Links 6/24/2025

Animals taught us culture Aeon

The Man Who Invented the Modern Zoo Tested Out His Ideas on People First Smithsonian Mag

HOW THE RUBIN OBSERVATORY WILL REINVENT ASTRONOMY IEEE Spectrum

Deadly tomb fungus that killed 10 scientists now yields powerful cancer-killing drug Interesting Engineering

How To Tell If You’re Dead Nautilus

How Societies Morph With the Seasons Sapiens

Climate/Environment

Dangerous heat wave grips U.S. with record temperatures NBC News

Asia heating up twice as fast as rest of globe, WMO warns Down to Earth

Invisible damage: From stratosphere to marine life, impact of ongoing wars pervasive & long-term Down to Earth

Lightning Strikes the Arctic: What Will It Mean for the Far North? Yale Environment 360

IN A BURNING WORLD, WITCHCRAFT IS ON THE RISE Atmos

Pandemics

Long COVID is increasing housing insecurity, but support programs fail to help The Sick Times

The Koreas

Lee Jae Myung to skip meetings with NATO leaders in Netherlands Korea Herald

Japan

Japan PM Ishiba to Skip NATO Summit Nippon

Seoul’s Lee and Tokyo’s Ishiba off to a surprisingly warm start Asia Times

China?

China and the Iran-Israel conflict; Lai: “Taiwan is of course a country”; Rickety “London Framework”; Curbing “involution-style” competition Sinocism

Second China-Central Asia summit draws new blueprint for cooperation Beijing Review

Syraqistan

Israel kills at least 43 Palestinians in Gaza, including aid seekers Al Jazeera

***

Trump announces that Israel and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire Anadolu Agency

Iran launches strikes on Israeli targets, despite alleged ceasefire Al Mayadeen

Iran: Military operations halted, conditional on Israeli aggression Al Mayadeen

Iran breaks ceasefire with missile attack on Israel; Katz instructs IDF to ‘respond forcefully in heart of Tehran’ Times of Israel

Inside story: ‘Conclusion’ to Iran-Israel war expected after Iranian retaliation for US bombings Amwaj

You Cannot Negotiate with the Zionist West Craig Murray

***

Trump’s Grave Miscalculations Alastair Crooke (Video)

Trump and Netanyahu aim to remake the Middle East with bombs. Iran shows why that will always fail Sina Toossi, The Guardian

Marco Rubio Says It’s ‘Irrelevant’ Whether Iran Decided To Build a Nuclear Weapon Antiwar

Sovereignty Under Siege: Iran, the West, and the Illusion of Choice Elijah Magnier

Netanyahu Thinks He’s Churchill, but He’s Looking More Like George W. Bush Haaretz

Iran vs the US and Israel — Kabuki Theater on Steroids Larry Johnson

***

Israel can’t afford to shoot down Iran’s missiles, and can’t afford not to Kevin Walmsley

IDF Finds Iranian Missile Evaded Detection, Causing Siren Failure and Impact in Northern Israel’s Haifa Haaretz

Iran launches missile attacks on US base in Qatar AP

US military aircraft no longer visible at base in Qatar: satellite images AFP. From June 19.

***

Iran Is Headed Toward Regime Collapse Nouriel Roubini, Project Syndicate

Israeli Ministers Say Israel Cooperating With Iranian Opposition, Call for Regime Change Haaretz

Iran confiscates thousands of small drones as crackdown on Mossad cells intensifies The Cradle

Islamic State Narratives on the Israel-Iran Conflict in Issue No. 500 of Al-Naba SpecialEurasia

Israel and the United States Are Planting a Harvest of Chaos in Iran The Century Foundation. Buys Zionist war narrative, but might be on to something with what they hope to accomplish.

