Yves here. Yours truly had another post in the works, but high odds of war with Iran takes precedence. Trump has approved a US strike package for Iran but is allegedly holding off to see how Tehran responds to his latest ultimatum, which is to give up not just nuclear enrichment but also ballistic missiles, that is, render itself defenseless,. Trump has put pedal to the metal and has also thrown the steering wheel out the window. He’s created too much in the way of expectation of action to reverse course. TACO is prevailing: Trump is unwilling and/or unable to stand up to the Israel lobby and neocons.
Even though we put up a short post on open question, will the Strait of Hormuz close to traffic due to Iran action or insurer/shipper cautiousness, we thought it would be useful to highlight some other issues while waiting to see if, which now looks to be when, Trump pulls the trigger.
One is an important bit of information hygiene, since the propaganda seems to have distorted the risk assessment of not just members of the great unwashed public but also decision-makers. Israel has repeatedly claimed to have achieved air superiority in Iran. That’s nonsense. Other analysts have disputed this claim. For one stop shopping, we’ll turn the mike over to Simplicius:
Israel’s own claims of establishing total ‘air superiority’ over Iran are fraudulent: Israeli planes are not flying over Iran—there is zero evidence to support this claim.
Israel has been utilizing a combination of drone strikes—for which there is a mountain of evidence. UCAV drones are less detectable and expendable, which allows Israel to push them towards Tehran while suffering losses to shoot downs that don’t affect their public standing.
Every single strike video released thus far from Israel shows footage from a UCAV or surveillance recon drone cam, like in this case:
IAI Heron, Harop, and Hermes drones have been spotted in Iranian airspace numerous times:
And not a single video exists of any Israeli aircraft in Iranian airspace, but tons of video showing Israeli missile booster stages recovered in Syria and Iraq, indicating that Israel continues to fire missiles like the Blue Sparrow from outside Iran’s borders.
Other strike videos show the cam from the Delilah missile, which has a range of 250km+ and can reach many western Iranian sites even when fired outside the border.
🇮🇷 Israeli Drone Shot Down Near Iran’s Natanz Nuclear Facility
The deputy governor of Isfahan has confirmed that the IRGC’s Khordad-3 air defense system intercepted and destroyed an Israeli drone near the Natanz nuclear facility, close to the city of Kashan.
Earlier, at least two of the flagship Israeli Hermes UCAV drones were shot down over Iran:
The images proved that Israel is utilizing laser-guided drone bombs to hit all the Iranian vehicles seen in strike videos, while long distance cruise and ballistic missiles like the Air LORA are used to hit larger infrastructural targets:
An Israeli Air Force Hermes 900 attack UAV shot down by the Iranians.
The suspension nodes of the intercepted Hermes-900 reconnaissance and strike UAV of the Israeli Air Force were equipped with small-sized guided aerial bombs ‘Miholit’, which are analogous to the Russian KAB-20S and Turkish MAM-L.
The weapons are equipped with semi-active laser (or thermal imaging) guidance systems and have a range of 12-15 km when dropped from altitudes of 5,500+ m.
It is obvious that this UAV was used directly to engage mobile anti-aircraft artillery systems of the Iranian Air Defence Forces.
There has only been one single piece of footage I’ve personally seen that could indicate Israeli jets just barely skirted Iranian territory, wherein it looked like possible JDAMS were dropped on Kermanshah, which is just barely over 100km+ from the Iranian border:
JDAMS typically have a range of 25-50km, though the JDAM-ER can do 75km+ but it’s uncertain if Israel possesses it. This strike could have represented Israeli jets getting a few miles over the border, but that’s about as far as they’re willing to go.
The big question is: why?
Because Israel has not yet degraded Iranian long range air defense whatsoever.
As many readers know, the Washington Post reported a couple of days ago that if Iran kept up its attacks on Israel at its current tempo for ten to twelve more days, that Israel would find its air defenses depleted. Israeli media claimed yesterday (and this was picked by Aljazeera) that Iran had launched fewer missiles that day, which Israel presented as the usual “they are about to run out of missiles” tale.
If the US bought Israel, erm, intel, the two claims above would translate into the US having an easy go of finishing off Iran.
