Links 6/15/2025

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1. The Rev Kev June 15, 2025 at 7:20 am

   “Tucker turns on Trump: Ex-Fox News host blasts ‘complicit’ president for backing Israel after attacks on Iran”

   I bet that lots of conservative Americans and MAGA voters are souring on Trump. He promised to be a peacemaker but he is still overseeing a genocide for personal profit, helped enable an attack on Russia’s nuclear triad and has now helped Israel attack Iran that threatens to drag America into yet another unnecessary war. It’s not just Tucker Carlson but other people like MGT in Congress and I notice the guys at The Duran are giving up on him. They’re not calling him an idiot – but they are more or less calling him an idiot.
   1. Unironic Pangloss June 15, 2025 at 7:59 am

      and replace trump with who? Someone who is not eligible for social security and actually comptent and prudent, lol?

      Trump in the White House and burning down the village is currently the Dem’s only strategy for 2028. Good thing that there is a deep bench of competent, culturally-median, peacenik state governors raedy to swoop in and get votes of disaffected voters.

      and jt’s looking like Trump is waking up to the fact that he F—ed big time by letting BiBi drag him into the Sandbox. a whole summer of (min) >30% higher petrol prices will do that. Of coruse, Trump will spin it and say that this was his 4–D plan all along
      1. Mikel June 15, 2025 at 8:32 am

         Peter Thiel’s boy Vance is younger.
         1. Nikkikat June 15, 2025 at 10:42 am

            Yeah, and that’s the next guy the billionaires bring in to run stuff. We are NOT represented!
            We have let everything be taken over by tech billionaires. They own it all. Meanwhile, everybody’ downloads apps and goes on X and Facebook, shops at Amazon and makes them richer, while they have moved on to take over our weak fake democracy, saturated it with fake religion and we have no kings protest in place of anything real. This odious guy
            Is fake too. There are no more tariffs, no more raids and the stock market has been taken over by his bitcoin nonsense. This idiot is just using his bullying tactics and calling it negotiating. He has nothing but bluster. Now he has caused an oil crisis, we didn’t learn anything when we took away Russian oil from the EU?
            What idiots
      2. chris June 15, 2025 at 9:54 am

         That is the question, isn’t it? Trump was seen as the alternative to Mr. “NOTHING WILL FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGE” Biden and Ms. “I’M NOT GOING TO DO ANYTHING DIFFERENT” Harris. If Team Blue is inserted into the situation, or given more control over it, we’re still stuck with Ukraine, Gaza and now, Iran. It’s clear that none of the Republican voices arguing against more involvement with Iran will be put in greater positions of authority unless something dramatic occurs. I don’t think there’s a good reason to suspect Vance will be much different than a NATO hardliners now. Even Tulsi gave up some of her core interests to be in this administration. If the Xitter traffic from my more liberal friends is to be believed, she’s still getting excoriated for being a Russian shill and also now Pro-Tehran.

         I think the only thing that is going to stop all this insanity is to cut off the source of the madness. Unfortunately, that is my country. We’re the source of misery. We’re supporting needless conflict. We’re insisting on irreconciliable positions as a basis for diplomatic negotiations. We’re the ones who insist on maintaining the status quo while the world cries for something different. We’re even doing it over the objections from our own citizens. We will destroy the world rather than accept a new multipolar reality without us in control of Empire.

         I’m still haunted by something Adolph Reed said years ago. “We didn’t vote ourselves into this situation. We won’t be able to vote our way out.” It is frightening to consider what forms of violence we may see in this country as the need for change becomes ever greater and the Elite resistance becomes ever more draconian. Maybe the next Gaza will be LA? Or Philadelphia? I don’t know. But I do know this – Trump and those who want to support these actions will not accept a summer of protest and rising action against their position. They’ll make an example out of some group soon enough.
      3. duckies June 15, 2025 at 11:05 am

         and replace trump with who?

         Randomly chosen US citizen.
         1. artemis June 15, 2025 at 12:58 pm

            There’s a lot to be said for sortition.
            1. Adam Eran June 15, 2025 at 1:33 pm

               I’ve read some local government in Belgium did this. Any word on how it turned out?
               1. Kouros June 15, 2025 at 3:55 pm

                  For the sortition to work, it needs a burn in time.
         2. JP June 15, 2025 at 2:56 pm

            There’s a lot to be said for competence and experience, not to mention familiarity with the big picture and maybe FX markets. That is not to say any of our electeds have those capacities but the world is not a small town that any random citizen has a working knowledge of. Random response an uncertainty is exactly what sortition would look like on a global stage.
         3. Unironic Pangloss June 15, 2025 at 4:34 pm

            I would enact parliamentary sortition with 1000 MPs.

            If I could be dictator for a day.
         4. ChrisRUEcon June 15, 2025 at 8:07 pm

            “Run Tucker Run!”

            LOL

            … but I recall some years ago, there was some curious reporting about a post-general-election dinner meetup between #GWB and Tucker.

            Who knows?!
      4. Roland June 15, 2025 at 3:02 pm

         It’s never less than twice as hard to stop a war than it is to start one. Usually, it’s many times harder.

         Trump did not start the Ukraine War. Trump tried to restart negotiations. Trump is by far the most dovish of any of the Western leaders, to the extent that he is often accused of colluding with Russia (have people already forgotten that?) It is true, of course, that Trump offered a major concession to Russia, almost immediately after his return to office, when he pledged to keep Ukraine out of NATO. What else could you expect from a “Putin puppet” ?

         But the Russians have raised their demands, which now much exceed their stated goals from 2022. Russia rejected a ceasefire offer. I guess they were loath to relinquish their glorious progress, of approximately one hamlet per week.

         When it comes to Palestine: did the people governing Gaza ever ask Donald Trump for his opinion, before they embarked on their little adventure back in 2023? I rather doubt it.

         There is a lot of blame to go around, for the horrid slaughter that Israel has made in Gaza. The cleanest hands feel stained, even if we never touched it, for the blot is upon all our human history. Trump’s share of that blame, nevertheless, is much smaller than Netanyahu’s, Sinwar’s, or Biden’s.
         1. Kouros June 15, 2025 at 4:01 pm

            On what cool aid are you?

            – Trump started arming Ukraine in earnest;
            – Trump took US out of JPCOA and paving the way for the present situation;
            – Trump expressed support for ethnic cleansing of Gaza;
            – Trump endorsed (tacitly) the UKR attack (supported likely by USUKISR) on Russian strategic nuclear muscle.
            – Trump recognized Israel annexation of Golan Heights.

            If Palestinians would have asked Trump, he would have told them to go and die.

            Why am I wasting my time with you in the first place?
            1. jonboinAR June 15, 2025 at 9:06 pm

               …but you should see the other guys! Me, I’ve never trusted PDJT with foreign policy since he took the US out of the JPCOA. Looked like someone’s puppet, to me. Otherwise, I donno. I feel like a dog chained in the middle of the yard in a bad lightning storm right now.
               1. eg June 15, 2025 at 10:47 pm

                  A good friend of mine, now deceased, sadly, would describe that sort of exposure with the wonderfully evocative “jackass in a hailstorm.”

                  I miss him …😕
         2. mahna June 15, 2025 at 4:25 pm

            It is true, of course, that Trump offered a major concession to Russia, almost immediately after his return to office, when he pledged to keep Ukraine out of NATO.

            Funniest thing I’ve read all day. He would have more success in selling it to Russians if he had thrown in the Brooklyn Bridge into the package.

            I guess they were loath to relinquish their glorious progress, of approximately one hamlet per week.

            LOL, this is some pure NAFO stuff.
   2. Arby June 15, 2025 at 8:03 am

      Some significant – indeed, electorally critical – portion of Trump voters wanted a 180 degree change in policy draining US resources for foreign entanglements of no benefit to them. Instead, they are realizing that the 180 was simply an election move on its way to a 360 degree turn back to continuation of Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump and Biden policy in this regard. Charlie Brown, Lucy always pulls away the football.
      1. The Rev Kev June 15, 2025 at 8:17 am

         Obviously they took a lesson from 360 degree Annalena Baerbock here-

         https://www.azerbaycan24.com/en/putin-must-turn-360-degrees-german-fm/
      2. Carolinian June 15, 2025 at 8:34 am

         Actually it isn’t clear what Trump is going to do. He talked to Putin yesterday and that may have some bearing on the change from “excellent” re the Israeli attacks to last night’s (so far) refusal to join the war with bunker busters. After all before he said excellent he said he didn’t want the Israelis to attack.

         And if it’s about Netanyahu showing who is in charge of US policy by defying Trump then how will that affect the egotistical Trump? Then there’s the reality that if the US does join in there’s still no guarantee of victory and considerable likelihood of economic chaos.

         Of course if Israel’s desired “regime change” in Iran had taken place then Trump would be the first to take credit for it. It didn’t, so what will he do?
         1. The Rev Kev June 15, 2025 at 9:40 am

            Has Trump been making any public comments the past day or two? Yeah, he was at the parade but that is not the same as talking to a bunch of reporters. From down here, I have the impression that he has gone into radio silence mode but I could be wrong.
            1. Socal Rhino June 15, 2025 at 10:42 am

               Iran claims to have hit military targets throughout Israel. Israel is confirming the attacks within Tel Aviv presumably to claim attacks on civilians but also because too many cell phone witnesses. My opening page on MS Edge, normally a reliable source of approved narrative spin, included a report expressing alarm at the first downing of 5th generation F35s and speculation that the program may be halted.

               I have seen speculation that Iranian attacks to this point were to confirm targeting and will be followed by more concentrated salvos to destroy rather than damage targets.

               I suspect that Trump is gauging the direction the wind is blowing.
         2. Yves Smith June 15, 2025 at 10:05 am

            It’s not just that. It appears that Israel was confident its cyberattack on Iran’s air defense system would keep it out of operation for several days. But Iran got it back up in 10 hours.

            So now Iran is hitting Israel pretty hard and not taking too much damage. The attack on the gas field made for some nice explosions but only damaged a small part of the operation, for instance. By contrast:

            2/
            in tonight's Iranian attack, Israel’s will face a fuel problem.

            This successful attack on Haifa’s refinery is a strategic blow to Israel's economic and military backbone.

            The fact that Israel remains silent on the impacts on its refinery, and has not yet said anything
            –>👇

            — David Roth-Lindberg (@RothLindberg) June 14, 2025
            1. The Rev Kev June 15, 2025 at 10:10 am

               If fuel shortages get really bad in Israel, they may have to adopt the Patton tactic of draining the fuel from four fifths of their tanks to keep the other fifth going. So if the Iron Dome is proving once again to be an Iron Colander, then what is the point of a Golden Dome for the US?
               1. chris June 15, 2025 at 11:42 am

                  The point of the Golden Dome is to give people nice bonuses. Potomac real estate and private schools are expensive.
                  1. .Tom June 15, 2025 at 4:24 pm

                     If the US economy depends on military Keynesianism then creating artificial demand with this silly star wars v2 might be better than creating demand by starting a new war every 6 months.
            2. ilsm June 15, 2025 at 10:47 am

               US DoD has large fuel reserves positioned in the Mediterranean. IDF will be okay for fuel needs.

               Israel economy not so good.
               1. The Rev Kev June 15, 2025 at 10:53 am

                  The US can offload all the fuel to the Israeli military that they want, but as soon as those ships clears the dock – kaboom!
                  1. ilsm June 15, 2025 at 11:05 am

                     Oilers would likely be Greek merchant tankers.

                     Offloading berths should be targeted.
                  2. Martin Oline June 15, 2025 at 3:40 pm

                     Ships are fairly hard targets to hit at sea because they are moving. I wonder how hard they are to hit when they are moored at a dock?
                     1. chris June 15, 2025 at 4:18 pm

                        With missiles? Yes, I agree. With drone swarms as the Yemenis have been doing? No, not really.
                     2. ambrit June 15, 2025 at 4:38 pm

                        For tankers at sea, think submarines.
                        For Iranian subs: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/meet-submarines-make-irans-navy-serious-threat-167460
                        The offloading facilities will be the best targets to hit if economic damage is desired.
               2. ISL June 15, 2025 at 1:46 pm

                  If the offloading port equipment is smashed, I’m not sure how that works.
            3. Lefty Godot June 15, 2025 at 1:04 pm

               Hezbollah could’ve targeted Haifa and the oil infrastructure last year. Did they just lack missiles with enough weight to do meaningful damage? The Resistance seems to have some unstated escalation ladder they’re following, maybe in order to forestall a crazed nuclear response from Israel, but the practical effect has been that Israel has not been deterred by the previous levels that have been reached. If anything, Israel seems to have gotten more confident that they can proceed with all their projects at once: the Gaza genocide, ethnic cleansing of the West Bank, invasions of Syria and southern Lebanon, and now attacking Iran (a long-time dream that they’ve had). The current war seems like it has to end in regime change for somebody, either Iran or Israel. So it’s hard to see how either of the two countries can back off now.
               1. vao June 15, 2025 at 1:15 pm

                  “Israel seems to have gotten more confident that they can proceed with all their projects at once: the Gaza genocide, ethnic cleansing of the West Bank, invasions of Syria and southern Lebanon, and now attacking Iran (a long-time dream that they’ve had).”

                  And, let us not forget, bombing Yemen.
                  1. hk June 15, 2025 at 1:29 pm

                     And prick the bear in Ukraine…
            4. hk June 16, 2025 at 12:19 am

               Israel seems to be doing pretty good job censoring the extent of its losses. The number of deaths seem rather oddly small. Other than a few installations in or near population centers, not quite credibly few reports of missile impacts. Given what we saw of the impacts, I’d imagine there had been at least a few more big hits…
               1. Yves Smith June 16, 2025 at 12:23 am

                  You need to check out Twitter. Plenty of vids showing a lot of Iran missiles getting through. This is representative:

                  Iran's retaliatory strikes are more powerful than expected
                  – Why is there a tendency in the West to underestimate opponents? Iran's "regime" would collapse, Russia could easily be defeated and their economy is weak, China cannot innovate, etc.
                  – These assumptions are not the… pic.twitter.com/vQQYOZn1DO

                  — Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen) June 15, 2025

                  Nearly all missiles Iran fired in this wave were 20-30 year old models, but watch the single newer-generation missile that struck Haifa. Then watch the electricity go out.

                  Wait until Iran empties its old stockpile. Then things will get more interesting for the genocidal regime. pic.twitter.com/OJnggRZhPW

                  — Seyed Mohammad Marandi (@s_m_marandi) June 14, 2025
               2. The Rev Kev June 16, 2025 at 12:45 am

                  Israel is the sprinter in competition with the endurance runner getting a spectacular start. Let’s say we wait awhile. :)
         3. Kouros June 15, 2025 at 4:11 pm

            John Helmer and Russian analysts have a different take on it.
            https://johnhelmer.net/how-to-say-in-russian-happy-birthday-donald-happy-us-army-and-flag-day/

            From the get go it seems Russian position will be that Iran will not be willing to fight, so they don’t seem keen to uphold their minimal traty obligations with Iran. As opposed to China who stated that they will support Iran.

            Sorry Russia, but in order to fight the type of war launched at Iran, one needs adequat weapons and information. Are you going to provide some, plus intelligence? If not, what will remain for Russia will be to start acting like Israel, threatening everyone around with their weapons and nukes and living in an autarchy. See how long that will last.

            Helmer had an article some months ago about Putin’s prodigious memory. And one of the conclusions was that a prodigious memory does not equate intelligence and wisdom. And I can vouch for this. My dad had an exceptional memory.

