One way to make sense of the ceasefire whiplash of the last 24 hours is that it was an Israel ploy, likely to succeed, to give Trump a stake in the exchanges of fire between Israel and Iran. Before, despite Trump repeatedly admitting that his real objective was “unconditional surrender” and “regime change,” the US was hewing to the fiction that its objective was the elimination of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. That was consistent with Trump’s initial posturing, that the strikes on Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz were to be “one and done,” that Iran should suck them up and get back to the capitulation negotiating table….which Israel, with US backing, had kicked over in its June 13 attack.
For those a bit behind the state of play, last night US time, Iran attacked an emptied US air base in Qatar, and according to some accounts, also a covert US base in Syria that is protecting oil (which is being largely if not entirely trucked into Israel). Iran warned the US of the attack. Trump then grandly announced a ceasefire starting at 4:00 AM, when the Iranians said they were not given any agreement and appear not to have even been given a heads up.
Iran had called for a ceasefire before negotiations, so they could hardly cavil about this extremely irregular process. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi tap danced a bit but mainly stuck to Iran’s pre-existing position, that Iran would stop firing on Israel if Israel stopped shooting at Iran.
But despite the ceasefire antics, that did not happen, or at least well enough to satisfy Iran, which had not agreed to any particular terms, which includes the start time. Israel made a significant attack on Iran right before the Israel-US designated commencement, and Iran shot back.
This ceasefire was such a transparent bit of theater as to be a joke. Consider additional uncomfortable facts:
Alastair Crooke has stressed that ceasefires typically break down in 2 to 3 weeks. He and others, notably Putin, have pointed out that effective ceasefires require agreement on many details, particularly the designation of independent monitors in sufficient numbers to keep tabs adequately. Nothing like this has happened.
Israel has a long-standing history of not respecting ceasefires. For recent examples, see Here’s how Israel is repeatedly violating the Lebanon ceasefire from Aljazeera last November.
And now we have Israel squealing that Iran violated this fake ceasefire so it will go back on the attack. From the Guardian:
Normal Israeli duplicity has gotten a very big, if also extremely clumsy, force multiplier in the form of Trump. So expect more extreme Truth Social utterances once Trump can get to a keyboard.
Update 7:00 AM EDT: Just as this post went live, Trump made his first pronouncement. From Associated Press:
President Donald Trump says both Israel and Iran violated ceasefire terms with attacks following an early Tuesday deadline to cease hostilities.
Trump made the comments to reporters at the White House before departing for the NATO summit at The Hague. He expressed disappointment about the continued attacks.
“They violated it but Israel violated it too,” Trump said. He added, ”I’m not happy with Israel.”
The Hill has a more pointed account:
“They don’t know what the f— they’re doing,” Trump told reporters at the White House before taking off for a trip to The Hague for the NATO Summit.
In a Truth Social post around the same time, Trump singled out Israel, in a remarkable move for the U.S. president, telling the longtime American ally: “ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!”
Back to the original draft.
However, one has to wonder (aside from continued Israel derangement that the US can rescue Israel from the mess it created), how Israeli officials can think resuming the conflict is a bright idea. This is well in the terrain of the saying attributed to Einstein, “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” Israel is running out of air defense missiles. They aren’t hugely effective at the best of times (for instance, versus Iran’s hypersonics). Everyone knows additional Patriot missiles are scarce globally, and batteries even more so, and the US can’t begin to get enough produced to meet its various demands.
And when Israel is denuded of air defenses, which will happen on current trajectories, Iran can do plenty of damage with mere drones. No need for the high end kit.
Confirming our repeated “all tactics and no strategy” assessment of Trump, former UK diplomat Ian Proud weighs in (admittedly one step behind the Israel vow to start shooting again):
I met my fellow Realists last night to discuss the latest in Iran, after the attack on Al-Udeid airbase in Qatar.
That attack, which appears to have been carefully choreographed to demonstrate an Iranian response with limited scope for escalation, would have raised concerns in Doha and other Gulf States of the economic cost to them of entanglement in Netanyahu’s war.
It is interesting that the Iranian and Qataris this morning have spoken and reaffirmed the importance of their ties.
But the ceasefire that emerged on the back of the Iranian strike, heralded by Trump, appears already to have broken by both sides. That means the risk of other Iranian strikes on US facilities in the Gulf will remain and the pressure on Trump to up the ante will grow, in particular from the Israel lobby.
Keep in mind that Israel is already taking serious damage, at least relative to what its heretofore sheltered population had come to expect:
Israeli media admits: Iran emptied Tel Aviv
Channel 12 television:
🔹 Iran's direct attacks on Tel Aviv turned this city, which was a symbol of vitality and energy, into a city without inhabitants, triggering a wave of mass emigration.
🔹 The city that was always known for its… pic.twitter.com/k98AMGSxfr
— Sprinter Observer (@SprinterObserve) June 23, 2025
Iran did all this to Israel without an Air Force!
Think about it!
Israel, even with the backing of NATO members, was humiliated by Iran!
pic.twitter.com/B9kw34ENxz— Gabe (@GabeZZOZZ) June 24, 2025
Recall that Alastair Crooke has also pointed out that Israel’s raison d’etre was to be a safe place for Jews. That is no longer true and may never be true again.
Iran has also suffered real damage (although how much is still not well known) and it already suffered from a very weak economy. However, North Korea is in vastly worse shape on that front yet still has formidable missile technology. We Westerners like to think that the legitimacy of a government depends on delivering rising prosperity, when at times of acute stress, other factors come into play. Vanessa Beeley points out in Trump yelling ‘ceasefire’ doesn’t mean ‘ceasefire’:
Iran has seen its regional popularity explode since Israel began its aggression. The popularity among the people of the region is unprecedented. If the US wanted to isolate Iran, Israel’s aggression has had the opposite effect. Also unprecedented and perhaps unexpected, after the efforts by the West to orchestrate internal divide in Iran, national cohesion within Iran is at its highest since 1979. The Western-backed opposition were completely overwhelmed by the backlash from Iranian society. Their isolation will not recover.
Many commentators, particularly Alexander Mercouris long form, have pointed out that the US bombing nuclear sites and the IEA not saying a peep shreds whatever little cred it had left. Even the Russians, which are nuclear-non-proliferation hawks, are pushing back against IEA demands:
“We searched and searched, but found nothing.” — Lavrov on the IAEA’s demands that Iran disclose the location of its enriched uranium:
“Right now, IAEA Director General Grossi is demanding that Iran grant access to its nuclear facilities to verify where the enriched material is… pic.twitter.com/4qztHzW6AU
— Zlatti71 (@Zlatti_71) June 24, 2025
In the meantime, all is not entirely quiet on the Strait of Hormuz front:
Maritime activity slows in Gulf
Kpler vessel tracking indicates declines in maritime traffic in the Mideast #Gulf since the Israel-Iran conflict began on Friday, June 13.
