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Links 6/18/2025

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New York City Council Proposes Legislation to Make Bodega Cats Completely Legal Laughing Squid (resilc)

Evolution made us cheats, now free-riders run the world and we need to change, new book warns University of Cambridge. Paul R:

To save democracy and solve the world’s biggest challenges, we need to get better at spotting and exposing people who exploit human cooperation for personal gain, argues Cambridge social scientist Dr Jonathan Goodman.

This looks interesting. Book is called “Invisible Rivals”. Publisher link: https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300274356/invisible-rivals/

Helen Lewis on The Genius Myth Yascha Mounk

Threat in Your Medicine Cabinet: The FDA’s Gamble on America’s Drugs ProPublica (Robin K)

Climate/Environment

Climate hits UK farmers, food, bills The Ecologist

Kabul To Become The First City To Run Out Of Water. Youth Incorporated

China?

Chinese cars and factories flooding EU market, and blows up protectionist tariff system Kevin Walmsley

China’s AI system builds Intel-class chips with zero US software Interesting Engineering (Chuck L)

China stockpiling nuclear warheads at fastest rate globally, new research shows Guardian

India-Pakistan

India won’t accept 3rd party mediation with Pakistan, Modi tells Trump Anadolu Agency

Africa

South Africa Built a Medical Research Powerhouse. Trump Cuts Have Demolished It. New York Times

Jane Goodall chimpanzee conservation project in Tanzania hit by USAID cuts Guardian (resilc)

European Disunion

“Iran is a terrorist regime” Tagesschau via machine translation (guurst)

The translate button works if you have an account. Otherwise please try machine translation:

Old Blighty

UK Spy Agency MI6 Appoints First Female Chief in 116-Year History New York Times (resilc). One hates to say it, but putting a woman in charge is regularly a sign that an organization is in decline.

Israel v. Iran

“WE” Are At War With Iran Mark Wauck

Trump Seeks Iran’s ‘Unconditional Surrender’ as War Escalates Bloomberg. This will age worse than “Mission Accomplished.”

Please click through for important detail:

America Is Being Chain-Ganged Into a War  American Conservative (resilc)

A fairly fresh take: Something’s Happening Here, What it is Ain’t Exactly Clear… Larry Johnson

Col. Larry Wilkerson: Is War with Iran the Final Blow to the American Empire? Dialogue Work, YouTube. A must listen.

‘TACO Syndrome’ Could Tempt Trump to Ride the Wave of Israel’s Success and Join the War Against Iran Haaretz. Looks like Hareetz has submitted to the censors.

Strikes so far against Israel just a warning, punitive operations to follow: Iran’s top general PressTV

Iran shoots down fifth Israeli F-35 — municipal authorities TASS (guurst)

Why Israel’s attacks are backfiring as Iranians rally around the flag Middle East Eye (resilc). Widely predicted but confirmation still useful.

Clearest sign yet Trump is preparing to blitz Iran as huge US air armada of DOZENS of military jets lands in UK & Europe The Sun (resilc)

Tel Aviv miscalculates: Why Israel’s shock strategy failed against Iran The Cradle

New missiles launched from Iran spotted over Tel Aviv, occupied West Bank Aljazeera, YouTube. Daylight raid. Iran has plenty in reserve, so a question of whether this is to unnerve and further deplete air defenses.

* * *

A Nation of Martyrs Julian Macfarlane

* * *

China sends mystery transport planes into Iran Telegraph (Paul R)

Tanker Risk Response to Iran-Israel Is The Real Oil Chokepoint OilPrice (resilc)

Mapping Iran’s oil and gas sites and those attacked by Israel Aljazeera (resilc)

Beijing has more at stake in Iran besides just oil Reuters (resilc)

On current trajectories Trump staffers will need hazmat suits to do media damage control:

* * *

‘Imperial whore’: Top Pakistani official goes after son of overthrown shah of Iran Middle East Eye

Israel v. the Rest of the Resistance

New Not-So-Cold War

Russo-Ukrainian War: The Flaming Olive Branch Big Serge

Ukraine war latest: Massive Russian attack kills 24, injures 134 in Kyiv Kyiv Independent

Uptick on at least my Twitter feed of wailing about effective Russian strikes, such as:

Pouring more money and weapons down the drain. But Canada does have a lot of Ukronazis:

Big Brother is Watching You Watch

Lawmakers Demand Palantir Provide Information About U.S. Contracts New York Times (resilc)

Washington Post’s email system hacked, journalists’ accounts compromised Bleeping Computer (Paul R)

Imperial Collapse Watch

‘Expensive and complicated’: Most rural hospitals no longer deliver babies Kansas Reflector (Robin K)

The four US states where psychopaths are most likely to live… are YOU living near one? Daily Mail (resilc). Looks accurate to me. New York is on the list.

Trump 2.0

Trump Is Daring Us to Impeach Him Again New York Times. resilc: “My prediction last nov was he would be dead or impeached and removed by mid 27……”

Under GOP Budget Bill, You’d Have to Be Rich to Sue the Trump Administration Intercept (resilc)

47 signs from the anti-Trump ‘No Kings’ protests Reuters (resilc)

Far-Right ‘Appeal to Heaven’ Flag Flown Above Government Agency in DC Wired (resilc)

BREAKING: Rand Paul Speaks Out After Being Uninvited From White House Picnic: ‘War On My Family’ YouTube (resilc)

Tariffs

These are the sticking points holding up a U.S.-EU trade deal CNBC. As readers have said, you would never know a war was on if you looked at the landing page of CNBC.

