2:00PM Water Cooler 8/21/2024

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Bird Song of the Day

California Thrasher, Mori Pt., San Mateo, California, United States. Short and sweet!

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In Case You Might Miss…

1. Democrat National Convention vignettes .
2. Sabato moves NC to “Toss-Up” from Republican.
3. Boeing 777X and 787debacles.
4. Covid, anosmia, and loss of executive function.

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Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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Democrats en Déshabillé

2024

Less than one hundred days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

There is no good news here for Trump. The deterioration in both Pennsylvania and Georgia is especially marked. Remember, however, that all the fluctuations — in fact, all the leads — are within the margin of error. So the “joy” is based on, well, vibes.

“North Carolina Moves to Toss-up, Setting Up November Battle for Magnificent Seven Swing States” [Larry Sabato]. “Ever since the 2020 presidential election, it seemed clear that so long as the 2024 presidential election was reasonably competitive and reasonably comparable to 2020, the campaign’s focus would be on 7 key swing states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in the Industrial North, Georgia and North Carolina in the southeast, and Arizona and Nevada out west. These were the only 7 states that were each decided by 3 points or less in 2020, and President Biden won 6 of the 7 (all but North Carolina) on the way to the presidency. Former President Trump, meanwhile, won 6 of the 7 (all but Nevada) in winning the presidency in 2016. sAs Democrats meet in Chicago, the 2024 campaign’s overall focus remains trained on these states—so much so that it’s hard to give an immediate edge to either candidate in any of them. That includes the Tar Heel State, the only truly close state that eluded Biden’s grasp in 2020. We are moving it from Leans Republican to Toss-up. This is the first time this cycle that we have moved any electoral votes away from the Republican column into the Toss-up column. With this, the number of electoral votes at least leaning to Trump is now 219, down from 235.” • This opens up more paths to victory for Democrats than I suggested here (based on Sabato’s previous projections).

Biden Defenestration:

“Joe Biden, Trump Casualty” [The American Conservative]. “The Joe Biden who addressed the convention last night was already a ghost, one fated to haunt the White House until January 20. He’s an angry, impotent spirit. Heedless of his naked hypocrisy, he linked Trump to neo-Nazis in one breath and insisted in the next that he had been a president for all Americans, “demonizing no one.” On the contrary, he demonized Republicans relentlessly, not just last night but throughout his administration. “Democracy has prevailed, democracy has delivered, and now democracy must be preserved!” he shouted—after he, the democratically chosen nominee of the Democratic Party’s voters, handed the nomination over to a replacement who had never won so much as a single presidential primary. • Haunt and — presumably — run the executive branch?

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Democrat National Convention Vignettes:

“Joe Biden’s Late Goodbye” [The Atlantic]. “Some things have come later for Biden than he anticipated. Having dreamed of the presidency for decades, he finally achieved it in the twilight of his life. His star turn at this convention came late, too. By the time Biden took the stage, at about 10:30 p.m. Chicago time, it was barely a half hour before midnight in Washington…. Some things have come later for Biden than he anticipated. Having dreamed of the presidency for decades, he finally achieved it in the twilight of his life. His star turn at this convention came late, too. By the time Biden took the stage, at about 10:30 p.m. Chicago time, it was barely a half hour before midnight in Washington.” • I suppose Jackson wanted to come (Sanders, too, for that matter) but the ick factor is strong for me here, due to the exploitation. If the Democrats had managed to nominate Jackson instead of [groan] Mondale and [sigh] Dukakis, this would be a much better timeline. Jackson’s “they work every day” speech (video) puts Michelle’s (below) speech to shame. “They work hard everyday. I know, I live amongst them. They catch the early bus.” Of course, these are precisely the voters the Democrats pivoted away from. Anyhow, here’s the Democrat alibi for why Biden came on so late:

New DNC statement from convention officials explaining why the program ran so late tonight:

"Because of the raucous applause interrupting speaker after speaker, we ultimately skipped elements of our program to ensure we could get to President Biden as quickly as possible so…

— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) August 20, 2024

Raucus applause. Come on. They didn’t want Biden in prime time in case he slipped another cog. This isn’t hard.