In addition to the risks of conflict escalation, subsequent navigation system interference and disruption… pic.twitter.com/NzPmm88k5M
— Kpler (@Kpler) June 23, 2025
Ah I see the situation with jamming in the Persian Gulf now via @gCaptain: A significant increase in GPS jamming and spoofing incidents along the Iranian coast is raising serious concerns about maritime safety in one of the world’s most critical shipping channels. According to…
— Andrew Revkin 🌎 ✍🏼 🪕 ☮️ (@Revkin) June 23, 2025
Readers have suggested that Iran actually has weeks worth of oil supply already on tankers at sea, which would buffer any short-term impact on China. Not sayin’ that Iran will do more than signal-jamming harassment, but if it feels it has to escalate, this IMHO is less bad than other not-great options.
Update 8:00 AM EDT: In a fresh interview, Larry Wilkerson says his contacts say that if Iran were to close the Strait of Hormuz, it would do so only for a week or so to get everyone’s attention and say it would close it again and for longer if necessary.
Back to the original post:
There are also stirrings in Iraq but it’s not yet clear what this portends:
Several Drones hit and destroyed French radars in 3 Iraqi (not US) military installations at Ali Bin Abi Taleb, Balad and al-Taji. Baghdad is not willing to accuse any side.
These drones did not come from outside the country where several US military bases enjoy total dominance…— Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺 (@ejmalrai) June 24, 2025
Beeley noted:
In the early hours of Tuesday morning, multiple attacks were reported across Iraq. Taji Area, north of Baghdad. Baghdad International Airport. Balad – Salah Al Din Governorate. Balad Air Base, Al Bakr Air Base. Nasiryah – Dhi Qar governorate, Imam Ali Air Base in southern Iraq. No group has yet claimed responsibility but the attacks suggest a high level of coordination on the ground.
Yet more proof that the US is all in for Israel:
Trump's State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce says America is "the greatest country on earth next to Israel" pic.twitter.com/0jYxTh52Qh
— Ken Klippenstein (@kenklippenstein) June 22, 2025
This is cringe-making.
While there is more commentary on US and Israeli fecklessness, given that the ceasefire is already falling apart, it seems premature to speculate further until we see what the “gang that can’t shoot straight” Team Trump does next. We’re not in “assume the brace position” mode yet, but risks are still far too much in play.
From Craig Murray´s post:
The Phantom Ceasefire
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2025/06/the-phantom-ceasefire/
“(…)
You can never trust the Israelis – or indeed the Americans – with either a ceasefire or a negotiation. Reuters reported that a senior Iranian official had confirmed the ceasefire had been agreed. Israel then repeated precisely what I had seen in Beirut – massive carpet bombing of the city just before the 3.30am deadline for the Israel/Iran ceasefire.
(image Beirut)
That picture is Beirut literally minutes before the ceasefire came into effect. Israel then proceeded to violate the ceasefire anyway, and has done so virtually every single day in the past months of ceasefire, often several times a day, racking up over 1,000 violations.
The Iranians very sensibly responded to last night’s carpet bombing with a missile salvo. Israel has claimed a violation of the ceasefire (as ever the aggressor is the “victim”) and fighting has resumed.
I believe this may be for the best. Although it does benefit Netanyahu – who for domestic reasons is desperate to avoid peace – the Israelis would never have observed a ceasefire and would have used it to replenish their exhausted missile defence systems, with help from the USA, UK and the other genocide participants.
The Iranian “attack” on the US airbase in Qatar was purely performative. They used old, expendable, low level missiles certain to be shot down and warned that they were coming. It was part of the structure of Trump’s off ramp.
(…)”
But read the whole piece it´s not long.
> and would have used it to replenish their exhausted missile defence systems, with help from the USA, UK and the other genocide participants
One hundred and eleven-ty percent!
It appears the Patriot PAC3 is the most capable AD system Israel has to shoot down higher speed Iranian ballistic missiles, but good luck getting replacement interceptor missiles. Patrick Armstrong’s latest article, covered by Bernard today on Moon of Alabama, has a link that gives 600 as goal for 2025 US production of PAC3 MSE missiles, or 50 a month. How many of those $5M missiles can the US supply to Israel right now?
https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/production_plan_on_patriot_missiles_for_2025_announced_it_will_need_every_contractor_to_quicken_up-13981.html
Here’s link to Armstrong piece:
https://patrickarmstrong.ca/2025/06/24/trumpery-making-something-out-of-hot-air-and-prestidigitation/
I’ve been googling “senator” under “news” to see which Senator would be the first to attack Trump for not starting WWIII.
It looks like the winner is Chris Coons (D-Del) on Morning Joe this morning!
https://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/amp-video/mmvo242159685566
well done A++++++++
Yves’ and NC analyses save the day in this awful environment. The difference with MSM outlets is getting abysmal. In favour of NC of course.
A+ use of fecklessness
This is all so bewildering to me.
Trump launched B2s to “Guam” – everyone knew they were heading to Iran
Told Iran ahead of time so they could move their stuff
Claims total destruction, but when they are asked about “why no radiation” their response is “don’t worry about it believe us” (even when Iran said they were given warning and moved everything)
Iran shoots at an empty base and tells us ahead of time.
Trump claims victory – his “peace through strength” oxymoron
And now Bibi is doing typical Bibi things
Oh and somehow this is all Obama/Bidens fault.
I need a nap and it’s only 7am…
> This is all so bewildering to me.
It’s jaw dropping. It’s beyond kayfabe. One fighter makes an attacking move and the commentator yells: “He’s going for The Ceasefre. I don’t believe it, Bob. He’s used that so often I doubt anyone falls for it.” And Bob replies, “Sorry to disappoint you there, George, but The Guardian, BBC and NYT already fell for it.”
The question on my mind has been:
Can’t Iran shoot down any illegal aircraft that’s over their airspace? Are they not capable of shooting down US bombers? Or did they just let this charade happen?
Are there any aircraft to shoot down?
A good comment on MoA made the point that we should start with the null hypothesis. Namely, that no Israeli or American planes ever entered Iranian airspace.
There is no good evidence either way – the damage seen from satellites at Fordow could easily be from cruise missiles, or stand-off weapons launched safely from Saudi or Syrian airspace.
And on the side of “Kabuki theater” we do have circumstantial evidence:
+ The Kabuki response from Iran
+ The fact that the only people claiming that there were air-strikes from inside Iran are known liars of ill repute. Netanyahu, Trump. Trump in particular is a pathological liar, of known bad character (3 wives, affairs with multiple women, including a pr0n star.)
Armchair Warlord and Simplicius seem to agree with “null hypotheses” assumption. Armchair Warlord’s followup post provides pictures of WWII bunker buster bombs, and resulting craters, to compare with MOP GBU-57A/B alleged to have been used on Iran.
