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Links 6/21/2025

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#COVID-19/Pandemics

I have no idea if this study is methodologically sound. But it seems likely to make the rounds:

Climate/Environment

Climate change impact on food ‘like everyone giving up breakfast’ Telegraph

How Extreme Heat Will Eventually Make Much of the Earth Completely Unlivable Laughing Squid (resilc)

Mexico’s Food Supply at Risk from Extreme Weather CGTN America

Congestion pricing in Manhattan is a predictable success Economist

UK farm swaps milk for cow cuddles as floods and food prices take their toll Reuters

China?

How China got the US over a rare earth barrel Asia Times

China’s J-35A courting buyers barred from US F-35s Asia Times (Kevin W). BWAHAHA. Thailand managed to dodge buying the flying pork called F-35s by acting as if they could not spend ~10 years building the infrastructure the US insisted upon before getting the jets. That does not mean that they will be buyers of Chinese jets, but illustrates how extreme US demands are in connection with F-35s.

China’s payment system spreads across Africa and Asia amid US trade war South China Morning Post

Africa

African state strips French nuclear giant of uranium mine RT (Kevin W)

Jihadists on 200 motorbikes storm Niger army base BBC

South of the Border

Why is Latin America so violent? Vodou Economics. Moi: I am sure some readers will take offense with the title. What about, say, Uruguay? Costa Rica? resilc: “I used to hear Russian all the time while living in Guatemala early 2000s. Lots of small jets around too.”

European Disunion

Spain risks derailing NATO summit by resisting 5% defence spending goal Reuters

Macron Says Europe Must Become ‘Space Power’ Again PhyOrg

Are police officers committing a crime? Tagesschau via machine translation (guurst)

Employees at firm that supplied grape-pickers for champagne on trial for human trafficking Guardian (resilc)

Old Blighty

Pro-Palestine protesters deface two aircraft at RAF base Guardian (resilc)

Israel v. Iran

* *

Iran’s ‘MONSTERS’ Bombard Tel Aviv, Overwhelm Iron Dome | Missiles Turn Fireballs, Dance In Sky Times of India and Iran s 3 AM attack makes sleepless Israel panic 18th wave of Missiles set fire to the buildings Hindustan Times and Iran Launches Most Powerful Missile Attack on Israel – Tel Aviv Declares State of Emergency Jet Tempur Indonesia. Mind you, Israel has heavy censorship and is attempting to suppress videos of air strikes.

Iranian ballistic missiles hit “strategic points” in Israeli port city of Haifa War Zone

Israel Buckles as Iran War Shifts to New Drag-Out Phase Simplicius

* *

Forced to Wait for Trump, Israel Faces Strategic Dilemma in Iran New York Times (Kevin W). Note the continued misdirection, that the issue is attacking nuclear sites. Per the tweet below, Iran has said it’s removed pretty much everything important, in particular the enriched uranium. So will the resolution be for Iran to graciously let the US and Israel attack one site to demonstrate their impotence (to the world) but let Trump save face in the US?

Note I am skeptical of the idea that Trump’s delay is for any other reason than to get military assets in place. The latest from Larry Johnson:

From my contacts within the US military, all signs indicate that we’re on-the-luge (a fast snow sled) at this point and there’s no way to get off. We are hurtling downhill… too much is already in motion. Even if Trump decides tomorrow to call everything off, we’ve already set up and committed enough support assets so that the Israeli Defense Force has everything it needs. Reversing course seems very unlikely now because of bureaucratic momentum.

Douglas Macgregor provides independent confirmation from his sources in Col. Douglas Macgregor: America’s Attack on Iran Could Start WW3 Glenn Diesen, YouTube

U.S. Races to Defend Israel as It Burns Through Missile Interceptors Wall Street Journal

Israel is running out of interceptor missiles. China’s export bans mean they can’t be replaced Kevin Walmsley

Looks like this was a part of this cyberattack that did succeed, see: Iran thwarts Israel-orchestrated cyber attacks on banking network, state TV PressTV

Big if true:

Fear and shock as Israelis question motives behind attack on Iran Middle East Eye

War With Iran: Animal Abandonment in Israel Soars Haaretz

* *

European powers to offer Iran ‘diplomatic solution’ to conflict: Macron France24 (Kevin W). Included for sake of completeness, but this was never going to go anywhere (Simplicius describes above how the Iranians are not budging)

How Iran Shot Down Israeli F-35s Using Chinese Tactics China Academy (Paul R). The problem is that these claims are inconsistence with evidence from Simplicius and others, that Israeli planes have not, save one itty bitty incursion, entered Iranian air space.

Israel’s Wars are Colonial, Contradicting Biblical Values Juan Cole. resilc: “Just as Arendt prophesied, there may be no end to “existential threats” if Israel stays her course of equating safety and security with repression and domination.”

Schumer, Democratic Leaders Failing to Stop Trump Iran War Intercept

THE PRESIDENTS OF RUSSIA AND CHINA ANNOUNCE THE CARDINAL POINTS OF THE OBVIOUS John Helmer. A careful reading of statements that comes to different conclusions than the ones of most YouTubers

New Not-So-Cold War

Meeting with heads of international news agencies President of Russia

Brief report from the front, June 20, 2025 Marat Khairullin

How NATO military doctrine failed Ukraine on the battlefield Alexander Vershinin, Responsible Statecraft (Alexander Mercouris)

Big Brother is Watching You Watch

DHS Warns of Sharp Rise in Chinese-Made Signal Jammers The Register

Kansas City Public Schools Is Hiring A School Spy to Investigate Students Kansas City Defender. Paur R:

Not sure if this is alarmist. Appears to be a surveillance gig aiming to check that kids aren’t attending the school from outside the district. Tie-ins to ICE etc presumed, not good for minority families according to the article.

Imperial Collapse Watch

Israel-Iran conflict ‘drives the final nail into the coffin’ of post-war world order France24

The Collapse of Restraint: Iran, Israel, and the Fragility of Global Order Modern Diplomacy

Trump 2.0

Senate parliamentarian knocks pieces out of Trump’s megabill The Hill

Northeastern Governors and Canadian Premiers Unite Against Trump American Prospect (Robin K). So will Yankeestan secede?

* * *

Gabbard Falls in Line, Claims Iran Close to Nukes Antiwar.com

* * *

SCOOP: USAID Being ‘Forced’ to Award Millions to Disastrous Gaza Humanitarian Foundation Zeteo

* * *

ProPublica Sued the FDA for Withholding Records About Drug Safety ProPublica (Robin K)

GOP Clown Car

Republicans, Not Democrats, Have the Messaging Problem Washington Monthly

GOP reps want same benefits for Americans serving in Israel army Responsible Statecraft. resilc: “Over 20,000 American citizens are currently defending Israel from Hamas terrorists, risking their lives for the betterment of our ally,” said Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R-PA), in a recent statement.“

Immigration

Mahmoud Khalil is released from ICE detention but faces new charges in immigration court WSWS

Deportations threaten South Omaha neighborhood built by meatpacking and immigrants Investigate Midwest (Robin K)

Regime Change Means More Migrants for the West – The American Conservative (resilc). The US is working this out only now?

Supremes

Supreme Court widens court options for vaping companies pushing back against FDA rules Associated Press (Kevin W)

Democrat Death Wish

Rahm Emanuel: 2025’s worst throwback He’s the Machiavelli of Democratic capitulation Unherd

Woke Watch

The Great Disappearing Trans Freakout Matt Taibbi. IM Doc does not agree. See his comment.

Mr. Market is Moody

CPI Data Quality Declining Apollo Academy (resilc)

Oil, war and tariffs tear up markets’ central bank roadmap Reuters

Higher risk, lower growth, less investment: UN trade arm issues downbeat global economic outlook CNBC

Europe’s central banks are all cutting rates, even as tariffs tie the Fed’s hands Politico

AI

ChatGPT use linked to cognitive decline: MIT research The Hill (resilc)

CEOs Using AI to Terrorize Their Employees Futurism

AI Models From Major Companies Resort To Blackmail in Stress Tests Anthropic

Applebee’s and IHOP Plan to Introduce AI in Restaurants Wall Street Journal. resilc: “

The Bezzle

Musk’s empire showing signs of “rapid unscheduled disassembly” Boing Boing

Class Warfare

Antidote du jour. John U: “Dusty the Adventure Dog enjoying the sunset @ Tecopa hot springs”:

A bonus:

A second bonus:

And a third:

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

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268 comments

  1. The Rev Kev

    ‘Tanita Tikaram💙
    @tanita_tikaram
    I’ve just tested positive for Covid . The 2nd time in 2 months, symptoms very sore throat . I thought you couldn’t get Covid twice in 2 months 😵‍💫 !! Any health professionals out there who know what’s going on with this strain . Thank you 🙏🏼’

    When I think back to 2020, I am sure that the Israelis were finding this to be true with the now extinct original strain and it was being published about this happening. There was a link on NC way back then that talked about it. And yet five years on people are still being taken by surprise by this happening

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    1. KidDoc

      The containment team where I worked, back when there was an attempt to restrain Covid, counted any reinfections for three months after the date of (initial, for that infection) positive PCR test, as a continuation of the original infection. Also, if someone got an infection soon after vaccination, yet before 14 days after the second jab (Pfizer or Moderna), the infection type was counted as one in “unvaccinated” rather than “breakthrough”. Our team mostly followed the CDC, with a brief delay.

      Studies were/are often vague as to how peri-vax infections are classified, which muddies the data and frustrates accurate interpretation. I found, when calling folks who tested positive, that a fair number went to get the vaccine right after they thought they were or might have been exposed. This exposure data was sometimes used for closer evaluation of outbreaks, but not for routine Covid reports. Rebound infections became common and widely recognized after Paxlovid, adding yet more confusion.