“The 7 Best Lines From Michelle Obama’s Barnstorming DNC Speech” [Mehdi Hassan, zeteo]. “But Tuesday night’s primetime address in her home city of Chicago was electrifying and energizing like nothing I’ve seen for decades. The crowd in the United Center went wild, roaring with approval as she arrived onstage to deliver a tour de force of political rhetoric. It wasn’t just me. CNN’s Anderson Cooper called her address “probably the most effective, powerful speech I’ve ever heard.'” • The entire convention reminds me of K-Pop fan service. The speech:

Here’s Michelle Obama’s full remarks tonight. If you weren’t able to listen live, I encourage you to listen when you have the time.

It’s of the best DNC speeches I’ve heard over the course of the last half a century.pic.twitter.com/6xVBagqGiN

— Leah McElrath (@leahmcelrath) August 21, 2024

Better than Jackson’s? For shame. Hasan puts this number on his list:

“[Kamala Harris] understands that most of us will never be afforded the grace of failing forward. We will never benefit from the affirmative action of generational wealth.

Lack of “generational wealth” is not top-of-mind for those who “take the early bus” (it is, however, top of mind in the movement for reparations, to which this is an enormous dog whistle).

Walz:

Tim Walz’s kids doing bunny ears behind him while he’s on national TV at the DNC is the most relatable, Minnesota content. pic.twitter.com/w0VDEehdeM

— Nate Morris 🥥🌴 (@_natemorris) August 20, 2024

Democrat National Convention:

“How Harris wants to handle Gaza at the Democratic convention” [The Hill]. “While Gaza is a big issue outside the United Center, seen through the protests that have launched in Chicago, it’s not the issue Harris wants as the focal point inside the building…. Gaza and Israel is an issue that has divided the Democratic Party, making it something speakers don’t necessarily want to embrace during a convention about unity… Harris is seen as more sympathetic to the Palestinian population, and this already appears to be helping her.” • Vibes. If you throw out the vibes and the multiple liberalgasms, what’s really there? (And if she were all that sympathetic, she could have gotten the platform changed.)

“At Democratic Convention, UAW head threatens strike against Stellantis over delayed plant reopening” [ABC News]. ” A high-profile spat between the United Auto Workers and Stellantis over reopening an Illinois factory complex has made its way into the race for U.S. president and could elicit a strike against the automaker. In a speech at the Democratic National Convention Monday night, union President Shawn Fain accused the company of reneging on promises to restart a now-closed assembly plant in Belvidere, Illinois, just over an hour northwest of Chicago…. After the contracts were approved, Biden visited Belvidere with Fain to celebrate the plant reopening…. Fain, wearing a red T-shirt that said ‘Trump is a scab. Vote Harris,’ told the convention that the union won strong contracts and the plant reopening with the support of Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden.” • Well, he did get a T-shirt….

“The Democrats’ Old Guard Passes The Torch At The DNC” [HuffPo]. “Of the 25 elected officials who were scheduled to speak, 13 were under 50 years old. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, 34, brought the house down and seemingly leveled her career up with her speech. Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, 37, slammed ― literally ― the conservative blueprint called Project 2025 after bringing it out as a large printed book. Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear, 48, and a trio of young women delivered the party’s most important message, promising to protect abortion rights. Other young leaders, including Whitmer, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, were seemingly held in reserve, with the speaking schedule for the next three nights not yet fully revealed. The youth push also helps the party sell the idea of Harris as a fresh start, a way to move past the chaotic politics of eras defined by former President Donald Trump and the coronavirus pandemic.” • As if the coronavirus pandemic didn’t happen mostly under Biden, with results that we know. (Man-oh-man, do I loathe the phrase “young leader.” It’s as if every leader in very field is following… Now what’s the English word I’m looking for…. Principle, that’s it. It also presuppposes an institutional binary between young and old, and implies a sort of nurtuing process where the young are brought along, presumably by mentors. Wrong and unrealistic respectively.)