Looking at post strike Maxar satellite images of Fordow and earlier images with a line of trucks to calibrate road widths, it appears the six new craters are roughly 30-40 feet wide, whereas comparable WWII bunker buster craters appear to be roughly 80-120 feet wide. If I got the image interpretation right, this would lend support for null hypotheses, which makes the US attack on Iran an elaborate and expensive example of what Russians call maskirovka.
https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1936629818914755029
https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1936849301617152103
From what I understand (I’m no expert!) modern bunker busters are designed to use their energy more efficiently than World War II versions. A wider hole, like those of WWII bunker busters means much less efficient use of the force of the bomb with much less force deep down. In aid of this is that, modern bunker busters bury themselves much more deeply. For this reason they are made of very thick steel that slams deep into the bedrock before blowing up, resulting in a narrower hole above. However the lack of increased radioactivity may mean the bomb has failed to achieve its goal of penetrating the thick layer of protective concrete for the reasons Ted Postol has explained in Dialogue Works.
Thanks for your reply! So I found a crater calculator from Purdue U., plugged in #s from Wikipedia entry on GBU-57. I assumed terminal velocity was close but less than speed of sound (2.77m/sec vs. 2.92m/sec). Of course, if it was going faster, the crater would be wider. Result is a crater of ~85 feet diameter rim to rim, confirming previous guesstimate, and provisional ‘null’ hypotheses that no bunker busters were used at Fordow. https://apps.science.purdue.edu/eaps/crater/cgi/crater_c.cgi
Acacia: Are there any aircraft to shoot down?
Shrodinger’s Israeli Air Force. Till someone actually opens the box — as this is the big question the Fog of War hasn’t let us answer yet — we won’t know if they were ever actually there in Iranian airspace
The bomb holes are there. Is there any missile capable of carrying such large and heavy “bunker buster” bombs? I doubt it but I could be wrong. Looks to me as if the US gov wants an off ramp as per an agreement with the Iranianss but “Bibi” is doing his best to sabotage any peace process. He’s determined to become a Zionist hero by destroying Iran, which is his life’s work; the alternative, ending his days in jail and ignominy for corruption is simply unthinkable; he’ll rather end his days fighting to the last Israeli from his bunker or at least that is what it seems to me.
St Jacques: Is there any missile capable of carrying such large and heavy “bunker buster” bombs?
Is there anything besides a USAF B2 — emphatically not an Israeli airforce plane — or some such US aircraft that’s big enough to have delivered such large, heavy “bunker buster” bombs?
Seriously, it’s still unclear if the Israeli airforce is actually doing anything.
I confused the two airforces, lol.
Trump gets some slack from the Iranian leadership for the same reason he gets some slack from Putin — there is an awareness that he is under intense pressure to escalate, and a belief that he probably doesn’t want to.
The US “heads-up” signaled a desire on the part of DJT to not go to war; the Iranians reciprocated before their reply strike. Trump has other fish to fry, and so do the Iranians; US/Iran war serves neither’s interest.
I think it’s a case of saner heads trying to prevail, and more or less, so far, succeeding, in spite of strong pressures in the direction of insanity.
Methinks you’re on to something there–recognition from both Iran and Russia that the pressures on Trump from the blob and the Zionists to escalate can only be resisted if Iran’s responses to Israeli and US provocation are measured and proportional. The “Iran is weak” claim is demonstrably false now, given the damage to Israel. Plan B will likely be a step-up in terrorism and sectarian strife efforts inside Iran. OTOH, there is no sanity clause among the blob arguing in favor of stepping off the gas pedal, and thereby risking the humiliation of defeat/stalemate, so they may continue to dig their hole deeper, assuming the other side will back down rather than risk a nuclear confrontation. That the craziest of the crazies are bent on using tactical nukes for the “win” seems somewhat more likely at this juncture, if given a pretext. That we may be relying on Trump to be the sane one in the room is itself crazy. “We make our own reality” has finally come home to roost.
Agreed. Now it has become: “We make our own reality and then blow it all up.”
Why do you think they want to use “tactical” nukes?
“Peace through strength” dates back at least to Nixon. American presidents come and go, but the foreign policy remains virtually unchanged.
Beats ‘Strength Through Joy’ though.
> “They violated it but Israel violated it too,” Trump said. He added, ”I’m not happy with Israel.”
Hang. BiBi. Out. To. Dry.
I wonder whether there might be leverage to pressure Israel to lift the siege of Gaza.
DJT might earn that Peace Prize yet.
Maybe Trump can send him a strongly worded tweet.
With the assist from the “sane” Mossad interests, perhaps we will soon see a “Blue and White” colour revolution, inside Israel?
I watched Brian Berletic’s piece this morning and he is quite upset about this ceasefire. I fully understand with his reasoning and basically agree with his premise. He is likely right about the over-all unreliability of the West. They have proved to be incapable of agreements and they will use it as a ploy to attack at the time of their choosing.
I am more sanguine about this situation because it appears to me that even if a pause allows both sides to re-arm themselves, the advantage goes to Iran. They already have vastly superior technology in regards to missiles and it seems likely that their air defense network will be greatly improved if there is enough time for Russia or China to send their systems. The weakness of western weapon systems has been shown and the inability of the west to manufacture replacements in a timely manner is a given. The idea that the West will use this opportunity to now shift the focus on China is laughable.
Is speaking about „humiliation“ relevant? If you think wars are a football game, maybe, but if you speak about wars as realist you see what you can do, cannot do, what has been achieved or not achieved. Israels was „humiliated“ by Hamas a lot of times, if I remember it correctly, but only the Palestinians have to handle starvation, thirst and death. Are the zionists motivated by „humiliation“? It seems like they are enough motivated to genocide just because they are brim-full of hatred towards the other.
Humiliation is relevant insofar as Israel’s existence is guaranteed by it being the unmatched power in the region, capable of dictating terms unilaterally to countries that at best despise it (even if the comprador elites don’t).
Hamas’ blow was clearly significant, and still is, insofar as it has made Israel burn all of its international goodwill permanently, and put the country in a much more perilous situation. If they could just shrug off the blows, this clearly would have been an insane decision.
I’d adhere to the idea of common security in the West Asia; no-one is secure until everyone is secure. That, of course, is orthogonal to most of the Zionist movement and to the self-identification as an eternal victim.
Oh, I agree, I was just parroting analyses from more knowledgeable people such as Crooke who in the aftermath of Oct. 7th noted that Israel has a fixation with establishing deterrence, which was shattered then and has yet to be regained.
“it has made Israel burn all of its international goodwill permanently”
Who is on the list of countries that have, through action, stopped providing any material or economic support for Israel?
Who said its material and economic support comes from international goodwill? The argument was simply that it is now internationally hated. Whereas this has not yet had much in the way of consequences, as is obvious, it does not mean that crossing the genocide rubicon will not carry any consequences in the future. The most critical point being that nearly everyone under a certain age cohort (to avoid the term “boomer”) either hates it or wants to have nothing to do with it might in due course mean it’ll end up isolated, which for a settler colony can prove fatal.
It’s something to keep an eye on.
“Who said its material and economic support comes from international goodwill?”
That goes for oh so many situations.
But support is support.
In football, and in wars, it’s the end score that matters. Cheerleading about „humiliation“ is just entertainment for the crowd.
You have to have empathy to feel humiliation.
