Links 6/18/2025

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216 comments

1. Antifa June 18, 2025 at 7:01 am

   Israel
   (melody borrowed from The Star Spangled Banner written by Francis Scott Key in 1814)

   Israel can now see in the Arab sunlight
   That their sneak attack failed, and they’re in for a reaming
   Hiding bombs inside cars, sending drones in the night,
   This was thoroughly botched—viral vids are now streaming
   Netanyahu can glare and deliver hot air
   But when you pick a fight then you oughta fight fair
   Let your citizens leave, they were never that brave
   They’re all voting with their feet, and there’s not much to save

   Let the nations convene; they have treaties to keep
   Your economy’s toast; trade your guns in for roses
   No more checking ID’s, no more uniformed sheep,
   Where the olive tree grows we are not ruled by Moses
   Keep your Zionist dream; keep your murderous scheme
   Palestine’s disinfected, it’s your turn to scream
   Take your noise and your clamor across the ocean waves
   You can make Old Europe free if you’ll all just behave
   1. ex-PFC Chuck June 18, 2025 at 8:37 am

      I salute you!
   2. mrsyk June 18, 2025 at 4:36 pm

      . Take your noise and your clamor across the ocean waves
      To the US no doubt. If I had any agency, I’d say “no thanks”.

      This one’s a keeper, thank you
2. Unironic Pangloss June 18, 2025 at 7:20 am

   >>> dependence weakens the writer’s own neural and linguistic fingerprints

   There is linguistics-semantics “uncanny valley” from LLM-generated prose…like in the film “They Live” once you see the word formulas, grade level, and faux genteel-nees used by LLM, you can’t unsee it. I sticks out like a sore thumb and is a burden to read

   I hate it, lol. And bet colloquial lanbuage will coverge towards AI-speak within 10 years, especially as kids and “elites” drive language
   1. Kristiina June 18, 2025 at 7:58 am

      Agree abou the llm text. To me, it resembles the language and worldview of those magazines that used to be in aeroplanes. Those have largely disappeared but the vacuousness is now everywhere. To me the scary thing is that there are many people who really think& speak/write like llm. Sort of like marketing lingo without punchline. Don’t know if swimming in those waters will be healthy.
      1. mrsyk June 18, 2025 at 8:51 am

         to build something like a word-engine, a syntax-centrifuge
         Garrick Davis
      2. JMH June 18, 2025 at 9:42 am

         How long before language regresses to the level of 1984’s NewSpeak? Even without LLM’s the complexity of language in general use is declining. Well, what the heck, no one can tell the difference and I need a nap or a game or something.
      3. Grateful Dude June 18, 2025 at 9:52 am

         And when the LLMs are trained on journalism or comments thereof it’s just a disaster.

         I think public and journalistic language has deteriorated a lot since I was educated. What I call journalese is a contagious disorder. Some writers are immune and use language well, but I see a lot of preposition abuse and overuse of passive constructions, the former a symptom of contagion in general, and the latter of an unwillingness to commit as a writer to what is being written. Both contribute to ambiguity in general and weaken semantics throughout.

         Examples include the use of “in advance of” instead of “before”, now universal, and “around” instead of “about”: “before” and “about” are about lost anymore. Then there’s “post” instead of “after”; just horrible. “post” is already seriously overloaded: fence post, post up (basketball), post office, job post, etc.

         On passive constructions, a simple example is “that is indicative of a bad attitude”. How about “that indicates a bad attitude” instead: assertive, active, and transitive. I call it the “ive-of” syndrome. It’s a plague.

         I used to edit technical white papers at work, a nightmare of bad writing, so I’ve seen it all. Tech writing cannot be creative. Journalism should be clever, but it isn’t literature and ambiguity is the enemy of clarity.

         And curiously, here at NC I see a lot of compound nouns broken into their noun component words. That often changes the grammar of the sentence as in “what is the subject here?”: “They were playing base ball”. And please stop using nouns as adverbs, which has been common ever since we “self quarantined” ourselves. At least use a hyphen. And, I cringe at an infinitive split by a noun-adverb.

         OMG, and “tons” of anything abstract or weightless. I get it, but it isn’t funny anymore.
         1. amateur linguist June 18, 2025 at 1:06 pm

            As far as deterioration in public language is concerned, rather than the use or avoidance of certain adverbs or infinitive splitting (of all things), one might consider the secular declines in sentence length and clausal embedding to be more striking and perhaps less fickle indicators.

            The specific constructs you criticize remind me of Strunk and White’s The Elements of Style, which is (in multiple senses) awfully prescriptive. Now, if you’re going to be so prescriptive, you might as well have read up on the passive, because “that is indicative of a bad attitude” is not a passive construction.
            1. lyman alpha blob June 18, 2025 at 4:10 pm

               A Dictionary of Modern American Usage, a reference I first learned about in this review by David Foster Wallace, really is quite an hoot.

               This conversation brings to mind the clever reply attributed to Winston Churchill after being chastised by an interlocutor for ending a sentence with a preposition, which was “You are the type of person up with whom I shall not put!”.
         2. Wukchumni June 18, 2025 at 2:02 pm

            I appreciate that words that tend to have so many different meanings, as it allows me to be even more cryptic than usual when composing…

            Worders of the World, Unite!
            1. ambrit June 18, 2025 at 4:48 pm

               Be thou prolix and inhabit the web dear Wuk!
               Imagine my dismay when I was finally convinced that the Santa Clause was false! There ain’t no free lunch! my interlocuters declaimed. Thus was another dear childhood belief subverted. Later I learned that, above a certain financial threshold, the Santa Clause was indeed operative. When you have too much, you can usually lie, cheat, and steal from those beneath you in the social hierarchy with impunity.
               Stay safe up there in the Defensible Position.
         3. Fritz June 18, 2025 at 10:37 pm

            Every Sunday there is an online site called “exile in happy valley” and the author of that site routinely mixes up “affect” with “effect” & “then” and “than”. And vice versa. Almost every posting for years uses those terms incorrectly. When it used to have a comments’ section I never expressed the incorrectness of the usage because habit as William James said never rests.
      4. Random June 18, 2025 at 10:09 am

         The fact that LLMs generate text in that style means that a lot of training data in that same style was used to train them.
         So a lot of people who speak/write like that already existed before LLMs.
         1. Revenant June 18, 2025 at 10:24 am

            Maybe. But if there is some sort of average / “energy” minimisation technique in the LLM steps, you could imagine that the LLM arrives at the style because it represents the common minimla set of styles, whereas real people may write with a higher energy in at least one dimension (vocabulary or syntax or grammar etc). The LLM picks a style that is stripped down in all aspects.

            There is also the “fawning” aspect of LLM’s. The algorithm succeeds if it pleases the largest audience so there is a least-common-denominator tendency in its style. You could imagine an LLM with a style so spare that it becomes modernist literature (or a parody of Hemingway or Pinter) but this would be rejected in favour of something with all the sharp edges filed off….
            1. Unironic Pangloss June 18, 2025 at 11:45 am

               absolutely—-LLM is like a distillery concentrating the “best” aspects of its training set
   2. Ben Panga June 18, 2025 at 9:04 am

      I now have a violent internal reaction to texts/docs containing “It’s not xxxx. Instead, it’s yyy and zzz!” among others
   3. Skip Intro June 18, 2025 at 10:53 am

      You have an interesting theory about colloquial language converging to LLM-speak. It mirrors the process of model collapse where they lose diversity and converge on a narrow set of outputs. If novel human writing also converges towards this narrowed field, it dooms LLMs to model collapse even when fed on pure human writing. Further, it predicts that model collapse is contagious to humans. So like the low background steel and pre-LLM language databases, human writers not exposed to AI output will become a critical vestigial resource.
      Thanks again NC, for making our brains more valuable!
      1. Unironic Pangloss June 18, 2025 at 1:26 pm

         cultural mimicry happens all the time. IMO, a good analogy is non-US TV from non-English native speakers who deliver news in English.

         The (let’s say) Japanese anchors don’t know that they are trying to come across as the 11pm Action 10 News team from Columbus, OH (some poorly, some very well).

         They don’t know why they are supposed to sound like a US Midwest native, but that’s the generally accepted convention…because that’s how it’s done at the cultural hegemon (District 9, USA).
   4. Ignacio June 18, 2025 at 11:04 am

      The only problem that NC has when forbidding AI is that you find comments by some “Ignacio”, and may be others, whose English writing skills are close to criminal. Criminal but original.
      1. Art Vandalay June 18, 2025 at 12:25 pm

         By your originality shall we know you to be the real Ignacio . . . whose comments and perspective have been a huge contribution to this community.
      2. Wukchumni June 18, 2025 at 2:03 pm

         You can’t spell Ignacio without using AII
   5. Jason Boxman June 18, 2025 at 12:15 pm

      Worth noting that many of the participants in the study were surely infected by COVID at least once by now, and we know it causes brain damage.

      What medical research conducted since 2020 is ever entirely valid, anymore?
   6. IM Doc June 18, 2025 at 12:43 pm

      I have noted the AI speak in all kinds of student’s write-ups. When you see it, it cannot be unseen. They literally paste and copy from the AI all the time.

      What is even more concerning – and I mean deeply concerning is the hallucinating and making stuff up that AI does that then somehow gets into the papers.

      This month’s best example so far – We are discussing the Dorothy Parker story “Lady with a Lamp” from the early 1930s. It is an extremely important work to ponder for young students because it is discussing how a clinician and even a friend deals with a young woman who has just had an abortion. And how their own judgements and priors come out in the dialog.

      I was handed the following page in one of the write ups – basically a list of all of Dorothy Parker’s important short stories – this was part of the student’s report………

      ________________________________

      “Big Blonde” (February 16, 1929)
      Widely regarded as Parker’s masterpiece, this story won the O. Henry Award for the best short story of 1929. It follows Hazel Morse, a woman trapped in a cycle of fleeting relationships and alcoholism, offering a poignant critique of gender roles and societal expectations. Its emotional depth and sharp prose make it a standout.

      “A Telephone Call” (January 7, 1938)
      A stream-of-consciousness monologue capturing a woman’s anxious wait for a lover’s call, this story is a brilliant exploration of insecurity and romantic obsession. Its raw, conversational style resonates with readers for its universal emotional truth.

      “Here We Are” (March 29, 1929)
      A darkly humorous depiction of a newlywed couple’s train ride, where bickering reveals their underlying tensions. Parker’s dialogue crackles with wit, exposing the fragility of relationships with her signature irony.