***

Middle East Conflict Drives Spike in War Risk Insurance Costs gCaptain

China orders fleet to report Hormuz voyages amid protection speculation Lloyd’s List

***

Putin tells Iranian FM ‘no justification’ for US-Israeli war, offers support for Tehran The Cradle

US Evacuates Embassy in Lebanon as Israel Steps Up Strikes Antiwar

European Disunion

Von der Leyen in Crisis? Leftist Parties Threaten To Pull Support From Queen Ursula European Conservative

Old Blighty

As Thames Water fights for survival, crumbling assets show challenge ahead Reuters

What Caused The Great Stink of London? History Defined

Jeremy Corbyn: MPs Exist Because of Protest Tribune

O Canada

Mark Carney’s first 100 days a blitz of pro-corporate, Trump-friendly moves The Breach

Canada signs defense pact with EU Politico

Military spending groupthink and Canada’s left Canadian Dimension

New Not-So-Cold War

Zelensky aide pledges more ‘surprises’ for Russia after drone ambush The Times

Russia Begins Serial Production of Oreshinik Long Range Ballistic Missiles: What Makes it a Game Changer? Military Watch

Russian Warship Spotted Escorting Two Inbound Stateless Tankers Maritime Executive

Trump 2.0

Democrats en déshabillé

NYC’s Compelling Mayoral Primary Is a Microcosm of the Democratic Party Common Dreams

Mahmoud Khalil, Zohran Mamdani, and the Politics of Vulnerability Lit Hub

MAHA

Federal HIV Guidelines Face a Shutdown — A Critical Loss for Clinicians and Patients NEJM

Police State Watch

Masked men in U.S. Border Patrol vests take Santa Ana father after repeatedly hitting him KTLA. “…a father to three (!) sons who are all U.S. Marines.”

Trump’s ICE Agents Are Arresting US Citizens. GOP Budget Would Hire 10,000 More. Truthout

Militarized LA: troops here to stay as Trump doubles down on deployments The Guardian

Immigration

Supreme Court allows Trump to swiftly deport certain immigrants to ‘third countries’ NBC News

AI

Judge denies creating “mass surveillance program” harming all ChatGPT users Ars Technica

Trapped In Work Mode: The Real Challenge Of AI Is Not Technical, It’s Conceptual, Mythic, And Institutional 3 Quarks Daily

Robodebt: When automation fails Can We Still Govern?

Cluely, a startup that helps ‘cheat on everything,’ raises $15M from a16z Tech Crunch

Healthcare?

Private Equity Acquisition of Gastroenterology Practices and Colonoscopy Price and Quality JAMA Health Forum. Spoiler alert: they did not improve.

Imperial Collapse Watch

Gangster empire: what the bombing of Iran reveals about the West Thomas Fazi

Spies of Empire: Beware UN-Affiliated Organisations Kit Klarenberg

Divided America is Vulnerable in War Matt Taibbi

Groves of Academe

Republican plans to cap student borrowing could shatter an everyday profession Politico

Screening Room

Hollywood is in bad shape. You wouldn’t know it from CEO pay Los Angeles Times

Class Warfare

Looking Backward to Counter Mysticism and Despair Adolph Reed, Jr., Nonsite

Neighborliness Archedelia

Antidote du jour (via):

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

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47 comments

  1. Antifa

    Ice Is Havin’ Trouble
    (melody borrowed from I’m A Good Ol Rebel written by Major James Innes Randolph in 1864; here performed by the 2nd South Carolina String Band)

    Oh, ICE is havin’ trouble at pullin’ off their scam
    These brutes won’t show their faces, they work for Uncle Sam
    They don’t present no warrants, they’re all too fat to run
    They’re stealing little children, they’ll grab most anyone

    They wreck our Constitution with everything they do
    They’re rounding up Hispanics like Brownshirts herded Jews
    Our courts say this ain’t legal, and clearly treasonous
    So ICE arrests those judges, now where does that leave us?

