Yves here. Richard Murphy calls out a recession indicator: women cutting back on their hair salon expenditures, here hair color. About 75% of American women dye their locks, making this a useful and close to real-time indicators. Roots begin to show again at ~5 weeks, but usually not too much until ~8 weeks after the last dye job.
I recall this pattern after the financial crisis; it was reported in the media (IIRC New York Magazine and likely others). At least in an appearance-fixated city like New York, the anecdata was that women were waiting longer before getting their hair colored than before, as opposed to giving up entirely (one of my friends points out that wigs are an option :-)).
Another belt-tightening reported then was cutbacks in visits to the dentist, not just for cosmetic treatments but also checkups, as well as doctor visits, although at least then, dentists seemed to take the bigger hit.
Obviously, discretionary consumer spending will see widespread reductions when times are cut, but the fact that medical maintenance and interventions are on that list is yet another US disgrace.
Other sensitive indicators then were restaurant visits. One can imagine coffee shops are even more vulnerable.
Of course, if declines are steep enough, that in turns intensifies a contraction, since owners will reduce staffing levels and may eventually have to shutter operations.
What items would you add to the list of “fast to get cut” expenses that can give an early warning of a downturn?
By Richard Murphy, Professor of Accounting Practice at Sheffield University Management School and a director of the Corporate Accountability Network. Originally published at Funding the Future.
As readers here will know, I am a fan of the idea of the ‘economics of walking about’, which is an idea created by my friend and occasional co-author, Danny Blanchflower.
In that context, this article from the Huffington Post was drawn to my attention:
The latest recession indicator? The number of “recession blondes” walking around with their natural roots showing.
President Donald Trump has played coy about the possibility of his tariffs causing a recession, telling NBC News earlier this month that any economic pain would just be part of a “transition period.” But hairdressers and others in the beauty industry are already seeing hints of a recession, as business tapers off, and clients let their hair grow long and uncolored.
Fashion has always been seen as an indicator of economic sentiment, most especially with regard to skirt hemline length. Short skirts are meant to indicate a strong, confident mood, and an upbeat economy, whilst long skirts are meant to indicate an economic downturn. Anybody who notices these things will have become aware of how long many skirts are at present.
Now, it seems, we have a new indicator based upon women having sufficient money available to afford to have their hair dyed. I am absolutely certain that the article is based upon fact: the trend that it notes appears to be happening.
It has long been known that in downturns, women do not give up on fashion, but adapt to their current circumstances. It was during the 1930s that the consequence was first described as the lipstick economy. When money disappeared for everything else, women bought lipsticks if there was no other item that they could afford to enhance their morale.
I am quite sure that the present display of undyed roots is an economic necessity, but fashion will adapt to embrace it, whilst some other items, which are cheaper than dyed hair, will still be afforded.
Economics is, if it is anything of worth, a study of human adaptability. That is why I find the version of it that I enjoy partaking in so fascinating.
Hmmm. If women are waiting longer before getting their hair coloured than before because the economy is starting to stall out, would that imply that in a full blown Depression we would find out what women’s real hair colour actually is? And wasn’t there a saying on Wall Street how the harsher the economic times, the more attractive the women are working restaurants in their local because their normal work opportunities had gone away?
Might not be so easy: blondes dye their hair blonder, for example. My favorite woman friend has naturally dirty-ish blonde hair, except when she goes to salon, it’s uniformly golden blonde. Over time, other still blondeish-but-darker shades show up again, but the difference has never been that clearly visible and you have some trouble noticing the difference–until she has uniform hair color again.
Most blonde hair changes colour over life. The bright blond youth often gets a darker shade in adult life. Then it gets lighter again, but nobody appears to appreciate that, because by then it is also gray. Dyeing is another way of postponing the appearance of the reality that bodies ages.
“Short skirts are meant to indicate a strong, confident mood, and an upbeat economy, whilst long skirts are meant to indicate an economic downturn.”
Is this a generally recognized indicator and is there an explanation for it?
I think that that was an observation by Professor Seymour Leggs.
lol
Maybe the first time I’ve cackled out loud reading an NC comment.
Short skirts require a range of complementary items, such as good-quality shoes and stockings, well-shaved legs, well-groomed feet and well-polished toenails, etc. When economic conditions force us to give up one or more of these things, long skirts are more appropriate.
Manicures, cable television and now streaming services, gym memberships are some other obvious choices. Where or if to vacation, although tourism itself is under attack from our government stupidity (I fully expect there to be some huge shocks to top American tourist destinations this summer that have nothing to do with the recession except increasing it.)
Something harder to track are grocery choices – not just the chicken instead of beef and beans instead of chicken but even which stores to shop in as more.of the “middle class” people get squeezed like working poor.
