One way to make sense of the ceasefire whiplash of the last 24 hours is that it was an Israel ploy, likely to succeed, to give Trump a stake in the exchanges of fire between Israel and Iran. Before, despite Trump repeatedly admitting that his real objective was “unconditional surrender” and “regime change,” the US was hewing to the fiction that its objective was the elimination of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. That was consistent with Trump’s initial posturing, that the strikes on Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz were to be “one and done,” that Iran should suck them up and get back to the capitulation negotiating table….which Israel, with US backing, had kicked over in its June 13 attack.
For those a bit behind the state of play, last night US time, Iran attacked an emptied US air base in Qatar, and according to some accounts, also a covert US base in Syria that is protecting oil (which is being largely if not entirely trucked into Israel). Iran warned the US of the attack. Trump then grandly announced a ceasefire starting at 4:00 AM, when the Iranians said they were not given any agreement and appear not to have even been given a heads up.
Iran had called for a ceasefire before negotiations, so they could hardly cavil about this extremely irregular process. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi tap danced a bit but mainly stuck to Iran’s pre-existing position, that Iran would stop firing on Israel if Israel stopped shooting at Iran.
But despite the ceasefire antics, that did not happen, or at least well enough to satisfy Iran, which had not agreed to any particular terms, which includes the start time. Israel made a significant attack on Iran right before the Israel-US designated commencement, and Iran shot back.
This ceasefire was such a transparent bit of theater as to be a joke. Consider additional uncomfortable facts:
Alastair Crooke has stressed that ceasefires typically break down in 2 to 3 weeks. He and others, notably Putin, have pointed out that effective ceasefires require agreement on many details, particularly the designation of independent monitors in sufficient numbers to keep tabs adequately. Nothing like this has happened.
Israel has a long-standing history of not respecting ceasefires. For recent examples, see Here’s how Israel is repeatedly violating the Lebanon ceasefire from Aljazeera last November.
And now we have Israel squealing that Iran violated this fake ceasefire so it will go back on the attack. From the Guardian:
Normal Israeli duplicity has gotten a very big, if also extremely clumsy, force multiplier in the form of Trump. So expect more extreme Truth Social utterances once Trump can get to a keyboard.
Update 7:00 AM EDT: Just as this post went live, Trump made his first pronouncement. From Associated Press:
President Donald Trump says both Israel and Iran violated ceasefire terms with attacks following an early Tuesday deadline to cease hostilities.
Trump made the comments to reporters at the White House before departing for the NATO summit at The Hague. He expressed disappointment about the continued attacks.
“They violated it but Israel violated it too,” Trump said. He added, ”I’m not happy with Israel.”
The Hill has a more pointed account:
“They don’t know what the f— they’re doing,” Trump told reporters at the White House before taking off for a trip to The Hague for the NATO Summit.
In a Truth Social post around the same time, Trump singled out Israel, in a remarkable move for the U.S. president, telling the longtime American ally: “ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!”
Back to the original draft.
However, one has to wonder (aside from continued Israel derangement that the US can rescue Israel from the mess it created), how Israeli officials can think resuming the conflict is a bright idea. This is well in the terrain of the saying attributed to Einstein, “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” Israel is running out of air defense missiles. They aren’t hugely effective at the best of times (for instance, versus Iran’s hypersonics). Everyone knows additional Patriot missiles are scarce globally, and batteries even more so, and the US can’t begin to get enough produced to meet its various demands.
And when Israel is denuded of air defenses, which will happen on current trajectories, Iran can do plenty of damage with mere drones. No need for the high end kit.
Confirming our repeated “all tactics and no strategy” assessment of Trump, former UK diplomat Ian Proud weighs in (admittedly one step behind the Israel vow to start shooting again):
I met my fellow Realists last night to discuss the latest in Iran, after the attack on Al-Udeid airbase in Qatar.
That attack, which appears to have been carefully choreographed to demonstrate an Iranian response with limited scope for escalation, would have raised concerns in Doha and other Gulf States of the economic cost to them of entanglement in Netanyahu’s war.
It is interesting that the Iranian and Qataris this morning have spoken and reaffirmed the importance of their ties.
But the ceasefire that emerged on the back of the Iranian strike, heralded by Trump, appears already to have broken by both sides. That means the risk of other Iranian strikes on US facilities in the Gulf will remain and the pressure on Trump to up the ante will grow, in particular from the Israel lobby.