            My dad was so great, knew so many people, their names, their spouses, kids, birthdays, etc., and due to his jovial nature, ended up elected as “independent” city councilor in my hometown, a city of about 220,000 people.

            Was he necessarily smart and wise and used his tallents intelligently in life? Heck no!
         4. bertl June 15, 2025 at 5:18 pm

            Russia, Iran, China, North Korea and Pakistan might relish a war against NATO, the settler colony, and the rest of the Collective West when it seems that all the Western ducks are in a row.

            Either the Hand of God has created this moment or the leaders of the Collective West are intellectually and morally incapacitated as an unforeseen function of Long Covid operating in conjunction with highly credentialed, semi-educated, unread minds incapable of empathy beyond the reflection in the mirror and are programmed only to do the dumbest thing. Or maybe Western electors like to live dangerously and deliberately select stupid, incompetent psychopaths for the hell of it.

            The ways of the world are indeed mysterious.
         5. Frank June 15, 2025 at 9:58 pm

            The US is already involved in the war against Iran as is other NATO members.
         6. ArvidMartensen June 15, 2025 at 11:21 pm

            Looks to me like Trump’s MO is that he talks like a reasonable guy fond of negotiating.

            Until somebody disobeys him. And then he tries to destroy them.
            And if it blows back on him, he denies it was him.

            I do hope Putin has worked that out. Otherwise I can see him being put out to pasture.

            Trump must have been a cracker of a developer, all the industry must love him.
      3. ilsm June 15, 2025 at 10:21 am

         Trump conned my part of maga.

         Lies all around! Then he scams Russia and Iran to keeping doing HRC foreign entanglements

         USA is run by con artists scamming everyone
         1. Michael Fiorillo June 15, 2025 at 2:50 pm

            If “my part of maga” is surprised by Trump’s dishonesty and capriciousness, given his half-century long record of same, well, I really don’t know what to say.

            Sure, Hillary and Biden and the Dems suck; that doesn’t change what Trump is and has always been.
         2. Young June 15, 2025 at 7:53 pm

            Sunday night funnies…

            CENTCOM guy: Mr. President, give me a month, I will destroy Yemen.
            TACO: I’ll give you TWO months.

            Sixty days later,

            TACO: STOP. We won.

            Nutty guy: Mr. President, give me three days, I will destroy Iran.
            TACO: I’ll give you a week.

            Three days later,

            Nutty guy: HELP!!!!
            1. mega June 16, 2025 at 8:03 am

               When WWI started, “experts” expected it to be over til’ Christmas. Nowdays, nobody has time for that, and the norm is three days.
   3. Mikel June 15, 2025 at 8:32 am

      If people want change, they better figure out how to remove the influence of people that keep the mess the same across all administrations.
      1. Duke of Prunes June 15, 2025 at 9:29 am

         Somehow, no matter who is the president, we get more war.

         I still remember Bush 2 campaigning as the candidate for peace.
         1. The Rev Kev June 15, 2025 at 9:34 am

            Putin himself has said that he has dealt with several Presidents now and it does not matter who they are. That they might make an agreement but after they talk with the DC insiders they do exactly what those DC insiders want and renege on any agreement. Negotiating with an American President is thus pointless.
            1. NakedEmperor June 15, 2025 at 10:55 am

               Are you referring to the men in dark suits wearing black and blue ties and carrying briefcases who visit the White House soon after inauguration? Every president receives such visits. As the Senior Senator from Goldman Sachs stated quite eloquently – “the security agencies have six ways from Sunday to get you”. Self preservation mandates that POTUS does as he is told. They are richly rewarded down the road. The Clintons and Obamas can attest to this.
               1. The Rev Kev June 15, 2025 at 7:16 pm

                  Are they the same ones that show each President a 16mm black and white film of the Kennedy assassination – as taken from the grassy knoll?
         2. Bsn June 15, 2025 at 10:52 am

            Yep, add me to the chorus of people disappointed in Trump. A few of his appointments are doing “fair”, but only that. Then again, we “coulda been a contender” with Harris. Until the deep state (CIA, FBI, CDC, DHS, Silicon Valley……) are crushed, we’re in for some serious trouble.
         3. none June 15, 2025 at 4:59 pm

            I hear echoes of Bush 1. “Read my lips, no new wars” -> get ready for a new war.
      2. Glen June 15, 2025 at 1:34 pm

         As Warren Buffet acknowledged all the way back in 2006, his class won the class war and run America:

         In Class Warfare, Guess Which Class Is Winning
         https://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/26/business/yourmoney/26every.html

         “There’s class warfare, all right,” Mr. Buffett said, “but it’s my class, the rich class, that’s making war, and we’re winning.”

         They are very fearful of significant change because it could (actually should) cause them to be less wealthy and powerful. But exactly how that ties into foreign policy, and the security state is less direct other than war making (win or lose) and an amp’ed up security state will be extremely profitable for them. (Except for the rich donating generously to have Trump support Israel no matter what – that seems REAL direct.)

         But it’s all sorta backfiring on our elites now so expect them to crush average Americans some more (not realizing that it was the preceding forty years of crushing average Americans that started it.)
   4. Kontrary Kansan June 15, 2025 at 11:59 am

      Mercouris dropped Trump, but LOVES JD Vance. In recent months he has moved from commenting based on others’ analysis to speculating and bloviating.
      1. Mikel June 15, 2025 at 1:07 pm

         Battling “Trump” could be like when people say, “They’re fighting the last war.”
   5. St Jacques June 15, 2025 at 5:49 pm

      Want to fix the country? Then make a real estate developer/reality tv show celebrity and all round bs artiste president – what could possibly go wrong????

      Oh wait….
      1. St Jacques June 15, 2025 at 6:08 pm

         btw Americans could have voted for a decent, thoughtful third party candidate like Dr Jill Stein instead of a brain dead puppet of vested interests like Biden or the current bs con artiste. How many voted for Jill????? Americans need to stop living in denial and take a good hard look at themselves in the mirror.
         1. ambrit June 15, 2025 at 6:39 pm

            I voted Greens, so, Dr. Jill, (the other Jill.) I was one of 1871 voters in Mississippi who voted for the Greens in 2024, out of 1,228,008 votes cast. Get the picture?
            Trump got 61% of the vote in a state that is 50% Black. So, some of those brothers and sisters had to have voted for the Orange Satan. (The general turnout was 65% of eligible voters. About average for the past few election cycles.)
         2. mega June 16, 2025 at 8:19 am

            Americans could have voted whomever, because it would not change anything of importance. It would be just a question of time for president Stein to say that “Israel has the right to defend itself”, and that “Epstein indeed killed himself”, and personally meet the current flavor of democratic headchoppers. On the other hand, the Oval Office would probably have different drapes, and less cocaine lying around, which would be enough of a “lesser evil” for some.
2. none June 15, 2025 at 8:02 am

   Best article I’ve seen so far about the Minnesota shooter is in Wired: https://www.wired.com/story/shooting-minnesota-melissa-hortman-vance-boelter/
   1. Unironic Pangloss June 15, 2025 at 8:35 am

      An ostensibly pro-MAGA (alleged) perp. shoots a Dem. legislator for voting no to an anti-MAGA spending bill?

      oh boy….this one is going to produce more tin foil than a smelter
      1. divadab June 15, 2025 at 11:00 am

         Take a look at his resume, posted by Ken Klippenstein. He’s a mediocrity, bumping around the food industry in a series of 3-5 year jobs with little career growth, finally in 2021 starting “Red Lion”, which seems to be a one man outfit, a consultancy like those set up by the recently fired. Phd from a defunct Catholic University.

         It seems he’s an anti-abortion Catholic, but also in favor of State benefits for non-documented immigrants – which seems to have been the trigger for these shootings. I wonder about his mental health, and who potentially exploited him or triggered this – is this an MK Ultra op?
   2. Yves Smith June 15, 2025 at 10:07 am

      Wowsers, the resume and interests smack of someone who at his core does not know who he is.

      And saying he expects to die plus his security background means he will try hard to take as many people out as he can when he is finally cornered.
      1. Watt4Bob June 15, 2025 at 11:48 am

         Wannabe Eric Prince.

         I find it interesting how many Trump supporters are involved with the troubles associated with precarious businesses, too much debt for instance, much of it undoubtedly incurred maintaining appearances. Beautiful property, fancy new vehicles, etc.

         Boelter strikes me as a “Fake it ’till you make it .” kind of guy.

         I’ve got news for Vance, Eric Prince was born on third base, his dad was a hugely successful auto parts manufacturer back when the USA was the world capital of manufacturing.

         Boelter bounced around the world following a passion for guns and pushing people around, what justifies his expectation of a idlic life surrounded by the Garden of Eden, all built on protecting the ultra rich, and violent repression of other, not-so-rich Americans?

         My guess is Mr. Boelter got in deep debt trying to make his fantasy come true, and then worked real hard to pass the blame to anyone but himself.

         There’s a lot of folks like him out there, chomping at the bit to start ‘eliminating’ their problems.

         A bunch of them showed up to counter the “No KINGS” protest in St. Paul yesterday. They showed up waring gas-masks and carrying the stars-and-stripes.

         The local studio news guys kept asking the live reporter if she could read the signs they carried, but there was absolutely no effort to answer that question, and in fact the news team seemed to have been advised to ignore/downplay the possible tension between the two groups separated by a DMZ enforced by law officers.

         I’ll take a stab at answering the question; those people wearing gas-masks and carrying the stars-and-stripes were there to confront those they consider their enemy, and if we don’t somehow figure out how to change this dynamic, those folks are going get passed the police lines.

         There may be no police lines, in fact the police may just join them.
3. Carolinian June 15, 2025 at 8:06 am

   More on the new war which is, I think, the only real story this weekend (no link on Trump’s flop of a parade?).

   https://scheerpost.com/2025/06/15/juan-cole-irans-hypersonic-missiles-hit-israeli-refinery-military-sites-as-israel-does-the-same-to-tehran/

   Both last night’s Simplicius and Larry Johnson give additional details on the success of Iranian attacks and suggest “escalation dominance” has now passed into the hands of the Iranians. The Israelis now admit that they can’t take out the Iranian nuclear program without US bunker buster bombs and US airplanes to carry them. If they wreck the Iranian oil fields then Iran will have no reason not to close the Persian Gulf and make the world economy the victim of Netanyahu’s hubris.

   Whereas the apparent and likely increasing success of the Iranians with precision strikes on Israel’s many vulnerable targets mean that those who are so free in the bombing others are in deep trouble and have no one to blame but themselves –no matter how the NYT chooses to spin it.
   1. The Rev Kev June 15, 2025 at 8:26 am

      Gunna make a prediction here. The Russians have estimated that there are about 3,000 Patriot missiles alone in the world so Israel has only a part of that total. And to shoot down a missile, typically two are fired off at each target. So at what point does Israel start running out of Patriot, THAD, etc. missiles? So my prediction is that when Israel is about out of missiles, they will generously agree to a ceasefire for humanitarian reasons and bring peace to the region. At that point Trump will jam himself into the proceedings so that he can claim that he negotiated a peace between Iran and Israel and how they should really give him the Nobel peace prize for his troubles. Nobody will be fooled what Israel and Trump are doing but a peace is called – until the next time.
      1. Carolinian June 15, 2025 at 8:42 am

         I believe I read in Simplicius that the Iranians already destroyed the THAAD guarding the “Israeli Pentagon,” which was hit. You are correct that the Iranians supposedly have a lot more offensive missiles than the Israelis or even their US arms suppliers have defensive missiles.

         Of course the Israelis aren’t being forthcoming about what is going on and to the extent that they do give info there’s no reason to treat it as objectively true. Much of the upstairs Simplicius seems to depend on social media.
         1. bertl June 15, 2025 at 5:31 pm

            Or the Iranians may look around and see the disasters the settler colonists have created over the past 75 years, take a leaf out of their book and turn the colony into another Gaza and say bye-byes and good riddance. Then the few survivors will be able to claim that Netanyahu was truly a prophet and, one fine day, some benighted soul will write The Book of Bibi.
      2. Skip Intro June 15, 2025 at 10:04 am

         The parallels with Ukraine continue. The time to negotiate a ceasefire is when the unwinnable war of attrition turns undeniably against you. Israel doesn’t have that much infrastructure to spare, and they might not be able to rely on help from their neighbors for power or fuel.
         1. nippersdad June 15, 2025 at 10:33 am

            Was it Simplicius that said the attacks on Teheran came from Israeli camps in Azerbaijan? I don’t remember, but I wonder if it wouldn’t be prudent for the Iranians to cut off the head of the Israeli energy snake at the source to make a point. IIRC, Israel gets most of its oil from Azerbaijan via a pipeline through Turkey. Turkey has made a lot of noise about Gaza, but has done nothing.

            Get that pipeline and you could have three birds with one stone. Just a thought.
            1. Yves Smith June 15, 2025 at 10:46 am

               Yes, you have it right. That was Simplicius.

               Prof. Marandi takes issue with the Israeli claim to have bases in Iran for a different reason, albeit definitional. He says Israel hired people on What’s App or Telegram and paid them in bitcoin. This was not Israelis camped out in Iran.

               See at 12:10 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bzgC-alNlo at
               1. jonboinAR June 15, 2025 at 9:24 pm

                  Someone at the “bar” at MoA was saying that virtually everything in Iran is negotiable.
         2. ilsm June 15, 2025 at 10:41 am

            US has huge stocks of gasoline and jet fuel in Mediterranean to fight a modern war. It will be sent to Tel Aviv.

            US has deployable fighter units….

            I remember Oct 1973, this time US has less tech advantage to give,

            But US can enjoy oil embargo like 1974.

            ReTHAAD, destroyed the system is longer range, although could “tune” for cueing close defenses. I think it is rarely used for point defense, that is usually Patriot, and ARAAM based interception.
            1. Revenant June 15, 2025 at 4:55 pm

               Armchair warlord or Witte Sergei have posted before that the US Navy lacks fuel ships and at sea refuelling capacity. They can send a tanker.. but Iran might give it a warm welcome….
         3. Lefty Godot June 15, 2025 at 1:19 pm

            The similarity in the m.o. for Ukraine’s attack on Russia’s strategic bombers and Israel’s attack on Tehran and Iran’s air defenses is not exactly a fingerprint, but it does make you wonder if some of the self-described months long planning for both drone attacks came from same great brains. (Cough, cough, not saying Mike India SIX or anything like that, necessarily.)
            1. The Rev Kev June 15, 2025 at 7:24 pm

               Said in a comment that went into the ether that Russians have noted the similarities of both of the attacks and are now looking at Mossad hard. And that World Likud did declare Russia to be an enemy of Israel about two years ago
      3. NakedEmperor June 15, 2025 at 11:02 am

         This is all very interesting. Scott Ritter on a recent video said that Iran is doomed. That Israel has destroyed all of their air defenses and that Iran will be very fortunate to retain its theocracy. In addition, Ritter claims that if Iran attacks American bases in the region the US will respond in a massive manner that will bring Iran to its knees. The fog of war is very thick.
         1. Yves Smith June 15, 2025 at 11:13 am

            Professor Marandi reported from Tehran that the Israeli strikes are way down after Iran got its air defense system back. Israel made a cyberattack that was expected to keep it down for days but Iran got it back up in hours.

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bzgC-alNlo

            He also said a lot of the Israel hits were on decoys:

            🚨🇮🇱💥🇮🇷 Is Iran deceiving Israel with decoys?

            Tehran University’s Prof. Seyed Mohammad Marandi claims:
            "Israel believes it's targeting Iranian missile and radar sites — but most are decoys."