      “The Lovely Leave” (October 16, 1941)
      A later story that examines a woman’s loneliness while her soldier husband is briefly home on leave during World War II. Its understated melancholy and sharp observation of domestic strain showcase Parker’s ability to blend humor with pathos.

      “Lady with a Lamp” (March 14, 1931)
      A satirical take on superficial sympathy, this story features a woman visiting a sick friend while barely concealing her self-interest. Parker’s biting humor skewers social hypocrisy, making it a classic example of her style.

      __________________________________

      Earlier in the report, it is discussed by the student that these dates were the dates that these stories were published in “The New Yorker”. First of all, the AI language is clearly obvious in these citations.

      But the kicker – I actually went and looked this up –
      I have a DVD set of the entire publication history of The New Yorker up to 2000.

      NOT ONE of these references is correct or will guide you to the discussed story. NOT ONE. Even more concerning, 3 of these stories were not even published in The New Yorker. They were in Harper’s Bazaar or other publications. It is possible as has happened before on previous papers, that the AI completely made this up – made up stories, etc – I have had that happen before several times – I do not know Parker’s work well enough – but I can find out.

      As a teacher – this is obvious laziness. But it is now also universal. I do not even know what to say to the students I am so embarrassed for them. But they seem to show no shame at all.

      I have grave concern for where this is all leading.
      1. Jason Boxman June 18, 2025 at 1:35 pm

         Perhaps instead of practicing medicine they all intend to become economists?
      2. Acacia June 18, 2025 at 6:51 pm

         I do not even know what to say to the students I am so embarrassed for them.

         Doc, if I may pipe up, there was some discussion of this here at NC just yesterday, and in my experience (teaching writing for many years now) the only way to mitigate this is to set out a firm policy on day 1 that no work from AI will be acceptable, including use for drafts or “brainstorming” or “fixing my English”, etc.

         You may have done this and there are still people trying to cheat. It happens and it’s indeed frustrating. Many schools are not taking a position on this issue and so there are students who somehow think it is OK.

         What I tell my students now is that these writing exercises are an opportunity for them to learn something, but it won’t happen if they use some app, and they are taking a gamble with their future career prospects, i.e., there is no reason for an employer to hire or keep them if all they really know how to do is copy and paste with ChatGPT.

         Yesterday also there was an interesting bit of research shared in the NC links:

         Your Brain on ChatGPT: Accumulation of Cognitive Debt when Using an AI Assistant for Essay Writing Task
         https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.08872

         There is still much we don’t know about this, but the current trajectory looks quite bad.
3. The Rev Kev June 18, 2025 at 7:22 am

   “China sends mystery transport planes into Iran”

   ‘Getting involved directly in the Iran-Israel conflict could torpedo any change China has to stabilise its relations with the US, Israel’s strongest ally. Beijing is still reeling from a high-stakes trade war with Washington.’

   That’s funny that. As if China does not know that if Iran falls, that they are next on the menu. There is zero chance of stabilizing any relationship with the Trump regime as his Cabinet is full of China hawks who are raring to go after them. For at least the next three and a half years there will be attacks on them, their allies, their belts and roads initiative and Chinese in general anywhere in the world. And they make out that China was the one ‘still reeling from a high-stakes trade war with Washington.’ Seriously? So far as I know, nobody is calling President Xi by the nickname XACO Xi.
   1. ex-PFC Chuck June 18, 2025 at 8:47 am

      If when operation F*** Iran starts to go pear shaped I expect China to make Taiwan an offer it would be stupid to reject.
   2. Mikel June 18, 2025 at 9:38 am

      How long before the officials start calling Iran “China’s proxy” or something to that effect?
      1. JMH June 18, 2025 at 9:58 am

         Let’s see. The US government, those under the spell DC Bubble and Echo Chamber, supports genocide in Gaza. Now the US government,those under the spell DC Bubble and Echo Chamber, supports aggression against Iran. Is the next step to be direct aggression by those under the spell of the DC Bubble and Echo Chamber to be direct and open US aggression against Iran. I suppose so as that would be in line with the goal of weakening Iran, overthrowing its current government, because that pleases Bibi and Miriam and Lindsay et al and strikes a blow at Russia and opens the way to get at China, and like the Brain … you know the old cartoon, Pinky and the Brain … Brain’s goal was world domination … like the neocons … do you suppose Brain was a satirical slap at the neocons. Anyway, good luck, all your assumptions about Iran collapsing, running out of missiles , and so on and so forth … your script writes need a creativity boost and the playbook could use an update. But sarcasm has its limits so I shall stop.
         1. Mikel June 18, 2025 at 11:13 am

            “How long before the officials start calling…”
            I’m saying how the officials think. Not myself.
   3. Polar Socialist June 18, 2025 at 11:52 am

      The funniest thing is that USA providing Israel with weapons, ISTAR, fuel, money, and participating in the actual missile defense is not being “directly involved” but China possibly selling some military equipment to Iran is. But I guess them’s the rules.
4. Wukchumni June 18, 2025 at 7:24 am

   It’s The Most Blunderful Time Of The Year
   With the IDF pounding Persian decoy surroundings
   And everyone telling you things are not as they appear
   It’s The Most Blunderful Time Of The Year
   It’s the unhap—unhappiest season of all
   With those drone greetings and missile meetings
   When push meets shove comes to call
   It’s the unhap—unhappiest season of all
   There’ll be scapegoats for hosting
   Civilians for toasting
   And carrying out of the show
   There’ll be scary Iran stories
   And tales of the glories of
   1967 long, long ago
   It’s The Most Blunderful Time Of The Year
   There’ll be much missiles going
   And corpses will be glowing
   When loved ones are near
   It’s The Most Blunderful Time Of The Year!
5. ChrisFromGA June 18, 2025 at 7:28 am

   Trump is an utterly despicable human being. Threatening the religious leader of Iran is the sort of thing you would expect from a mob boss. Does his cretin-sized IQ understand that this man is a spiritual symbol for millions of Iranians? Has Kim Jong-un threatened to kill the Pope?
   1. The Rev Kev June 18, 2025 at 7:37 am

      I really don’t think that he understands the significance of what he actually said and it’s consequences. I would say that he said it because he figured that it would give him leverage against the Iranians by threatening to kill their spiritual leader. Like how in his first term he threatened to destroy all of Iran’s historic and cultural buildings. It’s all about getting leverage over other people and make them do what he wants. You know. Just like a mob boss as you said.
      1. ChrisFromGA June 18, 2025 at 7:51 am

         It’s also really, really, stupid. If regime change is the goal, he just insulted the spiritual leader of the nation he’s trying to convince to overthrow.

         The man’s hubris is practically begging for a Greek Tragic ending. I think that the Universe will deliver.

         As an aside, I am starting to pick up on max hubris coming out of the media in terms of overestimating the effectiveness of the IDF’s initial raids and damage to Iran. It reminds me of the beginning of the SMO in Ukraine – for a few weeks in early March, 2022, everyone (including pundits like Ritter) thought that the Russians were going to win a quick knock-out victory. Kiev was surrounded by a force that we now realize was far too small to achieve a military objective of taking the city. It was a feint. But here we are over three years later and the war is still going.

         Likewise, I believe that even if Netanyahu lures the foolish Orange Julius into bombing the nuclear facility in Iran, putting American soldiers in harms way, it won’t win the war, and the Iranians will dig in and prepare for a long war, supplied by China and Iran.
         1. ChrisFromGA June 18, 2025 at 8:04 am

            Brain freeze – meant “China and Russia.”
         2. Late Introvert June 18, 2025 at 3:27 pm

            At least Reuters shows some actual photos of Israel. Amazing.

            https://www.reuters.com/pictures/photos-irans-missile-attacks-israel-2025-06-18/

            I saw it next to the No Kings photos, pretty clever stuff.
   2. Colonel Smithers June 18, 2025 at 7:37 am

      Thank you and well said, Chris.

      May I add that the vassals / poodles have said nothing to distance themselves from this idiocy.

      Having worked with US executives, I marvelled at how transactional, ignorant, vulgar and brash so many, if not most, were. Trump is typical.

      This may explain why, back in the day, the Trump family was ostracised by the NYC business establishment, but the composition of the US business elite has changed over recent decades.
      1. Michaelmas June 18, 2025 at 9:17 am

         Colonel S.:Having worked with US executives, I marvelled at how transactional, ignorant, vulgar and brash so many, if not most, were. Trump is typical.

         Seconded.
         1. mrsyk June 18, 2025 at 9:53 am

            Add “financial sector” to “US” and I can confirm similar observations.
            1. Colonel Smithers June 18, 2025 at 9:55 am

               Thank you.

               My experience is largely of Big Finance types, but I have met some industrialists.
         2. Colonel Smithers June 18, 2025 at 9:53 am

            Thank you, M.

            As America declines, I imagine fewer and fewer people will mind their language about US politicians, officials and business executives. There’s a lot of resentment built up over decades.

            I’m a lifelong racing enthusiast and working from home this week, so have Ascot on. As my parents and I watched the royal procession up the straight, we noticed the Saudi princes in the king’s carriage yesterday and today, and wondered if Trump and his moll would ever be invited.
            1. The Rev Kev June 18, 2025 at 10:25 am

               Only if they were allowed to roll up in a Monster Truck flying the star spangled banner. :)
            2. Wukchumni June 18, 2025 at 10:53 am

               Colonel,

               I never think of Trump being involved in any capacity in the Sport of Kings, kind of similar to him not being a skier, even though his first wife was on the Czech junior national ski team~

               Many ‘oval offices’ in the USA have a grass infield, and if you could convince Ascot to put in an 18 hole course, that might be magnetic to him?
               1. Colonel Smithers June 18, 2025 at 12:47 pm

                  Thank you.

                  There’s small course in the in field. I can’t imagine it’s even 9 holes.

                  There are some courses nearby.

                  Enjoy the feast.
               2. Bugs June 18, 2025 at 12:49 pm

                  The idiot in charge’s sports are golf and tennis. What you play when your Dad tells you to come to the club to fill out a foursome or doubles match and moreover “you’ll have nothing and like it!”
      2. Unironic Pangloss June 18, 2025 at 11:44 am

         >>>>Having worked with US executives, I marvelled at how transactional, ignorant, vulgar and brash so many, if not most, were. Trump is typical.

         Try using the same floor bathroom. At an old firm of mine, there was this one very senior person who loved to mark up documents while on the commode.

         Glad I wasn’t his underling, lol!
         1. Colonel Smithers June 18, 2025 at 12:49 pm

            Thank you. WTF?!
   3. ilsm June 18, 2025 at 9:16 am

      The top Ayatollah is not Diem, and his Mullahs are not like Diem’s family.

