Footprints in Kenya ‘show distant relatives of modern humans coexisted’ Guardian (Kevin W)
The Mayflower passengers who arrived in Plymouth November 11, 1620
vs.
The Mayflower passengers who survived to Thanksgiving 1621, less than one year later. pic.twitter.com/wxc5y3nkll— The Redheaded libertarian (@TRHLofficial) November 28, 2024
#COVID-19
Friend visited cardiologist and told me they found mild atrial irregularity years after one covid infection (no vax).
"Don't worry, doc says it's fine because he sees it in almost everyone nowadays."
So, ugh…organ damage is now normal because everyone has it??
— Zagreus | Escaping Long Covid Hell (@zagreusrevival) November 28, 2024
Climate/Environment
BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street sued by Republican states over climate push Reuters (Micael T)
A strange new climate era is beginning to take hold Washington Post
Unexplained heat-wave ‘hotspots’ are popping up across the globe EurekAlert
Polar ice sheets decisive contributors to uncertainty in climate tipping points British Antarctic Society
If it seems like the Northern Hemisphere pattern has been volatile this month, you're not wrong.
Based on 45-90°N daily variability of 500mb heights, November so far has been the most volatile since 1985. Centers of action have been over SW Alaska, Baffin Island, and N Europe. pic.twitter.com/EFlc0g0ZXW
— World Climate Service (@WorldClimateSvc) November 27, 2024
Scientists trying to figure out why the last two years have been so hot Weather Network
China?
This is genuinely hilarious, when reality hits…
Milei in September 2023 (https://t.co/uwD2dbjnP8): "Not only will I not do business with China, I won’t do business with any communists."
Milei in The Economist today (https://t.co/Yk10RtAbT4): "Relations with China are… pic.twitter.com/BGe8vev6uq
— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) November 29, 2024
E.U. Vessels Surround Anchored Chinese Ship After Cables Are Severed in Baltic Sea New York Times (Kevin W). How is this detention not an illegal seizure, aka piracy, or at least illegal interference? From the article” “But U.S. intelligence officials have assessed that the cables were not cut deliberately”
India
Numb in India, part 7: Land of gloop Sam Kriss. Trust me, worth a read.
South of the Border
Bolsonaro allies nearly launched military coup in 2022, police report says Guardian (Kevin W)
European Disunion
Bloomberg: Europe set for coldest winter, posing energy risk International Affairs (Micael T)
Hope lies with Ursula Aftonbladet via machine translation. Micael T: “Media employees moonlighting as Monty Python.”
Well, then let’s talk about military capability Nachdenkseitsen via machine translation (Micael T)
Why is the Green Party using activist front groups to subvert the law and allow refugees to convert government benefits into untraceable cash? eugyppius (Micael T)
Romania orders election recount after TikTok bias claims BBC. Kevin W: “Apparently the Romanian main stream media ghosted this guy during the elections. Hey, can the US order an election recount after a Twitter bias claim?”
Old Blighty
British Parliament votes on euthanasia Aftonbladet via machine translation. Micael T: “‘Prime Minister Keir Starmer has previously spoken out as a proponent, but ahead of Friday’s vote, he chooses to keep quiet about how he will act.’ So he wants to kill you.”
You won't hear it on the news but CCTV cameras in London have been off for the last 24 hours.
Strange eh? pic.twitter.com/bqRtmxoSUg
— JeniusConcept (@ConceptJenius) November 27, 2024
Are they planning a false flag event in London? Alex Krainer (Micael T)
Israel v. The Resistance
Israel’s Genocide Day 419: UNRWA warns conditions for survival are ‘diminishing’ for Palestinians in north Gaza Mondoweiss (guurst)
Gaza facing most intense bombings since WWII: UN agency Anadolu Agency
Ceasefire Falters as Israel Launches Airstrikes, Artillery Shelling on Southern Lebanon Antiwar.com (Kevin W)
If The Gaza Ceasefire Holds, Israel Has Won Ian Welsh (Micael T. Note Israelis think over 2:1 otherwise, per below.
‘Why is Hezbollah celebrating?’ Israelis unconvinced by ceasefire agreement Middle East Eye
Prof. Mohammad Marandi: IDF Defeated by Hezbollah Hands Down – Tensions in Syria Growing Dialogue Works
Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire shows Iran a paper tiger Asia Times. Major difference with Marandi above. Marandi before had stressed that Iran had had to hold its fire while Gaza ceasefire talks were on so as not to be charged with being a spoiler. The US has played up the idea that Gaza ceasefire talks are again on after the Lebanon ceasefire. So those may need to die out before Iran strikes again. Marandi, who was correct and in a minority before re Iran’s actions, maintains that Iran will hit again and hit much harder than before.
Israel’s Trump Delusion Foreign Affairs
New Not-So-Cold War
Speech at a restricted attendance meeting of the CSTO Collective Security Council President of Russia
Ukrainian defenders hit oil depot in Russia’s Rostov Oblast and destroy radar for Buk air defence system – Ukraine’s General Staff Ukrainska Pravda
Lindsey Graham: Ukraine War all ‘about money’ International Affairs (Micael T)
* * * Russian Ruble Collapses As Putin’s Economy in Trouble Newsweek (Micael T). Russia is close to an autarky these days, and it banks are not exposed, so this is less consequential than it might seem. If I had to guess, the Russian very high inflation plays a big role, particularly if interest rates are deemed to be too low in light of that. But it may just as well have to do with technical matters, like Russia (generally? always?) requiring FX trades to be crossed on the Moscow Stock Exchange. While this greatly increases the value of Russia’s energy exports in home country terms and should boost inbound tourism, Russians who normally travel to warmer countries for vacations will likely shelve those plans for now. Historically a low rouble has been seen, like depressed stock prices, as a sign within Russia of weakness. I don’t know if that is as true now as it was historically.
A more granular take:
What is happening with the ruble?
The ruble has experienced the most significant rate of devaluation since August 2023. Compared to the dollar, it has reached lows not seen since mid-March 2022. It's currently trading at 108.1 rubles per USD.
One major factor contributing to…
— Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) November 27, 2024
Who benefits from a weak ruble? Vzglyad via machine translation (Micael T)
* * * Atlanticists mobilise to salvage NATO as Russia toughens its stance Indian Punchline (Kevin W)
Cyprus could become a member of NATO when conditions permit, the country’s president says Associated Press (Kevin W)
* * * Ultimate Irony Comes as Taliban Asks Russia’s Help To Evade US Sanctions, Closing 50-year Loop of Violence Antiwar.com (Kevin W)
Trump 2.0
Mexican president claims ‘no potential tariff war’ with US after call with Trump Guardian (Kevin W)
“Reimagining” the Resistance: Lawfare Warriors Express Regret But Not Remorse After Election Jonathan Turley
2024 Post Mortem
An Outside View of the US 2024 Presidential Election MR Online (Anthony L)
Federal Judge Pushes for Receiver Takeover of Rikers Island The City
Abortion
Trump Doesn’t Need Congress To Make Abortion Effectively Unavailable KFF Health News
Our No Longer Free Press
Trump-Zuckerberg’s Mar-a-Lago Chatter Suggests Imminent Changes in Meta* – Whistleblower Sputnik
AI
‘AI Ambition is Pushing Copper To Its Breaking Point’ The Register
Class Warfare
The dream wedding has gone to debt collection Märtha ran away from the bill Seher via machine translation (Micael T)
How the left became the enemy of the working classes Thomaz Fazi (Micael T)
Coffee at Highest Price in 47 years Semafor. Price of the excellent Thai coffee I buy has not budged.
Turkey Propaganda Doug Casey (Micael T)
Antidote du jour (via):
And a bonus:
They know exactly what they’re doing 😂 pic.twitter.com/Vqfvnazxp1
— Why you should have a cat (@ShouldHaveCat) November 29, 2024
See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.
‘Arnaud Bertrand
@RnaudBertrand
This is genuinely hilarious, when reality hits…
Milei in September 2023 (https://cepr.net/167657-2/): “Not only will I not do business with China, I won’t do business with any communists.” ‘
Maybe he got a shock after being elected that though he was a staunch supporter of the US & Israel, that did not mean that he would get preferential loans or ones without endless strings attached and preconditions. Maybe they even tried to steer him towards IMF loans or something. The fact that the Chinese are acting just like business people may have saved his bacon and explains why he is so happy with them.
In a similar vein, from the link to Numb in India with this quote, “…it turns out that if you want someone to administer capitalism well, you could do a lot worse than a Communist Party.”
