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Israel Launches Attacks Against Iran; Iran Begins Retaliation

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Alastair Crooke had said that Israel regarded June as the critical time frame for acting against Iran, because after that, it would not be possible to trigger the snapback provisions in the JCPOA and have the process come to resolution before the snapback expired in October. The Israel attack on Iran proves that assessment to be correct. However, the status of Iran’s nuclear program is simply a pretext. Most experts agree that Israel is seeking regime change.

Nevertheless, Israel is pretending to observe forms, asserting that it had new intelligence that said that Iran was on the verge of developing nuclear weapons. Various YouTubers (at a minimum Larry Johnson and Sayed Mohammed Marandi) have been saying that for over 20 years, so why is now so special? Well, aside from the fact that Bibi is in very hot water?

Simplicius cites sources in Israel on its ambitions for this campaign, which Israel officials say will persist for weeks:

Hebrew sources: Air force attacks on Iran are divided into three main missions:

The nuclear project
Destruction of missile launch platforms
Elimination of senior regime officials

Israeli news:

Israeli Channel 14 citing an Israeli official: “We have a long and broad offensive plan for the days ahead – complex days lie ahead. The Iranians will respond, if the public is disciplined, there will be few casualties. We are at war.”

Since Iran is widely believed to have a large stockpile of missiles, including an estimated 3,000 to as many as 6,000 cruise missiles, in sites so deep underground as to be highly resistant even to a nuclear strike, one wonders how Israel thinks it can destroy “missile launch platforms” unless it means air defense launchers.

As we’ll see below. the US posture is that it did not support this operation. It unlikely that this “uninvolved” posture will hold if the expected Iran retaliation exacts a high toll on Israel. Iran is already correctly pointing fingers at the US. A Guardian headline from yesterday: Trump warns of ‘massive conflict’ soon if Iran nuclear talks break down. Mike Hampton points out that the US evacuation of personnel in the region has a guilty look. And the Trump dodge was not artful:

Oh, and Bibi pinned the tail on the US donkey:

The BBC headline, Israel targets Iran’s nuclear sites and military commanders in major attack, is typical, even though most knowledgeable commentators contend that Iran’s nuclear enrichment program is far too deep underground to be vulnerable to air strikes. From the story:

The Wall Street Journal (as of 5:00 AM EDT) reports that Iran has already started its retaliation, with 100 drones. Recall that in its earlier pre-negotiated retaliation against Israel’s assassinations of Ismail Haniyeh and Hassan Nasrallah, Iran used drones to deplete and get information about air defenses, so it seems likely that a bigger punch is yet to come.

The Financial Times reports that Israel says it killed two Iranian commanders and struck the Natanz nuclear site. . Both the BBC and the pink paper said that the operation could continue for two weeks. The current New York Times headline strikes me as celebratory: Israel Wipes Out Iran’s Top Chain of Command

The pink paper added:

After massive explosions rocked Tehran at about 3.30am local time on Friday, state television also showed smoke rising from the main command headquarters of the Revolutionary Guards, the regime’s most powerful military force, in eastern Tehran.

Iran’s state news agency said several senior military figures, including Major General Hossein Salami, head of the elite Revolutionary Guards, were killed, as well as Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, a prominent physics professor, and Fereydoon Abbasi, a former head of Iran’s atomic organisation.

Preliminary evidence suggests that the claim that Israel it targeting only military figures is serving as a pretext to strike civilians:

Scott Ritter added to the hit list:

Initial reports suggest that, in addition to the decapitation strikes, Israel struck air defense and communications facilities, nuclear enrichment facilities at Natanz and Firdos, ballistic missile production facilities at Parchin, a ballistic missile operations base at Piranshahr, and other facilities of a similar nature.

We’ll presumably have Israel skeptics opine in due course as to how severely these targets were damaged. These assets should have been well protected, so if Israel was reasonably as opposed to randomly successful that would suggest Iran’s air defenses were not up to snuff.

Some preliminary takes from that peanut gallery suggest the Israel salvo so far has not done all that much harm, save perhaps for the senior level deaths:

From the body of the tweet:

An Israeli attempt to decapitate the Iranian military leadership also appears to have largely failed, with only one reasonably confirmed senior casualty at this time – GEN Salami, commander of the IRGC since 2019. I’ve seen a report that he was quite ill and thus remained in his home unlike the rest of the Iranian senior leadership….

Two or three people connected to the Iranian nuclear program also seem to have been assassinated, but in real terms this isn’t going to affect a program that is already largely – if not entirely – complete. The Iranians don’t need a lot of theory work at this point to develop a bomb if they don’t already have one.

The most likely course of events over the next few days, I believe is for the Iranians to launch another large-scale missile raid on Israel and the parties to go back to staring angrily at each other.

A Wall Street Journal map of the targets:

More detail on the strikes and responses:

However:

Note that Natanz was only 40-50 meters underground, which is a much shallower depth than has been claimed for key assets in Iran’s nuclear program.

Bloomberg reports that:

The UN atomic watchdog says there are no signs of increased radiation at Iran’s main enrichment site.

That would seem to suggest Natanz was not that severely damaged and/or that Iran had moved its critical enrichment operations and materiel much further underground.

DropSite is not so optimistic about the direction of travel:

Although the stated goal of Israel’s operation is to set back the Iranian nuclear efforts, there are reasons to be skeptical about this objective. Long before the current wave of strikes, U.S. intelligence officials and other analysts had pointed to the limited ability of Israeli strikes to destroy or meaningfully set back Iran’s nuclear program. Unlike nuclear facilities that Israel has struck in the past in Iraq and Syria, the Iranian program is more advanced, fortified, and distributed across a far greater territory. Key Iranian nuclear facilities like Natanz and Fordow are also built under layers of fortified concrete and granite—in some cases literally built into mountains—rendering them impossible to destroy by any known conventional Israeli military capacity.

The likely inability of Israel to fully destroy the program, despite being able to strike at various targets inside Iran, has led some military experts to conclude that the real goal of any attack is simply to fire the starting gun for a larger regional war with no determined endpoint. Such a war would potentially drag the U.S. in as a participant, including to defend Israel from Iranian retaliation, even at a time when segments of the Trump administration and its domestic political base are expressing intense frustration over fighting continued conflicts in the Middle East.

That aim would suggest that Israel, assuming it can deplete or damage Iran’s air defenses, will focus on hitting civilian residences, as it did in Beirut, to stoke internal opposition and facilitate a revolt. But as we know, wars typically increase internal cohesion.

Consistent with DropSite, Simplicius contends that top Israel officials are united in that view that desperately needs to eliminate Iran, when “Iran as a threat” is mainly a very successful Israel propaganda operation. At this point, Israel is the big threat to Israel. Larry Wilkerson has regularly banged on about how desperate things are in Israel, from flagging economic performance to civil-war-in-the-making political chasms to self-created international isolation. Others, including yours truly, have gone through a similar litany.

But the urgency for Israel, aside from needing to greatly bolster long-standing bugaboo of Iran as as a threat to Israel’s survival, is that support for Israel in the US was already in decline even before the genocide. Peter Beinart wrote in the early 2000s about how young Jews, unlike their elders, did not identify with Israel and were not deeply invested in how it fared.

From Simplicius:

Israel duly is at a crossroads, which I have described before: the country is in a downward spiral and has only one remaining chance to seize history to secure its survival. Why? The reasons are almost too long to list in this one brief article alone, but they include demographics, as well as the decline of Zionism and rise of “noticing” in the West which means in a generation or two, support for Israel may dwindle to the point where it will be engulfed by regional enemies.

The other major reason: nascent technologies have created parity between Israel and its foes, where groups like Hamas and Hezbollah can use cheap but highly technologically effective weapons to deal accurate, disabling damage to Israel’s most critical and sensitive infrastructure. The same goes for Iran: the country has come of age and mastered rocketry and newfangled drone warfare to the point where the numbers simply do not work in Israel’s favor in any future war.

Israel once had the backing of the world’s most dominant ‘superpower’ alliance of Western nations, now the tides of history have simply shifted against Israel’s favor.

By contrast, Scott Ritter contends that Iran, by enriching uranium to 60%, one cycle below what it would take to get to the 92% for a weapon, and then having officials say that the fatwa against nuclear weapons development could be reversed if Iran faced an existential threat, has put itself in a position where it has to move forward:

The escalation genie, unfortunately, is out of the bottle.

Iran is now in a “use it or lose it” reality, where the nuclear weapons threshold capacity it has acquired will either need to be rapidly converted into a viable nuclear weapons capability, or else it will be diminished and/or eliminated through the ongoing attrition of Israeli strikes.

Having promised that it would withdraw from the NPT if its nuclear facilities were attacked, Iran has no choice but to now follow through on this threat.

Failure to do so would be seen as an act of surrender by the Iranian regime, something which could serve as the predicate for regime change.

Keep in mind that some of the grim forecasts come from war profiteers:

The Financial Times recounts that the US is trying to play innocent while Iran regards them as guilty and hence fair game, indeed perhaps required game, in a retaliation:

Israel’s defence minister Israel Katz said Israel expected Iran to retaliate with “a missile and drone attack” as Israel closed its airspace and banned most non-essential gatherings.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Israel “should expect a severe punishment”….

Iranian officials also said they held the US responsible for the assault. Earlier this week Tehran reiterated warnings that the republic could also target American bases across the region if it was attacked.

US secretary of state Marco Rubio said in a statement Washington was “not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region”.

“Israel advised us that they believe this action was necessary for its self-defence,” Rubio added. “Let me be clear: Iran should not target US interests or personnel.”

This “they told us but we are not to blame” flies afoul of the principle, Qui tacet consentire videtur, or silence is assent. If memory serves me correctly, Israel and the US were working on a strike package in May which Trump nixed, much to Netanyahu’s ire. Unless the US was informed only immediately before the campaign, it’s hard to see the joined-at-the-hip US as not being at least somewhat culpable.

And we have plenty of Trump belligerence on record, such as:

The neighbors are Not Happy:

Nor is Mr. Market, but he has not yet retreated to a fainting couch. From Bloomberg:

Crude oil jumped the most in more than three years, stocks slid and haven assets including government bonds and gold rose after Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear program sites in a major escalation of tensions in the Middle East.

Oil surged as much as 13%, the biggest intraday jump since March 2022, before paring gains. Contracts for the S&P 500 index retreated 1.4% and those for European stocks slumped 1.5%. Gold rose 1.1% and Treasuries advanced, with the 10-year yield falling three basis points to 4.33%. Asian stocks dropped the most in two months.

We are very much in fog of war terrain, so any initial pictures can well shift as more information comes in.

However, I would have expected Israel to have delivered its most formidable attack on military and nuclear enrichment assets in the first wave, unless it was pinning a lot of hope on wrecking Iran’s air defenses first and then going after key targets.

And the US and Israel will find themselves a bit hoist on their propaganda petards. Both will need to minimize claims of damage to Israel by Iran (unless it is impossible to deny and/or catastrophic) and tout the effectiveness of Israel attacks on Iran. At the margin, Israel being perceived to be holding up against Iran salvo undercuts the case for US involvement.

One might think that both Iran and Israel have devastating threats, Israel in unleashing its nukes on Iran, Iran in a supposed “dead hand” strike capacity, that will send conventional missiles at Middle Eastern oil assets, both sending prices oil to the moon and unleashing an environmental disaster.

But Iran has sufficiently impressed upon the West that it has that capability in the event of an existential threat?

At 9:50, from Dr. Strangelove: “The whole point of a doomsday machine is lost if you keep it a secret. Why didn’t you tell the world?”

It would be nice to think that cooler heads might prevail. But Norman Finkelstein has called Israel “a crazy state.” And as a friend often days, “If you want a happy ending, watch a Disney movie.”