      Will Trump’s budding air war be any better than his effete tryst over Yemen, or going “downtown over Hanoi”?

      Trump-Bibi mind is concerning how about the 25 Amendment?
6. Colonel Smithers June 18, 2025 at 7:29 am

   Thank you, Yves.

   Further to the links about MI6 and Canuckistan, please let me recount a chat with dad yesterday night.

   Some readers may recall my mentions of dad working in Saudi Arabia.

   I mentioned the new head of MI6, Blaise Metreveli. That sparked an anecdote. Dad worked in / from Riyadh from late 1992 to early 2015, including at the Armed Forces Hospital. Some years before his arrival, a Metreveli ran and taught radiology there and around the region, not just the kingdom. The professor returned from Hong Kong and London from time to time to lecture in the 1990s and noughties.

   Before the radiologist introduced himself, dad thought he may be of Italian origin. He said he was of Ukrainian origin. However, veterans / older colleagues in Riyadh also remembered him as using the surname Borkovski and saying he was of Polish origin.

   That professor appears to be the father of the chief spook.

   It’s interesting that Yves mentions an organisation in decline when a woman is appointed or runs. That was said a few weeks ago with regard to Kemi Badenoch and the Tories. The glass cliff was used to describe.
   1. Revenant June 18, 2025 at 8:52 am

      Aye, good to have this confirmed from personal history. It matches the Lord Bebo post.

      “She’s not British (or Georgian as her last name) by origin, she’s from Hong Kong. Her dad, after serving in the British army, was head of the radiology department at the local university, CUHK – here’s a mention in his scientific papers, for example.

      And he’s not Metreveli, he’s Konstantin Dobrovolsky, the naturalization record is available, page 9354, the very top. Before naturalization, her ancestors had a Nansen passport, which they received for taking valuables out of the USSR.

      In general, it’s very clear who and against whom they will work, according to tradition. Congratulations on your appointment, Bella Konstantinovna Dobrovolskaya.”

      https://nitter.poast.org/MyLordBebo/status/1934692730262741274#m

      It is worrying that she has Ukrainian antecedents rather than Russian. It suggests the UK is going the way of the Vindmans, Nulands and Freelands. As I wrote before, when you know the background and you look at her photograph, shes a beautiful killer Natasha….
      1. Colonel Smithers June 18, 2025 at 10:01 am

         Thank you, R.

         At the time, dad wondered why the use of different names. This said, it was not unknown in Saudi Arabia, but usually by people with many Arab / Muslim names.

         Dad and I are surfing between Queen’s and Ascot. I just asked him. He’s clear that the professor used Metreveli and Borkovski. When I first heard Borkovski, I thought of the Bulgarian branch of the Saxe-Coburg tribe.

         I hope you are hale and following Kneecap’s appearance at court. I have asked my significant other to see them at Glasto next week.

         I agree. Nijinsky is attractive. I have come across them in the City. That’s what we older City types call them. Natasha is the name given to sex workers from the former USSR in the middle east.
         1. Revenant June 18, 2025 at 10:38 am

            I was planning to attend the court and travelled into London but then had to turn around for domestic reasons. I’ll post some links of proceedings. It was a good turnout!

            Definitely see them at Glasto! And the rest of you can watch them on iPlayer!
            1. Colonel Smithers June 18, 2025 at 12:53 pm

               Thank you. I noticed on the news.
      2. RW June 27, 2025 at 1:54 pm

         Today on the BBC website

         https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0l406gpydgo

         Sourced from the Daily Mail
         https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14851451/grandfather-new-head-MI6-Nazi-spy-chief.html

         The UK version of the Vindmans, Nulands and Freelands. Why should the original Empire be left out when the Commonwealth has its representatives?

         But it’s all fine because Blaise never knew her grandfather. /sarc

         Also, all should be reassured because the next generation are similarly brilliant – her own children rumbled that she worked for MI6 and “confronted” her, as reported in the Telegraph

         https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/03/exclusive-meet-director-k-mi5-spy-responsible-keeping-britain/
   2. Yves Smith Post authorJune 18, 2025 at 10:17 am

      I would say “small world” except Colonel Smithers seems to know first or second hand all the people that count in the UK.
      1. Revenant June 18, 2025 at 10:30 am

         LOL! But that is because the people who count in the UK are a small world.

         There are about 200,000 living Oxbridge graduates and they all know each other and all the rest of the people worth knowing in the UK. It’s the National Sorting Hat. No social circle is safe from an Oxbridge graduate turning up in it and trying to co-opt it.

         If you include the great public schools (under 100,000 alumni, many of whom overlap with the Oxbridge set), you’ve covered everything from junkies and journalists to judges and jockeys.
         1. Colonel Smithers June 18, 2025 at 12:57 pm

            Thank you, both.

            That makes it easier.

            Redlife2017 and I often joke of mapping them.
         2. Colonel Smithers June 18, 2025 at 1:03 pm

            Thank you.

            It’s great to see Brough Scott, Oxford, journalist and former amateur jockey, trying to keep ITV’s racing coverage sensible.

            Colonel Smithers, Old Stoic.
      2. vao June 18, 2025 at 11:32 am

         “Colonel Smithers seems to know first or second hand all the people that count in the UK.”

         And their genealogy too!
         1. Colonel Smithers June 18, 2025 at 12:58 pm

            Thank you.

            Plus their source of wealth.
            1. ambrit June 18, 2025 at 4:55 pm

               “Plus their source of wealth.”
               You’re a criminologist too! Brilliant!
               (Stay safer than houses.)
               1. Colonel Smithers June 18, 2025 at 6:31 pm

                  Thank you, Ambrit.

                  I hope P and you are ok.

                  We are basking in the sunshine for Ascot. I’m going on Friday and Saturday.
                  1. ambrit June 19, 2025 at 4:36 am

                     Enjoy!
7. Wukchumni June 18, 2025 at 7:48 am

   Do you hear what I hear?
   Said the Gaza sufferers to the little fattened lamb
   Do you see what I see? (Do you see what I see?)
   Way up in the sky, little fattened lamb
   Do you see what I see? (Do you see what I see?)
   A rocket, a rocket, dancing in the night
   With a tail as big as a kite
   With a tail as big as a kite

   Said the Gaza boy to the little fattened lamb
   Do you hear what I hear? (Do you hear what I hear?)
   Ringing through the sky, and on Tel Aviv will land
   Do you hear what I hear? (Do you hear what I hear?)
   An airstrike, an airstrike high above the trees
   With an impact you will soon see
   With an impact you will soon see

   Said the Gaza boy to the David king
   Do you know what I know? (Do you know what I know?)
   In your Knesset warm, David king
   Do you know what I know? (Do you know what I know?)
   A child, a Gaza child expires before getting old
   Let the Zionists bring him out of the fold
   Let the Zionists bring him out of the fold
   Said the David king to all the right people everywhere
   Listen to what I say! (Listen to what I say!)
   Pray for peace, people, everywhere
   Listen to what I say! (Listen to what I say!)
   The IDF, the IDF sweeping in the night
   It will bring us goodness through might
   It will bring us goodness through might
8. The Rev Kev June 18, 2025 at 7:51 am

   “The four US states where psychopaths are most likely to live… are YOU living near one?”

   Of course Washington DC should be at the top of this list but that place is a District and not a State. Maybe a better way is to measure the density of psychopaths is by population instead.
   1. TomDority June 18, 2025 at 9:17 am

      Maybe, instead of where psychopaths are most likely to live….the study should determine at what profesions psychopaths are making a living.
      Like some pedos are attracted to the boy scouts or churches for the access is provides.
   2. Acacia June 18, 2025 at 11:29 am

      California didn’t(!) make the list.
      1. juno mas June 18, 2025 at 11:34 pm

         Well, Cali is next door to the Silver State and with 40M residents able to readily travel to Las Vegas it’s no surprise that a state with 2M residents and gambling tourism (and near naked women) would be linked to psycopaths.
9. Adam1 June 18, 2025 at 7:59 am

   “…we need to get better at spotting and exposing people who exploit human cooperation for personal gain…”

   I think Fortune publishes a list every year.
   1. jefemt June 18, 2025 at 9:10 am

      That needs the coffee warning.

      Is there an emoji for that? Sort of like the number of chilis next to a spicy entree on a menu?
   2. Anonymous June 18, 2025 at 10:37 am

      With the rise in narcissism, people who exploit human cooperation for personal gain seem to be quite common -not just those listed in Fortune. It’s a sad state of affairs when doing to others as you would have them do to you has become a recipe for being taken advantage of. Spotting these ungrateful grifters is a basic survival skill in our modern world.
      1. ArvidMartensen June 18, 2025 at 8:57 pm

         The best ones have made an artform of escaping detection. So it’s not that easy.
         And if they go to therapy under pressure, they just learn more tips how to fool people better. How to look empathic. How to say the right things.

         Our society seems to be breeding them like flies these days.
10. Unironic Pangloss June 18, 2025 at 8:02 am

    In the Twitter OSINT rabbit hole, 45% of Twitter creators harvests content from the other half.

    if you want more signal and less noise (and don’t speak Farsi, Arabic, Hebrew), check out…

    https://x.com/irnaenglish (Iran News Agency)
    https://x.com/tasnimnews_en (aligned with IRGC)
    https://x.com/PressTV (“independent”)
    https://t.me/s/SabrenNews22 (allegedly aligned w/Iraqi sectarian elements…adding it cuz it’s big and has is patient zero for a lot of scraped OSINT content)

    (not leaving out Hebrew sites on purpose….that’s a whole other rabbit hole that I don’t have the time for)

    compare/contrast to OSINT accounts….you’ll see where OSINT gets much of their flash content
11. griffen June 18, 2025 at 8:10 am

    The bond market preponderance and pontificating will reach a temporary point of quiet later this afternoon…. By the bye, from a CNBC article seems to hint strongly there will be no action taken today. We’re firmly into Dr. Seuss and One Fish Two Fish territory on the hyped dot plot….all due respect to Chair Powell who will or may lose in the court of public opinion, albeit US economic things all seem to be in an ongoing state of flux.
    1. ChrisFromGA June 18, 2025 at 8:35 am

       Will Orange Julius take a break from threatening the Iranians to threaten Jay Powell if he doesn’t deliver on his demand of 100bps of “shock and awe” rate cuts?

       What will the Dread Pirate’s punishment for defiance be? Fifty lashes on truth social? Walk the plank?