Israel can say whatever they want but time is not on their side. They are running out of missiles to shoot down Iranian ones, they are sustaining heavy damage on a daily basis, people have abandoned Tel Aviv, Israel has had to stop all Israelis from leaving the country taking the prize from Gaza of being the largest open-air prison in the world, and their economy is swirling around the gurgler. That last point deserves more mention. I read somewhere where this war is costing them nearly a billion dollars a day when you factor in all costs. It is not sustainable. So it seems that Israel’s finance minister has not only been demanding money from the UK, France and Germany for their war against Iran but also the Gulf states like the UAE where it went down like a lead balloon-
https://www.newarab.com/news/uae-slams-israels-smotrich-over-iran-war-funding-demand
It is highly unlikely that Israel will run out of air defense missiles, just as it is unlikely they will run out of 2000 pound bombs. Israel obtains weaponry from many sources, as do all belligerent nations. The United States will make sure that Israel has all the arms it needs to continue being the preeminent military force in the region. As far as money is concerned, Uncle Sam (US taxpayers) will ultimately pick up the tab. Remember, the rallying cry is now “Israel First”.
The point here being that since The West has outsourced most of it’s industrial capacity to The East, the 15% of the globe that is still rooting for The West is incapable of producing enough missiles no matter how much money they have.
South Korea is selling a Russian designed system KM-SAM, but Saudi-Arabia has now waited over a year and a half the batteries it ordered in 2023. Then there would be the time required to train crews and integrate the new system into the existing systems. At least months away, even if SKA would donate their to Israel.
USA could, perhaps, buy missiles and systems from China or Russia, but those negotiations would likely take some time and come with strings attached.
Huh??? This is serious Making Shit Up. I take umbrage at you misinforming readers and making me waste time cleaning up after your informational messes.
1. Israel is ALREADY running out of air defense missiles.
2. US allis are globally short of air defense missiles. The US never gave it priority.
3. US suppliers can not even remotely replenish depleted stocks in a time frame of less than years at current production rates. Those production rates have been made worse by China clamping down on rare earths supply.
4. Israel had to get bunker busters from the US to use in Gaza. The US has limited supplies of them too. For instance, the US made only 20 of the super big ones it claims to have used, as in wasted, in Iran: https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-israel-conflict-latest-news/card/the-u-s-used-its-biggest-bunker-busters-in-warfare-for-the-first-time-XVsQWL8DaaeXDTtIOG1B (Note others have looked at the impact photos and claimed that they came from stand-off weapons).
5. To add:
https://mahendrarajah.com/2025/06/23/iran-israel-war-war-of-attrition/
Your good comments do not make up for ones like this. You are already in moderation. One more egregious fabrication and you will be blacklisted. Use a search engine before you shoot off your mouth.
Why do you think that Iran, under these circumstances, isn’t being more aggressive? I don’t wish anyone ill, but it has struck me repeatedly lately that a truly death-dealing or facility-destroying strike by Iran at any time here would change the gestalt of this thing utterly. And has Israel neutralized the Hezbollah missile threat?
The thing that Netanyuhu really seems to have going for him is a willingness to be utterly ruthless/murderous, at every turn.
Iran never wanted war. It hasn’t attacked another country for at least 300 years.
Its economy is also in terrible shape. Taking physical damage is a high cost. It already has to commit to building better air defenses and further increasing missile production.
It has also won greatly in the global stature game by exercising restraint. “Thucydides said, Of all manifestations of power, self-restraint impresses men most, partly because it is the form which power least often takes.”
The infrastructure damage to Israel has been severe, as has been the psychological shock. A lot of Israelis have left and more want to leave. Think there will be much tourism either? Israel will be a shadow of its former self.
And too much more damage to Israel might have led it to deploy nukes.
I’d like to also add that the US/Israeli war aims were to “demolish” Iranian nuclear program and change the regime – and Iran’s short term goal was merely to prevent either of these happening. Which they apparently did.
Of course, none of the underlying aims or reasons for this conflict were dealt with, so it’s quite likely there’s a new war in horizon. If and when Iran manages to modernize it’s air-forces properly – say, by direct purchases (with Iranian rials, see: BRICS) and license production of J-10C and Su-35 fighters – it’ll have much better chance of actually defending itself.
NakedEmperor: The United States will make sure that Israel has all the arms it needs to continue being the preeminent military force in the region.
It’s 2025, as you might have noticed for yourself. In 2025, the US vis a vis China may be in a position analogous to that of Japan in 1941 vis a vis the US —
Israel is running out of interceptor missiles. China’s export bans mean they can’t be replaced.
https://kdwalmsley.substack.com/p/israel-is-running-out-of-interceptor-525
Transcript –
https://kdwalmsley.substack.com/p/israel-is-running-out-of-interceptor
Israel can’t afford to shoot down Iran’s missiles, and can’t afford not to
https://kdwalmsley.substack.com/p/israel-cant-afford-to-shoot-down
Transcript —
https://kdwalmsley.substack.com/p/israel-cant-afford-to-shoot-down
With missiles for Patriot batteries alone, the Russians estimated that there were only three thousand of them in the whole world. Maybe two thirds of them went to Israel – at the cost of stripping Ukraine bare and who knows where else. At a minimum you have to launch two missiles to get a kill on an incoming target but I have seen videos of Israeli batteries shoot them off like they were going out of style. Do the maths. They start with 2,00 Patriot missiles which means at a maximum they can deal with 1,000 targets and not just ballistic missiles but even crappy motor boat drones. At the rate that they have been using them up they would have been empty in less than a fortnight. At that point the Iranians could have launched explosive-laden frisbees at Israel and there would not have been a single thing that Israel could have done to stop them.
It is said that Sara, Netanyahu’s wife, after the very public sex scandal, has a lot of power in Israel. Is she pushing him into this craziness? The least we can say is that she is not trying enough to put a brake.
And where is said Madame Empress of the Empire of Zion anyway? Miami? Gstad? London? Cyprus?
Asking for a friend.
Having pretty much failed to down any missiles from Iran, the ‘proof’ presented by Israel is that they have shot down Iranian missiles fired after the ceasefire allegedly came into force. Everyone must by now know that Israelis lie about everything, but now they are adding chutzpah by the bucket load on top.
This made me think of Jon Lovitz doing a Netanyahu impersonation on SNL in the manner of his “Pathological Liar” character.
Just to add more evidence on the “regime change being the goal” front.
From Trita parsi on Twitter:
(xcancel link here):
His post includes audio of one of the calls made by Israeli intelligence (sourced from Washington Post).
I think it’s not a coincidence that Israel called this war they launched “operation Rising Lion” either. Recalls the old monarchist Iranian flag, doesn’t it?
Wowsers, I had missed this. Thanks a lot.
Thank you, Yves. It disgusts me that my (Western) government handholds these murderers along, and does everything in their power to cover for their unceasing crimes.
Given this info, it really seems like this whole thing was a botched regime-change op on the part of the Israelis. Of course, everyone will claim victory now, but to me it seems highly unlikely that ‘the plan’ would include Israel eating ballistic missiles for almost two weeks straight, and having to beg Uncle Sam for the bailout. Also explains the laughable lack of manufacturing consent amongst Western populations prior to all this. It all stinks of the Syria playbook – we should have realized then that the Syrian collapse would have emboldened the Israeli’s to try for the same gambit again.