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207 comments

          1. flora

            In January this year, Gerald Celente said (paraphrasing) when countries leaders are in political trouble at home they take the country to war. Netanyahu is in trouble.
            Is this war all about keeping him in power? Enquiring minds….
            From The Cradle magazine:

            Netanyahu survives coalition collapse, strikes deal with ultra-Orthodox partners

            Ultra-orthodox parties pushed for the dissolution of the ruling coalition up until an agreement was reached to exempt Yeshiva students from military conscription

            https://thecradle.co/articles/netanyahu-survives-coalition-collapse-strikes-deal-ultra-orthodox

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    2. Ignacio

      Doesn’t this qualify as “unprovoked aggression? Not because the mere existence of the ‘others’ provokes a justified “preemptive” aggression.

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            1. Tim N

              Rappaport is a deranged Zionist and Genocide supporter. Is there any other kind? (No, I didn’t follow the link.)

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              1. The Rev Kev

                You should have. It was a very well known cartoon strip from the 70s. Still don’t know who Michael Rappaport is and can’t be bothered finding out about him.

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  4. nyleta

    Seems like the same mind that planned the Russian bomber attack has planned this as well, shades of the Hezbollah strike as well. Obviously some treason and sabotage of the Iranian AD. There doesn’t seem to be any prospect of the US being pulled back from its descent into a kind of mega-Israel.

    Mr Trump lost Mr Putin last week and who knows how many this will alienate. US obviously thinks no one will be game to really damage them, maybe they are right but it is a financial Empire now above all else, you would think someone would go after these corrupt markets even if they are increasingly virtual.

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    1. Yves Smith Post author

      We still don’t know how severe the damage to Iran was. Recall after the last attack, Western sources for the most part were depicting the impact as severe, which turned out not to be true. For instance, as I recall, one claim was that a key air defense system has been destroyed, when it came out later that only its radar had been damaged, and that was repairable.

      So MSM sources could be accurate in saying Iran took a real hit. But their track record says those claims (which come mainly from Israel, which has Ukraine-level incentives to project potency irrespective of actual results) are exaggerated. So we can’t yet determine how much they need to be haircut.

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      1. PlutoniumKun

        Its not just western media that is consistently biased and wrong about events, especially military events, in the Middle east. There is a lot of cope and wishful thinking from pro Axis of Resistance commentators who were utterly wrong about Hizbollah and Syria about the last attacks on Iran. There is no evidence apart from wishful thinking that Israel’s strike was a ‘failure’ – it is always impossible to assess the result of a military action when you don’t know what the military objective was.

        In all likelihood it was the air strike equivalent of a recon in force mission – it was intended to probe and gain intelligence for a more serious strike. Many non-ideologically aligned military analysts (plus ones sympathetic to Iran) were saying exactly this at the time, and I suspect now they’ve been proven correct.

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        1. Thuto

          To be fair, you’re falling into a related trap of launching into speculative editorialising when the only likelihood at this very early stage is that the truth of what happened vs what was intended is buried under an avalanche of copium, half truths, ommisions, spin doctoring etc. Did Israel hit targets? That much seems clear, as clear as the targets Iran hit with the salvo of missiles they fired at Israel the last time. That’s the extent of what we know at this stage (over and above the elimination of top Iranian military leaders). I don’t know where things go from here, but with EU big hitters France and Germany coming out with their statements in support of “Israel’s right to defend itself”, what can be declared without equivocation is that Europe’s vassalage is now so deeply entrenched and the moral legitimacy of the entire west so completely eroded that force, brutality and barbarism are the only cards left in the deck. Regardless of how this goes, and whether Israel “achieves” its military objectives or not, the rest of the world cannot unsee what it has seen over the last few years. Moral legitimacy has a power all of its own, and cementing your identity as a pariah as the US/Israel/West are doing fritters all of it away. And, as history has proven, and the current genocide in Gaza is proving, loss of conscience is a short skip and a hop from loss of morality.

          “Peace through strength” ia an illusion, violence begets violence, And when the monsters in charge of the west achieve their military objectives by brutalizing external enemies, they’ll unleash brutality on their own citizens.

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          1. PlutoniumKun

            To be clear, I was not referring to last nights attacks, I was referring to the exchange in April this year between Iran and Israel. It has become an article of faith among many that it was a failure, most open source analysts I follow think it was a probing attack with both Israel and Iran (for different reasons), downplaying the impact of the strikes.

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          2. juno mas

            Yet another astute observation of world events by the esteemed Thuto.

            Craig Murray was right: “We Are The Bad Guys”

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        2. LawnDart

          PK: There is a lot of cope and wishful thinking from pro Axis of Resistance commentators who were utterly wrong about Hizbollah and Syria about the last attacks on Iran…

          June 12, 2025

          Trump’s Attempt To Scare Monger Iran Into Nuclear Restrictions Will Fail

          There is some noise that an Israeli and/or U.S. attack on Iran is imminent. I regard this a propaganda which hopes to put pressure on Iran and not as serious war planning.

          Israel does not have the means to attack Iran. Bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities effectively is extremely challenging. Even their destruction would only delay, not hinder Iran from pursuing whatever nuclear program it likes.

          The rumors of an attack on Iran are most likely just scaremongering to press Iran into agreeing to Trump’s nonsensical demands of restrictions for its nuclear program. Iran is unlikely to fall for this.

          Anything Israel might try unilaterally would be for the sole purpose of drawing the U.S. into a war with Iran.

          https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/06/trumps-attempt-to-scare-monger-iran-into-nuclear-restrictions-will-fail.html#comments

          Maybe not totally wrong, as per Team Trump’s comments after the attack about “defending Israel.” Whether Israel succeeds in drawing US into war (or is it actually the other way around?) depends on how the next few weeks play out. For certain, Iran can’t just let this one go without response.

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      2. vao

        Let us look at the other side of the coin: it seems that Israel launched 200 airplanes to execute the attack — and they appear to have all returned to their bases without a scratch.

        There were rumours that during the air offensive in April, Israeli F-35 airplanes ended up being tracked by some heretofore unknown Iranian radar — causing the mission to be aborted.

        In other words, your suggestion:

        “These assets should have been well protected, so if Israel was reasonably as opposed to randomly successful that would suggest Iran’s air defenses were not up to snuff.”

        is ominous. Either

        1) Iranians do not actually have an advanced, efficient air defence;
        2) or, if they do, they are inept at operating it;
        3) or, if they are capable, then the Israelis thoroughly studied what occurred during their April endeavour, and found a way to thwart the Iranian air defence thoroughly (with jamming, decoys, manoeuvering, etc);
        4) or, if that was not the case, the Israelis found a way to sabotage the Iranian air defence from within Iran (cyberattacks, drones à la Ukrainian spiderweb…)

        Whichever the reason, this does not look good at all for the Iranians.

        It also means that while Iranian military installations, fortified and underground, remain impervious to everything Israelis throw at them, what is above ground is in fact defenceless — and that is especially true for civilian targets. Civilian targets seem to be those where Israelis had the most success last night. Moreover, they have always been their target of choice — in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Palestine. I fully expect that if new strikes take place, Israelis will forget about trying to damage underground bunkers and will devastate further residential buildings and civilian infrastructure instead.

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        2. Kouros

          Have Israelis penetrated the Iranian airspace with their planes?The boosters in Iraq indicate that that was not the case. So is the same tactic as used to bomb Syria from Lebanon airspace.

          So this bragging of weak AD and best planes is just that. The question is, how many of the LORA missiles were intercepted by the Iranians. If 200 planes were sent, that means we have about 200 missiles that have a range of 400 km. This is the upper limit. Were there 200 explosions recorded? Doesn’t look that that is the case. But probably we’ll never know. I am sure the Russians and the Chinese are taking reams of notes here.

          Plus, there were the drones smuggled in Iran and launched locally at close range, likely on the civilian targets.

          As for regime change, I don’t see signs of that in Russia, who has endured so far greater attacks on its territory.

          And Iran is not as weakened as Iraq, or Syria, or Lebanon were, and the structures of the state are very strong. Iran endured a 10 year gruelling war with Iraq, all by itself, no help. I cannot see, practically, how this “regime change” could possibly work in Iran’s case. Maybe Iranian population might be fed up with the over-religiosity of the mullahs, but beside that, in face of iminent danger, I am not sure much can be done. Even the bolsheviks, after June 1941, started talking more about patriotism and less about communism in the face of the German behemot.

          Asking for clarifications on what assumptions Israel and the US are using for carrying this plan of regime change?

          Emmanuel Todd claims that they are in a nihilistic stage, and as such, no assumptions are truly necessary to do what they are doing:
          https://substack.com/inbox/post/165773340

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      3. NakedEmperor

        it seems that Israeli spies operate freely inside Iran. It has been very easy for Israel to assassinate Iran’s most important people. How is it that Iran is unable to protect them? Iran should have long ago gone the way of North Korea and build a sizeable nuclear deterrent. They haven’t and so the very existence of Iran is threatened. At this point Iran will be well advised to quickly enrich their existing uranium stocks to weapons grade levels. This should be a higher priority than retaliation strikes against Israel. The clock is ticking for Iran.

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    2. Unironic Pangloss

      the irgc assassinations look more like (heavy) drone strikes, likely launched from inside Iran.

      if the IDF was used for the nuke sites, it is incredibly unlikely even symbolic damage was done to military or nuclear targets.

      this is the amuse bouche. Balls in Iran’s court. How do you say TACO in Farsi?

      clearly iran’s prior sane restraint has been viewed as weakness by Netanyahu. If I was a Supreme Leader, I would go fill Hammurabi just being honest

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    3. Lefty Godot

      Iran needs to get on the phone to North Korea and order some nukes posthaste. And they may not even have time to benefit from that, as a color revolution will probably overtake them once Israel has assassinated enough of the current leadership. Given all the warning that this was about to happen, it looks like an epic fail on Iran’s part so far. If their retaliation doesn’t do some very serious damage to their enemies, there will probably be a Pahlavi on the throne in Iran by this time next year, eager to let the US put missile bases close to Russia’s southern border (and China’s western one). Yet Russia and China will not defend Iran, so they won’t be able to complain about what happens in their own backyards after this chapter has been closed.

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      1. Kouros

        Iranians keep trying to have a Republic, for quite some time. I am pretty sure they like their voting. At most, a “colour revolution” would keep the state as it is and get rid of the mullahs. And the strategic, permanent interests of the Iranian state will remain the same.

        Iran endured a gruelling 10 years war in 1980s, when was weaker. Why this breezy talk of a fast defeat with some bombs droping here and there? Lots of smoke so far, but one can do that with a bit of fire and couple of ballots of straw.

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      2. OnceWere

        If a few assassinations and a day of air strikes is all it takes to successfully colour revolution the Iranian regime, then quite frankly the Russians and Chinese are right not to invest too much in defending it. Wake me up if the US/Israeli-installed quisling government ushers in a new era of democratic prosperity as was promised in Iraq and Aghanistan. I would rather expect a repeat of the chaos and unending sectarian violence that we actually got in which case a new Middle East quagmire for American troops might suit Russia and/or China well enough. One might expect, given American support for Ukrainian terror attacks within Russia, that this time (unlike the propaganda we got from Afghanistan) that the Russians would actually take the opportunity to offer bounties on American soldiers this time.

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      1. Mikel

        Wasn’t the most recent Russia and Iran pact supposed to cover defense?
        Mutual assistance in case of aggression, although no obligations for each country to offer any military or any other aid to an aggressor attacking another party.

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        1. Wisker

          You overlooked the possibility that the real agreement between them was to be dithering and unprepared to existential threats from Western Partners (TM). /s

          Jokes aside Iran is in a tough spot with regard to retaliation as Simplicius discusses. And I doubt Russia (or China) has its back with regard to discouraging nuclear threats from Israel. Joint naval exercises? Sure! Anything of actual value? Nope! BRICS new world order full steam ahead. Darn, I need the /s tag again.