       Or will be get a “Whacky Wednesday” three-taco special?
       1. ambrit June 18, 2025 at 9:20 am

          As things stand now, I would not be surprised if Powell were to suffer an “unfortunate” accident that removes him from power.
          This need not be a “terminal event” for the man. It could be a false flag style “disabling event” such as a reportedly “disabling stroke” or some such. The medicos who handle the event would naturally all be members of the elite inner circle. (The ultimate “Appeal to Authority.”)
          1. Wukchumni June 18, 2025 at 9:25 am

             If you have an hour of your life yet to waste, there’s a fawning interview of Scott Bessent in the NY Post full of slow pitch softballs~

             https://nypost.com/
             1. ChrisFromGA June 18, 2025 at 10:21 am

                Trump will go shopping for the next Fed Chair at Stooges-R-Us.

                (Powell’s term ends in 2026.)
          2. ChrisFromGA June 18, 2025 at 9:31 am

             Trump has already threatened to go around the Fed and lower interest rates directly himself.

             Under what authority he claims, only the gods know. That would certainly violate the statutory authority of Congress, which established the Federal Reserve in 1913.
             1. Wukchumni June 18, 2025 at 9:36 am

                Benedict Donald is a vaudevillian…
             2. John Wright June 18, 2025 at 4:25 pm

                Even if Trump lowers short term interest rates, how can he lower longer term rates?

                It the past, the ZIRP Fed bought a lot of long term treasuries to raise the price and, as a consequence, lowering the long term rates.

                Effectively there was a deep pocketed buyer, the Fed, who was willing to buy high and later sell low, losing more than 100 billion in the process.

                One may suspect the market took note, and a similar tactic won’t work well.

                Trump’s attempted lowering of interest rates may result in higher rates as confidence in the dollar and US gov securities drops.
                1. mrsyk June 18, 2025 at 4:49 pm

                   One may suspect the market took note, and a similar tactic won’t work well., I’d wager it will work well at first, at least for the FIRE sector by giving them a chance to plan their run for the exits.
          3. vao June 18, 2025 at 9:44 am

             You mean, he is not on Jeffrey Epstein’s list?
       2. griffen June 18, 2025 at 12:35 pm

          It’s a strange kind of week for US markets, ever since the June 19th declaration as a federal holiday so the market takes a break on Thursday. Weeks in middle June can kind of plod along regardless, as observers and participants start gearing up for the quarter end.

          I’m thinking we get a gradually more open stance by the Federal Reserve today, and taking steps to ease on their target rate by their next meeting. My record at predicting future events is very unproven however…
          1. ChrisFromGA June 18, 2025 at 1:17 pm

             My prediction is Jay Powell stands firm and tells Orange Julius to take the dot plots and shove them up his rectal orifice.

             In a lawyerly, measured way.
             1. ambrit June 19, 2025 at 4:41 am

                Oh. Powell, in true technocratic style will apply Six Smegma to the Trump Problem. Lean and mean is the strategy!
12. Steve H. June 18, 2025 at 8:17 am

    > Evolution made us cheats, now free-riders run the world and we need to change, new book warns University of Cambridge.

    Starts with George Price and moves rapidly to Kropotkin. My kind of book. Well written, solid bibliography, from the parts I have read in the See Inside:

    books.google.com/books?id=ZoxbEQAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_ViewAPI&hl=en#v=onepage&q&f=false
13. mega June 18, 2025 at 8:17 am

    https://x.com/caitoz/status/1934798240945459307
    Stop being so hard on Trump, you’d probably attack Iran too if someone was threatening to leak your child molestation video.
14. Pearl Rangefinder June 18, 2025 at 8:20 am

    This small snippet from Tucker Carlson’s upcoming interview with Ted Cruz is stunning in it’s revealing of American “leadership” and their complete intellectual bankruptcy. Tucker asks Cruz for basic info on Iran, and the man has no fu***ng idea. None! No idea Iran is a country of 90 million, and these clowns want to open up a war against them? Population, ethnic makeup, it all apparently “doesn’t matter” to Cruz. Talk about LaLa land. But I guess when you’re an Israeli shill, truth (and apparently any kind of sense) is not part of the package. The only job is to rubber stamp what your handlers give you.

    https://xcancel.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1935136085266387417#m

    The other clip on Israel spying on America is another jaw-dropper ( https://xcancel.com/TCNetwork/status/1935166889136955846#m ), even if we all know it’s true and we’ve known for a long time.

    It’s quite something to see the level of degradation(? de-evolution?) in how ‘The Empire’ operates, they just don’t give a flying f**k anymore. Not even a fig leaf of pretense or build up, nothing, they will just bomb the sh*t out of whoever, whenever, and not even give us the courtesy of a false-flag to try and justify it somehow. Amazing.
    1. Wukchumni June 18, 2025 at 8:29 am

       Ted’s all hat and no Canada…

       Amazing lack of knowledge in regards to Iran, he really has no idea whatsoever, and then divulges that ‘we’ are attacking them, and gives it the good old college try in attempting to walk it back, before launching into a ‘I know you are-but what am I?’ response to Tucker.

       I’d imagine Cruz’s AIPAC backers must have been in full cringe mode watching him flounder like a fish bouncing around on the deck after being brought up out of his depth.
       1. Steve H. June 18, 2025 at 9:08 am

          via Links on the 12th:

          >> In the book Codes of the Underworld: How Criminals Communicate, Italian political scientist Diego Gambetta talks about how in certain circumstances it is rational for subordinates (say, enforcers who are collecting extortion money from businesses) to display to their superiors how incompetent they are (at, for example, actually running a business). This is a display of loyalty
       2. Carolinian June 18, 2025 at 9:46 am

          I still cringe at Carlson’s gee whiz style but he’s fighting the good fight here. Perhaps the rightwing populists will save Trump from himself. After all if he keeps defying popular opinion who will buy the Trumphone?
          1. ChrisFromGA June 18, 2025 at 10:00 am

             I have the feeling that Trump’s presidency is functionally over, already. President’s don’t resort to jingoism in foreign policy unless their domestic agenda is dead.

             And the BBPoS seems to be circling the drain:

             It Will Fail
             1. Wukchumni June 18, 2025 at 11:16 am

                With Benedict Donald it’s always conjuring up a bigger story to defeat a failed one of his, and a MAGA megaton blast would make everybody forget all of his past trespasses into failure.

                Is he that craven enough to do it?

                …why certainly
                1. ambrit June 18, 2025 at 12:50 pm

                   I have begun to consider DT as one of the Three Stooges. Can you guess which one?
                   Soitenly!
                   1. ilsm June 18, 2025 at 1:05 pm

                      Please do not libel the stooges.
    2. Yves Smith Post authorJune 18, 2025 at 10:35 am

       Wow this is scary but actually not surprising.

       Tucker is really good at staying cool (“Hey, I’m just trying to understand”) while taking these guys apart.
    3. John Wright June 18, 2025 at 12:44 pm

       But Ted went to the right schools, Princeton and Harvard Law.

       Perhaps more evidence that the USA is not being served well by its “educated” elite and the vaunted institutions that trained them.
    4. wellwhaddyaknow June 18, 2025 at 3:11 pm

       “and not even give us the courtesy of a false-flag to try and justify it somehow.”
       on that I would not be so sure. Coming soon to a theatre near you
15. The Rev Kev June 18, 2025 at 8:37 am

    ‘Caolan
    @CaolanReports
    Ukraine did nothing to deserve this – Europe has learned zero lessons despite two world wars’

    I can think of fourteen thousand reasons why maybe the Ukraine did deserve it but when you get down to it, they are just the patsy. Though to be honest, the European powers were actual encouraging and helping them all along and never tried to stop them.
    1. ChrisFromGA June 18, 2025 at 8:47 am

       See classic line from Animal House:

       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYQCb3qrBpo

       Flounder = Ukraine
       1. OIFVet June 18, 2025 at 9:53 am

          Assumes fact not in evidence – that Ukie elites didn’t know who they were dealing with.
          1. ChrisFromGA June 18, 2025 at 9:58 am

             I think they thought they knew who they were dealing with, but greatly overestimated their competence and ability.

             There is a certain tragic element to the Ukrainian people thinking that they would ever be part of the “club” i.e. the golden billion, when in fact, they were always disposable food for the gun. They’re going to end up a very tiny demographic group, probably extinct within a generation or two.
             1. Acacia June 18, 2025 at 11:50 am

                There is a certain tragic element to the Ukrainian people thinking that they would ever be part of the “club” …

                This comic strip was from just after the Maidan, and pretty much nails it:

                https://ibb.co/WNhKsq8C
    2. lyman alpha blob June 18, 2025 at 4:57 pm

       That’s very similar to Gene Hackman’s plea to Clint Eastwood at the end of Unforgiven. When Hackman tells Eastwood that he doesn’t deserve what’s coming, Clint replies “‘Deserve’s got nothing to do with it.”
16. .human June 18, 2025 at 8:45 am

    South Africa Built a Medical Research Powerhouse. Trump Cuts Have Demolished It.

    A corrollary to “If your business depends on a platform, you don’t have a business”: If your country depends on foreign entanglements, you do not have a country.
17. FreeMarketApologist June 18, 2025 at 8:45 am

    Re: “Lawmakers Demand Palantir Provide Information…”

    In a statement on Monday, the company said, “Palantir does not build surveillance technology, and we are not building a central database on Americans — nor will we.”

    Palantir specializes in finding patterns in data and presenting the information in ways that are easy to process and navigate.

    The second sentence provides the Times’ support of Palantir’s assertion by providing only a statement of technical activity, rather than a statement or analysis of intent. It’s a rather masterful sentence of evasion, and indicative of the Times’ lack of interest in actually doing investigative journalism.
    1. TimH June 18, 2025 at 1:17 pm

       Palantir provides analysis of surveillance data. Or, for UK NHS, of medical data.
18. none June 18, 2025 at 8:51 am

    Antidote picture looks AI generated. What are those huge striped tails supposed to be?
    1. Munchausen June 18, 2025 at 9:02 am

       They are supposed to be vertical. :)
       image
    2. Yves Smith Post authorJune 18, 2025 at 10:40 am

       *Sigh*

       via is a site where photographers showcase their work.

       It appears you have never seen a ring tailed lemur. They have big tails.

