Links 2/7/2025

Doctor investigated after smuggling his pet cat into hospital for CAT scan Independent

New Indo-European genetic evidence Language Log

Climate

The world has probably passed “peak air pollution” Our World in Data

How huge parts of the U.S. could become uninhabitable within decades — even so-called ‘climate havens’ Independent

Microplastics Build Up in Human Organs, Especially the Brain The Scienstist

Wind propulsion now a force to be reckoned with Seatrade Maritime. The deck: “Wind power should now be considered as an option for regulatory compliance and cost savings says classification society DNV.”

Water

Why the water Trump ordered released in California won’t help Los Angeles firefighting CBS

Syndemics

Could the Bird Flu Become Airborne? NYT

Differential protection against SARS-CoV-2 reinfection pre- and post-Omicron Nature. From the Abstract: “Before Omicron, natural infection provided strong and durable protection against reinfection, with minimal waning over time. However, during the Omicron era, protection was robust only for those recently infected, declining rapidly over time and diminishing within a year.”

China?

How China’s government is supercharging the rise of humanoid robots South China Morning Post

Chinese-Style Modernization: Revolution and the Worker-Peasant Alliance Monthly Review

China can detect US Seawolf-class submarine with magnetic wake tracking: study South China Morning Post

Myanmar

Casinos, high-rises and fraud: The BBC visits a bizarre city built on scams BBC

Syraqistan

No guarantees for Netanyahu during Trump meeting: Israeli media Al Mayadeen

Trump’s Real Estate Envoy to the Middle East Foreign Policy. Steve Witkoff.

Egypt lobbies against Trump plan to empty Gaza of Palestinians as Israel prepares for it AP. Commentary:

Netanyahu dismisses Palestinian state, suggests Saudis should take Palestinians instead Anadolu Agency

Trump’s Gaza plans fall flat with GOP lawmakers The Hill

Dear Old Blighty

Britain’s Machiavellian Answer for Trump Foreign Policy

New Not-So-Cold War

Poll in Russia shows high public support for war against Ukraine, ISW reports Ukrainska Pravda

Poll shows Ukrainians mostly feel hope and pride when thinking about Ukraine Ukrainska Pravda

Smuggled Grand Pianos Show Trump’s Challenge in Pressuring Putin Bloomberg

Will Fico and Orbán’s blackmail succeed in restoring Russian gas transit? European Pravda

Baltic nations end electricity ties to Russia through Soviet-era grid and tighten EU bond EuroNews

Wagner’s Business Model in Syria and Africa: Profit and Patronage RUSI

Trump Administration

Judge halts Trump buyouts ahead of deadline The Hill

‘Fork in the Road’ buyout offer reaches space and national security agencies despite exemptions Space News

* *

Senate confirms Project 2025 architect Russell Vought to lead powerful White House budget office AP

Trump’s gut-it-all plan for D.C.’s “Deep State” Axios

* *

Donald Trump seeks to close tax loophole enjoyed by private equity groups FT

Trump sanctions ‘illegitimate’ International Criminal Court Al Jazeera

A Late-Night Call Between Trump and Bannon The Bulwark

Immigration

Entitled residents of East Coast hamlet hold panicked meeting to keep nannies from being deported Daily Mail

DOGE

Bessent’s Goals Won’t Work Unless DOGE Does, Too John Authers, Bloomberg. The deck: “It’s becoming clear how much the Trump economic plan needs significant federal spending cuts.” Important!

Elon Musk’s Demolition Crew ProPublica

* *

Lawsuits Related to Trump Admin Executive Orders Court Watch. Current as of 2/6/2025 at 3:40PM EST.

13 states to sue Trump administration over Musk’s access to federal payment data Anadolu Agency

* *

The US Treasury Claimed DOGE Technologist Didn’t Have ‘Write Access’ When He Actually Did Wired. Treasury will want to be checking its systems for whatever back doors these guys built in.

* *

Donald Trump’s administration plans to retain fewer than 300 USAID staff FT

Trump admin halts NOAA-sponsored studies as DOGE work speeds up E&E News

Read: Trump sued by unions over “illegal” move to dismantle USAID Axios

Representative Val Hoyle Statement on Leaving the DOGE Caucus Congressman (press release) Val Hoyle, OR-04

The Bezzle

Donald Trump Jr Says Crypto Is the ‘Future of American Hegemony’ CoinDesk

Digital Watch

Man jailed over police AI program, then freed 17 months after victim raised doubts ABC27

Supply Chain

US farmers ‘prepare for the worst’ in new Trump trade war FT

Zeitgeist Watch

You’re Being Alienated From Your Own Attention The Atlantic

Class Warfare

MLMs are the mirror-world version of community organizing Cory Doctorow, Pluralistic

Devoted nap-takers explain the benefits of sleeping on the job AP

Antidote du jour (John Mackenzie Burke):

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

202 comments

  1. Zagonostra

    >Trump’s gut-it-all plan for D.C.’s “Deep State” Axios

    Trump promised during his campaign to root out the “Deep State” — generally framed as institutional resistance in D.C. that impedes his agenda. But the speed and tactics of Trump’s vengeance-fueled cost-cutting efforts have been surprising.

    So Axios thinks the Deep State (no need to put in quotes) is “institutional resistance” (quotes definitely necessary) that Trump doesn’t like or whose policies he disagrees with, wanting to get his pound of flesh. No, I don’t think this is the Deep State. Trump is part and parcel of the Deep State. I think a better, operational definition can be found in the works of Peter Dale Scott.

    A second order government, behind the constitutional state that is growing stronger. Party institutionalisation in non-accountable agencies like the CIA and NSA, in Booz Hamilton – where 70% of intelligence budgets go. And behind these firms are Wall Street and big oil” (Dale-Scott, 2015).

    https://warontherocks.com/2019/02/how-the-deep-state-came-to-america-a-history/

    1. GramSci

      I find it ironic that the linked War on the Rocks piece traces the concept of a Deep State to ~1990s Turkey, completely overlooking MI6’s efforts to subvert the Ottoman Empire in quest of oil in the runup to the Great War. As if, perhaps, the concept must be restricted to domestic affairs?

      1. pjay

        In fairness, I think the author is tracing the contemporary usage of the term itself in the context of US politics, rather than the political or institutional phenomena described by this concept. He sees this usage as influenced by Peter Dale Scott’s work who, in turn, took the term from historical work on Turkey. Also, I’m sure the author’s own institutional affiliation and academic expertise influenced his efforts:

        “Ryan Gingeras is an associate professor in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School and is an expert on Turkish, Balkan and Middle East history.”

        Given this background, I think it is not a bad overview.

      2. Lefty Godot

        Peter Dale Scott (who amazingly still seems to be alive) popularized the term Deep State. Before him I don’t think you saw the term widely used in this country.

      3. LifelongLib

        From what little history I’ve read, British policy toward the Ottoman Empire before WW1 was more about thwarting Russia and getting a “land bridge” to India than it was about oil. At the time the U.S. was the world’s biggest oil producer and Mideast oil was relatively undeveloped. Although Britian had tried to convert its naval fleet to oil the massive demand for it came later, with more commercial uses and the rise of the automobile.

        1. Michael Hudson

          Britain didn’t want Russia to gain access to the Mediterranean. It blocked Greece from backing Russia against the Ottomans (against whom Greece had fought its revolution in the 1920s), and also militarily blocked Egypt from supporting the Ottomans during and after the Crimean War. It’s a long story with a long unfolding, working through many Debt Collection commissions appointed throughout North Africa and the Near East to take control of the newly independent republics who all fell behind in their debt service. (I’m writing that chapter in my current history of debt from the Crusades to WW I.)

      4. Lambert Strether Post author

        > I find it ironic that the linked War on the Rocks piece traces the concept of a Deep State to ~1990s Turkey, completely overlooking MI6’s efforts to subvert the Ottoman Empire in quest of oil in the runup to the Great War.

        That is in fact the origin of the term. Terms do not necessarily originate contemporaneously with the realities they describe. So I think “overlook” is at best question-begging.

    2. pjay

      I don’t think this is the Deep State either, but I do think that this might be how Trump himself perceives it – as a massive internal partisan “resistance” to Trump himself. To the extent that his administration and its Republican allies keep portraying it as a nest of “bleeding heart liberals” or “wokeness” radicals or friends of “dictatorships in Cuba and Iran,” they will only contribute to this public obfuscation. As long as the “Deep State” machinery supports *their* material or ideological interests and allies, they’ll probably be fine with it.