    If you look half Hispanic they’ll add you to their queue
    They’ll throw you to the asphalt, and leave you black and blue
    Their tactics are inhuman, their pay it must be good
    They raise an awful clamor in every neighborhood

    These Brownshirt wannabes are freshly kitted out
    They hide their ugly faces from all the laws they flout
    These faces of fascism need glitter bombs to glow
    That really twists their panties—their friends and neighbors know

    To hide your face with hankies does not inspire trust
    The protests they’re arousing are getting more robust
    Their raids for search and seizure are staged to look like SWAT
    Their methods are reptilian, these gangsters must be fought

    No national discussion of what we need them for
    They show up by the dozen, they’re kicking down the door
    The neighbors come a runnin’ and tell these goons to scram
    Nobody gets abducted by punks from Uncle Sam

    Oh, ICE is havin’ trouble at pullin’ off their scam
    Oh, ICE is havin’ trouble at pullin’ off their scam

    Reply
  2. The Rev Kev

    “Marco Rubio Says It’s ‘Irrelevant’ Whether Iran Decided To Build a Nuclear Weapon”

    Rubio – and Trump – have no idea what they have done. Those flames that you see in the distance? That is not Israel or Iran burning. That is the anti-proliferation treaty going up in flames. Iran was subject to the most intrusive inspection regime by the IAEA and they followed it to the last rule. Only, the IAEA was feeding all that knowledge about the Iranian nuclear program back to Israeli intelligence to help them plan their attack. An attack by a country that has their own nuclear program never inspected by the IAEA. Now nobody has a clue where Iran’s nuclear material is and sure as hell the Iranians will not tell Grossi. If Iran had nukes they would never have been attacked in the same way that North Korea is safe from the US. So how many countries are now thinking of going to nukes to keep themselves safe? Japan? Turkiye? Egypt? South Korea? Saudi Arabia? Take your pick. This is another fine mess that Trump has gotten us into.

    Reply
    1. Hepativore

      I think there is a high likelihood that the US would have attacked Iran anyway if it were Harris in office because of Israel’s demands. The issue is that the diehard support of Israel is bipartisan and Israel determines our foreign policy in the Middle East. The real difference between Trump and Harris would be that Trump openly admits the idiotic motivations behind attacking Iran where hypothetically Harris and the rest of the Dems would try and frame it that they were powerless to do anything and just had to attack Iran because “reasons”.

      The problem is that nations can sign all sorts of treaties, but the moment that one country feels that it there is nobody that can realistically stop it from ignoring them, it will do so. Right now, we are in the thrashing-about phase as the US continues its decades-long process of unraveling. Trump has basically morphed into another Bush Jr. and it is the Iraq war all over again.

      Once again, this shows that our leadership are basically royalty/lords in all but name and they will do whatever the hell they want, regardless of what the opinions of the citizenry are. I wonder if schools should update their civics class curricula to reflect how things actually work in our political system.

      Reply
      1. Michaelmas

        Hepativore: Trump has basically morphed into another Bush Jr. and it is the Iraq war all over again.

        Not where it will really matter, though, which is in the result of the conflict itself.

        During Gulf 2, the post-invasion occupation of Iraq was where it became clear US leadership was deeply incapable. But actual US military force projection, logistics, and the invasion itself were mostly effectively planned and carried out, which reflected, firstly, the US military’s greater capability in 2003 as compared to 2025, and, secondly, that global democratization of missile and drone technologies hadn’t really kicked in hard at that point to end the battlefield preponderance of the big-platform weapon systems the USA MIC so loved and loves. (The Hezbollah-Lebanon war in 2006 was when that trend started becoming clearly apparent, I guess.)

        Conversely, in 2025 we’re far along in the Norma Desmond phase of US military hegemony.

        [1] As that Kevin Walmsley video summarizes, China has the capability to restrict or yank entirely the resources (rare earths) that the US military requires to an extent comparable to that which the US had when in 1941 it cut off the resources (oil) that Japanese imperial aggression required then.

        [2] Furthermore, Japan in 1941 was a technologically and industrially advancing culture. The US in 2025 is by contrast a largely deindustrialized power whose main export is its financial debt, and whose weapon systems are in many cases the wrong weapons systems and where they’re not they’re a generation behind those of Russia and China, and perhaps other states’.