The question is, what was ‘plan B’ if regime change failed? Just bomb the sh*t out of Iran? I just can’t see them giving up on this project so easily.
I found the WaPo article for this. It’s buried under an anodyne headline, but confirms the sourcing.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/06/23/exclusive-israel-intelligence-iran-call-audio/
A coupla days ago I read of an Israeli propaganda video where the lion and it’s sword was advancing in the flag and cutting up the Islamic text on the modern Iranian flag. If Netanyahu thinks that the Iranians will be happy to take back the Shah, then he is truly deluded. It took a revolution to get rid of the previous one and they are not going back to an American/Israeli puppet of a Shah.
Don’t be so certain. The Shah’s son could be forced on the Iranian people. And let’s look at Ukraine. The people there seem to have accepted the color revolution that overthrew a democratically elected president. In most situations, what “every day people” desire matters little. The elites run the show.
Yeah, like when the Brits re-installed the Pahlavi regime after getting rid of the democratically-elected Mossadegh govt. in 1953.
But, unlike the Anglo-Saxons, Iranians have some historical memory. The chances for “Crown Prince” Pahlavi to be re-installed appear slim to none at the moment.
Oh believe me, we are fully aware of the 1953 coup.
We even had a recent BBC radio play on this very subject.
Who exactly is going to force Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi on the Iranian people? Here’s a good piece s about Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi by yalensis on his daily blog Awful Avalanche:
https://awfulavalanche.wordpress.com/2025/06/24/ukraine-war-day-1217-shah-mat/
The rewind switch died with the cassettes but old fashioned Netanyahu hasn’t yet noticed.
All of the sudden when I was a sophomore in high school, I had a few tongue twister Ahmadinejad-like name Persian classmates from the exodus, and in my experience with Persians in LA, it was mostly Jewish Iranians that got the hell out of dodge, and they were to a 1, all very pro-Shah still even in the 90’s.
All of the sudden when I was a sophomore in high school, I had a few tongue twister Ahmadinejad-like name Persian classmates from the exodus
Classic era Silicon Valley in the 1980s and 1980s — especially at Intel — was filled with highly educated Iranian executives, scientists, and engineers who had fled Iran after the fall of the Shah and the ascent of the Ayatollahs. You still find a lot of them in the biotech business.
The one commonality I noticed with adult Persian immigrants in LA was they all brought oodles of these, and were strictly net sellers into a generational bubble fueled by the Hunt brothers argent provocateur moves in 1979-80…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pahlavi_Gold_Coins
The most vile examples of human behavior toward other humans, among the worst in history. Threatening to kill their children…Killing babies and children seems to be a specialty of the Israelis. Disgusting as it is, no surprise.
It is remarkable as well as encouraging that the Iranians did not cave in.
I recall this a few years ago. Mass murdering women and children is apparently a source of humor and entertainment for some
https://www.aljazeera.com/videos/2009/3/23/video-t-shirts-mock-gaza-killings
Gideon Levy points out, for those that don’t understand, the depths of Israeli racism and supremacy
https://x.com/umyaznemo/status/1935931521866592617
1) international law doesn’t apply to the Chosen People,
2) Jews are the only victims,
3) Palestinians are not equal human beings like us
Yes, and this is fully supported, funded, and supplied by the UK/US and vassals like Germany. Historical ironies by the truckload. Master Race, Chosen blah blah. Silly monkeys
al Udeid was not populated by US forces until early 2003 when the Saudis threw US out of Prince Sultan, a big base with Saudi E-3 where USAF had command centers etc. The reason was Saudis were opposed to US regime change war in Iraq. There were too many Shi’a suppressed by Saddam/Bathists to knock him off.
USAF is now at Prince Sultan with large number of KC 135, and F-16. Seems Saudi are taking up with Israel/US against Iran.
2003, Qatar has good relations with Iran, and so was happy to put US into al Udeid bc they wanted Saddam Hussein gone!
Since US is all in with Israel against Iran Qatar is likely happy US gone from al Udeid. We will see if US re-enters al Udeid.
On the larger military reservation of al Udeid is a long range radar, similar to big US radars built in the past 5 years. It was spec’ed for 360 degree surveillance. It was probably not targeted!
Last night’s theater. Aside from getting respite to rearm and reinfiltrate I could think of no reason for it on Trump’s side. On Iran’s side it maybe that Trump said the “Isrealis are desperate and are running their nukes into pre-arm tests…..”. That is only excuse I can find for Iran taking a no conditions ceasefire. If they ever agreed.
Trump is showing moral instability if not more serious defects. 25 Amendment time!
Collectively the alt-news sites (NC, Larry Johnson’s, Napolitano, Wilkerson interviews) have done a pretty good job of fleshing out strategic options available to Iran and its supporters. However, I’ve yet to see much about what options would be available if, as seems increasingly possible given its vulnerability to Iran’s missile forces, Israel uses nuclear weapons. I’m inclined to think that Russia and China would regard a strong response as absolutely necessary since they have every reason to regard Israel as a US proxy and cannot tolerate anything like a Middle East version of a Ukraine catspaw with nukes. What would that response be?
It’s just my weird opinion, but I think the simple fact this war got so hot conventionally answers your question. Especially without the Israeli government threatening anything nuclear (it’s not like they care about global opinion at this point).
Neither the Iranians nor the Israelis are collectively suicidal, and while I can’t speak for the sanity of Israeli or American civilian leadership, at least the militaries involved are constantly gaming out where things are headed.
If the Iranians in particular expected the escalation ladder would just end with Israel credibly threatening nukes, they wouldn’t have cranked up the heat so much. Ergo, Iran already has a sufficient deterrent of some kind that have taken a US and Israeli first strike off of the table.
I meant to say “a Ukraine catspaw using nukes.” Israel is already a catspaw with nukes.
Israel nuclear attack should be unthinkable.
The Russian, PRC response could be harmfully escalatory!
Why sane (Trump and Netanyahu not in this group) countries espouse “no first use”!
“Why sane (Trump and Netanyahu not in this group)… ”
That’s what I worry about. I’m aware of the longstanding general outlines of nuclear doctrine. Frankly, as far as sanity goes, it’s been Russia’s assertion during the Ukraine conflict of a first use doctrine if central interests of the Russian state are threatened that for me raises the question of whether Iran could threaten Israel to a similar extent. I’m sure the Iranians are extremely alert to this issue, but what might Bibi do when over time the war of attrition wrecks not only the current Israeli economy but also makes prospects for rebuilding it remote because capital will shy away from investing under a collander?
No first use is not unconditional. Should Russia, Israel, Iran (3 months), see their existence and deterrence in imminent jeopardy then no first use disappears, that is the last dimension of deterrence.
U.S.’ situation in Ukraine and Israel is where no first use does not effect deterrence unless Tel Aviv equals NYC.