Keep in mind that Israel is already taking serious damage, at least relative to what its heretofore sheltered population had come to expect:
Israeli media admits: Iran emptied Tel Aviv
Channel 12 television:
🔹 Iran's direct attacks on Tel Aviv turned this city, which was a symbol of vitality and energy, into a city without inhabitants, triggering a wave of mass emigration.
🔹 The city that was always known for its… pic.twitter.com/k98AMGSxfr
— Sprinter Observer (@SprinterObserve) June 23, 2025
Iran did all this to Israel without an Air Force!
Think about it!
Israel, even with the backing of NATO members, was humiliated by Iran!
pic.twitter.com/B9kw34ENxz— Gabe (@GabeZZOZZ) June 24, 2025
Recall that Alastair Crooke has also pointed out that Israel’s raison d’etre was to be a safe place for Jews. That is no longer true and may never be true again.
Iran has also suffered real damage (although how much is still not well known) and it already suffered from a very weak economy. However, North Korea is in vastly worse shape on that front yet still has formidable missile technology. We Westerners like to think that the legitimacy of a government depends on delivering rising prosperity, when at times of acute stress, other factors come into play. Vanessa Beeley points out in Trump yelling ‘ceasefire’ doesn’t mean ‘ceasefire’:
Iran has seen its regional popularity explode since Israel began its aggression. The popularity among the people of the region is unprecedented. If the US wanted to isolate Iran, Israel’s aggression has had the opposite effect. Also unprecedented and perhaps unexpected, after the efforts by the West to orchestrate internal divide in Iran, national cohesion within Iran is at its highest since 1979. The Western-backed opposition were completely overwhelmed by the backlash from Iranian society. Their isolation will not recover.
Many commentators, particularly Alexander Mercouris long form, have pointed out that the US bombing nuclear sites and the IEA not saying a peep shreds whatever little cred it had left. Even the Russians, which are nuclear-non-proliferation hawks, are pushing back against IEA demands:
“We searched and searched, but found nothing.” — Lavrov on the IAEA’s demands that Iran disclose the location of its enriched uranium:
“Right now, IAEA Director General Grossi is demanding that Iran grant access to its nuclear facilities to verify where the enriched material is… pic.twitter.com/4qztHzW6AU
— Zlatti71 (@Zlatti_71) June 24, 2025
In the meantime, all is not entirely quiet on the Strait of Hormuz front:
Maritime activity slows in Gulf
Kpler vessel tracking indicates declines in maritime traffic in the Mideast #Gulf since the Israel-Iran conflict began on Friday, June 13.
In addition to the risks of conflict escalation, subsequent navigation system interference and disruption… pic.twitter.com/NzPmm88k5M
— Kpler (@Kpler) June 23, 2025
Ah I see the situation with jamming in the Persian Gulf now via @gCaptain: A significant increase in GPS jamming and spoofing incidents along the Iranian coast is raising serious concerns about maritime safety in one of the world’s most critical shipping channels. According to…
— Andrew Revkin 🌎 ✍🏼 🪕 ☮️ (@Revkin) June 23, 2025
Readers have suggested that Iran actually has weeks worth of oil supply already on tankers at sea, which would buffer any short-term impact on China. Not sayin’ that Iran will do more than signal-jamming harassment, but if it feels it has to escalate, this IMHO is less bad than other not-great options.
Update 8:00 AM EDT: In a fresh interview, Larry Wilkerson says his contacts say that if Iran were to close the Strait of Hormuz, it would do so only for a week or so to get everyone’s attention and say it would close it again and for longer if necessary.
Back to the original post:
There are also stirrings in Iraq but it’s not yet clear what this portends:
Several Drones hit and destroyed French radars in 3 Iraqi (not US) military installations at Ali Bin Abi Taleb, Balad and al-Taji. Baghdad is not willing to accuse any side.
These drones did not come from outside the country where several US military bases enjoy total dominance…— Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺 (@ejmalrai) June 24, 2025
Beeley noted:
In the early hours of Tuesday morning, multiple attacks were reported across Iraq. Taji Area, north of Baghdad. Baghdad International Airport. Balad – Salah Al Din Governorate. Balad Air Base, Al Bakr Air Base. Nasiryah – Dhi Qar governorate, Imam Ali Air Base in southern Iraq. No group has yet claimed responsibility but the attacks suggest a high level of coordination on the ground.
Yet more proof that the US is all in for Israel:
Trump's State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce says America is "the greatest country on earth next to Israel" pic.twitter.com/0jYxTh52Qh
— Ken Klippenstein (@kenklippenstein) June 22, 2025
This is cringe-making.
