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Proxy Fighters in the Fog of War

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Most analysts not huffing the hopium don’t believe even the involvement of the mighty US will defeat Iran or topple its government. The larger question might be what other dirty tricks the CIA and Mossad might have up their sleeve in order to destabilize Tehran. Specifically, what could the role of the Kurds, Azerbaijan, and Türkiye and its takfiri soldiers be in pursuit of that goal?

Ahead of the Al Qaeda takeover of Syria we wrote about how Türkiye was suddenly finding itself the recipient of good will from the West and how that likely meant something was afoot. We have a similar situation playing out now as the long-dreamed-of plan to topple the ayatollahs is underway. For months, the EU has been increasing Türkiye’s role in the bloc’s defense industries and it was recently capped off by news last week that  the two sides will hold defense talks after a three-year pause. Ankara is looking for access to the EU’s new $170 billion defense fund. Now, this could be solely related to EU desperation in its struggle to “rearm” in the face of the Russian “threat.” But in the past such moves have coincided with action in the Middle East, and Türkiye is already being accused of playing a role to destabilize the government in Tehran.

So let’s take a look, starting with Türkiye and others’ potential role in the war against Iran. As the neocon outfit Middle East Forum noted on June 13:

…airstrikes alone will not bring down the Islamic Republic. If the regime is to collapse, it will require internal pressure—particularly from Iran’s national and ethnic minorities, such as the Kurds and the Baluch, who not only harbor long-standing grievances but also possess organized armed forces and strong territorial ties…Tehran long has exploited fragmentation. Now is the time to correct that. A joint front, even if temporary and tactically aligned, rather than ideologically unified, could tip the balance. It would signal to Tehran and the international community that these groups are not only resisting but ready to govern…The burden of completing what outside powers can only begin now rests on the shoulders of Iran’s national minorities.

The Jerusalem Post provided a mini blueprint last week in an editorial “Trump must help Israel finish the job to dismantle Khamenei’s regime” which includes the following key item:

Forge a Middle East coalition for Iran’s partition. Encourage long-term plans for a federalized or partitioned Iran, recognizing that Khamenei’s theocratic regime cannot be reformed. Offer security guarantees to Sunni, Kurdish, and Balochi minority regions willing to break away.

Here’s more:

Is it wishful thinking or does it reflect a sliver of facts on the ground in Iran? That’s the great unknown at the moment. What’s assumed is that Iran is a stronger state than Syria was—even at the beginning of the regime operation there—and it has stronger allies who should be wise to the CIA-Mossad game.

While Kurds make up roughly 10 percent of Iran’s population, Turkic peoples, including Azerbaijanis, constitute around 20 percent, and in the country’s West Azerbaijan and East Azerbaijan Provinces the population is mostly Azeris and Kurds. Baku makes some noise about self-determination there, and it is customary for the CIA and Mossad to use ethnic diversity against governments it wants to topple. Do Mossad and the CIA (and probably MIT) have the ability to foment unrest and start a Syria-style dirty war? They do have a map:

Despite the endless war of words between Türkiye and Israel, the two along with Azerbaijan are strong allies when it comes to energy, weapons, and other cooperation in the region, including radar in Türkiye being used to help defend Israel, as well as a recent Bayraktar-Leonardo deal (more on that below):

Azerbaijan fossil fuels flowing through Türkiye to Israel have helped power the Zionist genocide of Palestinians and other violence over the past two years.. It was Israeli and Turkish firepower that gave Azerbaijan the upper end in recent conflicts with Armenia. Mossad has long had a heavy presence in Azerbaijan, and there are reports that Israeli drone attacks on Iran are originating from Azerbaijan:

Add it all up, and Iran could have problems at much of its Northern and Western borders—if it doesn’t already.

Erdogan’s peace deal with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) begins to make a lot more sense if we look at the effort to topple the government in Iran. While the rapprochement is driven in part by domestic political maneuvering, including his bid to create a new constitution enabling him to run for a third presidential term in 2028, it is also likely part of the interlocking puzzle to pressure Tehran all along its borders. In addition to potential trouble seeping across into Iran from Azerbaijan and Türkiye, the peace deal with the Kurds has a spillover effect into Iraq — or at least that’s the plan.