According to Aljazeera, Netanyahu has agreed to refrain from further attacks following a call from Trump. We will see if that holds.
Edit: the statement from Netanyahu’s office apparently did not say “are refraining” (will continue) but rather “have refrained” (thus far) from further attacks following the latest assault on a radar installation in Tehran.
Israeli PM refraining ‘from further strikes’ on Iran after call with Trump
The ways of the Loon are indeed strange. A third party declares a ceasefire the terms of which are unknown to the other two parties presumably to reassure AIPAC as well as the crumbling MAGA base that The Don has no great desire to see the settler colony become another Gaza on its descent into rubble. Not the greatest PR moment given that both sides completely ignore the Don and leaving him predictably twisting in the wind like a weatherman in the heart of a tornado. Either that or one of his casual jokes has simply corpsed. Who can tell with the Big Don, that highly stable genius?
And you’ve got to love the fact that Tammy Bruce says America is “the greatest country on earth next to Israel”. Maybe when the street of New York, Washington, and every state capital is reduced to drifting asbestos dust, our Tammy will feel free to state that settler colony is “the greatest country on earth next to America”.
And now that the top layer of genocidaires are making their escape from the settler colony (Knesset members flying out don’t make for a very good look even if they do decide to establish a government in exile) they will soon to be followed by their uniformed psychopathic terrorists but which countries will accept them either as nationals or war criminals to be tried for their crimes, or both? We obviously can’t let hem near the War Tribunals being set up by that strange woman with the lank hair from the Estonian micro-hamlet because they would just be awarded medals and an EU pension paid out of stolen Russia money, so we might as well gather them together and divide then up amongst the Iranians, the Gazans, the Lebanese, Syrians, and what have you for trial, and try them according to Iranian law, if only to ensure they never walk the streets of any country ever again.
Maybe this has been The Don’s subtle plan all along: to clean up the Swamp by removing the settler colony’s influence from US politics for good so that he can Make America Great Again without feeling Bibi’s fingers around his neck. Who know? Who really, really knows?
…there is no ‘plan’, just events (one after the other).
‘Bibi’ Snicket: A Series of Unfortunate Events.
Yeah, we had senile Genocide Joe, and now the Idiot Emperor who has lost his marbles. The baseless hopeful speculation just won’t go away. We little people are not supposed to notice the utterly incompetent, ignorant, insane clown “leadership” (kakistocracy). The Sycophant-Stenographers (mass media) pretend everything is normal, no problem, the “market” is doing great. How wonderful for them
> The Hill has a more pointed account:
> “They don’t know what …
Kalibrated has the clip, from SkyNews. Wow. Is this perhaps the first time ever that a US president has purposely said ‘fuck’ live and for attribution? Pearls doubtless being clutched in the Bible Belt. The times they are a-changin’
The vast majority of evangelicals understand very well that sincere belief in they pieties they sometimes halfheartedly cite is strictly for the rubes. It’s a mask for what they really believe, when a mask is needed. This is not an original observation, in the sense that others have said it before, but it’s something that one notices from contact with these people.
ad hom.
> Overall, a solid majority says that it is essential for evangelicals to take a public stand on social and political issues when those issues conflict with moral and biblical principles; 56% call this essential, while 37% say it is important but not essential, and 5% say it is either not too important or not at all important.
The vast majority don’t even agree on bible literalism:
> two-thirds (68%) take this view, while about one-quarter (27%) say that the Bible is the Word of God but that not everything in it should be taken literally, word for word.
Here’s the thing the vast majority agree on:
> Virtually all of the leaders surveyed (97%) say it is necessary to follow the teachings of Christ in one’s personal and family life. Nearly as many (94%) say that working to lead others to Christ is part of being a good evangelical.
[pewresearch.org/religion/2011/06/22/global-survey-beliefs/]
Teachings of Christ?
I don’t recall reading that Jesus called for mass murdering women and children and stealing their land.
Maybe I didn’t read the right book. Thou shalt kill, lie, rape, steal, covet and make war…
In addition to being amoral hypocrites, these “evangelicals” are apparently illiterate.
“Herod (the Jewish king,) when he saw that he had been tricked by the wise men, became furious, and he sent and killed all the male children in Bethlehem and in all that region who were two years old or under” [Matthew 2:16-18].
But what very righteous Christian politician could possibly remember that when big donors are gathered outside the door, waiting to shower him with money for supporting genocide?
Ah, the important difference between what people say and what they do.
Trump is just deranged and Israel lies constantly about everything. How can anyone put the slightest bit of trust in anything they say? And how Russia and China can think there’s any sustainable profit in seeking better ties with “us” is beyond all reason, based on past performance. Maybe when the lion lies down with the lamb and pigs fly, but not in any realistic future.
Someone check on Lindsey Graham and John Bolton, they must be taking the latest developments very hard. But seriously, If I were Iran, I’d let it be known that we are willing to adhere to the ceasefire but will maintain a war footing indefinitely. The genocidal regime can’t be trusted to adhere to anything and the behind-the-scenes pressure on Trump won’t let up just because the allure of a Nobel Peace Prize appears to be overwhelming his usual erratic nature. The neocons have come as close as they’ve ever come to an all-out war with Iran, they won’t give up.
I have to say I’m surprised this thing is actually sort of sticking. My initial impression was that Trump just decided to make something up and expect the world to revolve around him.
The timing is interesting; maybe it was a combination of things (al-Udeid, the attacks on radars in Iraq, things getting touchy in the strait of Hormuz) I still think the Western interpretation that the al-Udeid attack was just Iran “letting off steam” misses the point.
Iranians love subtext, and while it does appear to have worked as de-escalation, it also signals al-Udeid won’t last in a sustained fight and it’s clearly a message to the entire region that the cake-ism of hosting Western forces while pretending not to be involved is over. Like ILSM implied above, the real tell will be how US basing changes going forward.
We’ll see, but I’m slightly optimistic now, simply because I think Iran and it’s allies finally scared some sense into everyone. And as long as the US sincerely comes to the table this time, you may be about to see some epochal diplomacy. Unlike the West or Israel who are all ultimately trying to externalize their own neuroses, Iran knows exactly what it wants and its strategic position maybe hasn’t been this strong since Nadir Shah.
I’m leaning more to the Gaza ceasefire scenario. Even if Trump means it (big if), the Zionist won’t be deterred by couple of tweets, in their minds destroying Iran is existential.
I agree they get to the same place as the Gaza ceasefire but by different means.
Israel clearly has the upper hand in Gaza by virtue of the certainty of it being able to exterminate the entire population, even if Hamas is making Israel pay a bit of a price. So the ceasefire was an annoyance to placate Trump at his inauguration.
Here, by contrast, Israel ought to want a lasting (at least a few years) cessation of hostilities to rearm, rebuild, and up its game.
But Israel is the scorpion in the frog and scorpion tale. It is in its nature to kill, even if the result is self-destruction.
What I find most impressive is that a significant portion of the United States high command has gone along with Trump’s kayfabe.
as many of the military experts quoted here on NC for the past many months have pointed out, the US military had this war gamed out as a losing battle for the US.