“Accessibility and Access: Reporters Have Complaints About the DNC” [NOTUS]. “There are only about 15% of the assigned press seats for print news publications this year than there were at the last Democratic National Convention….. Complaints about the media logistics of the Democratic National Convention — who gets what seats, how many, what’s the access like, how long does it take to get in, is there power and Wi-Fi — are not exactly swaying many votes. But as Kamala Harris faces new scrutiny about her reluctance to sit for traditional interviews or answer questions at a press conference, the media access choices organizers made with the DNC are carrying new weight, especially with the journalists on the ground. One of the biggest objections has been about the dedicated seats the DNC provided for print reporters. While there are 12,000 credentialed reporters at this historic convention, hardly any of them have an assigned seat with a power outlet inside the bowl of the United Center, where the speeches are given and the delegates sit during prime-time hours.” • No power outlets? Wowsers. How odd that Kamala wants the adulation, but no coverage, not even from our normally sycophantic press. NOTE “Everyone trapped in buses by the protest movement or trapped in long lines to get through security had proof that things were not going smoothly.” Sounds like a recipe for a superspeading event.

Kamala:

Kamala (D): “Fox’s Karl Rove Warns GOP He’s Never Seen Anything Like Dem Reaction to Kamala Harris: Falling ‘In Love’ And ‘In Line'” [FOX]. “‘Karl, last night you said that Democrats are falling in love and in line. Have you ever seen anything like it?’ she asked. ‘No,’ replied Rove. This is normally what Republicans do is fall in line. But Democrats normally fall in love. And they’re doing both this time around.'” • Hmm. I’m not sure that’s true. Republicans — both voters and Never Trumpers — didn’t “fall in line” in 2016, or we would have gotten “Jeb!”

Kamala (D): “Exclusive: Harris’ election effort raises around $500 million in a month, sources say” [Reuters]. “U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris’ election effort has raised around $500 million since she became the Democratic presidential candidate, sources told Reuters, an unprecedented money haul that reflects donor enthusiasm going into the Nov. 5 election. Four sources familiar with the fundraising effort told Reuters that figure had been banked for Harris in the four weeks since she jumped into the race on July 21.” • Vibes. Four sources, but one hive mind. In any case, after the Democrats — very much including Kamala — universally and vociferously claimed that Biden had no cognitive difficulties (“sharp as a tack”), until Biden slipped a cog on TV in front of millions, I take the strong from position that Democrats are lying until proven otherwise. Given this hermeneutic of suspicion, I’m working on the assumption that they’re lying about the $500 million. Of course, they lie about small things, too–

Kamala (D): “Fact-checking night 2 of the Democratic National Convention” [CNN]. “On the second night of the Democratic National Convention, on Tuesday, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker repeated a claim a Democratic congressman had made the previous night about something former President Donald Trump said about the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. After touting Illinois’ handling of the pandemic, Pritzker then said of Trump: “And Donald? Well, Donald told us to inject bleach.”” • Readers know this is a lie, and that NC has very early, possibly the first, to call it.

Kamala (D): “The message behind Kamala Harris’s power tailoring” [The Telegraph]. “In fact, Harris’s look has remained mostly unchanged since she began her political rise. Her official portraits, captured for the positions she held before her role at the White House – first, as California’s Attorney General (2011-2017) and then representing the ‘Golden State’ in the U.S. Senate (2017- 2021) – portray her wearing nearly identical garb. Namely, mannish suit jackets, blouses and pearls. Her preference for pearls, WWD has noted, began during her time as an economics and political science major at Howard University. She then became a member of Alpha Kappa Alpha, the first Black sorority in the United States and pearls were a traditional signature of the sisterhood…. The relatively petite political force (she’s 5′ 4″) also increases her stature by wearing Manolo Blahnik’s footwear almost religiously. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi also favours the shoe brand. According to the masterly designer’s New York office, Harris favours three variations of Manolo court shoes – the BB, the Newco and the Tucciosam…. Not just one but two stylists are said to finesse the fine details of the vice president’s wardrobe. While stylists have been integral to crafting the look of White House women such as Michelle Obama and Ivanka Trump, Vice President Harris reportedly works with the profession’s highest rank – namely “power stylists” Karla Welch and Leslie Fremar. Both are renowned for styling Hollywood celebrities for red-carpet events like the Oscars.” • Not one but two stylists….