        Historically, empires and regimes have been most commonly brought down after substantial military defeats remove their credibility — for instance, Germany, Russia, and the Austro-Hungarian empires after WW1; the USSR after its Afghanistan debacle (together with Chernobyl) in the 1980s.

        It’s also historically true, however, that the US empire has carried on despite its serial military defeats since 1945 (Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, etc.) because Americans and American elites haven’t been seriously adversely effected by those failures due to dollar hegemony and the delusion that the US is protected by oceans on either side.

        But it’s 2025. What can’t go on, won’t go on

        Reply
    2. Wisker

      I agree as usual RK. But there is plenty of blame to go around for this state of affairs and it includes Russia, China, and that fool Pezeshkian. (Churlish to blame the Iranian electorate falling for promises of peace, prosperity, normalcy–happens to all of us).

      Geopolitically speaking, my hunch is Iran best focus on those military ties to North Korea. Russia and China are nearly useless here… and possibly worse than useless. Obviously they need to be kept on side for trade and diplomacy–Iran is weak and in the crosshairs. But over-reliance on them, or the BRICS talking shop, risks turning Iran into Syria.

      To paraphrase Alexander III, “Iran has two allies…” and they ain’t Russia and China.

      Reply
      1. Trees&Trunks

        What and for what purpose exactly do you expect from Russia and China and why would they agree to your demands?

        Reply
      2. Michaelmas

        Wisker: …there is plenty of blame to go around for this state of affairs and it includes Russia, China

        Blame? Why? Do you imagine that Xi and China or Putin and Russia somehow owe Iran their support because they’re all on the team you consider the ‘good guys’ — the Axis of Resistance ® — and have let that team down?

        No. Xi’s China and Putin’s Russia are mature civilization-states necessarily operating adult foreign policies, not performing in a Hollywood movie with good guys and bad guys. And adult foreign policies necessarily operate along the lines Lord Palmerston laid out:

        “We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow.”

        Now on those terms, it serves the interests of Beijing and Moscow to (1) prevent Iran from suffering a Western-imposed regime change and (2) to keep to the terms of whatever agreements they’ve established with Tehran. But ultimately it’s only on those terms.

        Reply
      1. The Rev Kev

        I was actually thinking of them when I wrote that. Hmmm. Trump & Vance vs Laurel and Hardy. Who to choose, who to choose…

        Reply
  3. Wukchumni

    You know that he would be untrue
    You know that he would be a liar
    If I was to say to him
    Bibi, honor that ceasefire

    Come on, Bibi, honor that ceasefire
    Come on, Bibi, honor that ceasefire
    Try not to set the world on fire

    The time to hesitate is through
    No time to wallow in the mire
    Try now, we can only lose
    And cities become a funeral pyre

    Come on, Bibi, honor that ceasefire
    Come on, Bibi, honor that ceasefire
    Try not to set the world on fire, yeah!

    The time to hesitate is through
    No time to wallow in the mire
    Try now, we can only lose
    And cities become a funeral pyre

    Come on, Bibi, honor that ceasefire
    Come on, Bibi, honor that ceasefire
    Try not to set the world on fire
    Try not to set the world on fire
    Try not to set the world on fire
    Try not to set the world on fire

    Light My Fire, by the Doors

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qoX6AKuYWL8

    Reply
    1. griffen

      Bravo and quite well done. And oddly enough, whilst staying indoors with hopes to ( also ) remain cooler I flipped channels around the old TV late yesterday. This music focused channel was running a top 10 listing of the musical period labeled the Grunge era….I remember the early and mid 90s music acts fondly and well. And like lead singer Morrison of the Doors, many of the grunge bands had lead singers who perished by their own hand or due to their vices.

      Slightly off topic but related, as early death seems to be a theme among these talented artists, who were also primary songwriters too; but they were also afflicted with seemingly those inner demons.