Fed Ponders If Tariff Hit Is Less, or Just Later, Than Expected Bloomberg

US tariffs ‘severely impacting’ Japanese firms, including automakers: Premier Anadolu Agency

Immigration

Brad Lander, NYC comptroller and mayoral candidate, is arrested outside immigration court Associated Press

ICE agents confirmed to attend Miami’s Club World Cup matches as ticket sales and prices plummet US Sun (resilc)

Democrat Death Wish

The Secret to Trump’s Appeal That Democrats Still Miss New York Times. Note the headline is now: It’s Not Just Trump Voters. Both Parties Are in Denial.

Fetterman Sides With Trump Over Fellow Democrats On Iran New Republic (resilc)

Our No Longer Free Press

In Macron’s France, Tweeting in Support of Palestine Can Get You Jail Time CounterPunch (resilc)

AI

Confirmation that NC is doing readers a BIG favor by not allowing AI generated content in comments….on the assumption that you care about your brain:

Underlying paper: Your Brain on ChatGPT: Accumulation of Cognitive Debt when Using an AI Assistant for Essay Writing Task ArXiv (GM)

Stanford Research Finds That “Therapist” Chatbots Are Encouraging Users’ Schizophrenic Delusions and Suicidal Thoughts Futurism (resilc)

The Bezzle

Trump Mobile’s T1 is made in China Apple Insider (resilc)

Class Warfare

The Big Republican Cost-Shift: Massive Cuts to Medicaid and the ACA Will Increase Costs for Older Adults and Medicare Health Affairs

Antidote du jour (via):

And a bonus (Chuck L):

A second bonus (guurst):

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

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103 comments

  1. Antifa

    Israel
    (melody borrowed from The Star Spangled Banner written by Francis Scott Key in 1814)

    Israel can now see in the Arab sunlight
    That their sneak attack failed, and they’re in for a reaming
    Hiding bombs inside cars, sending drones in the night,
    This was thoroughly botched—viral vids are now streaming
    Netanyahu can glare and deliver hot air
    But when you pick a fight then you oughta fight fair
    Let your citizens leave, they were never that brave
    They’re all voting with their feet, and there’s not much to save

    Let the nations convene; they have treaties to keep
    Your economy’s toast; trade your guns in for roses
    No more checking ID’s, no more uniformed sheep,
    Where the olive tree grows we are not ruled by Moses
    Keep your Zionist dream; keep your murderous scheme
    Palestine’s disinfected, it’s your turn to scream
    Take your noise and your clamor across the ocean waves
    You can make Old Europe free if you’ll all just behave

    Reply ↓
  2. Unironic Pangloss

    >>> dependence weakens the writer’s own neural and linguistic fingerprints

    There is linguistics-semantics “uncanny valley” from LLM-generated prose…like in the film “They Live” once you see the word formulas, grade level, and faux genteel-nees used by LLM, you can’t unsee it. I sticks out like a sore thumb and is a burden to read

    I hate it, lol. And bet colloquial lanbuage will coverge towards AI-speak within 10 years, especially as kids and “elites” drive language

    Reply ↓
    1. Kristiina

      Agree abou the llm text. To me, it resembles the language and worldview of those magazines that used to be in aeroplanes. Those have largely disappeared but the vacuousness is now everywhere. To me the scary thing is that there are many people who really think& speak/write like llm. Sort of like marketing lingo without punchline. Don’t know if swimming in those waters will be healthy.

      Reply ↓
      2. JMH

        How long before language regresses to the level of 1984’s NewSpeak? Even without LLM’s the complexity of language in general use is declining. Well, what the heck, no one can tell the difference and I need a nap or a game or something.

        Reply ↓
      3. Grateful Dude

        And when the LLMs are trained on journalism or comments thereof it’s just a disaster.

        I think public and journalistic language has deteriorated a lot since I was educated. What I call journalese is a contagious disorder. Some writers are immune and use language well, but I see a lot of preposition abuse and overuse of passive constructions, the former a symptom of contagion in general, and the latter of an unwillingness to commit as a writer to what is being written. Both contribute to ambiguity in general and weaken semantics throughout.

        Examples include the use of “in advance of” instead of “before”, now universal, and “around” instead of “about”: “before” and “about” are about lost anymore. Then there’s “post” instead of “after”; just horrible. “post” is already seriously overloaded: fence post, post up (basketball), post office, job post, etc.

        On passive constructions, a simple example is “that is indicative of a bad attitude”. How about “that indicates a bad attitude” instead: assertive, active, and transitive. I call it the “ive-of” syndrome. It’s a plague.

        I used to edit technical white papers at work, a nightmare of bad writing, so I’ve seen it all. Tech writing cannot be creative. Journalism should be clever, but it isn’t literature and ambiguity is the enemy of clarity.

        And curiously, here at NC I see a lot of compound nouns broken into their noun component words. That often changes the grammar of the sentence as in “what is the subject here?”: “They were playing base ball”. And please stop using nouns as adverbs, which has been common ever since we “self quarantined” ourselves. At least use a hyphen. And, I cringe at an infinitive split by a noun-adverb.

        OMG, and “tons” of anything abstract or weightless. I get it, but it isn’t funny anymore.

        Reply ↓
      4. Random

        The fact that LLMs generate text in that style means that a lot of training data in that same style was used to train them.
        So a lot of people who speak/write like that already existed before LLMs.

