By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Extremely patient readers, I’m afraid brunch got utterly out of control. So this is quite skeletal, although I will add in as much as I can, as fast as I can! In the meantime, talk amongst yourselves! –lambert
Bird Song of the Day
Blue Mockingbird, along the canal, Oaxaca, MX (17,2, -96,751), Etla, Oaxaca, Mexico.
In Case You Might Miss…
- Trump and the Jack Smith brief.
- Boeing and Longshoremen strikes.
- UCLA tools up.
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Trump Assassination Attempts (Plural)
“Take him out”?!?
NEW: Crowd starts clapping after 'The View' co-host Sunny Hostin appears to suggest that Melania Trump wants to k*ll Donald Trump.
Hostin says Melania wants to "take [Trump] out" because she "hates" him.
Hostin: "I think she hates him. So we can all agree on that. That's a… pic.twitter.com/99p2xokU8P
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 3, 2024
See Stoller in 2017, “On Mocking Dying Working Class White People.” Liberal Democrats have been wishing death on their political enemies for some time. Now they yuk it up on daytime television.
2024
Less than forty days to go!
Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:
This week’s crop of flag-of-convenience Democrat celebrities and generals didn’t turn the tide either. Despite the micturition and lamentation (very much including my own) about the Trump campaign dogging it when the election is theirs to win (see Gallup, “2024 Election Environment Favorable to GOP” on the issues) do note the steady deterioration in Kamala’s position in the (aggregated) top battlegrounds. (Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars especially might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.
“Battleground States Wrap-Up: Race Remains Effectively Tied” [RealClearPolling]. “The latest round of swing state polling indicates that neither Trump nor Harris has made significant gains in the swing states. In the RealClearPolitics Average of the Top Battleground States, the race is again a dead-even tie, meaning any small changes in the race over the next month could decide who wins the presidency. If these RCP Averages hold until Election Day, the race will be incredibly close. As the RCP No Toss-Up Map shows, if the election were decided by the current averages, Trump would win with 281-257 electoral votes. However, the outcome hinges on Pennsylvania, where Trump leads by just 0.1 points, leaving the election a toss-up with a little over a month to go until Election Day.” • Then again–
If I turn all the leans Red or Blue at 270toWin, but give Harris North Carolina (based on Helene depressing Republican turnout in Western North Carolina (“Events, dear boy. Events”)), Harris wins, making — to my dismay — Pennsylvania irrelevant:
(Then again, if Michigan goes red, and Trump wins Pennsylvania, Trump wins.)
“Investors turn to volatility trades to profit from tight US election” [Financial Times]. “[T]he tight race means trading volatility is seen as a safer bet than trying to guess which stocks or sectors will do well from a victory for former president Donald Trump or vice-president Kamala Harris. ‘Our base case is still that this is basically a toss-up, and most clients have coalesced around the same view,’ said Stuart Kaiser, head of US equity trading strategy at Citi. ‘If you talk to a client who thinks it’s 60-40 in favour of Trump, you could talk about owning bank stocks. If you think Kamala is more likely to win, trading a basket makes sense,’ he added. ‘But if you think it’s 50-50, it will be very hard to trade directionally, it’s more of a vol trade.’ Trading volatility typically requires investors to use more complicated derivatives trades, leading to a range of complex strategies with names such as ‘straddles’ and ‘collars’ that involve buying and selling several derivatives tied to individual stocks or an index such as the S&P 500.”
“October surprises are piling up, but a toss-up race seems impervious to shocks” [CNN]. “The White House is grappling with three challenges that could threaten the vice president’s hopes and offer an opening to the Republican nominee’s narrative of Biden-era negligence. A month before Election Day, the US faces the grave possibility of being dragged into a Middle East conflagration; a port workers’ strike could harm inflation-weary consumers; and political pressure is rising in the fallout of Hurricane Helene. Trump, meanwhile, was hit on Wednesday by the unsealing of a 165-page document in which special counsel Jack Smith gives the fullest picture of his case in the federal 2020 election interference case. The ex-president has pleaded not guilty, but the filing re-injected his attempt to steal the last election into the frantic endgame of a campaign partially shaped by Democrats’ claims he poses an existential threat to American democracy. Each situation highlights potential vulnerabilities for both candidates as voters make up their minds. The trio of tests facing Harris comes with potential economic, political and humanitarian consequences if the administration errs. And the new scrutiny of Trump’s behavior after the 2020 election could cause some voters to again question his fitness for the Oval Office.”
* * * Kamala (D): “Opinion: Vance is right. Harris and Walz are a threat to Americans’ free speech” [Jonathan Turley, USA Today]. On “fire in a croweded theatre: “[Walz] cited a case in which socialists Charles Schenck and Elizabeth Baer were arrested and convicted of violating the Espionage Act of 1917. Their ‘crime’ was to pass out flyers in opposition to the military draft during World War I. Schenck and Baer called on their fellow citizens not to ‘submit to intimidation’ and to ‘assert your rights.’ They argued, ‘If you do not assert and support your rights, you are helping to deny or disparage rights which it is the solemn duty of all citizens and residents of the United States to retain.’ They also described the military draft as ‘involuntary servitude.’ Holmes used his ‘fire in a theater’; line to justify the abusive conviction and incarceration. At the House hearing, when I was trying to explain that the justice later walked away from the line and Schenck was effectively overturned in 1969 in Brandenburg v. Ohio, [Rep. Dan Goldman, D-N.Y.] cut me off and said, ‘We don’t need a law class here.’ In the vice presidential debate, Walz showed that he and other Democratic leaders most certainly do need a class in First Amendment law.”
Kamala (D): “VP Kamala Harris announces 100% reimbursement of local Helene response costs during remarks in Augusta” [WABE]. “Vice President Kamala Harris announced Wednesday that President Joe Biden has approved Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s request for 100% reimbursement of local costs of responding to the aftermath of Hurricane Helene during remarks in Augusta, Georgia. Harris said the federal reimbursement will cover costs for services like food, water and shelter provided by local governments, debris removal and emergency services.” • Meanwhile–
Kamala (D):
NEW: Kamala Harris kindly offers $750 to Americans who have lost their homes due to flooding from Hurricane Helene.
The development comes as the Biden administration is now bragging about providing 67 Starlink satellites to impacted communities.
For reference, the United States… pic.twitter.com/sTM6iix7G9
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 2, 2024
But:
$750 should handle it… pic.twitter.com/qaOlpWIpmp
— @amuse (@amuse) October 3, 2024
And:
Dear Ukraine, if you could send a few billion dollars to the Hurricane Helene victims, that would be great! pic.twitter.com/d4i4IS15U4
— dianafrancisco (@dianafr55045805) October 3, 2024
I am not certain that $750 will be the entire payment. Nevertheless, directionally this is correct: The empire matters orders of magnitude more to our ruling class than the domestic population (though is not at all the way a MAGA voter would express the matter). On the bright side, I can put the $750 against the $600 Biden still owes me, so I come out ahead!