Trump:

Trump (R): “Manhattan DA signals openness to delaying Trump criminal sentencing” [The Hill]. “The Manhattan district attorney’s office said it would not oppose delaying former President Trump’s sentencing in his hush money criminal case slated for Sept. 18, suggesting prosecutors would instead defer to the judge. Trump has demanded a delay in sentencing until after the November presidential election. Among other arguments, he asserts that he will immediately appeal if the judge doesn’t wipe the guilty verdict following the Supreme Court’s presidential immunity decision. A ruling is expected by Sept. 16, two days prior to Trump’s sentencing.”

Trump (R): “Former President Trump On The Assassination Attempt, Israel, The Border And ‘Comrade Kamala'” [Hugh Hewitt]. Oppo: “[TRUMP:] And where, you know, one thing I’d like to know, as you know, in my opinion, she’s a Marxist, because if you go back and look at her, what she’s done over the years, she’s a Marxist. Now she’s changed and flip-flopped on just about everything she believe in, in life, but she’s a Marxist. And where is her father? Her father’s a Marxist professor. I don’t know if you know that or not. [HEWITT:] I do.[TRUMP:] But he seems to have, he’s not around. I’d like to find out where is he. He’s a professor. They don’t interview the father. I think, I’d like to find out more about her from the father.” • It’s been “out there” since 2019.

Kennedy:

Kennedy (I): I have often urged that the distinctive competence of the Democrat Party is control over the ballot. Here Nicole Shanahan explains how that worked out in practice:

MUST WATCH:

RFK’s VP Nicole Shanahan on how the DNC sabotaged their campaign and forced them to be a spoiler. She was a Democrat.

“They kept us off stages, manipulated polls, sued us in every possible state, and even planted insiders in our campaign.”pic.twitter.com/aNbiktWDfK

— Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) August 20, 2024

Realignment and Legitimacy

“A Rancher Who Leads a Paramilitary-Style Group Sues Biden Over Border Policies” [Texas Observer]. Just some detail: “The lead plaintiff is Michael Vickers, a veterinarian who also owns a 1,000-acre ranch in Brooks County. Brooks County, which does not border Mexico, has a population of 7,000 and a long history of recorded deaths of migrants, who die in remote areas while trying to bypass its Border Patrol checkpoint. For nearly two decades, Vickers has led a paramilitary-style, civilian patrol group called the Texas Border Volunteers. Vickers and his wife, Linda, were once affiliated with the Minutemen, an organization that former President George W. Bush called a ‘vigilante’ group. In the suit, Vickers alleges that undocumented immigrants have damaged his property as a result of Biden’s policies. He has incurred more than $50,000 in fence and gate damages since 2021 and the value of his property has decreased, according to the lawsuit. At times, Vickers and other Texas Border Volunteers have offered emergency help or assisted with body recoveries. But the group sees its main mission as finding and detaining migrants, and has a history of allegations against it, including members tying migrants’ hands together with shoelaces or zip ties and taking their belongings, and members pulling weapons on migrants, as the Observer reported in 2014. The group was incorporated in Texas in 2006, state business filings show, and has been tax exempt since 2008, according to Internal Revenue Service records.”

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

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Maskstravaganza

“Mask bans disenfranchise millions of Americans with disabilities” [STAT]. “If masks are banned where I live, I will have to make the choice between endangering my transplant and my health every time I leave the house, or to remain on permanent lockdown in my home. As disability oracle and activist Alice Wong reminds us, mask bans are an extension of ‘ugly laws,’ historical laws and ordinances that prevented disabled people from being in public. We deserve to be seen and to be included in public life. Mask bans are a threat not just to disabled people, but to all of us. It’s never too late to start masking again—to protect not just your health and the health of people around you, but also to protect our fundamental human rights.” • As well as millions of dull normals who just don’t want to be infected because they were breathing.

Mask bans (1):

NEW: Zero tolerance at @UofCalifornia for encampments, blocking pathways, masking to shield identities. President Drake directs chancellors to strictly enforce campus rules after huge protests over the Israel-Hamas war this past spring. https://t.co/hFFRVL4ek5

— Teresa Watanabe (@TeresaWatanabe) August 19, 2024

Mask bans (2):

Nassau County, NY just passed a mask ban and now residents say they are going to take pictures of anyone wearing a mask and send them to police.