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        2. NakedEmperor

          I recall reading last year comments from an Iranian official complaining that Russia and China won’t help them and that they are on their own. Trusting Russia and China for your security is a fool’s game. Putin talks big but delivers little, while Xi simply smiles and then walks away.

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          1. mahna

            Trusting anoyne else but yourself for your security is a fool’s game, and have always been. If you have just figured that out, you have a lot of catching up to do.

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    5. Tim N

      Trump never “had” Putin, so he can’t have lost him. The Russians certainly understood from the get-go that Trump was and is stupid, ignorant, and given to brag. Trump’s criminally stupid threats and ravings directed at the Iranians should prove even to the least intelligent and perceptive among us that Trump (and his whole rancid “team,” especially the insecure imbecile Rubio) is in way, way over his head, but Trump the current towel-boy, weak and insecure, is running with the Plan that Brian Berletic points out has been in the works for decades.
      Trump rose to the level of his incompetence quite young (surely by high-school), and I’m afraid things will get seriously out of hand soon enough. But to paraphrase the late Lewis Lapham, trust in their stupidity to throttle or slow down some of their worst instincts.

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      1. Lazar

        I still can’t believe the number of people that actually thought that there is even a slightest chance of Trump doing something good for anyone but himself and the swamp he belongs to. The USA brainwashing machine is indeed the best in the world. The greates brainwashing machine ever. Nothing comes even close. I have to admit that.

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  5. Jon Cloke

    “Pack up your troubles in your old kit-bag
    And smile, smile, smile
    While you’ve a lucifer to light your fag
    Smile, boys, that’s the style!
    What’s the use of worrying?
    It never was worthwhile
    So pack up your troubles in your old kit-bag
    And smile, smile, smile”

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  6. JohnA

    With this strike, Israel has surely drained the very last drops out of the International Bank of Goodwill towards the Zionist state. Sure, American Israel first politicians are all chorusing pray for Israel, and Starmer is asking for ‘calm’, but outside these bought and paid for puppets, and certain Zionists and Christian Zionists with their chosen people and rapture fantasies, the entire world is sick of that festering thorn in the side of the Middle East. Bibi has brought the demise of the Zionist state that much closer, all we can hope for is he does not destroy the entire planet in so doing.

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    1. hemeantwell

      And this is why any hope the Zionists might have of generating regime-changing dissent in Iran is self-delusional. Sure, many Iranians are unhappy with or opposed to the mullah regime, but supporting a genocidal state’s aggression will not be a route for expressing that sentiment.

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    2. Carolinian

      Don’t forget our major news media and Hollywood who are so very committed to the Zionist entity. Those of us who have been around for awhile remember the 80s when Likud took charge of Israel and it was said that now, at last, all those Jewish liberals would stop covering for the nation that so very much embodies all the things they claim to be against.

      But it didn’t happen and even people like Chomsky would say US policy was all about the oil rather than all about the Lobby. It’s the long standing war against truth that has really put us in this fix–that and the American voter tendency to ignore the rest of the world that is oceans away. I linked this yesterday but worth another

      https://scheerpost.com/2025/06/12/journalists-and-their-shadows-w-patrick-lawrence-the-chris-hedges-report/

      Lawrence says it was 9/11–blowback–that Lawrence really put us on our current course and recall that Netanyahu was pleased by 9/11 as was Bin Laden who said the conflict with Israel was its reason. If gasoline doubles in price then Americans will experience some more blowback. Let’s hope it isn’t something worse. But morally we have already reached a new low by supporting genocide and its many false excuses.

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      1. pjay

        “Netanyahu was pleased by 9/11 as was Bin Laden…”

        Indeed. But let’s not leave out the cancerous neocon presence that permeates our own dominant institutions that has supported *both* of these guys and made all of this glorious chaos possible. “Seven countries in five years”! It took a little longer, but this has *always* been the plan. Anyone who refuses to see this is denying a very obvious reality. They wrote about it, argued for it, got themselves into positions of political and ideological power, and carried it out. And they are still doing so, while all sources of real resistance in our dominant institutions have been marginalized or eliminated. I’ve been watching this stuff for over half a century, yet I am still stunned at our situation today.

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      2. John Wright

        Re the oil aspect.

        If one is a US domestic oil supplier (or fracker) high prices should be viewed as a positive.

        Taking the Middle East out of the oil market would be good for many USA based oil suppliers, just as destroying the Nordstream pipeline has been.

        From a domestic policy standpoint, the USA’s population has relied on cheap hydrocarbons, but USA politicians only (appear to) care about their citizens on a 2/4/6 year election cycle.

        Turmoil in the oil market could be welcomed as USA oil executives channel Bush the lesser in wanting to “bring it on”.

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  7. ocypode

    I’ve been seeing a lot of people arguing that Iran is weak, that they’ve been decapitated and won’t meaningfully respond, etc. This seems to be a wrong-headed view, in my opinion; hitherto we’ve only had exchanges that were knowingly limited in expectation not to cause a general war, but given the scale of the attacks, the deaths of civilians (inc. children) and the attempt to cause a nuclear meltdown means that Iran cannot afford to attempt to resolve this as before. This feels much more like actual war, a long-term conflict that is utterly unpredictable, and thus “responses” should be measured with such a view in mind, not in the result of knee-jerk retaliations.

    The biggest escalation few people are mentioning is, of course, the closing of the straits of Hormuz; given that the US appears to have no meaningful deployments in the region (after the beating they took from Ansarallah military understanders have mentioned that there are no planes stationed in Diego Garcia nor aircraft carriers in the region), the closure of the straits would be catastrophic and impossible to impede or reverse; if the US is unstable as it is with purely domestic affairs, it’s hard to imagine events not spiraling out of control with gasoline at 30 dollars the gallon, or whatever price it ends up reaching. Dangerous times.

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    1. ex-PFC Chuck

      I expect that Iran’s initial retaliation targets will focus on water and energy infrastructure, and on air power military installations. The former will quickly bring the costs of war home to the populace, polls of whom show 80% support the Palestinian genocide.

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      1. vao

        “I expect that Iran’s initial retaliation targets will focus on water and energy infrastructure, and on air power military installations.”

        The equivalent water and energy infrastructure in Iran is at least, and perhaps even more, exposed and fragile. I doubt that Iranians will go for those obviously civilian targets — this would invite a similar, and devastating, retaliation.

        As for air power: why on earth have neither the Iranians, nor the Yemenis, bombed the hell out of the Israeli fleet of air-refuelling airplanes? This would immediately clip the wings of the Israeli air force when it comes to long-range operations.

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        1. The Rev Kev

          Because the US would only send them more to replace them. Last year they sent the Israelis a whole squadron of F-35s, probably because the Israeli ones were suffering too much wear and tear. In any case, you can be certain that just like the last time Israel attacked Iran, the US were again using their air-refuelling airplanes to help out the Israelis.

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          1. vao

            Air-refuelling airplanes constitute a limited asset, and their utilization is constrained by other strategic imperatives — notably, deployment in Asia.

            Besides, having the entirety of the air-refuelling be carried out by the USAF would make the argument that Israelis operate autonomously completely untenable.

            Finally, such a dependency would provide another lever for the USA to use against Israel. Even if the lever is not actually used, Israelis would have to negotiate and confirm every usage of those refuelling airplanes, something that will make them gnash their teeth.

            Summa summarum: such a move would limit what the Israelis can actually do in terms of long-range operations, slow down the set-up of such operations, and effectively destroy a propaganda argument. The Israeli military perhaps not be paralysed, but would incur a permanent, noticeable claudication. That is already something.

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            1. IMOR

              C’mon, vao– I realize it is not your argument, but surely “the argument that Israelis operate autonomously” is already “completely untenable,” no matter how it might be figleafed- and has been for decades now.
              Your incisive take further above doesn’t require such torturing.

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              1. IMOR

                C’mon, vao– I realize it is not your argument, but surely “the argument that Israelis operate autonomously” is already “completely untenable,” no matter how it might be figleafed- and has been for decades now.
                Your incisive take further above (“other side of the coin”) doesn’t require such torturing.

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            2. TiPi

              The USA has a long term commitment to the annual $3.8bn military aid, so has a formal bankrolling arrangement.
              And that’s the minimum…. Recent topups have amounted to $17.9bn since October 7th 23.
              How anyone can imagine that Israel has autonomous military capacity is almost beyond comprehension.

              Of course the USA has huge leverage, but it chooses not to use it for reasons of geopolitical power.

              As 47 is out of the same mould as Netanyahu, the prospect of genuine US led restraint in the any new Iranian war is slight. That is the current Israeli regime’s gamble.

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        2. PlutoniumKun

          Yes, Iran’s energy infrastructure is very rickety and highly dependent on a relatively small number of large and old thermal plants. Its oil and gas network, in addition to its electricity infrastructure, would be very vulnerable to attack.

          Its water infrastructure is more secure – unlike Israel, it does not use much desalination, but gets most water from a decentralised network of dams and tens of thousands of wells (many unmapped). The well water is somewhat dodgy as Iran also has a history of ‘treating’ its sewage by pumping it untreated underground.

          Iran would, I think, only try to strike Israels civilian infrastructure as a last resort. It would probably come off worse in a tit for tat.

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  8. Unironic Pangloss

    so we’ve had a Dem. and GOP administration seeing no problem “salamai slicing” Iranian core interests.

    Iranian sensible restraint is viewed as weakness by the West.

    The West is making it existential for Iranian revolutionary government. (potentially) die in an airstrike while leveling Israel or get Benito Mussolini-ed by a color revolution Those are the Supreme Leaser’s choices.

    Western diplomacy, folks!

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  9. Adam1

    Given it would be a no brainer that oil prices and the market would move one the news, it would be interesting to know how many senior American officials sold or shorted the market. That would reveal the extent of how much the US knew ahead of time.

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    1. tegnost

      As a cynic of long standing, my first thought was “…gotta get those gas prices up for the summer driving season!”

      Reply ↓
    3. Screwball

      I’m not sure the precise time of the attack, but crude oil spiked around 8 EDT last night. It went from around 69 to 77 between 8 and the 10:40pm high.

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      1. Turtle

        The local time of the attack has been reported as 3:30am, so the timing of the oil spiking makes sense. Iran is 7.5 hours ahead of Eastern US time, so 8pm EDT would have been 3:30am, exactly when the bombings started.

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    1. hemeantwell

      No technical info, but here is Judge Nap talking with a despairing Jeffrey Sachs this morning. Sachs underlines again and again the complete loss of credibility of the US as a partner in negotiations.

      Although Sachs doesn’t try to talk specifically about the impact of this brazen, murderous dishonesty on relations with Russia and China, one can only wonder if the leadership of both countries have been moved to think about preemptive action more seriously and to do it in the very near future, while the US will have its hands full backing the Zionists.

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  11. Earl

    Unfortunately, there is no peace movement to counter our determinations for endless war and national shame. War monger Obama with his girl gang, Hillary, Powell and Rice snuffed out any progressive impulse for peace. Once again, I will write my senators and representative. I expect as in the past, if they choose to respond, that they will show their ignorance, cynicism and cowardice. It is a worthless gesture, but I will remember and never vote for any politician, ever, who fails to oppose this criminality. A test is the question. Are you now or have you ever been a Zionist?

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    1. NakedEmperor

      Apparently, there are some “No Kings” marches scheduled for this weekend. Some of my siblings plan to march. I’m sure the marches will be nice and cordial. No mention of general strikes and boycotts, however.