      1. Chris Cosmos

        The Deep State is a condominium of interests in and out of government. They are sometimes loose associations sometimes hard-wired intricate and powerful organizations. The mainstream media is loosely associated with the Deep State while the “security” part is quite tight, i.e., CIA militaries and contractors (and their contractors in organized crime), covert ops people, and so on. This part of the Deep State has its own agenda and own finance as in their involvement with drug-running and other illegal activities–which have been going on since the National Security Act of 1947.

      2. Lambert Strether Post author

        > Deep State

        The phrase “Deep State” is meaningless drivel a pseudo-profound but highly cathected earworm that people love to use because it makes them feel, and seem, insightful. Hence its virulence.,

        To make one superficial point, how on earth is one to make sense of how the ruling class rules without giving an account of how the same people (personnel, cadres) move from State to Civil Society?

  2. The Rev Kev

    ” ‘Fork in the Road’ buyout offer reaches space and national security agencies despite exemptions ”

    I guess Musk is taking the opportunity to gut any space-connected government body so that they will not be able to compete with him when he slips back into the private sector. But I wonder about all those government workers leaving government service as they are taking away all their expertise and experience. A twenty-something year old still studying in college may not be able to cut it to replace them, probable to the surprise of those tech bros. Looks like those government workers are not the only ones to be getting “forked” then.

    1. GramSci

      Elon no doubt plans to offer those redundants who genuflect with form and grace jobs as consultants to train those twenty-somethings who genuflect with form and grace.

    2. TomDority

      I place the odds of those government workers who take the offer will be one in one hundred of ever getting back to a gainful employment. They should look at how their retirement benefits will be affected upon taking the offer and, the many other myriad implications to their earnings going forward.
      The idea “A twenty-something year old still studying in college may not be able to cut it to replace them” is certainly not a problem because they don’t care if expertise and experience dwindles as they are trying to drop wages and payroll while assuming control or power to impose debt peonage on the population to save cash for themselves — the 1% the FIRE sector

      1. Chris Cosmos

        I don’t think this project of really limiting gov’t workers is about replacing “experts” with half-witted young college grads. The problem is that the institution of gov’t is, in the main, either corrupt, incompetent, or both and I’ve directly seen all three at work in gov’t. Competent offices make up, maybe, half of gov’t workers–the problem is that the policies they attempt to execute are often moronic and counter-productive to the public other than those that bribe Congress.

        1. Yves Smith

          Sorry, you need to spend more time in developing economies. These governments you decry as corrupt and incompetent are paragons of virtue compared to the norms here.

            1. Lambert Strether Post author

              Well, you’ve got to use your words.

              Assuming good faith, what is the practice that makes government at the State level acceptable you, and at the Federal level not, if “comptence” be the metric?*

              * Surely you’re not saying that all Federal workers must be “above average,” like the children of Lake Wobegone. That’s one of the flaws in the supremely stupid concept of running government like a start-up. If I’m going to the Post Office to get my new passport** — and no, I don’t want to use a hack-prone enshittifier-owned app for that purpose, heaven forfend — do I want a worker who sleeps under their desk, or one that bangs out at 5:00pm? I think the answer is obvious.

              ** As those who can should be doing.

    3. Bsn

      Take note that NASA doesn’t have many “government workers” as it’s been privatized for quite a few years.

  3. JohnA

    Re Poll in Russia shows high public support for war against Ukraine, ISW reports

    Intro: “Despite mounting economic hardship and military setbacks, a Russian state poll claims that most of the population supports the war against Ukraine. However, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) question the reliability of these findings.”

    Maybe instead, the ISW ought to question the reliability of the claims that Russia is suffering mounting economic hardship and military setbacks. Neither is apparent according to most reporting not based on Ukraine propaganda.

    1. Daniil Adamov

      There is a pretty serious ongoing increase in inflation. It is so far from creating a revolutionary situation that it almost isn’t funny, but it is a hardship, especially for the lower income brackets. As for setbacks, I suppose they must mean the fact that Ukraine hasn’t crumbled completely yet. As setbacks go, that’s pretty weak, but it is something to point at.

      1. timbers

        Regarding increases in inflation and surprise that its not fueling revolution…you’re referring to the US, right?

        1. Wukchumni

          In theory a Soviet Ruble was worth worth a buck fifty before the curtain came down on Communism, and then it took 1,000 to equal a lone greenback, followed by the currency shock in the latter 90’s.

          We don’t really know inflation in the USA, the crippling kind, and yeah i’m just as guilty grousing about it. Went grocery shopping at WinCo the other day, and it came to $142, and without prompting the cashier said to me…

          ‘Geeze, it doesn’t seem like much for $142’

          I was in Mexico during their long hyperinflation in the 80’s, and it was especially difficult on retail merchants, as the price of things had to be changed often with it only going up. I remember seeing a can of food with at least 20 price stickers on top of one another.

          In the end when the New Peso replaced the old Peso @ a rate of 1,000 old for 1 new, the old Peso was worth 1/264th of its value against the Yanqui Dollar when I was a teenager.

          We ain’t seen anything like that, and one of the tells would be real estate going gangbusters again, as people were desperate to get rid of Dollars, and what could you really spend it on in a physical vein?

          1. Maxwell Johnston

            A brief history of the post-Soviet ruble (the only ruble I know):

            The linked chart shows a steady decline from just over 100 to the $ in early 1992 (when the wild times really kicked off) to nearly 6000 by the end of 1997, a depreciation sufficient to wipe out the savings of anyone who wasn’t paying close attention (i.e., most people):

            https://www.statista.com/statistics/1200710/rub-usd-exchange-rate-russia/

            Within this steady decline, there were several sharp panics; I remember one the Yeltsin govt pulled in the summer of either 93 or 94 when it abruptly announced that all ‘old’ (Soviet) ruble notes were no longer valid and had to be exchanged within a certain period of time (and with strict limitations on how many could be exchanged by a single person) into ‘new’ (Russian) ruble notes. It was a confounded mess.

            In early 1998, the Yeltsinites deleted three digits from the ruble, allegedly as a sign of the (new and improved!) stable ruble, now magically a mere 6 or so to the $. My cynical Russian colleagues immediately warned me that this was an awful omen, and they were proven to be painfully correct in August 1998. The ruble crashed from 7 to about 21 during that painful month, then gradually drifted downward a bit more by the end of the year.

            Mirabile dictu, the ruble held fairly steady in the mid-20s to low-30s range vs the mighty $ for the next decade, a brief blip into the mid-30s during the autumn 2008 festivities, then a slight recovery, then a slow gradual drift upwards to the mid-30s until new geopolitical festivities kicked off again in 2014 (Crimea et al), plunging to about 70 during the second half of 2014. Handy chart:

            https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Exchange-rate-of-Russian-ruble-to-US-dollar_fig3_306143871

            The ruble held steady thereafter in the 70s to low 80s until the political festivities kicked off anew following the events of 24-2-22. And then down she went (briefly) to around 130 or so (panic), then appreciated back to 50 or so (stringent capital controls), then drifted back down to the 80s and 90s. A brief panic last November took her down to 115 or so, now she’s back at just under 100: as of this evening, 97.28 Russian clams will buy 1 Yankee clam.

            Whew.

            1. Wukchumni

              Wow, I knew things were dire in regards to how badly the rubble field was, but as you say it’s game over for savers, thanks for playing there’s a consolation prize waiting for you as you leave the building, a bouquet of bupkis.

          2. JBird4049

            Don’t forget the double digit inflation from 1979 into the 80s as Paul Volcker ramped up interest rates ostensibly to bust inflation, but really to bust unions and to break workers’ resistance to corporate control. It was not as bad as in Mexico or in countries like Brazil, but still not good.

            Of course, government statistics were more reliable then compared to now. If the government and the PMC insist on denying reality if inflation does go hyper, the response by the government will be poor and the unrest will be the worse for it.

      2. Roger Boyd

        Wages are rising far ahead of inflation and unemployment is around 2%, so the inflation is no hardship. Real wages, adjusted for inflation, went up 8.4% in 2024 and GDP grew by 4.1%. Unemployment is 2.3%. No hardship, more like goodship.

      3. Tom67

        Putin is not in serious trouble. But moscow cant continue like this forever either. Conscription failed when to many well educated young men fled the country at the beginning of the war and there were riots in Dagestan. Now volunteers get extremely high wages and the rest of the country suffers Inflation. Not as bad a situation as Ukraine is in but also not propitious considering there are now some big cities to be taken with advantages for the Defender. Time ist gettung right to talk me thinks

        1. Anti-Fake-Semite

          Don’t forget about the Ghost of Kiev, “Russian warship F*** off!”, the Battle of Snake Island, the Massacre of Bucha and the Invisible 11,000 North Koreans when bring up the greatest hits of Ukrainian propaganda, Tom.