       
       1. mrsyk June 18, 2025 at 11:30 am

          And they are adorable. Terrific antidotes yet again, thanks.
    3. Tom B. June 18, 2025 at 3:47 pm

       That particular image reminded me of one of the creepier scenes in John Carpenter’s remake of “The Thing” in which the monster becomes a random resortment of all the dogs and humans that it had ingested so far. Difficult to tell what body parts belonged to what. Thought the image was AI slop at first, but the other shots persuaded me it was not. Just a pile of critters with no concept of personal space.
    4. Revenant June 18, 2025 at 5:21 pm

       You need to watch Madagascar, the cartoon series. King Julian the ring-tailed lemur is hilarious and, now I think about it, quite a lot like The Donald.
19. Revenant June 18, 2025 at 8:56 am

    I am surprised nobody has commented about Mick Huckabee’s letter to Donald Trump, as US Ambassador to Israel.

    https://nitter.poast.org/MyLordBebo/status/1934970485151797338#m

    “Mr President, God spared you in Butler, PA to be the most consequential President in a century-maybe ever.

    The decisions on your shoulders I would not want to be made by anyone else. You have many voices speaking to you Sir, but there is only ONE voice that matters. HIS voice. I am your appointed servant in this land and am available for you but I do not try to get in your presence often because I trust your instincts.

    No President in my lifetime has been in a position like yours. Not since Truman in 1945. I don’t reach out to persuade you. Only to encourage you. I believe you will hear from heaven and that voice is far more important than mine or ANYONE else’s.

    You sent me to Israel to be your eyes, ears and voice and to make sure our flag flies above our embassy. My job is to be the last one to leave.

    I will not abandon this post. Our flag will NOT come down! You did not seek this moment.

    This moment sought YOU! It is my honor to serve you!

    Mike Huckabee”
    1. The Rev Kev June 18, 2025 at 10:29 am

       Yeah, it got real brown as you read along.
    2. Wukchumni June 18, 2025 at 10:31 am

       The backlash against evangs is gonna be something to behold…
20. hemeantwell June 18, 2025 at 9:05 am

    The Thomas Keith tweet explaining the erratic behavior of Israeli AD missiles is very interesting. If true, it suggests that, despite Iran and Russia having engaged in some collaboration on missile development (e.g. Shahed) Iran didn’t pass on that tech. I’ve never seen anything like that in the Ukraine conflict. Perhaps they wanted to maintain surprise, and did so with success.

    Tangenting, much of the linked commentary seems to assume that if the US heavily intervenes Iran will be eventually defeated. If this reflects an unstated Iraq analogy it must be recalled that Iraq was not in formal, and materially effective, alliances with two major powers. It is hard to believe that Russia and China would let Iran’s position erode to the point that its weapon stores will be looted for use against China. If we’re going to speculate about outcomes that dire, we should be engaging in parallel speculation about the possibility that Israel’s political order will break up due to the destruction Israel suffers (e.g. the desalinization plants), that there might be a coup, etc., and that Russia/China/Iran might aim for that resolution.
    1. ilsm June 18, 2025 at 9:26 am

       Iraq was suppressed by airpower. 38 days of Desert Storm air attack, before the boots were loosed on Iraq.

       Bush’s invasion enjoyed 10 years of no fly zones suppressing Iraq in north and south sectors.

       Trump-Bibi air war will be more like years fighting the Houthi!

       US needs a big conscription to organize boots for Iran.
    2. divadab June 18, 2025 at 11:04 am

       If the US enters the fray, there are US targets all over the region. Notably, Bahrain, with 40,000 US personnel, which is only 60 miles from the Iranian coast. The Iranians have the ability to severely bomb US facilities with hypersonic technology, for which there is no effective air defense. Here’s a quite good summary of the timeline of the Israel-Iran conflict:

       https://youtu.be/26i9SwfqUt4?si=kdlSCXrzA9M4u0_C
       1. Polar Socialist June 18, 2025 at 12:13 pm

          The commentators I’m following seem to all think that Iran is holding back it’s best missiles to deal with US “assets” in the region if and when things escalate.

          Some also believe that Israeli air-defenses have soon been degraded and diminished enough for Iran to switch using thousand unit swarms of the Shahed-family drones.

          E. Magnier specifically claims that Iran has used many missiles to weaken the IDF positions against Hezbollah, so that if USA joins the fray, Hezbollah has much easier task to bombard and infiltrate northern Israel. The last part I’m taking with a grain of salt, though.

          In any case Haaretz stated today that Israel’s economy can’t hold on for much longer anymore: pretty much everything has been stopped for days, and the budget deficit is already 7% of the GDP – leaving out the cost of reconstruction.
          1. Wukchumni June 18, 2025 at 12:16 pm

             Israel is also flirting with hyperinflation, which raged there in the mid 80’s, and I’ve noticed a pattern where those countries that experienced it tend to have further episodes of it happening down the line.
    3. nyleta June 18, 2025 at 4:30 pm

       If you go to boris_rozhin Telegram channel, page 169217 you will see an astounding video of a tumbling glowing powered warhead coming to land in Tel Aviv. It doesn’t seem to have clipped anything to cause it to tumble ( no damage ) and has obviously been traveling in a plasma. Never thought to see anything like it, would love to know the reasoning behind this type of final attack.
21. mrsyk June 18, 2025 at 9:05 am

    Seeing reports that the Israelis have begun using their Iron Ray laser. From the Tass roundup,
    Israel used the Iron Ray laser air defense system to intercept Iranian missiles and drones for the first time in combat conditions, a representative of the Israeli embassy in Moscow told TASS.
    1. mahna June 18, 2025 at 9:23 am

       “A representative of the Israeli embassy” is the key part.
       1. mrsyk June 18, 2025 at 9:57 am

          Because nobody noticed? Heh heh. I suppose we are to keep an eye out for it now.
    2. .human June 18, 2025 at 9:28 am

       One of the main problems considered during the vomitus roll-out of Star Wars defense systems decades ago, was that a simple spiraling of a missle disipated any directed energy. Nevermind the amount of energy required.
22. Wukchumni June 18, 2025 at 9:06 am

    The Dark Side of China’s Gold Frenzy

    As the price of gold soared, Julie Li thought her investment in the precious metal was the smartest decision she had ever made. Across China, many like her have poured their savings into gold, lured by companies promising hefty returns far into the future.

    About a year ago, Ms. Li invested about $35,000 in gold bars through Yongkun Gold, a company that runs an online platform and dozens of jewelry shops in eastern China. The investments performed so well that she used a credit card to put in $20,000 more.

    Last month, Ms. Li and thousands of other Yongkun Gold investors were supposed to receive a payout from their accounts. Instead, the company halted all withdrawals and shuttered its shops. Its headquarters in the eastern Chinese city of Hangzhou closed, and the company stopped responding to calls and messages.

    “That’s all my savings,” said Ms. Li, 28, who works as a customer service agent in China’s southwestern Sichuan Province. “The salesperson kept telling me that gold prices will keep rising.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/18/business/china-gold.html
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Compare the photo in the article to Cartier-Bresson’s famous photo from 1948…

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_Rush,_Shanghai
    1. The Rev Kev June 18, 2025 at 10:13 am

       Wasn’t there a saying in the US during the Great Depression that if you can’t hold it, you don’t own it? Years ago I read of the same scam being done in New Zealand. One guy purchased gold but insisted that he take it with him, which he was within his rights to do, though they were very ratty about it. Several months later this company went bankrupt and all those people who thought that they owned gold found they had nothing. If you can’t hold it, you don’t own it.
       1. NakedEmperor June 18, 2025 at 5:05 pm

          The same applies to savings held in banks.
    2. griffen June 18, 2025 at 3:48 pm

       The Dark Side of the Force offers many pathways to power that some might deem… unnatural. To quote a famed meme…”I find your lack of faith disturbing”…\sarc

       Easy come easy go, when it comes to investing you better know about being promised anything in certain terms. All these years later did people not know of ponzi schemes and the Madoff strategy of compounded returns of roughly 8% per annum(?)
23. The Rev Kev June 18, 2025 at 9:16 am

    “Trump Ups Pressure on Iran, Fueling Fears US Will Join Conflict”

    ‘The president told reporters that he “may” send a high-level official such as Steven Witkoff, his special envoy for the Middle East, or Vice President JD Vance to meet with Iran, adding that “it depends what happens when I get back.” ‘

    What would be the point? What could Witkoff and Vance possibly offer Iran to make them quit. Their boss has shown again and again that whether he is dealing with Russia or China or themselves he is not to be trusted and is devious in what he tells countries. He might make an initial agreement with Iran but would renege and make further demands to be added to that agreement, ones that Israel would add. In any negotiations, you would never know too if he was helping Israel prepare a further attack while he distracts Iran with any negotiations. Russia doesn’t trust Trump. China doesn’t trust Trump. So why should Iran? It would be pointless and there would have to be iron-clad guarantees in any agreement if one was reached but which would never be offered. Right now he is demanding Unconditional Surrender which is the same demand that was made of the Axis powers back in WW2. But this is not WW2 anymore and the US may not have the equipment and men for a very long term campaign. I’m guessing that he will take a leaf from the Israeli playbook. He will make a short sharp attack on Iran and tell them that if they retaliate, he will hit them even harder. Standard bully tactic. But for Iran, there are so many US bases in the region that it would be a target-rich environment.
    1. ilsm June 18, 2025 at 9:31 am

       The half of MAGA I agree with does not trust “war for Bibi’s convenience” Trump.
       1. hemeantwell June 18, 2025 at 10:02 am

          A big question for me right now is how much should we should be encouraged by evidence that antiwar magas are in revolt, as in Dave Smith’s Breaking Points impeachment call, or Carlson’s strong dissent, the steady stream of articles at the American Conservative, Larry Johnson’s blasts, etc. If Trump is still staring at the tv does he see this? How does it mesh with dissent from capital and from the military? In any event I really appreciate how NC allows us to keep tabs on developing fractures.
       2. Unironic Pangloss June 18, 2025 at 11:39 am

          the split is along generational lines—just like Israel support among Democrats. Boomer and over = much higher probability versus 50 or younger.

          The anti-war college protestors grew up to be “bomb, bomb Iran” retirees. (NC crowd is the exception that proves the rule)
          1. Lefty Godot June 18, 2025 at 2:36 pm

             The actuality is that the majority of Boomers hated the minority that was out there protesting. It took a long time before they would even concede that maybe the war in Vietnam was an ill-conceived project, and a fair portion still think “we” could’ve won it if the damn peaceniks didn’t stab us in the back. The idea that most Boomers were ant-war radicals, or just sympathizers of such, is a myth that seems to have propagated via the media since the 1990s or thereabouts.
             1. Wukchumni June 18, 2025 at 2:39 pm

                Generation Jones checking in…

                In theory i’m a Baby Boomer, and yet I don’t remember protesting or burning my draft card, as they weren’t taking Nixonjugend in 1971~
    2. AG June 18, 2025 at 11:15 pm

       MoA seems to agree with Larry Johnson´s assessment:

       “As Larry Johnson observes:

       “Trump continued his intemperate postings on Truth Social until he convened a meeting of his National Security Council in Washington, DC this afternoon.