Starmer will vote in favour IMO. Why do I predict that? Our newly elected UK Labour MP was one of the new intake that got immediate promotion to a select committee (thus annoying long-serving MPs). This has confirmed in the minds of everyone round here that he’s a Starmer …. ahem …. loyalist.
He posted his letter to Twitter announcing his support in last day or so. He might have hoped it wouldn’t get noticed, given that he’s one of many Labour MPs suddenly to have new Blue-sky accounts.
So I screenshot his letter and posted it to my mostly quiet Blue-sky account, tagging him. Irony is I’m probably not his least liked member of my family after my mum wrote rude stuff about him on Facebook within weeks of voting for him at the general election. All fun and games in this very marginal constituency!
His track record proves he is all in for the kill
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/starmer-winter-fuel-allowance-pensioners-b2611986.html
When did this phrase “assisted dying” get chosen as the message. Euthanasia just sounds bad, can’t get the dogs to.eat the dog food, but assisted dying? That’s all about the actus reus and not about the mens rea.
That’s not what I would want: I would want a decriminalisation of the assistance of my suicide, with a boring paper-based process involving the court of protection and some sort of independent medical examination that I am compos mentis.
I realise this rules out dementia patients and others who lack capacity but I don’t see how to resolve the dangers in allowing us to choose that others would like to die. A tolerance of the dual effect of opiates in pain relief would be one route, I suppose, provided the person acting on behalf of the incapacitated has explicitly agreed and there was no previously “do not sedate to death” paperwork.
Re Russian economy: Yesterday I had a long phonecall with an excellent Russian journalist whom I have known for a long time. We talked about the prospects of an armistice and he believes that chances are quite good. Trump would give Selensky the necessary cover – “the bastard doesn´t want to deliver weapons anymore” – to call it quits and Putin is under a lot of domestic pressure because of inflation. There are also big problems re spareparts for the railways and other economic troubles.
I’m hoping your journalist friend is correct. I for one would appreciate moving away from the cliff edge.
I propose that no one but NATO should want this result at this stage–least of all Russia.
If the conflict freezes prior to the collapse of Ukraine’s military, I’ll bet we will be at war again–and worse–within a few years.
Consider how emboldened the Ukrainian regime was by Putin’s restraint and miscalculations in 2022.
On net NATO has not yet been chastened, but rather emboldened up to now. That is a recipe for more red-line pushing and more war.
Yes.
Does one want a “chastened” NATO either? For whom egos could well be strategic assets? Rump Ukraine > Occupied Rump Ukraine. Who cares how they decorate? If they get testy, Russia just goes Grozny and rewilds Galicia. The next generation of Russian soldiers could use a boogeyman that isn’t actually dropping bombs on them at bedtime, also cold war economy go brrrrtttt.
Too optimistic?- The Europeans will try to torpedo any kind of agreement. What if they decide to admit Ukraine in the EU (I am not sure this is possible) that is now seen in Russia as NATO proxy?
Yea, right. MInsk 3 here we come. All because of that damned inflation, and spareparts for the railways. Economic troubles are so bad that Russians are considering selling the Crimean Bridge.
Did…did you just say that if people are convinced that the west is winning in the Ukraine, that the Russians have a bridge to sell us?
In typical Yankee Trader style, we will then try to purchase said bridge with gold painted BRICS.
Wuk? Is that you?
Punsters are proliferating on this site.
Sorry, I am but a humble shadow of the refulgent Wukchumni.
along with swampland in Florida –
Is your contact associated wit the late J Barkley Rosser’s “contacts”?
There are the similar voices saying “you did not do enough” on both sides.
For the NATO side it is “not enough [effete, V-1 like] super weapons, soon enough, in numbers enough!
For the Russian side: “you did not stay the course”.
“Staying the course” is less insane than more V-1’s.
That is sort of surprising to hear since Russian railways have their own gauge and own couplings, which means they’ve always been sort of closed market for the rolling stock.
Soviet Union/Russia always (had to) build their own diesel and electric engines, so not much of replacing imports to do, really. And given the strategic significance of the railroads to the military logistics, one would be aghast to find out it has been neglected.
Even more surprising is lack of problems with parts for Boeings.
Please
“Snowless Finns suffer ‘eco-grief”
‘Snow has special meaning for many Finns, often connected to cherished memories, but a lack of snow can cause a sense of loss that researchers refer to as eco-grief.’
It’s those damn Russians. Finland joins NATO. Then suddenly their snow starts going away. Coincidence? I think not!
Does the Baltic Sea still freeze in winter, allowing one to wander for kilometers on the ice?
Most of it does, but not to the extent it did in the 1950’s. I’m happy my kids have had the experience, but I’m not sure their kids will know the feeling…
Damn, those pesky Russians are behind everything.
This quote from Anne Karhu-Angeli caught my eye, Snow brings light with it. It’s no longer dark and horrible. You can feel it in your body and your mind,” she says. I have a friend in Alaska who every winter spends two weeks in Oaxaca to beat the endless nights. He has mentioned that this is a thing for those who can manage it, and that the extended winter nights literally drive people crazy.
Same thing in all Nordic countries. During winter holidays, those who can fly away to places with a 100% sun-guarantee.
Frankly, most of us endure the short period of dark, wet and cold before the permasnow falls and it’s winter wonderland everywhere.
Only the weak leaves. For any military purpose they should be filtered away. The real men, wearing pants, stick around and laugh at the darkness while waiting for the snow.
Photoperiod is linked to depression to which even real men in pants are susceptible.
When the going gets tough, the tough gets going, laughing maniacally through the depression and snow until sometime in May.
Lol, my version includes whiskey and maybe a re-read of Blood Meridian.
My wife is very susceptible to Seasonal Affective Disorder while I hardly notice it at all. Mind you I haven’t ever lived north of Quebec City.
Nothing weak about taking Vitamin D supplements…you don’t even have to wear pants!
Yep. Remember when the Chilean trapped miners were supplied with water, food, and vitamin D, specifically, while waiting for their eventual rescue? There was a reason for that. / ;)
https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna39000893
Nordic diet, oddly enough, is full of salmon, milk and eggs. Have lived here decades, never taken Vitamin D supplements. Also helps to have a fair skin tone.
I am male and have lived on the coast of Alaska most of my adult life. Dont always wear pants. Winter is when i head into the woodshop crank the heat and the tunes crack a beer and start creating something. Spring comes all too soon it seems. When the sun does come out you go for a walk. Sometimes end up with the geezers at local watering hole. Good ideas start there sometimes. I know i live a blessed life. Being a member of AFDU (Alaska functional drunkards union local chapter 86). You cant drink all day if you dont start in the morning. Cheers.
I once saw a funny text describing how to determine the temperature without resorting to a graded thermometer.
Everything was based on what people from various countries (supposedly) do when the weather becomes colder and colder. Clues such as “Finns finally close the windows before going to sleep”, or “Even your Volvo helps you plan the trip to Tunisia” and the like.
The real men, wearing pants, leaping from tree to tree as they float down the mighty rivers of British Columbia …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfRdur8GLBM&t=6s
I lived in Seattle for 35 years. I got around the dark and wet by going on bike rides in the wet and cold. It took a couple of years to figure out how dress correctly and bring multiple pairs of gloves and an extra base layer to change into. Having company to share in the fun misery also helps. For the record there was sometimes alcohol involved and herb. Before you knew it the days get a bit longer and there is light at the end of the tunnel. If possible, and many do, a get away to the SW or warmer parts are a nice option. Now that I have been south for 5 years, I am not sure if I miss it. I do miss the biking crew. Shout out to the PNW riders.
Useful Idiots on RU just posted:
Ukraine vs. Russia: Nuclear War, Frozen Conflict, or Peace? Debate w/ Simon Shuster
Senior Correspondent at TIME Magazine Simon Shuster on newly increased aggression in the Ukraine-Russian War
p.s. since I only started – Shuster as expected so far, is – well – in military terms not speaking about Ukraine but some other conflict on Venus or Pluto may be. But not this one.
https://www.usefulidiotspodcast.com/p/ukraine-vs-russia-nuclear-war-frozen
I wonder what others have to say to this.
Because the deep-seated prejudice of Shuster is very unsettling to witness.
The disagreement with Maté starts TC 20:00.
99% of what Shuster says is State Department ideology the kind of which doves share. Which is probably worse than nutty people who want to to bomb Russia but would never dare to carry that out.
Shuster is undermining serious understanding and makes scrutiny of US responsibility virtually impossible in the future.
One point where Maté agrees much too easily is Shuster´s allegation that Putin – of course – was lying around 2015 when neglecting RU troops in Donbas.
Jacques Baud has showed that there were no covert RU supportive military operations.