        2. Ignacio

          It is almost certain that war brings hardships of various classes to Russians. Yet, they probably fear worse hardships if the war stops or pauses before Russia has achieved most of its strategic objectives. The situation in Ukraine is a mirror image: more pressing hardships than in Russia + little hope that any strategic interest or goal of any kind can be achieved.

      4. joinks

        Inflation in Russia is most likely due to a labor shortage coupled with an economy that is fairly robust.

          1. duckies

            This looks like USA today. There’s an obese lady on the stage, an obese guy in uniform pretending to be a lady, and an Ukrainian fiddler on the roof.

    2. Chris Cosmos

      I don’t get why Ukrainian propaganda organs are featured here on this site. What military setback? What economic “hardship.” The Ukranians are fighting to be part of the EU at minimum and NATO at maximum which is why they are so tenacious but they are clearly losing despite the entire Empire supporting them with money, arms, and special ops people.

      1. Yves Smith

        1. Because they make admissions against interest

        2. Because they give you the origin of the crap the US government will later peddle

        If you don’t like an information source, no one is making you read it.

          1. chris

            Fellow Chris, even if our gracious host hadn’t provided you a good answer, I would suggest that knowing what the common wisdom is with respect to this conflict is essential. We’re entering a time where saying the wrong thing online or in person can get you in trouble. We’re also encountering arguments for scary escalation that can’t be rhetorically addressed if we don’t know them. The people who are marinating in the Blue Anon media won’t be able to follow any contrary arguments if you don’t have the knowledge to guide them through an argument.

            As an example, last year I had a conversation where I thoughtlessly threw a comment that Israel and Ukraine are both part of the same imperial conflict right now. Everyone looked at me like I was crazy and didn’t know what I was talking about. It just so happened that one of the people in that conversation contacted me later asking what I meant. I provided my reasoning and the references from “acceptable sources” to support my opinions and then this person thanked me and thought about what I said. They’re now much more curious about what is offered in the media these days. I consider that a win. It would not have been possible without the articles and narrative analysis provided by NC.

  4. The Rev Kev

    “Netanyahu dismisses Palestinian state, suggests Saudis should take Palestinians instead”

    Maybe the Saudis should call Bibi’s bluff and ask him how much he is willing to pay for Saudi Arabia to take each Palestinian. Point out that as Trump has promised them a beautiful home, that Israel would also have to pay for the costs of building a house for each Palestinian family along with the cost of hooking up utilities. Medical treatment for each injured Palestinian as well. Oh, and an annual payment for each Palestinian until they are integrated into Saudi society. Bibi won’t go for it of course because I have noticed that with every grand Israeli plan has to deal with the Palestinians, that Israel always expects some other country or countries to pay for it. It’s always baked into the cake.

    1. ChrisFromGA

      It’s hard to see this going anywhere (Trump’s plan to create a modern Trail of Tears.)

      Trump already walked back part of it – no US money to rebuild Gaza, and no boots on the ground.

      Of course, he can always change his mind but Congress would need to authorize both. The trial balloon caught a bunch of lead after someone yelled “Pull!”

      1. The Rev Kev

        Trump doing a back-flip about US boots on the ground was the deal breaker. That means that it will be up to the IDF to clear the Palestinians out of Gaza but as Hamas is still fighting them after a year and a half, how is all that supposed to work? Trump lost big time pumping what appears to be Jared Kushner’s ideas. It gives ammo to his opponents that reckon that he is not acting like a President but just a real estate huckster. Or maybe this came from Bibi. A small story.

        Back in the 90s the FBI were trying to work out the table of organization of the mob families in New York but nobody was talking for some mysterious reason. So the FBI was reduced to watching who was opening up car doors for who. If a car full of mobsters pulls up and Joey opens the door for Antonio, then likely Antonio is senior to Joe. So I ask you, who is senior here-

        https://x.com/jakeshieldsajj/status/1886931086946574418?mx=2

        1. ChrisFromGA

          Those are some “bad optics” as they like to say in D.C.

          There is also the issue of the Muslim vote. Trump made a big mistake in signing up with Team Genocide. He may not care about those voters, such as those in Dearborn, who helped him send Kamala out to pasture. But, the GOP may care … he hurt Vance or whomever is the GOP nominee in 2028. Plus, the 2026 House elections are coming and he probably knows he’s going to lose the House because of this.

          1. Jabura Basadai

            in a longer clip it is evident that N doesn’t even thank T for the seat assist -not even a nod of gratitude – reinforces RK’s observational metaphor using mobster etiquette – bad optics?, it is pathetic – love it!

        2. Carolinian

          I dropped this Alastair Crooke link (from yesterday) in last night’s cooler but perhaps worth a repeat.

          https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/02/06/the-greatest-geo-political-showmans-inside-out-political-solution/

          Crooke the insider has said some interesting things including that Netanyahu is in poor health and just had a pacemaker implanted. He thinks that Netanyahu and his future are now totally dependent on Trump and the Gaza plan–serious or unserious–was meant to tie Netanyahu’s hands and prevent the planned breaking of the ceasefire and resumption of bombing. He also says that Trump’s new gestures toward Iran and statement that we will not bomb them is totally opposite to Netanyahu’s longstanding desire to start a war between the US and Iran.

          So while nobody knows for sure there is a theory going around that Trump truly wants to disengage from Europe and the Middle East and get himself a Peace Prize to match his rival Obama’s very underserved one. In other words Trump the egotist is not so much out for revenge as for respect which would be the ultimate revenge given Dem and deep state hysteria.

          It’s worth a look.

          1. mrsyk

            My personal opinion is Trump has an eye on “legacy”. How that translates is tricky. He appears weak in the “nuance” and “unintended consequences” departments. IDK, stay tuned I guess.

            1. Carolinian

              Trump’s in his late seventies and when you get to be that age legacy is what you think about (unless you are Biden apparently). Crooke, Larry Johnson and others are just making hopeful guesses but they are plausible guesses and a lot more plausible than those who cling to the Trump/Hitler nonsense. Hitler was in his fifties with decades ahead if he hadn’t shot himself in the mouth.

              I think these speculations are interesting if nothing else.

              1. albrt

                I think Biden was very concerned with his legacy, but Biden never really had the ability to imagine the world from anyone else’s point of view. I think by the end he was so limited that his concept of his legacy was literally just repeating things to himself about his own greatness. Which made all his decisions very easy.

                1. Chris Cosmos

                  Biden’s legacy was and is enriching his family and friends–and, of course, having fun doing it. That is the American dream isn’t it?

                2. Robert Gray

                  > I think Biden was very concerned with his legacy,

                  Tangentially relevant: since JFK died in office, the (six) former presidents who died did so an average of 23 years after leaving power (from LBJ’s four to Carter’s 44). Regardless, they all got the full dog-and-pony show of a glorious state funeral amplified by all mainstream politicians competing to surpass each other in abject fawning. Now, I’m thinking, what if Brandon were to die sooner rather than later, while all the present bitterness and rancour is still in the air? What kind of legacy would we see then?

              2. ChrisFromGA

                It’s interesting but sounds a bit too cope-y for me.

                Could Trump not be serious, just blustering to give Bibi the snow job?

                I do think it is possible. But, at some point, there will be a day when a lie becomes evident. What Trump proposes is an act of brutal violence – forcibly displacing an entire people group, under gunpoint. And there has to be a place for them to go – some country or countries would have to take them.

                To be even a credible threat, you’d need to send aircraft carriers and maybe thousands of US troops and put them right offshore, maybe build another pier but this time a good one.

                If June rolls around and no actual steps to implement this happen, then Netanyahu will realize he’s been taken.

                The part of your comment I can see is that if Netanyahu is in poor health, it may not matter … by then, he’ll need to step down, and Trump can just say “never mind.”

                1. Carolinian

                  “To be even a credible threat”

                  Meaning, according to my link, it isn’t credible and never was. The Trumpies have already walked back the no Palestinian return assertion, the American troops on the ground question, the America pays for the reconstruction implication. Nobody supports this except Jared and Jared’s grinning friend Bibi but Bibi has accepted it and to continue to do so must finish the ceasefire agreement. If he doesn’t he could be accused of killing Trump’s dream of peace and lose his arsenal.

                  1. Bill B

                    What is Trump’s dream of peace and how will he accomplish it? Achieving a permanent ceasefire and then disengaging, allowing Gazans to return home and do the best they can, with other countries’ aid (but not UNRWA’s)? “Is there nonetheless some substance sedimented within Trump’s comment that any Palestinian state must be resolved ‘in some other way’ than the Two-State formula? Maybe. We should not discount Trump’s strong leanings towards Israel.” If Trump really doesn’t want ethnic cleansing and can somehow solve this in a way that’s just for the Palestinians, I’d like to know some more details. Maybe he’ll deserve his peace prize, I just think it’s a very long shot.