While there is more commentary on US and Israeli fecklessness, given that the ceasefire is already falling apart, it seems premature to speculate further until we see what the “gang that can’t shoot straight” Team Trump does next. We’re not in “assume the brace position” mode yet, but risks are still far too much in play.
From Craig Murray´s post:
The Phantom Ceasefire
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2025/06/the-phantom-ceasefire/
“(…)
You can never trust the Israelis – or indeed the Americans – with either a ceasefire or a negotiation. Reuters reported that a senior Iranian official had confirmed the ceasefire had been agreed. Israel then repeated precisely what I had seen in Beirut – massive carpet bombing of the city just before the 3.30am deadline for the Israel/Iran ceasefire.
(image Beirut)
That picture is Beirut literally minutes before the ceasefire came into effect. Israel then proceeded to violate the ceasefire anyway, and has done so virtually every single day in the past months of ceasefire, often several times a day, racking up over 1,000 violations.
The Iranians very sensibly responded to last night’s carpet bombing with a missile salvo. Israel has claimed a violation of the ceasefire (as ever the aggressor is the “victim”) and fighting has resumed.
I believe this may be for the best. Although it does benefit Netanyahu – who for domestic reasons is desperate to avoid peace – the Israelis would never have observed a ceasefire and would have used it to replenish their exhausted missile defence systems, with help from the USA, UK and the other genocide participants.
The Iranian “attack” on the US airbase in Qatar was purely performative. They used old, expendable, low level missiles certain to be shot down and warned that they were coming. It was part of the structure of Trump’s off ramp.
(…)”
But read the whole piece it´s not long.
> and would have used it to replenish their exhausted missile defence systems, with help from the USA, UK and the other genocide participants
One hundred and eleven-ty percent!
I’ve been googling “senator” under “news” to see which Senator would be the first to attack Trump for not starting WWIII.
It looks like the winner is Chris Coons (D-Del) on Morning Joe this morning!
https://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/amp-video/mmvo242159685566
well done A++++++++
Yves’ and NC analyses save the day in this awful environment. The difference with MSM outlets is getting abysmal. In favour of NC of course.
A+ use of fecklessness
This is all so bewildering to me.
Trump launched B2s to “Guam” – everyone knew they were heading to Iran
Told Iran ahead of time so they could move their stuff
Claims total destruction, but when they are asked about “why no radiation” their response is “don’t worry about it believe us” (even when Iran said they were given warning and moved everything)
Iran shoots at an empty base and tells us ahead of time.
Trump claims victory – his “peace through strength” oxymoron
And now Bibi is doing typical Bibi things
Oh and somehow this is all Obama/Bidens fault.
I need a nap and it’s only 7am…
> This is all so bewildering to me.
It’s jaw dropping. It’s beyond kayfabe. One fighter makes an attacking move and the commentator yells: “He’s going for The Ceasefre. I don’t believe it, Bob. He’s used that so often I doubt anyone falls for it.” And Bob replies, “Sorry to disappoint you there, George, but The Guardian, BBC and NYT already fell for it.”
The question on my mind has been:
Can’t Iran shoot down any illegal aircraft that’s over their airspace? Are they not capable of shooting down US bombers? Or did they just let this charade happen?
Are there any aircraft to shoot down?
A good comment on MoA made the point that we should start with the null hypothesis. Namely, that no Israeli or American planes ever entered Iranian airspace.
There is no good evidence either way – the damage seen from satellites at Fordow could easily be from cruise missiles, or stand-off weapons launched safely from Saudi or Syrian airspace.
And on the side of “Kabuki theater” we do have circumstantial evidence:
+ The Kabuki response from Iran
+ The fact that the only people claiming that there were air-strikes from inside Iran are known liars of ill repute. Netanyahu, Trump. Trump in particular is a pathological liar, of known bad character (3 wives, affairs with multiple women, including a pr0n star.)
Trump gets some slack from the Iranian leadership for the same reason he gets some slack from Putin — there is an awareness that he is under intense pressure to escalate, and a belief that he probably doesn’t want to.
The US “heads-up” signaled a desire on the part of DJT to not go to war; the Iranians reciprocated before their reply strike. Trump has other fish to fry, and so do the Iranians; US/Iran war serves neither’s interest.
I think it’s a case of saner heads trying to prevail, and more or less, so far, succeeding, in spite of strong pressures in the direction of insanity.