        Reply ↓
        1. Revenant

          Maybe. But if there is some sort of average / “energy” minimisation technique in the LLM steps, you could imagine that the LLM arrives at the style because it represents the common minimla set of styles, whereas real people may write with a higher energy in at least one dimension (vocabulary or syntax or grammar etc). The LLM picks a style that is stripped down in all aspects.

          There is also the “fawning” aspect of LLM’s. The algorithm succeeds if it pleases the largest audience so there is a least-common-denominator tendency in its style. You could imagine an LLM with a style so spare that it becomes modernist literature (or a parody of Hemingway or Pinter) but this would be rejected in favour of something with all the sharp edges filed off….

          Reply ↓
    2. Ben Panga

      I now have a violent internal reaction to texts/docs containing “It’s not xxxx. Instead, it’s yyy and zzz!” among others

      Reply ↓
    3. Skip Intro

      You have an interesting theory about colloquial language converging to LLM-speak. It mirrors the process of model collapse where they lose diversity and converge on a narrow set of outputs. If novel human writing also converges towards this narrowed field, it dooms LLMs to model collapse even when fed on pure human writing. Further, it predicts that model collapse is contagious to humans. So like the low background steel and pre-LLM language databases, human writers not exposed to AI output will become a critical vestigial resource.
      Thanks again NC, for making our brains more valuable!

      Reply ↓
    4. Ignacio

      The only problem that NC has when forbidding AI is that you find comments by some “Ignacio”, and may be others, whose English writing skills are close to criminal. Criminal but original.

      Reply ↓
  3. The Rev Kev

    “China sends mystery transport planes into Iran”

    ‘Getting involved directly in the Iran-Israel conflict could torpedo any change China has to stabilise its relations with the US, Israel’s strongest ally. Beijing is still reeling from a high-stakes trade war with Washington.’

    That’s funny that. As if China does not know that if Iran falls, that they are next on the menu. There is zero chance of stabilizing any relationship with the Trump regime as his Cabinet is full of China hawks who are raring to go after them. For at least the next three and a half years there will be attacks on them, their allies, their belts and roads initiative and Chinese in general anywhere in the world. And they make out that China was the one ‘still reeling from a high-stakes trade war with Washington.’ Seriously? So far as I know, nobody is calling President Xi by the nickname XACO Xi.

    Reply ↓
    1. ex-PFC Chuck

      If when operation F*** Iran starts to go pear shaped I expect China to make Taiwan an offer it would be stupid to reject.

      Reply ↓
      1. JMH

        Let’s see. The US government, those under the spell DC Bubble and Echo Chamber, supports genocide in Gaza. Now the US government,those under the spell DC Bubble and Echo Chamber, supports aggression against Iran. Is the next step to be direct aggression by those under the spell of the DC Bubble and Echo Chamber to be direct and open US aggression against Iran. I suppose so as that would be in line with the goal of weakening Iran, overthrowing its current government, because that pleases Bibi and Miriam and Lindsay et al and strikes a blow at Russia and opens the way to get at China, and like the Brain … you know the old cartoon, Pinky and the Brain … Brain’s goal was world domination … like the neocons … do you suppose Brain was a satirical slap at the neocons. Anyway, good luck, all your assumptions about Iran collapsing, running out of missiles , and so on and so forth … your script writes need a creativity boost and the playbook could use an update. But sarcasm has its limits so I shall stop.

        Reply ↓
  4. Wukchumni

    It’s The Most Blunderful Time Of The Year
    With the IDF pounding Persian decoy surroundings
    And everyone telling you things are not as they appear
    It’s The Most Blunderful Time Of The Year
    It’s the unhap—unhappiest season of all
    With those drone greetings and missile meetings
    When push meets shove comes to call
    It’s the unhap—unhappiest season of all
    There’ll be scapegoats for hosting
    Civilians for toasting
    And carrying out of the show
    There’ll be scary Iran stories
    And tales of the glories of
    1967 long, long ago
    It’s The Most Blunderful Time Of The Year
    There’ll be much missiles going
    And corpses will be glowing
    When loved ones are near
    It’s The Most Blunderful Time Of The Year!

    Reply ↓
  5. ChrisFromGA

    Trump is an utterly despicable human being. Threatening the religious leader of Iran is the sort of thing you would expect from a mob boss. Does his cretin-sized IQ understand that this man is a spiritual symbol for millions of Iranians? Has Kim Jong-un threatened to kill the Pope?

    Reply ↓
    1. The Rev Kev

      I really don’t think that he understands the significance of what he actually said and it’s consequences. I would say that he said it because he figured that it would give him leverage against the Iranians by threatening to kill their spiritual leader. Like how in his first term he threatened to destroy all of Iran’s historic and cultural buildings. It’s all about getting leverage over other people and make them do what he wants. You know. Just like a mob boss as you said.

      Reply ↓
      1. ChrisFromGA

        It’s also really, really, stupid. If regime change is the goal, he just insulted the spiritual leader of the nation he’s trying to convince to overthrow.

        The man’s hubris is practically begging for a Greek Tragic ending. I think that the Universe will deliver.

        As an aside, I am starting to pick up on max hubris coming out of the media in terms of overestimating the effectiveness of the IDF’s initial raids and damage to Iran. It reminds me of the beginning of the SMO in Ukraine – for a few weeks in early March, 2022, everyone (including pundits like Ritter) thought that the Russians were going to win a quick knock-out victory. Kiev was surrounded by a force that we now realize was far too small to achieve a military objective of taking the city. It was a feint. But here we are over three years later and the war is still going.