            He points out the lack of secondary explosions as proof.#IranVsIsrael #DecoyWarfare… pic.twitter.com/SjyYOqxPq7

            — War Doctrine (@War_Doctrine) June 14, 2025

            Ritter can be a hysteric and his view on Iran is really warped. He has said repeatedly that they deserve to be attacked for enriching uranium to 60%. After what happened to Gaddafi after he gave up his WMD?
            1. urdsama June 15, 2025 at 12:05 pm

               RE Ritter’s attitude to Iran deserving to be attacked due to its uranium enrichment program, could that be due to his previous job as a weapons inspector?

               I’m not saying his attitude makes real world sense in light of how the US (and by extension the West) treats nations looking to acquire nuclear weapons versus those that already have them. But perhaps he sees any expansion of nation states with nuclear weapons as completely unacceptable and to be avoided at any cost.
      4. urdsama June 15, 2025 at 11:52 am

         Strongly disagree about the peace path.

         The recent sham nuclear talks are the Minsk II moment for Iran. I have no idea how Iran will proceed, but I feel any peace talks now with the West, especially involving the US or UK, will lead to regime change in Iran.

         Also, don’t rule out that the Israeli government is so unhinged as to try and use nukes to take Iran down when it appears all hope is lost.
   2. Aurelien June 15, 2025 at 9:01 am

      Has there been any hard news about the alleged loss of two Israeli F35s and the capture of a female pilot which was giving Martyanov such orgasms yesterday?
      1. The Rev Kev June 15, 2025 at 9:15 am

         If it actually happened, you won’t hear it from the Israelis. And again, if it happened, the Iranians would be trying to hide her because of Israel’s Hannibal doctrine.
      2. Unironic Pangloss June 15, 2025 at 9:24 am

         no. apart from random articles from (well-meaning, i guess) Z-tier sites (often based in the subcontinent and geared to click/engagement farming); it’s a cottage industry

         another mideast rumour that spiraled.
      3. auskalo June 15, 2025 at 10:08 am

         https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2025/06/14/749816/Iran-air-defense-forces-Iranian-Army-shoot-down-f-35-fighter-jet-
         1. Unironic Pangloss June 15, 2025 at 10:24 am

            the “footage”showed on Iranian TV to acxompany that story had “uncanny valley” errors likely from AI image generation.

            Show me a video of random hinterland Iranians dancing around a flaming plane carcass and I’ll open my mind. a bit. Show me a live Israeli, I-ll believe.

            I highly doubt that any IDF plane penetrated far into Iranian airspace. IDF claims of air supremacy are likely puffery. i have no problem changing my mind
         2. Unironic Pangloss June 15, 2025 at 10:37 am

            don’t think that Press TV purposely tried to mislead. (plenty of real news to repor rather, like any western news outlet, a journalist saw something on social media and ran with the story without vetting cuz she wanted the scoop.

            and didn’t have the herewithal to ask critical questions of the image that she saw.
            1. Unironic Pangloss June 15, 2025 at 10:39 am

               every side is obfuscating, flat out lying and lying via omission.

               this is the 1st Great Info War
      4. Socal Rhino June 15, 2025 at 10:31 am

         Martyanov gets under your skin?
         1. divadab June 15, 2025 at 11:03 am

            Lol – small doses only!
         2. Aurelien June 15, 2025 at 2:08 pm

            He’s like a lot of pundits. Good on a narrow range of issues, but increasingly less valuable as he gets away from his core expertise. Knows nothing about politico-military strategy.
            1. Polar Socialist June 15, 2025 at 3:00 pm

               And yet Clarity Press has published four Martyanov’s books about politico-military strategy. Have you read any?
               1. Michaelmas June 15, 2025 at 8:40 pm

                  Polar Socialist: And yet Clarity Press has published four Martyanov’s books about politico-military strategy. Have you read any?

                  I have.

                  For background: I used to have to report on global risk. My assessment has long been that the US has entered the Norma Desmond phase of military hegemony, that in many areas Russian kit is superior to US — in rocketry and EW, notably — and that life in the US for most people will only worsen, which is why I left it four years ago since I could live comfortably in central London instead. A quarter-century ago, I wrote articles predicting the rise of the kind of net-centric drone warfare we’re seeing today and seventeen years ago I wrote other articles saying that the democratization of missile tech was arguably the dominant factor in warfare going forward.

                  I was also aware that Martyanov had some background in Soviet-era subs, or some such. On that basis, I figured the man would know something and was curious what he had to say.

                  I gave up after one and and a half chapters, having decided — on the basis of the book I had, at least — that Martyanov was the worst kind of fool.

                  In the book I tried, he attempted to quantize — rigidly assign quantities to — areas of existential risk and strike capability that by definition can never be fully quantized, since they are inescapably dependent on contingency, human factors, and chance to a greater or lesser extent. When he did produce hard data, some of it was questionable. Next, he pulled equations mostly out of his fundament, and slotted the quantities that in many cases he’d made up into these equations, and finished by saying essentially, ‘Look, it’s science. I’ve proved it.”

                  The fake scientism reminded me of a neoliberal/neoclassical economist, actually. I’ve met people who were far higher up in the Soviet system who were far from fools. But to the extent that Martyanov is representative of the kind of mentality that the ranks of the Soviet miitary and navy were composed of, then it’s no surprise that the USSR fell.
         3. Simeon June 15, 2025 at 2:50 pm

            Well, he is Russian and openly pro-Russian.
            1. Martin Oline June 15, 2025 at 4:12 pm

               Just as David is British and doesn’t feel anyone without his school tie is qualified to opine.
               1. ambrit June 15, 2025 at 4:57 pm

                  You mean the character “David” from the film “Prometheus?” (Fassbinder did do a good Peter O’Toole there.)
         4. Kouros June 15, 2025 at 4:29 pm

            I can read his books but he has an anoying voice and an unrestrained superiority complex (it is almost like listening to Trump). And I find it creepy to see him posting clips with music he likes (meh…), usually with young prety females…
      5. NakedEmperor June 15, 2025 at 11:06 am

         If this tale is true one can imagine the anti-woke crowd and anti-DEI crowd to crow that a male pilot would never have been captured. Heck, Trump might even say that had he been president (a real one?) the planes would never have been shot down.
      6. Maxwell Johnston June 15, 2025 at 1:37 pm

         The only somewhat reputable outlet that has picked up on this alleged F35 shoot-down is Military Watch, and even they’re quoting Iranian sources:

         https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/iran-shoots-down-third-f35-captures-second-pilot

         Interestingly, Military Watch says that even if Israel has lost an F35 or two, that’s not so bad considering all the other factors in play. After all, USA had overwhelming air superiority over Germany 1944-45 and over Vietnam at all times, but still many aircraft were lost. There are no perfect weapons.

         Offspring No.2 follows all these war-related developments obsessively on RU social media (while he really ought to be studying for his exams, but I digress…..), and he thinks all this talk of F35s being shot down is nonsense.

         I await hard proof (or at least a furious Israeli demand to return the captured pilots). Until then, label me skeptical.
      7. bertl June 15, 2025 at 5:38 pm

         She may be donating interrogatory orgasms to the Revolutionary Guards for all we know. The colony has set the example in Gaza.
   3. Pearl Rangefinder June 15, 2025 at 9:37 am

      The Iranian’s seemed to have stumbled after the initial blow, which shouldn’t surprise us given the casualties among their upper military commands, but they recovered really quite quickly in my estimation with their own opening salvos of missiles. That says some good at least about their organizational ability to take hits and continue functioning. It should be noted as well that Iran doesn’t actually have much experience fighting a high tempo missile war (aside from combat drills presumably), they are pretty ‘green’, so the longer this drags on the more experience they are gonna get and the more effective their attacks against Israel are going to become.

      What’s worrisome to me is the comments from their foreign minister today which was essentially “if Israel stops the attacks so will we”, which suggests Iran’s Deciders are still somewhat hesitant and indecisive. Surprising, because one would think that Israel eliminating so many of their upper leadership in their opening decapitation strike would have ‘removed’ the indecisiveness by now, but apparently not? Whatever strategy Iran was following previously, it was obviously a massive failure and they need to switch to something else – their literal survival is at stake now. Even the Iranian public is hopping mad demanding action – and when even your own faction of shitLibs is screaming at you to hit back and hurry up and get the Bomb already…

      The only language the lunatics in Tel Aviv and their Western partners-in-genocide seem to understand is violence, they need to pay a price in blood and if Iran wants to re-establish deterrence they have to go full tilt ‘Untouchables” – ie: “you send ours to the hospital? We send yours to the morgue.”
      1. The Rev Kev June 15, 2025 at 9:45 am

         So far they have not taken a leaf out of the Israeli military playbook and declared every hospital to be an IDF command post and every block of flats nothing more than IDF barracks. But if Israel deliberately tries for a mass casualty event, then that could change.
      2. Samuel Conner June 15, 2025 at 10:13 am

         > which suggests Iran’s Deciders are still somewhat hesitant and indecisive.

         An alternative interpretation is that Iran (along with Russia and China, who are keenly interested to see their regional friend not be subjugated) leadership are patiently playing the long “game”. Time is on their side, if they can avoid regime collapse.

         Other considerations include respecting international law (thus, proportional tit-for-tat retaliation without objective escalation), not giving US an easy pretext to overtly join the conflict, not antagonizing RF and PRC who, over time, may help them to further strengthen their deterrence capabilities, and others that have not occurred to me.

         The pattern so far appears to me to be “we will strike targets in Israel analogous to the targets Israel strikes in Iran.” This keeps within the bounds of international law and also signals to Israel (and perhaps importantly, to the Israeli public) what it can expect to receive back from the next round of strikes into Iran. Israel chooses how bad it gets.

         It seems to me to be a wise policy.
      3. Polar Socialist June 15, 2025 at 10:16 am

         There’s what Iran says and there’s what Iran does. While stating their willingness for cease-fire, they are also provably preparing for a long conflict.

         Israel, on the other hand, can’t keep up this tempo of operations for than a few days anymore. Iran is yet to commit it’s main firepower.
         1. The Rev Kev June 15, 2025 at 10:27 am

            You’d think that after two years constantly fighting that their military would be getting frazzled and their actual equipment no longer at their best. The IDF was never designed for long term conflicts and yet they are still at it and finding new fronts to do their fighting on. Maybe the Israelis could adopt an American custom and tells IDF vets ‘Thank you for your service.’ For the Ultra-orthodox, they would be saying ‘Thanks for nothing.’
      4. vao June 15, 2025 at 10:45 am

         “Iran’s Deciders are still somewhat hesitant and indecisive. Surprising, because one would think that Israel eliminating so many of their upper leadership in their opening decapitation strike would have ‘removed’ the indecisiveness by now, but apparently not? “

         The Iranian regime has been in place for some 45 years, is led by gerontocrats, and for the past 25 years has been subject to internal pressure by its population to improve the standard of living, grant freedom of expression, and allow actual political alternatives.

         Just like in the late years of the USSR under Brezhnev, its leaders are more afraid of losing what they have than of gaining something new; they discount opportunities and emphasize risks; they prefer stability (actually stagnation) to change. Their modus operandi is to shake things as little as possible:

         1) The USA assassinates their top military commander? Just make a demonstration of their missile prowess against US bases in Iraq.

         2) Israel assassinates a Palestinian leader in their capital? Shake their fists at Netanyahu.

         3) Israel attacks them? Destroy some shacks on Israeli military bases.

         4) Israel attacks them again, wipes out their military hierarchy, destroys their energy infrastructure, slaughters their nuclear scientists? Make some pointed counter-attacks that are incomparably less destructive and effective than what was inflicted to them.

         Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen have demonstrated that against Israel, it is absolutely pointless to withhold punches. Had Iran immediately destroyed the Israeli air-refuelling aircraft fleet, destroyed the buildings where high-ranking Israeli generals live without regards for civilian casualties, and bombed the hell out of Israeli critical civilian infrastructure (just like Israel has been doing to all its enemies), then Iran would not be in its current predicament. I have read that Israel has just relocated some of its military headquarters under a civilian hospital; there is the opportunity to do what the Israelis did to every hospital in Gaza, with the same justification (after all, what is sauce for the Palestinian goose is sauce for the Zionist gander). No, none of this nice and yes, it violates international law, etc, but frankly, who cares?

         By the way: during the Brezhnev years, the USSR was very active outside its immediate sphere of influence, particularly in newly independent African countries, or in those fighting for their independence. The Soviet politburo was actually extremely reluctant to get involved, provide advanced weaponry, or send advisors. It was because of the much younger and bolder Cuban leadership that things got moving. Fidel Castro had a way to harass and berate the Soviet leaders until they agreed to supply African guerrillas with MANPADs, donate the necessary equipment to the Ethiopians so they can fight in Ogaden, provide all the required transport airplanes so that Cuban troops could be dispatched to fight the South Africans in Angola, etc. The Yemenis from Ansarallah might be equivalent nowadays, but I do not think they enjoy the same level of access and deference that Fidel Castro could take advantage of in Moscow.
         1. Pearl Rangefinder June 15, 2025 at 1:29 pm

            I don’t know what it is exactly, I was thinking along similar lines, maybe the top leadership is just too old? But note that Israel is lead by Yahoo who is no spring chicken, but of course the rest of the state bureaucracy is something else in terms of ages.

            Still, if that’s the reason, they are cautious to a suicidally incompetent degree. I mean, the foreign minister saying something like “awww shucks, we should have a time-outsies, if you don’t strike us we won’t strike you”, this is criminally incompetent and he should be removed immediately for damaging public morale. I was pulling my punches a bit earlier but honestly, it’s probably a miracle that this guy is even alive at this point, same goes for Khamenei. The Israeli’s even (tried?) assassinated one of the envoys to the Iranian-American negotiations! He might be dead or perhaps still alive according to Wikipedia, still unclear. Killing another country’s envoys in a sneak attack, and during a negotiation!? Unfathomable, crime against Zeus level of evil. And to top it off, pea brain Trump gleefully commenting afterwards that “ohh some of them won’t be coming back to the negotiations!”. Seriously. WTF is there left to talk about? The west has now made it a literal risk to your life to ‘negotiate’ with them by killing your negotiators.

            “If you don’t hit us and blah blah blah” jeezus, who is this yapping meant for? Just STFU. Your opponents have given you their message, crystal f**king clear. They want you dead, your country destroyed and turned into a failed state, probably with ISIS head choppers roaming the countryside, or worse. If their Pearl Harbor attack didn’t make that obvious, you are a true future Darwin award winner.

            The other Western poodles response to this with their offers of ‘mediation’ are just laughable given their complicity. The German’s might even have been helping the Israeli’s if what this OSINT account discovered is true on flightradar, when a Luftwaffe A400m seems to have accidentally turned on its radio transponders. But of course now the Europoodles are ready to ‘mediate’ they say. Notice not a single condemnation of Israel’s unprovoked attack or their assassinations, just mewlings about “we gotta de-escalate!!”. I guess Iran should just pick their next sacrificial victim for ‘negotiations’?
            1. vao June 15, 2025 at 1:54 pm

               “they are cautious to a suicidally incompetent degree.”

               They are not cautious, but diffident. They are apparatchiks comfortably ensconced in the various Iranian administrative organizations (political and military, but also economic), and hope that if they do not make too many (big) waves, everything will eventually be for the best after some occasional turbulences.

               I suspect a similar complacency contributed to dooming the Lebanese Hezbollah.