      Reply
    1. Retired Carpenter

      Thanks Stephanie! A nice change from all the sad/bad goings on.
      Good to see some of Nature’s Carpenters getting ready for their apprenticeship. Beavers, woodpeckers, carpenter bees… The hole a carpenter bee drills in cedar is about 1/2″ in diameter and perfectly round; I cannot do better w/ a decent Forstner bit. You would need a sharp chisel and half an hour or more to make a mortise like this woodpecker. Too bad they don’t join our Union and work with us…

      Reply
      1. dougie

        I would never have purchased a log cabin 25 years ago had I known about carpenter bees. Also, carpenter ants and the fact that woodpeckers see it as a food source despite it being in a wooded area.

        Next week, I am having vinyl board and batten siding installed on all exterior surfaces, trim included. I can still have the cabin experience inside, which is where I spend a large amount of my time anyway. The exterior will become maintenance free aside from a yearly pressure wash.

        I am still rooting for the beavers to dam up the spring fed creek so I can have a small pond. They haven’t shown too much interest so far. But I do see the occasional tree they down nearby

        Reply
        1. Wukchumni

          The standard procedure for a woodpecker hole in the side of your cabin in Mineral King is to first eat a can of beans, and then place the leftover lid over the offending hole, drive a few nails in and paint it brown to match the color.

          I think I have 27 lids on my cabin, the most i’ve seen is in the low 90’s.

          Reply
        2. The Rev Kev

          Sounds like a good plan but I have a question. How will you know or not if carpenter bees or carpenter ants have not made themselves a home in the space between the cabin walls and the vinyl boards?

          Reply
          1. Retired Carpenter

            Rev, Dougie,
            If the siding covers the logs properly carpenter bees will not bother to search for ingress. BUT, if the siding permits seepage the interior logs get wet and stay wet due to insufficient ventilation, carpenter ants will be a big (bigly?) problem. They prefer moist wood to burrow through. Make sure the structure is dry and use ant bait.
            Also note that woodpeckers can peck on vinyl siding to attract a mate. They are very territorial, can be really hard to get rid of. I used to do quite a lot of siding repair after woodpecker damage. Many repeat customers…

            Reply
            1. The Rev Kev

              I wonder if black-painted metal silhouettes of predator birds hung from the walls might deter those woodpeckers.

              Reply
            2. dougie

              Yes, the system will be moisture proof, right down to cutting off the ends of the corner logs off so a proper corner trim can be installed. I have an exteminator under contract who has done an admirable job of minimizing carpenter ant sightings. Maybe my Great Pyrenees rescue dogs can bark and scare off the woodpeckers? They bark at everything else! They scared off a black bear yesterday. The bear was stalking a doe and spotted fawn for dinner, but decided not to risk a tangle with two 130 pound herding dogs

              Reply
  4. .Tom

    Military Watch writes:

    On November 21, 2024, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defence Ministry publicised an intelligence assessment on Russian industry’s production capacity estimating that the country would to be able to produce up to 25 Oreshnik missiles monthly, which equates to production of 300 missiles per year.

    That does sound like a deterrent.

    Reply
  5. The Rev Kev

    “Iran Is Headed Toward Regime Collapse”

    Regrettably, though I respect his work, Nouriel Roubini’s past make this whole post a bit suspect-

    ‘Roubini was born in Istanbul, Turkey, to Iranian Orthodox Jewish parents. His father was a rug dealer. When he was young, Roubini was expected to go into the rug business himself, and follow in his father’s footsteps. When he was a year old, his family lived briefly in Tehran, Iran. When he was three years old, the family moved to Tel Aviv, Israel; he still has family in Israel. From 1963 when he was five years old to 1983 he lived in Italy, primarily in Milan, where he attended the local Jewish school. He later attended the Hebrew University of Jerusalem in Israel for one year, in 1976–77’

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nouriel_Roubini#Early_life

    Reply
    1. Wukchumni

      Count Formaldehyde hasn’t been right about anything since 2008, not that there is anything wrong with that.