Kamala (D): “Tim Walz’s Long Game Will Pay Off” [The Nation]. “The classic example of a slow-fuse debate moment that ended up having an impact is Gerald Ford’s famous gaffe in his 1976 debate with Jimmy Carter. Fending off critiques that his foreign policy was indifferent to the oppression of the USSR, Ford declared, “I don’t believe that the Poles consider themselves dominated by the Soviet Union.” Ford’s point was a subtle one: that even under Soviet rule, Poles had a spirit of resistance. But his wording made it sound like he was flippantly disregarding Soviet imperial domination of Eastern Europe…. Over the next few days, the full import of Ford’s words began to sink in, especially after they were highlighted over and over again in press coverage. The fact that Ford, far from clarifying his remarks, stubbornly dug in only made matters worse. Ford lost crucial days in an election and solidified his reputation as an out-of-touch oaf…. Tuesday’s debate between JD Vance and Tim Walz is likely to play out with the same slow-fuse dynamic…. The instant polling done after the debate shows that it was basically a wash…. But even these poll numbers should be treated as preliminary, because Walz very smartly played a long game in the debate…. The key to Walz’s strategy was not to go after Vance directly (since very few voters care about the vice president); rather, Walz got Vance to commit himself to one of Trump’s most unpopular actions, inciting the January 6 attack on the Capitol (Walz’s damning “non-answer”). The Harris campaign is right to focus on this exchange. Even more than Gerald Ford’s Poland gaffe, it’s an error that illuminates—in an easy-to-understand way—everything wrong with a candidate. Vance’s comments show not just his own moral cravenness but also the way Trump has bullied all those who work with him into accepting the Big Lie about the 2024 campaign. If the Harris campaign and its surrogates keep pushing this clip, they can bog down the Trump campaign for days if not weeks in defending the indefensible.” • Hmm. An old debate strategy called sand-bagging, although in this case the blow lands after the debate is over. Should be happening already, with only 33 days to go.
* * * Trump (R) (Smith/Chutkan): “One Month Before Election Day, Judge Chutkan Allows Jack Smith to Broadcast His Evidence” [Andrew McCarthy, National Review]. “Smith has argued, preposterously, that ‘the public‘ — by which he means Democrats — has a right to a speedy trial because of the importance of the Trump cases. To the contrary, the Constitution gives only the defendant a speedy-trial right, which defendants may and frequently do waive if they need more time to prepare their defense (also a constitutional right). The public has an interest in a just trial, not a prompt one — and there is nothing just about prosecutors’ filing four indictments against their party’s political rival with the objective of trying him before Election Day in a manner that gives him inadequate time to prepare for trial, let alone prepare for four trials…. And as for the asserted importance of the cases, it lies in their political consequence (if any), which is a factor that prosecutors and judges are not supposed to weigh; there are unambiguous Justice Department rules to this effect. For the umpteenth time, this is not to minimize Trump’s activities in connection with the 2020 election — the stop-the-steal scheme and the Capitol riot (for which I’ve repeatedly said Trump was rightly impeached, and should have been convicted and disqualified from future office; and over which I’ve repeatedly argued that Republicans were nuts to nominate him, as opposed to a more nationally viable candidate who, by now, would be ten points up against Kamala Harris). It is to stress that is not a legitimate law-enforcement or judicial priority to force a pre-election trial of those charges.” • On the Smith brief FWIW:
A bit of tit for tat:
Last night, Trump’s lawyers filed a motion asking Chutkan to allow them to file a similarly excessive response to Jack Smith’s behemoth of an “immunity motion” and to extend deadline for filing.
Trump’s response to Smith’s 165-page dossier is due Oct 17. pic.twitter.com/x4QTHgOWkT
— Julie Kelly 🇺🇸 (@julie_kelly2) October 3, 2024
Case for the defense (though last I checked, Rasmussen was a polling operation, so what’s up with this?
Lots of shrill noise today about 2020 election fraud. President Trump says 2020 was “rigged.” Evidence collected by official state and court case investigations indicate that it was. Evidence links by state are for readers below. Dig in. https://t.co/SchLyucrRV
— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) October 3, 2024
Trump (R) (Smith/Chutkan): “11 damning details in Jack Smith’s new brief in the Trump election case” [Politico]. “Much of Smith’s brief focused on Trump’s state of mind in the weeks leading up to the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021. Smith described a slew of conversations suggesting that the then-president knew his claims of election fraud were spurious. And Smith laid out evidence that Trump’s sole objective was to stay in power — not, as he and his lawyers have claimed, to exercise legitimate authority over election integrity.”
Trump (R): “Trump calls Jack Smith filing ‘pure election interference’ ” [NewsNation]. “Former President Donald Trump called the unsealing of documents in his election interference case by special counsel Jack Smith a “weaponization of the government” during an exclusive interview with NewsNation on Wednesday in Houston, Texas. The Republican nominee was at a private fundraiser when he told NewsNation’s Ali Bradley that Smith is a ‘deranged person’ following the dismissal of his separate classified documents case in July. ‘This was a weaponization of the government … and released 30 days before the election,’ Trump said of Wednesday’s developments. ‘My poll numbers have gone up instead of down. It is pure election interference.’ The interview came after prosecutors, in a court filing unsealed Wednesday, said Trump “resorted to crimes” after losing the 2020 election by disregarding the advice of his vice president and other aides.”
* * * Trump (R): “Trump floats deporting legal Haitian migrants living in Ohio” [Axios]. “Trump, speaking to NewsNation in Houston, Texas, said he would revoke the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Haitian immigrants and ‘bring them back to their country.’ ‘In my opinion, it’s not legal. It’s not legal for anybody to do,’ Trump said. TPS is a federal program that allows migrants from some countries to legally live in the United States for a certain period when the conditions in their home country are unsafe. Migrants from Haiti, Afghanistan, Ukraine and Venezuela are among some countries eligible for the program, requiring participants to re-register with the Department of Homeland Security each year. Haitians have been included in the TPS program since January 22, 2010, following a 7.0 magnitude earthquake that killed around 220,000 people.” • For some definition of “legal.” 2010 seems like rather a long time ago.
Trump (R): “Melania Trump says she forced Donald to drop hardline immigration policy” [Guardian]. “Regarding child separations, she continues [in her book]: ‘While I support strong borders, what was going on at the border was simply unacceptable. I immediately addressed my deep concerns with Donald regarding the family separations, emphasizing the trauma it was causing these families. As a mother myself, I stressed: ‘The government should not be taking children away from their parents.’ I communicated with great clarity … ‘This has to stop.’ ‘Donald assured me that he would investigate the issue, and on 20 June, he announced the end of the family separation policy.’ The first lady’s intervention was reported at the time.”
* * * Kennedy (I): “Exclusive: Multiple Women Claiming Romantic Relationships With RFK Jr. Threaten His Standing in Trump Orbit” [Mediate]. “At least three women are claiming to have had romantic relationships with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in just the last year, as he pursued a long-shot bid for the presidency, Mediaite has learned.” Well, “three” is “multiple,” so. More: “Kennedy has long been dogged by allegations of infidelity…. In an interview with The New York Sun, several days after Mediaite first reached out to Kennedy for comment, he was asked about the news of his alleged relationship with Nuzzi. He declined to speak about that specific story, but joked to his host, ‘I have so many skeletons in my closet, if they could vote I’d be king of the world.'”
* * * “Abortion Rights, Elections, Criminal Justice, and Much More: The 2024 State Ballot Issues to Watch” [Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball]. ” This year, 41 states have at least one measure on the ballot for voters to weigh in on, and many have multiple measures. The highest-profile issue on the ballot this year—as was the case in 2022 and 2023—is abortion. In all, 10 states have pro-abortion rights measures on the ballot, including such purple and red states as Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, and South Dakota. Nebraska also has an anti-abortion measure on the ballot.” • Enormous roundup of all the state ballots.