I think the the Iranians are playing mind games with the Israeli regime and that they are
changing tactics but also the . S so this is not just Israelis. The Americans are carrying the real weight here. They’re doing the heavy lifting right now. And so the Americans and the Israelis, they’re firing everything they have and soon they’ll run out of ammunition. So the Iranians are trying to push them to keep spending that that ammunition and at the same time, Iran is completely prepared for a potential American strike.
The bit of bravura does not mean that Mirandi is incorrect. Recall that Iran executed a similar strategy in a pre-negotiated retaliation on Israel last fall, sending a huge wave of slow-moving drones to deplete and confuse Israeli air defenses before sending in ballistic missiles that hit their targets precisely.
John Helmer independently came to a similar view. From a different Dialogue Works interview:
I’m not in a position to confirm that um Iran has not lost its air defenses. They’re being held in reserve.They’re being held in reserve in such a way that the advisers to President Trump are advising him that they’re being held in reserve, that there’s a serious risk of the kind of air attack that’s
being prepared, US tankers F-35s, F-15s, you can all read the way these being these are being redeployed, AC from the United States across Europe down to the Middle East
It’s…the first thing is that unless the United States demonstrates escalation control here and dominance, Trump isn’t a paper tiger he’s reduced to a level he can’t bear and that would encourage even more violence but even more loss. Second on the Iranian side there’s only one way to understand what they’re doing not withstanding all the confusion. And all Americans know it it’s
called rope a dope, rope a doe, the tactic of one of the greatest of all Americans Muhammad Ali used to fight by having his body against the ropes allowing the elasticity of the ropes to allow him to withstand massive amounts of punching by his enemy until his enemy got tired. When his enemy got tired watch what Muhammad Ali does it’s a beautiful brilliant display of counterviolence and he simply tears the adversary apart, having opened up um the vulnerability of exhaustion.
Now exhaustion is what Israel faces if it can’t continue to supply its anti-aircraft defenses with new missiles and it can’t refuel its missile offenses and it can’t get close enough to the Russian air defense system the S400s and others in Iran. If it can’t get close enough and it runs out of supply and
it’s desperate for US intervention both to resupply Israel and to take on the burden of escalation and attack. if the US doesn’t Iran absirb the punishment for another 7 to 10 14 days, the rope a dope will reverse
A key point is Helmer’s sources say that Trump has been briefed that Iran has air defense strike capacity in reserve. Yet the Israelis are now so needy and so many in the military-intel space are incapable of believing that any foreign power can contest the US that they are very likely to dismiss this information as inconsequential to battle plans.
So what happens if the US sends fighter jets and bombers into Iranian air space and Iran downs a decent number of them, or say even worse, most? What happens next?
By Jake Johnson, staff writer at Common Dreams. Originally published at Common Dreams
President Donald Trump is set to meet with top advisers in the White House Situation Room Thursday morning in the wake of reports that he has privately approved plans for a U.S. attack on Iran, a development that comes after days of pressure from Israeli officials and Republican war hawks in Congress to intervene in the war that Israel launched last week.
The Wall Street Journal reported late Wednesday that Trump told senior aides that he “approved of attack plans for Iran, but was holding off on giving the final order to see if Tehran will abandon its nuclear program.”
“While Trump weighed his decision, the U.S. military continued to move forces to Europe and toward the Middle East, including tanker planes to refuel aircraft in flight, warships capable of shooting down ballistic missiles, an aircraft carrier battle group, and advanced F-22 air-to-air fighters, which flew Wednesday to a base in Britain,” the Journalobserved.
CBS News also reported that Trump “approved attack plans on Iran Tuesday night.”
Trump’s belligerent rhetoric and demand for “unconditional surrender” ahead of a possible U.S. attack have drawn sharp rebukes from Iranian officials, who said Wednesday that the country “does NOT negotiate under duress, shall NOT accept peace under duress, and certainly NOT with a has-been warmonger clinging to relevance.”
The U.S. possesses 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs within striking distance of Iran, and Israel claims it needs such explosives to hit Iran’s heavily entrenched Fordow nuclear site.
“We are the only ones who have the capability to do it, but that doesn’t mean I am going to do it,” Trump told reporters Wednesday.