        Likewise, I believe that even if Netanyahu lures the foolish Orange Julius into bombing the nuclear facility in Iran, putting American soldiers in harms way, it won’t win the war, and the Iranians will dig in and prepare for a long war, supplied by China and Iran.

        Reply ↓
    2. Colonel Smithers

      Thank you and well said, Chris.

      May I add that the vassals / poodles have said nothing to distance themselves from this idiocy.

      Having worked with US executives, I marvelled at how transactional, ignorant, vulgar and brash so many, if not most, were. Trump is typical.

      This may explain why, back in the day, the Trump family was ostracised by the NYC business establishment, but the composition of the US business elite has changed over recent decades.

      Reply ↓
      1. Michaelmas

        Colonel S.:Having worked with US executives, I marvelled at how transactional, ignorant, vulgar and brash so many, if not most, were. Trump is typical.

        Seconded.

        Reply ↓
          1. Colonel Smithers

            Thank you.

            My experience is largely of Big Finance types, but I have met some industrialists.

            Reply ↓
        2. Colonel Smithers

          Thank you, M.

          As America declines, I imagine fewer and fewer people will mind their language about US politicians, officials and business executives. There’s a lot of resentment built up over decades.

          I’m a lifelong racing enthusiast and working from home this week, so have Ascot on. As my parents and I watched the royal procession up the straight, we noticed the Saudi princes in the king’s carriage yesterday and today, and wondered if Trump and his moll would ever be invited.

          Reply ↓
          2. Wukchumni

            Colonel,

            I never think of Trump being involved in any capacity in the Sport of Kings, kind of similar to him not being a skier, even though his first wife was on the Czech junior national ski team~

            Many ‘oval offices’ in the USA have a grass infield, and if you could convince Ascot to put in an 18 hole course, that might be magnetic to him?

            Reply ↓
    3. ilsm

      The top Ayatollah is not Diem, and his Mullahs are not like Diem’s family.

      Will Trump’s budding air war be any better than his effete tryst over Yemen, or going “downtown over Hanoi”?

      Trump-Bibi mind is concerning how about the 25 Amendment?

      Reply ↓
  6. Colonel Smithers

    Thank you, Yves.

    Further to the links about MI6 and Canuckistan, please let me recount a chat with dad yesterday night.

    Some readers may recall my mentions of dad working in Saudi Arabia.

    I mentioned the new head of MI6, Blaise Metreveli. That sparked an anecdote. Dad worked in / from Riyadh from late 1992 to early 2015, including at the Armed Forces Hospital. Some years before his arrival, a Metreveli ran and taught radiology there and around the region, not just the kingdom. The professor returned from Hong Kong and London from time to time to lecture in the 1990s and noughties.

    Before the radiologist introduced himself, dad thought he may be of Italian origin. He said he was of Ukrainian origin. However, veterans / older colleagues in Riyadh also remembered him as using the surname Borkovski and saying he was of Polish origin.

    That professor appears to be the father of the chief spook.

    It’s interesting that Yves mentions an organisation in decline when a woman is appointed or runs. That was said a few weeks ago with regard to Kemi Badenoch and the Tories. The glass cliff was used to describe.

    Reply ↓
    1. Revenant

      Aye, good to have this confirmed from personal history. It matches the Lord Bebo post.

      “She’s not British (or Georgian as her last name) by origin, she’s from Hong Kong. Her dad, after serving in the British army, was head of the radiology department at the local university, CUHK – here’s a mention in his scientific papers, for example.

      And he’s not Metreveli, he’s Konstantin Dobrovolsky, the naturalization record is available, page 9354, the very top. Before naturalization, her ancestors had a Nansen passport, which they received for taking valuables out of the USSR.

      In general, it’s very clear who and against whom they will work, according to tradition. Congratulations on your appointment, Bella Konstantinovna Dobrovolskaya.”

      https://nitter.poast.org/MyLordBebo/status/1934692730262741274#m

      It is worrying that she has Ukrainian antecedents rather than Russian. It suggests the UK is going the way of the Vindmans, Nulands and Freelands. As I wrote before, when you know the background and you look at her photograph, shes a beautiful killer Natasha….

      Reply ↓
      1. Colonel Smithers

        Thank you, R.

        At the time, dad wondered why the use of different names. This said, it was not unknown in Saudi Arabia, but usually by people with many Arab / Muslim names.

        Dad and I are surfing between Queen’s and Ascot. I just asked him. He’s clear that the professor used Metreveli and Borkovski. When I first heard Borkovski, I thought of the Bulgarian branch of the Saxe-Coburg tribe.

        I hope you are hale and following Kneecap’s appearance at court. I have asked my significant other to see them at Glasto next week.

        I agree. Nijinsky is attractive. I have come across them in the City. That’s what we older City types call them. Natasha is the name given to sex workers from the former USSR in the middle east.

        Reply ↓
        1. Revenant

          I was planning to attend the court and travelled into London but then had to turn around for domestic reasons. I’ll post some links of proceedings. It was a good turnout!

          Definitely see them at Glasto! And the rest of you can watch them on iPlayer!

          Reply ↓
      1. Revenant

        LOL! But that is because the people who count in the UK are a small world.