It’s tragic how long US leadership has played out this tragic farce in which millions have and will probably still die. Unnecessarily.
When the order is received we do what we are ordered, no matter our observation. Otherwise we resign. Now too many careers few who would resign.
It was gratifying years ago to contribute to newsy operations whether I agreed or not.
We often did exercises “generating our aircraft armed and fueled. Very much like the airmen at Whiteman did over the weekend.
The job get done debate later.
In other countries the uniformed military is not always so compliant. The biggest warmongers are usually not those still in uniform.
Yes – US JCS must have been in on the “joke”, and I’m glad that they are on board. Of course, this is not the first time they’ve been ordered to blow up some useless chunk of desert after notifying the ‘enemy’ of the plan: that was the scenario for the (Kayfabe) missile attack on Syria under Trump I.
“Kayfabe War” is a natural consequence of Democracies (however flawed) fighting wars. Politicians want to win elections; voters want victories; but sometimes “victory” – for either side – is impractical, so it’s in everybody’s best interest to declare Victory and go home. The new twist is that modern missiles make it possible for both sides to produce dramatic video (Big Boom!) without actually killing anybody!
Do I get Bonus Points for naming this “The Trump Doctrine”?
I was wondering if Iran should try the high road in negotiations. That is, agree to a ceasefire and negotiation but, like Trump and Netanyahu every day, spell out some of their own demands such as a ceasefire in Gaza, as well and an international force to keep the peace, feed the Palestinians, and work towards a two state solution. Iran will agree to inspections if Israel agrees to the same inspections. Israel must give up all claims to a greater Israel. And demand the entire ME be a nuclear free zone.
Second, there’s not much good to say about Netanyahu except that he really knows how to flatter and manipulate Trump; Netanyahu is a brilliant performer. Here from Breaking Points with Mearsheimer at the 0:30 second mark. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_3UTLMLIfw
As Pacino said in Godfather 3, “Whenever I try to get out, they pull me back in.” That’s Trump’s future.
It’s an open question as to who flattered whom.
Trump is not capable of grand flattery; he’s basically a bully. His one-time bff Musk is an example and Trump never spoke about Musk like Netanyahu just spoke about Trump— See Netanyahu’s performance, a masterclass on how to manipulate Trump. Trump wants a ceasefire, peace, and a noble prize. Bibi wants Trump to pick up the tab every week while leaving Trump scratching his head and thinking how did I get here.
Time will tell which one is the bigger fool. It’s an epic contest.
Iran should pull a Salome and demand the heads of at least three Zionist generals on a platter as a cease fire condition.
“agree to a ceasefire and negotiation but, like Trump and Netanyahu every day, spell out some of their own demands such as […]”
This will be rejected out of hand both by Trump and Netanyahu, who will insist that the ceasefire must be unconditional, since a party stating any pre-condition thus proves that it is not acting in good faith and does not really want peace.
Remember when the concept of “unconditional ceasefire” was introduced to give some breathing space to Ukraine?
Of course it will be rejected out of hand but how often have you heard, war is politics by other means? Iran needs to brush up on PR. It’s the largest country in the ME just behind Egypt. It should act like a leader and continually make demands on Israel too.
Depending on how strong Iran’s connection to its strategic depth (Russia, China, North Korea, Pakistan) is, it seems to me conceivable that Iran could demand to negotiate toward a “Big Solution” along the lines of Putin’s ideas about Eurasian Security Architecture.
On the table would be Lebanon, Gaza, West Bank, and nuclear weaponry throughout the Middle East.
But maybe conclude that military alliance treaty with Russian Federation first.
I think everybody would be on board with that except Israel. And Netanyahu and the Israel lobby will make Trump pay a heavy price if he tries to change US-Israel relations.
Granted, Australia might not be quite the neoliberal hellworld that the US is, but is it possible that the intention behind “Robodebt” *was* to disempower and immiserate people? It seems as though, even among critics of AI/automation, it’s inconceivable that these systems are doing exactly what their human creators want them to do, whether it’s Lavender, or criminal justice here in the US, or “Robodebt.” The most critics will ever say is that *biases are built in*. The default position should be that these systems have no value except to rationalize and sanitize the use of power, and the state (or its private-sector proxies) should have to prove otherwise.
Apparently, Iran is planning to have a victory parade today at 9 PM Tehran time. Which is…1:30 PM Eastern? Something along those lines.
They also just posted a Youtube Short in several languages. The translation of the Russian version of the text reads (https://www.youtube.com/shorts/YHA4AYR83xM):
“Iran is ending the war on its own terms after devastating reaction of the US and Israel…
Iran successfully imposed its own terms on the ceasefire…after a powerful coordinated strike on US bases in Qatar…and heavy morning squall [of missiles] aimed at Haifa, Tel-Aviv and several other Israeli cities.
In response, the US and Israel trembled, then desperately begged for a ceasefire.
Iranian officials made clear: they started the war, but we finished it.
The ceasefire was adopted solely on Iran’s conditions, including immediate cessation of hostilities and the right for a finishing strategic blow.
Despite some damage, Iran confirmed, its nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities remain fully functional…and will continue to strengthen without deviation.
The military warns, that they will immediately and forcefully respond to any act of aggression by the enemy.
[The military] states that there is no trusting the enemy, and Iran remains fully prepared for any scenario.”
The pathos. It burns……..
…but seriously, at this point everyone is walking away declaring victory. Russian bloggers (e.g. Boris Rozhin) are already predicting that this is just a pause before a future round of hostilities in a matter of weeks-months-years, and in the meanwhile Iran has a lot of work in terms of both its internal security and its air defense systems.
If what just appeared on the Associated Press’s site is true, I fear hostilities will resume shortly.
JUST IN: Early US intelligence report suggests US strikes only set back Iran’s nuclear program by a few months, AP sources say
It’s not a question of “is it true?”
It’s part of a larger sales job known as … Manufacturing Consent.
In the last day or so, DJT has responded with characteristic over-the-top rhetoric to criticize claims that maybe the B2 strikes were less effective than initially asserted.
I think he’s — sensibly — reluctant to go back to war with Iran, and the strong response to these questions indicates that he doesn’t want the “we finished the job” narrative to be impaired.
If Iran withdraws from the NPT, that may create a crisis — with the residuals of the program invisible, there will be no way to strike at it. My guess is that DJT will stick to his “obliterated” story as a way of justifying not dealing with the issue.
Here is a perspective on this conflict from a different angle.
By incorporating an appreciation of both the internal psychic dimension of the leadership of Iran, Israel, and the U.S., as well as the external social, political, and economic sphere of all three countries, coupled with these same dimensions operating on the international level, I would ague that what is being attempted is a quite brilliant Machiavellian foreign policy maneuver.
Machiavelli tended to argue that power, in all of the above dimensions, is primarily relational and he also clearly saw that using force and coercion by themselves makes them far less credible.
Most importantly, Machiavelli understood that the preservation of reputation is an elegant substitute for coercion.