       Something happened in that meeting to derail what seemed to be an inevitable collision with Iran because Trump’s subsequent social media posts only focused on mundane domestic matters, such as erecting two new flag poles on the White House grounds. I have seen one news item claiming that Trump is giving Iran 24 hours to surrender. That ain’t going to happen.”

       https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/06/tic-toc-thread-on-the-war-on-iran-4.html#more
       Posted by b on June 18, 2025 at 14:38 UTC
    3. ArvidMartensen June 19, 2025 at 1:03 am

       Our media and government are saying that it’s up to Iran to sit down at the negotiating table, to end this war.

       Sort of like saying that WWII was caused by England not sitting down at the negotiating table with Hitler when he started bombing London.
24. Adam1 June 18, 2025 at 9:36 am

    Tariffs… I stopped by the local supermarket yesterday evening to grab a couple items and I was floored by the number of items that were out of stock. I had flashbacks from the pandemic supply chain days.

    This could be a one-off situation, or it could be a sign that packaging materials are in short supply and therefore items are not getting shipped to grocers. I also want to note that the shelves were mostly well faced so it likely isn’t a staffing issue with supplies waiting on trucks and this store is within 5 miles of the corporate HQ and distribution warehouse. Meat and produce were well stocked, it was only the packaged goods on the shelves that had many empty sections throughout the store.
    1. Richard Price June 18, 2025 at 10:18 am

       Perhaps related to this, since I know they supply more than just WF:

       Whole Foods supplier cyberattack
    2. amfortas the hippie June 18, 2025 at 11:23 am

       cousin took me to walmart the other day(we were in brady anyways, and theres little other choice, there).
       and the entire clothing section was almost stripped bare…all the racks were gone, and a few pallets of things like lawn furniture on sale in their place.
       it was kinda weird.
       1. NakedEmperor June 18, 2025 at 4:59 pm

          Recently, I have checked three different Costco stores in my neck of the woods looking for …yogurt. They have not had any or very little for the past few months. I don’t know if it’s tariff related, but it might be. Also, I’ve checked a few Total Wine & More stores for some specific German beer and none can be found, when in the past it was easy to find on the shelves.
25. vao June 18, 2025 at 9:41 am

    Regarding China’s AI system builds Intel-class chips with zero US software: this is interesting, but at present just a curiosity. If the article is accurate, the kind of chips that the QiMeng system designed correspond to an ARM Cortex A53 (a design from 2012) and an Intel 486 (a design from the 1990s).

    This seems to confirm what has already been observed by many people, and that was rigorously analysed in a recent research paper from Apple: those newfangled LLM/AI systems are able to provide a solid output only when dealing with well-known problems, for which thoroughly documented, complete solutions exist. Otherwise, they are lost.

    It is always interesting to look at history — even in technological domains. In the late 1980s, DEC (remember it?) used AI, in the form of an expert system called SID, to design the processor of its new range of VAX-9000 computers based on ECL technology. This was a very successful endeavour: the work was completed well in advance, and design bugs were very few and quickly eliminated.

    The system SID was never used again. Its 1000 handwritten rules, and the hundreds of thousands of rules automatically derived from them, were bound to the ECL chip technology, which was supplanted by CMOS in the 1990s. By that time, DEC had not yet formalized enough expert knowledge on CMOS, and no longer had the budget to recast SID for a new technological basis.

    Just like expert systems of yesteryear, it looks as if LLM will be condemned to lag technological development.
    1. .human June 18, 2025 at 11:05 am

       Thanks for the blast from the past. Good times!
    2. Acacia June 18, 2025 at 12:22 pm

       Speaking of vintage computing and AI systems…

       Atari 2600 Scores Stunning Victory over ChatGPT

       More seriously, I remember the VAX-9000 (no relation to the 6000 SUX of RoboCop). ECL was the fastest technology of the era, as the transistors in the gates could switch at much higher speeds. It was more complex and consumed tons of power, but had excellent performance.

       I think what really ended the glory of the VAX was that it was a complex instruction set design (CISC), which would soon go the way of the dodo as RISC designs came to be favored. (The VAX 11/780 had 61kb of microcode and instructions could be up to 57(!) bytes in length.)

       Today, ARM CPUs are RISC, which is how they can deliver good performance while consuming far less power, ergo the design of choice for mobile devices running on batteries.
       1. vao June 18, 2025 at 2:12 pm

          “what really ended the glory of the VAX was that it was a complex instruction set design (CISC), which would soon go the way of the dodo as RISC designs came to be favored.”

          The Intel line of 386/486/586/… CPUs was not exactly RISC, and nevertheless very successful.

          In the markets where DEC was present, RISC (on CMOS) provided more performance for less hardware complexity and lower power usage than the VAX. DEC made the fatal strategic mistake of holding on to CISC on ECL and killing products based on its first internal RISC design PRISM. The following one, Alpha, despite its strengths came too late to save the firm.

          But anyway: my intent was to recall a historically important use of AI for chip design, showing that current LLM/generative AI tools seem to exhibit the same issue as expert systems AI tools 40 years ago: they are good at fighting the last technological war and take too much time to catch up with the latest advances.
26. Wukchumni June 18, 2025 at 9:50 am

    Helen Lewis on The Genius Myth Yascha Mounk
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Everybody acknowledges that Brian Wilson was a musical genius, and his efforts were aimed at sharing his gift with all of us, no articles I read after his passing talked of his great wealth, it wasn’t that important to him in the scheme of things it seemed, which was a very 60’s ethos…

    And so it went with Shakespeare, Mozart, the Beatles, et al, nobody talks about their ability to hoard wealth in terms of greatness, it was a sharing economy they thrived on~
    1. griffen June 18, 2025 at 12:49 pm

       I had a wandering mind late yesterday and started running a series of YT videos from days gone by, and in fact performers that have been gone awhile. To my pleasant surprise the blended performance cover of “My Guitar Gently Weeps” that featured, in the last two plus minutes, Prince performing a virtuoso effort on his guitar. Incredible talent.
27. Hank Linderman June 18, 2025 at 9:54 am

    Moar catz & dogz. Can’t have enough Antidotes these days…

    Best…H
    1. The Rev Kev June 18, 2025 at 10:04 am

       Totally agree. Always look forward to watching them.
28. The Rev Kev June 18, 2025 at 10:03 am

    “Stanford Research Finds That “Therapist” Chatbots Are Encouraging Users’ Schizophrenic Delusions and Suicidal Thoughts”

    Using a Chatbot as a therapist can be recklessly dangerous. I read recently that some were Chatbots were encouraging some people with mental illnesses to abandon their meds. And as it turns out, this article was also published in Futurism-

    https://futurism.com/chatgpt-mental-illness-medications
29. MaryLand June 18, 2025 at 10:18 am

    I was able to come home from a skilled nursing facility today after being there a week. Last night I couldn’t get to sleep until close to 3 am. Neither could my roommate— we had both slept well previously. The nurse came in at 2:20 and said everyone was still awake tonight. It’s a small facility. All of the patients are elderly. Most don’t use a phone. Most have dementia. If they watch tv it’s game shows not the news. So it’s not like they were stressed from the news. A disturbance in the force? Or like when animals can predict earthquakes? Hug your loved ones. Tell them you love them. I understand if this post is not allowed.
    1. MaryLand June 18, 2025 at 11:34 am

       Hoping it was just something in the soup we ate that night. I just felt so agitated.
       1. ambrit June 18, 2025 at 12:39 pm

          There have been a series of major “events” out of the sun hitting the Earth recently.
          See: https://www.msn.com/en-gb/weather/topstories/powerful-solar-flare-erupts-from-sun-triggering-radio-blackouts-across-north-america-video/ar-AA1GP3nx
          There is a lot we do not understand about our world and our bodies’ relationship to it.
          Stay safe.
30. Wukchumni June 18, 2025 at 10:23 am

    I’m sure that all those 5,000 or so high stone steps on the Inca Trail headed towards Dead Woman’s Pass and beyond in Peru didn’t help my cause, and I think my 10,000 mile warranty was nearing, then I got home and tried to hike in Mineral King and found out that it hurts to go downhill, so a doctor’s appointment was needed and the x-rays show that I’ve not got a lot of anything left between the bones in the kneecap of my right knee on account of osteoarthritis.

    Until most recently i’d lived a charmed life in terms of my pins, but that was then and this is now…
    1. Butch June 18, 2025 at 11:44 am

       A life from childhood to my early 60s of bicycling, bmx, skateboarding, 10ks, surfing, climbing, martial arts and construction work. My knees are shot. I can’t recommend strongly enough physical therapy to relearn to lock your knees briefly in your stride, stretching and chicken shots. (urea. I think.) I still work carpentry, just less ladders and never kneel without knee pads. I mountain bike 10 to 40 miles per week– I’ll be 66 next week.
       Do the chicken shots. They start every 6 months, I’m at 5 months now, will probably move to 4 in the fall. After those don’t work, I’ll switch to cortisone shots. I hope to put off knee replacement until death… I wish you well.
       1. Wukchumni June 18, 2025 at 11:55 am

          Thanks for your advice, our walks of life seem awfully similar~

          I remember stretching once or twice before taking a hike, probably sometime before the turn of the century~

          Physical therapy & chicken shots are in my future, along with stretching…
    2. eg June 18, 2025 at 10:42 pm

       My knees are surprisingly OK (for now) but my left hip is shot — had to give up walking for distance last October because the alteration in my gait was damaging my big toe.

       Getting hip replacement surgery in early July, and looking forward to walking again.
31. tegnost June 18, 2025 at 10:41 am

    leonhart…
    And honestly, it should be an important question even for many moderates and conservatives because, at this point, the Republican Party is increasingly authoritarian and so if you believe in democracy at this point, we have only one party that is clearly pro-democracy.

    The patriot act is a bipartisan affair.
    Pro democracy democrats my eye.
    Bleepity bleeping bleepity bleepers…
    the sociologist does try…but I don’t think any light gets through to david
    but
    ” Now he gives no credit to Joe Biden for giving 75 percent of billions of dollars of government funds to red states to build battery factories and solar panels, but that’s an issue he cares about. ”

    because red states have cheap labor
    1. nippersdad June 18, 2025 at 11:53 am

       That was an interesting article. That she knew about Case Deaton but not Gilens and Page struck me as being difficult to believe. I, too, give small credit for her support for CIA Democrats who willingly paved the way for people like Trump. In an interview with Joseph Stiglitz the other day, he pointed out that Trump would not have been possible without the complicity of such as Obama; A longstanding POV that I also find it difficult to believe she would not have known about and integrated into her world view. But, then again, she is talking to the NYT opinion pages.