With a final decision from the president expected at any moment, anti-war members of Congress are moving with urgency to build support for legislative efforts to avert an unauthorized U.S. attack on Iran.
Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), who is co-leading a House war powers resolution with Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), has called on Democrats to unify against U.S. involvement in Israel’s war.
“This is now defining for the Democratic Party,” Khanna toldHuffPost on Wednesday. “Are we going to criticize the offensive weapons for Netanyahu and the blank check? Are we going to stand up with clarity against the strikes on Iran? Are we going to actually be the party of peace, or are we going to be just another party of war?”
Just 37 members of Congress, according to one tally, have backed anti-war resolutions currently before the House and Senate, even as new polling shows that a majority of the American public opposes U.S. military action in Iran.
The two top Democrats in Congress—Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.)—have been mostly quiet this week about the Trump administration’s march to war, and Schumer has declined to back legislation introduced by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) that would bar the president from using federal funds for an unauthorized attack on Iran.
But Schumer was among the top Democratic senators who signed a joint statement Wednesday declaring that “we will not rubberstamp military intervention that puts the United States at risk.”
“Intensifying military actions between Israel and Iran represent a dangerous escalation that risks igniting a broader regional war,” reads the statement. “As President Trump reportedly considers expanding U.S. engagement in the war, we are deeply concerned about a lack of preparation, strategy, and clearly defined objectives, and the enormous risk to Americans and civilians in the region.”
Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) unveiled a war powers resolution earlier this week in the Republican-controlled Senate, but he must wait 10 days before he can force a vote on the measure.
“The Constitution gives Congress the power to declare war,” Kaine wrote in a social media post on Wednesday. “That’s why I filed a resolution to require a debate and vote in Congress before we send our nation’s men and women in uniform into harm’s way.”
Senators are set to receive a classified briefing on Iran from the Trump administration next week—but the president could order a military strike before then.
Politico reported Wednesday that “Trump, who criticized his predecessor for allowing new wars to break out on his watch, is increasingly listening to a small group of Iran hawks who have been pushing to go tougher on Tehran.”
“Trump has become more receptive to arguments by those advocating more military engagement, including Gen. Michael ‘Erik’ Kurilla, who leads Central Command, as well as Republican senators Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Tom Cotton of Arkansas,” the outlet noted.
Can’t find it now but I was reading an article just the other day about Gen. Michael ‘Erik’ Kurilla. He seems to be best buds with the Israelis but one reason that they are pushing for this war is because Kurilla is supposed to be leaving his job in the coming months and the Israelis want ‘their’ general in charge for this war-
Re exhaustion–don’t forget that the Israeli pubic have been spending every night in shelters and stair wells.
and
Re pressure–it increasingly seems possible if not likely that war with Iran was the plan all along and things just aren’t going the way that they expected. Recall during the Signal chat Vance objected that going after Yemen wasn’t ‘part of the plan.’ But he was fine with blowing up an apartment building.
Has the entire Trump presidency been a con that instead of what was promised will bring us inflation at home and war abroad? Stay tuned…..
TRK, I always appreciate your spot on comments! Nima’s video with Col. Laurence Wilkerson yesterday is very enlightening, and Wilkerson talks at length about Gen. Kurilla and Centcom:
First, even if Iran were to be “holding back”, they simply do not possess the kind of long-range air defense and radar systems to compare with, say, the Russians. They have “some” amount of S-300s or their domestically developed equivalents, some of them recently upgraded to effectively be S-300+. These are fine for what they are, but a) do not have the range to reach much beyond Iran’s geographic borders; b) are not very many in number; and c) would have to play hide and seek with American anti-radar missiles.
As well, I am not sure what sort of long-range radar systems Iran still has operational – again, ones that can reach beyond its borders – and their AWACs force seems pretty weak.
With that in mind, if I were planning any American strikes, I’d just have my air groups sit 100-200 kilometers outside of Iran’s borders, covered by EW and anti-radar escorts, just in case, and lob long-ranged missiles into the place. Basically some version of how the Russian air force has been operating after the first few months in 2022, I mean the whole glide-bomb thing was developed in part so that they wouldn’t have to come closer than a few dozen kilometers of their side of the line of contact. And I doubt the Iranians could do much about that.