* * * CA: “Federal judge stops implementation of California misinformation law” [Courthouse News]. “A federal judge ruled Wednesday that California’s law prohibiting altered election-related communications doesn’t pass constitutional scrutiny and the state can’t enforce it. The decision by U.S. District Senior Judge John Mendez to issue a preliminary injunction is a win for Christopher Kohls, known online as “Mr. Reagan,” who argued in his lawsuit that Assembly Bill 2839 made computer-generated parody illegal. Assemblymember Gail Pellerin, a Santa Cruz Democrat, wrote the law banning digitally manipulated communications, like mailers and video ads, that are false or misleading and target an election worker, elected official, voting equipment or people running for office four months before an election. People who receive such content would be able to seek damages from the distributor. Kohls, who has some 360,000 YouTube subscribers, calls political satire a fundamental First Amendment right. His suit is similar to one filed Monday in federal court by conservative humor website The Babylon Bee, which targeted two bills, one of them being AB 2839. ‘We are gratified that the district court agreed with our analysis that new technologies do not change the principles behind First Amendment protections,’ Theodore Frank, one of Kohls’ attorneys, said in a statement.”
MI: “Haunted by 2016, some Michigan Democrats worry that Harris remains ill-defined in swing state” [Associated Press]. “Democrats in the state have seemed ascendant since [2016], controlling the governorship, both Senate seats and the state legislature. But some party leaders here are worried that trend is not enough to put distance between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Harris’ campaign is banking on the fact that they have spent considerably more money than Trump on ads and have a stronger voter outreach program. Michigan is a state that Harris almost certainly must win to capture the White House, and Democrats’ concerns are rooted in the fear that polls don’t register all Trump supporters both here and in other battleground states as the campaign enters a critical final phase.” And the Muslim/Uncommitted vote: “The death of a Dearborn resident, who Dingell and other community leaders this week said was killed in south Lebanon, has only ignited anger in the traditionally Democratic area. Kamel Ahmad Jawad’s death was confirmed Wednesday by a spokesperson for the White House’s National Security Council…. Harris may overcome divisions within the Democratic coalition by boosting voter turnout in Wayne County, home to Detroit, where low turnout in 2016 contributed to Clinton’s loss. Black community leaders noted that excitement surged when Harris entered the race in the summer, and that some momentum continues in the majority-Black city of Eastpointe, just north of Detroit.” Interestingly: “‘Democrats’ financial resources absolutely dwarf anything that the Republicans have,’ said former Republican Michigan Gov. John Engler. “But Trump is making stops in locations that have never had presidential visits before, and those are impactful with margins this close.”
NC: “How Will Hurricane Helene Affect This Wildly Close Election?” [Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine]. On North Carolina: “Obviously people who have lost homes or other possessions to high winds and (especially) flooding and/or who lack power or other essentials for an extended period of time are especially dependent on emergency assistance and may be grateful if it arrives expeditiously. Beyond for those immediately affected, the perceived competence and compassion of government entities dealing with disaster relief and recovery efforts can affect how voters assess those in office, particularly in a high-profile situation like that created by Helene. An American Enterprise Institute study of [Hurricane] Sandy suggested that the Obama administration’s response to the storm was a major factor in the incumbent’s ability to win late deciders in 2012, topped by this finding: ‘Fully 15 percent of the electorate rated Obama’s hurricane response as the most important factor in their vote.’ At the other end of the spectrum, the George W. Bush administration’s tardy, confused, and seemingly indifferent response to the calamity of Hurricane Katrina in August and September of 2005 had an enduringly negative effect on perceptions of his presidency, even though it occurred nowhere close to a national election, as Reid Wilson explained… While FEMA and HUD are typically the federal agencies most involved in disaster response and recovery, presidential leadership in a disaster always gets attention, too, and the risk of negative publicity or graphic displays of unmet needs won’t go away immediately. Bureaucratic backlogs in distributing funds and approving applications for assistance could cause voter unhappiness long after the initial damage is addressed. The bottom line is that barring unexpected developments or a major series of screwups in the federal response, Hurricane Helene is likely to mark a big moment in the lives of people in and near the areas of devastation but probably won’t much affect their voting behavior. Obviously the campaigns and their allies will need to adjust their get-out-the-vote operations and show some sensitivity to the suffering of people whose lives were turned upside down. We can only hope the election itself and its aftermath don’t add violence and trauma to the damage done.” • These questions can be answered empirically, at least in North Carolina, by reporting on roads being open, precincts open, and people’s reactions generally. Of course, the press would have to go outside Asheville to do this, so answers seem unlikely.
PA: “In the presidential election’s most important state, the race is a dead heat” [Brookings]. “In 2024, all roads lead to Pennsylvania, the largest of the seven swing states. In all probability, the winner of the state will win the election. It is the state that each candidate can least afford to lose. If Kamala Harris wins Pennsylvania as well as Michigan and Wisconsin, she will have 270 electoral votes, whatever happens in the contested southern and southwestern states. If Donald Trump wins Pennsylvania as well as Georgia and North Carolina, he will have 270 electoral votes, whatever happens in the southwest or the upper Midwest… Harris’ path to victory in Pennsylvania faces a key hurdle: The Democratic advantage in voter registration has continued the erosion that began right after the Obama surge of 2008. Since 2020, the Democratic edge has been cut in half, from 686,000 to just 343,000, while Republican and Independent registration has continued to increase. As a share of the total electorate, Republican registration rose from 39.0% in 2020 to 40.2% this year while the Democratic share fell from 46.5% to 44.1%, reducing the Democratic edge from 7.5 points to 3.9 points.”
PA: “Another ‘Hard Tie’ in the Race for President in PA” [RealClearPennsylvania]. “Independent voters say that Trump would be better for their personal finances by a 50–38% margin. Since the top issue for all voters remains the economy, that’s advantage Trump. The next most important issue to voters is threats to democracy, followed by immigration. Pennsylvania is on a razor’s edge in both the presidential and Senate races.” • Interesting, that #2.
Realignment and Legitimacy
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Lambert here: At last, the wastewater data looks improved. Apparenltly, we dodged a “Back to School” bullet, at least at the national level. The wastewater drop is reinforced by the positivity numbers as well.
Wastewater | |
This week[1] CDC September 23 | Last Week[2] CDC (until next week): |
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Variants [3] CDC September 28 | Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC September 21 |
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Hospitalization | |
New York[5] New York State, data October 1: |
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Positivity | |
National[7] Walgreens September 30: | Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic September 26: |
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Travelers Data | |
Positivity[9] CDC September 9: | Variants[10] CDC September 9: |
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Deaths | |
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 21: | Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 21: |
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LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Much less intense!
[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XEC has entered the chat.
[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC).
[7] (Walgreens) Big drop continues!
[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up, though lagged.
[10] (Travelers: Variants).
[11] Deaths low, positivity down.
[12] Deaths low, ED down.
Stats Watch
Employment Situation: “United States Initial Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US rose by 6,000 from the previous week to 225,000 on the period ending September 28th, surpassing market expectations of 220,000 to mark a new three-week high. The rise in claims kept initial counts above the averages recorded earlier this year, reinforcing the trend of a softening labor market and supporting predictions that the Federal Reserve will implement rate cuts in each remaining decision this year.”
Employment SItuation: “United States Challenger Job Cuts” [Trading Economics]. “US employers announced 72,821 job cuts in September 2024, slightly down from 75,891 in August, but 53% higher than 47,457 a year earlier. Technology announced the most job cuts….”
Manufacturing: “United States Factory Orders” [Trading Economics]. “New orders for US manufactured goods eased by 0.2% from the previous month to $590.4 billion in August of 2024, trimming the downwardly revised 4.9% jump in the previous month, and missing forecasts that it would have remained unchanged.”