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    2. KidDoc

      Early Covid variants gave substantially better protection (yet incomplete) from reinfection than Omicron. We have much less data and evaluation of new variants, like Nimbus, so these risks may or may not be worked out over time.

      Reply ↓
  2. JohnA

    Re Pro-Palestine protesters deface two aircraft at RAF base

    Starmer is fixing this! He has declared the Palestine Action Group a terrorist organisation and anyone supporting it is now liable for a 14 year prison sentence. Protest will no longer be allowed to hinder Israeli genocide.

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  3. The Rev Kev

    “Friday Video Tsunami… It’s All About Israel, Iran and Trump”

    ‘Despite Donald Trump’s statement that he’ll make his decision about attacking Iran within two weeks, I don’t think he is going to delay. From my contacts within the US military, all signs indicate that we’re on-the-luge (a fast snow sled) at this point and there’s no way to get off. We are hurtling downhill… too much is already in motion. Even if Trump decides tomorrow to call everything off, we’ve already set up and committed enough support assets so that the Israeli Defense Force has everything it needs. Reversing course seems very unlikely now because of bureaucratic momentum.’

    This happened at the outbreak of WW1. Each power had their finely-tuned mobilization plans that had been decades in the making. If I remember right, you would have troops gather at an army base who, when properly organized, would march down to the train station to catch a train to the border. This was the era when train movements were the big thing. The now empty army base would then take in the next formation that would be readied for their own departure to the train station. In some ways, it was like a revolver in action. And that was the problem. Once launched, you could not stop it or else units would be stacked up, the logistics would be thrown into chaos and train schedules would fall over. Kaiser Wilhelm started to panic when he saw Europe fall into a catastrophic war and tried to stop Germany’s mobilization but was told by his generals that it was not possible once begun.

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    1. hemeantwell

      Cautionary note: I’ve seen various interpretations of that claim by Willie’s generals. IIRC, the most plausible idea was that of course the mobilization could be halted, but there would be chaos for a while and it would leave Germany vulnerable if other parties reneged on their commitment to halt mobilization. How that could even begin to apply to what I hope can still be thought of as the threat theater Trump/Israel is putting on is not clear to me.

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      1. The Rev Kev

        Probably the Neocons told Trump that he has to move all those forces into the Middle east to give him leverage over Iran as well as give him more choices. But now they would be telling him that with all those forces in place that he simply has to use them as they cannot be maintained there for a long time, certainly not the carriers. That he has to go now.

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          1. The Rev Kev

            More like a Mexican standoff. The military can hit Iran very hard and I would imagine that they would go after Iran’s infrastructure like it’s electricity grid, water facilities, sewerage plants, telecommunications hubs, etc. But Iran can hit back hard at the dozens of US bases scattered around the Middle east. They can hit the US Navy base in Bahrain too as it is the home to US Naval Forces Central Command and the United States 5th Fleet. There are a lot of targets there alone that they could hit. Bahrain might protest but screw those guys if they can’t take a joke-

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naval_Support_Activity_Bahrain

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            1. mrsyk

              One wildcard is the implications generated by a potential poor performance by the F-35 on the global stage. Above my pay grade to calculate the degree of bad, but it would have an effect on the global perception on the US’s ability to project power.
              From the used car salesman’s point of view, this might put a damper on sales.

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              1. The Rev Kev

                Can you imagine what would happen if the Iranians shot down a B-2 bomber or an F-22 fighter? And Trump would be rightly blamed for it.

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                2. vao

                  The Serbs shot down a F-117 stealth aircraft, and damaged another one to such an extent that it had to be scrapped after limping to a nearby NATO base.

                  No political crisis ensued.

                  It was just a further justification to bomb Serbian civilian infrastructure (bridges, power plants, TV building, etc) instead of military objectives — which had just proved to be too dangerous in addition to being too resilient.

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                4. skippy

                  Wellie Rev Kev …. it really matters on what target/s they want to hit and with what ordnance. The so called bunker busters require flying over the target, deep within Iran. I would think Iran would have the best intercept missiles guarding these sites, saved from wasting them on the weaker attacks previously.

                  Then again the 4++ SU-35s have yet to be used as far as I know. Their pay loads – https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/su-35-missile-loadouts-how-russia-equips-its-top-fighter-for-all-kinds-of-missions.

                  Of which: “The R-37M’s large size and weight means that only four missiles can be carried by each fighter. Nevertheless, the missile compensates with its high performance including a globally unrivalled Mach 6 speed, a high 60kg payload, and a very long 400km engagement range. The missile is not only capable of neutralising fighters, but also provides an effective means of bypassing enemy fighter units to engage high value assets under their protection such as bombers and airborne early warning aircraft.” – snip

                  This is all speculative albeit something that has to be in the back of Western minds when deploying strategic air frames like the B-2. I can only imaging the psychological effect on say the US with all the other dramas happening internally if one or more brand name air frames get taken out. Seeing Trumps reaction would be even more interesting.

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            2. NotThePilot

              More like a Mexican standoff. The military can hit Iran very hard and I would imagine that they would go after Iran’s infrastructure like it’s electricity grid, water facilities, sewerage plants, telecommunications hubs, etc….

              This is probably what the US will ultimately try, and appears to be what the Israelis have already resorted to. It still fails to account for something beyond the correlation of forces though (which already isn’t in US/Israel’s favor).

              Iran has always been a highly decentralized society, even more so than the US in many ways. For example, last I remember seeing the statistic, around 1/3 of the Iranian population is rural; it only tops out at maybe 20% in America, and even much of that is highly dependent on economic links to the cities. Along with that, I imagine they’ve been assuming since the revolution that the US will eventually attack their infrastructure as a strategic base-case. So they write-off massive centralized plant or investments and focus on distributed improvements.

              In a way, Tehran is sort of the unplanned, politically sticky exception that proves the rule. The government has been trying to shrink the city and shift government functions out of there for decades. A giant, inevitable earthquake is the main reason, but moments like this also show the logic. Yet again, in their own clueless way, Trump & the Israelis are actually doing the Iranian government a huge favor by finally scaring people out of the city (especially the wealthier, bougie types).

              Even if the US decides to go full terror-bombing, I expect it will become quickly frustrated with how spread-out and independent even Iranian civilian infrastructure is. I’m not an expert and could be wrong, but that’s my impression from the little I’ve read about Iranian development projects.

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    2. Samuel Conner

      It sounds to me like a cop-out — our mobilized armies (of millions of infantry) have no-where to go except over the border.

      The forces involved in this conflict are far smaller. If the generals are saying that the plan can’t be reversed once set in motion, I suspect that’s because they want a fight.

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      1. The Rev Kev

        The US can’t do an invasion of Iran and those days are gone. The manpower is not there. So what they would be talking about is missiles and bombs launched from stand-off platforms like planes and ships.

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      3. Old Jake

        Someone, I don’t remember who, perhaps Ian Welsh, did a calculation of actual combatants available to the u.s. It came to about 100,000. The rest are support, logistics, generals etc.

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        1. scott s.

          Don’t know about the definition of “actual combatants”, but I think the decision was taken to place much of the combat power in the Army Guard, under the theory that the country as a whole should have “skin in the game”.

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    3. Wukchumni

      We seem to have edged into A Taste of Armageddon in terms of waging war, and even though Shatner is nearing 95, could we use him to stop festivities again?

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    4. ilsm

      Early 1980’s on I did war support plans for mostly units’ generation and deploying…… I do not recall any “redeployment” planning. That is; we got the unit and all its stuff “there”, but never thought about getting it back home/

      That was NATO contingency plans, maybe the thought was “it would go nuke so why think about after”….?

      There are officer doing what I did (in exercises) and working long hours!

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      1. The Rev Kev

        I once asked a British soldier back in the 80s what his most important piece of his kit was. Without batting an eye, he said his ferry ticket for Calais-to-Dover.

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        2. ilsm

          In olden days it was: bullets, beans and blood.

          In 1990 I had a job planning fuel for the theater.

          Gasoline kerosene and naval bunker had to be added for the modern war.

          I wonder if they have brought in enough Mil Spec kerosene at Prince Sultan

          If you deploy somewhere that U.S. has played in you should have chem bio suits at hand.

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      2. scott s.

        Since the 75th anniversary of the start of the Korean War is fast approaching, it reminds me of the problems MacArthur had. The Incheon landing was a success, so he decided he could repeat it at Wonsan. X Corps was kept separate from 8th USA, and Incheon port was completely blocked while back-loading X Corps.

        Turns out by the time X Corps / 1st Mar Div was ready Wonsan had already been taken. Meanwhile back-loading of X Corps prevented 8th army logistics from building up sufficient supplies for that army.

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    5. curlydan

      I have a solution… appeal to Trump’s vanity. Tell him if he can stop the U.S. from formally entering the war with Iran, then he can win the Nobel Peace Prize. I’m sure he’d be intrigued, and it may the only thing to stop the motions of these massive wheels moving us toward war.

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      1. Polar Socialist

        When I heard this morning that Pakistan has formally nominated Trump for Nobel peace prize, my first though was that the purpose is to prevent him in his vanity from bombing Iran (until they give him the price).

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      2. Wukchumni

        By Benedict Donald’s edict of a fortnight in the lull, it falls squarely on July 4th, and if a meaningless in the scheme of things event such as the 250th anniversary of the Army warranted a $45 million military parade on the exact date, imagine us going to war with Iran on Independence Day?

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        1. NakedEmperor

          Brilliant!!! Liberation Day followed by Independence Day. The White House will be calling shortly.

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    6. Jason Boxman

      The Guns of August by Tuchman is I think the seminal work on this.

      Oddly, despite being in the top 100 best non-fiction books by Amazon, I doubt anyone in Washington has ever read it.

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    7. rowlf

      In the Forrest Pogue interview tapes of General Of The Army George Marshall, Marshall discusses the plans to move European theatre personnel to the Pacific theatre to invade Japan. (My grandfather would have been sent due to his In date in the US Army).