          2. JohnA

            The Norwegian Nobel Peace Prize committee ruefully admitted apropos Obama, that there is no mechanism for withdrawing an award. When it comes to potential US recipients, I suspect it is once bitten twice shy for the Norwegian committee. Plus Trump has already signed off more bombing in Africa since his inauguration.

            1. Carolinian

              Well it doesn’t matter whether they would really do it as long as he may think that they would do it. And if he brings peace he would deserve it.

              The people speculating about this are not mere nobodies. Gilbert Doctorow lived and worked in Russia. Crooke was a diplomat. Larry Johnson was CIA.

              What we do know with certaintly is that the US MIC are against peace and always have been. We thought we got rid of them after Vietnam but no such luck.

          3. Bill B

            Maybe Trump is playing 3D chess (he’s a “complicated” guy), but on the face of it I have to ask just how is supporting ethnic cleansing (just as Blinken starting doing fairly soon after Oct 7) going to get him a peace prize, and respect?

        3. bertl

          ” If a car full of mobsters pulls up and Joey opens the door for Antonio, then likely Antonio is senior to Joe. So I ask you, who is senior here”

          Trump was so convincing at the Bibi press conference (with a weakened Bibi standing in some discomfort) when he started talking about the US taking over Gaza, but without the hint of nod and wink in his body language to say, “only joking”. And the gracious act with Bibi’s chair was the final act of kindness a mob boss would make to an underling before he walks out of the door to his death.

          After a long think and listening to the conversation with Alistair Crooke and Mohammad Mirandi on Dimitri Sime Jnr’s show, I’ve come to the conclusion that Trump is an actor of Olivier-like proportions and his contribution to the performing arts alone should result in the award of a Nobel Prize: https://x.com/NewRulesGeo/status/1887535802626023526?s=19

        1. ChrisFromGA

          I’m thinking that we may have passed peak schlock & jawbone, as Trump’s assault on government appears to have been slowed down by the judiciary. He may become a lame duck faster than many think.

          1. Wukchumni

            A fortnight in and the sniveling Donkey Show has been throwing up Chuck to counter Trump’s thrusts-with his gambit being to throw uncooked spaghetti against the wall and hoping something sticks, while his minions are running roughshod as quick as possible through the works like so many spanners, before the court can have its say.

            This obviously is not going to end well, but at least Donald has a lot of experience with bankrupting companies and stiffing those associated in many ways with said companies, so he’s accomplished, with a steady hand on the tiller.

            1. Pat

              It is really bad when Jon Stewart points out how useless and ineffective the Democratic response consisting of putting Chuck on the News and social media with his reading glasses halfway down his nose reading some half baked statement is.

      2. Chris Cosmos

        This is a question I have been asking recently: so what is the alternative? Two-state solution is impossible and so is the one state solution (my preference). So what is the alternative? More people living in rubble? Building back Gaza only to have the same thing happen over and over and over and over again? Trump’s plan is the only realistic plan I’ve heard–maybe someone has other ideas–but I haven’t heard them. And don’t say the Israelis shouldn’t be killing Palestinians because that cannot change without major change such that Israelis start considering that Arabs are people not animals and, also, that US Zionist Jews stop dominating FP, the media, and show biz. Good luck with that.

    2. Mikel

      “that Israel always expects some other country or countries to pay for it. It’s always baked into the cake”

      The gangsta way.

    3. flora

      I give every president a honeymoon period when they start. Even W. Even T at the start of his second non-consecutive term. Welp, that honeymoon period is over, didn’t even last a month. Between the idea of expelling the Gazans from Gaza and banking on crypto to revive the US finances instead of something like increased manufacturing . . . I’m done. I hope he does close the border, stops the Ukr war, dismantles USaid. Those things aren’t nothing. If the plan is to reduce the size of the administrative state by replacing civil servants with private contractors the possible corruption in such patronage contracts is enormous. If only there was an opposition party.

  5. Wukchumni

    Donald Trump Jr Says Crypto Is the ‘Future of American Hegemony’ CoinDesk
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    When Latin American countries were going through their financial death throes in the 80’s & 90’s, they all pretty much decided the way out was to get rid of their national currency which had been around for 150 years, and rename their currencies, kind of similar to what the First Son is proposing, albeit in a different guise.

    We already have the glaring differences between the have everything types and have nothing homeless living not too far away from one another in our ad hoc camping out favelas that resemble those in Latin America, why not do something similar with our National currency!

    Here’s how it went down:

    Argentina Peso Ley from 1970 to 1983, replaced by Peso Argentina 1983 to 1985 (you needed 10,000 Peso Ley to equal 1 Peso Argentina, replaced by Astral 1985 to 1991 (you needed 1,000 Peso Argentina to equal 1 Astral) replaced by Peso Convertible (you needed 10,000 Austral to equal 1 Peso Convertible)

    Bolivia Peso Boliviano from 1963 to 1986 was replaced by the Second Boliviano from 1987 onwards (1,000,000 Boliviano equal 1 Second Boliviano)

    Brazil Cruzeiro from 1970 to 1986, replaced by Cruzado 1986 to 1989 (you needed 1,000 Cruzeiros to equal 1 Cruzado) replaced by Cruzado Novo (you needed 1,000 Cruzados to equal 1 Cruzado Novo) replaced by Cruzeiro Real from 1993 to 1994 (you needed 1,000 Cruzado Novo to equal 1 Cruzeiro Real) and replaced from 1994 onwards by the Real (you needed 2,750 Cruzeiro Real to equal 1 Real)

    Ecuador Sucre from 1884 to 2000, replaced by the US Dollar (you needed 25,000 Sucres to equal 1 US Dollar)

    Peru Sol from 1863 to 1985 replaced by the Inti from 1985 to 1991 (1,000 Soles equaled 1 Inti) replaced by the Sol Nuevo 1991 to present (1,000,000 Intis equaled 1 Sol Nuevo)

    Venezuela Bolivar from 1879 to 2008 replaced by the Bolivar Fuerte from 2008 onwards (1,000 Bolivars equal 1 Bolivar Fuerte) replaced by the Bolivar Soberano from 2018 onwards (100,000 Bolivar Fuerte equals 1 Bolivar Soberano)

    When I did retail physical foreign exchange in the 1980’s and 90’s in LA, there was essentially no market for these currencies-you didn’t want any position in any of them, and the wholesalers felt the same way, they were like cash orphans where something useful-blank pieces of paper had been rendered useless by printing on both sides.

    1. griffen

      Gibson is sounding quite right…the future is here and all….btw, Don Jr is basically telling the world this is the new and improved digital version of Billy Beer ?!?

      They meaning the crypto bros want regulation* and on the other hand….more regulations means it is much less or perhaps unlikely to be so secretive ( more the case in say 2014, compared to today ) and speculative….I still tend towards Dutch tulip bulbs as opposed to an Edison and the incandescent light bulb…however I suggest Bitcoin may prove more a long term investment, prospectively so, since I can’t know the future and all

      And on CNBC this week I caught parts of a live interview with one of these crypto brethren, didn’t recognize him at all but he said in basic terms the following, I’ll paraphrase. ” Regulators aren’t permitted to hold or own Bitcoin or cryptocurrency, so they can’t understand that market…”. Oh that’s very enlightened, tell us more (!)

      1. Wukchumni

        Those rather lopsided rates of exchange for the emperors new money in Latin America back in the day would jive nicely with the current spot price for Bitcoin @ $98,823.04.

        Turn in your million bucks in long green, cold cash, greenback dollars, semollians and or sawbucks and get a little over 10 Bitcoins. (this offer void after a week, whereupon the Dollar will be rendered null and void)

        Coincidentally, any debts domestic and/or foreign in old money are now considered also null and void.

        1. The Rev Kev

          Waiting until you can pay your taxes with Bitcoin. That is one way of confirming that a currency is real or not – whether you can use it to pay your taxes with.

              1. Wukchumni

                To be fair, nationalistic currencies are a quaint relic of the past, and back in the day were a way to familiarize the populace with the king or queen’s portrait on them, a practice started by the ancient Romans, and still going on to this day in the UK, NZ, Australia, Denmark, Norway and Sweden on coins of the realm.

                1 currency for the whole world isn’t that big of a leap from the Euro replacing national currencies, but Bitcoin being the usurper to the crown?

                1. mrsyk

                  This would mean discarding the power of controlling the treasury and issuing fiat. That’s a pro-level wager.