               Ansarallah leaders on the other hand are much less risk-averse. They are much younger, they have been fighting against overwhelming odds for quite many years now, and they do not hesitate to strike without being cowed by the inevitable retaliation.
            2. ISL June 15, 2025 at 1:55 pm

               The US/Israel negotiating tactic of deceit has a long history – form – in the (not-taught) Indian genocidal wars in North America. Hopefully, it is/will be taught in the global south. As I recall, Bugs Bunny used to say, All’s fair in love and war.

               Negotiating with the wet only makes sense as a delaying practice while preparing for the inevitable betrayal.
         2. bertl June 15, 2025 at 5:45 pm

            Now you have younger and bolder military leaders who feel fewer theological constraints on their behaviour and have no doubt been following the strategic and tactical innovations if the SMO in the Ukraine and have closely studied the development of Russian military doctrine.
      5. NakedEmperor June 15, 2025 at 11:27 am

         From my vantage point all roads lead to nuclear war. I live in a region of the world with lots of geologic fault lines. Over time stress builds up in these fault lines. Over time some minor quakes relieve some of this stress but stress continues to build nonetheless. Eventually, and it may take centuries, stress builds to such a point that the fault lines blow (as Scotty might say) and a magnitude 8 temblor results. These days there is stress building across a number of geo-political fault lines. Some “deals” can temporarily relieve some of this stress, but the various actors continue to add stress. At some point it will blow. In the nuclear age this means nuclear war. I see no other outcome as certain actors are completely unable to change their stripes, even if it leads to their own destruction.
      6. urdsama June 15, 2025 at 12:12 pm

         Armchair Warlord has an interesting theory that the military commanders who were killed by Israel were essentially hung out to dry, so to speak.

         https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1933717840311341408
         1. hk June 15, 2025 at 12:38 pm

            Idk about the generals bring hung out to dry, but I did wonder if they were being used as the “big bait” to catch the big fish. Was it Larry Johnson? There was a site that had the video of Iran’s chief nuclear scientist up where he was talkingbas if he’d die soon. That made me wonder.
         2. bertl June 15, 2025 at 5:54 pm

            I suspect they weren’t “hung out to dry” but had long accepted – and possibly rejoiced in – their likely martyrdom and had made adequate provision for their successors in anticipation.
            1. divadab June 15, 2025 at 6:47 pm

               Yes. They value their nation and its survival more than their own individual lives. Pro patria mori……we used to think this also.
   4. Michael Fiorillo June 15, 2025 at 3:03 pm

      I’m as eager as anyone on this site to see the Israelis get their comeuppance, but would urge a little skepticism about any news we’re fed, and a little respect for the enemy’s skill.

      The fog of war aside, remember what the Israelis did to Hezbollah? What they’ve done/are doing in Syria? Evil as they are, and as doomed long term by hubris and over-extension as they may be, these people are good at what they do and should not be under-estimated.

      We should be skeptical of our own biases, let alone those of the people feeding us information over the Internet, in the interest of defeating these monsters.
      1. hk June 15, 2025 at 8:33 pm

         My understanding is that, in Lebanon, Israel lost “militarily,” but won “politically.”. Huzb’ullah militia did as well as they did last time against IDF, but loss of the political leadership and the socio-political infrastructure made Huzb’ullah incapable of reacting nimbly on the political front.

         I’m not sure the situation is quite analogous, although not in Iran’s favor necessarily. As noted elsewhere by other commentors, Iran’s political leadership seems quite diffident and weak. It might be that the leaders who were killed, especially the military people, were more aggressive types and the diffidence is the expected outcome?
         1. NotThePilot June 15, 2025 at 11:56 pm

            I know this is the primary narrative, and it’s definitely amplified, but I’ve never really seen how the “Hezbollah is defeated” interpretation holds up. It all comes down to people assuming an organization that holds its fire and patiently soaks up petty enemy attacks is defeated. One thing that seems shared across all the Resistance Axis factions is a clear eye on converting strategic advantage into political wins.

            Hezbollah has a very high pain-tolerance internally, but I think when Israel started bombing random citizens, especially in Beirut, they made the decision to treat it like a hostage situation and close their front. That’s also why a primary focus in negotiating with the Lebanese government has been an integrated defense strategy, so that if & when they start fighting again, they know they have a widespread mandate from Lebanese society. Until that happens, they may as well bide their time, take on internal reforms, and rest up for the next round.

            The recent municipal election results (first ones in a long time) were interestingly downplayed outside of the more Resistance-y sources, but IIUC Hezbollah did really well. The “reformist” list on the other hand got absolutely annihilated, and there was one township where even the Lebanese Forces teamed up with Hezbollah to run a joint ticket rather than be shut-out.

            Also on the political front, Aoun and Salam’s honeymoon period seems to be rapidly unwinding. You have resentful Lebanese Forces or new-Syria sympathizers insisting otherwise, but that’s about it. While I think a lot of Lebanese like the new pres & PM personally, the promises of the “new Lebanon” the West is trying to impose (lubricated by gulf money) are already kind of rotting in the sun.
4. DJG, Reality Czar June 15, 2025 at 8:16 am

   Scheerpost: Horrifying Moment / beating up Padilla

   Here Is the twiXt from the Department of Fatherland Security:

   https://x.com/DHSgov/status/1933236707060822447

   So Kristi Noem is having her “don’t interrupt” moment: I’m Speaking, as Kamala Harris famously blabbed to the Arab-American protesters whose family members had been slaughtered in Palestine by the Client State.

   If USonions ever had any moral authority, it is gone — vanished — across liberals, Trumpisti, the tumescent Bolton Wing of neoconservatism, the Nancy Pelosi Investment Club, and Mayor Pete wannabees, from sea to shining sea.

   It is not quite yet America Year Zero, but the impetus is toward war on three fronts.

   Let war do its inexorable work: Recall Delphi. A great empire will fall.
   1. hk June 15, 2025 at 6:33 pm

      Fittingly, a Croesus leads us, against Cyrus’ people, no less.
      1. ambrit June 15, 2025 at 6:43 pm

         Croesus? More like another Crassus.
         1. hk June 15, 2025 at 8:38 pm

            Until I see the Iranians staging Bacchae with Trump’s head, I’ll go with Croesus. (I don’t know if he’ll become an advisor to the future Iranian leader who liberates the new (old) Jews (the Muslim and Christian ones, ie the palestinians) from the new Babylon (Israel) after his defeat, though.)
5. Deb Schultz June 15, 2025 at 8:30 am

   I was listening to CSPAN this morning and heard a caller from Ohio say repeatedly that the Minnesota assassin was a political appointee of Tim Walz at some point. The caller also said he watched TV all day.

   I wish the non-Fox media actually reported what Fox is saying to its audience. Instead of doing “fact checking” and assigning Pinocchio noses. Let the blue side actually see and read what the red MAGA people are being told every day by the likes of Greg Gutfeld et al.

   Thank you, Ken Klippenstein, for posting the Boelter resume and NC for providing that link.
   1. IM Doc June 15, 2025 at 10:00 am

      I wish the non-Fox media actually reported what Fox is saying to its audience.

      Sorry, I have seen too many Rachel Maddow viewers end up in coffins because of statements like this. I am just at the point in my life that I have made up my mind to not let this kind of thinking ride. As I said, it is costing people their lives.

      I, too, used to be a daily kos and MSNBC viewer. I too used to wonder how anyone could be such a Neanderthal that they believed what Fox was saying. And yes, there are serious problems even today with the slanting of the news that Fox viewers are seeing.

      To attempt to make any distinction between Fox and MSNBC/CNN/NYT at this point is the literal height of self-delusion. As I alluded to above, it actually killed people in COVID. Despite all evidence on the ground that the vaccines were not the promised silver bullet of complete immunity, for MONTHS, literally MONTHS after this was obvious to all, Rachel Maddow et al kept right on telling their viewers that a) they were completely bullet proof and b) anyone who said otherwise was a liar, a buffoon, a conspiracy theorist or worse. This lie was repeated over and over again even into the jaws of the Delta wave. And so all kinds of people that were told they were “bulletproof” began to engage in all kinds of behavior that eventually got them hospitalized and in some cases killed. I have the receipts – and I have the memories of little old ladies telling me in the ER – “But Rachel said….”.

      And let’s not forget about Russia Russia Russia, the laptop, inflation what inflation?, and most important of all – the Biden dementia disaster. There is literally an entire chapter in the Original Sin book detailing the obvious and Herculean efforts of Biden’s staff to hide his really bad infirmity during his D-Day appearance 3 weeks before the disastrous debate. I had not heard the story until I read that book – but the 104 year old DDay veterans were able to walk the 100 yards down a driveway to the next stage – while Biden was unable to do so – he could not walk downhill and he was constantly turning around and getting lost – just like a dementia patient would. They eventually had to put him in a golf cart or car. Not discussed in the book was the fact that all the while, THERE WAS VIDEO of this, and it was never shown to the USA. Instead, we had one commentary after the other from CNN MSNBC and NYT that malign actors were manipulating videos and purposely misleading people. Biden was as sharp as ever – and if you said otherwise, well F you ( literally said by MSNBC Morning Joe).

      Sorry, but absolutely no one in the Dem Party or the left side of the aisle has any standing at all to behave as if Fox is the only problem in our media landscape. Like I said, the lying during COVID got people killed – and the coverup of Biden got Trump elected. I cannot think of a more deserving ending for the cult members that have destroyed the Dem party.

      I wish everyone on the Dem side would stop and reflect before they say such things. It really does not comport with the reality that the rest of us are seeing.

      And again I will say – we absolutely desperately need a real media searching for the unvarnished truth to report to the American people. What we have now are silos feeding cult members information. It is truly scary.

      I am reminded yet again of Micheal Crichton, author of Jurassic Park, and his Gell-Mann logical fallacy. When people with expertise in one field ( like me in medicine) read a publication like NYT or listen to the lying Rachel Maddow – and read and hear all the misinformation that they KNOW is not true in their own area of expertise, the same reader often looks at other items in the paper not in their field and believes every word. It is truly a troubling thing for our ability to go forward as a nation. This is a large part of why I began to write comments here on NC. What our fractured media was writing about COVID about 90% of the time was pure hogwash. And it was from all sides. I feel I have an obligation to get more accurate takes out there. And that is why this site is so valuable to me – I can read true information about Ukraine, Israel whatever – because others in other fields of expertise are doing the same.

      Unfortunately, it is what we are all going to have to start doing with the media in the pitiful shape it is in across the board – from Fox to MSNBC.
      1. Bsn June 15, 2025 at 11:26 am

         Dear Doc. Many of us are appreciative of your comments and trust your knowledge. Personally, I agree that “This is a large part of why I began to write comments here on NC.” This is the only place that I comment, and one of the only blog/sites where I read the comments. I too, in the past, thought Fox was off the chain. I’d given up on the MSM in general and thought Fox was the “worst”. However, Fox has become a bit more balanced in that at least one can hear directly from various viewpoints as opposed to the Madow crowd of only hearing the dem propaganda. For example, MSM, both written and on “TV” will never directly interview RFK Jr., Tulsi Gabbard, etc. They primarily rely on hand picked quotes, innuendo, and downright lies to the positions of those other than Dem/CIA/CDC approved viewpoints.

         However, not as bad can still be bad. Independent media (many examples) and CSPAN is the only way to go, as long as they site their sources and have links backing up their viewpoints. Thanks NC and IM Doc.
      2. HH June 15, 2025 at 11:51 am

         NC is a precursor of what will eventually be a network of trusted media intermediaries. The demand is there, but what is lacking is a means of validating and integrating all the small tributaries of independent news and analysis into one river of legitimate information. When large scale media processing becomes affordable for smaller organizations, it will be possible to construct powerful automated facilities to aggregate trusted information, and this will finally turn the tide against the well-financed propaganda that passes for news today.
         1. vao June 15, 2025 at 4:16 pm

            If those alternative media ever reach the point where they significantly threaten established players (MSM and the new Internet overlords such as Google, Facebook, etc), I foresee that there will be plenty of lobbying to impose debilitating obligations on them — things like age-related controls, know-your-customer verification, copyright take-down procedures, reporting duties to whatever regulation authorities — your imagination is the limit.
            1. Kouros June 15, 2025 at 4:46 pm

               I wish Yves a long life in Thailand! If I ever visit my nephew in Pataya, I’ll try to reach out to her and express my gratitude for all her work. Bring her a miniature steel nutsack, the way some rednecks hoist on the back of their trucks in the US, asa present.

               And many more sponsors among the faithfull…
      3. chuck roast June 15, 2025 at 12:11 pm

         “…we absolutely desperately need a real media searching for the unvarnished truth to report to the American people.” Sorry Doc, there’s no money in it.
         1. John Wright June 15, 2025 at 4:36 pm

            Also, if Naked Capitalism started to be very influential, it would be stomped down somehow.

            The USA and European “powers that be” are rather paranoid, as I suspect the clampdown on college pro-Palestinian protests only made far more of the general public aware of Zionist power in the USA/Europe.

            If the protests and student speeches had occurred without any reaction by the schools, wealthy hedgies and media, they may have passed with little notice, as the US politicians were already on board with strong support for Zionism.

            One can hope that NC stays “under the radar”.
   2. pjay June 15, 2025 at 10:51 am

      According to some news reports the suspect actually was appointed to a state “Workforce Development Board” by Tim Walz. He was also apparently an anti-abortion, anti-LGBTQ evangelical who had started a “security” firm or two and had dealings in the Congo and supported Israel. So there’s that. As IM Doc suggests, the spokespersons for both Teams Red and Blue will be spinning this for their own purposes. I see no reason to trust the “non-Fox media” any more than Fox itself these days.
      1. divadab June 15, 2025 at 11:48 am

         “He was also apparently an anti-abortion, anti-LGBTQ evangelical”

         Seems rather to have been a Catholic – two degrees from a defunct Catholic University, yes anti-abortion, but also pro-benefits for undocumented migrants. Mediocre food industry career, series of 3-5 year jobs, followed by his own “Red Lion” consultancy since 2021. WHo was funding this, who was managing him, was he an agent or a dupe of someone else (MKULTRA?) in these assassinations?
      2. JustAnotherVolunteer June 15, 2025 at 12:54 pm

         First appointed by Walz democratic predecessor and re-appointed by Walz – a business friendly board drawing from across sectors. I wouldn’t make to much of this.
6. DJG, Reality Czar June 15, 2025 at 8:39 am

   Cara Marianna: West Bank impunities. I recommend this report to you.

   I am reminded of documents I have read about the Ottoman genocide of the Armenians, as well as the expulsion of the Pontic Greeks.

   Noting:
   ‘6 June: “More than 70 olive trees belonging to citizen Wadih Khaled from Turmus Ayya were cut down last night in the Marj Sa`i’ plain located between al-Mughayyir and Abu Falah, as well as 30 trees belonging to citizen Yasser Jawdat from Abu Falah, by settler groups in the settlement outpost established in Area B.”’

   In my world, as one of the People of the Olive Tree, I consider this the slaughter of the innocents.

   In Italy, Greece, and the Levant, the olive tree is sacred. You get the point.

   PS: I think that the term Zionist is worn out. The phenomenon is extreme nationalism, which is always tarted up with self-justifications.What we see in Israel isn’t different from Ukrainian nationalist fantasy, Polish drama-queen nationalism, Francisco Franco, and the Ku Klux Klan. Don’t gussy it up with pseudohistory.
   1. Mikel June 15, 2025 at 8:46 am

      Try racism instead of nationalism for a lot of those examples.
   2. Yves Smith June 15, 2025 at 10:57 am

      Finkelstein suggested “Jewish supremacist”.
      1. Michaelmas June 15, 2025 at 11:34 am

         He’s not wrong.
      2. NakedEmperor June 15, 2025 at 11:39 am

         One can refine it further – “White Jewish supremacist”. It is doubtful that African Jews are welcome into the club.
         1. vao June 15, 2025 at 4:40 pm

            Like all colonial regimes, Israel has a fairly elaborate hierarchy which determines the regard each community (real or arbitrary) can expect in the society.