        There are about 200,000 living Oxbridge graduates and they all know each other and all the rest of the people worth knowing in the UK. It’s the National Sorting Hat. No social circle is safe from an Oxbridge graduate turning up in it and trying to co-opt it.

        If you include the great public schools (under 100,000 alumni, many of whom overlap with the Oxbridge set), you’ve covered everything from junkies and journalists to judges and jockeys.

        Reply ↓
      2. vao

        “Colonel Smithers seems to know first or second hand all the people that count in the UK.”

        And their genealogy too!

        Reply ↓
  7. Wukchumni

    Do you hear what I hear?
    Said the Gaza sufferers to the little fattened lamb
    Do you see what I see? (Do you see what I see?)
    Way up in the sky, little fattened lamb
    Do you see what I see? (Do you see what I see?)
    A rocket, a rocket, dancing in the night
    With a tail as big as a kite
    With a tail as big as a kite

    Said the Gaza boy to the little fattened lamb
    Do you hear what I hear? (Do you hear what I hear?)
    Ringing through the sky, and on Tel Aviv will land
    Do you hear what I hear? (Do you hear what I hear?)
    An airstrike, an airstrike high above the trees
    With an impact you will soon see
    With an impact you will soon see

    Said the Gaza boy to the David king
    Do you know what I know? (Do you know what I know?)
    In your Knesset warm, David king
    Do you know what I know? (Do you know what I know?)
    A child, a Gaza child expires before getting old
    Let the Zionists bring him out of the fold
    Let the Zionists bring him out of the fold
    Said the David king to all the right people everywhere
    Listen to what I say! (Listen to what I say!)
    Pray for peace, people, everywhere
    Listen to what I say! (Listen to what I say!)
    The IDF, the IDF sweeping in the night
    It will bring us goodness through might
    It will bring us goodness through might

    Reply ↓
  8. The Rev Kev

    “The four US states where psychopaths are most likely to live… are YOU living near one?”

    Of course Washington DC should be at the top of this list but that place is a District and not a State. Maybe a better way is to measure the density of psychopaths is by population instead.

    Reply ↓
    1. TomDority

      Maybe, instead of where psychopaths are most likely to live….the study should determine at what profesions psychopaths are making a living.
      Like some pedos are attracted to the boy scouts or churches for the access is provides.

      Reply ↓
  9. Adam1

    “…we need to get better at spotting and exposing people who exploit human cooperation for personal gain…”

    I think Fortune publishes a list every year.

    Reply ↓
    1. jefemt

      That needs the coffee warning.

      Is there an emoji for that? Sort of like the number of chilis next to a spicy entree on a menu?

      Reply ↓
    2. Anonymous

      With the rise in narcissism, people who exploit human cooperation for personal gain seem to be quite common -not just those listed in Fortune. It’s a sad state of affairs when doing to others as you would have them do to you has become a recipe for being taken advantage of. Spotting these ungrateful grifters is a basic survival skill in our modern world.

      Reply ↓
  10. Unironic Pangloss

    In the Twitter OSINT rabbit hole, 45% of Twitter creators harvests content from the other half.

    if you want more signal and less noise (and don’t speak Farsi, Arabic, Hebrew), check out…

    https://x.com/irnaenglish (Iran News Agency)
    https://x.com/tasnimnews_en (aligned with IRGC)
    https://x.com/PressTV (“independent”)
    https://t.me/s/SabrenNews22 (allegedly aligned w/Iraqi sectarian elements…adding it cuz it’s big and has is patient zero for a lot of scraped OSINT content)

    (not leaving out Hebrew sites on purpose….that’s a whole other rabbit hole that I don’t have the time for)

    compare/contrast to OSINT accounts….you’ll see where OSINT gets much of their flash content

    Reply ↓
  11. griffen

    The bond market preponderance and pontificating will reach a temporary point of quiet later this afternoon…. By the bye, from a CNBC article seems to hint strongly there will be no action taken today. We’re firmly into Dr. Seuss and One Fish Two Fish territory on the hyped dot plot….all due respect to Chair Powell who will or may lose in the court of public opinion, albeit US economic things all seem to be in an ongoing state of flux.

    Reply ↓
    1. ChrisFromGA

      Will Orange Julius take a break from threatening the Iranians to threaten Jay Powell if he doesn’t deliver on his demand of 100bps of “shock and awe” rate cuts?

      What will the Dread Pirate’s punishment for defiance be? Fifty lashes on truth social? Walk the plank?

      Or will be get a “Whacky Wednesday” three-taco special?

      Reply ↓
      1. ambrit

        As things stand now, I would not be surprised if Powell were to suffer an “unfortunate” accident that removes him from power.
        This need not be a “terminal event” for the man. It could be a false flag style “disabling event” such as a reportedly “disabling stroke” or some such. The medicos who handle the event would naturally all be members of the elite inner circle. (The ultimate “Appeal to Authority.”)

        Reply ↓
        2. ChrisFromGA

          Trump has already threatened to go around the Fed and lower interest rates directly himself.

          Under what authority he claims, only the gods know. That would certainly violate the statutory authority of Congress, which established the Federal Reserve in 1913.

          Reply ↓
  12. Steve H.

    > Evolution made us cheats, now free-riders run the world and we need to change, new book warns University of Cambridge.