What is an undeniable indication that something is fundamentally wrong here – never would Shuster in this context say that e.g. Biden oder Austen or Blinken lied.
Putin? YESSSS!
WH? neva.
p.s.When Shuster says “the genocidal regime” early on it´s hard to wonder why the interview is happening at all.
What is the surplus value here?
Of course their bulk audience is not just NC-commentariat.
But it´s disconcerting. With this kind of mindset I see no way out of this for the next 50 years.
This is a closed “cold case.”
This is really distressing.
Re 2015, the media was braying with one voice that Russia was sending troops and materiel to Donbass. Baud finding for the UN that there were no Russian small arms sent would seen pretty dispositive, since that would be the easiest to provide.
The theory I once had, but it does not fit Baud’s facts, is that Russia might have provided deniable support, by allowing Russian soldiers to go what would otherwise be AWOL for some set time to help relatives in Donbass.
There’s the evidence of the contemporary Donbass militias that they felt left alone by Russia, and the rather recent personal apology by V.V. Putin for leaving the Donbass alone supporting the narrative that Russia indeed did not provide more than diplomatic support for the militias and population that, shall we say, defended the Ukrainian constitution.
That said, Russia is Russia, and as far as autocrats go, Putin has no control over what people do. So if they decide to volunteer for Donbass militias, they will. Oddly enough, there seems to be not so small anti-authoritarian inside every Russian.
Shuster is crawling into the rabbit hole with every passing minute of that interview. He is insane.
It is getting worse when Halper asks him about WWIII.
TC 53:00.
Baud revisits the 2015 issue with Eva Bartlett here (I already posted this back then):
JACQUES BAUD: NATO THREATENED RUSSIA DECADES BEFORE 2022
27/10/2024
https://rumble.com/v5fjhrh-jacques-baud-nato-threatened-russia-decades-before-2022.html
When I listened to it then I made following notes (I have no time now to re-check, sorry):
TC – 21:00 Crimea NO green men
TC – 33:00 no human rights for minorities
TC – 42:00 UKR said officially 2015 no RU Army in Donbas
TC – 49:00 Z´s decree 24/3/2021 to conquer South and the Donbas and that led to SMO
TC – 51:00 never separatism only autonomy
I take a wild guess: Not a word of this in Shuster´s book.
p.s. Baud is very difficult to contact as I understand.
And just because it fits:
“Boris Johnson: ‘Mate, let’s face it… We’re waging a proxy war”
https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1862320989432160459
Bertrand:
“Wow, this has got to be one of the most ‘saying the quiet part out loud’ statements since the start of the Ukraine war.”
But yeah, it´s about Ukrainian agency against a genocidal regime.
When did Shuster last look up the definition of genocide.
Fortunately Maté didn´t ask him about Gaza. Then I would have probably smashed my computer against the wall – for lack of better – fucking – agency…
Nima and Orlov. Pretty straight forward.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=neBQhqveeXg&t=9s
Time magazine was founded by Henry Luce in 1923. Luce was a big promoter of The American Century idea.
https://classicsofstrategy.com/2015/09/16/the-american-century-luce/
The Time’s reportage apples haven’t fallen far from the founder’s tree, so to say. / ;)
I think the US ‘deep state’ or establishment realized after this year’s US prez election that podcasts and alt media are important news outlets for a huge number of people. It’s not enough to dismiss the non-MSM as ridiculous and unimportant anymore. (The MSM made themselves ridiculous in the eyes of many over the past few years.) I expect to see more push into the alt outlets by ye olde deep state/establishment actors going forward. It’s an ironic idea that the establishment figures might try to regain credibility by going on alt media and podcasts, not necessarily to tell the truth. / ;)
good point!
Henry’s wife was Clair Booth Luce, famous in her day as a writer and ardent anti-communist, anti-USSR.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clare_Boothe_Luce
Western Europe and the US opinion of Russia hasn’t changed in 200 years. The form of govt didn’t really matter. Tzarist, Soviet, non-communist, that didn’t really matter to the West, imo. It was and is something else that matters.
That something is the fact that Western mineral resources somehow got buried in Russia’s ditch.
They are still missing talk radio, which is HUUGE in some parts of the country.
Remember the debacle of Air America?
See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_America_(radio_network)
(I know it’s ‘wiki’ but, well then….)
It’s all about that elusive “Big Tent” show. The Democrat/PMC Party has become based on a niche demographic. Love him or hate him, Trump has tapped into a real goldmine of “populist” angst.
As Lambert says, without supplying concrete material benefits to the People as a group, not just a donor niche, the Party loses its original reason for existing.
Maybe I am dating myself, but I have never listened to a podcast. I enjoyed Joe Rogan on News Radio. And, the last video game I played was Pong. I do listen to talk radio, but it’s so hard to wade through the BS.
Henry Luce was the son of American missionaries to China, born in China, and returned to America in his teens. He passionately hated the Communists, and Time magazine was a huge supporter of the Vietnam war. Henry used to spike stories from his reporters in Vietnam and print handouts from the Pentagon instead. In spite of his efforts, some news from Vietnam managed to get through, but not much. After his death from a heart attack in 1968, his wife, Clare Boothe Luce, took over as publisher of his stable of magazines, and continued his anti-communist policies.
Well , an entire mass media once promoted a “counterculture” by way of spawn of the military-industrial complex.
‘Why you should have a cat
@ShouldHaveCat
They know exactly what they’re doing 😂’
My god. I had forgotten that about cats. Sometimes having a cat in your home is like having an unsupervised toddler running around and not noticing them.
Rev Kev Indeed! I have seen this same thing as in video! They always seem to have thought out whatever they are doing. Mine will very specifically open a certain drawer or cabinet, even a closet and go after a certain object. I have chastised myself for thinking that they are this smart. They are! I never had cats before these two and I’ve missed out on a whole world of amazing acts.
I will have cats in my life forever now. Can’t believe I ever lived without them!
The picture was most probably generated. Even the HTTP link looks like a prompt: “a-butterfly-with-orange-and-black-wings-on-a-beige-background”.
Looks like a photo of a gift shop trinket.
If you follow the “via” link, it states quite clearly that it is a 3d render, i.e. a drawing done on a computer.
A new Kingdom of “creature,” the AInimalia.
‘The Redheaded libertarian
@TRHLofficial
The Mayflower passengers who arrived in Plymouth November 11, 1620
vs. The Mayflower passengers who survived to Thanksgiving 1621, less than one year later.’
Looking at the survivors for patterns, I can see a few. Larger families had a better chance of surviving than individuals. Women were heavily hit. And I notice more than a few children/teenagers as well surviving. Of course that is all only first impressions and would need a statistical analysis to see what the real story was.
Some food for thought…
https://blackagendareport.com/end-american-thanksgivings-cause-universal-rejoicing-1
“The Thanksgiving story is an absolution of the Pilgrims, whose brutal quest for absolute power in the New World is made to seem both religiously motivated and eminently human. Most importantly, the Pilgrims are depicted as victims – of harsh weather and their own naïve yet wholesome visions of a new beginning. In light of this carefully nurtured fable, whatever happened to the Indians, from Plymouth to California and beyond, in the aftermath of the 1621 dinner must be considered a mistake, the result of misunderstandings – at worst, a series of lamentable tragedies. The story provides the essential first frame of the American saga. It is unalloyed racist propaganda, a tale that endures because it served the purposes of a succession of the Pilgrims’ political heirs, in much the same way that Nazi-enhanced mythology of a glorious Aryan/German past advanced another murderous, expansionist mission.”
thank you, best thing Glen Ford ever wrote, and he wrote many powerful essays.
You also had basically 4 groups: the Puritans, who called themselves the Saints, (everyone else was a sinner), their indentured servants, a few stragglers crazy and well heeled enough to pay their own passage (as in why did they need to really hot-tail it out of England; dunno if any had indentured servants too) and the crew.
Of my at least 7 (verified by church birth and death records and/or gravestones) and as many as 11 ancestors on the Mayflower (out of 110 survivors), all were sinners.
Not sure about this “saint/sinner” dichotomy. AFAIK, Pilgrim theology was pretty much orthodox Reformed, with double pre-destination meaning that there was the concept of the Elect of God. But I don’t think it was ever a belief that the Elect were/are free from sin, except in the sense of Baptism and original sin. For example the Westminster Confession Chapt 11:
“4. God did, from all eternity, decree to justify all the elect, and Christ did, in the fullness of time, die for their sins, and rise again for their justification: nevertheless, they are not justified, until the Holy Spirit doth, in due time, actually apply Christ unto them.