“Peace through strength” dates back at least to Nixon. American presidents come and go, but the foreign policy remains virtually unchanged.
> “They violated it but Israel violated it too,” Trump said. He added, ”I’m not happy with Israel.”
Hang. BiBi. Out. To. Dry.
I wonder whether there might be leverage to pressure Israel to lift the siege of Gaza.
DJT might earn that Peace Prize yet.
I watched Brian Berletic’s piece this morning and he is quite upset about this ceasefire. I fully understand with his reasoning and basically agree with his premise. He is likely right about the over-all unreliability of the West. They have proved to be incapable of agreements and they will use it as a ploy to attack at the time of their choosing.
I am more sanguine about this situation because it appears to me that even if a pause allows both sides to re-arm themselves, the advantage goes to Iran. They already have vastly superior technology in regards to missiles and it seems likely that their air defense network will be greatly improved if there is enough time for Russia or China to send their systems. The weakness of western weapon systems has been shown and the inability of the west to manufacture replacements in a timely manner is a given. The idea that the West will use this opportunity to now shift the focus on China is laughable.
Is speaking about „humiliation“ relevant? If you think wars are a football game, maybe, but if you speak about wars as realist you see what you can do, cannot do, what has been achieved or not achieved. Israels was „humiliated“ by Hamas a lot of times, if I remember it correctly, but only the Palestinians have to handle starvation, thirst and death. Are the zionists motivated by „humiliation“? It seems like they are enough motivated to genocide just because they are brim-full of hatred towards the other.
Humiliation is relevant insofar as Israel’s existence is guaranteed by it being the unmatched power in the region, capable of dictating terms unilaterally to countries that at best despise it (even if the comprador elites don’t).
Hamas’ blow was clearly significant, and still is, insofar as it has made Israel burn all of its international goodwill permanently, and put the country in a much more perilous situation. If they could just shrug off the blows, this clearly would have been an insane decision.
In football, and in wars, it’s the end score that matters. Cheerleading about „humiliation“ is just entertainment for the crowd.
Israel can say whatever they want but time is not on their side. They are running out of missiles to shoot down Iranian ones, they are sustaining heavy damage on a daily basis, people have abandoned Tel Aviv, Israel has had to stop all Israelis from leaving the country taking the prize from Gaza of being the largest open-air prison in the world, and their economy is swirling around the gurgler. That last point deserves more mention. I read somewhere where this war is costing them nearly a billion dollars a day when you factor in all costs. It is not sustainable. So it seems that Israel’s finance minister has not only been demanding money from the UK, France and Germany for their war against Iran but also the Gulf states like the UAE where it went down like a lead balloon-
https://www.newarab.com/news/uae-slams-israels-smotrich-over-iran-war-funding-demand
It is highly unlikely that Israel will run out of air defense missiles, just as it is unlikely they will run out of 2000 pound bombs. Israel obtains weaponry from many sources, as do all belligerent nations. The United States will make sure that Israel has all the arms it needs to continue being the preeminent military force in the region. As far as money is concerned, Uncle Sam (US taxpayers) will ultimately pick up the tab. Remember, the rallying cry is now “Israel First”.
It is said that Sara, Netanyahu’s wife, after the very public sex scandal, has a lot of power in Israel. Is she pushing him into this craziness? The least we can say is that she is not trying enough to put a brake.
Having pretty much failed to down any missiles from Iran, the ‘proof’ presented by Israel is that they have shot down Iranian missiles fired after the ceasefire allegedly came into force. Everyone must by now know that Israelis lie about everything, but now they are adding chutzpah by the bucket load on top.
Just to add more evidence on the “regime change being the goal” front.
From Trita parsi on Twitter:
(xcancel link here):
His post includes audio of one of the calls made by Israeli intelligence (sourced from Washington Post).
I think it’s not a coincidence that Israel called this war they launched “operation Rising Lion” either. Recalls the old monarchist Iranian flag, doesn’t it?
Wowsers, I had missed this. Thanks a lot.
A coupla days ago I read of an Israeli propaganda video where the lion and it’s sword was advancing in the flag and cutting up the Islamic text on the modern Iranian flag. If Netanyahu thinks that the Iranians will be happy to take back the Shah, then he is truly deluded. It took a revolution to get rid of the previous one and they are not going back to an American/Israeli puppet of a Shah.