    Starts with George Price and moves rapidly to Kropotkin. My kind of book. Well written, solid bibliography, from the parts I have read in the See Inside:

    books.google.com/books?id=ZoxbEQAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_ViewAPI&hl=en#v=onepage&q&f=false

    Reply ↓
  14. Pearl Rangefinder

    This small snippet from Tucker Carlson’s upcoming interview with Ted Cruz is stunning in it’s revealing of American “leadership” and their complete intellectual bankruptcy. Tucker asks Cruz for basic info on Iran, and the man has no fu***ng idea. None! No idea Iran is a country of 90 million, and these clowns want to open up a war against them? Population, ethnic makeup, it all apparently “doesn’t matter” to Cruz. Talk about LaLa land. But I guess when you’re an Israeli shill, truth (and apparently any kind of sense) is not part of the package. The only job is to rubber stamp what your handlers give you.

    https://xcancel.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1935136085266387417#m

    The other clip on Israel spying on America is another jaw-dropper ( https://xcancel.com/TCNetwork/status/1935166889136955846#m ), even if we all know it’s true and we’ve known for a long time.

    It’s quite something to see the level of degradation(? de-evolution?) in how ‘The Empire’ operates, they just don’t give a flying f**k anymore. Not even a fig leaf of pretense or build up, nothing, they will just bomb the sh*t out of whoever, whenever, and not even give us the courtesy of a false-flag to try and justify it somehow. Amazing.

    Reply ↓
    1. Wukchumni

      Ted’s all hat and no Canada…

      Amazing lack of knowledge in regards to Iran, he really has no idea whatsoever, and then divulges that ‘we’ are attacking them, and gives it the good old college try in attempting to walk it back, before launching into a ‘I know you are-but what am I?’ response to Tucker.

      I’d imagine Cruz’s AIPAC backers must have been in full cringe mode watching him flounder like a fish bouncing around on the deck after being brought up out of his depth.

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      1. Steve H.

        via Links on the 12th:

        >> In the book Codes of the Underworld: How Criminals Communicate, Italian political scientist Diego Gambetta talks about how in certain circumstances it is rational for subordinates (say, enforcers who are collecting extortion money from businesses) to display to their superiors how incompetent they are (at, for example, actually running a business). This is a display of loyalty

        Reply ↓
      2. Carolinian

        I still cringe at Carlson’s gee whiz style but he’s fighting the good fight here. Perhaps the rightwing populists will save Trump from himself. After all if he keeps defying popular opinion who will buy the Trumphone?

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        1. ChrisFromGA

          I have the feeling that Trump’s presidency is functionally over, already. President’s don’t resort to jingoism in foreign policy unless their domestic agenda is dead.

          And the BBPoS seems to be circling the drain:

          It Will Fail

          Reply ↓
          1. Wukchumni

            With Benedict Donald it’s always conjuring up a bigger story to defeat a failed one of his, and a MAGA megaton blast would make everybody forget all of his past trespasses into failure.

            Is he that craven enough to do it?

            …why certainly

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    2. Yves Smith Post author

      Wow this is scary but actually not surprising.

      Tucker is really good at staying cool (“Hey, I’m just trying to understand”) while taking these guys apart.

      Reply ↓
  15. The Rev Kev

    ‘Caolan
    @CaolanReports
    Ukraine did nothing to deserve this – Europe has learned zero lessons despite two world wars’

    I can think of fourteen thousand reasons why maybe the Ukraine did deserve it but when you get down to it, they are just the patsy. Though to be honest, the European powers were actual encouraging and helping them all along and never tried to stop them.

    Reply ↓
        1. ChrisFromGA

          I think they thought they knew who they were dealing with, but greatly overestimated their competence and ability.

          There is a certain tragic element to the Ukrainian people thinking that they would ever be part of the “club” i.e. the golden billion, when in fact, they were always disposable food for the gun. They’re going to end up a very tiny demographic group, probably extinct within a generation or two.

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  16. .human

    South Africa Built a Medical Research Powerhouse. Trump Cuts Have Demolished It.

    A corrollary to “If your business depends on a platform, you don’t have a business”: If your country depends on foreign entanglements, you do not have a country.

    Reply ↓
  17. FreeMarketApologist

    Re: “Lawmakers Demand Palantir Provide Information…”

    In a statement on Monday, the company said, “Palantir does not build surveillance technology, and we are not building a central database on Americans — nor will we.”

    Palantir specializes in finding patterns in data and presenting the information in ways that are easy to process and navigate.

    The second sentence provides the Times’ support of Palantir’s assertion by providing only a statement of technical activity, rather than a statement or analysis of intent. It’s a rather masterful sentence of evasion, and indicative of the Times’ lack of interest in actually doing investigative journalism.

    Reply ↓
  19. Revenant

    I am surprised nobody has commented about Mick Huckabee’s letter to Donald Trump, as US Ambassador to Israel.

    https://nitter.poast.org/MyLordBebo/status/1934970485151797338#m

    “Mr President, God spared you in Butler, PA to be the most consequential President in a century-maybe ever.

    The decisions on your shoulders I would not want to be made by anyone else. You have many voices speaking to you Sir, but there is only ONE voice that matters. HIS voice. I am your appointed servant in this land and am available for you but I do not try to get in your presence often because I trust your instincts.

    No President in my lifetime has been in a position like yours. Not since Truman in 1945. I don’t reach out to persuade you. Only to encourage you. I believe you will hear from heaven and that voice is far more important than mine or ANYONE else’s.

    You sent me to Israel to be your eyes, ears and voice and to make sure our flag flies above our embassy. My job is to be the last one to leave.