              1. mrsyk

                I don’t know. I’m wondering if it means Colorado is queued up to join an emerging “Mr Lee’s Greater Hong Kong”.

                1. mrsyk

                  Which leads me to wonder if there’s a play here to crush state level resistance. Say the dollar is tanked. What of the difference between states that have a bitcoin stockpile and those that don’t?

                  1. Wukchumni

                    My sole retail experience was a store called U-Wash-Doggie in Mammoth.Ca. about 6 years ago that had in the store window a small sign that read:

                    ‘We accept Bitcoin for payment’

                    That’s it, the only retail establishment i’ve seen in that regard.

                    1. Milton

                      The Mobile gas station by my home accepted btc for a few months in 2019. The price was around $5000 at that time. So the owner is either swimming in it or was dumb like me and sold everything when the price was low.

              2. skippy

                Back in the early 90s there was a huge amount of restructuring M&A occurring in Calif. This kicked off a Tsunami of econ refugees and Tech comps like Storage Tech to CO around Denver/Boulder corridor.

                Hence Colorado has a IT/Tech history going back till then, them having a finger in the pie just in case and early mover thingy applies here.

          1. flora

            Catherine Austin Fills refers to bitcoin as a Ponzi scheme. And why not? It’s rising because people think it will continue to rise because it’s rising. Otherwise, there is no there there. Casino Don wants in on the action. / ;)

            The Great Bitcoin Re$et.

            1. mrsyk

              I’ve read that a god’s authority is dependent on faith. Trump is the king of tent revivalists. That’s all I got for now.

              1. flora

                Heh. I seem to remember the US govt (failure to respond to many reports of fraud) and stock ratings agencies (giving high ratings to CDOs) indirectly backed the subprime mortgage CDOs ponzi. When that imploded we got the GFC and the bank bailouts. / ;)

                Tulip bulb bubble.
                South Sea Company bubble.

                Bubbles ‘R US.

                1. Wukchumni

                  When you see reference to a new paradigm you should always, under all circumstances, take cover. Because ever since the great tulipmania in 1637, speculation has always been covered by a new paradigm. There was never a paradigm so new and so wonderful as the one that covered John Law and the South Sea Bubble — until the day of disaster.

                  John Kenneth Galbraith

        2. Mikel

          Again, you always talk about countries and never talk about that those were countries with debts denominated in foreign currencies.

          It’s the kind of omissions the crypto bros have relied on..

          1. Wukchumni

            I can make history rhyme but not necessarily make reason out of it…

            There’s no mechanism for hyperinflation under the auspices of there being no prop such as coins or paper money to indicate somebody is horribly wrong, and were you to take our $36 trillion debt and turn it into Benjamins, that’d be 360 billion of them out in circulation, yowza, we’d start seeing $500’s, $1000’s, $5,000’s and $10,000 again toot suite.

            Using Bitcoin as a financial fulcrum is absurd as all of the Bitcoins existent are trading Bitcoins, not Bitcoins that have any function other than hacking hostage demands and illicit goods that Visa or American Express would never allow you to make purchase with their plastic.

            And yet, here we are on the edge of the oddest of precipices looking down from 98 feet up.

            1. JP

              That 36 trillion is in circulation. Not all as currency. That debt is our national accumulated wealth. Dollar fiat currency is one side of a balance sheet.

              Bitcoin, bitcon has no balance. To use bitcoin as currency would mean most transactions would not end up being converted one way or another to a (real) currency. In order for property to be valued in bitcoin banks will have to be able to lend it without automatically converting to dollars. That would require FED involvement.

              Currently the value of bitcoin is in who gets caught holding the bag. And what is the current turn around cost of converting bitcoin out of and into a (real) currency?

              1. FredW

                “And what is the current turn around cost of converting bitcoin out of and into a (real) currency?”

                Price to convert any amount of bitcoin to USD as of 4:21 pm PST Friday is $0.41. Takes about 10 minutes to any place in the world. https://mempool.space/

              1. skippy

                Classic Hyperinflation occurs due to impaired trade dynamics – in the first order effect – Gov/FX markets are second order effects.

                The Institute for New Economic Thinking has several posts on this topic.

                1. JP

                  Working my way through the Michealmas link below, which is mostly above my pay grade but I think over estimates the elasticity of manufacturing.

                  I will check out the Institute for New Economic Thinking, thanks.

                  1. skippy

                    I would submit the issue about elasticity of Mfg is more about what level of State involvement is driving it, U.S. vs China methods, past/currant/potential trading partners, and lastly due to burgeoning multipolarity an option to hegemony of the past and new choices.

                    My own opinion is China is doing nation building not seen very often in history. Per se in the U.S. the road system was built for WWII and some other stuff but, this is everything all at once. Freaking out some rusted on ideological sorts in the West as it shows what a State can do and not just leave everything to investors – especial absentee sorts.

        3. Mikel

          “Coincidentally, any debts domestic and/or foreign in old money are now considered also null and void.”

          Mortgages null and void? Car payments?
          Do tell that to the bankers.

          1. Wukchumni

            Hyperinflation is good for those with big debts, so we stiff the rest of the world for the big bickies, and throw a bone to those at home.

            Populists gotta do populist stuff occasionally.

            1. Mikel

              That can be done without changing currencies. Still would have a level a chaos…without as many killed from the results.
              So…why the completely psycho way to go about a debt jubilee?

              1. Wukchumni

                Layers of obfuscation and you can blame it all on some rather anonymous Japanese chap nobody seems to be able to locate.

                1. skippy

                  Digital Capitalism [waves at B. Gates] is a boon to Humanity mate, unleashing the power of the day trader at home …. The Market will provide too each individuals needs and wants[tm] …. twas written …

    2. NotThePilot

      Yup, no matter what else happens in the short-term, simple things like this crypto obsession are what make me 99% certain Trump 2: The Trumpening will include the US economy crashing into the ground.

      1. mrsyk

        Which brings to mind the question “What of the dollar?” Does it adopt some foreign currency features if the debt issuer starts working with a parallel currency?
        I would expect Trump to explore ways to eliminate US Debt on the cheap. Does he see a plausible scenario here? I’m on record opining he’s weak in recognizing unintended consequences.

        1. Mikel

          The USA’s problem is the priorities and the ideologies.
          It can’t think it’s way out of asset bubble solutions.

          1. mrsyk

            Bubbles are a feature not a bug. What we can’t do is tame our addiction to quick profit. “Dollar and a dream”, lol, the lotto motto not so long ago.

            1. Parker Dooley

              I was strolling through the Gainesville UF campus recently and came upon “The Center for Compressible MultiphaseTurbulence.” Apparently applicable to the study of (actual) bubbles. Check it out.

        2. Michaelmas

          I would expect Trump to explore ways to eliminate US Debt on the cheap.

          If you haven’t, see the Bloomberg piece linked to above: ‘Bessent’s Goals Won’t Work Unless DOGE Does, Too John Authers, Bloomberg. The deck: “It’s becoming clear how much the Trump economic plan needs significant federal spending cuts.”

          Also, if you haven’t, A User’s Guide to Global Trading System by Stephen Miran at Hudson Bay Capital (Nov. 2024) which seems to be the manual the sophisticated finance guys in the Trump administration, like are using —
          https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf

          It’s far more sophisticated and intellectually specific than Trump’s simple-minded claim that the US can have the global reserve currency without running trade deficits, and the aim to drive down US Debt on the cheap, as you say, is in there.

          Nevertheless, it still seems more of the same ‘we can have our cake and eat it too-six impossible things before breakfast’ that characterizes Trump era thinking, which reality is unlikely to oblige.

          1. mrsyk

            I’m about halfway through that Hudson Bay piece and now fully enjoying your “have our cake and eat it too” quip.

          2. Milton

            I’d like to see Trump go completely off the rails and institute a debt jubilee ala Hammurabi. And in the future, historians will debate how a “tyrant” briefly ruled the US and delivered its serfs from bondage.

  6. Mikerw0

    Early in my career I had deep involvement working in a Fortune 100 Industrial, yes we had industrial companies in days past. One of my responsibilities was managing the capital planning process for the Board, which included IT, both business and process. The process of building and maintaining systems was carefully thought through. A big reason, if one now steps back and thinks about it is where the liability (albeit implicit) lay. It lay with our IT department.

    Today, we have insulted tech companies, and almost any other player, from liability. My banking systems stinks and was hacked. So sorry. Oh, your credit card, X account, etc., was hacked go read the fine print. It’s your problem. We can’t be bothered to invest and design products that work properly, if we even know how they work, maintain them, etc.

    Take that mentality into complex, critical government systems (payment systems, FAA, NOAA, DoE, etc, and things will collapse. I know that is what our tech oligarchs want, but really?