Don’t be so certain. The Shah’s son could be forced on the Iranian people. And let’s look at Ukraine. The people there seem to have accepted the color revolution that overthrew a democratically elected president. In most situations, what “every day people” desire matters little. The elites run the show.
al Udeid was not populated by US forces until early 2003 when the Saudis threw US out of Prince Sultan, a big base with Saudi E-3 where USAF had command centers etc. The reason was Saudis were opposed to US regime change war in Iraq. There were too many Shi’a suppressed by Saddam/Bathists to knock him off.
USAF is now at Prince Sultan with large number of KC 135, and F-16. Seems Saudi are taking up with Israel/US against Iran.
2003, Qatar has good relations with Iran, and so was happy to put US into al Udeid bc they wanted Saddam Hussein gone!
Since US is all in with Israel against Iran Qatar is likely happy US gone from al Udeid. We will see if US re-enters al Udeid.
On the larger military reservation of al Udeid is a long range radar, similar to big US radars built in the past 5 years. It was spec’ed for 360 degree surveillance. It was probably not targeted!
Last night’s theater. Aside from getting respite to rearm and reinfiltrate I could think of no reason for it on Trump’s side. On Iran’s side it maybe that Trump said the “Isrealis are desperate and are running their nukes into pre-arm tests…..”. That is only excuse I can find for Iran taking a no conditions ceasefire. If they ever agreed.
Trump is showing moral instability if not more serious defects. 25 Amendment time!
Collectively the alt-news sites (NC, Larry Johnson’s, Napolitano, Wilkerson interviews) have done a pretty good job of fleshing out strategic options available to Iran and its supporters. However, I’ve yet to see much about what options would be available if, as seems increasingly possible given its vulnerability to Iran’s missile forces, Israel uses nuclear weapons. I’m inclined to think that Russia and China would regard a strong response as absolutely necessary since they have every reason to regard Israel as a US proxy and cannot tolerate anything like a Middle East version of a Ukraine catspaw with nukes. What would that response be?
It’s just my weird opinion, but I think the simple fact this war got so hot conventionally answers your question. Especially without the Israeli government threatening anything nuclear (it’s not like they care about global opinion at this point).
Neither the Iranians nor the Israelis are collectively suicidal, and while I can’t speak for the sanity of Israeli or American civilian leadership, at least the militaries involved are constantly gaming out where things are headed.
If the Iranians in particular expected the escalation ladder would just end with Israel credibly threatening nukes, they wouldn’t have cranked up the heat so much. Ergo, Iran already has a sufficient deterrent of some kind that have taken a US and Israeli first strike off of the table.
I meant to say “a Ukraine catspaw using nukes.” Israel is already a catspaw with nukes.
Israel nuclear attack should be unthinkable.
The Russian, PRC response could be harmfully escalatory!
Why sane (Trump and Netanyahu not in this group) countries espouse “no first use”!
“Why sane (Trump and Netanyahu not in this group)… ”
That’s what I worry about. I’m aware of the longstanding general outlines of nuclear doctrine. Frankly, as far as sanity goes, it’s been Russia’s assertion during the Ukraine conflict of a first use doctrine if central interests of the Russian state are threatened that for me raises the question of whether Iran could threaten Israel to a similar extent. I’m sure the Iranians are extremely alert to this issue, but what might Bibi do when over time the war of attrition wrecks not only the current Israeli economy but also makes prospects for rebuilding it remote because capital will shy away from investing under a collander?
According to Aljazeera, Netanyahu has agreed to refrain from further attacks following a call from Trump. We will see if that holds.
Edit: the statement from Netanyahu’s office apparently did not say “are refraining” (will continue) but rather “have refrained” (thus far) from further attacks following the latest assault on a radar installation in Tehran.
Israeli PM refraining ‘from further strikes’ on Iran after call with Trump
The ways of the Loon are indeed strange. A third party declares a ceasefire the terms of which are unknown to the other two parties presumably to reassure AIPAC as well as the crumbling MAGA base that The Don has no great desire to see the settler colony become another Gaza on its descent into rubble. Not the greatest PR moment given that both sides completely ignore the Don and leaving him predictably twisting in the wind like a weatherman in the heart of a tornado. Either that or one of his casual jokes has simply corpsed. Who can tell with the Big Don, that highly stable genius?
And you’ve got to love the fact that Tammy Bruce says America is “the greatest country on earth next to Israel”. Maybe when the street of New York, Washington, and every state capital is reduced to drifting asbestos dust, our Tammy will feel free to state that settler colony is “the greatest country on earth next to America”.