“Everyone Is Getting the Dockworkers Strike All Wrong” [Salon]. “Yes, it’s a story about modern-day labor anxieties and union leverage—but it’s also about something far more complex than your typical workers-vs.-bosses toss-up…. But the dockworkers of today have to be skilled, knowledgeable, and dexterous enough to ensure that the incoming freight trucks, the hefty equipment, the potentially hazardous cargo, and the boats themselves operate safely and smoothly throughout all steps of the process… That premium on skill and labor, added to the union’s historic strength, makes these dockworkers ‘the highest-paid blue-collar workers in the country,’ as the American Prospect notes… The main sticking point, however, is displacement. The business interests in charge of the ports want to embed more self-propelling technology within dock work, whether that constitutes automated trucks, gates, or cranes. This trend has taken off at dozens of ports across the world. Still, multiple studies and real-world examples have shown that full or semi-automation does not actually do much to reduce costs or increase efficiency at the docks, although in certain applications, it can help to ensure human safety. And therein lies another primary conflict about tech at the docks: The Maritime Alliance is interested in leaving some leeway for automation, but the dockworkers want absolutely none. The work may be grueling, but it’s among the few organized blue-collar professions that can offer its employees a solid lifestyle and dignity.”
Manufacturing: “Boeing Jet Catches Fire Before Takeoff, Prompting Airport Closure” [Men’s Journal]. “Almost 200 travelers were evacuated from a Boeing jet as walls of flames spewed from one of the engines, video shared to X (formerly Twitter) shows. The incident occurred early on Wednesday morning at Italy’s Brindisi Airport shortly before a Boeing 737 operated by Ryanair was scheduled to take off. Smoke filled the cabin as crews quickly responded and evacuated the jet, but not before one passenger captured footage of the flames licking the plane’s window.” • Whoops. (Reuters mentions “fumes.”)
Manufacturing: “Boeing’s Frail Finances Give Strikers All the Power” [Bloomberg]. “The company is in a dire financial position, burning through billions of dollars of cash and teetering at the edge of having its credit rating cut to junk. The company has floated the idea of raising $10 billion or more by selling shares, which wouldn’t happen until the strike is resolved. The approximately 33,000 machinists on strike know this. Time is on their side. … Boeing needs to reach a deal with its striking workers and crank up aircraft production. The backlog of aircraft orders is piling up. This is cash and financial relief just waiting to be unlocked. No doubt a hefty pay raise will squeeze future profit margins, but it’s unlikely the company, being in such as weakened state, can outlast the determination of its workers…. It’s time for new Chief Executive Officer Kelly Ortberg to settle this strike and begin to repair labor relations. Without buy-in from its workforce, the company can’t begin to change a factory-floor culture that had eroded on safety and quality to the point where the Federal Aviation Administration had to intervene.”
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 67 Greed (previous close: 68 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 68 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Oct 3 at 1:53:13 PM ET.
Surely not?
friend saw this guy on the apps lol pic.twitter.com/NuwYYp4CNv
— mindy🌷 (@mindyisser) October 3, 2024
Gallery
For Alma-Tadema stans, thread worth reading in full:
This is a 1436 painting by Flemish master Jan van Eyck, of Mary, Jesus, and saints.
You might think it's just an ordinary devotional painting — think again… pic.twitter.com/lgcGoYNnu9
— Culture Critic (@Culture_Crit) October 2, 2024
Groves of Academe
“Students and faculty object to UCLA’s purchase of more military hardware” [Los Angeles Public Press]. “The University of California Regents approved the purchase of military equipment at September’s UC Regents meeting at UCLA. The unanimous vote took place behind closed doors while the UCLA Police Department (UCPD), dressed in riot gear, forced those who came to give public comment outside of the building. The approved purchases include 3,000 rounds of pepper munitions, 500 rounds of 40mm impact munitions, 12 drones, and nine less-lethal launchers across six University of California campuses.” • Oh.
No:
Call me old-fashioned, but I thought we’d pretty much sorted the design of the cup. pic.twitter.com/zP1tmG9Mtd
— Henry Moeran (@henrymoeranBBC) October 2, 2024
Make that holder coin-operated, and you’ve got a rentier’s cup.
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“Image, those things that might drive you crazy.”
Just enough downward angle to pick up extreme curveture of breakwater.
Railing is NOT horizontal. Measure from bottom of picture.
Meanwhile, bodies rotting in trees in Southeast as FEMA proudly carries out it’s equity adminstration and filters out undeserving recipients.
https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/national-preparedness/equity
> bodies rotting in trees in Southeast
Something that vivid needs a link.
https://nypost.com/2024/09/30/us-news/death-toll-triples-in-asheville-area-after-hurricane-helene-guts-north-carolina/
“There were bodies in trees. They were finding bodies under rubble,” said Alyssa Hudson, whose home of Black Mountain — a village of 8,400 people about 12 miles from Asheville — was all but destroyed.
This is coincident. Explains condemning entire towns in the area and promoting lockdowns.
https://www.cbs17.com/news/north-carolina-news/nc-lithium-mine-to-reopen-with-90-million-pentagon-order-to-help-increase-u-s-production/
Bonus for administration. No way anyone there can vote.
i saw reference to that literally all over my twitterwander at 3am…dont have links anymore.
and who knows the veracity of anything anymore?
the private chopper pilots and the on the ground firemen were the most gutwrenching tweets.
on a normal early early, i’ll have a 1/4 spliff at most with my coffee…but after an hour of all that, i turned it off, turned on Das Vorspiel on a loop and went ahead and imbibed the whole thing.
my cousin does post-storm stuff for a living…altho now he hires out the labor.
from tree cutting, earthmoving to wrecking out all the sodden drywall and such, to rebuilding the house.
he worked Katrina with a chainsaw.
says this is much worse from where he’s sitting.
they’ll be finding bodies for years and years.
he’s hearing $half a trillion bandied about in his circles.
…as if most of those folks had flood insurance….and a lot of the folks interviewed by the pilots and such were obviously hillbilly…(reminded me of my swamp people buddies back in the day)…might not even have birth certificates, etc.
and given bidens foot in mouth disease, this is a birdsnest on the ground for trump and vance(Mr Hillbilly, himself)…if they would only reach down and pick it up.
is trump still rich?
he could pull a Perot and send in a private airforce and megacrew, if he wanted to.
in line with Lambert’s Face, not Heel, thing.
Vid here and very sad indeed.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/helicopter-pilot-flying-helene-rescue-missions-in-nc-ordered-out-threatened-with-arrest/ar-AA1rB1kM
Sorry, but that image would need the viewer to invest in a period of akilteration.
Hundreds have already been found dead and likely several hundred more were swept away in floodwaters. Not hard to imagine they ended up snagged by tree branches stout enough to support the bodies as waters receded. Given the huge impact area, thousands of miles of waterways involved, and very limited search/rescue to date, I’d be shocked if there aren’t any bodies left in trees (image or not.) Here’s a too common story (CNN Oct 2)
I-40 update: Road closed from TN/NC line to Mile Marker 20 in NC till 2028 (4 years.)
Some private helicopter rescues. Not waiting for FEMA. utube. first 15 minutes.