            The Jews are of course at the top, in decreasing order: the Ashkenazim, then the Sephardi, then the Mizrahi, finally the Falashas. Lower still, the non-Jews, starting with the Druze, leaving the Beduins and the Palestinians at the lowest rung.

            The ordering amongst Jews is further nuanced between the recently immigrated Jews (no special consideration), the Sabras, i.e. those born in Israel (of course better, though there are so many Israelis born in Israel nowadays that this characteristic has lost its exclusivity wrt to the 1960s-1970s), and those born in Israel and descending from Jews who had immigrated before the State of Israel existed at all (the most prestigious qualifier). This kind of difference still exists in the remnants of former colonial empires. In French Caribbean possessions (Martinique and Guadeloupe), a “béké” is a descendent of the very first (slave-owning) French colons, while a “blanc-pays” is a locally born French, but from later immigration waves, and a “métropolitain” is a French coming from France and not born in Guadeloupe or Martinique.
            1. The Rev Kev June 15, 2025 at 7:35 pm

               No wonder Modi likes them. They understand the need for a system of castes. /sarc
7. ChrisFromGA June 15, 2025 at 8:45 am

   Happy Fathers day to all the dads out there.

   My unexpected Father’s Day gift was reading on DDGeopolitics that the Russians bombed a Boeing facility in Ukraine that was formerly a British Visa center. That made my day.
8. Jessica June 15, 2025 at 8:49 am

   Trump is the Obama of the right: Promise them anything but give them war and goodies for the ultra-rich.
   1. Trees&Trunks June 15, 2025 at 9:44 am

      Indeed. Obama, Sanders and Trump – all with promises but left only disillusion. Is that the plan? To facilitate the introduction of an openly oligarch tyranny?
   2. Christopher Smith June 15, 2025 at 10:00 am

      Good point
9. The Rev Kev June 15, 2025 at 8:51 am

   “US pushes Mexico to prosecute, extradite politicians with cartel ties”

   Mexico should counter demand that the US prosecutes those responsible for exporting weapons to Mexico and then extradite them there. But as this would also include the executives of US gun manufactures, I can’t see this happening. But a recent article found that a middle-range estimate of 135,000 firearms was trafficked from the U.S. to Mexico in 2022 alone. That’s kind of a lot. Maybe Mexico should build themselves a wall-

   https://theconversation.com/heres-how-we-figured-the-number-of-guns-illegally-trafficked-from-the-us-across-the-border-to-mexico-255074
   1. Trees&Trunks June 15, 2025 at 9:38 am

      Here is a classic regarding the wall

      https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0q_XtRuI9M4
   2. ACPAL June 15, 2025 at 10:33 am

      “include the executives of US gun manufactures”

      Blaming the manufacturers has been tried before. If this logic was accepted into the courts it would mean that if someone drives their Honda into a crowd of people then the executives of Honda must be held accountable. If someone kills people with a baseball bat then the baseball bat manufacturers would be held responsible. etc., etc., etc. Taking it closer to its logic conclusion then the parents of someone who robs a bank should go to jail because they “manufactured” the felon. ;-)
      1. The Rev Kev June 15, 2025 at 10:45 am

         Not the same. Was reading how those execs know where those guns are going and set up things to make it easy as it is so lucrative for them. This is more akin to ABM providing their computing services to the Nazis to organize the holocaust better through punch cards.
      2. LawnDart June 15, 2025 at 12:13 pm

         Cars and baseball bats aren’t designed or intended for killing.
         1. Kouros June 15, 2025 at 4:53 pm

            How many cars and baseball bats are used in killing people intentionally?
      3. Mo's Bike Shop June 15, 2025 at 1:46 pm

         Thank you for pointing out this slippery slope, why soon we’d be trying to regulate legitimate businesses that sell oxycontin, or cigarettes, or lawn darts.
      4. Revenant June 15, 2025 at 5:17 pm

         Don’t joke. In the USA recently, a school shooter’s parents were put on trial.and I think convicted of negligence / recklessness with regard to his access to guns and mental state.
   3. hk June 15, 2025 at 11:00 am

      And US govt officials… I’d start with a certain B Obama.

      https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ATF_gunwalking_scandal
10. ceco June 15, 2025 at 9:17 am

    Re: Zuckerberg/Godlike AI “article”

    At the end of the article:

    Our author used artificial intelligence to enhance this article.

    I’d say that “artificial intelligence” was used for more than “enhancing” the article: looks like the article, the images, all the other articles, the rest of the site, and even the “writers” are all AI-generated slop – with the possible exception of “editor-in-chief” Avi Cohen in Tel Aviv…

    “Journalists” that have written hundreds of articles in total but not one of them has posted once to their twitter account?

    Nothing about that site passes a sniff test for me – except the headline of the posted article itself; that sounds about right to me…
    1. Bsn June 15, 2025 at 11:36 am

       Thanks for pointing that out. I agree that IA is rapidly decimating clarity/honesty in reporting. Right now, we can look closely and see errors indicating AI “enhancement”. Soon, perhaps 1 – 2 years, it’ll be nearly impossible. Can’t stress enough to focus on the subjects you care about and begin to store/accumulate “ol school”, pre-AI versions of important items: gardening books, medical/encyclopedic information and refference text, films or whatever else is important to you for either entertainment or learning. Most “information” will soon be watered down so much as to be useless, because of AI.
11. Judith June 15, 2025 at 9:20 am

    Alexander Mercouris talked about this readout of Putin’s conversations yesterday with Netanyahu and Pezeshkian. Putin combines both conversations into one readout and his support for Iran is quite clear.

    Here’s the link to the readout:

    http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/77181
    1. Yves Smith June 15, 2025 at 9:38 am

       We linked to this in 6/14 Links
       1. Judith June 15, 2025 at 9:42 am

          Thanks.
12. The Rev Kev June 15, 2025 at 9:25 am

    “Israel’s Netanyahu vows more strikes on Iran as casualties mount”

    Mighty tall talk from a guy that reputedly bolted and is in hiding in Greece after ordering the attacks to commence. Still amazed that two years into this war, that average Israelis still have not worked out that Netanyahu does not care how many of them are killed, crippled or mentally scared, just so long as he is OK. If they were half smart, they should cancel his passport and not let him back into the county.
    1. raspberry jam June 15, 2025 at 10:20 pm

       he’s returned (I think he came back late Friday night after the first wave); he visited Bat Nam Sunday morning IL time.

       I agree it is rich talk coming from him. I think commercial flights are still grounded in/out of IL currently. Lots of rumors Ben Gurion was struck tonight, the Iranians were warning locals to stay away from the section reserved for military flights yesterday.
13. micaT June 15, 2025 at 9:33 am

    why do so many articles these days not actually discuss what the title is?
    The wind machine article doesn’t actually talk about any flaws except maybe the AI wind machine image with 4 blades, so I guess that counts. They bring up coal, but fail to mention coal and oil use is going down in china. It’s an amazing achievement to make a 24MW wind machine, staggering.
    The CNET one never actually gives any numbers or actual info as to the differences of what they talk about. They do mention water use, but fail to explain its all for cooling, which can be done closed loop with no water use at all, yes more energy to cool the water but the same water just goes round and round.
    One technique that is used is when there is low cost electricity you make ice essentially as a battery for use later. In the case of data center cooling, that makes a lot of sense.
    1. ceco June 15, 2025 at 9:48 am

       See my other post about the Zuckerberg article under AI, but “Sustainability Times” looks like an AI slop ad farm. It’s all bullshit – the article, comments, site – all of it except the ads for scams and malware.

       Years ago I worked for a bottom-feeding digital ad company (I have a family to support) and Sustainability Times has all the hallmarks of an old fashioned ad farm given an AI facelift.
       1. ChrisPacific June 15, 2025 at 5:40 pm

          Their ‘about us’ page references ‘Ormedia’ as the publisher. This is an Israeli company with a street address that is also a co-working space (WeWork) in Tel Aviv. LinkedIn says they have between 2 and 10 employees (only one is a member of LinkedIn, and does not have a public profile).

          Its most prolific journalist, Eirwen Williams, is not on LinkedIn, but writes for two other publications: Rude Baguette (as a male) and Visegrad Post (as a female). He/she has published thousands of articles for some of them. His/her bio is a cookie cutter variant on each of them, with some words and phrases changed to better match the market or simply using synonyms. The same (low res, possibly AI) profile photo is used on all of them. Beyond the bylines on the three sites, there is zero online footprint – there’s a real Eirwen Williams on Instagram, but she appears to be a middle-aged Irish lady and looks nothing at all like the profile photo.

          So yes: it’s a click farming outfit, like Occupy Democrats used to be back when Facebook would happily send millions of views their way. The original variants were more tabloid in nature – the story about Trump making a secret white supremacist sign originated from one of them (and became true after the fact once it was picked up by other outlets and actual white supremacists decided to adopt the sign). This one seems like it’s intended to offer the appearance of insight via a veneer of AI analysis.

          Yes, I’m telling you what you knew already, but I think it’s useful to show the working on uncovering the fakery. It generally doesn’t take much.
          1. ceco June 16, 2025 at 1:21 am

             You’re saying I didn’t adequately show my work? That’s fair. I’ll endeavor to do better in the future.

             Thank you for showing me the proper way to present my research.
             1. ChrisPacific June 16, 2025 at 5:57 am

                Ha. No, I wrote that because I didn’t want to insult you by suggesting you didn’t know all this. It wasn’t intended to be an assignment, just supporting detail. I probably phrased it poorly.
    2. MaryLand June 15, 2025 at 9:49 am

       I assume they think most people will just read the headline and not the article. The article is increasingly done by AI. “The medium is the message,” so I guess the headline is the message whether it’s backed up with facts or not. It seems like facts are no longer important. Headlines send the message they want you to take in as fact. What a crappified world we live in.
    3. jsn June 15, 2025 at 10:01 am

       That’s because it’s Chinese: whatever the Chinese do, ipso facto ( from the Mighty Wurlitzer) there’s something wrong with it.

       Once you notice this, as you now have, you can assess the integration of any publisher with said Wurlitzer by this headline form: milestone Chinese accomplishment (which we can’t do); some real or potential downsides (which would be market externalities we’d further saddled the poor and vulnerable with if we could profitably do whatever it is the Chinese have now done).
       1. Alex Cox June 15, 2025 at 1:49 pm

          B at Moon of Alabama published a list of MSM headlines, all of which read “China (fill in some great achievement) – But at What Cost?”
          There were hundreds of them.
          1. alfred venison June 15, 2025 at 8:46 pm

             It was hilarious to read, he must have been keeping a file : so many examples, so readily at hand, and spanning so many years.
    4. ceco June 15, 2025 at 10:22 am

       Regarding the CNET article – the one thing I saw common to all of Cierra Noffke’s articles on CNET were ISP ads – the “author” does have a LinkedIn profile and a WordPress “personal” blog so she may be a real person, but I wouldn’t stake a wager on it.

       Trojan horse for ads.
14. Wukchumni June 15, 2025 at 9:33 am

    I am he as you are he as you are me
    And we are all neocons together
    See how they run like Quakers from a gun
    See how they fly
    I’m crying

    Standing on a soap box
    Waiting for the big war to come
    Corporation advert, stupid bloody Tuesday
    Man you’ve been a naughty boy
    You let your whiskers grow long

    I am the egg it on man
    They are the egg it on men
    I am the walrus mustache
    Goo goo g’joob

    Mister global policeman sitting
    Pretty little global policemen in a row
    See how they fly when Lucy grabs football on the sly, see how they run
    I’m crying, I’m crying I’m crying, I’m crying

    Yellow matter uranium cake custard
    Dripping from Colin Powell, aye
    Iraqi warwife, scornographic priest test
    Boy, you’ve been a naughty ploy, you didn’t let your backers down

    I am the egg it on man
    They are the egg it on men
    I am the walrus mustache
    Goo goo g’joob

    Sitting in a sink tank garden
    Waiting for more war to come
    If the war don’t come you gotta fan
    From standing on the sidelines with refrain

    I am the egg it on man (now good sir)
    They are the egg it on men
    (all rich man, made tame to fortune’s blows)
    I am the walrus mustache
    Goo goo g’joob, goo goo goo g’joob (good pity)

    Expert, textpert choking brokers
    Don’t you think the joker laughs at you
    (ho ho ho, hee hee hee, hah hah hah)
    See how they smile like pigs in a sty, see how they snide
    I’m crying

    Seminal plasma miasma
    Climbing up the ivory tower
    Elementary penguin singing I have more war wisha
    Man, you should have seen them kicking for more MIC dough

    I am the egg it on man
    They are the egg it on men
    I am the walrus mustache
    Goo goo g’joob, goo goo goo g’joob
    Goo goo g’joob, goo goo goo g’joob, goo
    Joob, joob, jooba
    Jooba, jooba, jooba
    Joob, jooba
    Joob, jooba

    Umpa, umpa, stick it up your jumper (jooba, jooba)
    Umpa, umpa, stick it up your jumper
    Everybody’s got one (umpa, umpa)
    Everybody’s got one (stick it up your jumper)
    Everybody’s got one (umpa, umpa)
    Everybody’s got one (stick it up your jumper)
    Everybody’s got one (umpa, umpa)
    Everybody’s got one (stick it up your jumper)
    Everybody’s got one (umpa, umpa)
    Everybody’s got one (stick it up your jumper)
    Everybody’s got one (umpa, umpa)
    Everybody’s got one (stick it up your jumper)
    Everybody’s got one (umpa, umpa)

    I Am the Walrus, by the Beatles

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ws5klxbI87I
15. The Rev Kev June 15, 2025 at 10:00 am

    “Israel’s mission hinges on destroying Iran’s hardest nuclear target”

    That’s a weird headline that. Israel does not have the equipment or capability Iran’s nuclear establishment. They only ones that they have really hit are the public ones that are hardly hidden. But of course the only way that they can be destroyed is for Israel to get America to fight Iran for them and do the hard work – and absorb the casualties which is kinda the plan. I did note this bit from that article-

    ‘International Atomic Energy Agency Director-General Rafael Grossi told the UN Security Council on Friday that Iran’s above-ground enrichment facility in Natanz had been destroyed by Israeli strikes.’

    So did Grossi tell the UN Security Council that Natanz was destroyed by missiles – but he can’t work out who fired them?
16. Wukchumni June 15, 2025 at 10:06 am

    The Two Achilles Heels of Complex Systems The Honest Sorcerer
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    I re-read Tainter’s The Collapse of Complex Societies a fortnight ago, and the trio of complex societies he uses as examples weren’t all that complex compared to our gig, and more importantly they all happened in a vacuum pretty much, the Maya had no idea of what was going on with the Roman empire and vice versa, while the Chacoan culture was oblivious to either collapse outside it’s realm.

    Gonna be way different as we are all tied to the hip with electricity generation even though it varies somewhat, and really none of us know how it operates aside from a token minority of the old guard who are the de facto gatekeepers.