    1. Carolinian

      Why would they want that? People like Musk and Bezos are dependent on govt. Why kill the Golden Goose?

      Some of us would contend that those govt dependent Silicon Valley libertarians only became interested in politics when Dems started threatening them unless they censored Putin etc.

    2. Jason Boxman

      Was also considering what Lambert has said about “code-as-law”, where whatever the law actually is, in practice it is whatever is coded into the systems. What’s the court gonna do, arrest someone? Maybe there’s a fine, a cost of doing business.

  7. The Rev Kev

    “Donald Trump Jr Says Crypto Is the ‘Future of American Hegemony”

    Donald Trump Jr: ‘China’s industrial powerhouse and Russia continent size of natural resources is no match for America’s ones and zeroes!’

  8. Louis Fyne

    re. plastics in brain…

    this tidbit from the study, begging for a study for confirmation—-autopsy samples suggest that the amount of microplastics in the brain equals a plastic spoon!!??!!

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-024-03453-1

    I’d also add…..polyester air pollution. I put a cotton cheesecloth bag over the dryer vent. It’s unbelievable how much lint that it catches over a couple of weeks. The dryer’s actual lint filter (likely geared for cotton lint) catches nothing compared to the amount of lint caught via the cheesecloth.

    So if you ever walk past a laundromat or past your home dryer vent in action—-hold your breath!

    1. mrsyk

      I put a cotton cheesecloth bag over the dryer vent., ha, I do this as well. We’ve weeded out most of the synthetic fiber from our launderable (that’s a word in mrsyk’s world, spellcheck) goods as well.

      1. Bsn

        When I lived overseas where people still hang their clothes out to dry, they were confused as to why Americans have, and even use clothes dryers. They asked what do you think the “lint” is. I responded, well, it’s lint. They replied, no, it’s your clothes. I still wear blouses that I’ve had for 20 years – now they’re cool again and “retro”. Save >$500.00, save on energy, and save your clothes = don’t buy or use a dryer.

        1. fringe element

          Much as I would love to, also impossible to deploy an outdoor clothesline if one lives in an upstairs apartment with no access to a patch of ground on which to place the thing.

  9. timo maas

    Wind propulsion now a force to be reckoned with Seatrade Maritime.

    In the whole article, the word “sails” appears zero times.

  10. The Rev Kev

    “China can detect US Seawolf-class submarine with magnetic wake tracking: study”

    If this is true, then maybe the age of torpedo-firing submarines is coming to a close and what will replace it will be ballistic missiles fired from a distance. This article did not mention the range of such detectors but I would guess that they would not be great.

    1. CA

      The Chinese have been working on ocean-undersea exploration, mapping and detection for years.

      https://english.news.cn/20250205/e5fd4da482ad4eaf9644eb6abb405d58/c.html

      February 5, 2025

      Chinese scientists advance development of High-energy Underwater Neutrino Telescope

      BEIJING — Chinese scientists have successfully launched a detector prototype for the High-energy Underwater Neutrino Telescope (HUNT) into the South China Sea, the Institute of High Energy Physics (IHEP) under the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) announced Wednesday.

      The institute said the scientific research ship Tansuo-3 and the manned submersible Shenhai Yongshi (Deep Sea Warrior) helped precisely deploy the detectors at a predetermined location 1,600 meters below sea level.

      According to the IHEP, the detectors were also successfully connected to China’s undersea scientific observation network, a major national scientific and technological infrastructure.

      Neutrinos are highly penetrating particles that carry primordial information. Thus, they are an effective tool for studying the origins of high-energy cosmic rays and the evolution of celestial bodies.

      Chinese scientists have proposed the next-generation HUNT as a large-scale scientific device expected to lead the development of neutrino astronomy. The South China Sea is the only viable site for the telescope in China, which will cover approximately 600 square kilometers of sea area…

    2. CA

      https://english.news.cn/20241024/38737e5322d54a03926070ba3f3c0ad0/c.html

      October 24, 2024

      Chinese researchers build autonomous underwater vehicle for deep-sea microbial sampling

      TIANJIN — Researchers from Tianjin University have made a breakthrough in marine biological research with the development of the country’s first autonomous underwater vehicle designed for deep-sea microbial sampling.

      They have conducted comprehensive tests on the performance and functionality of the vehicle at various depths of less than 1,000 meters in the South China Sea, achieving in-situ sampling and high-fidelity preservation of deep-sea microbial genes. The related project was reviewed and approved recently by experts from the Laoshan Laboratory…

    3. thump

      The work described in the article seems to be theoretical, showing that magnetic fields produced by submarine wake are at levels detectable if you’re physically in the wake. The article says submarine wakes produce magnetic fields through motion of ions in seawater, which might well be the case. However, I would guess those same ions in seawater would also quickly damp propagation of these fields, so that detecting them above the surface would be much more difficult. Before getting too excited about this study, I would like to see this question addressed, and an actual submarine detection using this method. (I have a background in physics, but not specialized in this area.)

    4. scott s.

      In my day we tracked submarines using the magnetic field of the sub itself, using equipment known as Magnetic Anomaly Detection or MAD. The sensors were airborne on P-3 and H-2/H-3 helos. The detection range was pretty limited (you pretty much needed to fly right over it) so you needed some other means (typically acoustic) to get the ballpark location, then flew a search pattern. Not sure what kind of sensor and range you need for wake detection.

      Of course sub-launched cruise missiles have been a thing since the 70s. As far as ballistic missiles, how does your sub launcher get targeting data? Puts up an antenna? Can’t see an organic sensor as providing that.

      1. LifelongLib

        This is way out of my range, but I saw a story several years ago that submarine wake detection has long been theoretically possible, but that until recently (at the time of the story) the computer power to do so in real time was lacking. There, I have exhausted my “knowledge” of submarine wakes!

  11. Wukchumni

    Why the water Trump ordered released in California won’t help Los Angeles firefighting CBS
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    It was kind of a signature Trump move, blurt out something stupid bordering on nonsensical at a press conference in Pacific Palisades, and back it up with water from Potemkin pillage.

    1. JP

      Like so many things Trump, it was a publicity stunt. I heard one farmer say it didn’t go to waste because it would recharge the aquifer. One the contrary it never left the river because none of the irrigation districts were informed and no one was irrigating. I had one friend tell me it knocked down some of their temporary riparian grazing fencing. That said, it was not a very large release and should not have an outsized affect on summer allocations. It was a publicity stunt.

  12. Mikel

    No guarantees for Netanyahu during Trump meeting: Israeli media – Al Mayadeen

    By that account, he probably should get rid of the golden pager.

    1. Mikerw0

      It probably has a bug in it so the Mossad can listen it. Though I’m sure they’ve installed deep listening spyware on his phones.

      1. Duke of Prunes

        Based on the recent Hezbolla experience, I’d be very wary of accepting gift pagers from Israel. Seems like they have a reputation for rapid scheduled disassembly

    2. The Rev Kev

      That article finished with the following-

      ‘An Israeli source told the Israeli news website that the second phase of the deal would proceed only if Hamas agreed to give up control of Gaza.’

      So how does that work out? Who fills the vacuum of leadership? Israel wants locals to step up and become leaders but what makes the Israelis think that they would be any better? And which Gazan wants to be that sort of leader when the Israelis will likely bomb them if they don’t sell out their fellow Gazans. Trying to bring in people from the Palestinian Authority to rule over them is only a quick way for them to get killed. Will the Israelis go for direct rule? Kinda risky at the moment.

      1. Chas

        To be fair, if Israel wants Hamas to give up control of Gaza then Israel’s ruling coalition should give up control of Israel.

      2. Carolinian

        And Israeli sources are always dependable and honest? Bibi has to spin the Trump meeting his way. Then there are the facts on the ground…..

  13. mrsyk

    “Doctor investigated after smuggling his pet cat into hospital for CAT scan”, His cat took a six story fall. After the scan and assessment, Taking her to a free operating table, he drained the liquid from her lungs – allowing her to breathe and saving her life.
    Mission accomplished, so sue me.

      1. IM Doc

        This reminds me of something completely offhand – but pertinent to our current situation in our culture.

        Where I went to medical school – just down the street was the Veterinary Medicine School. They actually make very large CT scanners for animals like gigantic cows and horses – many times the weight of a normal human.

        Interestingly, it was noted about 10-15 years ago when the massive obesity epidemic really started in with the patients that were 400 lbs and up – that the gears would be stripped to the metal on ordinary human CT scanners which were meant for up to about 300 lbs or so.

        So there was a time about for decades or so when these massively obese patients had to be transported to the vet school to use the cow and horse CT or MRI. This would never have been dreamed of when I started medicine.