Taking Our Helicopter Into North Carolina’s Disaster
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQAPEBKhMS8
Thanks flora. A lot of roads in the western NC mountains follow creeks and rivers. Plenty of houses and trailers along side the roads were washed away. The video provides a small glimpse of the thousands of miles of such roads and the home remains.
thank you flora. gives a good picture of the nature of the terrain and the damage in the mountains, which for me was hard to visualize having never been there.
it seems that the roads run right along the rivers (b/c where else can you get a road through these mountains i would guess), and homes are lined up along the roads. the video shows how long stretches of these roads have been destroyed by the flooding of narrow rivers in raging torrents. the video makes vividly clear the magnitude of the problem that, it appears, EVERYONE who lives along these rivers and up in those hills is facing now.
saw a thing a few days ago about how weird this was, meteorologically…turning west and inland into mountains apparently happens in southeast asia, etc…but very, very rarely on east coast of north america….the highs and lows, broadly, had to be just in the right place and time to steer it up into those mountains.
mountains act as permanent high pressure ridges, as it were…squeezed air above them.
even the big ass hill out back, here(that we call “the mountain”) has a repeatedly observed effect of breaking up the squall lines from the west that we get, and thus preventing tornadoes and the otherwise worst of it from hitting us, on my place.
so this…steering west into the high country…was a strange anomaly.
Happened in 1916 according to old newspaper reports. Rare occurrence. 100-year thing.
As with any mountain landscape there are roads that switchback up the sides of mtns so it’s not all like that. Hickory Nut Gorge at the much mentioned Chimney Rpck was so narrow there was barely room for a road much less the nearby river feeding Lake Lure. Chimney Rock Park high up on the ridge survives and was the real attraction rather than tourist shops (it used to be that you parked at the base and an elevator took you up to Chimney Rock). I think this is now a state park.
If it’s like here then undoubtedly the road problems are mostly due to fallen trees. I’ve just been reading that the Blue Ridge Parkway is closed indefinitely while they try to fix this.
A lot of roads that run next to rivers and creeks in the NC mountains are carved into the sides of deep, steep ravines. I-40 near the TN border is a good example. It follows the Pigeon River northwest for 20+ miles downstream into Tennessee carved into a mountain on the northeast side of the river. There are rock cliffs next to the road at least 30-60 feet high in several places along that stretch and rock slides that cover the road have been common since it was built. While the road sits much higher than the river, the floods undoubtedly undermined the road and washed it away in many places. NCDOT estimates it will reopen in 2028. It’s clear that many of the secondary and tertiary roads have been similarly washed away. Despite being in the mountains, there are hundreds of roads and you are never very far from a some sort of recreation/tourist/retirement community. The road damage is far worse than downed trees.
Nearly all of the 60,000 miles of public NC roads are maintained by the state. About 14,000 miles are in western NC and about 10K in the NC impact area. I’d guess tens of thousands of culverts support those roads. When one culvert fails, it can take months for NCDOT to reopen the road under the best of circumstances. The culvert failures on I-40 are likely far more widespread in the region.
We didn’t get as much rain as NC did so my grasp of the situation may not be the best. But given the importance of i-40, which I’ve driven many times, I find the length of that 2028 prediction much less the precision to be dubious.
That section of I-40 was narrow, curvy and made for an uncomfortable drive in the frequent rains. Wrecks and rockslides made it unreliable. I avoided it. It’ll need to be either permanently re-routed or re-engineered to handle the weather. Rebuilding what existed before isn’t an intelligent option. The four years NCDOT put on their website is likely a reasonable estimate.
Here on the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada, culvert failures were the leading cause of roads being damaged or wiped out in our 2023 winter full of atmospheric rivers, and we received as much rain in total as that came out of Hurricane Helene, just not all in 1 day!
Sorry. I guess I lied. It DOES look a little lower on the left. Too many rails going every which way I guess. I really liked the fountain and rose but there wasn’t room to get behind it. Maybe a lower angle–looking up. I’ll try that just for fun next time I am there.
,rades,
Ukraine College Los Angeles now fielding team of drones-loitering munitions, as all the cool kids are calling them now.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
“Students and faculty object to UCLA’s purchase of more military hardware” [Los Angeles Public Press]. “The University of California Regents approved the purchase of military equipment at September’s UC Regents meeting at UCLA. The unanimous vote took place behind closed doors while the UCLA Police Department (UCPD), dressed in riot gear, forced those who came to give public comment outside of the building. The approved purchases include 3,000 rounds of pepper munitions, 500 rounds of 40mm impact munitions, 12 drones, and nine less-lethal launchers across six University of California campuses.”
We have gone a long way since the Barney Fife like character loitering around campus in a policeman uniform – that was security in my day.
Lord have mercy.
Wasn’t that when the Sheriff made Deputy Fife carry his (single) bullet for his unloaded .38 revolver in his shirt pocket?
Gotta tell you one of the scariest scenes I ever saw in real life was the San Francisco police arrayed in full line of battle both on foot with the cavalry breaking the protesters lines and scooping up the attempted escapes. This was forty years when open faced police motorcycle helmets, batons and (IIRC) clear riot shields were standard.
What the Black Shirts aka storm troopers are using now is horrifyingly more militarized and dangerous. You could see the police during the 1980s as human beings because you could see their faces and the skinny arms in the regular uniforms. We don’t seem have police anymore, but we do have faceless goon squads. (And no, I am not being hyperbolic or facetious.)
The Andy Griffith Show also had a drunk who checked himself in when necessary, auto mechanics, barbers, school teachers, store owners, and Earnest T Bass. It’s me, it’s me – Earnest T.
What a brilliant and well done show with a great cast. IMO, both Andy and Don were underrated actors. They could play other roles and do it well. Seemed like great people too.
Those were the days…
Referencing this event? Perhaps we crossed paths there.
International Hotel (San Francisco)
I forget the exact details, but I was mostly concerned with various massacres and assassinations during the Central American wars during the 1980s.
Either it was the El Salvadoran Roberto D’Aubuisson or Guatemalan Rios Montt at some conference in San Francisco. They now both remind of Bibi Netanyahu. Same unapologetic murderous unctuousness, which helped me see through Bibi the Butcher’s MO more quickly than otherwise I would.
Different dates, different locations, with the reasons being given as the terrorism, instead of communisms, but the process of the powerful being given weapons, money, and training by the United States to butcher the almost always poor, often unarmed, certainly weaker, has not changed. My, what a wonderful country I live in, a true bastion of freedom and democracy.
Where I taught, the University police were carrying M16s in the trunk of at least one of their patrol cars. I was friends with one them and happened to see it in its cradle in the back of the vehicle.
I remarked on it and he said “ you didn’t see that”.
That was 2010
> less-lethal launchers
Less lethal is certainly re-assuring.
But “,rades” — genius!
Common term used to be non-lethal, but it turned out to be not so accurate.
That is not military hardware but riot control hardware. Those two have very little in common. It’s fascinating how bad ‘mericans are with English language and guns, cosidering that those two are supposed to be their thing.
Yeah. Impact munitions does sound military, but I suspect it refers to stun grenades.
In the old days, however, such things were only used when you called the riot police. Now it’s “campus security” outfitted with them. Who knows who will be the next down the food chain to be so equipped?
Mind you, I’d quite like to stand behind my lectern with a 40mm grenade launcher. “Are you questioning my interpretation of Christopher Marlowe, punk? Do you feel lucky?”
It was discussed a little in Links this morning, but further reading tells me; FEMA is running out of money according to their head guy. He said they don’t have enough to cover more storms that may be coming. I also read where congress might have to go into session to allocate more.
I can only imagine the political hay made over this. Both parties will blame each other, as usual, while people suffer. It makes no sense, and it is infuriating. Get help to those who need, not tomorrow, now. Quit with all the BS and do something for a change.
These people make my blood boil.