      Reply
  6. JMH

    The Kellogg tweet or whatever they are called now. He sounds like a six year old sucking up. Does Trump demand that degree of obeisance.

    Reply
    1. griffen

      Not to contrast with RK thoughts necessarily, but I get a Ricky Bobby kind vibe from reading that tweeted comment about the WH and it’s office feelings of superior skills following this past weekend eventful news and so forth.

      From Talladega Nights, to wit…\sarc
      “I’m just a big hairy winning American machine…I wake in the morning and I just pee excellence…”

      Reply
  7. Wukchumni

    Gooooooooooood Mooooooooorning Fiatnam!

    The platoon had all signed a NDA and were ensconced in Venice dressed in Swiss Guard outfits assigned to shore duty for the wedding, and i’ve said too much already, sorry Jeff.

    Reply
    1. The Rev Kev

      Sure would be a shame if a halberd accidentally punctured a hole in Jeff’s boat when nobody was looking.

      Reply
  8. Pearl Rangefinder

    Some wild China-EU import figures being reported at SCMP: “China’s shipments of hi-tech goods to EU surge as its exports to US plunge”

    China’s shipments of hi-tech goods to the European Union went into overdrive last month, coinciding with a big drop in exports of the same goods to the US, suggesting that the superpower trade and tech wars could be affecting trade with Europe.
    Calculations based on recently published Chinese trade data showed that China in May exported huge amounts of batteries, laptops, smartphones and solar panels to the 27-member bloc, sending import numbers for some countries to unprecedented levels.

    China’s exports to Estonia soared 79.4 per cent in May compared to last year, and for Cyprus the number was 70.5 per cent, with 46.7 per cent in Bulgaria and 42 per cent in Hungary.

    The boom continued in bigger EU markets as France’s imports shot up 24.2 per cent, Germany’s 21.72 per cent and Sweden’s 20.4 per cent.

    With many EU markets enduring falling exports to China, the cumulative impact was a 22 per cent increase in the union’s trade deficit with the world’s second-largest economy in May.

    Reply
  9. griffen

    Heat wave is on like Donkey Kong. The southern US and Southeast is gonna get a toasty, crispy baking starting today. Receiving a few alerts or emails from Duke Energy on methods or helpful suggestions to alleviate the energy load. Some steps seem like ready made for, in broad terms, many common sense people and families, say avoid doing the laundry or running a dishwasher in the mid day hours.

    Am I the only one ( seems unlikely ) who thought about the Dukes of Hazzard and the General Lee when watching the car jump after the street buckled ? “Yee…Haw…”. To add, definitely not the horrid movie version from about 2005 or so.

    Reply
  10. The Rev Kev

    “What Caused The Great Stink of London?”

    A case of a problem where the elites could not ignore it thinking it only effected the plebs-

    ‘Luckily enough for the denizens of London, even the elite were not exempt from such an odious odour:
    ‘The intense heat had driven our legislators from those portions of their buildings which overlook the river. A few members, indeed, bent upon investigating the matter to its very depth, ventured into the library, but they were instantaneously driven to retreat, each man with a handkerchief to his nose.’

    Members of Parliament tried at first to stay the course and continue their sessions without agreeing to any drastic plans of reform. They knew that any action taken in regards to ridding the stench would involve an arduous overhauling of the entire infrastructure of the Thames. Many lawmakers were hesitant to make such a commitment and tried instead to relieve their own battered senses.

    Their first attempt to quench the stench involved dousing the curtains of Parliament in a mixture of chloride and lime. When that didn’t work, they even considered removing the entire government from the Westminster area—despite the newly constructed building they had only recently acquired. That idea was quickly dropped and soon, days had passed without the formation of a solid resolution. Eventually, the stench simply began to overpower the staunch sensibilities of many of the Members, some who could even be ‘seen fleeing from the Chamber, handkerchief to nose, complaining loudly about the “Stygian Pool” that the Thames had become.’