    Man vs. Electricity: Meet Dr. Megavolt

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fyko81WAvvQ
17. Yves Smith June 15, 2025 at 10:20 am

    Just in:

    BREAKING: PAKISTAN THREATENS THAT IF INDIA INTERVENES IN IRANIAN AIRSPACE IT WILL MOBILISE ITS ENTIRE AIR FORCE AGAINST THE ISRAELI AIR FORCE! pic.twitter.com/TPmXEjGM44

    — Sulaiman Ahmed (@ShaykhSulaiman) June 15, 2025

    This may just be threat display, but Pakistan is next on the menu if Iran goes down, so it does have reason to back Iran.
    1. Samuel Conner June 15, 2025 at 10:35 am

       Does India have a “side” in this fight? A superficial Google search suggests that there are concerns about Indian nationals stranded in Iran and unable to evacuate.
       1. gf June 15, 2025 at 11:35 am

          A lot of Hindus despise Muslims.
    2. The Rev Kev June 15, 2025 at 10:39 am

       Is Modi that nuts to do a bone-head stunt like that? To fly to Iran is about several hundred kilometers at least. And they can hardly fly over Pakistan so would have to fly over the ocean. Will countries like Oman let them overfly them which would make them a part of this war? Won’t they have to refuel? Further down that tweet is the story of how Modi has arrived in southern Cyprus which must be that big military base so it may be on. But I’m not sure how popular this would be in India itself and could blow up if China also announces that they will help stop India. Maybe doing some exerciser on the China-India border for a start to tie down their military.
       1. Yves Smith June 15, 2025 at 10:50 am

          I can’t recall what YouTuber but IIRC someone pretty credible like Berletic mentioned this as possible.
          1. Polar Socialist June 15, 2025 at 12:54 pm

             I’ve seen claims that according to air traffic trackers, several Chinese military cargo planes have landed in Iran, and some Afghan news sites claiming that military equipment is being transferred from Pakistan to Iran.

             As Pakistan uses Chinese air-defense systems, one wonders, whether this indicates rebuilding/updating Iranian air-defenses as fast as possible. If true at all, of course.
    3. ACPAL June 15, 2025 at 10:39 am

       I wonder if truck loads of armed drones are already inside Pakistan waiting for the attack order.
       1. Mikel June 15, 2025 at 1:36 pm

          And the certain officials in the USA knowing about plans like this before the last election should make everybody wonder about other reasons at play for the border crackdowns.
    4. ceco June 15, 2025 at 10:48 am

       I replied earlier but my comment seemed to disappear into the moderation hole, whether intentionally or not, but what I can see of that twitter feed is pretty clickbait-y (I don’t have an account myself) and I can’t find any other corroboration – this looks to me like a propaganda/psyop post, or even just clickbait – are you familiar with this journalist, or have you seen this from another source?

       As others have noted, it doesn’t ring true.
       1. Yves Smith June 15, 2025 at 11:19 am

          This tweet came from a normally sound reader, The threat is contingent on India action, where there is no sign India is planning to take this step. As indicated, there was just a debate in the Pakistan Senate. India and Pakistan did just have a dustup. We just had a link on a bona fide hot head statement, of a former Russian general urging Russia to bulk up its army for WWIII.
       2. Mikel June 15, 2025 at 2:10 pm

          That may not ring true to you, but Pakistan is also a neighbor of China.
          Locking down Pakistan would not only relate to the Israel-Iran conflict, but the empire’s pivot to China.
    5. Yves Smith June 15, 2025 at 10:55 am

       Pakistan’s Senate has passed a resolution supporting Iran: https://www.news18.com/world/israel-iran-war-news-live-updates-benjamin-netanyahu-israeli-iranian-conflict-operation-rising-lion-latest-liveblog-9386290.html

       Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is talking up promoting peace: https://tribune.com.pk/story/2550926/pm-decries-israeli-aggression-as-a-threat-to-regional-peace

       Note the India and Israel are tighter than you’d think. Apologies for the image but I seem unable to copy and paste from this site:

       

       https://northeastlivetv.com/topnews/israel-apologises-after-sharing-map-showing-northeast-india-in-nepal-jk-in-pakistan/

       I think it is possible that the tweet (sent by a reader who is normally sound) is misleading , by not saying who the source was, as opposed to an invention. Given the fresh passage of a resolution in Pakistan’s Senate backing Iran, it could be that one Senator advocated for this response if India acted during the debate.
       1. ceco June 15, 2025 at 12:14 pm

          The twitter account in question – at least from what I can see without my own twitter account – seems like a propaganda outlet or sock puppet.

          A scan down the other posts I can see shows no real commentary, it’s all just provocative images, videos and memes most likely engineered to be shared/retwatted and go viral. It’s generally pro-Palestine, pro-Muslim, hypocrisy of the west stuff. Maybe a Pakistani channel, but who knows. If anything the Israelis are the pioneers in this regard, c.f. The CNET and Sustainability Times ad farm links from today.

          The bottom-feeding digital ad company I worked for long ago had more than a couple somewhat mysterious Israel-based consultants. In particular, I believe the browser extensions and other malware that was rife in those ad networks came from there.
       2. Bugs June 15, 2025 at 1:14 pm

          There is a certain segment of the RSS/BJP supporting public that loves ‘Israel’ because they see it doing to Muslims what they fantasize doing in India and to their north west neighbor. At the same time, Mein Kampf is still sells well and is often displayed at booksellers across India. Go figure.
          1. Wukchumni June 15, 2025 at 1:31 pm

             Full Disclosure: I know nothing, nothing!

             There, got that off my chest.

             Could there be a Israeli-Indian connection in the diamond cutting biz, the hoarse drawn cart following the string with carats on it?
       3. Kouros June 15, 2025 at 5:20 pm

          So Israel is buying Russian oil and diamonds via India, eh?!

          It feels they both have the interest at hart for the conflict in Ukraine to last as long as possible, since they are getting rich from handling discounted Russian goods.

          With what is going now in Iran, there are non-zero chances that Mr. Putin might be sent to early retirement by the Stavka…
    6. Mikel June 15, 2025 at 1:19 pm

       Yeah…I was just thinking last night that dust up with India probably isn’t finished.
       And I think Helmer’s take on the outcome of that is more on point – which is would add to their nervousness.
    7. Kouros June 15, 2025 at 4:58 pm

       It seems they have a keener sense on what is what than Mr. Putin…

       https://johnhelmer.net/how-to-say-in-russian-happy-birthday-donald-happy-us-army-and-flag-day/
    8. hk June 15, 2025 at 6:43 pm

       Interesting lapel pin…
18. ilsm June 15, 2025 at 10:26 am

    ADS-B, now USAF C-17 flying south toward Greece, just refueled. C-5 flying out from Belgium to SE.

    Maybe resupplying IDF. Or advance party for major air movement.

    This could be start of US rescue like Oct 1973.

    Remember the gas lines.

    Trust Trump and the deep state consensus no one heard about in the election.
    1. Wukchumni June 15, 2025 at 10:34 am

       A friend was stationed in Germany in 1973 and related that a good portion of the tanks on hand were shipped to Israel as they were in the process of losing, leaving the cupboard quite bare on the continent against the Russian bear.
       1. hk June 15, 2025 at 11:05 am

          We had to update M48s in storage with new guns in a hurry because we sent all the M60 tanks we could, from US Army inventory, to Israel.
       2. ilsm June 15, 2025 at 11:16 am

          I was in a C-141 wing in Oct 1973. We had finished catching up on delayed maintenance from too much “hauling” to Southeast Asia.

          For a few weeks most of the aircraft were out “east”.

          US had brand new air to ground guided weapons, just proven in Vietnam. Most of the stores went to IDF, by airlift.

          I felt a little responsible for the gas lines I sat in.

          If the Saudis go like Pakistan and back Iran they could embargo oil to US and EU.
          1. Wukchumni June 15, 2025 at 12:34 pm

             I was almost a teenager when the first gas crisis hit and being a passenger was no big deal, I was merely along for the ride…

             A newly minted hellion on wheels went through the second episode, and remember the longest line I was in to get go juice was about 1/2 a mile, which seemed to defeat the purpose, as you’d keep the engine going as you were slowly making your way to the pumps.

             …was the rest of my life going to be like this, I pondered?

             Strategic Petroleum Reserve was established in 1975, so i’d guess it was somewhat filled by the second oil crisis, whereas with it currently, did it ever get a fill-up after Genocide Joe depleted it?
             1. ilsm June 15, 2025 at 6:13 pm

                US imports about 3 million barrels of crude each day.

                NPR good for 100 days or so but……

                Oil in world will be >$130/bbl.

                So…
                you may get gasoline at $7/gal

                When drops 15% off Friday peace will break out.

                TACO
19. griffen June 15, 2025 at 10:28 am

    FIFA World Cup in 2026, being hosted on the North American continent so the host countries include the US, Canada and Mexico. I’m sure there won’t be much tomfoolery* when it actually gets around to the games played in about 12 to 13 months. * fields of play or even ACL tears

    Atlanta is traffic hell enough on a daily basis. What will these weary world travelling soccer fans endure when it is time to root for their devoted team and country…? And the events will also prove a conspicuous preview for the Los Angeles games in 2028.

    Not really a soccer fan myself, but I heard quite recently, that the US men’s national team has some work to do still…I mean to become a high quality unit…
    1. curlydan June 15, 2025 at 1:10 pm

       The World Cup is less than a year away, and it could get very interesting off the field, too. Some nations may be under travel bans (currently, only Iran) although I hear there are exceptions for athletes, coaches, etc. But the Trump ban may be expanding to more countries. ICE might get excited with an “invasion” of foreigners.

       Many stadiums are undergoing renovations, including Arrowhead which is too narrow for World Cup soccer.

       Atlanta games thankfully will be indoors, but those outdoor beer gardens are going to be an issue. In 1994, the U.S. got kind of lucky since England was not at the tournament. I could see a few more fan issues occurring next year.

       Hopefully, security will be better than last year’s absolute debacle in Miami for the Copa America final where basically anyone who wanted inside the facility could manage it as long as he/she could climb.

       Then there’s the U.S. men’s national team. A total disgrace as of late, losing 4-0 to Switzerland the other night on home soil IN THE FIRST HALF. The team is full of European-based club players who en masse decided to take the summer off after being worked like pack mules by their club teams (leading to the Switzerland debacle) plus untested MLS U.S. based players who look like deer in headlights. For those who pray, send a few prayers the U.S. team’s way for the World Cup. Tonight, they play Trinidad and Tobago in their opening game of the North American championship tournament–should be a close game as crazy as that sounds.
       1. Wukchumni June 15, 2025 at 1:12 pm

          I’m just hoping we have enough in the way of medics, ambulances and whatnot to take care of all of those injuries on the pitch that seem so devastating at first.
       2. griffen June 16, 2025 at 7:47 am

          I’ve been to an Atlanta United(?) game once, just tagging along with some brothers for an afternoon. Didn’t really follow the action to closely but it’s a good setting and I do think that Mr. Blank with deep pockets as the owner did a few things that team owners don’t often attempt or bother doing. There are fan friendly parking areas near to the stadium but I’m sure fees are at a premium for Falcons home games ( by example ). Also it’s still downtown Atlanta so traffic is always and ever, just what it is.

          And as to building in for the proper security protocols and logistics well, I’m sure that would never be outsourced to any low cost vendor, right ? / sarc
20. Wukchumni June 15, 2025 at 10:31 am

    Driving home from Tijuana-adjacent yesterday, I listened in to Fox news on the radio, and oh how they made the military parade into quite the patriotism angle with enough puffery to fill the Hindenburg, while ‘extreme violence’ hampered the No Kings protests, on account of somebody being shot in Salt Lake City.

    The Minnesota political assassination was 3rd fiddle after No Kings, as if it was just another day in the office.
    1. NakedEmperor June 15, 2025 at 12:09 pm

       I was listening to CNN on the car radio and its reporters too were all gushy about Trump’s birthday parade. They all said that it was very patriotic and that Trump’s speech was heart rendering. I nearly gagged.
       1. ambrit June 15, 2025 at 6:55 pm

          Hmmm… “Heart rendering….” In the cooking the oil out of it sense? I can believe that.
21. Bsn June 15, 2025 at 10:42 am

    We have to remain (or become) diligent and sceptical. I read the France 24 article about a recent prisoner exchange between Ukraine and Russia. The article noted
    “Ukraine did not say whether it returned any bodies to Russia.” Of course, France 24 didn’t ask Russia, just relied on Ukraine’s version of events. Slanted, to say the least.
    1. divadab June 15, 2025 at 11:53 am

       Especially considering the Ukrainians refused to accept their war dead from Russia, according to Russia over 6,000 dead. Why? Because as long as a soldier is reported as “missing”, the Ukrainian government does not have to pay benefits to the families that they would have if the soldier were officially “dead”.
       1. Polar Socialist June 15, 2025 at 12:44 pm

          Russia made it to such an international show on the Belarusian border with those freezer trucks, that Ukraine has accepted already about 4800 bodies.

          They also exchanged seriously wounded prisoners, which in my local media was presented as normal Ukrainian POWs returning from Russian torture chambers.
       2. LifelongLib June 15, 2025 at 4:03 pm

          Not sure Ukraine is saving money that way. My understanding is that in the U.S. military people who are “missing” (or their families) continue to receive full pay and benefits, which can add up to a lot. Maybe Ukraine has a different arrangement though.
          1. vao June 15, 2025 at 4:52 pm

             My understanding is that if anything is paid to missing soldiers, then it ends up in the pocket of their commanding officers. It also seems that families of deceased Ukrainian soldiers had to sign a renunciation of the indemnities for fallen combattants as a condition for the government to accept the return of the corpses.
       3. Kouros June 15, 2025 at 5:01 pm

          I understand the UKR Rada has passed a law that obliges the gov to pay compensation to deaceased soldiers’ families within 2 years after death in the war…
22. The Rev Kev June 15, 2025 at 10:58 am

    “Hegseth defends use of troops to protect immigration raids in Los Angeles’

    I always mistrusted Hegseth as he reminds me of a sleaze bag but it seems that for him, the Posse Comitatus Act is not so much a law but just a suggestion. This is just him normalizing deploying troops out onto the streets for things that ordinary beat cops should be doing. That is just buying trouble. I noticed too that this article never, ever mention the Posse Comitatus act. Strange that-

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Posse_Comitatus_Act
    1. Wukchumni June 15, 2025 at 1:05 pm

       To have the USA go down in flames on account of this ship of fools is appropriate I suppose, a speed bump on our descent to being a fourth-world country, and we’ll remember it as a cautionary tale for around 80 years, until we forget what went down.

       Honesty was dyin’ out
       No one left but liars to scream and shout
       People in the administration talking like loons
       Anti-semantic goons

       Everyone was hanging out
       Hanging up and hanging down
       Hanging in and holding fast
       Hope our little world will last

       Yeah, along came Mr. Goodtrips again
       Looking for a new shift
       Come on people, better climb on board
       Come on baby, now we’re going home
       Ship of fools, ship of fools

       Honesty was dyin’ out
       No one left but liars to scream and shout
       People in the administration talking like loons
       Anti-semantic goons

       Ship of fools, ship of fools
       Ship of fools, ship of fools
       Ship of fools, ship of fools

       Yeah, climb on board now
       The ship’s gonna leave you all far behind
       Ya got climb on board yeah

       Ship of fools, ship of fools
       Ship of fools, ship of fools

       Ship of Fools, by the Doors

       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75dZn_Te_y8
23. Tom Stone June 15, 2025 at 11:00 am

    I find it curious that there is seldom any mention of the Mormon church in discussions about America’s future.
    They have effectively been a state within the state since they made a deal with the Lincoln administration, they are explicitly a tribe and they have provided an outsize presence to both the FBI and the CIA’s action arm.
    They re a cohesive group that thinks in the long term, it would be interesting to discover what their leadership is discussing.
    1. ambrit June 15, 2025 at 6:58 pm

       My best guess is that the Elders of the LDS are debating how to accommodate all the co-ethnic refugees soon to be flooding into America from the former State of Israel. (The Mormons are one of the “Lost Tribes of Israel” after all.)
24. RedStapler June 15, 2025 at 11:30 am

    Re: ‘Sustainability Times’ immediately sets of my BS detector.
    The physics of the square cube law would require a new moblie crane support vessel to build such a windfarm.
    They also mentioned in a click through box a solar panel with a efficiency ~25% above what has been previously done. Photovoltaics are a mature industry with very small but steady incremental gains in efficiency.
    1. Mikel June 15, 2025 at 1:11 pm

       Ah…another warning about “Sustainability Times”.
       It also set off my Spidey-sense the other day.
25. Wukchumni June 15, 2025 at 12:18 pm

    A fortnight ago a couple of Israeli embassy workers were assassinated and within days, measures were taken to strengthen laws regarding anything deemed Anti-Semitism in the USA…

    Yesterday, a couple was murdered by an evang assassin, who also wounded another politician in the effort and wanted to play hitman on 70 other politicians.