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  12. The Rev Kev

    I’m blaming Trump for this one. There is no doubt that he authorized full US cooperation with Israel to carry out this attack. And when he and Rubio say that the attack had nothing to do with them, nobody believes them. He tried to stare down Russia over the Ukraine but it blew up in his face. He tried to go head to head with China but had to do a TACO. So then there was Iran. He was never serious about doing a deal and maybe he felt that by helping Israel attack Iran would give him the superior cards, not really recognizing that Netanyahu’s ultimate aim – just like Zelensky – is to have American soldiers fighting and dying for him. And why not? They are only just a bunch of goyim of no consequence. Now he’s telling Iran to make a deal – on his terms – before there is nothing left. He even mocked them when he said-

    ‘Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb and we are hoping to get back to the negotiating table. We will see. There are several people in leadership that will not be coming back’

    Now Iran is going to have to do a major counterattack. Unlike Israel, they are not into causing mass casualties. They could go for military targets but I think that this attack will require a stronger response and here I am thinking of Israel’s infrastructure. And since Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities, then that means that Israel’s nuclear facilities are now fair game. Well that’s another mess that Trump has gotten us into.

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    2. Mikel

      Israel probably considers the USA’s nuclear weapons and systems as part of their own. Something that didn’t just start with Trump.

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    1. Tim N

      Oh yeah, it’s lip-service, though I’m sure they’re a bit nervous. There’s what, upwards of 2 million Shia in SA? The trip-wire could trip at any time . . . .

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  14. PlutoniumKun

    Far too early for any clear assessment or conclusion, but a number of factors are clear:

    As with the attacks on Hizbollah, Israel has a very formidable intelligence advantage – they seem to have successfully killed at least half a dozen of the most senior military figures. It seems certain that this was not a pure airstrike – they have assets within Iran, probably drones/small cruise missiles. Some may have been brought in over the border from the north (Armenia/Azerbaijan). Israel also likely has allies in the form of various sunni/jihadist groups either in Iran or on the Iranian/Syrian border.

    It seems that the entire Iranian air defence system has been at least temporarily neutralised, including the S-300 systems. There does not seem to have been any significant response. They may also have neutralised much of Irans immediate ‘first response’ capacity (i.e. those missiles out on the road or readied for immediate launch). Iran would almost certainly have had a plan to launch immediate response missiles against Israeli airfields in order to catch assets out in the open on the return from strikes – there is no evidence so far that this has happened.

    It seems likely, but not certain yet, that much of Iranians missile assets have been damaged or temporarily neutralised within their bunkers (most likely strikes have damaged the entrances, ensuring it may take hours or days before they can be used).

    The pattern of attacks has been at least partly predicted by some open source commentators. The core nuclear sites cannot be destroyed in an immediate attack and were almost certainly not part of this strike. The strikes would have focused on neutralising all ‘open’ air defences and the less protected elements of the supply chain for missiles and nukes. Hitting the better protected ‘core’ targets would always be a longer term objective, one only pursued after air defences have been neutralized. Most likely, Israel intends on dragging the US in so that this can be done with larger bunker busters. Initial strikes would have focused on the road accesses and air vents of any underground facilities in order to delay any response. However, given that the Israelis clearly have high level intelligence assets within Iran (impossible to have killed so many high level leaders without this), it can’t be ruled out that they could have found vulnerable targets even with the underground facilities. Even the deepest bunker has to open its doors sometimes.

    And finally, it seems Trump can’t keep his big mouth shut. He has given Iran all the ammunition they need to justify an immediate strike against US assets in the region. The big question is whether this will involve assets in KSA or the Gulf.

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    2. ChrisFromGA

      This seems way too optimistic in terms of favoring Israel.

      It is possible that all the strikes were with drones or long range “standoff” type weapons, perhaps launched from jets in Syrian or Jordanian airspace. That way Israel would not have to risk flying into Iranian airspace.

      So it remains to be seen just how much of Iran’s air defense actually got hit.

      As far as the intelligence, yes, it does seem that Iran got caught flat-footed which is unforgivable given that they’d had advance warning through the pager bombs, HTS bribing Syrian army, etc.

      Taking out some of Iran’s military commanders will slow but not necessarily stop the response. Probably wise to sit back and wait before jumping to conclusions.

      And as an aside, when is China going to get the memo that they’re next? If I were Xi Jinpeng I’d have already cut off all rare earth exports to the West and told Orange Julius to pound sand, you can take your trade deal and shove it.

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      1. PlutoniumKun

        I’ve not come to any conclusions. Nobody knows where this will end. But its very clear that Israel has struck dozens of key targets all across Iran without any claim by Iran or other sources that it successfully intercepted a single missile or aircraft. By any standards, that’s a catastrophic failure of its air defence system. This isn’t a particular surprise to anyone who’d been paying attention to Israels military capacities, which have advanced enormously over the past decade or so.

        China has long had very good relations with Israel and in fact has almost certainly used Israeli tech for its own military – in particular the J-10 which was likely designed at least in part by Israeli engineers.

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        1. ChrisFromGA

          From SouthFront:

          The strikes were very likely carried out by Israeli combat drones. At least one IAI Heron drone was spotted over the city of Tabriz, the capital city of East Azerbaijan province in western Iran, before the IDF announced a series of strikes on a large ballistic missile base nearby.

          And:

          Four other videos released by the Mossad showed Israeli commandos attacking Iranian air defenses, including at least one Tabas medium-range system, in addition to a ballistic missile launcher. The commandos used what appear to be Spike-type optical-guided anti-tank missiles and an unidentified type of loitering munitions.

          The Mossad was reportedly behind a large-scale covert attack on Iranian air defense in the center of Iran, including around the capital of Tehran. Meanwhile, air defenses in the west of the country were hit from a stand-off distance by the Israeli Air Force (IAF).

          Link

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    3. NakedEmperor

      Iran is very unlikely to attack any US assets in the region. As things stand now, Iran has buckled under the first Israeli strike. The government will be lucky to survive the weekend. The Shah (his son) will be returning to Iran sooner than expected.

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      1. ambrit

        Believe you me, from some expat Iranians I have spoken with over the years, the Shah’s progeny will be the last people welcomed “home” by the Iranian people. The SAVAK are still remembered with fear and loathing by older Iranians.
        Pro tip: extensive historical analysis has shown that air power alone has never driven a people to revolt or despair.
        How long did it take America to ‘recover’ from the Pearl Harbour attack? Certainly not days.

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      3. mega

        The Shah (his son) will be returning to Iran sooner than expected.

        I guess “a girl can dream”, but I would advise against betting your life savings on it.

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  15. Thuto

    Trump has gone full gloating-mode on his social network. Lindsay Graham says “game on” in what is surely the greatest dopamine hit he has ever experienced in his life. The level of sociopathy on display is beyond belief, these people are demonstrating in real time the depths of depravity to which humans can sink. This is what happens when the absolute worst traits are highly monetizable (while also guaranteeing a fast track to the upper echelons of political power) or, as Charlie Munger put it, “show me the incentives and i’ll show you the outcomes”. I’ll hazard a guess and say the crazies being in charge in the west and unleashing utter chaos on the world will be an additional headwind for the global struggle to return the birthrate to above replacement levels to deal with. One can’t help but wonder whether bringing children into such a world is even worth it.

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    1. Colonel Smithers

      Thank you and well said, Thuto.

      From my interaction with Westminster and Whitehall and even Brussels, I reckon the reaction there is similar. It’s not just the incentives, cynically and often sourced from the US, but many, if not most, believe that supremacist nonsense and struggle with the idea of treating the likes of Russia and China as equals*.

      Perhaps, the leaders of the global south will emulate North Korea, not SA.

      Am I glad that I don’t have children.

      *Notice that I did not mention the other joke members of the BRICS etc.

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      1. Thuto

        Thank you Colonel,

        I fully concur, an ethnosupremacist normative worldview is at the very core of all this. In its mildest manifestations, the inferiors, whether individuals, groups, or nation states, are expected to know their place and submit willingly, to say nothing of joyously, to their role as a permanent servant class to their superiors. In its most malign form, ethnosupremacy births eg Israel and the political class in the collective west. They simply cannot reconcile themselves with the existence of other intellectual, cultural, and social peers in any region outside the west. It’s this deeply ingrained supremacist ideology that has us living under constant strife.

        Re: the other joke members of the BRICS, when some of them rolled out the red carpet for Trump on his recent tour of the Middle East, I privately came to the same conclusion as you regarding their status vis a vis the mission. Part of the problem, as i see it, is that as deeply ingrained as the supremacist mindset is in the west, the converse is also true (and it’s especially true with elites) outside the west. Some of our elites have a deeply ingrained inferiority complex and in spite of being owners of financial fortunes that dwarf many a fortune in the west, they still seek validation from westerners and don’t feel like they’ve truly arrived unless and until they’re hobnobbing with western elites. To them, strutting your stuff on the global stage means nothing less than being accepted into western elite circles. Hence the impulse to buy homes in Paris, London, New York etc. This dynamic is deeply subversive to the mission

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        1. Mikel

          “To them, strutting your stuff on the global stage means nothing less than being accepted into western elite circles. Hence the impulse to buy homes in Paris, London, New York etc. This dynamic is deeply subversive to the mission.”

          Indeed. And how about the recent trade talks with China and USA?
          The USA was able to use admission into the USA’s universities as a leverage point.

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        2. Redolent

          ethnosupremacist normative worldview

          tunnel vision forever the focus of the oligarchy…the hollowing out of the institutions of education,
          journalism, healthcare, etc…to prop up the MIC …is by design

          the ascendancy of 47, a wave to C-United, a ‘seat at the table’…no surprise then is the nascent relinquishing of the constitution….just a blatant manifestation of fact

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    2. NakedEmperor

      Trump’s Truth Social post was full “Mafia Don”. Joe Pesci would be proud of Don Don for whacking all those Iranians.

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      1. juno mas

        Whether he realizes it or not, Trumps comments are simply confirming that the drone attack on Putin’s helicopter was an assassination attempt that he knew of; in advance.

        In fact, it announces to the world that assassination of world leaders is now a US option. (If they didn’t already comprehend the deaths of Lamumba, Diem, and many others.)

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    3. Tim N

      Yeah, no surprise about Trump’s narcissistic vainglory and utter lack of principles or morals. Same goes for that violent-minded simpleton Graham. But where on Earth is the opposition Party, (the fake opposition Party)? They’ve sent out two of the Squaddies so far, Omar and Tlaib, to condemn the criminal war, but the rest of them are carefully figuring their options out: do they come out against the Zionists (here and over there–there isn’t a millimeter of daylight between the two), even very tepidly, and risk losing their Dem Party sinecure, already shaky for even occasionally merely thinking Bad Thoughts about Israel? I mean, what would Chuck Schumer say? (Even Schumer, a right-wing Zionist, is likely puzzling over the just-right response.) They can’t offend the Zionists, they can’t offend the Money Power (Wall Street and the big Donors), and they can’t offend their “colleagues,” who might swoon, so yeah, it’s gotta be tough right now for the Opposition. War, though, is always the answer, but for now silence is key. Thank God for Trump’s Big Military Ode to himself this weekend! The circus rolls on into the night.

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  16. Arkady Bogdanov

    I just want to point out that there are photos of damaged buildings alleged to be the homes of some of the Iranian individuals targeted last night. The damage visible implies high precision, very flat trajectories, and small warheads, which to me would indicate something like an Anti-Tank Guided Missile was used. This was the exact same tactic Israel used to murder Hanniyeh in Tehran previously, so they have form, as Lambert would say. Again- this is if you take it at face value that these actually are images of last nights attack. There are also videos circulating that claim to be of last night’s attack depicting actual primary detonations, and these detonations do not appear to be accompanied by inbound ballistic or cruise missile warhead tracks, which should have been visible in the dark. So based on that, I think we are going to find out that at least some of these attacks were made by local actors from within Iran.