Threadreader of the “Gallery” post. Absolutely worth a closer look!
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1841469480213377312.html
Thanks. Really worth a read. “Realism” sufficient to allow a medical diagnosis, that’s really something!
Seconding the thanks since I don’t have a twixter account. I hope there are more to come -Hans Holbein was pretty good at this stuff too.
As a physician, this is quite fascinating.
I did guess temporal arteritis with one look at the temporal regions – there is really nothing else that can do that. And the artist has the gaze of a recently blind person down to the T.
There is one other issue that the writer of this thread hints at but I think is also very important.
In modern times, patients with temporal arteritis will usually present way before the disease gets this bad. Severe temporal headaches and a curious symptom – because of the loss of blood flow patients will have tiredness in the jaw muscles when they chew. They cannot finish a steak, etc. And it begins to burn when they chew. PLEASE DO NOT IGNORE THESE SYMPTOMS IN YOUR ELDERS. High dose steroids will usually take care of things. It is often a long and arduous course. However, over my life I have had 3 patients who did present just like this old man in the painting – already blind. What you need to know also is people who are in this condition are also going to have a severe headache – literally to the pangs of death. But another aspect – they are often vividly hallucinating. All 3 of my patients were seeing all kinds of things, even though they were blind. They were among the most compelling patient encounters of my life. Fascinating that the artist chose his dying man to have a hallucination of religious ectasy. He does not have long for this world – they did not have prednisone in Renaissance Holland.
I have through my life been dumbfounded what our artists are able to tell us – if only we let them.
I had to go read about Jan van Eyck on Wikipedia, since I had not heard of him. Did you know he had a brother named…..wait for it…..Lambert!
What I am curious about, however, is how long did it take him to paint that painting we are looking at? Months I would guess.
There are other painting s too which gives clues to their medical condition and here is one article talking about how they train medical students using these old paintings-
https://www.vice.com/en/article/old-works-of-art-are-helping-med-students-learn-how-to-diagnose/
There was one old painting by one of the masters not mentioned and I cannot recall who but a doctor took one look at the topless woman painted and was able to identify cancer at work I think it was.
Not hard to see anti-Dockworker social media given how their union president chooses to display himself. It bothered me, then half a minute later I thought about all the money those salaries and paychecks are injecting into the surrounding community.
Would people still love Robin Hood if he was always depicted as well-groomed and wearing jewelry? I think they would.
Loved reading about the special military contract that ensures munitions continue to move through the port even as food and medical supplies pile up.
Pay the workers. It’s not like the employers ever completely honor those contracts. They’ll claw some back later and that won’t be in the news.
Full disclosure: former URW 310 member (now USW 310), currently CBD 420 in good standing.
Not amused at all by all the news today claiming how well the dockworkers are already paid. So they make 100K – unless they have a significant other making that much too, they still won’t be able to afford a house in the port city I live in. I don’t make that much but I’d like to. We don’t need these blatant attempts to inflame envy and jealousy.
Instead, Solidarity!
And that 100K requires real, at times dangerous work, no doubt. Those upset on Twitter likely aren’t engaged in such risk taking activities.
Uh, doesn’t that CBD 420 membership require an extensive course in pharmacology first?
(I have heard all sorts of rumours about Politicos and the politico adjacent….)
Honorably withdrawn from Teamsters Local 375.
We had all of our contributions stolen after Central States Pension Fund was put into receivership and Goldman Sucks was appointed administrator. They cleaned the fund out in approximately three years if I remember correctly.
The Teamsters were a great vehicle for getting through undergraduate and graduate school (terminal degree) with minimal amount of debt.
Back when there were real jobs.
Honorably withdrawn member of Teamster Local 375 here.The Teamsters were a great way of putting myself through undergraduate and graduate school (terminal degree MFA/ Photography) with a minimal amount of debt.
Our pension contributions into the Central States Pension Fund were stolen after being put into receivership and administration was awarded to Goldman Sucks. They effectively looted the fund in something like three years if I recall correctly.
Teamsters were a great way to make good money back when there were real jobs in this country.
Another thing — as I understand it there hasn’t been a strike by this union since the late ‘70s. How about a little coverage about the fact that management must really be screwing up in bargaining to precipitate this situation now!
I have added orts and scraps; lots and lots of election coverage!
RE: 11 Damning Details
Maybe they are “damning” if you’re a Trump-deranged Politico writer but they come off as bluster to me, which last I checked is not illegal.
Like millions of other people, I’m pretty sick of having my intelligence insulted on a daily basis by these morons. Jack Smith is dumber than a bag full of Alvin Braggs. DoJ is in need of department wide brain transplants. Oh, there is no non-fatal brain transplant procedure you say….
Judge Napolitano says the refigured election interference prosecution is “devastating” to Trump. He articulates that the immunity judgement was divided into 3 categories: core (specific to the constitution and absolutely immune), official (presumed to be immune) and personal (not immune). The last, personal i.e. no immunity from prosecution, is where Trump is in big trouble. The discussion starts at around the 1:05 time stamp:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YU7bXyAsLYw
Thanks for the link. No lawyer here, but even if you grant that he was acting personally and is not immune from prosecution, you still have to prove what happened was a crime. I don’t think Trump made any coherent case for a stolen election and a riot erupted on the 6th. It’s not a crime to make a poor case and I believe it will be hard to prove Trump instigated a riot when he is on the record asking people to protest peacefully. I’m still very unclear by what mechanism any of the events of the 6th would have kept Trump in office. I also think a case can be made that what he did falls in the 2nd category.
Clinton ran using “alternate” electors up the flagpole in 2016 and it’s pretty easy to find a video compilation of any number of Democrats declaring Trump’s election was illegitimate. And of course the whole Russiagate scheme, which involved turning the government against a political opponent on false pretenses. Even if Trump gets convicted, I think a very large percentage of the public is going to wonder why none of these things were crimes when Democrats did them. I’ve seen the arguments about “alternate” electors somehow being different than Trump’s “fake” electors, but if there really is a difference, it isn’t glaringly obvious what it is.
Faith in so many US institutions is at a very low point. If the Democrat party wants to see the country self destruct, convicting Trump on this stuff would definitely get the ball rolling even faster than it already is.
I absolutely believe that the riot part of the protest was deliberately instigated not by Trump but by agents in the crowd. And once again it was a riot NOT an insurrection. Insurrectionists come much better armed. Despite the hyperbole only one person died at the Capitol on January 6th, one of the protesters. And there is certainly circumstantial evidence that there was collusion between most of the agencies charged with policing and protecting DC to leave the Capitol exposed. Well except for the commander of the Capitol Police. He was left out of the loop, especially of the warnings about the groups volatility. But the Pelosi hand selected replacement for him was included, possibly part of the reason why she held the position so briefly.
And I don’t know if I would have gotten to this a decade ago. My political conspiracies were LIHOP and donor service actions. Politics has always been bare knuckles, but the last few years it was brass knuckles not bare ones (with Avery big whiff of spoiled rotten toddler passion).
Oh they were insurrectionists, OK. It’s just that every single one of them forgot to bring their guns. :)
Hey, a new term – Ghandi Insurrectionists.
I think the actual, provable, crimes that can be connected to Trump isn’t the riot january 6 but the fake (or alternative) electors scheme. States usually has laws against setting aside election results and a number of process crimes seems to have been comitted.
If anything the january 6 riot derailed the attempt to switch out the electors. Then again democrats efforts focusing on january 6 appears to have delayed prosecutions in the fake electors scheme until 2023, which with a competent defense has meant that no trials will take place before the election. And the prosecutions being driven by politics appears to have precluded a competent approach.