        I would say that is a cultural commentary.

        1. PlutoniumKun

          My cousin used to be a senior nurse in NY and at one stage was a specialist in a ward for super obese people (everything had been built to deal with their size) – in one case they had to literally remove the wall of a house to get a young man to hospital. She said that all the super obese young people she dealt with had one common variable – a mentally ill mother.

          On the subject of vet/doc overlap, a few years ago I was on a break in Spain with friends, one of whom is an ER surgeon. The lady who owned the house we rented was upset by a feral cat daily visitor, who had a horrible gaping wound on its face. He would come for food, but was impossible to catch. My friend just went to the pharmacy for a prescription for human antibiotics and added them to the cat food. Surprisingly enough, it worked, the cats face was much better after two days. The owner was so grateful she made us an amazing dinner.

  14. griffen

    Power napping and I will include power walking, as valid options. During early to middle February there are some days like this week* for example, as the sun dares to shine longer than just one week ago and temps start to tempt every inner teen to skip out on class or in this case…another group call or meeting on MS Teams.

    Temps for the coming weekend may touch low 70s hereabouts in South Carolina…too good to last however. Come the national holiday this Monday, the Sick Day After Super Bowl night, those temps slide backwards again. Mark it down, millions are gonna be “suddenly sick” by 9am eastern this coming Monday.

  15. The Rev Kev

    “How huge parts of the U.S. could become uninhabitable within decades — even so-called ‘climate havens’’

    Keep on saying it but in places like Arizona, they will start to have to move their towns and homes underground. Other places have done it. Yes, it can be expensive but when the only other option is to abandon those heat zones, what choice is there? And by the sounds of that article, there will be fewer places that you can move to and certainly the wealthy would buy it all up first.

    1. Carolinian

      My friends in AZ are more worried about running out of water. They did finally get some rain the other day.

      1. Louis Fyne

        AZ has (relatively) plenty of water…it’s just that the farmers have the bulk of the allocation.

        if there was no farms in AZ (a/k/a no a lot less US winter produce), there would be plenty of water (within the confines of the Colorado River allocations).

        1. mrsyk

          “within decades”, lol, you all know what I’ve got to say on that. Hopefully I’m the fool on the hill.

    2. Jason Boxman

      It’s always been mind bending to me, that this has been one of the fastest growing regions in America. I knew when I first belatedly read about Climate in 2004 in the NY Times that we were all screwed. Capitalists gonna capitalist. I wasn’t even basically a socialist then, just a deluded liberal Democrat, but even I saw the writing on the wall.

      On this, I like to apply the suicide test:

      Mikhail Chester, a climate adaptation and infrastructure expert from Arizona State University, highlights the long-term consequences of these changes. “Will things get worse? Yes, they will. I mean, we’re already seeing that,” he says. One of the simple reasons why things will get worse is because we haven’t immediately solved the climate change problem, and we’re still behaving in the same way we’ve done for decades: “So I drove my kids to school today in a gasoline car and I put CO2 into the atmosphere. And that will be there for 100 years.”

      If you kill yourself and Climate still happens, was there anything you could have meaningfully contributed to stop this?

      If the answer is no, then the shape of this world ain’t on you. Isn’t your fault, there’s nothing you can do.

      At this point, things are going to unfold as they will. The rapacious elite are too busy gratifying themselves to even have any idea how to govern, if they even cared to do so. There’s no magic pony that’s gonna save us, although many might beg for it from Musk or some other almost-trillionaire over the next 25 years. (And that will probably go just great btw)

      This year is gonna be lit, no doubt!

      Phoenix isn’t the only city in the Southwest grappling with extreme heat and water shortages. Las Vegas and Los Angeles are also feeling the strain as the Colorado River — a lifeblood for millions in the region — shrinks due to rising temperatures, overuse, and a lack of snow migrating down from the Rocky Mountains. Without drastic changes to water management and conservation, these cities could face unsustainable conditions in the decades ahead.

      This was obvious to me over 20 years ago. This is the stupidest timeline.

      The only thing that’s gonna stop migration to Florida, for example, is lack of insurance affordability. Insurers are gonna stop that party. Not common sense about Climate disasters.

      That means that even though cities like Phoenix are experiencing more extreme weather right now, it’s also “much more appropriately designed for our extremes,” Chester adds, so “we tend to have fewer failures. We tend to have better reliability of our services.” Asphalt mixtures have been more thoughtfully designed. Power lines run underground, rather than through the air like in New York, where they are more vulnerable to being taken out by wind during a violent storm.

      Until energy demand during the forever summer overloads the grid, then people gonna be mass dying. Maybe that’ll be the end of any influx of population, when power failures lead to mass death?

    3. albrt

      I live in Arizona – one of the points from the article is that we are more prepared to deal with increased heat here, not just because most middle class houses have air conditioning, but because of newer infrastructure.

      I’m not saying things will be pleasant here, but it is not at all clear how things will play out, and in what order.

    4. Jason Boxman

      For Chester, climate action isn’t just about economics; it’s about setting an example. He put solar panels on his house — not necessarily to save money but to send a message to his children. He wants them to know “this is something we do. This is important,” he says.

      Chester underscores the personal stakes of taking action now: “If my kids — three, five, and seven — live to the average age, they should be alive at 2100 at the end of the century. The decisions that we are making today will set them up for success or failure on the planet.”

      (bold mine)

      So, performative.

      If you aren’t calling for an end to capitalism, you’re just engaged in wankery. Full stop.

      Really though, I imagine at this point a coherent response to Climate would necessitate a similar complete reorganization of society like in Three Body Problem, where the singular aim of humanity became building interstellar defense systems, and most of the world’s population starved due to lack of resource availability.

      I don’t think there’s any threading the needle on this. We can’t both have rapacious capitalism, and Climate mitigation that prevents an extinction level event.

      1. Raymond Carter

        The changes in behavior required to stop global warming in its tracks would amount to little more than everyone agreeing to a little inconvenience– less consumption, fewer trips, fewer items of clothing, smaller cars, etc.

        It’s amazing to me how this OBVIOUS solution is never discussed. Nothing is required other than a collective agreement to suffer a bit of inconvenience in order to address this problem.

        The problem isn’t capitalism or any other “system.” It’s just mindless consumption that’s the problem.

        Having said that, maybe capitalism is the reason it’s never discussed. Lower consumption would not be good for the 1%.

        1. Camacho

          It is not about little inconvenience for everyone, unless you redefine everyone to exclude some people from the people (which is in line with the western way of thinking). Those living in poverty, or on the edge of it, don’t have much convenience to reduce.

          It is the capitalist way to share the blame and keep the benefits, aka privatize profits and socialize lossess, aka privatize gains and socialize risks.

    5. cfraenkel

      Humans might be able to retreat underground, given wealth and electricity, but at some point (possibly before the turn of the century) there will be *nothing* alive on the surface when it gets too hot for the chemistry of cellular respiration…. no bugs, no cactus, no bacteria. Nothing will grow in the soil, as the worms and microbes needed by the roots are all dead. It will be more desolate than Death Valley, and I don’t see people lining up to move there.

      1. Carolinian

        Traditional adobe houses with their thick mud and straw walls are a kind of living underground. In Phoenix though new housing follows the cheap and efficient stick built system and might as well be in SC. Here a gang can frame a house in a couple of days.

        It’s practical in AZ if you have the money to pay for air conditioning and the electricity to run it.

        Of course people who live in northern states pay quite a lot to get through the winter.

        1. Wukchumni

          They didn’t seem to appreciate shade all that much @ Chaco Canyon where the 6 Great Houses were built in the open, compared to say Mesa Verde later on where they built in the cliffs for both less Sun exposure and exposure to enemies, when climate change came calling.

    6. GramSci

      That was an odd article. My eye went immediately to the dark black dot that was Menominee County in the black forest that was northern Wisconsin. Economic Armageddon the article said. But the only economic engine of the northern deciduous forest seems to be mosquito repellent sales, and heat/humidity would seem to *boost* that sector. Otherwise, Menominee County is 99%(?) indian reservation. Climate change is bad for the casino business?

      I went to the underlying article at ProPublica, which didn’t seem up to their usual standard. Meh.

    1. MaryLand

      Looking to each other for courage and support sounds like what people would do when under attack. Huddle together as the end comes. Amfortas has much better advice.

    2. griffen

      After the impact of hurricane Helene this past Sept and early October, here in the Carolinas things went sideways in a manner of speaking, just more orderly. For a few business days after and following many locations for gas or groceries went cash only, as systems were generally offline.