    I will not abandon this post. Our flag will NOT come down! You did not seek this moment.

    This moment sought YOU! It is my honor to serve you!

    Mike Huckabee”

    Reply ↓
  20. hemeantwell

    The Thomas Keith tweet explaining the erratic behavior of Israeli AD missiles is very interesting. If true, it suggests that, despite Iran and Russia having engaged in some collaboration on missile development (e.g. Shahed) Iran didn’t pass on that tech. I’ve never seen anything like that in the Ukraine conflict. Perhaps they wanted to maintain surprise, and did so with success.

    Tangenting, much of the linked commentary seems to assume that if the US heavily intervenes Iran will be eventually defeated. If this reflects an unstated Iraq analogy it must be recalled that Iraq was not in formal, and materially effective, alliances with two major powers. It is hard to believe that Russia and China would let Iran’s position erode to the point that its weapon stores will be looted for use against China. If we’re going to speculate about outcomes that dire, we should be engaging in parallel speculation about the possibility that Israel’s political order will break up due to the destruction Israel suffers (e.g. the desalinization plants), that there might be a coup, etc., and that Russia/China/Iran might aim for that resolution.

    Reply ↓
    1. ilsm

      Iraq was suppressed by airpower. 38 days of Desert Storm air attack, before the boots were loosed on Iraq.

      Bush’s invasion enjoyed 10 years of no fly zones suppressing Iraq in north and south sectors.

      Trump-Bibi air war will be more like years fighting the Houthi!

      US needs a big conscription to organize boots for Iran.

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    2. divadab

      If the US enters the fray, there are US targets all over the region. Notably, Bahrain, with 40,000 US personnel, which is only 60 miles from the Iranian coast. The Iranians have the ability to severely bomb US facilities with hypersonic technology, for which there is no effective air defense. Here’s a quite good summary of the timeline of the Israel-Iran conflict:

      https://youtu.be/26i9SwfqUt4?si=kdlSCXrzA9M4u0_C

      Reply ↓
  21. mrsyk

    Seeing reports that the Israelis have begun using their Iron Ray laser. From the Tass roundup,
    Israel used the Iron Ray laser air defense system to intercept Iranian missiles and drones for the first time in combat conditions, a representative of the Israeli embassy in Moscow told TASS.

    Reply ↓
    2. .human

      One of the main problems considered during the vomitus roll-out of Star Wars defense systems decades ago, was that a simple spiraling of a missle disipated any directed energy. Nevermind the amount of energy required.

      Reply ↓
  22. Wukchumni

    The Dark Side of China’s Gold Frenzy

    As the price of gold soared, Julie Li thought her investment in the precious metal was the smartest decision she had ever made. Across China, many like her have poured their savings into gold, lured by companies promising hefty returns far into the future.

    About a year ago, Ms. Li invested about $35,000 in gold bars through Yongkun Gold, a company that runs an online platform and dozens of jewelry shops in eastern China. The investments performed so well that she used a credit card to put in $20,000 more.

    Last month, Ms. Li and thousands of other Yongkun Gold investors were supposed to receive a payout from their accounts. Instead, the company halted all withdrawals and shuttered its shops. Its headquarters in the eastern Chinese city of Hangzhou closed, and the company stopped responding to calls and messages.

    “That’s all my savings,” said Ms. Li, 28, who works as a customer service agent in China’s southwestern Sichuan Province. “The salesperson kept telling me that gold prices will keep rising.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/18/business/china-gold.html
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Compare the photo in the article to Cartier-Bresson’s famous photo from 1948…

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_Rush,_Shanghai

    Reply ↓
    1. The Rev Kev

      Wasn’t there a saying in the US during the Great Depression that if you can’t hold it, you don’t own it? Years ago I read of the same scam being done in New Zealand. One guy purchased gold but insisted that he take it with him, which he was within his rights to do, though they were very ratty about it. Several months later this company went bankrupt and all those people who thought that they owned gold found they had nothing. If you can’t hold it, you don’t own it.

      Reply ↓
  23. The Rev Kev

    “Trump Ups Pressure on Iran, Fueling Fears US Will Join Conflict”

    ‘The president told reporters that he “may” send a high-level official such as Steven Witkoff, his special envoy for the Middle East, or Vice President JD Vance to meet with Iran, adding that “it depends what happens when I get back.” ‘

    What would be the point? What could Witkoff and Vance possibly offer Iran to make them quit. Their boss has shown again and again that whether he is dealing with Russia or China or themselves he is not to be trusted and is devious in what he tells countries. He might make an initial agreement with Iran but would renege and make further demands to be added to that agreement, ones that Israel would add. In any negotiations, you would never know too if he was helping Israel prepare a further attack while he distracts Iran with any negotiations. Russia doesn’t trust Trump. China doesn’t trust Trump. So why should Iran? It would be pointless and there would have to be iron-clad guarantees in any agreement if one was reached but which would never be offered. Right now he is demanding Unconditional Surrender which is the same demand that was made of the Axis powers back in WW2. But this is not WW2 anymore and the US may not have the equipment and men for a very long term campaign. I’m guessing that he will take a leaf from the Israeli playbook. He will make a short sharp attack on Iran and tell them that if they retaliate, he will hit them even harder. Standard bully tactic. But for Iran, there are so many US bases in the region that it would be a target-rich environment.