    When do we strengthen laws against dogma calling the shots?
    1. ambrit June 15, 2025 at 7:02 pm

       “When do we strengthen laws against dogma calling the shots?”
       I’d say when we get those American Politicos out of the Corner Pocket.
       “OK Jaimie. I call that Blue Senator in the Middle Pocket. I’ll put ten grand on it.”
       “You’re on Peter, you’re on.”
26. NakedEmperor June 15, 2025 at 12:23 pm

    Let the conspiracy theories fly!! :)

    https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/bay-area-man-missing-hiking-himalayas-20378201.php?sid=57ed8f9f289acbae0f8b52f1&stn=nf
27. t June 15, 2025 at 12:38 pm

    NPR story on RFK Jr’s latest crime has mRNA as the default for Covid vaccines. Not even a parenthetical for Novavax.

    But the good news is the slime merchant is planning a multi million ad campaign to promote healthy eating! Unlear at this point if the campaign will promote colloidal silver, methylene blue, or eye of newt. Whatever happens, I have a solid bar bet most of the money will go to his usual crew of fritters which, to be fair, does include some decent graphic designers.
28. Jason Boxman June 15, 2025 at 12:39 pm

    From Boomers are getting scammed for billions online — here’s how to break the cycle

    Solving this crisis primarily requires more than just new laws or better software. It demands human attention, compassion and community action. The solution starts with a simple question: When will you spend 15 minutes this month talking with a senior about online scams?

    Huh.

    I get a dozen spam calls and several texts a day on my Verizon-obtained cell number that I ignore on permanent mute; I still use my Google Voice number with the Google Voice app.

    My phone would be completely unusable with the Verizon provided number.

    Maybe we need laws and regulation so that telephony providers don’t leave their networks open like a sieve. I shouldn’t be getting these automated spam calls in the dozens every week, nor these automated text spam messages.

    This is not a serious country.
    1. Maxwell Johnston June 15, 2025 at 1:10 pm

       I assume you are from the USA, so let me assure you (as I have cell phones in both Italy and Russia) that this problem is not unique to your country. I only answer known numbers, unless I’m awaiting a courier delivery. Russian criminals have raised cell phone phishing/fraud to a fine art, and they’re particularly adept at targeting credulous pensioners. I don’t know what the solution is, but so far neither Italy nor Russia have solved this problem, let alone addressed it seriously.
       1. Wukchumni June 15, 2025 at 1:23 pm

          Indeed, pocket pickers need not know how to go about physically separating you from your money these days, instead of a deft wrist grabbing the manna from a handy pocket, the perp just hands it over.
    2. Erstwhile June 15, 2025 at 1:36 pm

       Parts of this country are deadly serious about getting as much money as they possibly can, and to hell with everything, and everyone, else. They think that’s why GOD created markets, to justify their own faith in their own greed.
29. thump June 15, 2025 at 12:52 pm

    The image to Marisa Kabas’ post does not seem to have a link. At least when I click on it, I cannot get to the post (and the posts in the thread). Here is the link:
    https://bsky.app/profile/marisakabas.bsky.social/post/3lrmeaybps22e
30. Victor Sciamarelli June 15, 2025 at 12:53 pm

    China is viewed as a peer competitor and threat to US interests and hegemony. China is also the world’s largest importer of oil beginning with Russia, as well as from nearly every ME country: Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, UAE.
    The US plan to use Ukraine to downsize Russia, if not break it apart, and Israel to do the same in the ME, so that the US could control ME oil and better control China, is looking like a colossal blunder.
    The US doesn’t really need peace with Iran but regime change and a government beholden to US interests. Unfortunately, Supreme Leader Trump is the kind of person who will make it all much worse.
    1. Unironic Pangloss June 15, 2025 at 4:31 pm

       i’m surprised that the rabidly anti-Iran hawks haven’t astroturfed a narrative that regime change in Iran = a new chokehold on China.

       Magnitudes more Chinese/E Asia-bound oil heads thru Hormuz than US-bound.

       If Hormuz closes, prices could skyrocket but there would be no shortages….particularly if DC enacted a hydrocarbons export ban.
31. NakedEmperor June 15, 2025 at 12:58 pm

    I’m trying to organize my thoughts regarding the Israel and NATO unprovoked attacks on Iran. It seems to make no sense to me.

    The IAEA has stated many times that Iran is not chasing a “Bomb”. They have had inspectors on the ground in Iran to verify this. Israel and NATO must also know this, and yet publicly they claim Iran poses an existential threat to Israel with its pursuit of the Bomb and so it must be neutralized. Why?

    If Israel and NATO succeed in completely destroying Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, then what? Will its military forces then stand down? Why risk a regional and perhaps even wider war to destroy a non-existent threat? What is the benefit to Israel and NATO?

    If regime change is the ultimate aim what are the costs and benefits to Israel and NATO? It seems to me that the costs will be considerably higher than the benefits. Financiers largely run the world. Sky high oil and gas prices risk collapsing the world economy, thus posing immeasurable risks to the fortunes of the financiers. Will they be okay with this?

    The military actions taken against Iran by Israel and NATO seem to me to be the actions of a lunatic. When I put on my tin foil hat I come up with another idea. This involves people like Peter Thiel and Alex Karp. For them, wrecking the world provides great business opportunities. Build back the world to their liking. Israel and NATO are mere tools to be used to achieve this greater end. What kind of world can be built on top of radioactive rubble? My head is exploding!
    1. Samuel Conner June 15, 2025 at 2:15 pm

       Brian Berlectic’s latest The New Atlas commentary may be helpful.

       BB thinks that Iran’s friendliness with RF and PRC makes it a target for US.

       Start at 13:15

       If BB is right, this is at heart about Mackinder’s “heartland” versus “periphery” vision of geostrategy.

       Still very disheartening. “The more wisdom, the more sorrow”
    2. Jason Boxman June 15, 2025 at 3:16 pm

       It is puzzling. Did Israel truly believe it could sufficiently defang Iran that there’d be no more than superficial damage to Israel?

       This year is truly lit.
       1. juno mas June 15, 2025 at 5:05 pm

          Yes, the “Fatah-1” rushing into view at hyper-speed then illuminating ALL of the night sky with it’s impact was amazing to watch. This could get ugly fast.
    3. Samuel Conner June 15, 2025 at 5:03 pm

       John Helmer’s latest, linked by Mikel below, agrees with Brian Berletic that, from the point of view of the US, conflict with Iran is fundamentally about Russia.

       It’s a medium-sized piece on the geopolitical chess-board.
32. Jason Boxman June 15, 2025 at 12:58 pm

    From San Jose anti-fraud expert, a former NVIDIA manager, charged with fraud

    California’s insurance department last August received from Cigna a suspected fraudulent claim by Firozan, the DA’s office said. She had been flagged earlier by Cigna in October 2023 “after she submitted a large amount of reimbursement claims in one month,” the DA’s office said.

    A joint investigation between the DA’s office and the insurance department allegedly found that Firozan had altered bills by changing dates, and often fabricated entire documents. Health care providers confirmed to investigators that the health care services listed in her claims “were either not performed at all or were duplicated claims,” the DA’s office said.

    That’s bizarre, because as an employee at Nvidia, Firozan would be paid in salary and stock several multiples of the alleged amount of the fraud, annually.
33. Mikel June 15, 2025 at 2:42 pm

    https://johnhelmer.net/how-to-say-in-russian-happy-birthday-donald-happy-us-army-and-flag-day/

    This post was so hot that I didn’t know where to begin with an excerpt.
    1. Kouros June 15, 2025 at 5:07 pm

       You mean depressing?!
34. steppenwolf fetchit June 15, 2025 at 2:47 pm

    About the ” game over” article for Musk, it is not enough for Musk to leave the management structure of Tesla. He will still own massive shareloads of Tesla. Even if he “pretends” to divest these shares, he will still benefit from them somehow. Any performative “divestment” by Musk would be a deception-operation on Musk’s part.

    The only way to weaken Musk is to exterminate Tesla from existence and drive it into Roach Motel Liquidation and drive every Tesla-connected financial instrument or token of any kind all the way down to zero.

    If Tesla employees/engineers/etc. are really such a resource of vast wisdom and knowledge, let them take their vast wisdom and knowledge to legitimate car companies either in America or elsewhere.
    1. juno mas June 15, 2025 at 4:57 pm

       There are better, cheaper EV’s being produced. Tesla has competition and the market for expensive EV’s is saturated. Dumping shares is wise.
       1. steppenwolf fetchit June 15, 2025 at 7:11 pm

          So between being wise AND being the right thing to do, dumping shares of Tesla would seem to be an overdetermined outcome going forward.

          I hope the unfolding chain of events makes it so.

          And I hope worldwide extermicott of Tesla’s cars helps in the process.

          Die Tesla Die. And take Musk with you.
       2. johnnyme June 15, 2025 at 9:10 pm

          Burkina Faso is already making their mark on the EV world (no need for Tesla engineer refugees) and even though we’ll never see these in the USA or Europe, it’s pretty darn exciting what is happening there:

          Burkina Faso Unveils First Indigenous Electric Vehicle

          Burkinabe engineers are in charge of the design and manufacturing processes, showcasing the country’s growing capabilities in the automotive sector.

          Burkina Faso has made history by unveiling its first 100 per cent Indigenous electric car brand, ITAOUA. This marks a significant milestone in the country’s industrial and technological development. This achievement highlights the nation’s determination to become a technological hub in West Africa.

          ITAOUA, the Burkinabe car manufacturer behind this innovation, has designed and manufactured the electric vehicle entirely using local resources and expertise. The car boasts impressive features, including a range of 330 kilometres (205 miles) after just a 30-minute charge, making it ideal for urban and rural environments.
35. Wukchumni June 15, 2025 at 3:09 pm

    Little truce coup
    You don’t know what I got (you don’t know what I got)
    Little truce coup
    You don’t know what I got

    Well, I’m not bragging Bibi, so don’t put me down (truce coup)
    But I just had the biggest military parade in town (truce coup)
    When something comes up to me, we don’t even try (truce coup)
    ‘Cause even if I had a peace agreement, man I know it wont fly

    It’s my little truce coup
    You don’t know what I got
    (My little truce coup)
    (You don’t know what I got)

    Just a little truce coup with faux promises made (truce coup)
    But if it works out the Zionists will be made in the shade (truce coup)
    IDF is reported to be relieved, and they’re stroked and adored
    Despite a bunch of high rises in Tel Aviv with the top end floored

    It’s my little truce coup
    You don’t know what I got
    (My little truce coup)
    (You don’t know what I got)

    Israel’s got a competition crutch with an Iron Dome on the floor
    And she swats like a kitten when the Iranian missiles roar
    And if that ain’t enough to make you flip your lid
    There’s one more thing, they got a genocide going, Uncle Sugar

    And claiming not to know when the war light turns green (truce coup)
    Well, he blows diplomacy out of fashion like you never seen (truce coup)
    Tariffs got pushed out of shape, and it’s hard to steer (truce coup)
    When his administration lasts all four years

    It’s my little truce coup
    You don’t know what I got
    (My little truce coup)
    (You don’t know what I got)
    It’s my little truce coup
    You don’t know what I got

    Little Deuce Coupe, by the Beach Boys

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fk6O_paS0hY
36. Wukchumni June 15, 2025 at 3:49 pm

    The War Prayer, by Mark Twain

    It was a time of great and exalting excitement. The country was up in arms, the war was on, in every breast burned the holy fire of patriotism … on every hand and far down the receding and fading spread of roofs and balconies a fluttering wilderness of flags flashed in the sun … nightly the packed mass meetings listened, panting, to patriot oratory which stirred the deepest deeps of their hearts, and which they interrupted at briefest intervals with cyclones of applause, the tears running down their cheeks the while; in the churches the pastors preached devotion to flag and country, and invoked the God of Battles beseeching His aid in our good cause in outpourings of fervid eloquence which moved every listener. …

    Sunday morning came — next day the battalions would leave for the front; the church was filled; the volunteers were there, their young faces alight with martial dreams — visions of the stern advance, the gathering momentum, the rushing charge, the flashing sabers, the flight of the foe, the tumult, the enveloping smoke, the fierce pursuit, the surrender! Then home from the war, bronzed heroes, welcomed, adored, submerged in golden seas of glory! … The service proceeded; a war chapter from the Old Testament was read; the first prayer was said …

    Then came the “long” prayer. None could remember the like of it for passionate pleading and moving and beautiful language. The burden of its supplication was, that an ever-merciful and benignant Father of us all would watch over our noble young soldiers, and aid, comfort, and encourage them in their patriotic work….

    An aged stranger entered and moved with slow and noiseless step up the main aisle, his eyes fixed upon the minister, his long body clothed in a robe that reached to his feet, his head bare, his white hair descending in a frothy cataract to his shoulders, his seamy face unnaturally pale, pale even to ghastliness. … he ascended to the preacher’s side and stood there waiting. …

    The stranger touched his arm, motioned him to step aside — which the startled minister did — and took his place. During some moments he surveyed the spellbound audience with solemn eyes, in which burned an uncanny light; then in a deep voice he said:

    “I come from the Throne — bearing a message from Almighty God!” …

    “God’s servant and yours has prayed his prayer. Has he paused and taken thought? Is it one prayer? No, it is two — one uttered, the other not. Both have reached the ear of Him Who heareth all supplications, the spoken and the unspoken. Ponder this — keep it in mind. If you would beseech a blessing upon yourself, beware! lest without intent you invoke a curse upon a neighbor at the same time. If you pray for the blessing of rain upon your crop which needs it, by that act you are possibly praying for a curse upon some neighbor’s crop which may not need rain and can be injured by it.

    “You have heard your servant’s prayer — the uttered part of it. I am commissioned of God to put into words the other part of it — that part which the pastor — and also you in your hearts — fervently prayed silently. And ignorantly and unthinkingly? God grant that it was so! You heard these words: ‘Grant us the victory, O Lord our God!’ … When you have prayed for victory you have prayed for many unmentioned results which follow victory–must follow it, cannot help but follow it. Upon the listening spirit of God fell also the unspoken part of the prayer. He commandeth me to put it into words. Listen!