      I’m in South Carolina, the worst brunt we received was high winds here damaging pine trees and strangling power lines when those fell across them lines of high voltage juice. My nearby location steered clear of wide damages it seems, but Western NC is a mere 60 or so minutes driving time away was thoroughly slammed. For that Saturday and the following week a lot of the experience felt like real time repeat from oh, March – April 2020 or so…

      Generators were in high demand and so was basic need for either propane or maybe gas to run them…I don’t own a generator myself. Most of the local citizenry seemed to have held up overall, exceptions for knuckleheads notwithstanding.

  16. Jason Boxman

    So while groups go to court to stop him, Musk is establishing facts on the ground. Whatever his aims, he’s got the data. I doubt much anyone can stop him, unless he’s actually jailed until all copies of said data are destroyed and confirmed no longer in his possession or any of his associates.

    Good luck with that.

    This round won by the techoligarchy/DOGE.

    1. curlydan

      Maybe a jujitsu move is in order. Instead of complaining about Musk’s invasive tactics, start complaining that he’s not investigating the biggest frauds of them all: DoD and Medicare Advantage.

    2. nyleta

      I wonder how on earth Mr Musk thinks he can stay as a serious business person anywhere in the world after this. As soon as the electoral tables are once again turned he will be pursued to the ends of the earth by a Democrat administration. I don’t see how applying for political asylum in China even could protect him.

      Tesla is already looking shaky ,what is his end game and how would he sustain it if he has one ? Surely not just Space X ?

      1. Camacho

        Egomaniacs do not consider failure as an option. Even better example of god complex in action is Prigozhin, and his march onto Moscow.

    3. Lambert Strether Post author

      > Whatever his aims, he’s got the data

      My best is he’ll stick a back end on the existing back end to (1) prevent checks from going through based on properties of the checks; (2 put “it all” on the blockchain.

    4. SocalJimObjects

      Where’s the Deep State and why aren’t they stopping Elon? Will Elon be exposed as the head of the Illuminati?

  17. Watt4Bob

    Cory Doctorow’s explanation of MLM’s predatory business model as it relates to Naomi Klien’s “mirror world” of right wing and conspiratorial beliefs does little to explain how we might attack this problem.

    IMHO, beating the Oligarch/Robber Barrons would require solidarity with the 50% or more of the working class that that holds those sort of beliefs, and coincidently, finds itself the target/victim of MLMs.

    “Nonsense like this is why Klein’s “mirror world” is so important: unless you understand the mirror world, you can end up believing that “progressive” just means “defending anything the right hates.”

    The bold is mine, I believe He sells this key point much too softly.

    A very large portion of the working class does not see their interests reflected in the supposed efforts of self-identified “progressives’, or the labels on the idpol silos.

    So, when do you think we can expect “progressives” to start basing their efforts, (what they are supposedly ‘fighting’ for) on understanding and acknowledging that the “mirror world” has resulted in everyone’s, not just the other guy’s vision being warped.

    As opposed to doubling down on cheerleading for everything the right hates?

    1. Chris Cosmos

      Progressives, or as the late Alex Cockburn used to say “pwogwessive” have no interest in the lower-middle class (as they would term it) with their guns and religion. They consist of the PMC who are, at best, Eisenhower Republicans in aspiration but are really just self-righteous Babbits.

      1. JP

        That is not defining progressive ideology. That is labeling the blinkered policy of some group of professed progressives. Playing into the culture wars is not helpful. Grouping and labeling is not helpful. When opposition to ideas becomes condemnation of anyone associated with them we lose civility and civility, civil rights and labor rights are at the root of progressive ideology.

  18. Zagonostra

    >US granted $270M to Soros-backed institute over 15 years: Data

    The US has granted over $270 million to the East-West Management Institute, an organization partnered with George Soros’ Open Society Foundations, in the last 15 years, according to data from USASpending.gov.

    Israeli Tel Aviv University received $615 million in grants from the US in 2023, according to its Form 990 filing, a document required for tax-exempt organizations.

    While it is unclear how much of this funding came from USAID or US taxpayers, reports indicate that $462 million was spent on salaries and employee benefits.

    I don’t think I quite have my head around this USAid story. Recently there were many Twitter/X stories of celebrities getting pay-offs which, which Yves pointed out were not substantiated. I would hope that some Congressional Investigation results from Trump’s poking this hornet’s nest, something on the order of the Church Committee of the 70’s, although I’m not holding my breath. Hopefully, NC will update this story as more info becomes available.

    https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/us-granted-270m-to-soros-backed-institute-over-15-years-data/3474978

    https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/israeli-tel-aviv-university-receives-millions-in-us-funding-report/3474994

    1. Aurelien

      I don’t know anything myself about this particular case, but remember that aid agencies in general do very little work themselves: they contract to consultancies and NGOs, who in turn contract to smaller organisations and individuals. In many cases, aid agencies support entire “Centres” or “Institutes” at universities, although this is soft money and dependent on performance. So of you look up the EWMI, it’s a fairly standard donor-supported NGO, with a programme of “civic engagement,” “promoting justice” and similar bromides. It’s not surprising that it also receives funding from Soros.
      A lot of the confusion seems to arise from ignorance of how the aid sector actually works. This seems to me, for good or ill, to be a pretty typical case.

  19. Mikel

    Smuggled Grand Pianos Show Trump’s Challenge in Pressuring Putin – Bloomberg

    While Russia clocks wins on the battlefield, they still have the problem that they want to negotiate with the USA , but they can’t force the USA to the bargaining table. I’m going to go out a limb and say that’s because the USA would have to care more about the Ukrainians for that to be a way to force the USA to the bargaining table. Saying things like “draft your 18 year olds” ….well….that doesn’t sound like love.

    1. Socal Rhino

      I do not think the RF wants to negotiate with us. They are willing to talk if their conditions are met, including recognition of the facts on the ground that continue to move to their advantage.

  20. Mikel

    Are the people in Ukraine able to see all the goodies being offered to Israel while they bleed?
    I’m sure the censorship goes deep, but there’s always a way.

  21. Bill B

    I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that some TDS wasn’t so deranged after all. I just hope that it wasn’t spot-on either. (BTW, I don’t count myself with having that apparent affliction.)

  22. engram

    “Egypt lobbies against Trump plan to empty Gaza of Palestinians as Israel prepares for it”

    The Egyptian response to the idiotic Gaza Riviera pipedream is of course irrelevant in the minds of those individuals promoting the new Trumpian international rules based order (the flood the zone lawless version) where a gangster state along with its convicted felon

    https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-convicted-felonies/

    figure head and its protection racket politics that masquerades as Imperial Power projection.

    The walk back that is a proposed coercive voluntary resettlement hopes to avoid the most egregious and visible violations of international law. See for example,

    https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/trump-gaza-clean-out-plan-breach-international-law-say-experts

    And a predictable programmed response from the hegemon:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2p19l24g2o

    1. Chris Cosmos

      First, there is no such thing as “international law” other than as a notional entity and a few tattered and irrelevant institutions, often highly corrupt. Second, Trump’s fantasy is at least achievable whereas the “two-state solution” is not even remotely possible unless you simply wipe out all Israelis and their US Zionist supporters. If we think inside the box and clutch our pearls then the killing and misery will continue.

      1. engram

        The ‘notional entity’ has already established legal precedent. most notably, for example, Nuremberg, Tokyo, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, ect.

  23. Roger Boyd

    The Bessent article states that federal government spending needs to fall by 3.6%, when that’s in fact 3.6% of GDP! US federal government spending was 23% of GDP in 2024, so that 3.6/23 = a 15.65% cut in federal spending.

    You can’t get that by closing down a few agencies, you either have to go after Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security etc., Defence (a no no for Trump), or raise taxes (tariffs?). There are much bigger cuts coming down the line so that Trump can keep his “temporary” tax cuts from his first term and add some more.

  24. Tom Stone

    Henceforth I shall pronounce “DOGE” as “Doggy” because I can’t quite get to “Dodgy” from that spelling.
    And this certainly does appear to be the third American Coup of my lifetime.
    1963, 2000 and 2025.
    If it looks like a quack and sounds like a quack…
    When I looked at the Billionaires attending Trump’s inaugeration it struck me how many were “Spook Adjacent”, which explains in part how things are playing out.

    1. Chris Cosmos

      But that’s how things always play out. The “play” is between the new oligarchs and some of the old ones. Either way it’s one faction or another that determines what happens in government. I hope for the kindness of oligarchs that may have a conscience because around the Democratic Party do not have one.

  25. Parker Dooley

    I was strolling through the Gainesville UF campus recently and came upon “The Center for Multiphasic Compressible Turbulence.” Apparently applicable to the study of (actual) bubbles. Check it out.

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