5. God doth continue to forgive the sins of those that are justified; and, although they can never fall from the state of justification, yet they may, by their sins, fall under God’s fatherly displeasure, and not have the light of his countenance restored unto them, until they humble themselves, confess their sins, beg pardon, and renew their faith and repentance.”
What is missing from the discussion is the politics. Bear in mind that the King of England was the head of the Church of England (CoE) and any attempt to create a church based on your own religious ideas was not only dangerous but viewed as contempt for the monarchy and could easily land you in jail or worse. Thus, for example, Roman Catholics were automatically targeted because they looked to the Pope for religious guidance rather than the king who at the time of the Mayflower was King James I.
Two groups, the Puritans and Separatists, were prominent. The Puritans wanted reform but they remained within the CoE, as well as England. The Separatists wanted freedom from the CoE, hence the name Separatists, because they saw no reason the king should be involved in religious matters.
Facing arrest and persecution, the Separatists first emigrated to Holland where they lived for 12-years. When conditions in Holland became dangerous they succeeded in obtaining a contract from London for a settlement in the new world. The Separatists who left Holland and boarded the Mayflower became known as Pilgrims to distinguish them from the Separatists that remained in Europe.
By 1620, Jamestown was a settlement but the Pilgrims wanted their own colony to distance themselves from the king in order to not be persecuted in the new world as they were in England. I think their rebellion against the King of England is worth remembering.
Aftonbladet tells us that assisted dying is on the docket in England and its captive nation, Wales.
The headline is: “British Parliament votes on euthanasia”
Two thoughts:
— For whom? And will there be less parading around by the members in silly costumes with props like maces?
— Will anyone notice if the brain-dead English elite is euthanized?
I think that we all know that assistance in dying has gone on since time immemorial. Pneumonia is called the old-man’s friend. There is a debate in Italy as to exactly what women in Sardinia who took on the roles of an abbacadora did in easing death. The irony here is that people now want to schedule their deaths.
PS: Of course, zombies exist in the U.S. of A., too. Steny Hoyer, at the age of 172, was just returned to the Congress. I don’t subscribe to the idea that the voters are stupid, but I sure would like to know what kind of stun drugs are in the moo juice in southern Maryland.
Tsk. It will never be the old and powerful who are urged and encouraged to ‘go.’ It will be the inconvenient, the old powerless and costly, the politically problematic who urged (maybe even pushed) to go. Simple look at what is happening in Canada. In the UK, if this passes, watch the push on the disabled or costly old people to ‘go’ as a civic duty to save the NHS. You no doubt think I’m kidding or wildly exaggerating.
Reminds me of the Reichs Ministry of Racial Purity and its campaign to ‘normalize’ suicide and “assisted” suicide. All done in the interests of “The Greater Good.” When I read or hear that, I know that I should get out of there as quickly as possible. No ‘Good’ can come of it.
Aktion-4 does have that neoliberal feel about it. Much of the propaganda over the “life unworthy of life” was over how much it cost the state to care for someone who was disabled. Note, the argument was not that it was unaffordable to care for the disabled, but rather that it was just expensive.
Thank you, JBird4049. As someone raised in the Christian tradition of life, the idea that their are some peoples’ “life unworthy of life” is abhorrent to me on basic principles.
See also the medieval Christian hospitallers (from whence comes the modern hospital idea) of charities care for the ill.
Throw the ill outside the town’s gate to die, or care for them as our fellow humans.
I haven’t seen any evidence of actual oversight in Canada. And if there is any, it is always post mortem…
Israeli scorpion gotta 🦂
https://x.com/RaniaKhalek/status/1862397943195562124
https://thecradle.co/articles-id/27889
That article says that Hezbollah are waiting for the Lebanese army to deploy but the army itself has no illusions what the Israelis are all about. Several times during the past few weeks the Israelis deliberately murdered troops of the Lebanese army with an airstrike for no reason whatsoever. The commander of Lebanon’s Armed Forces has just briefed the government on their plans for deployment but he also refused to go into any detail or say where Lebanese soldiers would have their barracks. And that can only be because he is not willing to show his plans to the Israelis. They are quite capable of bombing a barracks full of Lebanese troops on the grounds that they are not effective enough in disarming Hezbollah forces as a sort of message-
https://thecradle.co/articles/beirut-in-the-dark-about-lebanese-armys-deployment-plan-for-south-lebanon-report
The AP report on Cyprus becoming a member of NATO is like some letter from some fantasy land.
Cyprus is a well-kept mess for the convenience of the bigger states involved. Note the mention of Turkey having 35,000 in the occupied / breakaway north. This is on a small island with a total population of roughly one million.
From WIkipedia: “The Turkish invasion, the ensuing occupation and the declaration of independence by the TRNC have been condemned by United Nations resolutions, which are reaffirmed by the Security Council every year.[126]”
Meanwhile, the final paragraph is a piece of self-defeat: “Cyprus’ Andreas Papandreou air base on its southwestern edge is currently hosting a U.S. Marine contingent and a number of V-22 Osprey tiltrotor military transport and cargo aircraft prepositioned to assist in potential evacuations from nearby Lebanon and elsewhere.”
I’m taken aback that this base is named after socialist politician Andreas Papandreou.
Natch, there is no mention of the U.K. extraterritorial carved-out bases of Akrotiri and Dhekelia.
So Cyprus is just a little Ukraine waiting to happen.
Can’t see the Turks voting to let Cyprus into NATO. If it happened, that Greek part of Cyprus would be quickly overrun with NATO bases for troops and ships and would become a festung in the eastern Mediterranean. And that would mean that all sorts of pressure could be brought to bear on the Turkish part of the island, even though they are in NATO as well, and maybe forcing some sort of deal on them. That is one headache that the Turks do not need.
Re: Turkey Propaganda
Word on the street was that turkey outside Wilmington, NC was $0.29 / lb., so maybe that was the ‘Farm Bureau’ price. Somehow I doubt that was the price at Whole Foods.
My better half bought a turkey the day before Thanksgiving for around that amount per pound, which was a heavily discounted sale price. Normally you see that price the day after, but maybe they hadn’t sold as briskly ahead of time as the store expected. She also just paid $5.00 for a dozen of the cheap eggs. Organic/cage free were quite a bit more.
I showed those stats to my MIL who cooked dinner yesterday. Her dinner for 20 was well over the $116.00 the Farm Bureau estimates.
Ian Welsh is clear and to the point. I have nothing else to add except that he’s spot on.
The resistance will be picked apart one by one.
Not so sure about that. Maybe Welsh hasn’t been keeping up on current events but the Israelis have just had their a**** handed to them by Hezbollah. Remember, Hezbollah has their base in the Lebanese people and if they had let the massacres by the Israelis to continue, would have led to the loss of support of their base which is why the – temporary – truce. Hezbollah has used a fair number of their rockets up but they made to make sure that the really good stuff was kept stored. As it is, the north of Israel remains unstable and people are afraid to move back there which will roil Israeli politics. And five IDF divisions and more have been badly mauled by Hezbollah with thousands of Israeli casualties. If this is an Israeli victory, then it is a Pyrrhic victory.
Maybe Welsh hasn’t been keeping up on current events but the Israelis
The current events indicate that the Syrians are just having their a**** handed back to them by an international force of jihadists amply supplied by Turkey and supported with judicious aerial attacks by Israel, and that the Palestinians are slowly but surely being exterminated without reprieve.
As for Iran, it definitely does not want to be involved in a full-fledged war. The only ones possibly crazy enough to continue engaging in military operations are the Yemenis — but for how long if nobody else does? Their supplies of missiles and drones are not inexhaustible.
Things are therefore not looking good at all for the Near-Eastern enemies of Israel and the USA.
Thus, Israel has a not negligible probability to secure a victory — costly, prohibitively so perhaps, pyrrhic even, but a victory nevertheless.
The interviewer here (Ali Alizadeh) said that there are reports that there are 10,000 Turks fighting for Israel in Gaza. The u of houston professor Fadi Kafeety did not comment on that specifically.
How Yemen Became a Rising Power in West Asia? A Conversation with Fadi Kafeety
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MeIR2TIHljU
has anyone else heard anything about that?
If the ceasefire holds it will be a victory for Israel – That may be true but, anyone, or, group, being successful in genocide and massive human rights violations – that’s not something, in my mind, to be victorious or successful about. Assuredly the dimension of time will prove it short term and disastrous – but hey, why speculate about the future and it’s outcome when the now is the deal.
What risks being utterly disastrous in my mind is a world in which genocide becomes normalised and international law is dead. If Israel and the US axis get away with it, that’s what we’ll get. Harris losing was a small victory but this is the main risk for our future as a species.
Because they have a letter of marque.