      They had all of the plans set up to move everyone (Marshall was famous for planning troop movements in WW 1, of course on a smaller scale) and the Japanese surrender made everything fall apart and created chaos on moving people around between theatres. My grandfather had to spend 1946 in France as everything was wound down, but since he had several years of French language classes he did ok.

      Reply ↓
  4. Carolinian

    The single missile strike on Beersheba was not aimed at Microsoft but rather at this

    The Gav Yam park is a major Israeli military project to create a high-technology campus and home for its cyberwarfare units, alongside private firms with which the military works.

    Along with Microsoft, Gav Yam’s tenants include such US and European tech giants as Amazon, IBM, Apple, Motorola and Philips, as well as Israeli weapons firms including Rafael and Elbit Systems.

    https://electronicintifada.net/blogs/ali-abunimah/israeli-media-censors-iranian-strike-cyberwarfare-base

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    1. ChrisFromGA

      The tech whore C-suite scum got in bed with the MIC. Now they get to experience the STDs … comes with the job.

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            1. ChrisFromGA

              Speaking of transactions, presumably Micro$oft invested in this facility, though it wouldn’t be surprising to find out it was all a giveaway from the IDF.

              Will they have to write it off next quarter’s earnings? I’d imagine they’ll bury it; any loss of capex could be a brick in the Grand Canyon compared to all that Azure revenue.

              I’d still love to be an analyst on their next earnings call and poke the CEO about it.

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    3. griffen

      Yep it’s a great pic. Not exactly the same but made me think of the Badlands at sunset the one time I visited in 2023. On another point I’m trying to convince myself the short video of a woman feeding the blind tiger is not a real thing…watched it twice it seems very legit. In my youth I would have named a theoretical pet tiger as Hobbes, after the iconic cartoon strip.

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      1. The Rev Kev

        It looked legit but it did not look like much of a meal for a Tiger that size. I wonder how it became blind at such a young age.

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  6. The Rev Kev

    ‘Lord Bebo
    @MyLordBebo
    🇮🇷 IRAN TODAY: Just watch this short walk through Teheran!
    -> Count the women that wear a head scarf and those who do not.
    Now tell me, is this what you expected?
    Iranian women can wear a headscarf if they choose to, but if they don’t … then they don’t.
    It’s a modern Muslim nation.’

    Somebody was saying in a video today, perhaps Larry Johnstone, that you can even see couples kissing in public these days. This is not your grandpapy’s Iran from the 70s.

    Reply ↓
      1. Polar Socialist

        There’s a youtube channel named “visitera“, by an Iranian couple. They post walk-troughs in different parts of different Iranian cities, and me and Mrs. have been occasionally watching them for a year and a half. Especially for Mrs. they have been eye-opening.

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        1. The Rev Kev

          Duly bookmarked. Thanks for that. Got the same sort of surprise watching videos of normal Chinese street-life and how everything was clean and modern. Graffiti gets boring real fast so it is good to see how some countries do not have that problem.

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      1. mrsyk

        True that, but don’t overlook the normalcies. I’ve always wanted to visit Iran. As a boy I was intrigued by the name Persia, in my mind only one of the most exotic places on earth could be named such.

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        1. NakedEmperor

          I feel the same. It’s a real shame that we cannot visit Persia. On a side note: The Persian women I have met and worked with over the years have been lovely. How I love the accent!!

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      1. cfraenkel

        Y, I assumed it was referring to yesterday’s comment as well.

        Though the more relevant comment was the great grandparent (at 8:04 posting time), which is about national medical professional bodies causing their professions to lose the population’s confidence over their trans ‘my way or the highway’ policing.

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  8. Wukchumni

    Take me out of the ball game,
    Pick me out of the crowd;
    Apprehend me using ICE packs,
    I don’t think i’ll ever get back.
    Let them root, root, root for the homeland security team
    If they don’t win, it’s a shame.
    For it’s one strike you’re out,
    At the old ball game.

    Reply ↓
  9. Wukchumni

    My nuclear war prep centers around getting a ride to the space station, but to get the best fares you need to buy 21 days in advance of journey.

    Should I just pay full price and bite the Potassium Iodide bullet?

    Reply ↓
    1. ambrit

      Don’t do it unless you have a China stamp in your passport. The Taikonauts will soon be visiting the low orbit space stations to check your papers.
      “I am so sorry sir. These endorsements in your passport have expired.”
      “But, but, I had them updated by the People’s Republic attaché in Austin!”
      “Sorry sir, but the People’s Republic has no representatives in your State of Texas.”
      “What? Those crooks! What do I do now?”
      “I am sorry to tell you that you will have to return to your country of origin.”
      “Wait a minute. We’re in space and there’s no return capsule!”
      “Technically sir, once you cross the border, your travel arrangements are not our concern.”
      “Huh? Cross the border?”
      “This way sir.”
      “But that’s the air lock!”
      “We are quite sorry sir, but rules are rules. Have a nice flight.”

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      1. Wukchumni

        I had thought all of that out and luckily opted for Mutual of Andromeda umbrella coverage, i’m good.

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        1. ambrit

          The ultimate Golden Parachute.
          “Beam me up Scotty. There is no longer any sign of intelligent life on this planet.”

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    2. ilsm

      I had a couple of assignments at bases we knew that sub launched missiles would be fired at us.

      We used to say “the living would envy us….”

      SAC motto “peace is our profession “

      SAC humor!

      Reply ↓
  10. griffen

    Lots of chatter during the week on CNBC, almost hourly on the latest and greatest headlines on all things related to AI. Zuckerberg and Meta are going full on mode and breaking out the wallet, buying an AI start up founded by a quite young whippersnapper. This follows news from prior weeks, whereby the Sam Altman firm acquired an AI start up founded by Jonny Ive ( Apple enthusiasts appreciate his work at Apple id suppose ).

    So there is a bottomless pit of money to chase all the available prospects, throw gobs of billions at the new new AI “this that or the other”. Yeah, you know this could be a new era but then again….a few of us might have memories of eras past when company XYX was going to be the standard bearer of the next technology wave. Enron, WorldCom, AOL + Time Warner…among others swept into the dustbin of history.

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    3. noonespecial

      re the hill’s link on ChatGPT and cognitive decline /
      griffen’s comment: “So there is a bottomless pit of money to chase all the available prospects…”

      Hill article line: “They discovered that subjects who used ChatGPT over a few months had the lowest brain engagement and “consistently underperformed at neural, linguistic, and behavioral levels”.

      Adding this to the growing list of examples found at NC that a bottomless pit of money surely loves to bet that AI is a super-duper tool that Da Vinci would have been jealous of. This AI startup was founded by college drop outs. The link from TechCrunch highlights the company’s recent blessing bestowed the coin gods at Andreessen Horowitz.

      A quick scan of Cluely Ai’s web link I find these words that I assume are part of the sales pitch:” The Brain You Wish You Had on Every Sales Call Cluely AI tells you exactly what to say – while you are still talking.”

      Brain rot full speed ahead seems baked in as reliance upon AI seems to lead to deskilling vis-a-vis machine-does-my-thinking habits.

      quote from TechCrunch…

      https://techcrunch.com/2025/06/20/cluely-a-startup-that-helps-cheat-on-everything-raises-15m-from-a16z/

      “Cluely, a startup that claims to help users “cheat” on job interviews, exams, and sales calls, has raised a $15 million Series A led by Andreessen Horowitz, the company announced on Friday with a video posted on X.”

      Reply ↓
  11. The Rev Kev

    “War With Iran: Animal Abandonment in Israel Soars’

    That article went into how all those people simply had to abandon their pet as they were so stressed out by Iranian missiles. Poor dears. But how many pets are there because their owners are getting out of the country altogether or are planning to?

    Reply ↓
  12. Mikel

    Rahm Emanuel: 2025’s worst throwback He’s the Machiavelli of Democratic capitulation – Unherd

    The article forgot to mention:

    During the 1991 Gulf War Rahm in fact volunteered for the Israeli Army (volunteers were not sent to combat but rather to support jobs).

    Reply ↓
    1. The Rev Kev

      At least he doesn’t walk around Congress wearing an Israeli army uniform. Come to think of it, how many in Congress have served in the Israeli military – or any other country’s military for that matter?

      Reply ↓
        1. Stillfeelinthebern

          Rahm served in Congress representing Illinois 5th Congressional district for 6 yrs until he went into the Obama administration. During that time he also ran the DCCC.

          Reply ↓
          1. mrsyk

            Yup, but the thing I most fondly recall when I hear his name is the Chicago “black site” detention facility. Nice guy.

            Reply ↓
            1. Pat

              I am still outraged that Rahm and the police chief aren’t still serving their multiple prison sentences for kidnapping in the nastiest super max prison in the country.

              And now I have added that the same fate isn’t in store for Kristi Noem to that list.

              Reply ↓
              1. NakedEmperor

                Kristi Noem should first be water boarded. Aside from Trump himself, Noem is the most obnoxious person in the Trump administration.

                Reply ↓
    1. Carolinian

      See upthread. He talked about it the other day.

      I’ve read a book called Irreversible Damage by a former WSJ reporter who says that while there is a longstanding and well known phenomenon of men wanting to become women there’s practically no history, up until now, of women wanting to sex change into men including, even, the full equipment. The author says much of this is driven by social media and adolescent confusion not to mention the medical profits to be made from an ongoing lifelong dependence on hormones.

      It also says that many come to regret the irreversible changes and I believe that is what IM Doc is talking about.