According to Henri Barkey, an adjunct senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, the Turks making peace with the PKK gives them a leg up in the battle between Ankara and Tehran to influence Kurds in northern Iraq.

No doubt, the CIA and Mossad were involved in that peace deal as well and are involved in ongoing efforts to influence Kurds to join the fight against Iran. Recent US energy deals with the Iraqi Kurdistan Region also likely help. The Iraqi-Based Kurdish Leader of the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK) is calling on Kurds inside and outside of Iran to attack, seize Iran Revolutionary Guard intelligence bases, and  bring down the regime. The PAK reportedly only has about 1,000 fighters, although they say they fight like 10,000. 

There are many other Kurdish groups—from Syria, Iraq, and Iran—who could also be inspired to help destabilize the government, however, and while estimates vary, there are likely well over 100,000 fighters. What a dream for Ankara for the Kurds to be fighting Iran and in effect strengthening Türkiye?

Let’s also not forget that the CIA-Mossad-MIT have, according to Vanessa Beeley’s sources, up to 12 million takfiris in Türkiye, which is likely an overestimate but capable of causing a lot of trouble regardless. Ankara, for its part, has denied allegations of Mossad infiltration of Iran through its border.

While all the attention is on strikes between Israel and Iran (and whether the US starts launching too) maybe the bigger question is how well-protected are Iran’s borders stretching from northern Iraq to the Caspian Sea? They are very porous, according to reports.

Turkish Interests in Destabilizing Iran

Why, aside from any carrots offered from the West, might Türkiye increase its efforts to destabilize Iran? Erdogan reminded the US of this at the UN meeting, telling reporters that it would be impossible for Ankara and Washington to achieve their long-term cooperative trade and security goals if the US does not abandon “additional tariffs in the iron, steel, and aluminum sectors, probes and the CAATSA sanctions.”

Let’s look at some of those long term security goals as they pertain to Iran.

Simply put, Türkiye’s power would grow with Iran’s weakening. Türkiye, which is largely governed by neo-Ottomanists with grand visions, wants to open a corridor through southern Armenia that links it up with Azerbaijan and the rest of the Turkic world. And we now have the US heavily embedded in Armenia and its Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan making a historic visit to Türkiye. The Azerbaijani president visited Erdogan just beforehand. It is believed that much of the movement involves efforts to open the regional corridors, which would allow for the completion of an Azerbaijan-Armenia peace deal. And the Iran-Israel war is giving added impetus to the talks. Here’s what Ankara envisions with the corridor:

  • A gas pipeline from Baku to Türkiye.
  • Increased leverage in negotiating gas prices with Iran (regime change in Tehran could mean getting a real sweetheart deal from a new government or potentially annexing territory).
  • Resurrecting the Trans-Caspian pipeline and transporting that gas through Türkiye to Europe (A pipeline through a Nakhchivan corridor could help boost supplies to Europe to upwards of 31 bcm, although that would be years away, and ironically, due to its heavy investments in the Azerbaijani oil and gas sector, one of the bigger beneficiaries of any Brussels-Baku deals would be Russia. Azerbaijan is even importing more Russian gas itself in order to meet its obligations to Europe.
  • A logistics corridor stretching to China.
  • A railroad line from Türkiye to Nakhchivan could make Türkiye a regional transit hub in addition to an energy one.

Even the bare minimum of these grand designs would hurt Tehran economically as it would be eliminated as a bypass route around Armenia. Details from Al Monitor:

Iran earns a 15% commission from Azerbaijan’s gas supplies to Nakhchivan. It serves also as a route for Turkish exports to Central Asia. An average of about 12,000 Turkish trucks use the route monthly, with Iran charging passage fees of up to $800 for their 1,800-kilometer (1,120-mile) journey to the Turkmenistan border.

