Caddell said via-email “unprecedented…pre-revolutionary.”

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ECB Considers Massive Purchases of Italian and Spanish Bonds (Update: Eurobazooka Armed)

Even thought the US media has been fixated on the downgrade of Treasuries to AA+ by Standard and Poor’s, the real risk to the markets is continuing decay in Eurozone sovereign debt. The BBC’s Robert Peston said today that the failure of the ECB to buy Italian bonds would be a Lehman moment. As our Ed Harrison stresses, while some countries like Greece have a solvency crisis and need to have their obligations restructures (as in written down), the stress on Spanish and Italian bonds looks like a classic liquidity crisis. And the concern has spread to the core, as French sovereign debt (remember, rated AAA) was trading at a 90 basis point premium to German bunds. As Ed noted:

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Matt Stoller: Standard & Poor’s Predatory Policy Agenda

By Matt Stoller, a fellow at the Roosevelt Institute. He is a former financial services staffer to Rep. Alan Grayson.(on Twitter at @matthewstoller)

While it’s useful to think of the ratings agencies as incompetent, or as greedy, it’s important to remember that they have an actual policy agenda. They weren’t just wrong in rating subprime tranches of toxic dreck AAA. They were also pivotal in actively creating the policies that led to the financial crisis.

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