This is why we need to stop any kind of mask ban legislation. They empower vigilantes to harass and surveil people wearing masks. pic.twitter.com/80NJgWndpJ

— Dr. Lucky Tran (@luckytran) August 20, 2024

From a Letter to the Editor in Newsday.) On mask bans, I wrote: “The thought occurs, then, that many normal citizens want mask bans not to assist law enforcement, but for acts of vigilantism and private retribution.” This is not vigilantism, but if Perlmutter had thought to introduce the concept of citizens arrests, it would be.

Vaccines: Covid

“COVID vaccine efficacy against severe illness just under 50%, per early estimates from 2023” [Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy]. “Two European observational studies estimate the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of the COVID-19 XBB.1.5 vaccine approved in fall 2023 against hospitalization, the first one finding 49% overall VE in adults, and one showing good protection—but uneven uptake—among pregnant women.” • For XBB.1.5, not the currently dominant KP* variants.

Transmission: Covid

“‘A much more infectious’ COVID variant fueling California’s relentless surge” [Los Angeles Times]. “‘It’s so surprising to me that it hasn’t gone down yet,’ said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious diseases specialist at UC San Francisco. ‘It’s a little bit more of a prolonged season for California.'” Ah, UCSF. Maybe we should ask Bob Wachter. More: “‘It’s this confluence of a much more infectious variant on top of folks’ overall immunity having waned — either from natural or vaccine-induced immunity,’ [Dr. Elizabeth Hudson, regional chief of infectious diseases at Kaiser Permanente Southern California] said. ‘It’s just kind of come [as] a perfect storm.'” With non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) only being considered far too late, as usual. More: “An open question is whether COVID will continue to rise as kids go back to school. Doctors are urging people to stay home if they’re sick and asking parents to keep their ill kids from attending school, to limit spread of disease.” NPIs erased again! Funny thing, Kamala’s from California. So is Pelosi. And yet they never mention Covid at all.

Sequelae: Covid

“Patients recovering from COVID-19 who presented with anosmia during their acute episode have behavioral, functional, and structural brain alterations” [Scientific Reports]. N = 73. From the Abstract: “Here, we report findings from a sample of patients consisting of 73 adults with a mild to moderate SARS-CoV-2 infection without signs of respiratory failure and 27 with infections attributed to other agents and no history of COVID-19. The participants underwent cognitive screening, a decision-making task, and MRI evaluations. We assessed for the presence of anosmia and the requirement for hospitalization. Groups did not differ in age or cognitive performance. Patients who presented with anosmia exhibited more impulsive alternative changes after a shift in probabilities (r = − 0.26, p = 0.001), while patients who required hospitalization showed more perseverative choices (r = 0.25, p = 0.003). Anosmia correlated with brain measures, including decreased functional activity during the decision-making task, thinning of cortical thickness in parietal regions, and loss of white matter integrity. Hence, anosmia could be a factor to be considered when identifying at-risk populations for follow-up.”

Morbidity and Mortality

“Deaths Are Up Post-Covid, and So Are Funeral Stocks: Prognosis” [Bloomberg]. “The number of officially reported Covid fatalities (7.1 million worldwide) doesn’t fully explain the trend in excess deaths. (Neither do Covid vaccines, since body bags were piling up months before the shots were released, and multiple studies show the immunizations protect against severe illness and death). There’s no silver lining to the tragic loss of life. But if one group sees an upside, it’s those providing funerals, cremations, and burials. Publicly traded companies handling funerals and related services have handed investors an average 79% return since Jan. 1, 2020 — outpacing the 60% gain in the MSCI All Country World Index, one of the broadest measures of the global equity market. The US highlights the morbid picture. In the two decades before the pandemic, the number of deaths had been climbing at an average clip of almost 1% a year — reflecting population growth and aging, and the devastating opioid epidemic — for a crude rate in 2019 of 869.7 deaths for every 100,000 Americans. Covid catapulted the rate well beyond 1,000 in 2020 and 2021 before the rate dropped back to just over 984 in 2022. Last year, there were 927.4 deaths per 100,000 people in the US — almost 12% above the 20-year average — for nearly 3.1 million deaths all up. The coronavirus directly and indirectly contributed to many of them. For instance, a jump in drug overdoses and alcohol use–related diseases during the pandemic likely added to fatalities from unintentional injuries and chronic liver disease in 2023, according to a study this month. Covid also led to more cardiometabolic disease, and age-adjusted mortality rates for diabetes, heart disease, and stroke were above pre-pandemic levels.” • Go long morticians. Surprised, actually, that Silicon Valley hasn’t tried to “disrupt” this business.