Tehran has in the past made clear that any territorial changes along its border with Armenia and Azerbaijan — which includes any Zangezur Corridor — are red lines, but is it in the position now to do anything? Iranian officials are claiming they recently thwarted an attempt to open the corridor:

It’s unclear what exactly they are referring to—although it could be the strange peace deal that was announced between Azerbaijan and Armenia in March and yet still hasn’t materialized due to some of the same old sticking points, which Iran could have helped encourage Yerevan to hold firm on. The US armed forces now has representatives stationed in the Armenian Defense Ministry. And I’m struggling to think of an example off the top of my head of when the US helped shepherd a deal to bring peace and prosperity to any region of the world. On top of that, Azerbaijan is in bed with the Israelis. So we have here two countries (Armenia and Azerbaijan) at odds since the dissolution of the USSR, but which are in other ways now two sides to the same coin due to their international partners.

Iran is worried about losing influence over Baku should a peace deal involving a corridor come to fruition, as Azerbaijan relies on transit through Iran to connect to its exclave. But most of all, Tehran fears a NATO Turan corridor on its northern border. From the Gulf International Forum:

The Strategic Council of Foreign Relations in Tehran, whose director is Iran’s former Minister of Foreign Affairs Kamal Kharazi, warned against the construction of the Zangezur Corridor in an article titled “Conspiracy to Create NATO’s Turan Corridor.” In that article, the council indicated that the corridor’s completion would have significant geopolitical consequences for Iran, Russia, and China. This corridor has been introduced to NATO’s “Turan Corridor,” a project ostensibly supported by Israel and NATO, and Turkey and Azerbaijan are alleged to want to foment ethnic unrest in the areas of Iran where Turks live by building this corridor. The author of the article believes that NATO’s Turan Corridor is supposed to directly bring NATO onto the northern border of Iran, the southern border of Russia, and western China in Xinjiangand complete the plan to encircle these countries and lay the groundwork for their disintegration. NATO’s presence in the Caucasus and Central Asia complements Russia’s blockade plan from the Black Sea, China’s blockade from the South China Sea, and Iran’s blockade from the Persian Gulf.

American neocons have long dreamed of doing all of that.

Another Türkiye-West “Reset”

With Iran regime change efforts underway, the EU is increasingly bringing Türkiye into the defense industry fold while the US eases up sanctions.

Perhaps the biggest news of all on this front is that, according to Erdogan, the US is easing up on 2017 the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). Washington imposed sanctions on Ankara in 2020 over its purchase of the Russian-made S-400 missile defense system. Erdogan said a month ago that the sanctions, which have hammered Türkiye’s defense sector, are softening and that steps toward lifting them are progressing rapidly, which Türkiye has insisted on for years.

As the following tweet from shadow president Lindsey Graham illustrates, CAATSA is used by the US to obtain Türkiye’s cooperation in the region:

Elsewhere, Turkiye has been building strong defense ties with individual EU countries over the past year. Examples include the recent launch of a joint venture between Turkish drone maker Baykar and Italian defense contractor Leonardo (and whaddya know, Leonardo has very close defense ties with Israel), ammunition production with Poland, military vehicle supply to Romania, and naval programs with Portugal. The Italy-Türkiye deal, in particular, could produce a windfall for Erdogan, whose son-in-law runs Bayraktar, as the defense cooperation will target the European UAV market, which is projected to reach $100 billion in the coming decade.

Türkiye’s relatively large manufacturing base and cheap and reliable fossil fuel supply (largely from Russia) makes it a natural partner to deindustrializing EU states. But Ankara wants even more: a seat at the table shaping Europe’s defense strategy and a role as the bloc’s industrial defense base with access to the $170 billion defense fund. Both sides are going to have to find a way to overcome objections from Greece and Cyprus, however.

Türkiye is also getting in close with the Three Seas Initiative, a Washington and Brussels project that along with the US  National Defense Authorization Act aims to further cement US control over an arc of “rules-based order” states from Baltic to the Adriatic and Black Seas — as well as the Caspian. Despite a lot of initial fanfare, the initiative doesn’t really build much of anything, but it could mean money coming Türkiye’s way.

We’ll have to wait and see what happens with Türkiye’s bid to purchase 40 Eurofighter-Typhoon new-generation aircraft as Germany is believed to be holding up the sale.