A Freedom of Anchoring exercise?
Not a Coastie, but there are various authorities for boarding. See in particular Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts Against the Safety of Maritime Navigation
A lovely read and thanks for the reminder of how good a writer Sam Kriss can be. I used to be a regular reader and somehow he fell out of my regular subscriptions (too many good things out there to keep up with). Not many westerner writers travelling in Asia provide genuinely new insights, but he is one of them.
I’ve never been to Kerala, I just know of it from the lovely patient Keralan nurses who cared for my parents in years past. It has long been recognised as one of the best run Indian States, although the competition isn’t all that high. Its also a good reminder of the incredible diversity of India – there are plenty of chunks of that country as big as many other countries which are very different in culture and politics from what we usually think of as ‘India’ – the many cultures of the Himalayan foothills and plateaus as one example. There are also a surprising number of hot wars going on at any one time in the sub-continent, usually entirely unreported, even in India.
The question of why India seems to have faltered while China surges is one that seems to be consuming both Indians and Chinese these days – my Chinese media feeds are full of mocking commentary on India. Some Indians seem quietly confident their country is at the beginning of a renaissance, others have their exit plans well prepared. I guess it all depends on what you think of Modi. Assuming climate change doesn’t make the sub-continent uninhabitable, its not too late, there are plenty of models in Asia for late take-offs economically – Vietnam and Indonesia in particular seem to have hit that acceleration stage and both had similar problems to India.
India has its success stories. It has some of the biggest companies in the world, a vast amount of domestic talent, nuclear weapons, hypersonic missiles, and satellites. As well as…. all the other things we know about. But sometime around the mid 1990’s it started to fall very far behind its most obvious peer nation, in terms of raw GNP, human development and in tech.
Many a book and article has been written on the topic, you can pretty much pick your theory as to why India has fallen behind according to your particular prejudice. Too much capitalism, too little capitalism, too big a state, too weak a state, colonialism, the wrong type of colonialism, cultural diversity, lack of it, the caste system, paternalistic family companies, laziness (the latter often opined by upper caste Indians), and so on.
I’m something of an geographic determinist. Big continental or island States that succeed economically tend to have certain things in common – big navigable rivers or inland seas connecting natural harbours, easy to access mineral riches, good soils. India lacks many of these – it has few natural harbours, its rivers are not suitable for much transport and with some localised exceptions its soils are generally poor and unproductive without intensive labour inputs. It has plenty of coal and other minerals, but it is generally low quality and difficult to access and refine. The difficult topography of inland India always seemed to lead to lots of little feudal states historically, which proved easy for outside conquerors, with plenty of those from north of the Himalaya preceding the British.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_God_of_Small_Things
The God of Small Things, a Booker award winner takes place in Kerala.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_We_Imagine_as_Light
All We Imagine as Light, a Cannes award winner, follows to Kerala nurses trying to make it in Mumbai.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communism_in_India
Kerala is the only surviving communist state in India. West Bengal was communist for a long time.
https://www.nytimes.com/books/97/05/25/reviews/970525.25truaxt.html
May 25, 1997
A Silver Thimble in Her Fist
By ALICE TRUAX
The God of Small Things
By Arundhati Roy.
There is no single tragedy at the heart of Arundhati Roy’s devastating first novel. Although ”The God of Small Things” opens with memories of a family grieving around a drowned child’s coffin, there are plenty of other intimate horrors still to come, and they compete for the reader’s sympathy with the furious energy of cats in a sack. Yet the quality of Ms. Roy’s narration is so extraordinary — at once so morally strenuous and so imaginatively supple — that the reader remains enthralled all the way through to its agonizing finish.
This ambitious meditation on the decline and fall of an Indian family is part political fable, part psychological drama, part fairy tale, and it begins at its chronological end, in a landscape of extravagant ruin. When 31-year-old Rahel Kochamma returns to Ayemenem House, her former home in the south Indian state of Kerala, its elegant windows are coated with filth and its brass doorknobs dulled with grease; dead insects lie in the bottom of its empty vases. The only animated presence in the house seems to be great-aunt Baby Kochamma’s new television set — in front of which she and her servant sit day after day, munching peanuts.
Rahel has come back to Ayemenem not to see her great-aunt, however, but because she has heard that her twin brother, Estha, has unexpectedly returned. Estha and Rahel were once inseparable, but now they have been apart for almost 25 years — ever since the winter of 1969, when their English cousin, Sophie Mol, drowned in the river with their grandmother’s silver thimble in her fist.
”Perhaps it’s true that things can change in a day,” Ms. Roy’s narrator muses. ”That a few dozen hours can affect the outcome of whole lifetimes. And that when they do, those few dozen hours, like the salvaged remains of a burned house — the charred clock, the singed photograph, the scorched furniture — must be resurrected from the ruins and examined. Preserved. Accounted for.” And this is precisely Ms. Roy’s undertaking as, throughout her book, she shuttles between the twins’ past and present, continually angling in, crabwise, toward the night of Sophie Mol’s death….
https://www.nytimes.com/1997/06/03/books/melodrama-as-structure-for-subtlety.html
June 3, 1997
Melodrama as Structure for Subtlety
By MICHIKO KAKUTANI
THE GOD OF SMALL THINGS
By Arundhati Roy
”The God of Small Things,” Arundhati Roy’s dazzling first novel, begins as a sort of mystery story. What caused the boy named Estha to stop talking? What sent his twin sister, Rahel, into exile in the United States? Why did their beautiful mother, Ammu, end up dying alone in a grimy hotel room? What killed their English cousin, Sophie Mol? And why has a ”whiff of scandal” involving sex and death come to surround their bourgeois family?
While such questions may sound crudely melodramatic, they provide the narrative architecture of a novel that turns out to be as subtle as it is powerful, a novel that is Faulknerian in its ambitious tackling of family and race and class, Dickensian in its sharp-eyed observation of society and character…
A millennia-long tradition of organized martial arts may have helped them retain their cultural and economic identity.
Kalaripayattu.
Kerala is the most lovely part of India imho. I’ve been going to India on holiday almost every year for 20 years or so, because I love it so much. Last year I decided to fly up to Ahmedabad on my way home to spend a few days. I can’t really recommend it. Only place I’ve been where the Hindutva vibe was too much to take. Good thali though and the Gandhi ashram was worth the hour it took to visit. But Kerala is fab. The ayurvedic treatment you can get there is very reasonably priced and they are not dogmatic or trying to convert you to some new lifestyle but rather help you to get better. Kochi is a lovely little city and Thiruvanathpuram (Trivandrum) is a sort of quirky state capital with a giant wooden maharajah’s palace next to a huge temple and very walkable. But the best part is just to get out to the backwaters and eat a Keralan fish curry, washed down with coconut toddy…
My mind makes an association between Sam Kriss’ gloop and Gwyneth Paltrow’s Goop. You’re welcome.
Re: ‘organ damage’
As a cardiologist with Long Covid and a fan of this blog permit me to say that it’s impossible to know what to make of the “mild atrial irregularity” without knowing the age of the patient or the nature of the “irregularity”. Millions of people had mild atrial issues long before COVID — and it correlates with age and various other items like hypertension, alcohol consumption patterns, etc. Atrial arrhythmia is one of the most overdiagnosed and overtreated cardiac ‘conditions’, and a source of much business for the electrophysiology labs that have sprouted up all over the country in the last 20 years.
That said, since so much of the phenotype of Long Covid runs parallel with aging in general, it wouldn’t surprise me if an increase in atrial issues were one of the post-acute things we see. Still, I wouldn’t put it high on the list of things those of us with Long Covid need to fret about. (alas)
Vikas, I very much appreciate the analysis and always will, but what I hope for most is that you be well. As for me, jogging or walking daily, whether I want to or not, * seems to keep me fit.
* I never want to, but almost never miss.
Thank you, I prefer to think of my heart rate as having a certain jazziness to it. A bit of syncopation makes dancing easier.
Evidence for Biological Age Acceleration and Telomere Shortening in COVID-19 Survivors
I’m remembering from early in the pandemic the idea that getting covid aged you ten years was a topic of discussion here. Good times.
Yes, same-same with clotting. And the spike.
This site is prophylactic against morbidity.
Interesting was recently diagnosed with atrial arrhythmia and have an electrophysiology consult in a couple of weeks. Never had Covid (that I know of) and not vaxed. So just another random data point signifying nothing.
“Hope lies with Ursula” One would think, or hope, that as a former defense minister, EC President von der Leyen would demonstrate a significant grasp of what’s happening in Ukraine and what’s at stake as the war escalates.
Is there any evidence for that belief?