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    1. Vicky Cookies

      Do we have information as to whether or not Israeli planes even made it into Iranian airspace? Fog is too thick right now to make any kind of statement about the state of Iranian AD.

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      1. hk

        Based on what little I know of so far, I would guess no. It seems to be a combinarion of Russian (aero ballistic missiles from far) and Ukrainian (drones launched locally by saboteurs) methods.

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        1. PlutoniumKun

          Details are very sparse (for some time, Rafael ADS has been teasing images on its sales brochures), but Israel seems to have been developing a range of very small, stealthy medium range high precision air to ground missiles for some years (under the general acronym ‘ROCKS’), and it was speculated that in last Aprils attack they were ‘real world’ testing some of them against Irans defences. Its not impossible they’ve developed some ground launched versions that could have been smuggled up to and into the border. They also likely have missiles that can home in on GPS jammers.

          Air defense systems have little choice but to make themselves targets as soon as they light up their radars. If Israel found a way to hit them before the missiles could be detected, then its toast for its air defence system. The best SAMS in the world are of little use if you don’t have any means to detect incoming aircraft.

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  17. jefemt

    Being in Montanny, as I am wont to do, I donned my tin chapeau and am agonizing over seemingly related events:
    Suzie Wiles and JD Vance corner Elroy, Elroy apologizes, contrition, makes nice. (Last Friday)

    JD Vance jets to Montana, post -haste, on Tuesday, has a breathtakingly dramatic escorted dash 60 miles south of the Butte airport to the 300,000 plus acre Matador Ranch, SE of Dillon, to meet with the Murdochs, (who bought the ranch from THE Koch bros). Not sure if Taylor Sheridan and/or K Costner were in attendance. MUST watch the Posse headed out of Butte!
    https://www.kxlf.com/news/local-news/witness-saw-vice-president-exit-air-force-two-after-landing-in-butte

    Nat guard and marines in LA LA Land, not Portland or Seattle.

    A birthday bash P-raid like no other on Saturday.

    All I can think is US-created false flag in DC on Saturday, Martial Law declared, and we have a King. No need for further elections.

    Happy Birthday, Mister President…. (apologies to Norma Jean)

    OK, got my tin hat positively glowing red-hot. I am now back to Dancing with the Master Chefs.

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  18. Anonted

    Air defense disabled… yesterday, prior to the attack, was the first time I observed in media the quality of Russia’s contribution to Iran’s air defenses. I can’t recall the military designation (SC-1?), but it was a truck with some odd looking turret, with multiple tubes sticking out the top.

    Am I merely ignorant, and this info has been available? If not, the timing of its release is curious, given their apparent failure. Perhaps merely Hasbara to diminish faith in the Russia-Iran relationship (and Russian defense industry generally)?

    All this assuming Iran isn’t absorbing the attacks intentionally; either way, there’s a bit of egg on Russia’s face. Syria and ‘Russian interests’ withstanding. Lots of questions.

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    1. Samuel Conner

      From your description, it sounds like it might be the Pantsir system, which is a hybrid auto-cannon, short-range missile system for point defense:

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantsir_missile_system

      This is a quite modern system. If RF has contributed this, it may be a mark of how important RF considers air defense of Iran, as this system is useful in the SMO against Ukraine.

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    2. PlutoniumKun

      The Russians sold Pantsir to Syria, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, but not Iran. It was speculated that Hizbollah got some from Syria. Russia did sell S-300 systems to Iran, but they are likely to be a little de-rated as export models. For whatever reason, they don’t seen to have worked last night, but its possible the Israeli’s simply avoided those areas under direct S-300 protection.

      Iran has a range of domestic anti aircraft systems, some of which seem to have been reverse engineered from a variety of sources, including the US, Russia and China. It can be very hard from long distance images to distinguish Iran’s systems from each other and from exports due to the sheer variety and their mix and match approach.

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      1. Anonted

        If the mods were to delete my comment, I’d be fine with that. Turns out source was a forwarded post on the Sonar-21 Telegram feed, re: Pantsir – S1 *shrugs*

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  19. HH

    This is Pearl Harbor type action, carefully planned and deftly executed, but with little consideration of the long game. Let’s assume Iran can’t make an effective counter-strike. Can they still lob a missile a day at Israel, as the Houthis do? Can they still block the straits of Hormuz? Can they still tear up the oil facilities of the Mideast? A basic rule of strategy is to begin with the end in mind. Israel has failed to heed this rule, and will bear the consequences.

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  20. Mara Corti

    I have always wondered why progressives and others on the left have no problem blaming white people as such for all manner of crimes perpetrated by a small minority, and yet are scrupulous to avoid using the term “Jew” when referring to actions taken by the self-proclaimed “Jewish state” which claims to act in the interests of Jews and enjoys the clear support of a majority of Jews around the world.

    What causes this double-standard? Propaganda? A lack of self-reflection? Learned self-hatred? Fear? It’s baffling.

    Maybe, in the interests of peace (and since nothing else seems to work), people should drop the pretense that Israel is acting for any other reason than it is a Jewish ethnostate.

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    1. Yves Smith Post author

      Because your argument is rank bigotry. Many Jews are extremely vocal in objecting to the genocide and aggression in the region. It is bogus to conflate the actions of the apartheid state of Israel with the actions of Jews generally. The most common way to make the distinctions is Zionist, although Norman Finkelstein argues that “Jewish supremacists” is more accurate.

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    2. Victor Sciamarelli

      The problem with the Jews in Israeli is that they are not special or chosen. Instead, they are simply human beings like everybody else and human beings are not able to refrain from violence. Institutions like the UN and Human Rights Watch renounce violence but that hasn’t solved the problem.
      The Gaza genocide is a tragedy but so was the 1994 Rwanda genocide which within a few months resulted in a million people killed and unprecedented mass rape. The Japanese were not kind to the Chinese when they invaded in the 1930s, nor the US towards Native Americans, Black Africans, or the Vietnamese. Who else to mention, the Armenians, Congolese under the Belgians? Where do you begin or end?
      The 2003 Iraqi war, an illegal invasion of a near defenseless country, was cruel, especially the assault on Fallujah. Perhaps millions died from the war, a decade of cruel sanctions, torture, and on. I think one reason the American elites admire Israel is because they can be as cruel as we are.
      Until someone or some movement can convince human being to forgo violence, the future doesn’t look bright.

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  21. ISL

    My SWAG on Iranian A/D is that the news is a sea of media psyops, and everything remains too unclear to assess.

    One interesting point is that Trump tweeted all the Iranian leadership are dead, but as noted, they aren’t – more evidence that Trump is “operating” in an intel bubble of ignorance and misinformation.

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  22. Aurelien

    Wading throughout least some of the news and comment, I think there are a few things that are reasonably obvious (I share a lot of PK’s assessment, which I won’t repeat.)
    First, although the US may well have known about the attack, it’s unlikely they needed any actual US help. Iran has been an intelligence target of Israel for generations, and they have developed capabilities such as aerial refuelling and long-range accurate missile attack to make these kinds of operations possible. They also have extremely good intelligence at all levels, and a highly developed electronic warfare and intelligence gathering capability. They probably have better intelligence on Iran than the US.
    Second, US behaviour is inconsistent with having a lot of warning; The announcements about evacuations were very late in the day: if they had had more warning they would have been quietly bringing people out earlier. Either they didn’t have that warning or they believed they had dissuaded Israel from the attack.
    Third, this is only the beginning of the process: they are using essentially the same tactics as those against Hezbollah: in this case the idea is to destroy the command and control system and kill the principal civilian and military figures: the missiles are no good without a command system behind them, and the Iranians were clearly caught unprepared.
    Last, I see this as an attempt to prolong the war psychosis and keep Netanyahu in power. he has no interest in a short campaign: indeed, the longer the better.

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    1. Kouros

      Hezbollah is not a government but just a small faction living out of donations. Iran is several orders of magnitude different in complexity and capacity, including human capacity.

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      1. Aurelien

        It’s more than a faction: it has more equipment than some armies. But that’s not the point, it’s the strategy that is similar, just moved up several orders of magnitude/

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      2. hk

        I wondered the same the other day.

        Hizb’ullah’s power depended heavily on the adroit manner its leadership could play local and regional politics. Losing both the leadership and the politico-social infrastructure were big deal–Hizb’ullah, afaict, did as well as it did in the past militarily vs IDF, but without political leadership, it couldn’t leverage that into its advantage.

        Is Iran, a significant and sovereign state, in the same shape? I think not. Even if its lost a score of military and other leaders, it won’t be quite so disabling. But what are the implications now?

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        1. PlutoniumKun

          Hezbollah always claimed not to have an organisational structure, but to be a ‘movement’, although very clearly it did have a governing structure and on the ground in Lebanon operated pretty much like any bureaucracy. It even had an informal tourist authority (20 years ago, I found myself guided by a Hezbollah member in southern Lebanon who was telling me excitedly about how it was turning a former Israeli torture centre into a local attraction – a photo of it is still over my desk as I type). He only told me about the minefield around it when I was already inside (local humour). Hezbollah was supposedly designed to be able to operate even as senior leaders were killed, but as we’ve seen, the reality didn’t quite match the theory.

          My guess is that Israel/the US, has always thought that it could cause Iran to fall apart with sufficient pressure. This is always an unwise strategy – good strategists look at real military/industrial capacity, not ‘what-ifs’. I’m no expert on the governing structures of Iran, but it is based very much on a fairly shaky balance of power between economic, religious, ethnic and military power groups, and its always hard to know when these can fall apart (in the manner, for example, that Yugoslavia or Lebanon fell to pieces at a time when they seemed to be stable). Apart from not being a particularly well run country (as its chaotic infrastructure attests), the big question mark about Iran has always been its minorities. A country based on a religious identity which very significant minorities don’t belong to is always going to be vulnerable, and the Israeli’s in particular seem to have been very adroit in picking apart these seams, especially along its Syrian/Iraqi and Pakistani borders.

          An ominous sign for Iran is the manner in which Israeli intelligence managed to undermine Assads forces in such a manner that a supposedly defeated jihadist enemy could surge to victory in a matter of days. Israel is a loathsome and genocidal nation, led by some of the most repulsive politicians on the planet, but anyone who underestimates its capabilities to destroy enemies is not paying attention.

          Reply ↓
          1. hk

            I think Hizb’ullah claim was right as far as its military was concerned: its military did quite well, despite the loss of political leadership presumably precisely b/c they didn’t have an organization. But Hizb’ullah was, especially in retrospect, a political organization with a militia, not the other way around, so the political leadership was apparently more important than the military non-leadership.

            Reply ↓
          2. hk

            PS. The thing about fractious ethno-religious makeup of the country is that Israel is definitely subject to this, possibly more than any other country in the world, even (given the problems it’s suffering nowadays). To a large degree, even the United States is not free from this problem (far from it, it’s gotten really exacerbated in the past decade.)

            Ethno religious politics of Iran seems really weird–Azeris have had pretty significant presence in Iranian leadership, if only in ethnic backgrounds of its leaders. (including Khomeini himself, iirc). Yet, they are seen as the weakest link in the Iranian sociocultural makeup….

            Reply ↓
            1. PlutoniumKun

              Israel has its minorities (not just non-Jews, but distinct groupings within Judaism who are often as much as odds with each other as with others), but it seems to me that the dominant strain of radical zionism is completely in control now. Whatever their differences, being surrounded by enemies is a great unifier. And let’s not forget that Israel has been pretty good at making non-Jewish allies, from jihadists to Maronites to Druze.

              The Azeri thing is interesting, as Azerbaijan itself seems to be wholly an ally of Israel now. And Ali Khamenei (Supreme Leader) I believe is half Azeri. Of course, there is a huge intermixing of ethnic/religious/linguistic elements in the country. But it’s the substantial Sunni minority in Iran that I think is the big destabilising factor and the weak link that the Israelis and others have been trying to exploit.