It is the appearance of power in the form of reputation that becomes a substitute for actual military mobilization and engagement. The leadership of these three countries are now in a position to tell there respective domestic coalitions that they have won their respective power struggle with their adversary and, by reaching a cease-fire, can also minimize their own military, economic, political, and social vulnerabilities as a consequence of this conflict.
Machiavelli’s model political animals were the lion and the fox with the lion being a devotee of brute force and the fox being a devotee of clever relational strategies being a substitute for brute force.
Machiavelli’s paradox consists in showing how power is present the more fully it appears absent.
A crude reaction to your sophisticated comment would be: That assumes the rationality of the political actors and a well-defined and articulated national interests. (Whose interests?) This looks like it is but a pause in missile attacks and the chance of resuming military action is high. The Israelis will no doubt resupply (with the help of US/UK and vassals as usual), redouble efforts in their intelligence and covert operations etc. The long-term policy for UK/US, along with proxies and vassals in tow, is to topple the govt. of Iran and reinstall a puppet regime, like in the “good ol’ days”
Of course this might be all wrong, and past performance does not necessarily determine future, but history does have a tendency to rhyme.
Just a quick response to your comment.
Given the fragility of all of our initial premises, my comment indicates that reason and rationality have their limitations. I see the name of the game for Machiavelli’s conception of power as involving endless deferral.
In a way, he seems to endorse a type of horizontal transcendence where the name of the game is to enable the game of life to continue, rather than blowing ourselves up through a Carl Schmitt-like promotion of always increasing the intensity between friend and foe, which tends to lead to self-destruction and maybe even general destruction.
In a strange way, Machiavelli’s thinking triggers the insight that only going beyond immediate self-interest, by striving for a stable institutional structure in which to pursue self-interest, can self-interest be attained.
We all tend to settle for an imperfect solution, which becomes our perfection, as seen in the cease-fire arrangement that nobody likes but may just allow more muddling through.
“Conquest Without War”, compiled and edited by Mager and Katel – 1961. A very wordy 700 page thesis of Mr Krushchev’s that is likely in Mr Putin’s library.
From a link in MoA comments today (#207 Republicofscotland), video about Israeli censorship of press by German ARD reporter:
“Israel only allowed us to show damages to residual {sic} [residential] buildings. Complete censorship about Iran strikes on military bases made people think Iran only targeted cities.”
https://nitter.poast.org/MonitorX99800/status/1937513245436461349#m
Another MoA comment led to press confirmation of Monday’s resumption of outbound flights from Ben Gurion with strict outbound limit of 50:
“We expect local airlines to operate 24 repatriation flights arriving from international destinations today,” said Transportation Minister Miri Regev.
“On each outgoing flight, no more than 50 passengers will be allowed to depart. We must reduce the number of people on the tarmac during this challenging period when the airport can be a target.”
50 times 24 = 1,200 a day. 2M divided by 1.2K/d = 4.6 years for those who want to leave to fly to safety.
https://gulfnews.com/business/aviation/israel-reopens-airport-for-outbound-flights-with-strict-50-passenger-limit-1.500173412
Shuttle diplomacy making a comeback or Military Mission ? Joint official Russian/Iranian flights from Ashbagat in Turkmenistan to China. Perhaps the Iranians really do appreciate the urgency of the situation.
French/German/UK/US air tankers were just used to help a Libya/Syria type attempt to collapse Iran and pillage it. ( Rumour is that the last refuelling loop for the B2’s was out of Quetta ) Iran is surrounded by enemies.
If it is a military Mission I nominate General Surovikin to lead .Round 2 coming up.
In his 6/24 commentary, Alexander Mercouris thinks that Trump’s pivot from “regime change” to “cease fire” was conditioned in part by the Iranian FM visit to Putin (and in part by oil price movements in response to fears of Hormuz Strait closure).
It’s hard to know whether the “regime change” rhetoric was real or perhaps just bluster to impress hard-liners.
The events of the last few days suggest that the Iranians do have levers with which to pressure US.
US, no longer remotely an autarky, can’t push its adversaries around near as much as it is accustomed to.
IMO, what we have here is a “Kayfabe* War” followed by a “Kayfabe Peace”, and I’m fine with that, because it’s surely better than the Real War which it replaced.
Israel attacked Iran with bombs, missiles, drones, and targeted assassinations of key leaders.
Iran responded with missile attacks on Israel. (Drones too, but none of those got through).
This went on for a week or so; neither side was really “winning”, but I’d say that Israel was losing more (and if it continued, they were likely to run out of air-defense weapons before Iran ran out of missiles…). Israel’s only hope – indeed, probably their original intent – was to drag Uncle Sugar in to win the war for them.
In this one case, we’re lucky that Trump is President (never thought I’d ever say or write anything like that!). Any conventional politician – Republican or Democrat – would have mouthed all the usual platitudes about “our ally Israel” and (reluctantly but irrevocably?) committed the USA to open-ended war against Iran.
Somehow – despite $B “campaign donations” and whatever lewd pix Mossad has – Trump found a way to thread the needle, agreeing to attack Iran (once) if Israel agreed to a cease fire after that.
The US attack on Iran was “Kayfabe”. I’m sure we dropped real missiles and bombs, but we warned Iran about the attack in time for them to (1) evacuate people (and maybe nuke materials) and (2) avoid attacking our planes (though it’s also possible that we never actually flew B2’s over Iran).
Iran responded in kind (more Kayfabe), warning us about (details of!) their attack on our base in Qatar, which we (and mostly Qatar!?) fended off, apparently without casualties.
The fact that the Pentagon cooperated with Iran’s military in both of these actions is remarkable, and IMO, admirable. Of course, this is not the first case of this kind of thing: that’s roughly the story of the US missile attacks on Syria in 2019 (under Trump I).
So far, the Ceasefire is holding up well enough. Iran will not attack Israel (directly) unless Israel attacks Iran (directly). Israel will probably continue to assassinate people in – or allied to – Iran; Iran probably won’t be able to do much about that beyond rolling up whatever Mossad cells they can find. Iran’s regional network (Hezbollah, etc) is in tatters, and it will take years for them to rebuild that, but they are patient.
Bibi is certainly fuming at not getting everything he wanted from Trump (bombing Iran back to the Stone Age). Trump’s Secret Service people had better be very alert; and Democrats should avoid cheering if they fail. (The Old GOP’s only hope for regaining control over Trump’s Mob is to be able to blame Trump’s death on Democrats).
Likewise, Democrats should just STFU about the [true] fact that the B2 (?) attacks only set back Iran’s nuke program by a few months. This is not the time to play “gotcha”; right now, avoiding WWIII depends on us all pretending that (1) Iran won’t build nukes, so (2) Israel shouldn’t bomb Iran. Griping about the temporary nature of the damage to Iran’s [purported] nuke program implies that we should permanently end it; but the only way to do that is by completely destroying Iran’s industrial, technical, political and economic base… that is, to bomb back to the Stone Age, like we did with Iraq, Syria, and Libya.
The situation is still very dicey; for now, keeping the Kayfabe Ceasefire going is by far the least dangerous course.