One could speculate why no charges were brought in 2021, when the case was fresh and there was plenty of time until the next election. One possibility is that they didn’t think they had a case, another possibility is that they didn’t want to create the precedent by prosecuting a president, considering how crimes like torture and assassiniations are standard. I am leaning towards the latter explanation.
There were myriad election irregularities in 2020. The secret to stealing an election is to do your stealing where you control the first layer of judges a legal protest will encounter.
I have read that none of the Trump challenges were dismissed on substance, that all were dismissed on procedural grounds. If true, that means none of Trump’s challenges were actually investigated.
I have watched the security cam footage from Fulton County, Georgia. It is clear to my eyes that I am watching an election worker launder fake ballots through a tabulating machine. No other office function would look anything like what she is doing in the clip. I didn’t feel sorry for Trump at the time, but I sure feel sorry for me and the rest of the country now that I see what happened.
The level of craft involved in the 2020 steal is absolutely a tell. If you can steal an election with everyone watching, you can easily have a secret agenda while governing. Georgia 2020 was a crime scene.
Disclaimer: I have not been a Republican since growing up in a conservative, heavily churched farm community. I am a past officer of the Des Moines Democratic Party (PCDCC), a past union steward at the (then) world’s largest tire factory, arrested for protesting S. African Apartheid, began blogging leftist content in the late ’90s and in this century have worked on Democratic primary campaigns at the US Senate and House levels. As a socialist who has worked in the Democrat party, I would rather take over the GOP than try to work with Democrats again. I can deal with nuts but liars are impossible and almost always stab you in the back.
The whole purpose of the prosecution was to prevent Trump from being elected so if Trump wins or loses next month it becomes moot now. Only the smear remains.
Which is to say it’s only “devastating” if the court involves a kangaroo (quite possible in DC).
In my opinion what Trump was really doing was messing with the Dems the same way they messed with him in 2016 after the election. If it was an attempted coup then where were the tanks? The coup fantasy is about as believable as the Russiagate fantasy and from the same source.
Agreed.
Getting a bit afar, but there is something amusing on the kangaroo front:
https://www.abebooks.com/first-edition/Wilderness-Orphan-Life-Adventues-Chut-Kangaroo/30613788243/bd
The van Eyck painting.., image and exegesis……terrific!
“I am not certain that $750 will be the entire payment”
I don’t know if $750 is a reasonable amount (probably not) for its intended purpose; if the process to get it, or any other assistance, is bureaucratically convoluted (it always is); if Biden-Harris are “fighting for” more; or if it’s by statute or executive decision, but it’s not the only federal money people or states get in a disaster.
Anyway: Below are links to some stuff they said they were “fighting for;” some rule change proposals that may be part of a “fight;” and what FEMA says has been spent on Maui assistance.
https://www.fema.gov/press-release/20240119/biden-harris-administration-reforms-disaster-assistance-program-help
https://www.regulations.gov/document/FEMA-2023-0005-0001
https://www.fema.gov/fact-sheet/one-year-later-maui-wildfire-recovery-continues-nearly-3-billion-federal-support
I agree that directionally the criticism is correct.
If Turley had a sense of ironic humor, he’d have responded to Goldman cutting him off by saying “Of course. Heil Hitler.” But, I suppose that would be a too dangerous thing to try…..
https://www.ksl.com/article/51147236/1-in-12-utahns-suffers-from-long-covid-health-department-study-says
1 in 12 Utahns suffers from long COVID, health department study says
So incredibly sad and maddening …
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/oct/03/number-of-people-in-uk-out-of-work-due-to-ill-health-growing-by-300000-a-year
Number of people in UK out of work due to ill health growing by 300,000 a year
Data dashes hopes that effects of pandemic would subside and labour market would return to pre-Covid state
Same, but interestingly, nothing in the main article about COVID itself. Delusional.
‘Tis a mystery!
A bank account I’m opening uses Socure verification, where you’re forced to use your phone to photograph your ID and your face. Someday, you won’t be able to escape this. Biometrics everywhere. And we know this stuff always gets hacked. What a disaster, combined with stuff like deepfakes.
And you’ve still decided to open an account there? Are you forced to? Oh my.
When do banks ever get hacked? They’re evidently the one entity in the world that doesn’t. I certainly never hear of it. So they must possess super secret anti-hacking software which no one else is allowed to have.
Or else, they are hacked all the time, and the money stolen is replaced by magically created money.
Which of those two do you find more plausible?
> When do banks ever get hacked?
More often that you think or is revealed. See here: 10 Biggest Data Breaches in Finance (via upguard.com).
Excerpt:
Sometimes, you don’t find out for months, and when the hacks are revealed, they don’t always make headlines.
> Or else, they are hacked all the time, and the money stolen is replaced by magically created money
Banks are not hacked directly for money. They’re hacked for customer information which can be sold or used to extract money from the bank customers via identity theft.
some insanity over that coffee cup
Is it because they had the shape already unused in stock?
Was it because some impostor claims that it tastes better?
Or was it rather because they increase profits with less coffee served per new cup? Which is so cool.
p.s. I wonder if the design discussion was comparable to the one over the invention of elevators as mused over by German philosopher Hans Blumenberg who once suggested it was not skyscrapers that deemed necessary a new way of vertical transport – but the other way around: The invention of elevators prompted the skyscraper design!
So much on the hen-egg issue.
– insanity off –
That coffee cup reminds me of the cardboard containers for snowcones we used to buy at the city park summer concession stand as kids. Definitely a bad design for hot coffee.
How do you hold them when the coffee is hot? They don’t wanna be wet on the outside or else they will slip out of your fingers. I keep on telling them – form follows function and not the other way around.
Right!
It´s the cones!
How stupid of me not to see it.
And of course that makes them totally must-haves…
-“you are burning your hands”
-“But don´t you get it – so coool to get your hand bruised for 10 bucks an espresso.”
-“Hm. You´re right. Lets do it.”
And as RevKev states: they are cool and MAKE NO SENSE!
I continue to see Bloomberg polls of the swings clearly biased to dems. Discarding Bloomberg gives trump an imo significant lean in the southern states az, ga, & Nc, plus a slight lead in pa. If the southerns go red then trump needs either mn (slightly dem) or pa, Nv doesn’t seem likely too small to matter and mi/wi seem clearly going dem.
Beyond that, in the past the swing polls have been more dem-biased than what Bloomberg alone indicates now.
Re October/late September surprises–my brother did finally get his power back but the Duke online outage map shows a couple of hundred thousand still without power in upstate SC. Things in my town are getting back to normal although schools continue closed and the suddenly very popular library is on shorter schedule.
Unclear what political impact of all this and the coming blast radius storm in the ME may prove a lot more significant.
Got my power back yesterday afternoon. Duke tends to overestimate time without power.
Greenville and Spartanburg counties have a lot of people, and thus a lot of outages. Many tend to be in older neighborhoods with older trees, be they low-income or wealthy.
A local senior center is staying closed when they could be open and helping provide power and cooling. My restaurant closed the dining room (on one of the few days we had enough people to open and staff the dining room), when we could have welcomed customers for food, cooling, and power.
Hoping to take my election training class next week.
“Crowd starts clapping after ‘The View’ co-host Sunny Hostin…”
This is intolerable, and would have been a dismissal offense at any other time. I am astounded and distressed at the savagery.
I remember not long ago a quaint time where it was a real dick move to say a word about a candidate’s family members – It was just off limits. And it was these same people like this View woman who would be all over an opposing campaign that did that.