    ‘Say what you will about the Victorians, when they set their mind to an engineering project, they carried it through. The engineering solution they came up with was carried out and served London for many generations and is still being used to this day. Take that neoliberalism-

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Stink#Construction

    Reply
    1. Michaelmas

      Rev Kev: Take that neoliberalism-

      No sh*t. A few randoms pics of still-existing Victorian sewage plants —

      https://offloadmedia.feverup.com/secretldn.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/18105606/crossness-pumping-station-beautiful.jpg

      And here,

      And here.

      After I moved to the UK and central London a couple of years ago, the first time I crossed Kensington Park Gardens past the Albert Memorial, I felt like H.G. Wells’s time traveler when he gets to the far future, sees that giant statue of a sphinx, and wonders what strange, alien people could have built such a thing, because it certainly couldn’t have been built by people like he knew. In my case, I just thought, “Oh, I know — it was Victorians.”

      Victorian Gothic architecture a la the Houses of Parliament is also pretty damned singular when you look at it and think about it, as it bears no resemblance to any Gothic architecture actually existing in any time and place, but rather was entirely a confection of Victorian imagination based, AFAIK, on their ideas of medieval England and William Morris’s ideas of medieval craftsmanship and design.

      Reply
  11. Safety First

    Boy, that Roubini article…I had never been a huge fan of his, but when did he start toeing the US-Israel party line?

    I mean:

    “…the Islamic Republic has financed terrorist groups in the Middle East for decades and has caused state failure or semi-failure across the region: in Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, Gaza/Palestine, Iraq.”

    “A nuclear Iran would have been a threat not just to Israel but all Sunni regimes in the Middle East, as well as nearby Europe and eventually the US. ”

    “Regime collapse in Iran, it should be hoped, will boost stability and allow for reconstruction in the region, with normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.”

    And then there are his…other views:

    “Current movements of oil prices, US and global equities, US and global bond yields, and currencies suggest that a major stagflationary shock coming from a severe disruption of production and energy exports from the Persian Gulf remains only a tail risk, not the baseline scenario.”

    Because global equities have always been a leading indicator and predictor of events?? Are we really peddling the Efficient Market Hypothesis again??

    “…the US and other major new non-OPEC energy producers have emerged; Saudi Arabia and others are able to tap large excess production capacity and inventories. ”

    Because producing oil and transporting oil (out of the Strait of Hormuz) is the same thing??

    “And in case oil prices rise as US involvement in this war creates new risks, a variety of macro policies and other tools can be used to reduce the stagflationary impact.”

    Like what??? He links to his own piece from November 2024, entitled “Israel and Iran Are Likely to Escalate”, but I can’t read it without registration. And even if whatever he means is theoretically feasible, he expects Trump & Co. to be competent enough to implement said steps in a timely and efficient manner??

    “The Iranian people – not outside forces – will trigger [regime change in Iran] in the next year. Iranians have revolted against their regime at least a half-dozen times in the last few decades, and, when given the chance, they have always chosen moderate leaders over theocratic zealots. ”

    I would like to see a list of those revolts, and their effectiveness, over the “past few decades”. I would also like for Roubini to comment on the not-too-distant election of Ahmadinejad. I won’t even mention his flawed understanding of how regime change happens. Oh, and he links to a Foreign Affairs piece from June 20 called “The Right Path to Regime Change in Iran” that’s actually a follow-up to the same authors’ regime-change-in-Iran piece from 2020. Except now it’s about “creating conditions” (destabilizing the hell out of the country) for regime change, instead of doing it directly. Apparently.