              Reply ↓
              1. hk

                I think both Khomeini and Khamenei are at least part Azeri (at least one, possibly both, is/are half Azeri.) This has often come up in context of how Azerbaijan apparently has been making issue of Azeris in Iran….

                Reply ↓
          3. vao

            “anyone who underestimates its capabilities to destroy enemies is not paying attention.”

            Israel won against Lebanon, inflicting painful losses on Hezbollah’s leadership and civilian membership, and destroying civilian infrastructure. Hezbollah is now hemmed in, and Israel continues to bomb those Lebanese places it does not occupy.

            Israel won against Syria, occupies swathes of Syrian territory including the strategically important mountains bordering Lebanon, the rest of Syria being a mess where a couple of factions (Islamist HTS and Kurdish SDF, both generally agreeable to Israel) vie for supremacy while being militarily severely degraded compared to Assad’s troops.

            Israel is winning against Palestine, in Gaza through sheer massacre, in the West Bank through ethnic cleansing — with the acquiescence of the Palestinian Authority and the “international community”.

            Israel has not won against Yemen — but then, nobody seems to be able to pull this off, and Yemen is not that dangerous to Israel militarily (the bankruptcy of the Eilat harbour is just a cost of subjugating Gaza).

            We will see how Israel fares against Iran, but from the first day things look very dire for the Islamic Republic. My bet has been, contrarily to all those optimistic statements about Iranian missiles, Iranian underground bases, Iran blocking the Hormuz strait, Iran activating its proxies throughout the Near East, that Israel would repeat what it did before: devastate the civilian infrastructure and the political leadership, since attacking military sites is too complicated. At first sight, Israel even managed to neutralize the Iranian air defence. If Iran does not retaliate in a way that proves really, truly, profoundly painful to Israel, it will lose too.

            Reply ↓
            1. NakedEmperor

              By now I think it is clear that Iran’s and Hezbollah’s military capabilities were greatly exaggerated. Israel enjoys full spectrum dominance across the entirety of the Middle East. I expect Iran to make a deal with Trump that effectively surrenders its sovereignty to the Zionists. What other choice does it have? Eventually, Reza Pahlavi will claim the Peacock Throne his father once occupied.

              Reply ↓
              1. cfraenkel

                Huh. I didn’t think the term “full spectrum dominance” was used outside of Lockheed or Rayethon powerpoints.

                Reply ↓
              2. ChrisFromGA

                An IDF command and control center in downtown Tel Aviv just took a direct hit, according to comments on MoA.

                So, it sounds like we may need to redefine full spectrum dominance to occasionally leaky air defense partial dominance.

                Reply ↓
                1. NakedEmperor

                  I will bet dollars to donuts that command and control center was unoccupied, at least unoccupied by any senior Israeli military officials. Unlike the Iranians (apparently), the Israelis use cunning and deceit to defeat their enemies. The Brits are pretty good at this game too.

                  Reply ↓
                  2. J

                    A quick off-topic aside: “Dollars to
                    donuts” no longer holds the same
                    meaning it once held.

                    Thanks, inflation.

                    Reply ↓
            2. Kouros

              I fail to see how Israel can “win” a war that goes only in air. Without boots on the ground, even if Iran experiences more hits than Israel, doesn’t mean anything.

              People are replaceble and in a country of over 80 millions, there are plenty of replacements.

              Although I side with Iran, I can only be cautiously optimistic.

              The thing is, if Iran shows some metal and can go on without much sweat (the potential is there, given the 10 years war with Iraq), there are high chances that Russians and the Chinese would accept to test their wares in Iran.
              Maybe even give some pointers on enhancing security and blocking Israeli intelligence…

              Iran has more strategic depth than anything Israel or US have ever confronted before.

              The only win Israel/US can have is if they nuke Iran. But then everything else will fall appart and we’ll all live in a Hobbesian world.

              Reply ↓
          4. Aurelien

            I think that’s right. The Israeli strategy is to destroy Iran as a country, rather than defeat it militarily, which may not be possible. A lot of warfare depends on command and control, and if they can wipe out or seriously degrade the government and the military command systems, then Iran won’t be able to use the weapons it has. I have a feeling that, like Hezbollah, the Iranians have underestimated Israel.

            Reply ↓
            1. Polar Socialist

              Israel alone can reach about quarter of Iran, while Iran can pommel all of Israel and then some. I think it’s Israel that underestimated Iran. Or, being the religious fundamentalist they are, did not see any other option and just hoped for the best.

              Reply ↓
          5. Kouros

            The description of Israel is on point and their tactics of “rise & kill first” is well known. Israel has been a terrorist state before being a state.

            Most of Iranian minorities are also muslims, of different shades of Shi’a and Sunni so it is the ethnical make-up that would be a bigger factor. And people doing it for fun & money will always be forthcoming.

            The problem is that Iran is such a big country, making it hard to secure its physical borders for Israeli infiltrations. Having shitty neighbours, like Azerbaidjan or Turkyie, of course doesn’t help. But its military is far from being in the same state as Iraq 2003 or Syria 2025, or Lebanon (19xx-20xx).

            It is thoug high time to move the focus of the morality police from hair cover for women to identifying saboteors and terrorists. But if the present system holds that as having a greater importance than the security of the state, than maybe they deserve to fall…

            Reply ↓
          6. Kouros

            Assad forces were undermined by the crippled economy of Syria due to sanctions and US occupation of the most productive areas, where the oil and grain were produced.

            Iran is in a different situation and it trades with Russia and China. And is under sanctions…

            Reply ↓
    2. The Rev Kev

      ‘First, although the US may well have known about the attack, it’s unlikely they needed any actual US help.’

      Nope. Not buying it. This is a repeat of the attack on Russia’s triad where Trump said nothing to do with us even though the Ukraine could never have done it without CIA and MI6 help. I think that you will find that the US gave Israel real-time satellite intel, air tankers, recon planes, search & rescue elements, extra fuel, munitions, spare parts and anything else that they needed so that Trump could claim a win in time for his victory parade. Like the attack on Russia, this too is a Trump production but with Israel being the proxies this time.

      Reply ↓
  23. Bill B

    IIRC, there was a theory that during Israel’s penultimate attack on Iran, the Israeli bombers saw that they were seen by air defense systems and aborted the full mission.

    Reply ↓
    1. hk

      That was paired witb rumors about Russians hurriedly shipping some gear to Iran. No telling if that is still in Iran, asduming any of them has any truth, that is.

      Reply ↓
  24. TomDority

    Looks to me that Trump has given go ahead to this on terms where he gets to step in and stop WWIII
    After all, Donald Trump has touted his abilities as the “only” 2024 presidential candidate who can “prevent World War III.”
    What better way to gain the ‘best president ever’ than by being the man who saved the world.
    Just seems to me that this is a set up by orange man and his psychophants to get to that point…
    Of course – it would be a good thing …peace.
    But to give Trump and gang credit – let alone all those prior admins who support never ending war, genocide and etc…would mean authoritarianism until wakeing up from the next dark ages.
    Do you give credit to the persons who have created a danger; giving these same credit for saving from danger!
    Trump is a narrcasist, meglomaniac and pathological liar on just about anything. He will stop at nothing to create the scenario for WWIII to step in as savior.
    Sorry again – I should not be so cynical…. it is just that you got idiots like Lidsey Graham tweeting out ‘Game On’
    This stuff is not a game lame Lidsey Graham

    Reply ↓
  25. N

    Looks like israel used the same drone method that the Ukrainians used to target Russian bombers. Lots of small fpv drones apparently took out quite a few Iranian air defense assets

    Reply ↓
  26. The Rev Kev

    Trump is really putting the boot in here. He just came out saying-

    ‘Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump
    I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal. I told them, in the strongest of words, to “just do it,” but no matter how hard they tried, no matter how close they got, they just couldn’t get it done. I told them it would be much worse than anything they know, anticipated, or were told, that the United States makes the best and most lethal military equipment anywhere in the World, BY FAR, and that Israel has a lot of it, with much more to come – And they know how to use it. Certain Iranian hardliner’s spoke bravely, but they didn’t know what was about to happen. They are all DEAD now, and it will only get worse! There has already been great death and destruction, but there is still time to make this slaughter, with the next already planned attacks being even more brutal, come to an end. Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left, and save what was once known as the Iranian Empire. No more death, no more destruction, JUST DO IT, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE. God Bless You All!’

    https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114675456780398208

    His deal was that Iran totally give up enrichment but that there would be no guarantee that any sanctions would be lifted on them at all.

    Reply ↓
    1. Glen

      Egads! Even W wasn’t this dumb, and Trump has a less capable military to fall back on when this all goes pear shaped.

      But sure has that stench of the invasion of Iraq with no attempt to convince the rest of the world at the UN. I guess there’s not much point in trying to convince the rest of the world at this point.

      Reply ↓
    2. flora

      Tucker Carson has called for T to drop Isr, to give up on an Isr leading the US into a terrible war that’s in no way in the US interests. Recent development. Carlson has been one of T’s biggest backers.

      Reply ↓
  27. Tom Stone

    Aside from being reckless to the point of insanity it’s a Birthday gift to Trump he will never forget.

    Reply ↓
    1. Maxwell Johnston

      14 June 1946: nice catch! And Israel crossed the proverbial Rubicon on Friday the 13th…..

      RU media says that Israel used pre-delivered locally launched drones to do a lot of the targeted damage; much like the events of 1 June in RU. Speaks well for Israeli ‘intelligence’, and poorly for Iranian counterintelligence. Iran certainly had ample warning that an attack was coming.

      No indications that any Israeli jets dared to enter Iranian airspace. Apparently this is still a bridge too far.

      Damage assessment report: we will have to wait. A few big shots got whacked (that Israel knew their exact after-hours locations is a major fail on Iran’s part and a big feather in Israel’s cap–there must be a lot of unhappy campers inside Iran to facilitate this level of intel leakage), but otherwise the extent of physical damage is unclear.

      Let’s see what Iran and Israel do next.

      Between these brazen attacks and the weird Air India crash, UKR has been pushed entirely off the front pages, presenting RU with a window of opportunity to do as it wishes on that front.

      We’re in for a very hot summer.

      Reply ↓
    2. The Rev Kev

      And just in time for Trump’s military parade in which e can proclaim the might of the US military. And to think that I thought that a demented Biden was reckless in his actions against other countries. Trump has gone full war monger here thinking what could possible go wrong. And now he is saying-

      ‘I think it’s been excellent. We gave them a chance and they didn’t take it. They got hit hard, very hard. They got hit about as hard as you’re going to get hit. And there’s more to come. A lot more.’

      Reply ↓
  28. Safety First

    Russian Telegram channels have been posting furiously on the topic since this morning. Naturally.

    I would note several things.

    1. Iran(agency Fars) has apparently reported 78 civilians dead and 329 wounded in Teheran alone. I do not claim to be an expert on Iran’s internal politics, but this has got to be having a significant effect, particularly as, per the past several elections, a serious part of the electorate is in the “conservative-nationalist” camp. And Pezeshkian is not.

    So if the regime wishes to maintain its internal legitimacy, forget international prestige, it pretty much needs to do something dramatic. I’m not sure what exactly – my personal preferences would be to hit the main ports (Haifa, Eilat) and some of the conventional power stations (two coal, seven gas), but for some bizarre reason the Iranian General Staff has not been asking me for my advice or opinion…

    2. The Russians report that the Iranians have reported a radiation leak at Natanz that will require decontamination of an unspecified area. The IAEA is staying mum (it’s announcement that “radiation levels are normal” is about 9 hours old), while Iran’s own AEOI, please do not confuse the letters, has announced that the leak is a thing, but is limited to somewhere inside the facility.