      Reply ↓
      1. Trees&Trunks

        There was a good documentary on RT quite a few years ago about transgenders. One conclusion was that the real problem was seldom the sex because the suicide rates are really high after the procedures

        Reply ↓
      2. bobert

        “medical profits to be made from an ongoing lifelong dependence on hormones”

        You can say that again. Here is the investigative reporter Jennifer Bilek talking about the deep pockets and long reach of Trans Inc. Trans isn’t a movement, it isn’t a social contagion, it’s social engineering.

        How A Handful Of Billionaires Created The Transgender “Movement”

        The cultural shifts we see today regarding gender identity are largely influenced by huge capital inflows from governments, philanthropists, corporations, and investment management and accounting firms like Blackrock and Ernst & Young. While some believe that the ideology originated in universities, funding is directed to these institutions to promote the idea of synthetic sex identities as progressive, which students then carry into the world.

        To comprehend the motivations of governments, philanthropists, and big business in this ideology, we must examine its implications. Gender ideology deconstructs human reproductive sex legally, linguistically, socially, and is also attacking mostly young people’s reproductive organs by sterilizing them. It is marketing disassociation from sexed reality presented as progressive, which is especially confusing to young people in using their naturally rebellious youthfulness as a corporate trap.

        https://jbilek.substack.com/p/how-a-handful-of-billionaires-created

        Reply ↓
  14. pjay

    – THE PRESIDENTS OF RUSSIA AND CHINA ANNOUNCE THE CARDINAL POINTS OF THE OBVIOUS – John Helmer.

    Is it just me, or is Helmer sounding more and more like Paul Craig Roberts when it comes to Putin? I understand frustration with what may be considered Putin’s excessive “caution,” especially on Israel. But this sounds like something else.

    Reply ↓
    1. Samuel Conner

      It’s not just you. I don’t know what to make of JH’s critique. On one hand, he certainly knows vastly more about the history and current conditions than I do.

      On the other hand, VVP seems to have navigated RF from a very bad place in the late ’90s to a place today where it is able to defend its interests. I don’t think there are many people in RF, or perhaps in the wider world, who could have done a lot better.

      JH claims that VVP publicly repudiated secret defense agreements that JH is confident do exist because of certain language in the public text of the RF/Iran treaty (“Putin’s statement to AFP does not deny these elements of the treaty; he revokes them”). Perhaps he knows more than he can document (sources within RF government, perhaps?), but I would be happier with his analysis if he were to couch dramatic claims like this in qualified language, more along the lines of “if the undisclosed agreements obligate RF to provide military assistance to Iran, VVP’s public remarks — if sincere and not misdirection — would appear to be a repudiation of them”.

      Nima’s podcasts with Ray McGovern and JH are interesting to watch; RM seems to me to tend toward complacency, and JH toward alarmism.

      Reply ↓
      1. Jokerstein

        Excuse me, sir. Seeing as how the V.P. is such a V.I.P., shouldn’t we keep the P.C. on the Q.T.? ‘Cause of the leaks to the V.C. he could end up M.I.A., and then we’d all be put out in K.P.

        Adrian Cronauer, GMV!

        Reply ↓
  15. Wukchumni

    What is entirely missing from the war in the Holy Land is individual glory in the midst of gory…

    If you pinned a medal on an outgoing missile, would that suffice?

    Reply ↓
    1. John Wright

      In the USA a few politicians have autographed munitions intended for Ukraine/Gaza use, Gov Shapiro of PA and Nikki Haley are two of them.

      I don’t recall other nations publicizing their endorsements of destruction this way.

      As I recall, I had a “Ted Williams” autograph model baseball glove in my youth.

      Not that it really improved my fielding, but the endorsement honored baseball excellence rather than death and destruction.

      Reply ↓
        2. Nikkikat

          lol! Can’t help but laugh……Dick Cheney with blood dripping from his fangs. Is his heart still beating or are we in for him being ridden all around the country like old man Bush in a black limo. Then laid out in the capitol for everyone to troop past twisting the hankies and
          Shedding tears for THIS GREAT AMERICAN! Maybe he will leave that file cabinet from his office with the oil company meetings and LIZ will open it up and tell Schumer what’s inside.
          Boy oh boy! And we will have TWO a huge flags flying at half mast on the White House lawn. We put those in just in time.

          Reply ↓
  16. AG

    re: Iran

    ATW: Taibbi/Kirn

    Based on the limited preview I don´t have the impression they really rise to the occasion.
    Usually their tongue-in-cheek works more or less because it´s directed not at the historical record but at how other media picture it and report or distort. But here it´s direct and you can observe how far do they both read news and how they interpret and judge what reaches them. Without any intermediary queued in. Without the benefit of cover of a reviewer or critic.

    They seem to be better with home turf entertainment.

    Transcript – America This Week, June 20, 2025: “Israel, Iran, and Trump, by Popular Demand”
    Everybody wigs out about everything. The “rifts” out there. Plus, “Catch-22” by Joseph Heller

    June 21, 2025
    https://www.racket.news/p/transcript-america-this-week-june-e1d

    Reply ↓
    1. Howard

      I subscribe to Taibbi’s Racket News, but I have been growing increasingly disappointed with the level of Matt and Walter’s discourse, especially when it comes to current events. To be more specific, I was very put off by their level of knowledge and their cartoonish analysis of aspects of the current Iran-Israel conflict (for them, Iran appears to personify all things evil including torture of women who don’t wear hijabs, and they are taking a one-sided drubbing from Israel) and by their off-hand attitude about whether a war crime (pre-emptive attack on Iran) would be a good idea (basically, “on the one hand…on the other…”)

      Reply ↓
      1. hk

        I tend to consider Taibbi and Kirn a useful indicator of where “well-informed” and generally skeptical Americans are at (which would be a rairty in the first place). In that context, their understanding of the Middle Eastern affiars is more appalling than just their talking…but it is also, however, a good measure of where the “public” is. Sad, but we need to know who’s where.

        Reply ↓
      2. JohnnyGee

        I too am a subscriber to Racket News and share your disappointment. The recent post on Iran Israel etc is a revelation as to why Taibbi and Kirn have not commented on the situation—they don’t care much about it and obviously have done little investigation. Kirn admits as much. It seems to me Taibbi lately is more invested in endlessly trashing the dem party ( they of course need trashing) but at the exclusion of substantive criticism of the Trump Administration.

        Reply ↓
  17. Hip Hop Vijesti

    I’m absolutely delighted to have stumbled upon your website! This was precisely the kind of detailed and insightful content I’ve been searching for, and it’s now a firm favorite in my bookmarks.

    Reply ↓
    1. Ann

      Welcome! and don’t forget to read the site policies as linked at the top of this page. You’ll not find another site like this anywhere.

      Reply ↓
  18. The Rev Kev

    “How China got the US over a rare earth barrel”

    Considering the fact that the US military will not be able to get advanced weaponry because of the rare earth embargoes by China, it might be more of a case of ‘China has got the US in a rare earth barrel.’ Somewhere in the Pentagon there would be a chart listing all of the Chinese rare earths used in military production, which weapons they go into, and an estimated date when the last of each will be used up. I bet that they have shown Trump that chart. And what’s he going to do if they don’t start shipping that stuff again? Threaten them with sanctions? He’s not got the cards, you see. He has no cards.

    Reply ↓
    1. Samuel Conner

      Perhaps it’s a case of “MAED”, “mutual assured economic destruction”, on the theory that PRC would be severely inconvenienced if its primary petroleum delivery route were interrupted.

      —

      It is disheartening to contemplate the amount of material and human resources and government attention that are consumed by the imperative of competing rather than cooperating with other nations. The whole human race seems to be trapped in the Prisoner’s Dilemma.

      Reply ↓
      1. .human

        It is disheartening to contemplate the amount of material and human resources…

        Call it what it is, Sam; Blood and Treasure.

        Reply ↓
    2. Polar Socialist

      Considering the several failed audits of Pentagon, I doubt anybody there really knows what they have, how much they have and where it actually is – or if it exists at all (except in half a dozen conflicting excel sheets).

      Reply ↓
      1. cfraenkel

        I wouldn’t over-generalize the ‘failed audits’. The procurement system is *designed* to hide funds, enable moving funds from bucket A to bucket D to free up spending for pet projects that were ‘cut’. Yeah sure they were.

        Reply ↓
  19. Wukchumni

    Take me now Bibi here as I am
    Pull me close, try and understand
    Desire is hunger is the fire I breathe
    War is a banquet on which we feed

    Come on now try and understand
    The way I feel when I’m in your hands
    Take my hand come undercover
    They can’t hurt you now,
    Can’t hurt you now, can’t hurt you now
    Because the fortnight belongs to war lovers
    Because the fortnight belongs to land lust
    Because the fortnight belongs to war lovers
    Because the fortnight belongs to us

    Have I doubt when I’m alone
    War love is a ring on the telephone
    War love is an avenging angel disguised as lust
    Here in our midst until the ultimatum comes and goes
    Come on now try and understand
    The way I feel under your command
    Take my hand as World War 3 descends
    They can’t touch you now,
    Can’t touch you now, can’t touch you now
    Because the fortnight belongs to war lovers …

    With war love we sleep
    With doubt the vicious circle
    Turn and burns
    Without you I cannot live
    Forgive, the yearning burning
    I believe it’s time, too real to feel
    So touch me now, touch me now, touch me now
    Because the night belongs to war lovers …

    Because tonight there are two war lovers
    If we believe in Fordow in a fortnight we trust
    Because tonight there are two war lovers …

    Because the Night, by the Patti Smith Group

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_BcivBprM0

    Full Disclosure: I’ve never felt nuclear war was as imminent as now, in my life on this good orb so far.

    Reply ↓
      1. Wukchumni

        You have no idea how difficult it is to type when attired in a NBC suit 24/7/365/52/12/60, but I get it-not about being nimble.

        Reply ↓
    2. mrsyk

      Thank you, I had the great pleasure of attending Patti Smith’s 60th birthday show (at the Bowery Ballroom, iirc). Magic. With heart, she performed every song I was hoping for, and then spent an hour sitting on the edge of the stage reading poetry and excerpts from her recently released book. What a memory.