Over my life – I remember all kinds of stories about Amy Carter, the young Reagan son, Chelsea Clinton, the Obama daughters, the Bush daughters. All of which were instantly shot down by the media as barbarous – when the opposing campaign brought them up.
It was just considered not a good look – unless the family member was constantly injecting themselves into the mix on purpose – like Billy Carter or Hillary Clinton. Or if there was just unbelievable hypocrisy and the candidate or their side was incongruent – I view the Emhoff revelations this week – of Psaki saying he was the perfect specimen of benign masculinity – when he has now stood convincingly accused of slapping his ex, impregnating the nanny and demanding an abortion – and just overall being a real loser behind the scenes. Why is Sonny not talking about that?
This is just disgraceful behavior – and it used to be considered as such. Just another indication that we used to have nice things.
Yes, this type of “reporting” is everywhere. When I read the Guardian, NTY, Wa. Post, etc. there are always articles with titles such as Mike Smith’s new book says Trump……. Or Trump’s uncle says Trump swore when he was only 10 years old. Or It seems Trump may have caused an insurrection.
It’s easy to see through but people don’t. “May”? “Will”? “Been reported”? “Experts Say”? It’s endless and infantile.
‘On the bright side, I can put the $750 against the $600 Biden still owes me, so I come out ahead!’
Not so fast there. That $600 was in 2019 dollars so through inflation and the like, that $600 may very well be the equivalent of that late 2024 $750 in terms of price parity.
According to my CPI Inflation Calculator, $600 in January 2020 is equal to $732.17 this past August, so pretty close.
The Guardian is going full Blue Maga and hinting at the dock strikes being a Trump supporter conspiracy:
Revealed: CEO at heart of US ports strike made crude attacks on Biden and Democrats
[As well as finding a few social media posts critical of B/H, they figured out that the Union is also in on it! /s]
“The timing of the strike, just weeks before the election, also raised questions about the ILA’s relationship with Trump. A photograph of the union’s president, Harold Daggett, meeting Trump in November resurfaced on social media this week.”
#PostWaterCoolerHijinks
The strike is over? Postponed? Major updates coming in over at X.
#Syraqistan
Israel hit a Russian base in Syria?!! 😮 Russia telling its citizens to leave Israel?!! (via X)
#JFC #WWIII
I am wondering if, along the lines of “pour encourager les autres”, Russia is primed to make an example of Israel that would simultaneously serve as a clearer warning to all the proxy-war lapdogs in the EU. Dear ${DEITY}, how the familyblog did it come to this??!! Rhetorical question, of course … we all damn well know.
I was fully expecting that UK would be that chicken (following the Chinese proverb about beheading the chicken to keep monkeys in line or something), but Israel would do just as well, I suppose. This would be a pretty shocking development if things do come to pass–given the pretty good history until recently between Israel and Russia (and specifically between Putin and Netanyahu in particuar)–although things had gone downhill real fast last couple of years….
But that’s a lot of speculation, though, with limited solid info….
Russia attacking Israel or UK would be a fast track to nuclear war, no?
Putin’s hands seem somewhat tied in that it seems his opponents are willing to have that nuclear war. In other words they are insane.
Perhaps attacks on assets, a kinda firm tit-for-tat is possible. I cannot see Russia taking genuinely escalatory steps though.
I can see attack on Israel leading to a nuclear war–Israeli leadership being crazy and insecure and all. I always thought UK wouldn’t dare (or even be incapable of) hitting back if a set of sharp Russian conventional attacks devastated key UK sites likely involved in Ukraine: eg RAF Waddenfield. If Iranian attacks did as much damage as they claim, that would be somewhat analogous to what I expect a Russian conventional attack on UK might be like (highly doubtful the damage is that heavy, I think–the attack was not that heavy, did not come in multiple waves, amd Israelis are much better prepared, etc)…
Reading through the tweets:
1) I can’t see any source I trust
2) The story seems to be changing from “Israel hit a Russian base” to “Israel hit an arms depot”
3) Seemingly legit: Russia instructs it’s citizens to leave Israel
I’ll wait for more reporting on this.
Concur. Nothing on RT/Tass/Pravda … yet
It would fit with Alexander Mercouris’s latest in which he strongly speculates that Russia must have provided data to the Iranians for the recent missile attacks. It’s the first topic he discusses in the video (which was released before the attack on Russian assets in Syria story arose).
In his words “the shadow of Russia has descended” on the conflict
Thanks for the link!
““The International Longshoremen’s Association and the United States Maritime Alliance, Ltd. have reached a tentative agreement on wages and have agreed to extend the Master Contract until January 15, 2025 to return to the bargaining table to negotiate all other outstanding issues,” The International Longshoremen’s Association and the United States Maritime Alliance said in a joint statement.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/03/port-strike-ends-as-workers-agree-to-tentative-deal-on-wages-and-contract-extension.html
#TYVM
New York Magazine, being wholly owned and operated regime media, assiduously avoids the salient point: Physical access to voting for western North Carolinians. Those people don’t even have roads, and NYM is pretending that they are going to vote. And they pretend that the issue is how perception of the government’s disaster response will affect that vote. Being wholly owned and operated regime media, it is their mission to obfuscate this.
A week ago we didn’t have roads. Now we do. The trees just got shoved to the side.
Of course if the entire town got wiped out then there won’t be anybody to vote one way or another. But undoubtedly many in more remote locations were already absentee ballots. If I were Biden I’d worry that the storm victims may get so hopping mad they insist on voting.
a hurricane is a boost component and 32 days provides clearing time
https://www.fshuo.tech/publication/2017iet/2017IET.pdf
the traffic jam probably clears imo
in real life say i’m blasting through an uncontrolled intersection in ballard wa. on my bike, every
car increases risk exponentially from no cars…grumpy can explain this better
for me, incentive for caution increases so more attention rather than less, i.e. if you might have voted before, you’ll definitely vote after…
YMMV
Biden quotes:
Some more comments from Joe Biden, courtesy of the White House press pool.
Asked why he had not spoken to Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu in recent days after he said he would on Sunday he replied:
“Because there’s no action going on right now.”
Asked if he worried an Israeli strike on Iran’s oil facilities would raise oil prices, he said;
“If a hurricane hits, prices are going to go up. I don’t know; who knows.”
(via Guardian blog)
These are a follow-up to this mumbling answer earlier
He looks rough as well.
In a republic, the public interest must be paramount. Given the blatant corruption and politicization of the Supreme Court in its recent rulings, it is definitely in the public interest to have as many facts as possible made known regarding Trump’s role in trying to stop the certification of the 2020 election results.
If the facts contained in Special Prosecutor Smith’s filing showed that Trump was not acting illegally, then Trump should welcome those facts being made known to the public. That is not Trump’s position. He knows what the facts are, and that as more facts become known, they will make him and his actions ever more odious to most of the public.
If you were in the DoJ bureaucracy and in possession of these damning facts, you would be acting entirely in the spirit of your oath of office to find some way, any way, to lay these facts before the public before the election for the highest public office in the land.
“Make them riot.”
The shame of history shall stain the name of all defenders and apologists of Trump.
Not that the war mongering Democrats are wonderful. Every passing day I am ever more convinced that Trump’s con is a useful ruse by TPTB to prevent any decent public discourse of far more important issues.
Uh oh. Went over to MOA and a placeholder page came up about domains for sale. Too much anti Israeli content? Who knows.
moonofalabama.org seems just fine for me …
All good for me right now at 1:53pm Oz time.