    Assuming there is a leak, clearly some of the program’s components would have been hit. Satellite photos do show a couple of surface buildings destroyed, so whatever they were doing in there, that’s where the leak must have originated from.

    Incidentally, the day before this, Marandi, in an interview with Glenn Diesen, suggested that the Iranians are loathe to hand over data about their facilities and scientists to the IAEA, because it would inevitably find its way into Israeli hands. Gee.

    3. Boris Rozhin, among others, has uploaded about half a dozen videos of what looks like FPV drone strikes on Iranian SAM and ballistic missile launchers. This is a “the call is coming from inside the house” issue, literally. I would also note at least some of the strikes on appartment buildings in Teheran look very similar to the damage from Ukrainian aircraft-type drones (~50 pounds of explosives) on Russian residential buildings. So I would not exclude the possibility of smaller missiles and drones being launched from inside or near to Iran.

    As such, there seems to be a massive internal security issue to deal with, to put it mildly.

    4. There seems to be a “Schrodinger’s air defense” phenomenon taking place.

    On the one hand, the Iranians have confirmed the losses of…three launchers and one or two support vehicles? That’s basically a single battery, and they have more than a single battery.

    On the other hand, there seems to have been no effort to fire at the approaching Israeli aircraft.

    So either:

    a) Iranian air defense has taken a much more serious beating than they are willing to admit. Meh.

    b) Iranian air defense does not have the range or capability to repel Israeli aircraft launching missiles from Iraqi air space. This I can believe.

    c) Iranian air defense can cope with limited Israeli incursions, but not massive raids (where “bombers” are escorted by numerous aircraft specifically geared both to jam and to lock on and take out enemy radars and SAM launchers), and so stayed offline so as not to get blasted. Possibly.

    I mean, understand – if we are to believe the Israelis, they literally launched nearly all of their operational aircraft (assuming a ~60% availability rate). Wonder how much that cost the US taxpayers…

    Bottom line, after all this is done – and who knows when or how this is done, but I am guessing Israel wants a quick little victory, while the Iranians might not wish a years-long drawn out full scale fight – I would expect numerous missions to Moscow begging for a few S-400 batteries……….

    Reply ↓
    1. Es s Ce Tera

      4. There seems to be a “Schrodinger’s air defense” phenomenon taking place.
      On the one hand, the Iranians have confirmed the losses of…three launchers and one or two support vehicles? That’s basically a single battery, and they have more than a single battery.
      On the other hand, there seems to have been no effort to fire at the approaching Israeli aircraft.

      Or Iranian air defenses are sophisticated enough to categorize threat and non-threat and determined these missiles were not threats, or weren’t heading toward priority assets.

      Or the Iranians determined the attack was primarily to assess their EAD and it wasn’t worth lighting up to give Israel the intel.

      Reply ↓
    2. Kouros

      If the launches are from a short distance, there is little time for AD to activate, aquire targets and try to intercept. It seems they would nee to put some orders for Pantsir…

      Reply ↓
  29. RookieEMT

    I’m keeping the doomerism at bay so far, but if Iran folds, the neocons and warmongering nuts in the US will think Russia will be a pushover.

    Is it weird that I don’t want America to succeed?

    Russia and China? If the US goes in on Iran, they know diplomacy is a formality. War is coming to them in the near future.

    Reply ↓
    1. NakedEmperor

      Both Russia and China think they can “negotiate” with their enemies when if fact their enemies have only one goal – to crush them both. This why both nations are being slowly strangled by the Western imperialists. Iran’s predicament is no surprise to me. The BRICS were faulty and so the building collapsed.

      Reply ↓
      2. Kouros

        Which of the BRICS collapsed? I is for India.

        Lebanon was a collapsed state and Syria was not even a shell.

        Russia, after 3 and half years is going from strength to strength and presently, except productive capacity (number 1 China), can be considered the strongest country in the world.

        Reply ↓
        1. Kouros

          That would need a lot of persuasion from the US to convince Russia or China to step up to the scaffolding, put the rope around their necks and then kick the little chair.

          Because the US does not have the werhewhital to do that to any of the two, neither by itself nor with the allies…

          Reply ↓
        2. mega

          So, you think that there is a realistic possibility that Russia just surrenders to NATO, and Blackrock bunch, and accept EU values, because reasons. China too.

          Reply ↓
  30. XXYY

    An obvious step, at least to me, is for Iran to “close” the strait of Hormuz unless and until the hostilities by Israel end. I imagine they have elaborate plans that have been in place for years to do this; seems like an easy approach would be to simply mine the straight, similar to what we saw in the Black Sea in the Ukraine war. This could easily be justified by Iran as a measure to protect its own coast against Israeli or other attacks and invasions.

    We have seen that commercial shipping will cut and run in the face of the slightest risk, and that it’s rather easy to create this risk even as a minor military power. The US military has also shown that they have no ability to reopen sea lanes that have been “closed” by this type of action.

    I imagine that even the threat to do this would send the global economy crashing to the ground, and instantly eliminate whatever thin support Israel presently has for this ridiculous war. I imagine the Global Oil Cartel could crush the entire state of Israel without breaking a sweat.

    Reply ↓
    1. RookieEMT

      Sounds about right, I don’t think they’ve bombed the ports yet.

      Also, is Israel that crazy to purposely leave that line of action open for Iran to further help push the US to attack? The answer is absolutely yes. It’s part of their calculus.

      Reply ↓
      1. PlutoniumKun

        Closing the Straits of Hormuz is a de facto declaration of war on all countries that depend on that waterway – this includes Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. It would not shut off oil for Israel (it has other sources), and US (and Russian, Venezuelan, etc) oil producers would make enormous profits. The Israelis would be absolutely delighted if Iran tried it.

        Reply ↓
        1. NakedEmperor

          China gets lots of oil that originates in the Persian Gulf. China is quite vulnerable to regional wars in the Middle East. That is likely why it chooses not to get involved in any way other than making cries for peace.

          Reply ↓
    2. Kouros

      The obvious step for me is that Iran starts attacking Israel’s IDF, which is a citizens’ army and hides among civilians. Iran can take and use all of Israel’s justifications when bombing Gaza and replace Hamas with IDF and Israel with Iran.

      And I would target the more affluent areas of Tel Aviv and turn the tables on Israel and Bibi, such that maybe Israel undergoes a regime change instead of Iran…

      Reply ↓
      1. The Rev Kev

        You won’t get Netanyahu. As soon as he ordered this operation he apparently jumped aboard his jet – The ‘Wing of Zion’- and shot through to Greece. At the very least his jet went to Greece which makes you wonder. Maybe he can borrow some of Zelensky’s green screens and portray himself atop the Knesset roof heroically waving his fist at those Iranian missiles–

        https://trt.global/world/article/26bf219546c4

        Reply ↓
        2. Kouros

          They don’t need to get Bibi. If there is regime change in Israel and Bibi stays in Greece, that is all good, mission accomplished!

          Reply ↓
  31. Jason Boxman

    I wonder about the availability of weapons stocks for a prolonged campaign; The US has kind of blown its load in Ukraine, and we’ve given Israel every weapon that it’s asked for and more, to the amazement at times of Israel. There was a substantial ordnance burn operating around Yemen, and Trump ultimately folded on that campaign. Just what’s available for enduring support and defense of Israel in American arms lockers at this point? How long a campaign can Israel wage against Iran?

    Reply ↓
  33. David in Friday Harbor

    I’m able to access Haaretz and find it to be the only reliable source — even though they’re under military censorship.

    Today Haaretz is reporting that Mossad had set up a secret drone base inside Iran over the course of several years and that drones were used to blind Iranian air defenses and to strike many of the targets that were obviously hit by low trajectory ordinance. The question is whether Mossad has now revealed themselves and whether they can repeat this stunt once Iran reconstructs their air defense radars.

    The WSJ was reporting early yesterday that American administration officials stated that an Israeli strike on Iran was a virtual certainty this weekend. U.S. officials knew about it in advance, making them at minimum complicit under the principle stated by Yves, Qui tacet consentire videtur.

    The Israeli economy is shutting-down; some airlines have suspended all service until the end of October. What’s clear is that Netanyahu, Smotrich, Ben-Gvir, and the entire Jabotinskyite fascist death-cult leadership will hide in their well-stocked bunkers while ordinary Israelis get a tiny taste of what life is like in the Palestinian panopticon — which will likely only serve to stoke further madness.

    Reply ↓
    1. raspberry jam

      State of emergency declared. Commercial airliners have been moved off the main runway at Ben-Gurion, apparently. Even El-Al is grounded. US airlines have started canceling flights to Tel Aviv through August.

      I’ve been in the midst of planning a business trip next month for an off site with my Israeli colleagues in southern Europe. I am pretty sure it is going to be postponed or canceled given the events overnight; Netanyahu is already talking about a long fight.

      Reply ↓
      1. Glen

        Was reported on Judge Nap that Bibi flew on the “Wings of Zion” (state plane?) to Athens so he left before the Iranian missiles flew. Was that a planned trip?

        Reply ↓
        1. raspberry jam

          I think he was back before or after the first big barrage (or he travels with a stage for making state announcements); he addressed the country after the first one and before most recent one about half an hour ago imploring the Iranian people to ‘rise up against their oppressive leaders’.

          Reply ↓
  34. nigel rooney

    The effects of “regime change” on Russia and China would be “interesting”, particularly in regards to oil, amongst other things. Not a positive development for them, I’m imagining.

    Reply ↓
  35. abierno

    Would be interested in some comment on the role of MEK in this situation. Although touted by Western media as representing Iranian contrarian interests, they have been considered a terrorist group since their affiliation with Saddam Hussein,, and their interests are recognized to not align with Iranians seeking economic and other changes. MEK has been known to have longstanding relations with Mossad and to be a known tool for Israel, US/UK/EU disruptive actions in Iran. Information would suggest considerable internal, fifth column sabotage was an aspect of Israeli operations. Unquestionably, Iranian efforts are at work identifying and eliminating such threats. One should reflect on how much information the Iranians have gained regarding such internal threat, in addition to the trove of information smuggled out of Israel.

    On another note, images from Tehran and other cities indicate high levels of damage to civilian architectures. Need a requiem for all of the children/adolescents/women/elders who died as a result of this poorly considered operation.

    Reply ↓
  36. Oldtimer

    Iran’s regime is doomed.
    The technological gap is immense.
    Israel (with US backing) can assassinate their leaders at will.
    They can take out the supreme leader if they wanted to.
    As their regime falls, Israel will be creating a bigger enemy long term, a democratic prosperous Iran that will close the technological gap and things will get ugly again, but for Israel this time.

    Reply ↓
      1. vao

        The new polity would be as democratic as the ones that rose up from the ruble of the overthrown regimes of Somalia, Iraq, Libya, Syria…

        Reply ↓
        1. JonnyJames

          Another historical irony: the Mohamed Mossadegh govt. was democratically elected, yet the UK and US overthrew it in 1953 and installed the Pahlavi regime. The hypocrisy of the US/UK/Israel know no rivals.

          Reply ↓
          1. vao

            Everybody refers to Mossadegh, but there are other cases where Iran tried to go its own way and was thwarted by Western powers:

            1) From 1905 to 1911, Persians shook the ruling autocratic monarchy and replaced it with a constitutional monarchy. The UK and Russia intervened militarily to re-establish the old regime.

            2) In 1941, Persia was trying to remain neutral in WWII. This did not fit the strategic plans of the Allies, and so the UK and the USSR invaded Persia, which they occupied till 1946. During that time, Iran became an important conduit for Lend-Lease equipment to the USSR.

            3) The 1953 overthrow of the democratic government led by Mossadegh is well-known — an operation carried out by the the intelligence services of the USA and the UK.

            4) After the Iranian revolution overthrew the Shah, Western powers, led by the USA with the particular complicity of the UK, prodded Iraq to attack Iran — an exhausting war that lasted 8 years.