“Xi sits in Beijing. In Moscow, Putin. In Washington, Trump is on the way.
You can call them crazy guys. They don’t want good.
Hope lies with von der Leyen in Brussels.”
Absurd and offensive. What is most interesting is the vilification of a China that is continually enriching the world from the well-bering of the lowest in income, to the environment, to support of the United Nations and a voice for peace:
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2024-10-17/Chart-of-the-Day-China-s-progress-on-poverty-alleviation-1xLRSROzOo0/p.html
October 17, 2024
China’s progress on poverty alleviation
October 17 marks China’s National Poverty Relief Day, also the International Day for the Eradication of Poverty, a day dedicated to raising awareness of poverty eradication.
Through continuous efforts, the final 98.99 million impoverished rural residents were lifted out of poverty, and all 832 impoverished counties and 128,000 villages were removed from the poverty list by the end of 2020.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2024-10-17/Chart-of-the-Day-China-s-progress-on-poverty-alleviation-1xLRSROzOo0/img/e5a7b31290bf4e02907dd8eb2cdefe3c/e5a7b31290bf4e02907dd8eb2cdefe3c.jpeg
have appreciated you joining the commentariat from the first – thank you once again –
Jabura Basadai:
I appreciate you; thank you so much.
No it didn’t. US had intentionaly spent gazillions arming extremists of all sorts all around the world, knowing very well what they are, and rebranding them as freedom fighters in order to sell the lie to idi*ts.
If the Russians manage to bring Afghanistan in from the cold like they are doing for North Korea, then maybe that country can develop all those mineral reserves that the Pentagon tried to use to justify the occupation and rebuild their country. Just don’t forget the real reason why the occupation-
https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1547752702511263745
I once read an interview of a warlord from the Northern Alliance which I hope I had bookmarked, but no such luck, so I have no proof. But in that interview the man clearly declared that had they (mujahideen) known what would follow for Afghanistan, they certainly would have not fought “the shuravi”.
I guess Taliban learned from all those mistakes.
Andrew Korybko has an interesting take on Russia’s strategy re Afghanistan. The Kremlin is playing the long game, as usual.
https://asiatimes.com/2024/11/russias-grand-geo-economic-plan-a-step-closer-in-afghanistan/
“Russian Ruble Collapses As Putin’s Economy in Trouble”
I think that Newsweek are getting their hopes up. I don’t think that the sanctions are causing the inflation in Russia so much as the Russian economy is overheating due to it’s expansion as a wartime economy. A shortage of workers is not helping things either. Inside Russia the ruble is not a problem as that is what the workers are getting paid in so if Newsweek is hoping, like Biden, that the ruble will become rubble they may have to wait a while.
Just wait until these Russian collapse stories meet the China collapse stories and have babies together. Maybe with some “at what cost” polycule added in.
The data other than an artificial currency value are fine. While what matters is currency support from China, which is there along with general economic support. China is by far the largest world economy and open and inviting to Russian exchange. Russians as a number of other peoples can come and go in China with no visas and Hainan could not be a better winter refuge; even a free port refuge.
Russia has made China more than energy self-sufficient, and the Russian and Chinese economies are complementary in important ways beyond energy.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2024/October/weo-report?c=223,924,132,134,532,534,536,158,546,922,112,111,&s=PPPGDP,PPPSH,&sy=2000&ey=2023&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1
October 15, 2024
Gross Domestic Product based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP) for Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, United Kingdom and United States, 2000-2023
2023
China ( 33,552)
United States ( 27,721)
India ( 14,620)
Russia ( 6,512)
Japan ( 6,398)
Germany ( 5,876)
Brazil ( 4,457)
Indonesia ( 4,335)
France ( 4,211)
United Kingdom ( 4,137)
With a weak Ruble, Russian gas exports will be even cheaper in comparison to what the
suckersEU will pay for strong-dollar US LNG.The ruble-Euro exchange rate on 23.02.2022 was 90.88, today it is 114.31; this is not a particularly significant change after nearly three years, especially in light of all the fireworks that have taken place.
RWA’s summary is interesting.
I would add one more thing, based on my 20+ years of experience importing into Russia. Every year without fail, as the new year approached, the ruble would depreciate vs the $ and Euro. Always. This drove our accountants crazy, as it made it more expensive for us to buy $/Euro (usually Euro) to pay our EU suppliers before the end of the year, and because we were pricing in Euro (though selling in rubles) it also drove up our ruble profits (i.e., more income taxes to pay). And every year, after the holidays ended after 15 January, the ruble would appreciate (usually back to its previous level). Then as now, two factors were at play: higher seasonal demand for $/Euro (Russians preparing to vacation abroad, retailers buying imported products for the holiday shopping season, trading companies settling their foreign accounts payable before the close of the year), and the Russian government gently leaning on the scales to weaken the ruble (in order to boost corporate income tax revenues across the board, a nice holiday gift for the upcoming year’s budget).
I think there is nothing new under the sun. Let’s see what the exchange rates look like at the end of January 2025 before jumping to conclusions.
Since January 2000, the real exchange value of Russian currency has increased by 55.7%:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=mvBn
January 15, 2018
Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate for Russia, 2000-2024
(Indexed to 2000)
I don’t see why Russians should be too concerned about currency fluctuations. Free floating currencies bounce all over the place for a variety of reasons. Over the last 25 years the Canadian dollar has swung from 68 cents US to 1.10 $ US and back down again. It doesn’t make much difference at the retail level for consumers but has caused serious problems for exporters when the CAD was high. Many factories have closed as a result.
I should add Canada is a net energy exporter, as is Russia. For a net importer a low currency could cause serious problems.
If anyone is wondering about the butterfly, it’s 3D rendered.
https://unsplash.com/photos/a-butterfly-with-orange-and-black-wings-on-a-beige-background-cnWcEbSlnio
How the left became the enemy of the working classes Thomaz Fazi (Micael T)
> This means you’re building a new political language, a new political lexicon
A new political lexicon, unburdened by what has been? That’s a danger, baby, bathwater. But here’s a start:
: Left/Right is historically accurate, since the Left was where the Third Estate sat during the National Assembly, and it was dominated by lawyers, not workers. What was, now is.
: Taleb: Never use terms such as progressive or conservative without reference to a rate of change Progressive and conservative are ill defined terms, verbalistic labels. It is required to specify a rate of change for every specific domain. Rationally progressive means embracing progress by accepting a certain rate of change deemed optimal. Too high a rate of change cancels the gains from previous mutations; while too slow a change leads to misfitness.
: Pandit, Pradhan, & van Schaik: Figure 6 shows the number of feasible classes as a function of the skew in power, σ, and the original group size, N(0). … the number of feasible classes has a very weak dependence on group size. Thus, for the N(0) in the typical range of human group sizes, the number of classes only depends on σ. Intriguingly, at lower σ we expect to find more classes… The size of the upper class is largest for σ → 0 (~ half of the group), thus potentially leading to a large number of middle classes.
Power. That’s a word Fazi doesn’t hone in on. Rather applicable to the tremendous wealth inequality of an oligarchy.
Thanks. Taleb cuts to the bone with It is required to specify a rate of change for every specific domain. That there’s the crux of the biscuit, to use a Zappa metaphor.
Sen. Lindsey Graham: Ukraine War all ‘about money’
The ghost of Gen. Smeadley Butler smirks: War IS a Racket.
Organic whole bean coffee here has gone up about 50% over the last couple years, bagged or bulk, across the board.
It not something I’m up to date on, but international law on undersea cables is mostly based on the Paris Convention of 1888 (yes, thats right, 1888).
In simple terms, there is an obligation on ships not do do anything that could break a cable, and its up to national governments to enforce the law on vessels registered in its country.
Military ships do have the right under Article X to board a ship suspected of having broken a cable so even if the breaking was accidental, stopping and checking the Chinese ship would be lawful under the law of the sea.
This Atlantic Council (booo!) article says otherwise-stating your aforementioned treaty doesn’t provide guarantees and protections for undersea cables.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/hybrid-warfare-project/international-law-doesnt-adequately-protect-undersea-cables-that-must-change/
They are not really contradictory. The right to check a vessel under any flag that is suspected of causing damage is established in Article X, but its always been ambiguous about what rights and obligations apply after the stop occurs, especially if a State actor is suspected to be involved in the damage or the ‘home’ country of the vessel involved refuses to co-operate. There has also been questions raised about other types of cable, specifically transnational electric cables, as they are not explicitly covered by the convention.