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TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Lambert here: Worth noting that national Emergency Room admissions are as high as they were in the first wave, in 2020.

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC August 12:	Last Week[2] CDC July 22 (until next week):
Variants [3] CDC August 10	Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC August 10
Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, data August 20:	National [6] CDC July 27:
Positivity
National[7] Walgreens August 20:	★ Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic August 17:
Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC July 29:	Variants[10] CDC July 29:
Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC July 27:	Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC July 27:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Keeps spreading.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. First showing of the new variant from China, XDV.1 (though it didn’t appear in traveler’s data).

[4] (ER) Worth noting Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Going down. Doesn’t need to be a permanent thing, of course. (The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what is, in percentage terms, a significant increase.

[7] (Walgreens) Fiddling and diddling.

[8] (Cleveland) Jumping.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time range. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) The new variant in China, XDV.1, is not showing up here.

[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

There are no official statistics of interest today.

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Tech: “AI initiatives would get $40M annually in draft California journalism bill agreements” [Politico]. “Artificial intelligence initiatives would receive tens of millions of dollars in a draft settlement on a closely watched state legislative effort to make large platforms like Google and Meta fund California newsrooms. The draft proposal, dated Saturday afternoon, would see California form a public-private partnership with Google and news publishers to fund in-state newsrooms and AI over five years. The partnership would provide over $300 million across five years, including at least $40 million annually for an unspecified ‘AI Innovation Accelerator’ program managed by a ‘yet-to-be finalized’ nonprofit…. A summary of the draft proposal says it aims to ‘strengthen democracy and the future of work in an Artificial Intelligence future’ — a remarkable shift from the original purpose of Assemblymember Buffy Wicks’ bill, which aimed to make platforms share advertising profits from news-link sharing back to California newsrooms.” • Ah, Buffy Wicks.

Manufacturing: “Boeing Finds Cracks in Structure of 777X Test Jets” [Wall Street Journal]. “Shares of Boeing fell about 5% Tuesday after the plane maker found cracks in the structure of its 777X jetliner in initial test flights, the latest setback for the long-delayed airplane. The company said it would ground its four-plane test fleet while it replaces the faulty component and sorts out what went wrong. Boeing has orders for about 500 of the new aircraft that it plans to start delivering in 2025. It is unclear what impact the issue could have on the plane’s launch date. The 777X, designed for airlines wanting to connect the globe’s major cities and to carry some 400 passengers more, is already years behind. Boeing unveiled the plane in 2013 and said it would start delivering the model in 2020. …. The company is also facing scrutiny of another of its jets, the 787 Dreamliner. The Federal Aviation Administration said it would require inspections of Dreamliners after an incident with a cockpit seat led to a LatAm flight plunging midflight in March.” • That new CEO sure must have his hands full.

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Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 50 Neutral (previous close: 44 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 27 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Aug 21 at 1:10:16 PM ET.

Gallery

Topical:

As Far back as his Grandfather, 1799
Get more Goya 🍒 https://t.co/tjHb5y4Eji pic.twitter.com/NkXC8PXo0t

— Francisco Goya (@artistgoya) August 19, 2024

Groves of Academe

“History’s Footnotes” [JSTOR]. “”Once the historian writes with footnotes, historical narrative becomes a distinctly modern” practice, [historian Anthony Grafton] explains. History is no longer a matter of rumor, unsubstantiated opinion, or whim. ‘The text persuades, the note proves,’ he avers. Footnotes do double duty, for they also ‘persuade as well as prove’ and open up the work to a multitude of voices… Leopold von Ranke (1795–1886), the founder of source-based history, is usually credited with the “invention” of the scholarly footnote in the European tradition. Grafton describes von Ranke’s theory as sharper than his practice: his footnoting was much too sloppy to be a model for scholars today. But various forms of footnotes were used long before von Ranke. Sources were of vital importance to both Roman lawyers and Christian theologians in late antiquity and the early Middle Ages, as they strove to back up their own arguments with the weight and gravitas of others… As Grafton writes in a second article about this history of naming one’s sources, ‘the modern footnote—with its full bibliographical details, discussion of variant texts and sources, and separate place on the page […] seems to have arrived at its definitive form in the later 17th century.’ Pierre Bayle’s enormously influential Historical and Critical Dictionary (1697) is the thing to cite here. The Dictionary ‘consisted in large part of footnotes (and even footnotes to footnotes).’ Within a few decades scholars emulating Bayle ‘were producing footnotes by the bushel—and satirists were making fun of them for doing so.’ Grafton has a candidate for the longest known footnote: it’s 165 pages long and found in John Hodgson’s 1840 History of Northumberland. The award for the Most Ironic Footnotes goes to Edward Gibbon, who plays it straight in the text of The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire (published between 1776 and 1789) and then adds the snark to the footnotes, playfully undermining the seriousness of the endeavor above.” • Who doesn’t love footnotes?