      Reply ↓
      1. Revenant

        My first boss in venture capital was Oxford English graduate and a former Patti Smith roadie, who looks just like Bryan Ferry. Lovely chap.

        Reply ↓
        1. NakedEmperor

          Nuclear war is bad for both the Neocon and Zionist projects, so I’m expecting that peace in some form will break out before all hell breaks loose. There may be no change, but there is still some hope.

          Reply ↓
  20. Roxana

    The best cure for a sore throat: gargle with Alka Selzter–you’ll get relief for about 4 hours. Learned that from a wise old nurse, at work, when we all came down with the worst sore throat, ever. So tired of Covid….

    Reply ↓
    2. The Rev Kev

      Try half a bottle of a good whiskey. You’ll still have the sore throat but after half a bottle, you will no longer care.

      Reply ↓
  21. LawnDart

    Re; antidote…

    We don’t deserve cats

    I beg to differ: a stroll through Links this morning alone is plenty enough to help add to the list of people who really do deserve cats… the thoughtful gifting of felines could help empty the shelters while giving millions of unwanted kittys a new home and purpose in life:

    HORROR DEATH Woman EATEN by 20 pet cats after collapsing dead – as cops don’t find decomposing body for two weeks

    Hmm…

    Yes, your pet might eat your corpse. That’s a problem for investigators

    Australian police probably expected a gruesome scene when they checked on a 69-year-old man suspected to have been dead for days. But when they opened the door to his home, they didn’t expect the approximately 30 cats that came flooding out. Inside, they found the man’s body on the floor, with his face gnawed down to the skull and his heart and lungs gone. As if to dispel any doubt about what happened, one cat was still sitting inside the man’s emptied chest cavity.

    A few fiesty felines could add more meat and mystery to a murder novel (or novel murder)… tis doubtful I am even scratching the surface of peak-cynicism here.

    Reply ↓
  22. mrsyk

    (Fastens seatbelt)
    Heat wave this week, on a national scale, records expected to be broken.
    Power grids to be tested.
    Heat waves are associated with higher levels of civil unrest.
    Trump “decision”.

    At least the Sixers didn’t make the NBA finals.
    Stay safe

    Reply ↓
      1. mrsyk

        Heh, Philly always burns if one of their pro teams makes the finals, win, lose or draw.
        Philadelphia, the town that booed Santa Claus.

        Reply ↓
    1. The Rev Kev

      Haven’t seen that movie since the 70s but have never forgotten the ending. It was wild. Actually that captain was a lot like the one that commanded the US Vincennes back in ’88. He abandoned his post, refused orders to return to it, sailed into Iranian waters so that he could get the glory of shooting down an Iranian F-14 – and ended up shooting down an Iranian airliner instead. Same sort of reckless gung-ho mentality.

      Reply ↓
        1. The Rev Kev

          I’m sure that it was as thorough an investigation as the 10 day one on the attack on the USS Liberty. :)

          Reply ↓
  24. Anonted

    I think Trump’s delay, is to make the Israel lobby piss itself, given Netanyahu’s opening insolence regarding US participation. Or perhaps Bibi underestimated the Evangelicals’ commitment to the project, and they’ve only been rushing to see the Wailing Wall because it’s set to disappear.

    Once the US pacifies Iran (many ways to skin a cat, much of which we, and likely Netanyahu, are not privy to), Israel as a nation will have outlived its arrogant usefulness, or rather, given its genocidal conduct and grasping political ambition, may be more salient in martyrdom. Israel being just another proxy for Zionism, and Zionism being a front for global dominance (already, with international penetration), what better way to vanish into powerful obscurity than through visible defeat?

    Very interesting times.

    Reply ↓
    2. The Rev Kev

      If the entire US military could not pacify tiny Yemen, then pray tell how they would do so for Iran? The place is nearly three times the size of Texas and is packed full of mountains – just like Afghanistan. And how to pacify over 92 million people? It can’t be done.

      Reply ↓
      2. scott s.

        I don’t think “the entire US military could not pacify tiny Yemen” but of course you can then get into the whole “fighting with one hand tied behind their back” idea going back to Korea that ignores Clausewitz’s arguments about why real war doesn’t always escalate.

        Reply ↓
      1. Samuel Conner

        I hope he’s right, but a possible flaw in the argument is that it assumes calculated intelligent pursuit of national self-interest on the part of US rulers.

        He’s right that there has not been much “manufacture of consent” among US public, but perhaps he overestimates the perception of US rulers that “consent of the governed” actually matters. US policy often does not align with the preferences of the governed.

        I hope he is right.

        Reply ↓
  25. ambrit

    Re: “Trump Adviser: “Canada has been taken over by Mexican cartels…”
    This person has obviously not spent any time in many of the poorer sections of America’s cities. Drugs gangs are everywhere. We here in the Half Horse Town have franchises of the: Crips, Bloods, Dixie Mafia, Gangster Disciples, Latin Kings, and what looks to be a cartel from Jalisco in Mexico. That’s going by the police reports and what “tags” I can decipher with my meagre knowledge of the Underground Economy.
    Ten cuidado!

    Reply ↓
    1. Wukchumni

      Here in ciudad Cali, its Norteños & Sureños, with the dividing line being Delano, which hosts a few prisons.

      The last murder here in Tiny Town was in 1913, and a century later after a gun battle on the banks of the Kaweah River, 2 gang members were dead and 3 others injured.

      It wasn’t as if local residents knew any of the victims~

      Reply ↓
    2. jrkrideau

      Sounds about what one would expect froma Trump advisor, wild ravings from a blithering idiot. Has that fool ever been in Canada?

      Reply ↓
      1. cyclist

        Navarro may have never been to Canada but he is an expert in how spectometry is used to discover fentanol.

        Reply ↓
  27. pjay

    It sounds like Tulsi has been reading ‘Profiles in Courage: George Tenet/Colin Powell edition.’ Still more deja moo all over again.

    Reply ↓
  29. Yves Smith Post author

    Cheery news: Steve Bannon is warning that he got word to”party on” this weekend which I take to mean the Iran attack.

    Situation room meeting Sat but some argue it would be too close to dawn in Iran, not optimal time for air strikes:

    And:

    Reply ↓
    3. ChrisFromGA

      As always, thanks for the latest.

      I suspect tonight is the night, as Orange Julius wouldn’t want to do it Sunday night when the futures open. Do a quick bombing run, declare massive success, and massage the truth until it has deep tissue bruises.

      Must. Prop up. Markets.

      Still, wars have a way of not going the way the blockheads in the Pentagon think they will. 24 hours is a lot of time for things to go pear-shaped.

      Reply ↓
    4. nyleta

      According to Treasury Direct they have just under $400 billion of bills and notes on offer next week. If they move before then it will make for some interesting auctions.

      Reply ↓
    5. JBird4049

      Why am I reminded of the Kremlinolgists and Kremlin watchers during the Cold War trying to read those tealeaves?

      Reply ↓
    6. K

      Trump and all his “boys” should be sitting at a circular table to signify what a “circle jerk” that whole crowd is

      Reply ↓
    7. Samuel Conner

      I have seen assertions that an act of UK Parliament would be required to authorize use of Diego Garcia facilities for offensive purposes by US.

      Assuming that is true, I don’t know whether this is an actual constraint; perhaps US would simply “ask forgiveness afterward rather than permission beforehand.”

      If Parliament does act to authorize this, that would seem a very strong “tell.”

      Reply ↓
    9. chris

      Yeah… Guardian is reporting the bombers payloads struck Fordow. “Completely obliterating it.” I’m so glad everyone in Congress stood up to say the President wasn’t allowed to declare war without their consent and then acted quickly to force a vote that would constrain military action. Oh, wait, that NEVER happens.

      Reply ↓
      1. Yves Smith Post author

        See the post just up. Two of the three sites were already abandoned. Iran said they moved all their enriched uranium out of Fordow, and I would assume any centrifuges too.

        So this would otherwise be a face saving stunt (despite this absolutely being an act of war) except Iran is very successfully punishing Israel. Unless Israel stops shooting at Iran (Iran said it would stop attacking Israel if so), we are going to keep going up the escalation ladder.

        Reply ↓
  30. Jason Boxman

    Analysis of over 220K pregnancies in Israel during 2016- 2022 found that mRNA COVID-19 vaccination during gestational weeks 8-13 was associated with a higher-than-expected number of eventual fetal losses (miscarriages, abortions & stillbirths)!

    I know a single data point is even more unreliable, but someone at work had a friend that got the initial modified RNA shots during pregnancy, and later had a kidney attach to the uterus and had emergency surgery to remove her uterus during childbirth. She survived.

    Pregnancy is dangerous, so you never know. Woman was relatively young and healthy, though, no such serious complications with first pregnancy.

    Related? We’ll never know, but I doubt much it was ever reported to FDA. Didn’t ask.

    Reply ↓
  31. XXYY

    Fear and shock as Israelis question motives behind attack on Iran Middle East Eye

    Some interesting stuff in this piece, particularly how easy it’s been to shake the Israeli population after a mere 7 days of sporadic missile strikes.

    [A resident] told MEE. “A few days ago, a missile hit near my parents’ house. The whole area was covered in shattered glass, their window was blown out. It’s scary.”

    “Life here is a nightmare,” he continued. “I guess I’ll move abroad. This isn’t a place to raise children.”

    When asked whether he feared the continuation of the war, Elisha replied: “I’m afraid of my government. I’m mostly afraid of what they’ll do next.”

    If this is representative, it looks like the dedication of the Jewish population to Israel is pretty thin (which is understandable to me!). It also looks like Netanyahu is in great danger of destroying the Israeli brand for present and future Jewish residents.