Recall prior to the Syria offensive, Germany and others eased off a years-long unofficial embargo on defense exports to Türkiye. Two months ahead of that operation, Der Spiegel reported that Germany’s Federal Security Council, which meets in secret, was approving the sale of $368 million worth of heavy weaponry to Türkiye, as well as reconsidering Türkiye’s request to purchase Eurofighter warplanes.

According to the Economist and other mainstream outlets, the warming defense ties between the West and Turkey are about Ukraine. But we must remember that the EU is largely an auxiliary of the US empire, which has long used EU economic carrots and sticks to spread Washington’s imperial reach. And as Alastair Crooke noted recently, all western intelligence agencies  are coordinating in what’s quickly shaping up as a civilizational battle between East and West, and Turkish intelligence has long been very tight with the CIA and others. Recall it was largely a Mossad-CIA-MIT operation that toppled Assad, and ahead of that takfiri offensive, we saw similar carrots going to Türkiye.

While all the attention is on the back and forth between Israel and Iran and the US strikes, the use of proxy regime change armies fit the US and Israeli M.O. and —assuming the US and Israel don’t go nuclear— will likely be the deciding factor in whether the regime change effort becomes a long term dirty war or fizzles out.

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10 comments

  1. vao

    Then there is the Eastern flank, where the Baloch are a thorn both for Iran and for Pakistan, with a guerrilla simmering for decades, costing lives and equipment to the armed forces of both countries.

    Oddly enough, Iran and Pakistan do not seem to cooperate much to handle the situation. Since the Pakistani military and intelligence services have been closely working with their British and American colleagues since, well forever, it looks very much as if Iran is completely surrounded — just like Lebanon after the fall of Assad, just like Palestinians, and just like the Yemenis.

    My bet on “whether the regime change effort becomes a long term dirty war or fizzles out” is for a sustained sapping operation that will go crescendo, as Israel and the USA, after repeated victories (Syria, Lebanon), an on-going fight with an inevitably favourable outlook for them (Palestine), and just one fiasco (Yemen) reach for the big prize (Iran).

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  2. schmoe

    Connor.

    Excellent analysis of the ethnic fissures that could make this more than a regime change solely via air strikes.

    Expect air strikes on Iranian forces guarding the northern border, and if ethnic groups are able to form organized resistance, it is safe to assume that the US and Israel will, as was the case in Syria, provide air cover for the “moderate rebel” forces.

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  3. Tom67

    A bit off topic but maybe relevant: 10 years ago I was in Aserbeidshan to visit the famous Mugram jazz clubs. I altogether spent nearly two weeks in the country. I can´t claim any deeper knowledge of the country but one thing really and deeply surprised me: the extent of Iranian cultural influence or “soft power”. Whatever one might read in the West about Iran and whatever the very real contradictions within Iran – the country has had a real revolution and there have been real improvements especially for the lower strata of the population. Iran it is not simply a top down dictatorship like Aserbeidshan. There are real democratic elements in the constitution and the sanctions have resulted in Iran having much more of an industrial base than Aserbeidshan. All that is well known in Aserbeidshan and Iranian films and Music are popular.
    Aserbeidshan’s official state ideology rests on little more than a – by any standards extreme – nationalism and the stability of the regime on a suppressive apparatus that makes Iran seem like paradise in comparison. Aserbeidshan teaming up with Turkey, the US and Israel against Iran seems to me quite a gamble considering that the government rests on little more than repression and the successful Karabakh war. If Iran isn´t quickly defeated I think it is in the realm of possibility that it is Aserbeidshan that will experience regime change.

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  4. Jesper

    In addition to what has mentioned this might be another complication:
    https://www.unhcr.org/ir/refugees-iran

    The Islamic Republic of Iran is host to one of the largest and most protracted urban refugee situations in the world and has provided asylum to refugees for over four decades. Forty-two years on since the 1979 Soviet invasion and the subsequent waves of violence, displacement from Afghanistan continues in the longest protracted refugee situation covered under UNHCR’s mandate. Nearly five million Afghans remain displaced outside of the country; of these, 90% are hosted by the Islamic Republics of Pakistan and Iran.