Children’s classes and services, most hobbies, and much as it saddens me pet ownership along with pet care (better food and vet visits) are going to be on the chopping block.
Thank you, Yves.
One apologises profusely if my comment is seen as lowering the tone.
Some, but not all, readers will be aware that the English social season is in full swing. Royal Ascot starts tomorrow,
I am often asked by former colleagues in private banking and wealth management or their concierge services proxies to brief “elite courtesans” booked to attend some events, usually equestrian. The sex workers, often mums and even in relationships, charge at least GBP300 per hour and GBP3000 for 24 hours, but are often flexible. They report bookings drying up. The younger ones and / or those without family responsibilities are travelling around Asia as work in Europe and North America dries up. It’s reported that clients / suitors, regulars and irregulars / savers have pulled back from the turn of the year. They recognise themselves as canaries in the coal mine.
Colonel S: It’s reported that clients / suitors, regulars and irregulars / savers have pulled back from the turn of the year.
Yup. You’ll recall that this was already evident at Davos back in January.
Thank you, M.
Cannes, too. Not just the film festival, but their other ones, too. Monaco grand prix, too.
Grey can be very fashionable ( and not cheap), and 2025 is a “grey is in” year. I’d be interested in seeing changes in how people handle their skin (Botox, expensive moisturizers, etc), as skin is the primary universal age indicator.
Over 50 female here.
I’ve chosen to keep my hair natural colored despite a good amount of gray at this point. This has been since I started graying… Because of the health of my hair (dye and such is no good for your hair health) and money, even though I could have/still can afford it. I live simply and below my means.
Facial care products – I have made a deliberate change in what I buy, from more expensive products to much more affordable (the ordinary). This is to be offset the cost of groceries (which I don’t skimp on). We also never eat out, for what it’s worth, so I feel having good food at home is worth it.
It depends on your skin color. Some women look fabulous with grey hair. In my former apt. in NYC, there was an over 60 year old model who lived in the building: great cheekbones, big eyes, good jawline, tall and trim, who mainly wore her grey hair in a ponytail. So too did her boyfriend. :-)
But on other women, natural grey can look like crap.
Skin tone is the only thing that matters. It’s all about skin tone.
Skin tone and posture.
By color I meant what you mean as tone. There are Caucasians who have coloring very similar to Asians (a lot of yellow undertone) for instance.
I believe that both skin tone and the shade of gray the hair takes determine whether the natural route is attractive. The rinses used sixty years ago were all about controlling the color undertone that gray hair had to make it more compatible with people’s skin color. In my great grandmother’s and grandmother’s cases their blue rinses were to offset the yellow tinge their hair had.
Yes, the senior model’s grey hair was not yellow-tinged. Obviously I don’t know if she did something rinse-like.
Fwiw, my could-have-been mother in law looked fabulous with gray hair, but then, my favorite woman friend also looked exactly like her…. ;)
Thank you, Yves.
This post reminds me of what was said about France during covid. Lock down would expose how many fake blondes there are.
Thus, the riff on the old folk song:
Black Is the Colour of my Love’s True Hair
“But only her hairdresser knows.” – T. & R. Smothers.
Chemical blonds.
Ha!
See also “Bottle Blondes” … :)
This making me remember Lambert bring up refrigerated truck sales as a proxy for COVID deaths – hospitals/morgues ran out of capacity – during the initial spikes of the COVID pandemic. I’ll take it as a proxy for sure, and you can probably gauge class by who is still getting their roots done as well.
I think we have another proxy now with people ditching coffee for tea. The idea being covid causes gut trouble and coffee being blamed for stomach irritation.
In any case proper black yunnan tea is fantastic and I am not looking back.
Root, Hog or Die, performed by June Carter Cash
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZ4Elwdp0XA
Anybody who notices these things will have become aware of how long many skirts are at present.ent.
Hmmmm? Women still wear skirts?
Skirts are the perfect wear when the weather is hot and air conditioning is expensive
On special occasions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Ov_tDoDsAQ
Since “lived-in hair” has been a thing for a while now I wonder if economic down-turn has already been priced into the hair industry in the U.S. Granted it’s expensive initially but is sold as “low-maintenance”.
My recession indicator is how many beauty influencers feature drugstore lines vs. higher-end “new launches” in their posts. I haven’t seen much of that yet but I expect to soon – I also expect more trendy high-end online cosmetics brands to copy L’oréal and put out drugstore lines featuring dupes of their own products (as Merit did with Versed).
I work in a salon and another issue we are having is staffing. It’s very expensive to go to cosmetology school, and many young people don’t think it’s worth it in terms of income and lack of benefits. Also daycare is so expensive that many young moms stay home rather than pay their day’s wages to hand their kid over. The workers tend to be older now, and we rely on people from foreign countries especially Vietnam.