    Reply ↓
      1. hk

        If that genocide brought them security, they might have some value still, but their warmongering has destroyed what security they still had.

        What was it that Machiavelli said? It is better to be feared than loved, but ypu shpuld always avoid being hated…

        Reply ↓
  32. Tom Stone

    The Trump administration has no reverse gear and and an insane clown is driving the bus.
    War with Iran is now a certainty and if we, as a species, survive that, America will continue its descent into a dystopian shithole.
    Martial Law seems inevitable at this point, US Marines are already arresting people in LA, including US citizens.
    As Trump’s big beautiful plans continue to fail spectacularly it will be interesting to see who he blames…

    Reply ↓
    1. Samuel Conner

      > continue to fail spectacularly

      I have been thinking the same — if there is any self-awareness and situational awareness in our Chief Executive, he may notice a pattern: DOGE, tariffs, RF/Ukraine diplomacy, “Big Beautiful Bill”, … nothing is working as planned.

      I’d like to believe that there is enough sense of self-interest in the man that he is contemplating the possibility that intervention in the Iran/Israel war will also not work as planned.

      He won the Presidency in 2016 in part on his (correct) criticism of the US intervention in Iraq. At some level, I think he has to realize that Iran is an even worse gamble.

      Maybe sanity will yet prevail.

      Reply ↓
  34. Jason Boxman

    From Applebee’s and IHOP Plan to Introduce AI in Restaurants

    One promise of AI is that it can make fast-food and casual-dining restaurants more automated, lessening the need for human labor and speeding up the work of existing staff. The ability to offset labor costs—whether by reducing or more accurately forecasting it—is a major cost savings for restaurants, Jashinsky said.

    Indeed, before the AI scam, Panera Bread’s PE owner installed order kiosks back in like 2017 or 2018, and nuked staff. The service and quality declined vastly, and I stopped bothering to ever go back then. Tragic, as it was a great fast casual place in the early 2000s.

    With the Pandemic, I don’t go out anywhere to eat anymore, and out here there are few places worth ordering out from anyway.

    Reply ↓
  35. mrsyk

    We’ve got one good place to go with spacious outdoor seating. I consider myself lucky.

    As a perhaps amusing anecdote, back in the mid-naughties, I once met a gentleman who was arranging financing for his concept upscale lounge where the food and drink were all to be accessed via vending machines. Like stopping at a highway rest area with variety. He did manage to open the place. I know not if it was successful.
    Edit, response to @jason boxman

    Reply ↓
    2. Jason Boxman

      The automated order system in Earth*Star Voyager at the beginning was a vending machine. You order from a computer window, then the table you sit at had slots that exposed your food, as I recall. Disney deep-sixed that film, you can’t even get it. I found it on the Internet Archive. It was the Sunday Night Movie or whatever on the Disney Channel back in the mid? 1980s. This one was complete with a eugenics/techbros theme, lost on me as a small child, but glaringly obvious today.

      Reply ↓
  36. OIFVet

    Re: deja moo

    I kept thinking that something was missing, so I modified it into a reel with Toby Keith singing “Courtesy of the red, white and blue” and now it’s perfect.

    Reply ↓
  37. Victor Sciamarelli

    Everybody is naturally wondering when will Trump make a decision and will it be for or against an attack on Iran. Nobody seems to wonder if Trump has boxed himself in to the point he lost the freedom to make a decision.
    Trump put an serious effort into negotiations which he claims is his forte. Yet, Netanyahu assassinated many of the negotiators, as well as high ranking Iranian officials. Most people would be humiliated, but not Trump, he merely doubled down on negotiations with unrealistic demands that he must have known would go nowhere only to save some of his face.
    The table has turned and Bibi needs Trump more than Trump needs Bibi. Then why not make Bibi squirm? But does Trump really have what it takes to turn his back on Netanyahu, The Israel lobby, and his billionaire donors who support Israel.
    It’s fairly obvious Israel is having trouble fighting Iran. Trump really doesn’t have a choice. Whatever he thinks of Bibi, he will be at war with the Israel lobby if Israel gets crushed, and he will be at war with his MAGA base if he goes to war with Iran. Trump has lost control over events and he does not have the strength of character to get out of a mess of his own making.

    Reply ↓
    1. NakedEmperor

      At this point, does Trump need his billionaire donors? He could tell them all to pound sand since he is on his second and last term as POTUS. AIPAC can threaten to primary recalcitrant members of Congress, but they have little power over Trump. Are they going to scuttle Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill in order to spite him? Trump needs to grow some cojones and step off the war path. The Zionists will be furious, but why should he care. Just in case, his Secret Service detail should be doubled.

      Reply ↓
    2. Jason Boxman

      The negotiations are a failure on their own terms, in any case, because while Trump wants no nuclear material whatsoever, Israel has made it clear they want no ballistic capability, either. Whatever might be agreed to with Trump, the beatings will continue. What is even the point?

      The odds on avoiding a new war aren’t great.

      Reply ↓
  38. Mikel

    The Collapse of Restraint: Iran, Israel, and the Fragility of Global Order – Modern Diplomacy

    “Make a deal before there’s nothing left.”

    A lot of those social media posts sound like ransom notes.

    Reply ↓
    1. mrsyk

      No real surprises. Do we believe the Vance part? I’d like to.
      Meanwhile, six o’clock is at hand, and it’s cocktails before (perhaps instead of) dinner.

      Reply ↓
    2. Carolinian

      A highly useful article.

      Those in Congress who aren’t complete tools need to step up. Nobody elected Kurilla, Radcliffe, Wiles or for that matter Netanyahu. Trump’s stance that he can declare war on Iran all on his own is absurd.

      Reply ↓
  42. MaryLand

    Trump says that the US carried out a successful attack on 3 nuclear sites in Iran.

    He announced it 10 minutes ago.

    Reply ↓
    2. MaryLand

      From @realDonaldTrump:

      “We have completed our very successful attack on the three Nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. All planes are now outside of Iran air space. A full payload of BOMBS was dropped on the primary site, Fordow. All planes are safely on their way home. Congratulations to our great American Warriors. There is not another military in the World that could have done this. NOW IS THE TIME FOR PEACE!Thank
      you for your attention to this matter.”

      Saw this on Twitter as a screenshot, but it might be from his own social media.

      Reply ↓
      1. mrsyk

        Thank you. It seems the very least that we have bombed Iran. I hope that’s it and we are on our way home.

        Reply ↓
        1. The Rev Kev

          Hopefully Trump says that we have done our part and now is the time for real negotiations. Maybe. Or Iran could attack three smaller US bases in the region and say that it is over. Guess that we’ll have to wait

          Reply ↓
          1. ChrisFromGA

            How do we know the effectiveness? They’re going to lie at any rate, and read to us whatever script that Netanyahu wrote.

            Reply ↓
            1. mrsyk

              I believe a full payload = two “bunker busters”. That’s a hint that maybe not that much damage at Fordow. Spitballing here, of course.

              Reply ↓
              1. ChrisFromGA

                We’re likely going to be so deep in lies that the Mariana Trench will look like a puddle. The timescale to get any actual knowledge that would be independently verifiable may be years.

                Reply ↓
                2. The Rev Kev

                  Come to think of it, Iran may not have to retaliate against US bases but could launch a major retaliation on Israel instead. And why not? They are, after all, the ones that started this war and are using their muppets in the US like Lindsay Graham and Ratcliffe to get America into this fight when most Americans want no part of it.

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                1. mrsyk

                  There is that. I’m wondering how much information China was able to glean. Don’t they have a couple of tech/com ships in the region?

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          2. hk

            In a way, Trump is rigjt.

            The official excuse for Israeli attack? Nukes.

            The real reason? Regime change.

            US target? Nuclear sites?

            Likely damage? Probably (hopefully) minimal But we’ll never know. Trump will say it was uuge, because, of course he would.

            US contribution to Iranian regine change? Zero.

            So we kinda put kibosh to Israel’s official reason for starting the war while thwarting their real reason (and the same for US neocons). We can now talk as we won and perhaps return to negotiations. Yes, too much hopium, I know…

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      2. Pat

        Geez, Mr President, I can name three militaries that could accomplish this that are not on our side alone. I get that your entire empire is built on overselling and outright lying about your product, but this isn’t selling overpriced shoddy real estate or bad steaks.

        Reply ↓
    5. MaryLand

      Seen on Twitter: CIA Director Ratcliffe to brief all senators Tuesday according to a CSpan reporter.

      Reply ↓
    6. Jason Boxman

      He couldn’t defeat the bond market and perhaps was humiliated by the TACO label, so he got his manhood off this way.

      Perhaps talk about unintended consequences?

      While Trump continues to hold out hope that diplomacy will now be able to proceed, American forces in the region are prepared for Iranian retaliation.

      From CNN.

      Why would Iran negotiate after Trump said two weeks for talks to start, then a day or two later drops bombs? Who would negotiate with the United States? These people are high as f**k.

      And this is from before the strike. A lie.

      President Donald Trump is still weighing a decision on whether to involve the US military in offensive strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities as he meets with his national security team at the White House on Saturday, two White House officials told CNN.

      The officials said the president’s preferred option is to find a diplomatic solution to the Israel-Iran conflict, but only if the Iranians are far more forthcoming toward negotiations and willing to make significant concessions.

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  43. edwin

    Daily Iran Military on X

    “Fordow has been completely emptied and evacuated for several months now.”

    Reply ↓
      1. tegnost

        “Look, I only screwed your wife once, and it was really just a symbolic act to prove that I’m the king, and you’re the vassal. If you know what’s good for you you won’t blow it out of proportion.”

        Reply ↓
  44. MicaT

    According to ambassador Chas freeman it’s illegal to bomb any type of nuclear sites. Not that you’d hear that on the news or that anyone in the us cares.

    This is. trumps war now.

    Does China and Russia now provide top end weapons to Iran?