High profile stops are rare, but on a more local scale in seas like the Irish Sea or Dogger Bank, stop and checks in international waters by military vessels of fishing boats suspected of dredging too near to cables happens all the time (fishermen regularly complain about this) – it doesn’t matter where the fishing boat is registered, its a well established right. It just gets ambiguous when you are dealing with contested areas as in the South China Sea or if the suspect is a military vessel -, that’s what the article is about.
Re: British Parliament votes on euthanasia: I immediately thought “well they’ve mined “1984” for all it’s worth and are turning to a US novel, “Make Room Make Room”upon which the movie “Soylent Green” was based.
On checking novel’s origin , some stats in storyline: Set in mid 1999-New Years day 2000, World population ~7B (seemingly indicative of extreme overpopulation!) and NYC 34M.
Food shortage driven by resource hoarding by rich is a major factor in social upheaval . Euthanasia becomes a protein source…
Never gonna Happen!
Any thoughts on the idea of a western sourced false flag operation in an allied state? The London camera thing is weird but no where near convincing. And would London even be the best target? Is there a euro state where the people aren’t fully on board with project Ukraine and a massive event would act to pull the West together? Perhaps blowing up the Hague would accomplish multiple things at the same time?
First, because of the UK’s role in NATO’s war on Russia, London will be one of Russia’s three most obvious targets, two of which are in the UK, amongst all the possible targets throughout the Collective West; second, the British security services are best placed and most motivated to organise a false flag; third, the UK’s Parliament and population are incredibly gullible (note the ease with which the ridiculous explanation of the Skripal affair has been accepted); and fourth, it was planned before the Oresnik strike when the various intelligence services still thought that the public would accept that Russia would use a nuke.
The problem the West has now is that Russia could take out ALL the decision-making centres (and population centres) in Europe without nukes and the only possible source of effective (that is, nuclear) retaliation would be the US, and that would be disastrous for the US, so the US would consider Article 5, as it is obliged to do, and say “No thanks, old buddies. The war against Russia is now strictly a European affair”.
There was a pamphlet about the decline of the UK published by Encounter magazine, a CIA front, in the fifties entitled, as I remember, “Suicide of a Nation” (God knows where it is among my shelves). The title was, of course, metaphorical. The question now is whether the Brits are prepared to play a game of Russian roulette with all chambers loaded. Unfortunately, the answer will most likely be that the ideologically driven incompetents who’ve been running this war beyond the reach of sanity will say, “Yes, please. I’ll go first, so pass me the gun”.
I have to admit that I did not understand how virulently various interests in the UK hated the Russians. I’ve been amazed to watch my UK friends post meme after meme describing how awful the Russians are and how we should just annihilate them all. It makes me think that western leaders will only be happy when Gaza is full of ghosts and Russia is a graveyard.
I seem to have missed some crucial Britishness classes because I have never felt this way. And I really don’t see where my compatriots have got this from.
However, I did have a New Year’s party in Dec 2022 which nearly ruined a thirty year friendship group when it turned out that two of us (me + gold trader) took Russia’s side and two of us (particle physics professor and healthcare informatics / pandemic data analysis PhD) took the Ukraine’s. We were shocked by their fact-free convictions. We have agreed not to speak of it again!
Actually, if you do a YT search about the CCD cameras in London; you’ll find many videos stating that they have been off-line for the past 85 days or more, not just 24 hours. There’s been no official explanation as to why, but then again, what reporter nowadays would dare to ask the question? I say, “off-line” because the theory is that they’re still working, just no longer accessible to the public (nor to the regular police either, for some reason). Commenters on these videos have stated that a similar thing has happened in Manchester, and I believe Bristol. Apparently, MI-5/6 has form on this because the CCD cameras around London were supposedly not operating on the day of 7/7 either. I’m just repeating what the YTubers have been saying on this last bit, but they’re all pretty insistent on this. Who knows what the truth is anymore? For anyone who wants to have some real fun; do a YT search about those drones that have been showing up at UK airports.
The false flag theory is plausible but if the goal is all-out war with Russia, western war planners once again fail to take everything into account. I, an average guy living an average life, know for near certain that a co-ordinated allied attack on Russia would be met with a similar mobilisation from China. It’s just obvious that China’s best interests are Russia not falling into western hands and getting used in turn to isolate China. This looks like it’s going to be a case of dog catching car.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/29/world/europe/uk-assisted-dying-bill-vote.html
November 29, 2024
After Emotional Debate, British Lawmakers Vote to Legalize Assisted Dying
In a landmark decision on Friday, Parliament voted in favor of allowing assisted suicide for some terminally ill people under strict conditions.
By Stephen Castle
[ Seemingly explaining why Labour has shown no legislative interest in strengthening the public health service. No wonder why Jeremy Corbyn had to be expelled from Labour. ]
It seems that rational people with increasingly painful, progressive and handicapping chronic illnesses which are not in themselves terminal will still be forced to commit suicide without the support of friends or family. Seems that Parliament is addicted to short measure
The British legislation may be a first step. In Canada where we have had Medically Assistance in Dying (MAID) for a number of years there have been a variety of steps allowing people suffering greatly with no hope of recovery the relief of MAID. About 7500 people avail themselves of this merciful way of leaving their suffering behind, able to leave this world in the company of loved ones. I’m 72 and fully support the legislation.
The British people overwhelmingly support the legislation as shown by a poll published in The Independent yesterday. The support is greatest among those over 55.
re: Oreshnik
orbital weapon as explained by the villain in “G.I. Joe” (2013)
Project Zeus’s Demonstration
2:30
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SlrA-vPOGVQ
“None of the fallout, all of the fun”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_n1FZaKzF8&t=225s
“Reimagining” the Resistance: Lawfare Warriors Express Regret But Not Remorse After Election Jonathan Turley
I read Turley’s blog regularly and find it informative. However, he is kind of a one-trick “lawfare” pony. Regular machinations of the Federalist Society or ALEC appear to escape his eagle-eye. It’s unbecoming for a person to speak out of one side of his mouth, but it’s a regular thing for lawyers.
Business articles persisting in the myth that xmas shopping begins after Thanksgiving. I guess they never venture out themselves to see the first of the Xmas displays being set up around labor day and the store being fully overwhelmed with yuletide expressions right around halloween. There is no longer a black Friday but rather, a black November. If the supposed holiday seasons’ sales are less than than stellar, retail has no one to blame but themselves as they have cannibalize the season with an uber-long ramp up.
https://www.axios.com/2024/11/27/americans-consumer-spending-holiday-season
This is more than a panic reaction. It seems my government is really committed to WW3: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/29/abandoning-ukraine-infinitely-higher-costs-head-of-mi6
When a minimizer of the ongoing Pandemic is worried about H5N1, that is a sight to behold.
A Bird Flu Pandemic Would Be One of the Most Foreseeable Catastrophes in History – Zeynep Tufekci
And it is not paywalled, either, which is extremely rare at NY Times. Rest assured, after H5N1 hits, she’ll be minimizing yet another Pandemic, if it turns out people don’t turn blue and explode. None the less, clearly some subset of the elite are rightly freaking out.
We’ve definitely arrived at the bucket-up phase of this.
One thing I keep in mind about the “Collective Biden” is that the husk alone has had Covid 3 times, Dr Jill has had it several times and Blinken, Sullivan and the rest have had it several times as well.
This may have something to do with why the USA is now in a shooting War with Russia and it does not bode well for the future.
Maybe we’ll get lucky…
This was also reported by TASS but no sign in mainstream media in the states…
https://news-pravda.com/world/2024/11/28/886216.html
“Up to 40 specialists from the USA were destroyed”: The Ministry of Defense revealed details of the retaliatory strike against Ukraine
From A strange new climate era is beginning to take hold
So WaPo basically blames developing nations, Trump tariffs, AI, whatever, the blame directed everywhere except at the capitalist class itself.
No, the solution to climate is to terminate capitalism. Instead we’re all gonna burn alive. Without a serious discussion of what all of this energy usage is in service of, and what people really need to live a decent life, there won’t be any worthwhile progress on avoiding an extinction level event.
Good stuff. As much as I like the the idea of Putin as Cobra Commander holding the West hostage, it makes about as much sense as the more hyperbolic claims about the Oreshnik.
We already have decades of research and experimental data on fairly similar cases:
1) On the low end, large sabot penetrators (tungsten or depleted uranium): 10kg at Mach 5-6
2) On the high end, HEAT warhead penetrators (copper): 1kg at Mach 15-25
Neither of these cause destruction by mystical waves of pressure or heat. The damage is purely kinetic: direct impact and spalled fragments of whatever they hit.
A 100kg* penetrator travelling at Mach 10 will cause proportionately scaled damage–but it is not remotely comparable to a nuclear weapon. At least, that seems like the safest assumption unless we see dramatic evidence to the contrary.