This is sad to hear. My mom was a beautician, salon owner at one point, and very good . . . You should have heard her clients lament her leaving to go to school to get her teaching credentials! My goodness! But she taught cosmetology at a community college in the San Francisco Bay Area and it was very affordable that way. It sounds like that option is either gone or much rarer now.
I am guessing that many of the redheads out there now are not natural. In fact quite a few don’t even look like they are trying for natural. When did red get fashionable? It was probably the least fashionable color in my long ago youth. Now almost every heroine on popular fiction book covers has bright red hair.
I dye my own hair; the majority of American women do; there is a huge section of hair dyes in Walgreens and in Walmart. It costs $12 and takes less than an hour. If that becomes too expensive, well, the country is in real trouble. Of course this doesn’t look as good as professional hair dying. In my case in addition to the cost I dislike human interactions enough to prefer to do it myself and look worse.
So along with undyed hair, it would be necessary to look out for less well dyed hair, in case women who typically go to salons start dying their own hair.
“71% of women choose to color their hair at home instead of visiting a salon. L’Oreal holds the largest market share in the hair color industry with 28.6%. Over 50% of women who color their hair opt for blonde shades.Nov 13, 2024” (https://scandinavianbiolabs.com/blogs/journal/hair-dye-statistics#:~:text=71%25%20of%20women%20choose%20to,hair%20opt%20for%20blonde%20shades.)
When it comes to hair salons, in my neck of the woods salons with older staff charge considerably less for the same services than do salons with young staff. So, a recession indicator may be there being fewer salons with young staff.
Long time stylist here. Started the biz in 87. Slightly echoing Naked Emperor’s comment- it has been my observation that younger people and often people of limited means will spend huge sums of money for very complex color processes with younger stylists while their mums and grand mums see us veteran stylists and pay a fraction of the cost. I don’t get the appeal of it myself, but the “hombre” look is very popular and has been for a decade now. Hombre is a purposeful look where it looks like they have an inch of regrowth on the day they walk out of the salon. Dark roots with light ends. Having roots used to be a sign that you weren’t taking care of yourself. Now they pay extra to look that way.
During the lockdowns a lot of ladies decided to let their gray grow out. This was a hit on our business. I lost 3-5 regulars. Which considering “regulars” are often in every 4 weeks, that is a hit. A loss of a days work per month? Now some with gray roots feel a little more empowered and let their roots go 5 weeks rather than 4. Good for them, but a 20% business loss for me (on a per client basis). These changes have been slow enough though, most good stylists can make up the losses. Inflation gave us an easy explainer to raise prices. Lose 10% of your clients but charge the others 10% more. Then fill in the 10% gap and you come out ok.
Today’s younger clients are spending SO MUCH more on beauty. Many of the under 35 crowd are having nail appointments, blow outs, facials, eye brow and lash work done regularly. But for every one of those big spenders there are many who now just get one trim per year on their long natural colored hair. Honestly, for me the late 80’s and 90’s was the hay day for stylists. “Wedge” cuts (think Mary Lou Retton and Demi Moore in ghost) required 4 week intervals for cuts. Meg Ryan (I will have what she’s having) inspired many with her look and that needed 6 week intervals. And a perm.
So the business changes, but I don’t buy that it is a good indicator of overall economic activity. My clients at least will make other changes to their budget before foregoing color. And FYI, it is still a good career. High performing people can make 150K per year (and beyond). And working moms can structure their earnings so they can stay get Medicaid type coverage.
I am still trying to repress the memory of the dreadful perms of my 1970s youth; some done in salons (even a few upscale salons), some done at home. Back then the last thing you wanted was to have thin, fine, straight hair, but really perms did not help. I was just astounded when straight hair came to be counted as desirable. About 20 years ago (pretty much the last time I was in a salon), I asked the lady who was cutting my hair about perms. She said that really no-one wanted them anymore; that everyone wanted straight hair; that she did straightening but basically no perms.
Have you noticed that more women than you’d expect are having thinning hair? I know that hair thins with age, but from the articles I’m seeing I think the pandemic may have sped this up, maybe by changes in thyroid function? Or other autoimmune problems?
I have no anecdata supporting thinning hair related to pandemic issues. IMHO “fad diets” are a bigger issue with thinning hair. The zero fat diets of 20 years ago were especially bad for that.
Perms were such a horrid phase of the industry.
Brazilian blow outs are disappearing due to stylists fears about cancer. Dead clients are not good for business.
You certainly know your business. I wonder what those younger generations, following consumer beauty influencers, whom you call big spenders, will do in recession, since there are also “buy nothing” and “natural” influencers to follow.
Off the topic of hair, what about skin? The tattooing business has had a tremendous boom for some years now. I wonder how bad economic times need to get for tattoos to go out of style. I’m definitely ready for that development, as I find tattoos hideous in general.