    Reply ↓
    1. mrsyk

      Let’s wait and see. I’m curious if Iran will shrug it off and continue to launch air attacks at Israel. What then?

      Reply ↓
        1. LawnDart

          If Iran directly attacks the US, they risk creating a “rally around the flag” effect. But if they indirectly strike at the US economy, be it energy or whatever, US voters will blame Trump for making their lives harder.

          Or course, the latter may ensure more of the same for Iran, but it would continue the slow-bleed of empire. The former very well could strike an artery and launch the empire into violent death-throes, but at what cost to Iran?

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          1. NakedEmperor

            I doubt that Iran cares a whit about any “rally around the flag” effect. The American people have no say in what its government does abroad, and few even care. In my view, Iran needs to strike back at the Empire. How they do it matters less to me than that they do something painful.

            Reply ↓
          2. mrsyk

            The BBC weighs in. US strike on Iran is loaded with risks for Trump.
            And while Trump seemed to be implying that the US attack was a singular, successful event, it will take time to determine whether the Americans actually achieved their goal of destroying the heavily fortified Iranian nuclear research facilities.

            If not, then the pressure to strike again will grow – or the president will have taken a serious political risk for minimal military gain.

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          3. tegnost

            win for the so called deep state, they get the war, and it’s blamed on trump by washington dc lobbyist consultant grifters, who never lose.

            Reply ↓
      2. hk

        Hopefully, the whole thing was just an act. By “fulfilling” Israel’s excuse to start the war, Trump just eliminated the reason to keep fighting. He frustrated their real goals by not attacking Iranian political leadership. Stories about Fordow has been changing so much that the place began to feel like a fabled, surreal, and cartoony place (and I’m inclined to believe that it’s probably not that valuable and, per the Tweet above, it’s been emptied for a while). In other words, I think we just bombed some highly symbolic targets that were likely just empty and insignificant in reality. But we did uuge damage(!!!) to the (nonexistent) Iranian nuclear weapons program! So Israel has no more reason (officially) to continue this war. So they must stop and the neocons should shut up because they got their (publicly stated) wish (but their real goals have been thwarted, along with the enormous sacrifice that would force on United States).

        I’ll confess to being fairly high on hopium and I’m not going to be surprised if the reality turns out to be quite differnt.

        Reply ↓
        2. The Rev Kev

          Israel may want to keep up the attacks on Iran forever but their stocks of anti-missile missiles are being depleted while their country endures ongoing attacks. And when they are all gone, it’s game over man, game over. Sooner or later peace will break out and when border controls there will be dropped we will see how many Israelis leave the place. It’s all fun and games bombing one country after another but not when you bomb a country that can bomb you right back. Israeli refugees. Coming to a neighbourhood near you.

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        3. Samuel Conner

          It sounds to me like both Netanyahu and Trump, in their brief addresses, have claimed that this strike has solved the problem.

          Perhaps they will try to climb down now to stop the Iranian bombardment.

          I can’t imagine that this is the intervention that Netanyahu wanted. DJT’s brief statement threatens Iran if it does not make peace. Does he mean “unconditional surrender”?

          I get the impression that US/ISR are hoping that Iran will agree to stop fighting, which suggests that they don’t consider themselves to be in a strong position.

          —–

          Alexander Mercouris reported Israeli assessment that Iran’s nuclear program had, by Israeli bombardment, been set back to the point that it was multiple years from returning to the “imminent weapon” stage. AM pointed out that this sounds like the US intelligence assessment that Iran is about 3 yrs from a weapon, if it decides to develop one. IOW, Israel has harmonized its threat assessment with US IC assessment. He thinks this is a signal that Israel wants to stop the fighting.

          “MIssion accomplished!”

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  45. The Rev Kev

    Just listened to Trump’s address to the nation and it was very, very short and there were no questions taken. It was full of boasting, bluster and threats which I guess is par for his course. I’m thinking that he will still go for his no-enrichment and no-ballistic-missiles plan which the EU muppets in Geneva repeated. In short, an Iranian surrender. We’ll have to wait to see how the Iranians respond but I do not think that we will have long to wait. Best outcome is for them to attack three US bases but giving them a heads-up so that they have time to take cover first like they did a coupla years ago. But the key question for the Iranians is how to negotiate with someone like Trump that is as treacherous as Erdogan? How to ensure that negotiating an end to this war is not used by Israel & the US as another Minsk 2 so that both countries can re-arm for another go say next year.

    Reply ↓
    1. NakedEmperor

      Why should Iran give any heads up? That is ridiculous. The US has declared war on Iran. The gloves are off. No more pussy footing around for Iran.

      Reply ↓
    2. tegnost

      Maybe the most effective route for iran to go is to ignore american assets and focus on israel, decisively if they can.
      Syria fell like a limp noodle so maybe iran will do the same, we’ll see

      Reply ↓
    3. bertl

      I don’t see the sense of Iran stopping even if Israel does. I think there is a point when religious values must give way to more worldly imperatives. Israel is a stone age genocidal hate cult bent on destroying the civilisations of West Asia, and Iran has a stockpile of thermobaric warheads which gives them the chance to clear the ground in Palestine whilst preserving the structures which can provide hospitals, homes and agricultural land to enable the Palestinians enjoy a more peaceful life in their own land whilst, at the same time, making it possible for all the peoples of the region to trade and develop their economies so that we can move forward peacefully to a net zero world.

      Reply ↓
  46. tegnost

    Seems to me nicely timed to give the msm narrative control leading into the sunday talk, so you know there’s going to be some well distributed moo marbles.

    I did hear a blurb us said don’t respond and this’ll be all…
    That should be snark, but it isn’t.

    Reply ↓
  48. Raymond Carter

    This time Trump in his speech specifically demanded “peace” from Iran as opposed to “surrender.”

    I personally think that the key reality is that Israel is getting a bit desperate and this was intended by the US as a face saving way to end the war of attrition which Israel is losing.

    If Iran accepts this deal from Trump and stands down, which may look like a pretty good deal on the surface, Israel will use the period of truce to rearm and reconstruct. Then US and Israel will start screwing with Iran again.

    So after further thought maybe Iran leadership decides to keep going after Israel and US and push the situation to its culmination, which is the effective defeat of Israel and half the population of Israel leaving the country.

    Reply ↓
    1. Carolinian

      The American attack came from Guam and underwater submarines so there’s nothing for them to retaliate against directly albeit plenty of US bases in the area. Perhaps Iran should say nothing and keep on dropping missiles until Israel is defenseless. It’s really Israel that is conducting this war and, as we now see, their American puppet. The Iranians have so far issued this statement.

      https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/514759/AEOI-issues-statement-after-attack-on-Iran-nuclear-sites

      Reply ↓
      1. Raymond Carter

        Yes, it would be interesting if Israel didn’t attack US bases at all and just kept attacking Israel.

        That would frustrate Israel and US because it would deprive US of any formal basis for retaliation or further involvement.

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    2. hk

      That caught my attention, too.

      I’ll stick my neck out for now and say that Trump pulled an act that may wind up saving face for everyone involved, if they don’t get too greedy. Namely:

      1. It looks like the attack, at least for now, probably didn’t do much damage. While we don’t know the exact scope of the attack, it seems to have involved, what, a few bombers and a couple dozen cruise missiles? That doesn’t seem like a very heavy strike package, especially in consideration of all the assets that supposedly had been moving eastward. Quite possibly, although nothing official came out, the sites were evacuated well in advance, too. So full of sound and fury, but no substance.

      2. The attack came from Guam and from submarines. That’s pretty far and does not embarrass any Gulf Arab states. (and the distance makes me wonder about the payload–I realize that it has been common for a while for bombers to take off with very little fuel and get refueled in air soon after takeoff, though)

      3. By claiming that (non-existent) Iranian nuclear weapons sites were totally obliterated, Trump is basically telling the Israelis that, since your “oificial” rationale for starting the war have been fulfilled, there’s nothing for you to do. Go home.

      4. But in addition to not doing meaningful damage, Trump stayed away from the real aim of Israeli aggression–regime change in Iran. Only allleged nuclear sites, no political or military ones.

      5. This could be just me, but it seemed like Fordow was getting unnaturally hyped. Although totally without any reason, I’m skeptical that Fordow really amounted to anything more than a hill of beans, as far as its real importance goes. But the inflated reputation is important IF you’re just going for a symbolic act.

      Overall, the war has gone badly for Israel and they desperately needed an off ramp. Trump gives them an escape hatch when they needed one (but before it became too obvious that they’d been beaten). Yet, by having been beaten up a fair bit by Iranian missiles, Trump basically sent Israel to their room without supper. Trump also gets neocons off his back for now by having enough evidence to have “done something.” By making a big stink in the Middle East, he gets cover for pulling out of Ukraine (and the need for Israel means pulling military assets from the ungrateful and annoying green man). With Israel having done a fair amount of damage to Iran, however, they too might be chastened–although this is the tough part, as you observe: does Iran take this “offer” (which is not terrible, but not such a good deal for Iran–it forces them to resume negotiations in an apparent position of weakness…or they’ll have to openly refute Trump’s wild claims–which means picking more fight with the US, which I don’t think they want. But they do run the risk that everything will be back to status quo in US-Israel relationship, which would mean that nothing will have really chan ged.)

      PS. Yes, I agree that Iran can keep up the pressure by not picking fight with the US, but continuing to attack Israel.