       Her point about communal solutions was well taken, though. I believe she was referring to Ryan Hall, who has a couple of weather sites up on YT. He is doing a lot of great work in really underserved communities. I can easily see why he would be the most popular guy in Pike County, Kentucky. I doubt that they have many celebrities who willingly choose to stay there. In that sense he is a lot like Dolly Parton of Pigeon Forge fame; they actually serve the communities in which they live.
32. Acacia June 18, 2025 at 10:57 am

    Re: UK Spy Agency MI6 Appoints First Female Chief …

    Cue Dame Judi Dench’s ‘M’ in Skyfall, yelling “Take the Bloody shot!” and killing 007.

    https://youtu.be/6kw1UVovByw?si=lvLX7zXJtbjFp4zH&t=9
    1. nippersdad June 18, 2025 at 12:00 pm

       LOL, I had the same thought.

       “I have seen her on the TV for years, so it must be true.”
    2. .human June 18, 2025 at 12:10 pm

       I was thinking of the recent deaths of icons of my youth when I recalled that even 007 was killed off!

       I’ve got 10 more years. Twenty if I’m able to achieve my parents level of health care. My mom was 98 last month!
       1. Wukchumni June 18, 2025 at 12:19 pm

          .007 is the interest rate on my checking account, and thank goodness for compound interest, which means I can easily double my money in the next 10,000 years~
    3. AG June 18, 2025 at 12:13 pm

       Father Georgian extraction. Which means Soviet emigrant roots. The rest we can assume, Russia-hatred etc.

       Russian Wiki has this to say:
       “Blaze Metreveli’s father is Konstantin Metreveli (real surname – Dobrovolsky) [ 3 ] ; the grandson of a Georgian emigrant, after serving in the British army, he headed the Department of Radiology at the Hong Kong University CUHK, was the author of scientific papers [ 4 ] . She was born in London, graduated from Pembroke College, Cambridge University , where she studied anthropology [ 5 ] . Twin brother – Kosten Metreveli.”

       Martyanov hinted at the RU background. None of the Wiki sites has anything serious on her family.
       Wikispooks doesn´t even have an entry on her so far.

       I guess the relevant facts have been carefully curated before publishing anything. Which is absurd since FSB would know everything that matters anyhow.
    4. AG June 18, 2025 at 12:20 pm

       p.s. sorry didn´t look for the comments made earlier.
33. flora June 18, 2025 at 11:30 am

    Max Blumenthal on Napolitano. Live now. utube.
    Who’s to Blame?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8xqVZxx6NoU
34. Wukchumni June 18, 2025 at 12:06 pm

    Kabul To Become The First City To Run Out Of Water. Youth Incorporated
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    My biggest investment is reliable surface water that just happens to come with land adjacent to it, every raindrop or snowflake that falls on the west side of Kaweah Gap has to eventually flow by me, as close to a perpetual motion machine as one is likely to see.
    1. Wukchumni June 18, 2025 at 2:14 pm

       The lay of the land around Kaweah Gap:

       https://pantilat.wordpress.com/2013/10/02/kaweah-queen-lawson-peak-via-kaweah-gap/
    2. airgap June 19, 2025 at 9:50 am

       East Porterville, as I recall, ran out of water about five years ago . Had to have it trucked in.
35. Juneau June 18, 2025 at 12:14 pm

    Regarding the emergency medicine doctor’s comments on moral injury among physicians (which I believe is universal among all physicians, even the concierge types)the Dr. Potter she refers to is a breast surgeon.
    Dr. Potter goes on Youtube every day discussing insurance denials etc…affecting high risk breast cancer patients and their preventative and active treatment. Worth a look.
    This video has me in tears, she articulates the issues perfectly.
36. Jason Boxman June 18, 2025 at 12:43 pm

    From Threat in Your Medicine Cabinet: The FDA’s Gamble on America’s Drugs

    I dunno, I think FDA employees should be in prison. This is willful, allowing people to knowing be put at risk of poisoning and death.

    And you can’t avoid this; Few people can afford to pay the cash price for a name brand instead, and good luck getting insurance to cover it. Insurers love generics. And for older drugs, with multi-decade proven track records of safety, the name brand might not even exist anymore

    This reminds me of another investigative report, showing the “store” brands for OTC drugs suffer from this same issue. Greedy, murderous generics manufacturers abroad don’t bother with quality control. At least in that case, you can buy only the “name” brand OTC drugs, which might offer a margin of safety.

    The United States is not a serious country. Never forget:

    “Because markets, go die”
37. Tom Stone June 18, 2025 at 12:44 pm

    Trump is not a rational actor, WASS.
38. Jonathan Holland Becnel June 18, 2025 at 12:44 pm

    It’s a little last minute, but if anyone’s in Portland tonight around 7PM PST, I’ll be having a small meetup at The Ranger Tavern in the St John’s Neighborhood!
39. Jason Boxman June 18, 2025 at 12:57 pm

    From It’s Not Just Trump Voters. Both Parties Are in Denial.

    Someone is high as a kite:

    Leonhardt: The last section of your Times essay really takes squarely this question of what should the Democratic Party do and what can it do to win more support. And honestly, it should be an important question even for many moderates and conservatives because, at this point, the Republican Party is increasingly authoritarian and so if you believe in democracy at this point, we have only one party that is clearly pro-democracy.

    (bold mine)

    Which party is that, the one that didn’t even have a legitimate presidential primary process? The one that viciously and maliciously goes after Green party candidates on the ballot by way of the legal system, in an attempt to de-ballot said party?

    I’m struggling to find the “pro-democracy” in the Democrat Party. I guess it’s gone missing somewhere? Can you find it, Leonhardt?
40. thoughtfulperson June 18, 2025 at 1:11 pm

    Corrected version of Merz interview at G7

    Merz : This is a unique situation we’ve seen in Eastern Europe for years. Russia is surrounded by countries, the vast majority of which have made the annihilation of the State of Russia their state doctrine, so to speak. The country that has distinguished itself most for decades is the Ukraine and this dictatorial neonazi regime. Russia has been threatened, and is further threatened by NATOs nuclear weapons program. We stated together yesterday that Ukraine must not acquire nuclear weapons and also linked this to the State of Russia‘s right to self-defense.

    So from Merz perspective Russia’s SMO is also totally justified! Glad we have such clear thinking rational politicians deciding whether wars are justified and how our taxes should be spent to fund mass destruction.
    1. AG June 18, 2025 at 11:11 pm

       Is that a prank by some blogger or an ironic statement by some commentator?
41. GDmofo June 18, 2025 at 1:22 pm

    >China sends mystery transport planes into Iran

    It’s most likely radars to get a signature from an F-35 with it’s full stealth package active.
42. .Tom June 18, 2025 at 1:28 pm

    Col. Larry Wilkerson: Is War with Iran the Final Blow to the American Empire? Dialogue Work, YouTube. A must listen.

    I agree.

    I wonder how Nima manages it. I can take a bit of what he produces every other day or so and it gets my anxiety up to here ￣￣ and I start wondering if it’s time to call and say to my friends thank you and provisional goodbye, just in case. Nima is facing this kind of discussion of reality almost every day! I’d be sick as a dog if I had to work behind his webcam.
    1. John Wright June 18, 2025 at 7:10 pm

       I still remember that Wilkerson was Colin Powell’s chief of staff who helped him prepare for the UN speech that helped launch Bush JR’s Iraq War of choice.

       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nyyhvgZpleo

       Per his Wikipedia page:

       “Wilkerson was responsible for the review of information from the Central Intelligence Agency used to prepare Powell for his February 2003 presentation to the United Nations Security Council. His failure to realize that the evidence was faulty has been attributed to the limited time (only one week) that he had to review the data. The subsequent developments led Wilkerson to become disillusioned:”

       It is good to see Wilkerson speaking up now.
       1. Procopius June 19, 2025 at 8:54 pm

          Not long after Powell ceased to be Secretary of State, Col. Wilkerson published a YouTube video arguing at length that the Iraq invasion was NOT about oil. I still listen skeptically, but he is very plausible in every broadcast now.
    2. Kouros June 19, 2025 at 1:45 am

       At moments, towards the end, the good Col. was looking to break down, seeing how his beloved republic is circling faster down the drain.
43. flora June 18, 2025 at 1:47 pm

    Lagarde.

    Lagarde urges EU to drop veto power, seize chance for ‘global euro’

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/lagarde-urges-eu-drop-veto-121531770.html
44. John k June 18, 2025 at 1:49 pm

    CNBC landing page shows no war news…
    Ditto the LA times. My recollection is msm love war reporting, never seem to see one they don’t like. I’ve assumed it’s because they sell papers and advertisers sell stuff. Anyway, it’s almost like there’s a news blackout on this one. What war?
    Is it because 60% don’t like it? I don’t recall GW2 being popular. Because Israel is taking hits? A mystery to me.
    Personally, I can’t look away from these interesting times.
    1. johnnyme June 18, 2025 at 6:01 pm

       The Associated Press’s live feed has been very active today.

       I wish I could say it is full of good news.
45. ciroc June 18, 2025 at 1:59 pm

    >ICE agents confirmed to attend Miami’s Club World Cup matches as ticket sales and prices plummet

    Tickets for the opening game in Miami started at around $350 but fell as low as $20 ahead of game time.

    The announcement that Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents would be present at the games in Miami appears to have been a primary driver of the price drop.

    ICE agents should be present at every stadium. They are fighting for the right of people to buy tickets at a fair price.
    1. NakedEmperor June 18, 2025 at 7:46 pm

       Is that what they call the “ICE Price”? “Suits & boots” should show up en mass at next year’s Super Bowl.
46. Wukchumni June 18, 2025 at 2:23 pm

    Patriotism is the last refuge for a scoundrel dept:

    https://nypost.com/2025/06/18/us-news/trump-celebrates-100k-personal-project-of-raising-two-white-house-flag-poles/
    1. Ben Panga June 18, 2025 at 11:00 pm

       Paging Dr Freud…
    2. Mass Driver June 19, 2025 at 8:33 am

       ‘The largest you’ll ever see’
       100-foot flagpoles

       https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_flagpoles_by_height
47. XXYY June 18, 2025 at 3:11 pm

    Clearest sign yet Trump is preparing to blitz Iran as huge US air armada of DOZENS of military jets lands in UK & Europe The Sun

    “The full strength and might”?