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      1. hemeantwell

        A big question for me right now is how much should we should be encouraged by evidence that antiwar magas are in revolt, as in Dave Smith’s Breaking Points impeachment call, or Carlson’s strong dissent, the steady stream of articles at the American Conservative, Larry Johnson’s blasts, etc. If Trump is still staring at the tv does he see this? How does it mesh with dissent from capital and from the military? In any event I really appreciate how NC allows us to keep tabs on developing fractures.

        Reply ↓
      2. Unironic Pangloss

        the split is along generational lines—just like Israel support among Democrats. Boomer and over = much higher probability versus 50 or younger.

        The anti-war college protestors grew up to be “bomb, bomb Iran” retirees. (NC crowd is the exception that proves the rule)

        Reply ↓
  24. Adam1

    Tariffs… I stopped by the local supermarket yesterday evening to grab a couple items and I was floored by the number of items that were out of stock. I had flashbacks from the pandemic supply chain days.

    This could be a one-off situation, or it could be a sign that packaging materials are in short supply and therefore items are not getting shipped to grocers. I also want to note that the shelves were mostly well faced so it likely isn’t a staffing issue with supplies waiting on trucks and this store is within 5 miles of the corporate HQ and distribution warehouse. Meat and produce were well stocked, it was only the packaged goods on the shelves that had many empty sections throughout the store.

    Reply ↓
    2. amfortas the hippie

      cousin took me to walmart the other day(we were in brady anyways, and theres little other choice, there).
      and the entire clothing section was almost stripped bare…all the racks were gone, and a few pallets of things like lawn furniture on sale in their place.
      it was kinda weird.

      Reply ↓
  25. vao

    Regarding China’s AI system builds Intel-class chips with zero US software: this is interesting, but at present just a curiosity. If the article is accurate, the kind of chips that the QiMeng system designed correspond to an ARM Cortex A53 (a design from 2012) and an Intel 486 (a design from the 1990s).

    This seems to confirm what has already been observed by many people, and that was rigorously analysed in a recent research paper from Apple: those newfangled LLM/AI systems are able to provide a solid output only when dealing with well-known problems, for which thoroughly documented, complete solutions exist. Otherwise, they are lost.

    It is always interesting to look at history — even in technological domains. In the late 1980s, DEC (remember it?) used AI, in the form of an expert system called SID, to design the processor of its new range of VAX-9000 computers based on ECL technology. This was a very successful endeavour: the work was completed well in advance, and design bugs were very few and quickly eliminated.

    The system SID was never used again. Its 1000 handwritten rules, and the hundreds of thousands of rules automatically derived from them, were bound to the ECL chip technology, which was supplanted by CMOS in the 1990s. By that time, DEC had not yet formalized enough expert knowledge on CMOS, and no longer had the budget to recast SID for a new technological basis.

    Just like expert systems of yesteryear, it looks as if LLM will be condemned to lag technological development.

    Reply ↓
  26. Wukchumni

    Helen Lewis on The Genius Myth Yascha Mounk
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Everybody acknowledges that Brian Wilson was a musical genius, and his efforts were aimed at sharing his gift with all of us, no articles I read after his passing talked of his great wealth, it wasn’t that important to him in the scheme of things it seemed, which was a very 60’s ethos…

    And so it went with Shakespeare, Mozart, the Beatles, et al, nobody talks about their ability to hoard wealth in terms of greatness, it was a sharing economy they thrived on~

    Reply ↓
  28. The Rev Kev

    “Stanford Research Finds That “Therapist” Chatbots Are Encouraging Users’ Schizophrenic Delusions and Suicidal Thoughts”

    Using a Chatbot as a therapist can be recklessly dangerous. I read recently that some were Chatbots were encouraging some people with mental illnesses to abandon their meds. And as it turns out, this article was also published in Futurism-

    https://futurism.com/chatgpt-mental-illness-medications

    Reply ↓
  29. MaryLand

    I was able to come home from a skilled nursing facility today after being there a week. Last night I couldn’t get to sleep until close to 3 am. Neither could my roommate— we had both slept well previously. The nurse came in at 2:20 and said everyone was still awake tonight. It’s a small facility. All of the patients are elderly. Most don’t use a phone. Most have dementia. If they watch tv it’s game shows not the news. So it’s not like they were stressed from the news. A disturbance in the force? Or like when animals can predict earthquakes? Hug your loved ones. Tell them you love them. I understand if this post is not allowed.

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  30. Wukchumni

    I’m sure that all those 5,000 or so high stone steps on the Inca Trail headed towards Dead Woman’s Pass and beyond in Peru didn’t help my cause, and I think my 10,000 mile warranty was nearing, then I got home and tried to hike in Mineral King and found out that it hurts to go downhill, so a doctor’s appointment was needed and the x-rays show that I’ve not got a lot of anything left between the bones in the kneecap of my right knee on account of osteoarthritis.

    Until most recently i’d lived a charmed life in terms of my pins, but that was then and this is now…

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  31. tegnost

    leonhart…
    And honestly, it should be an important question even for many moderates and conservatives because, at this point, the Republican Party is increasingly authoritarian and so if you believe in democracy at this point, we have only one party that is clearly pro-democracy.

    The patriot act is a bipartisan affair.
    Pro democracy democrats my eye.
    Bleepity bleeping bleepity bleepers…
    the sociologist does try…but I don’t think any light gets through to david
    but
    ” Now he gives no credit to Joe Biden for giving 75 percent of billions of dollars of government funds to red states to build battery factories and solar panels, but that’s an issue he cares about. ”

    because red states have cheap labor

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