* The throw weight of a Bulava at max range is 1,000 kg bus and warheads, but let’s be generous and assume something with more weight and less range.
(This was meant as a reply to AG’s GI Joe clip, but it looks like I missed it).
Since you mention COBRA – your post could either be about Covid OR Oreshnik.
p.s. Did Putin not state that several Oreshniks could cause as much destruction as a tactical nuke? If so I don´t know what value of a nuke´s powers he was referring to. Fission is a different beast altogether. But with conventional destructive capabalities added?
Yes, that’s right. Let’s do some rough math (hopefully correctly) and see where this might be coming from:
A small nuke = a kiloton of TNT = 4.2E12 joules
A 100kg* penetrator traveling at Mach 10 = 5.9E8
36 penetrators in an Oreshnik = 2.1E10
100 Oreshniks (or just 10 Oreshniks if it is a big missile) = 2.1E12
It seems that Putin is doing a sleight of hand that several others have done to impress the folks at home. You add up the joules of energy from a vast number of penetrators with such and such weight and velocity and eventually you get an impressive number.
But it doesn’t add up to quite as much practical destructive force as the number implies. And even then, Putin must have been using numbers from a small tactical nuke.
* 100kg is just a guess. If the missile is small, they couldn’t be much heavier, but a big short ranged missile could carry 10x more weight.
What do you want to destroy? Counter force or counter value?
Critical issue is accuracy of penetrators.
If you have 18 hard targets (assign 2 “penetrators” to each) spread around the area of Hiroshima, you can achieve results equal to a 20 kt bombs.
Would as air burst have gotten deep vaults?
Jeffrey Lewis on TWITTER tried to ridicule the Oreshnik a bit by describing that buildings that were not targeted but were next to where the factotry was located had suffered cracks. Thus it was a bad weapon and the claims of accuracy fraudulent.
I don´t understand these people. Why do scientists have to act like propagandists.
It reminds of the German nuclear phyisicists when they were interned in Farm Hall in 1945 and were mocking US and others as not able to pull off a nuke before August 6th shell-shocked them…
Kinetic penetrators were never about sheer energy, but about focusing it in a small area. They can get much deeper than surface explosion can. Comparing just energies of different projectile types is like comparing just GDPs of countries.
Here’s a math problem. How big would a surface detonation have to be, in order to destroy underground bunker that one Oreshnik kinetic penetrator can?
re: Project Zeus
Did Zeus eat hazelnuts? I don´t think so.
They are not your typical Greek flora, or are they?
Most of the calculations I’ve seen compare the energy delivered by the mach 10 mass to that of kilotons of TNT, like nukes. Putin claimed that the temperature of the mass was 4000° which is above the melting point of most metals, and the plasma envelope around it was evident. That added thermal energy, and the dynamics of a plasma shielded molten blob might lead to some interesting effects not obvious from more mundane experiments.
I agree with you that this is more than it seems. It is only a closed system in a vacuum. Passing through the atmosphere the air resistance creates the friction that generates this heat. That is likely adding to the net effect of the explosion but not figured into the equation. Metallurgists know about the molecular changes that take place above critical temperatures making some stainless steels magnetic and some non-magnetic. When tool steels (normally cubic-centered structures) reach critical temperatures they become austenitic (face-centered cubic grain structure) and lose their magnetism. Unknown changes are probably generated by this heat to the unknown substance of these rods, but it has been tested in Russia. Deferring to people who have practical experience in this is not magical thinking but pragmatic.
I have seen several suggestions that the process at the end is magnetohydrodynamics, no official word yet. The scientist in charge is saying that currently they operate at 2,200deg. centigrade but theory lets them hope to get it up to 3,000 deg centigrade. i.e. Mach 15
@ Wisker. About the only realistic assessment I’ve read here. One has only to look at the published pictures of the above ground buildings at Yukhmash to see the sturdy Soviet era buildings have hardly “turned to dust”. Some caught fire from the white hot heat of passing projectiles. Subsequent descriptions of clusters of projectile holes in the ground where they missed a building have turned up. Nobody seems to have dug down to have a look at the “destruction” below. Hardly worth the bother.
But, the general belief here is that somehow the projectiles from Oreshnik have kiloton nuclear bomb power. I’ll repeat again for the more dense folks here who seem to believe in magic: The final energy of the rod projectiles cannot exceed that of the chemical energy released by the missile’s rocket motors. Period. It is a closed system and the Law of Conservation of Energy applies. If 40 tonnes of rocket fuel, expended all at once, like in blowing up on the launch pad, is equivalent to several kilotons of TNT, I’m a monkey’s uncle. But if fairy tales make you happy, so be it. And the same goes for Putin.
The advantage of Oreshnik is the super fast delivery time of an actual nuke on target from a mobile launcher. Now that indeed is a concern for Western “strategists” who might be awake. If indeed, any competent ones are on the job who are not beholden to the party line like MSM journalists who are unconsciously adept at writing “stuff” that pleases their overlords.
And no, I am not making shit up. Others are.
I don’t know where people are getting kilotons out of this weapon. I’ve seen, and my own crude calculations produce, multi-ton-level per 75-100kg munition, with that energy focused in a cone along the direction of travel like a large hammer blow. The highest I’ve seen is 11 tons per munition, and I suspect that’s too big, although the Ukrainians estimated velocity at 11.0 to 11.4 km/s, a lot higher than other reports, and energy is velocity squared. Assuming no more than 10 tons tnt equivalent/munition, that’s less than 360 tons tnt per device. That’s still a lot.
What’s even more interesting is how tight the sheaf of the impact appears to be. If that’s the case, this weapon is incredibly precise (if not accurate) especially for its velocity. Whatever is below the impact points is going to be crushed. Explosives used in that tight of a sheaf impacting within a second of each other might cause less damage due to interference, whether that be due to phase cancellation or blowing up the following warheads or other factors. This is an interesting weapon system for sure, but probably not even close to kiloton yield even in aggregate. That’s still enough to utterly destroy something on the receiving end, and do so efficiently.
Your point is valid and I am sceptical of these claims but should we also consider something like “energy flux”, i.e. the impact is vertical and focused in a narrow cone around the falling projectile, rather than a spherical explosion, increasing the damage in a directional way?
If it is focused in a cone with 1/10th the radius of a spherical explosion, the “flux” is ~ 100x greater (I am modelling it as a passing through a flat circle rather than a small spherical surface).
Michael von der Schulenburg with acid comment on EU in BERLINER ZEITUNG:
Ukraine War: New EU Resolution Brings Europe to the Brink of World War III
https://archive.is/wwzU3
Finale:
This resolution is a document full of hatred, panic and hysteria – a shameful expression of irresponsibility and a lack of empathy for the many victims of such war hysteria. There is nothing in it for us Europeans to be proud of. Fortunately, this resolution is unlikely to have any direct political impact on the war in Ukraine. The European Parliament has simply demonstrated once again that it behaves like a “dummy decision-maker” on many issues – in this case, fortunately for all of us.
For me, who has always been an ardent supporter of the European idea, it is painful to listen to the debates of a war-mongering and hate-filled parliamentary majority. I then ask myself: what kind of monster have we created with the EU?
I believe this is the full text of the resolution:
JOINT MOTION FOR A RESOLUTION on reinforcing EU’s unwavering support to Ukraine against Russia’s war of aggression and the increasing military cooperation between North Korea and Russia
This is just an embarrassing display of political, economic and social delusion and, as mi mam used to say, “Fine words don’t butter no parsnips”. But stupidity can elicit a tree full of hazelnuts.
Good multi language pun!
It is a monster which will either remain subservient to the US, or will gradually implode and it’s members will part company with each other, or both; or it could simply recognise reality and either implode or remains in some form as abstract in it’s realty as it’s model, the Holy Roman Empire, accepting that it is the inferior in terms of it’s relationships with Russia and China – on whom it is dependent if it’s inhabitants are to enjoy a standard of living anywhere approaching the standard they enjoy today which, of course, for most people means a standard lower than that of 2021.
Just started reading that wonderful post about Kerala. A thing about it that kind of lights me up a bit, and I think may not be mentioned in the piece itself, is it’s proximity to the upcoming north/south transport corridor that will bypass Suez and go all the way to Russia, IIRC. The port of Chabahar in Iran is where it will start. This looks set to be an interesting corner of the world as the near future unfolds. I’m looking forward to watching how things develop.
Another TASS report:
Russia weighs resumption of nuclear tests — senior diplomat
“The situation is quite complicated,” Sergey Ryabkov said
https://tass.com/politics/1880035