Zeitgeist Watch

“Do Robots Love Their Customers? Automated Restaurants Face Human Issues” [New York Times]. “But people come to restaurants to feel connected to other humans. They want to encounter people, not a chatbot, kiosk or mechanical arm. So successfully integrating robots is more than just an engineering challenge. Professor Giebelhausen has found, for example, that consumers prefer human chefs to robot ones, in part because they believe that humans cook with love. In a paper currently under review, he and his co-authors found that if consumers had a friendly text chat with the robot, that preference faded. ‘The crux is, if you feel the robot loves you,’ he said, ‘you allow the robot to cook with love.'” • That’s all very well, but the feeling has no basis in reality whatever.

“Please don’t stack rocks on your next hike. Here’s why” [Lonely Planet]. “Hike far enough on just about any trail in the world, and you’ll likely spot a collection of stones placed atop each other that form impromptu sculptures. Some call them cairns. Others favor more colorful terms like ‘stone balancing’ or ‘prayer stone stacks.’ Whatever the name, the act of stacking rocks atop each other is ubiquitous. Over the past decade or so, for better or worse, rock-stacking has become even more popular. What many don’t know, though, is that the practice is controversial, particularly in national parks and other protected areas. Depending on who you ask, it can be a crucial navigational device, a rewarding mindfulness practice or an environmental menace…. Today, the popularity of rock cairns has less to do with utility and tradition and more to do with social media. At least that’s the opinion of the Colorado-based rock-stacking artist, Michael Grab, who goes by the moniker Gravity Glue….’It really started to blow up between 2014 and 2015,’ he said, speaking about the trend of stacking rocks in gravity-defying formations and then posting the photos onto social media. ‘Then it exploded into this international art form, and what was maybe a handful of practitioners became hundreds.’ Others followed, stacking rocks on beaches, on hiking trails, and, much to the chagrin of conservationists, in places where visitors are specifically asked to ‘leave no trace.’…. Besides potentially confusing lost hikers, critics say rock-stacking can be culturally insensitive to past and present residents of the area. They also point to the cumulative effects disruptions can have on ecosystems underfoot…. While the National Park Service at times employs rock-stacking as part of its route-marking system, in most parks, the agency prohibits people from adding their own cairns. Like carving initials into a tree, leaving trash at a campground or spray-painting your name on a boulder, rock-stacking in most (but not all) national parks is punishable under the same laws that protect these places against vandalism and littering.” • Hmm.

News of the Wired

“Why People Procrastinate, and How to Overcome It” [Scientific American]. “Putting it all together, our research sheds light on the processes that lead to procrastination. When faced with a deadline, people seem to ask themselves, “Do I want to do this now?” That leads them to weigh the pros and cons involved—and their biases then come into play. Although additional rigorous testing is required, the training procedure used in our last study shows promise as an avenue to assist people who struggle with procrastination. Cognitive training based on this approach—for example, through an app—could help people who struggle with delaying tasks. But there are more immediate implications of our work as well. Our research indicates that valence weighting has the biggest impact among people who lack the motivation and cognitive resources to pause and deliberate beyond their initial quick appraisals on whether or not to tackle a task. In other words, just pushing yourself to think a little bit more before acting may help you generate more positive reasons to get started and to ensure you don’t put off to tomorrow what you might best tackle today.” • I don’t think rumination helps…

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ET writes: “Caught this guy on my snapdragons one morning. Eastern Pondhawk.”

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