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      1. OIFVet

        Regardless whether the attack was a performative attempt to climb down, it is dangerous. The media (traditional and social) are filled with triumphalist idjiots spewing nonsense about how this proves the omnipotence of the US military, reinforcing the lack of learning that nothing gets decided by air strikes and facilitating the forgetting about recent quagmires such as Iraq and Afghanistan. All of this premature triumphalism is flood fed into the brains of an audience that is largely unsophisticated consumers of information. Yes, including credentialed idjiots with pretensions to be sophisticated and analytical consumers of info. It normalizes the state of permanent war and builds on the manufacture of consent for all sorts of misadventures, present and future. It pushes incompetent and deluded people into power, who are ever more likely to cross dangerous lines. In short, nothing good could possibly come from this given the larger picture of the sort of societies and cognition-shaping technologies we live with. The future just got that much scarier and more dangerous.

        Reply ↓
        1. Yves Smith Post author

          Iran just hit Israel again as a result of this attack.

          The only way this ends (as in not a durable peace but an acceptable equilibrium) is if Israel stops attacking Iran. Iran has said it will keep hitting Israel until it cuts it out.

          If Israel persists, the US will be forced to escalate as Iranian attacks do more and more damage to the infrastructure of Israel.

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          1. OIFVet

            Given Netanyahu’s personal existential needs, it seems rather clear that Israel will persist at least until such time that the damage and stress becomes impossible to bear for Israel’s population and the Israelis manage to boot him out of power.

            The time between now and then is filled with potential for dangerous and deranged stupidity on the part of the US.

            Reply ↓
            1. hk

              Fwiw, I am willing to bet there are messages from US to Israel: we’ve done what you said your aims are. Stop. The key question is if Israel listens. They can wreck this scheme, if indeed it us that, by not giving up. However, that likely means that Israel’s future is likely totally doomed in not too distant future. If you are not taking a clear off ramp offered at a very big risk by your patron, then you are an obvious psychopathic mass murderer and nobody should have sympathy for you…one should think. But will that public revelation be enough for crazy “friends” of israel?

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              1. OIFVet

                Dude, read again what I wrote. It’s not about this particular case but about what the narratives around a long series of US actions lead to.

                As far as this particular case, all indications are that the US knew well in advance what Israel would do and did nothing to stop it. Whether that’s a result of US being what it is, of AIPAC capture of the government or both is besides the point – no “offramp” can compensate the damage from the unwillingness to prevent this in the first place.

                Reply ↓
                1. hk

                  I think that’s basically sunk cost and we can’t do anything about it, other than quit entanglements where and whenever we can. Israel is one of our biggest and most headachy entanglements, though, and we can only extricate ourselves slowly, with a lot of steps in the wrong direction along the way. If this is a performative act intended to force Netanyahu to not drag us into his schemes too much or give him ropes to hang himself with, that’s a small step in the right direction. I don’t think the big damage is repairable in centuries, if ever, so I don’t think about it.

                  Reply ↓
                  1. OIFVet

                    Your entire argument is premised upon things which are not in evidence:
                    1. that the US wants to change its MO.
                    2. That there’s intellectual capacity to play 14-dimensional long-term chess
                    Sorry, I can’t share such rose-colored wishful thinking.

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      2. NakedEmperor

        If you think that Israel is the one driving the war against Iran think again. Israel is a US proxy, just as Ukraine is a US proxy. Netanyahu may be using the fake Iranian nuclear weapons program as a way to save his own skin, but the US is using Netanyahu both as a political shield for the domestic front and as a proxy for the real reason the US wants to take down Iran. Think oil and China. Iran controls vast amounts of oil. China’s new trade routes go through Iran. The US wants the oil and wants to deprive China of the trade routes. Usual imperial quests. Nothing surprising.

        Reply ↓
        1. Yves Smith Post author

          Most YouTube experts on Israel-US relations, above all John Measheimer, who co-authored the definitive book on the Israel lobby, disagree.s Lindsay Graham said he had 80 Senate votes for a new round of sanctions on Russia. He appears to have been quietly told that they’d backfire. Nevertheless, if there are 80 Senate votes for escalation with Russia, there have to be at least that many for Israel. That’s not just enough to beat a veto. It’s enough to impeach Trump.

          Reply ↓
  49. raspberry jam

    So was this a negotiated, arranged performance? The fact that the bombers got in and out without any damage, and that the fissile material had already been moved, points to that being the case. If Iran now attacks some US bases in the region after evacuation warnings while dialing back the strikes on Israel (they are decreasing in frequency but using bigger ordinance according to what my colleagues in Israel have shared the last few days) then there might be some months of relative quiet now while both sides prepare for the next round.

    Assuming Iran does not massively escalate in the next 48 hours, this is what I am watching for now:

    – Netanyahu’s actions. Netanyahu’s hold on power is extremely fragile right now and if things settle down ‘too much’ in Israel his government will likely fall and he may end up in jail. What will he do in response to this and in the coming weeks?
    – Increasing pressure/contradictions/crises in Israel as a result of the excessive strain of policing all the states in the region for further attacks/maintaining their strategic depth. How long can the post 10/7 frenzy really hold? Especially now that the nuclear threat has been dealt with “for now”? Closely related to…
    – False flags. Nobody knows what happened to the fissile material and Iran is already saying they’re not going to stop their nuclear program. How long before Israel sees dirty bomb facilities or nuclear warhead capabilities in every grainy satellite flyover shot?
    – Statements from other states in the region that indicate what a lasting peace settlement would require. I know this site strongly believes that the two state solution is dead, but one of the strongest beliefs many of my Israeli colleagues hold is that Netanyahu is the only person who can create the Palestinian state (without being immediately murdered by Israeli hardliners). A Palestinian state at this point would be weak, utterly damaged, and making Gaza habitable again is questionable. But if they get their own state Israel may believe they can just wash their hands of the problem and negotiate/settle out the funding of the reconstruction to others. Vile and reprehensible, yes, but there will eventually be a day after of some sort. If the conversation is actually allowed to be broached then I will believe we are close to a real resolution instead of just between rounds.
    – Regime change in Israel. The big wild card is when Israel snaps out of the post 10/7 frenzy and Netanyahu loses his grip on power. It’s going to happen, but when? Were enough mid- and high-ranking people in actual positions of power scared by the recent round of strikes in Israel to recognize that now is the time to bring him down?
    – Whether my colleagues in Israel begin moving their children out of the country for safety. If this happens then things are about to get eschatological. The people I interact with are unlikely to leave themselves – they would have already, they have the passports and means – but there were some quiet murmuring in 1:1 conversations last week about maybe moving their children out of Tel Aviv.
    – Whether Israeli dual nationals are allowed to leave the country in the coming weeks. They’ve been blocked from leaving by air since 6/13, they can still leave through land borders and the ferry to Cyprus.

    Reply ↓
    1. Yves Smith Post author

      No, the key issue is whether Israel stops attacking Iran. That is all that matters immediately. If Israel stands down, Iran will stop attacking Israel. If Israel keeps attacking Iran, Iran will keep inflicting punishment, which is already reaching intolerable levels (the post has detail on the port of Haifa) even before Israel’s air defense missiles are depleted.

      The two state solution is impossible. It would require mass expulsion of settlers from the West Bank. Never never never gonna happen, They are armed and have support of the police.

      Reply ↓
      1. raspberry jam

        Iran has already fired three waves of missiles at Israel since the US strikes (including yes at Haifa). This was expected, Israel HFC resumed the state of emergency overnight and schools/businesses were closed in anticipation of strikes. My ‘assuming Iran does not massively escalate in the next 48 hours’ referred to this. And as you say if Israel does not strike back following that, and stops the hits on Iran leadership, then Iran will stop lobbing missiles. My comments above are for the days and weeks following. Note that currently Israeli media is still talking about how there are still a lot of missile launchers left in Iran. Like with Lebanon, Netanyahu can choose to keep dragging this out for weeks and months if ‘necessary’ (for his survival not the country’s).

        I’m not an expert on the settlers but one colleague stated that their presence was guaranteed by Ben Gvir and his faction and should Netanyahu fall, Ben Gvir would go with him. This is why I think it matters when and how Netanyahu loses his grip on power. At any rate, it is something that can only happen after there is a state change in Israel’s government which can only happen when things ‘settle down’ a bit vis-a-vis the conflict with Iran.

        Reply ↓
        1. hk

          Settlers were a problem long before there was a Ben Gveir. Even back in the days when people were euphoric about Oslo and possible two state solution, when Israel was led by, at least relatively speaking, far more well meaning leaders, settlers were thought to be a nearly insoluble problem. There are far more of them and Israeli leaders, even the most dovish ones, are not very well-meaning.

          Reply ↓
      2. NakedEmperor

        I don’t think that the US is done attacking Iran. Even if Israel stops the US won’t stop. This war will continue, hot and cold, for many months and well into 2026. Trump likens himself to a Mafia Don, in particular John Gotti. Listen to wiretapped conversation from when Gotti was finally taken down. Trump talks just like Gotti. The Teflon Don eventually died in prison. That won’t be Trump’s fate, but if Trump continues on the path he is on he may well get whacked (in a manner of speaking) like a Mafiosi. Cosmic forces work in mysterious ways.

        Reply ↓
        1. Yves Smith Post author

          I beg to differ on Israel. These attacks are driven by our fealty to Israel. And Iran will keep pounding Israel, so the need to defend Israel will become an additional justification.

          Reply ↓
  50. Jason Boxman

    And MTG is sane

    Every time America is on the verge of greatness, we get involved in another foreign war.

    There would not be bombs falling on the people of Israel if Netanyahu had not dropped bombs on the people of Iran first.

    Israel is a nuclear armed nation.

    This is not our fight.

    Peace is the answer. 🙏

    https://x.com/repmtg/status/1936564082477531596?s=46

    Make this timeline make sense

    Reply ↓
  51. nyleta

    Iran can’t let it stand, Israel wants to turn it into another Lebanon which it can enter and bomb whenever it likes for ever more. However many Iranians have to die they can’t accept it.

    There is a report that their Navy chief said the straight will be closed ( can’t verify this yet ) The Houthies have already torn up their agreement with the US and will start Red Sea attacks immediately.

    Reply ↓

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