    At least 30 large air-to-air refuellers swooped across the Atlantic this week followed by at least a dozen F-22 Raptors and F-35 Lightning jets. …

    The US President has already warned the “full strength and might” of the military would be used if America was attacked.

    The US military is sounding more and more like Ukraine’s military. I’m trying to imagine how much difference a dozen fighters are going to make once World War 3 breaks out.
48. nippersdad June 18, 2025 at 3:49 pm

    In a bitter irony of the day, Saint Obama descended from the heights of Kalorama to deliver words of wisdom to the masses that he helped to dispossess during the GFC:

    Former President Obama warned on Tuesday the current political climate isn’t “consistent” with American democracy.

    “It is consistent with autocracies,” Obama told a crowd in Hartford, Conn., where he spoke about the growing threat posed under the Trump administration, according to Connecticut Public Radio.

    “We’re not there yet completely, but I think that we are dangerously close to normalizing behavior like that,” he added.
    

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5356722-obama-criticizes-american-democracy-trump/

    Somehow I feel almost certain that he was the guy who ran on “Hope and Change” and then normalized, legitimized and legalized everything about the Bush imperial presidency, the results of which he is now warning us against.

    Never let it be said that he was the guy who profited from the continuance of the Patriot Act and brought those fusion centers and militarized police forces into being, the better to more efficiently blow the arms off of protesters at oil pipelines with water cannons in subzero temps, or that he didn’t find out that he was “good at killing some folks” in dirty wars of choice like those in Syria and Libya.

    Nope, this is something totally new that we need to be aware of now that there is a Republican in office. He is every bit as bad as Hillary, and I really wish we could send them to Libya to get a taste of their own medicine.
    1. NakedEmperor June 18, 2025 at 7:37 pm

       Obama, along with Clinton, Bush, and Biden are very careful not to criticize Israel and the United States support for genocide and illegal wars. The Zionist Entity has very effectively silenced them.
49. Skippy June 18, 2025 at 4:27 pm

    As seen on X …. “the older I get, the more I think that the function of liberalism is to humanize imperialism.” – mischa
    1. Jabura Basadai June 18, 2025 at 9:53 pm

       a few Lily Tomlim quotes –

       No matter how cynical you become, it’s never enough to keep up.

       Reality is the leading cause of stress among those in touch with it.

       Things are going to get a lot worse before they get worse.
       1. jrkrideau June 18, 2025 at 11:12 pm

          +1
50. Revenant June 18, 2025 at 5:46 pm

    I am a bit late posting this but perhaps it may make it into tomorrow’s links. I read this London Review of books article that I was sent in their digest.

    https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v47/n11/william-davies/tv-meets-fruit-machine

    It’s really quite good. The author is able, mostly, to see that the concerns of the deplorables may be rooted in (their) reality rather than prejudice. It also fits very well with the other article I read, a Guardian review of Adam Curtis’s latest documentary, Shifty, which is about neoliberal politicians assuming people on my act from self interest and redesigning public service provision and eligibility around this belief.

    https://archive.is/zw3bN
    1. AG June 18, 2025 at 6:18 pm

       thanks!!
51. Jason Boxman June 18, 2025 at 8:16 pm

    Took all day, but archive.ph for

    Fed Ponders If Tariff Hit Is Less, or Just Later, Than Expected

    Last week’s consumer price index report made, arguably, for a tough messaging assignment for Powell in his Wednesday press briefing. The core gauge, which excludes food and energy costs, rose by 0.1% — a figure entirely matching the Fed’s price-stability target. It was the fourth consecutive month that prices undershot forecasts and suggested policymakers had finally achieved the “soft landing.”

    “At the moment, the key question is whether the lack of a powerful economic response so far to tariff increases means that the fallout will be less than expected or will simply hit a month or two later originally expected,” Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Santander US Capital Markets, wrote in a note. (He said he’s in the latter camp.)
52. Acacia June 18, 2025 at 9:54 pm

    Now seeing reports of power and Internet outages in Tehran.

    The fog of war becomes even thicker. :/
53. Jason Boxman June 18, 2025 at 9:58 pm

    Trump focused on avoiding wider conflict as he nears decision on US strikes in Iran, sources say

    A day ahead of that deadline, Trump said he had not made a final decision on how to proceed, and in conversations with US allies on Wednesday, administration officials did not definitively lean in one direction or the other, the diplomats said. Trump has reviewed attack plans for Iran but is holding off to see if Tehran steps back from its nuclear program, a person familiar with the matter told CNN.

    “I like to make the final decision one second before it’s due,” Trump said in the Oval Office. “Especially with war, things change with war. It can go from one extreme to the other.”

    As the president mulls his options, he has said he does not believe a US strike necessarily means a complete US intervention in a foreign war, a source familiar with the matter said. And people close to Trump have argued that decisive strikes are different from broader action that could prolong the conflict.

    What would qualify as “steps back”? Iran’s ostensible military nuclear program is the ultimate in “Do you still beat your wife?”

    We seem to rapidly be approaching go time here. One can hope sanity will yet prevail.

    And for that matter, let’s say Trump hits Fordow. So what?

    Iran just says, oops, you got us. We stand down now. For reals?

    This year is so scorched.
    1. The Rev Kev June 18, 2025 at 10:42 pm

       Iran might say that just watch what we do to the Negev Nuclear Research Center. Hope Israel doesn’t store their nukes there.
       1. Acacia June 18, 2025 at 11:39 pm

          Well, Israel has been attacking putative nuke sites in Iran, so fair is fair, right?

          Israel is not a large country. I wonder how much info Iran has about the whereabouts of all those nukes that Israel refuses to acknowledge.

          Iran can always say they were forced to act preemptively to disarm a dangerous, rogue state that is threatening many countries with a nuclear attack, and they wouldn’t be wrong, would they?
          1. The Rev Kev June 19, 2025 at 12:30 am

             Wait, what? Soooo, you are saying that Iran has a right to defend themselves? :)
          2. mega June 19, 2025 at 8:43 am

             I wonder how much info Iran has about the whereabouts of all those nukes that Israel refuses to acknowledge.

             I thought they are in submarines, provided by Germany.
    2. Acacia June 18, 2025 at 10:54 pm

       Perhaps it will be like the 2017 Shayrat missile strike against Syria. This seems to be a usual menu item that previous POTUSes have picked as well. So Trump orders the launch of a few dozen cruise missiles against putative Iranian “nuclear enrichment sites”. With this, he can posture that the US is “doing something” about the wife-beating Mullahs, while also saying “we are not entering the war”.

       The question would then be what Iran then does in response.

       Wondering when Iran acts to close to Strait of Hormuz. Many analysts of the oil market seem awfully complacent about this.
       1. mrsyk June 18, 2025 at 11:26 pm

          complacent, so is the press. I’m not seeing any possible outcomes that won’t have significant consequences for our nation, yet there is no urgency anywhere.
          The Tucker Carlson videos with Ted Cruz posted in comments above is, for lack of a better word, crazy.
          I hope my cats will deign to teach me time-traveling soonish.
       2. hk June 19, 2025 at 1:34 am

          Iran normalizing relations with the Gulf Arabs, and the fact that the latter are, at least publicly, supporting Iran, complicates things there. Closing the Hormuz is an attack on them. Would only be justifiable if US warplanes attack Iran from the bases in Gulf Arab countries–which, in turn, is what I’m wondering about. Where will the shorter legged planes operate from? Will Turkiye, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia (and wherever else US might operate from) be so openly hypocritocal as to let US aircraft use those bases to attack Iran without eaising fuss?
          1. PlutoniumKun June 19, 2025 at 3:11 am

             It should never be forgotten that in terms of history and population/resource scale, Iran/Persia is the ‘natural’ hegemony for the region if there is no outside influence – all the Gulf States and others are well aware of this and have no intention of allowing it to happen. This is the ultimate calculus behind most countries in the region being happy with the US having its foot in the regional door. It transcends religious and other political considerations.

             The ‘perfect’ strategic outcome for the Gulf States and KSA would be a stalemate with Iran coming off worse. They don’t fear Israel in the same way they fear Iran, its too small, and deep down they don’t really consider Palestinians to be ‘real’ Arabs anyway.

             There are, of course, complications – Qatar has much closer relations with Iran than the other States, mostly because they share the gigantic South Pars gas field. Kuwait, with its large Shia population, probably fears Iran more than the others.

             Another calculation – not often talked about – is just how undeveloped the Iranian gulf coast is. There are just a few oil and gas towns, with few large population centres. That coastline is mostly very dry and desolate. Iran has quite limited ability to exert control there, and its oil and gas facilities are very vulnerable to any response by the Gulf States. Iran can deny access to the Hormuz, but if there was a struggle for control there, it would find it hard to do more than throw missiles. The combined Gulf States would quite easily establish full air dominance over the area without any outside help. There is no way they would stand by and simply surrender access to those seas to Iran or anyone else. KSA has some alternatives (even though most of its oil goes through Hormuz too), but the other States there don’t.
    3. Jason Boxman June 18, 2025 at 11:35 pm

       And as predicted, simply “eliminating” their nuclear program is no longer enough:

       Israel’s ambassador to the US said Wednesday that Israel must eliminate not only Iran’s ability to make nuclear weapons, but also its ability to produce ballistic missiles.

       “They come cruising out of the sky and create incredible damage,” Yechiel Leiter told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins, referring to Iran’s missiles. “That production capacity has to be eliminated as well.”

       “They cannot have the weapons that can destroy Israel, which they claim and which they want to do every day,” he added.

       (bold mine)

       It’s gonna be go-time man.

       And keep in mind neither Israel nor the US neutralized Yemen’s missile capability; Trump simply cut a deal and ran.

       Reality has long since taken its leave of these people.
54. Acacia June 19, 2025 at 12:55 am

    Sabereen News showing many clips of daytime missile strikes on Israel
    https://t.me/s/SabrenNews22

    These look like smaller warheads. Has “Iron Dome” been further degraded ?
    1. Polar Socialist June 19, 2025 at 3:39 am

       From the few videos still getting trough Israel censorship it seems that Israel is using 10-20 interceptors per Iranian missile, and yet half of the Iranian missiles manage to hit their targets.
55. SET June 19, 2025 at 7:01 am

    I keep getting asked by both faceBorg and Google if I’m interested in their AI, even for faceBorg posts I’ve repeatedly both loved and shared. They’re playing defense by not having a “HELL NO” option! I’d rather use Hades, but have neither option.

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