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  5. DJG, Reality Czar

    Conor Gallagher, I know that you lived in Istanbul, so you may have better sources, but I also have some doubts.

    First, the figure of 12 million takfiri (fundamentalists) within Turkiye strikes me as awfully high. Turkish Islam has always tended to be pietistic with a strong Sufi ethic. Turkiye was the home of the Bektashi order, the dervishes, and several other Sufi / mystical groups — with many members. Further, although estimates vary considerably, the Alevi, who are heterodox and egalitarian, and who worship at tekke instead of mosques, number somewhere around 25 million. And have been persecuted as heretics.

    Second, this business about dismantling other countries. It’s so easy! Only a couple of million corpses!

    The Azeris of Iran outnumber the Azeris in Azerbaijan. The history of the two groups has diverged. After all, Azerbaijan was a Soviet republic. Iranian Azerbaijan has been part of Iran / Persian for centuries.

    Same with Kurdistan. And I wonder if the geniuses who want to hive off a landlocked Kurdistan from Iran have a plan for the Kurdish region of Iraq. Likely, the geniuses are assuming that Iraqi Kurds are all content and happy. They’d never join up with a Kurdish Republic …

    Oh. And then we’re talking Rojava. Plus the radical tendency in Kurdish politics, as evidenced by the social experiment in Rojava. Hmmm. Red Kurdistan. I bet Pete Hegseth hasn’t considered that.

    Plus the estimated 25 million Kurds in Turkiye, who aren’t likely to have a short memory of how brutally the central government has treated them.

    So the plan of Divine Lindsay Graham (who is looking more and more like Divine, and not like a godhead) has plenty of built-in backfire.

    These vultures who want to feed on the corpse may be in for some surprises.

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    1. Conor Gallagher Post author

      Thanks, DJG. I agree. It’s hard to see how this works as Iran is not Syria (and a dozen other reasons), and I’m certainly not arguing that any of this will be a walk in the park, but do think it’s important to examine the Zionist line of thinking here. They have shocked us before.

      FWIW, it appears that even the neocons at the Middle East Forum are starting to have some doubts as thus far the Kurds have not greeted the Zionists as liberators: https://www.meforum.org/mef-observer/irans-kurds-at-a-crossroads

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      1. DJG, Reality Czar

        Thanks, Conor. Agreed. We have to look at events from all sides to see what the various adversaries are up to.

        Meanwhile, of course, thoughtful U.S. liberals are wondering: Persians, are they brown or are they beige? Dissolving once again into liberal irrelevance.

        All in all, though, I suspect that we are in one of those “Don’t know much about history” phases. The U.S. elite and Israel’s elite tend to be ahistorical. They underestimated the Russian Federation. They underestimated the Palestinians. Now, they want to take down a country of 92 million people and drive to Hilton Head to visit Lindsay for the weekend.

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  7. jrkrideau

    Erdogan’s peace deal with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) begins to make a lot more sense if we look at the effort to topple the government in Iran.

    I have a problem visualizing Türkiye wanting to encourage an independent Kurdish state from part of Iran. Does this not serve as a rallying point for Turkish, Syrian, and Iraqi Kurds who want independence? And probably Armenian Kurds?

    Supporting an independent Kurdish state seems just the best way possible to have the PKK break its agreement with Türkiye.

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  8. The Rev Kev

    Great analysis here, Conor. I would bring up one point. Erdogan may seek to weaken Iran for Turkiye’s gain but there may be a problem here. Israel are all in on Iran and have been for decades as that is the one country that blocks their total hegemony and the rise of Greater Israel. But consider what happens if Iran falls. Already Israel are talking like they have this war all wrapped up and are talking about the next nations that they want to destroy. And here I have heard the names Qatar, Pakistan – and Turkiye. I have heard that people in Turkiye are talking about this happening as well as Israel will never tolerate a power like Turkiye remaining intact. So if Edogan helps collapse Iran, then that would bring his country within Israel’s gunsights. And in a conflict between Turkiye and Israel, guess which country the US would back.

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