    “O Lord our Father, our young patriots, idols of our hearts, go forth to battle — be Thou near them! With them — in spirit — we also go forth from the sweet peace of our beloved firesides to smite the foe. O Lord our God, help us to tear their soldiers to bloody shreds with our shells; help us to cover their smiling fields with the pale forms of their patriot dead; help us to drown the thunder of the guns with the shrieks of their wounded, writhing in pain; help us to lay waste their humble homes with a hurricane of fire; help us to wring the hearts of their unoffending widows with unavailing grief; help us to turn them out roofless with little children to wander unfriended the wastes of their desolated land in rags and hunger and thirst, sports of the sun flames of summer and the icy winds of winter, broken in spirit, worn with travail, imploring Thee for the refuge of the grave and denied it — for our sakes who adore Thee, Lord, blast their hopes, blight their lives, protract their bitter pilgrimage, make heavy their steps, water their way with their tears, stain the white snow with the blood of their wounded feet! We ask it, in the spirit of love, of Him Who is the Source of Love, and Who is the ever-faithful refuge and friend of all that are sore beset and seek His aid with humble and contrite hearts. Amen.

    (After a pause.) “Ye have prayed it; if ye still desire it, speak! The messenger of the Most High waits!”

    It was believed afterward that the man was a lunatic, because there was no sense in what he said.
    1. Tom Stone June 15, 2025 at 5:20 pm

       Feral Press has a paperback edition of “War is a Racket” by General Smedley Butler, twice winner of the Congressional Medal of Honor, at a reasonable price.
       It’s a bit more than 20 pages, illustrated.
       The quote I usually see is just the first page, all of it is worth a read.
       If you are deluded enough to think that there is such a thing as a good war, visit the burn unit at your local VA hospital, then the head wound unit.
       Only the most dire necessity can justify a War and the price is always too high.
       1. ambrit June 15, 2025 at 7:09 pm

          I worked with an Army vet who had a head would from combat near Kandahar, Afghanistan.
          He once told me that if our son should be drafted, to either get him out of the country or shoot him in the foot. Later, he used the modern version of the GI Bill to go back to university and engage in his original interest in life. I wish him well.
    2. Jonathan Holland Becnel June 16, 2025 at 12:21 am

       Cross posted on r/stupidpol
37. Wukchumni June 15, 2025 at 4:20 pm

    Remember the Alamogordo!

    We’re a month away of the fourth turning from the dawn of the atomic age and seem on the edge of a nuclear holocaust. They’re notoriously hard to get ready for, frankly.

    MAD* was mutually assured destruction-the threat of which kept yours truly alive during my stint in the Cold War, but now the players are simply mad, where you fold the last page into a mushroom cloud.

    * also the best magazine ever for a budding juvenile delinquent
38. AG June 15, 2025 at 4:26 pm

    re: Gaza

    ´cause I just stumbled across this very minor old news:

    Documentary about Palestinian-American writer & activist Edward Said among winners at CPH:DOX industry awards
    28 March 2025
    https://www.screendaily.com/news/doc-about-palestinian-activist-edward-said-among-winners-at-cphdox-industry-awards/5203453.article?referrer=RSS

    I doubt this was ever reported beyond CPH:DOX.
    (CPH used to be a highly respected Danish documentary film festival.)

    I remember late 2023 in TAZ German daily there was a demeaning and insulting long text about Edward Said being of course covertly antisemitic. The author tried to direct Said´s own neocolonialist writing in a sickly twisted manner via “inverted new neocolonial studies” against Said.

    If it serves the purpose Germans still are capable of “originality” in thinking…

    RESPONSIBLE STATECRAFT pointed this double standard out regarding Israel vs Iran.

    Of course RS is not the space to go as deep as to question the notion that Iranians must be “handled” in a special manner as if they were insane and therefore may not have nukes unlike that other state. Also note how Mamedov just uses the term “rules-based order” as if that has ever been legally implemented anywhere by an entitled body. It is still and always was a criminally illegal concept.

    So some ideological pillars are firmly in place also with an Eldar Mamedov

    But fwiw:

    Pure Orwell: Europe condemns Iran for attacks on its own territory
    In their hypocrisy over Israel, EU elites once again expose the rotting corpse of the so-called ‘rules based order’

    by Eldar Mamedov
    June 14, 2025
    https://responsiblestatecraft.org/europe-reaction-israel-attack/
    1. Carolinian June 15, 2025 at 5:44 pm

       A more recent Responsible Statecraft

       https://responsiblestatecraft.org/israel-iran-war/

       Parsi suggests that Trump will have to shut down the Israelis, not the Iranians.

       And new on RT, Iranian source sees and raises Bibi’s trash talk and suggests strikes in the Occupied Territories are in the cards.

       https://www.rt.com/news/619398-iran-prepares-shut-down-israel/

       Of course the ultimate Iranian move is to shut off the Gulf. Since regime change didn’t work where is the winning strategy here for Israel or the US either should Trump foolishly attack?

       And it’s not like the whole chain of events hasn’t been mapped out long ago which is why no other president has given Israel the green light.
39. juno mas June 15, 2025 at 4:50 pm

    So it looks like the “Oreshnik moment” that John Helmer has been discussing has been provided by Iran’s “Fatah-1” on Israel? Is the “Sampson moment” nearing?
40. Tom Stone June 15, 2025 at 4:51 pm

    I’ve been thinking about Trump’s dream of having his bust on Mt Rushmore alongside lesser Presidents, and that’s not the best location for a bust of Trump.
    It’s out of the way and in the Winter it’s downright cold is S Dakota.
    Florida would be a better location, year round, and many more people would see it if were on the highest point near Miami.
    It’s a man made Mountain, an example of American society’s abundance .
    1. Kouros June 15, 2025 at 5:14 pm

       Such a statue could be used to gage the advancing searise. The term “cubitus of death” comes to mind…
       1. Edward June 15, 2025 at 7:19 pm

          Our very own Ozimandias for Charlton Heston to find!
    2. ambrit June 15, 2025 at 7:14 pm

       Funny you should mention Miami. I remember noticing that the highest “natural” feature just north of Miami is a huge built-up trash landfill. A suitable venue for a Trump Display. Also, would a panegyric extolling his virtues be a “hugeiography?”
       1. Acacia June 15, 2025 at 9:46 pm

          “yugeiography” ;)
          1. ambrit June 15, 2025 at 10:05 pm

             I bow down and make praise. I never thought to associate our Dear Leader with the anime character Yu-Gi-Oh! Which, I read, means “Game King” in Japanese. How appropriate. Next up, The Donald in the new, very short run mini-series/game show “Devil’s Apprentice!” (With obligatory warning in very small print: “Many will enter. No one will win.”)
41. Ann June 15, 2025 at 6:28 pm

    No reporting on this, as far as I have seen:

    Kristi Noem said, right before they dragged Padilla out of the room for wanting to ask a question:

    “We are not going away,” adding, “We are staying here to liberate the city from the socialists and the burdensome leadership that this governor and that this mayor have placed on this country and what they have tried to insert into the city.” (video of her saying this at the link below)

    then,

    “Attorney General Pam Bondi who Wednesday threatened even more action to take control of California. Bondi told reporters that she fully backed “bringing in the National Guard” and “bringing in the Marine…to protect our federal buildings, to protect highways, to protect the citizens.”

    AG Bondi then alarmingly added, “We’re not scared to go further. We’re not frightened to do something else if we need to.”

    https://deanobeidallah.substack.com/p/why-is-kristi-noems-bone-chilling
42. Neutrino June 15, 2025 at 6:53 pm

    COVID and shot commentary, Father’s Day edition.

    I hope to see randomized control trials and other verifiable standards applied and enforced. That would be a step in the right direction for any parents and non-parents, so that the level of awareness and trust about the risks and benefits of each shot has been thoroughly researched and vetted in a transparent process.

    That would be helpful to begin restoring more confidence among the populace. More steps will be necessary so why not start now!
43. Carolinian June 15, 2025 at 9:18 pm

    This just in.

    https://news.antiwar.com/2025/06/15/sources-us-will-enter-israels-war-with-iran/
    1. ambrit June 15, 2025 at 9:39 pm

       I’m beginning to wonder what sort of kompromat Mossad has on Trump.
       I’m also wondering if Israel has threatened to use their atomics on Iran if America does not join in the war.
       Anyway, imagine the shock if an American B-2 bomber were shot down, or an American aircraft carrier were to be sunk. That would really be “Game over man! Game over!”
       1. Carolinian June 15, 2025 at 9:59 pm

          So will the real surprise attack be when Americans wake up tomorrow morning and find out we are at war with Iran because Donald Trump said so? No kings indeed.

          Of course the above is still just a rumor. To me the remarkable thing is the degree to which the media are downplaying the whole situation. How many other than the NY Post have even reported that the IDF headquarters was hit?

          I really hope the above is wrong, or at least the certainty of it.
          1. ambrit June 15, 2025 at 10:17 pm

             As I fade out of this vale of tears, I reflect that we are now subject to the malign influences of, religious fanatics, socio-political reactionaries, libertarian ideologues, and the just plain detached from reality.
             As Trotsky is supposed to have said; “You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.”
             I make resort to an old word signifying the inexorable nature of fate: wyrd.
             See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wyrd
             Stay safe. Be strong.
             1. Daryl June 15, 2025 at 11:28 pm

                Aye take care and be safe. There will still be opportunities to do good in “the world to come” to borrow a phrase from biblical eschatology. Seems appropriate as its proponents are now on the doorstep of ushering it in.
          2. Young June 15, 2025 at 10:49 pm

             Rest assured. Reza Pahlavi is ready and willing to take control in Iran. He has been groomed for this job since he was chased away with his mommy and daddy.
             I saw his picture with Natanyahoo on BBC World News broadcast today. He looked so much like Ahmad Chalabi (remember him?)

             On a related news, Pahlavi sold his family estate in U.S. to Zelensky in preperation for his move to Iran. Buyer’s agent was CIA Relocation Services, Inc. Seller was represented by Pentagon Reality. The mandatory “10% for the Big Guy” fee has already been prepaid.

             /s
             1. The Rev Kev June 15, 2025 at 11:03 pm

                Reza Pahlavi is a real good friend of Israel and was only in the country a coupla years ago but I don’t think that anybody in Iran wants to see the return of the Peacock Throne. All those Iranian expatriates in places like the US are all in on it but how many in Iran would want to see that lot again? They would be like the Iraqi expatriates – just a bunch of carpet baggers.
                1. hk June 16, 2025 at 4:44 am

                   Pahlavi dynasty has a strange history. The founder, the first Reza Pahlavi, was a commoner from an ethnic minority (he came from a Caucasian tribe whose language was still an Iranian dialect that was closely related to Armenian and Georgian and his mother is thought to be originally from one of these countries, then part of Russian Empire, thus uncertainty.).

                   He started out as a common soldier in the “Cossack Brigade,” composed of Caucasian ethnic minorities and led by foreign officers. He rose through the ranks over the years, but he was made the commander by Edmund Ironside, the head of the British interventionist force (that was formerly stationed in Baku as part of the intervention against the Bolsheviks). In 1921, Pahlavi (he didn’t have a surname until he became the head of the Cossack Brigade) seized power in a coup (Britain definitely played a role here, but details are murky) and made himself the emperor in 1925.

                   He disappointed the British by not cooperating with them much in the following years, until British decided early in Workd War II that Iran was too important to be left as a neutral (there were claims and accusations of German activities there, but later research pretty much showed that there wasn’t much if any) and decided to invade in full force in a joint operation with the Soviets in August, 1941–really, an unprovoked and naked act of aggression that is mostly forgotten now.) Shockingly, the modernized army that Pahlavi built up crumbled like a sack of potatoes and Iran was conquered in just a month, with many Iranians siding with the invaders. The first Reza was deposed and sent to exile, while his more pliant son was installed as the new shah although the country remained under occupation until 1946. (At which time the new shah, with Anglo American backing, stared down Soviet attempts at creating independent ethnic states in Northwestern Iran (Azeri and Kurdish, I think.)

                   This is where what exactly happened in Iran is confusing to me. Somehow, after British and Soviet forces left, Iran was reorganized as a constitutional monarchy. This is where Mossadegh comes in. The power struggle between the shah and Mossadegh and how exactly CIA recruited the shah to be the front man for their coup are very jumbled and murky. I will say that the overthrow of Mossadegh was not as straightforward as people in the West believe (at minimum, Mossadegh overplayed his hand and created a constitutional crisis–although this does not mean that the royal dictatorship that Pahlavi the Younger set up was not a brutal tyranny.)
                   1. PlutoniumKun June 16, 2025 at 6:30 am

                      Perhaps its a paucity in my reading, but I’ve often found that period of roughly 1945-50 to be a huge gap in my historical knowledge. All over the world things ‘happened’ in that period with very profound impacts on the world today, yet so often those events are still opaque. A lot of history books more or less skip over it (in my experience). A lot of historians who claim to know what went on behind the scenes have an agenda. It doesn’t help that there was a big ‘first mover’ advantage in the period when it came to writing history, as Churchill understood – he sowed a lot of false trails that are still leading history writers astray.

                      As for Mossedagh, from my reading he was definitely one of the ‘good guys’ if such exist in those circumstances, but he also mishandled things quite badly. He overplayed a weak hand as you say. Sadly, its historically rare to find a leader who genuinely has his peoples best interests at heart while still being cunning and ruthless enough to win the battles that need winning.
    2. Acacia June 15, 2025 at 9:54 pm

       If Trump is foolish enough to do that, Iran might be even more likely to close the Strait of Hormuz.

       And what of Pakistan, whose Senate just unanimously voted to support Iran in the conflict with Israel ?

       “In this time of trial, we stand by Iran in every way. We will protect Iranian interests. Iranians are our brothers, and their grief and pain are shared.” — Khawaja Asif, Defense Minister.

       They’ve got nukes. Would they share them with Iran?

       Reports are that Iran’s Fattah-1 hypersonic MRBM can carry nuclear warheads.
44. skippy June 16, 2025 at 1:22 am

    Interesting missile launch …

    The Iron Dome fired two missiles to intercept Iran’s missiles, but the interceptors looped back toward the defense battery itself and set it on fire.

    Moments later, the Iranian missiles successfully hit the Nevatim Airbase in the Negev.

    https://x.com/SuppressedNws/status/1934441927203557725
    1. The Rev Kev June 16, 2025 at 2:20 am

       The cope is strong with this one-

       https://xcancel.com/grok/status/1934455728271663171#m

       Don’t believe your lying eyes.
       1. skippy June 16, 2025 at 3:02 am

          I that note … I hear that Israel is banning all photos/videos whilst air raid sirens are active – cough a black out. Intercepts and missile impacts.
          1. The Rev Kev June 16, 2025 at 3:11 am

             Isn’t that what the Ukraine does as well? I bet that those in the West Bank are filming everything that happens and spreading it to all.
             1. AG June 16, 2025 at 8:31 am

                >”I hear that Israel is banning all photos/videos whilst air raid sirens are active”
                – “Isn’t that what the Ukraine does as well?”

                Wasn´t aware of that. But it makes total sense.

                p.s. re: Israel – Ted Postol said explicitly that when he tried it was almost impossible to come by footage documenting Iron Dome performance and results on the ground (debris vs. real damage). There was some news footage which he used. But obviously authorities internally knew and know very well that the system doesn´t work. At once IDF would confiscate everything that could be used as evidence.

                Nonetheless that is not enough for the FRG to not purchase Arrows…So much about “special relationships” – they are intended for companies and the elites, not the people.
                1. Yves Smith June 16, 2025 at 9:15 am

                   They have military censors.
                   1. AG June 17, 2025 at 5:35 pm

                      A fact still completely neglected by German media.
                      1. mega June 18, 2025 at 6:02 am

                         Completely neglecting facts is what they are paid for.

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