And now that the top layer of genocidaires are making their escape from the settler colony (Knesset members flying out don’t make for a very good look even if they do decide to establish a government in exile) they will soon to be followed by their uniformed psychopathic terrorists but which countries will accept them either as nationals or war criminals to be tried for their crimes, or both? We obviously can’t let hem near the War Tribunals being set up by that strange woman with the lank hair from the Estonian micro-hamlet because they would just be awarded medals and an EU pension paid out of stolen Russia money, so we might as well gather them together and divide then up amongst the Iranians, the Gazans, the Lebanese, Syrians, and what have you for trial, and try them according to Iranian law, if only to ensure they never walk the streets of any country ever again.
Maybe this has been The Don’s subtle plan all along: to clean up the Swamp by removing the settler colony’s influence from US politics for good so that he can Make America Great Again without feeling Bibi’s fingers around his neck. Who know? Who really, really knows?
> The Hill has a more pointed account:
> “They don’t know what …
Kalibrated has the clip, from SkyNews. Wow. Is this perhaps the first time ever that a US president has purposely said ‘fuck’ live and for attribution? Pearls doubtless being clutched in the Bible Belt. The times they are a-changin’
The vast majority of evangelicals understand very well that sincere belief in they pieties they sometimes halfheartedly cite is strictly for the rubes. It’s a mask for what they really believe, when a mask is needed. This is not an original observation, in the sense that others have said it before, but it’s something that one notices from contact with these people.
ad hom.
> Overall, a solid majority says that it is essential for evangelicals to take a public stand on social and political issues when those issues conflict with moral and biblical principles; 56% call this essential, while 37% say it is important but not essential, and 5% say it is either not too important or not at all important.
The vast majority don’t even agree on bible literalism:
> two-thirds (68%) take this view, while about one-quarter (27%) say that the Bible is the Word of God but that not everything in it should be taken literally, word for word.
Here’s the thing the vast majority agree on:
> Virtually all of the leaders surveyed (97%) say it is necessary to follow the teachings of Christ in one’s personal and family life. Nearly as many (94%) say that working to lead others to Christ is part of being a good evangelical.
[pewresearch.org/religion/2011/06/22/global-survey-beliefs/]
Trump is just deranged and Israel lies constantly about everything. How can anyone put the slightest bit of trust in anything they say? And how Russia and China can think there’s any sustainable profit in seeking better ties with “us” is beyond all reason, based on past performance. Maybe when the lion lies down with the lamb and pigs fly, but not in any realistic future.
Someone check on Lindsey Graham and John Bolton, they must be taking the latest developments very hard. But seriously, If I were Iran, I’d let it be known that we are willing to adhere to the ceasefire but will maintain a war footing indefinitely. The genocidal regime can’t be trusted to adhere to anything and the behind-the-scenes pressure on Trump won’t let up just because the allure of a Nobel Peace Prize appears to be overwhelming his usual erratic nature. The neocons have come as close as they’ve ever come to an all-out war with Iran, they won’t give up.
I have to say I’m surprised this thing is actually sort of sticking. My initial impression was that Trump just decided to make something up and expect the world to revolve around him.
The timing is interesting; maybe it was a combination of things (al-Udeid, the attacks on radars in Iraq, things getting touchy in the strait of Hormuz) I still think the Western interpretation that the al-Udeid attack was just Iran “letting off steam” misses the point.
Iranians love subtext, and while it does appear to have worked as de-escalation, it also signals al-Udeid won’t last in a sustained fight and it’s clearly a message to the entire region that the cake-ism of hosting Western forces while pretending not to be involved is over. Like ILSM implied above, the real tell will be how US basing changes going forward.
We’ll see, but I’m slightly optimistic now, simply because I think Iran and it’s allies finally scared some sense into everyone. And as long as the US sincerely comes to the table this time, you may be about to see some epochal diplomacy. Unlike the West or Israel who are all ultimately trying to externalize their own neuroses, Iran knows exactly what it wants and its strategic position maybe hasn’t been this strong since Nadir Shah.
I’m leaning more to the Gaza ceasefire scenario. Even if Trump means it (big if), the Zionist won’t be deterred by couple of tweets, in their minds destroying Iran is existential.
What I find most impressive is that a significant portion of the United States high command has gone along with Trump’s kayfabe.
as many of the military experts quoted here on NC for the past many months have pointed out, the US military had this war gamed out as a losing battle for the US.
It’s tragic how long US leadership has played out this tragic farce in which millions have and will probably still die. Unnecessarily.