    —–

    Look, I’m all in favor of presenting a plurality of opinions here, but suggest that we just skip Roubini and go straight to having a regular bi-weekly feature reposting the latest writings of Hamish de Breton-Gordon in the Telegraph. Like his piece yesterday, “Putin will be quaking in his boots today. Iran-Israel has shown he is vulnerable” (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06/23/russia-putin-weak-air-defence-sead-iran/), which is almost as amusing as his May 2023 oeuvres. [The ones where cold, starving Russian conscripts huddling in their trenches were supposed to run away at the mere sight of Western-made tanks.]

    Reply
  12. Wukchumni

    {twofer Tuesday}

    Catch a wave and you’ll be sweltering in this part of the world

    Don’t be afraid to try the greatest heat around
    (Catch a wave, catch a wave) Everybody who tries it once
    Hopes the grid don’t go down a bunch
    You turn the a/c on to reduce the daze
    And baby that’s all there is to the climate change craze
    Catch a wave and you’re sweltering in this part of the world

    Not a fact, cause it’s been going on so long
    (Catch a wave, catch a wave) All the deniers still going strong
    They said it wouldn’t last too long
    They’ll eat their words with a fork and spoon
    And watch ’em they’ll hit the road and all be sufferin’ soon
    And when they catch a wave they’ll be hurtin’ all over the world

    Catch a wave and you’re in a SPF-666 world
    So take a lesson from a top-notch mountain boy
    (Catch a wave, catch a wave) who knows every escape ploy
    But don’t treat it like a toy
    Just get away from the exposed turf
    And baby avoid some rays on the sunny surf
    And when you catch a wave you’ll be sweltering in this part of the world
    Catch a wave and you’ll be looking for another part of the world

    Catch a Wave, by the Beach Boys

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X_CBWxmTlRI

    Reply
  13. The Rev Kev

    “Russian Warship Spotted Escorting Two Inbound Stateless Tankers”

    So I take it that that idea of banning Russian ships from the Baltic Sea has been shelved now. Some of those Baltic nations effed around and have now found out.

    Reply
    1. Munchausen

      … it was “deliberate timing” for the tankers to meet up with the Russian corvette Boikiy as they reached the English Channel and headed to the Baltic.

      It seems like this is not only about Baltic Chihuahuas, but also the cunning plans of the Albion.

      Reply
  14. Wukchumni

    Leavitt to Believers: pilot episode

    An accidental sitcom, follow the misadventures of Karoline and the trouble she gets herself into while navigating an often-incomprehensible, sometimes illogical world-never telling the truth consistently, in fact similar to her doyen Donald, she might spontaneously combust were she to be completely truthful for once, but she does it with such aplomb and that crucifix around her neck signifies that honesty died for our sins.

    Reply
  15. The Rev Kev

    ‘OSINTdefender
    @sentdefender
    So far Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, Yemen, and the Palestinian Authority have all condemned tonight’s ballistic missile attack by Iran against Al Udeid Airbase in Qatar.’

    Meanwhile, the populations of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, Yemen, and the Palestinian Authority were not asked for their opinions.

    Reply
  16. AG

    re: Iran

    Moon of Alabama:

    “Tic-Toc 9 On The War On Iran

    A ceasefire.

    To be broken in 3, 2, 1 …

    Added:

    Patrick Armstrong

    So, what have we learned?

    Iran is a lot more powerful than many people thought.
    Western air defence systems aren’t very effective.
    Who knew those little Iranian lawnmower-engined dorito drones could get all the way to Israel?
    Hypersonic missiles are invulnerable and very frightening.
    Tehran now knows which missiles in its arsenal are most effective and which most effectively soak up the enemy’s air defence and will build accordingly
    Tehran’s decision to follow the missile-based armament route is vindicated. Suvorov: “Fight the enemy with the weapons he lacks“; Sun Tsu: “avoid strength and strike weakness“. `Others will notice.
    Israel has used up the sleeper cells and intelligence penetration that it had built up in Iran.

    and

    My predictions.

    The damage in Israel will be much greater and much more effective than we have been told.
    In Iran, not so much.

    I agree.”

    https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/06/tic-toc-thread-on-the-war-on-iran-9.html#comments

    Reply

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