            Mmh. It seems that the UK has always been messing with Iran. As it has been with Russia. Perhaps there is a reason why Iranians call it the “small Satan”.

            Reply ↓
      1. Deluxe

        As regular visitors of the comment sections must have noticed earlier. Recognizable username, and consistent quality of analysis.

        Reply ↓
  37. HH

    It looks like Israel is gambling on the limited accuracy of the Iranian missiles that get through their defenses. In today’s wave of Iranian missiles attacking Tel Aviv, it looks like about 10% of the missiles got past the interceptors. One of them hit within a few hundred meters of the Kirya defense headquarters. Iran may be saving their most accurate missiles for after Israel’s interceptors are depleted. All the cards will be on the table soon.

    Reply ↓
    1. nyleta

      This won’t stop whatever the immediate results are. Iran needs to take a page out of Russia’s book and partially mobilise and open a hybrid land war inside Iraq next door where they will have support. The US is terrified of having to put a land army into the Middle East. Sticking to dueling missiles is right up the US/Isreal alley.

      Reply ↓
      1. ChrisRUEcon

        Oooooooooh … my wallet is out, and I’m ready to tap.

        However …

        > The US is terrified of having to put a land army into the Middle East.

        … I think we are in straaaaange times. I’m not so sure this fully applies with genocidal warmongers at the helm.

        Reply ↓
        1. Jason Boxman

          Back when Battlefield 2 from EA Games came out in 2004 or thereabouts, the two major powers being fought were Iran (via MEC) and China. At the time, it seemed ridiculous and implausible.

          I guess too many people in Washington took that game seriously.

          Although including Russia would have been equality implausible, so much so, I guess the game designers didn’t even bother, Russia being a nuclear power and all, but there so far it isn’t American regular military engaged in combat.

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          1. moog

            It’s the other way around. Hollywood and games are doing mental conditioning of people for the future plans of Washington. Iran was on US “to do” list since forever, and also on the shortlist of “7 countries in 5 years”
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUCwCgthp_E
            I don’t play those games, but I’m positive there are plenty of Russians as the bad guys too.

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        2. urdsama

          With the current state of US politics, putting US troops in harms way would erode MAGA support real fast.

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          1. mrsyk

            Agreed. And casualties will be a thing (that nobody is going to want to own). Hey nyleta, that’s an interesting gambit. Note that it has the potential to swap the roles of provoker/provoked.

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          2. ChrisRUEcon

            > putting US troops in harms way would erode MAGA support real fast.

            Would it, though? A major component of MAGA philosophy is xenophobia, of which islamophobia is a substantial part. Tie that to Evangelical support of Israel, and I think Trump can find a way to spin a new Middle East ground war into “Muricka! Fuck yeah!” impetus.

            And remember, this benefits the MIC …

            Economic pain always trumps (pun unintended) warmongering, so I think if Trump wants to sell war, he’s going to have to buy back good faith by giving up things like Medicaid gutting and 1%-friendly-tax bills.

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            1. urdsama

              Yes.

              The only thing holding it together for Trump right now among MAGA types is going after the immigrants. If troops are required, most likely a fair number that are sent will be from families supporting Trump.

              The “Muricka! F0ck yeah!” will end as soon as their children come home in a pine box.

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          1. ChrisRUEcon

            Perhaps. How much does Trump want to honour his campaign promise to “end the wars” is the question. We’ve seen intra-MAGA tension over Israel/Ukraine – are there enough sane heads in the MAGA White House to arrest the fall towards #CrusadeV? I don’t know …

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    2. ChrisRUEcon

      > Iran may be saving their most accurate missiles for after Israel’s interceptors are depleted. All the cards will be on the table soon.

      #Buy

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  39. Anthony Martin

    Given the demonstrated intellectual capacity, the decison making capacity, the planning capacity, and the logistical capacity of General Bonespurs Taco, Hegseth, and other members of his Administration, one has to wonder where events will end up. Letting Bibi lead the charge is another factor. Trump, once again, seems to pull his ‘plausible deniability card”: I didn’t help or know anything about it. The problem now isi if Iran doesn’t capitulate to Isreal in the field of battle or to the US at the negotiating table, then what is next? Karp is wrong, Trump is entertaining a four front war: Russia, China, Iran, and half the US. If Iran retains the abiility to retailiate, then anything approaching a mediated truce seems to mean Netanyahu is gone, Iran will be compleed to acquire a nuclear weapon (Russia – give us a few or we will build); and the US Marines in LA will be wondering whre they will be sent next.

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    2. Carolinian

      Supposedly Iran has many thousands of missiles–are unlikely to run out. How true is that about Israel?

      Here it’s claimed that Dimona has been hit.

      https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2025/06/thaad-where-are-you.html

      Israel claims to have destroyed the above part of Natanz but that’s just a few buildings. And in any case the Iranians weren’t even building a bomb. It’s the missiles that matter. If they continue to launch and not run out then a war of attrition that Israel is going to lose.

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  40. mahna

    https://x.com/rinalu_/status/1933587949104345548
    To everyone freaking out after Israel hit Iran and saying “Russia better take notes”…
    Guys, come on. Russia took notes years ago.
    Zhirinovsky called it all in 2019: who, when, how, and why.
    You’re just catching up on headlines. We’ve been way past the analysis stage.
    Check it out 👇

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    1. dao

      So, the plan is for the US/Israel to nuke Iran out of existence. Which is ironic, because Israel fears Iran would nuke them out of existence “if Iran ever got hold of nuclear bombs”.

      So better to nuke Iran now, than wait for Iran to nuke Israel. Got it. Sounds like a perfect PR story to justify doing the unthinkable which Zhirinovsky predicted.

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  41. Socal Rhino

    Best to wait a couple of days to let some of the disinformation/psyops resolve themselves. Will also wait for Unusual Whales to tell us how many congress critters bought WTI calls on Wednesday.

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  42. NotThePilot

    Welp, it’s finally started. Good job, Trump, you’ve successfully helped Netanyahu finally push the US over the cliff (maybe I’m wrong, but I think time will prove me right. Ten years tops). I’m not actually Persian, and maybe I’m wrong about all of these, but I do feel that a lot of people commenting are really missing a few things:

    1. On “decapitation”: it looks like the Mossad’s initial operation like Spiderweb in Ukraine was definitely a tactical success, but what good will it do them? Even more than the initial casualties being overestimated, never forget most Iranians (and not just the clerics or nat. sec. types) do genuinely have a martyrdom ideal. Plus the most cynical ones that don’t are arguably like the Democrats in the US; nobody likes them, even themselves.

    The Iranian culture & social system (aka “nezami”) takes “everybody dies so it’s best to die fighting for one’s highest belief” as an axiom. I’ll leave it as an exercise to the reader to deduce how much killing even 100 so-called VIPs slows down a society like that. And yes, the true state of Lebanese Hezbollah is a direct corollary of this.

    2. On “holding back”: never forget the Iranians are extremely patient and love feigned retreats (it is called a Parthian shot after-all). Besides a lot of the initial damage likely being from infiltrated drones (as Ukraine does in Russia), consider that they made the decision to hold-fire with AD at first and “take the hits”. If the rumors of multiple Israeli planes being downed in the later waves are true, this would match.

    3. On where this goes if it becomes a long war: Iran’s missiles, drones, and regional allies have always been its focus for deterring a war, but I don’t think that’s really ever been what Iran planned to rely on if a war reaches full-tilt anyway. Their mobilization potential and ability to wage a ground campaign, even if units must be dispersed, is the hammer. It would probably take several years, but I wouldn’t assume that they can’t eventually reach Israeli territory if it comes to it.

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    1. ChrisFromGA

      Thanks, good comment. I wonder too what would happen if Iran were able to get Iraq to at least stand down and allow passage of their army; then they’d still need to go through Syria. Given how weak of a “government” Syria currently has, it is hard to see them offering much resistance, especially since Israel conveniently destroyed most of the SAA bases and equipment.

      Still, that’s a lot of ground for any army to cover and would be logistically stretched, to say the least.

      What about commando raids? Iran has submarines and could try going up the Red Sea. Or just send suicide waves of low-flying helicopters, maybe under the cover of heavy drone waves to scare off any F-35s.

      I don’t think we’re going to like what comes next.

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      1. NotThePilot

        I honestly wouldn’t presume to know what an actual forward deployment would look like, but I think the issues with massing troops (as shown in the Ukraine war) would be the main issue, even if you factor in deterrence (Russian nuclear umbrella?) against the Israelis trying a WMD. Ironically though, the war with Iraq (chemical weapons backed by American ISR) arguably gave Iran long & hard experience with that decades ago.

        As someone else above pointed out the parallels with Israel’s attack and Pearl Harbor, I imagine Iran’s strategy would be (and sort of has been) a kind of island-hopping, only by political regime instead. I imagine the goal is to gain space, political as much as physical, and logistical links for friendly local forces to operate, with actual Iranian soldiers moving quietly among them.

        Syria would be interesting; I have to admit I was totally surprised when the old government collapsed, and while it would help Iran to have an easier route to Lebanon, I don’t think they would want to force their way in. I still feel there’s been a dog-that-didn’t-bark element to the government collapsing last year that hasn’t been entirely explained. Some of it may even be a sense of “give the Syrians enough rope to hang themselves” with their new government.

        I’ve said it before, but I would actually keep my eye on Jordan. If the current government falls and a new one willing to confront the Israelis replaces it, that links a route through Iraq directly into the West Bank.

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  43. Jason Boxman

    It seems like Iran has to build nuclear weapons now, and will need to test detonate to prove the capacity to Israel. This really might get out of hand. And quickly.

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  45. Ellery O'Farrell

    A hypothetical: As has been suggested, Israel is losing for one or another reason. What does it do? My guess is that it uses its nuclear weapons, which number about 300-400 according to estimates posted here, to destroy everything in Iran that’s above ground. Does anyone disagree?
    If that happens, and Iran is a radioactive wasteland but for bunkers and weapons facilities, what then?
    I’m sorry to ask this question. I definitely hope we don’t go there (though I also don’t want Iran to lose, given the history, the fact that Israel has nuclear weapons and therefore dominance, and Iran’s need to have a corresponding deterrent against Israel).
    But it’s still, in my NYC location, Friday the 13th.

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    1. Yves Smith Post author

      As indicated in post, Iran is widely believed to have a dead hand missile launch program. Many of its missile bunkers are so deep as to be believed to be impervious even to a nuclear strike.

      Iran destroys Israel. Takes out desalination plants and electrical generation, and a few other targets.

      Iran torches Saudi oil fields.

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    2. Acacia

      what then?

      Israel, assuming it survives the Iranian dead hand, becomes the second nation in history to use nuclear weapons, except this time the death toll is in the tens of millions of civilians dead, in a war of aggression that the Zionists unequivocally started, etc. etc.

      I would not expect history to be kind.

      At present, Israel and Iran are exchanging missiles, as the Iranian “Operation Severe Punishment” has begun.

      https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/06/12/israel-attacks-iran-tehran-explosions/

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  46. Skippy

    So …. considering the international economic drop back it seems the West only knows how to double down on a strategy that has never worked – for decades. Its failures are always pawned off on/externalized on lesser nations fighting having their sovereignty being stripped away, oligarchs set up and the unwashed find solace in regional religion as suffers.

    Best part is this – is – driving any nation outside the G7 to BRICKS as most remember colonialism of the West and after that cultural experaince seek/build a new reality. Sans the social/political network in play by the self proclaimed superior Western sorts that were born too, went too right schools, et al.

    Agree with other up thread that Iran could flatten Israel if it wanted, sorta like Russia could flatten Ukraine if its was so disposed but, that would be just like the Wests history when confronted and others don’t submit to its decrees.

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