You will notice that Israeli aircraft, at least according to Russian and Iranian news sources, have basically approached Iran’s borders (maybe flown a few miles in), launched their ordnance, and backed off immediately. All of the stuff inside Iran is either aircraft-type drones, launched from, err, the complete emptiness of space and not at all prepared bases in Azerbaijan or Iraqi Kurdistan or wherever, or FPV drones and ATGMs set up literally within a few miles of their targets. Yes, I know the Iranians claim to have shot down a bunch of F-16s and F-35s, but I’ve yet to see any physical proof of said, even from the gung-ho Pars Today.
Back to standoff attacks, this is where air-launched cruise missiles like Storm Shadow/Scalp and Taurus would be most useful. Remember, it took the Russians some time to adapt their, better, systems to intercepting these, in part because they are so fast – in and out of the covered sector of a Tor or a Pantsyr system in literally 5-6-7 seconds. So you have to set up layered networked defenses to pass targets to one another, and train the operators to mash that button in record time. I have no idea whether the Iranians have had the practice.
On the other hand, Iran has been investing quite a bit into short- and medium-ranged air defenses, at least so far as I can tell without learning how to read Persian. As well, if I had a limited number of S-300s or their equivalents, I would not sit most of them at the border looking out, I’d sit most of them near a few key facilities on the inside. So when we get to the part where B-2 bombers are supposed to fly directly over Natanz to drop their bunker busters, I have no idea what will happen. Maybe the B-2s are stealthy enough to beat Iranian air defenses; maybe they are not; maybe the strike will be timed to coincide with a massive drone attack, so that the local air defenses are overwhelmed, which is what I would do. We have literally never tested the concept of flying a low-observable bomber directly over a protected area, and I do not count the two wars against Iraq, since Iraqi air defenses were a) pitiful and b) quickly neutralized. And that one F-117 shot down in Serbia, that was more of an ambush to take advantage of lackadaisical mission planning than anything else.
It would be fun to test such a concept, not the least since the whole sales pitch for the B-25 is its alleged ability to fly over (!) northwestern China and then come back. But that’s another story.
Bottom line, I can totally see scenarios where the US, provided some sane and careful planning is done, avoids any aircraft losses at all while pounding surface-level targets across Iran. It will do nothing to Natanz, but that’s never been the point. The point has been to inflict pain on the soft fleshy parts, if you will, to – hypothetically – either force the Iranians to unconditionally capitulate, or to destabilize the regime enough to install your own puppet. I say hypothetically, because I am yet to see any strategic bombing campaign, at any time in history, that has achieved this, and remember that Serbia capitulated not because of the bombs, but because a pliant Russian government threatened to cut off its natural gas. As I dimly recall the events of over a quarter century ago. But that’s the theory, at least…
…as to Iran’s options, none of them are really good ones, other than to grin and bear it. Yes, you can hit American bases in the area, but if I were the Americans, I’d already be pulling personnel and equipment out of those (and in at least one case, this appears to have actually happened). Yes, you can close the Straits, but I might actually NOT do this, because some proportion – I am not sure how much – of Iranian oil still goes out by tanker. Sinking an American carrier would be nice, if American admirals were so stupid as to actually bring one close in. But that’s really a gesture. Outlast the Americans, not give them a quick victory, and keep striking at targets of opportunity (and Israel), and then hope that TACO will TACO, as he had just done in Yemen? I guess…
Alastair Crooke claimed from sources that the previous Israeli attack months ago was stopped when their planes were painted by a new Iranian developed over the horizon radar–stopped outside Iranian airspace. If Simplicius is right then that is evidence that Crooke was also right.
They [GBU-57 “bunker-buster”]can be lobbed towards the target, from what distance I know not. This was a commonly practiced scenario for bomber crews during Cold War. As far as I can tell, the B2 is the only aircraft we have that is capable of doing this.*
*It is not far-fetched to imagine deployment from a C130 or C17, but allowances would need to be made for configuration and extraction, and both would make for big, slow targets.
In other words, unless if i’m reading you wrong, this will all be a cakewalk and the Americans will hardly break a sweat. I bet the Israelis were this confident going in, but war never quite goes the way the planners, in their zeal to strike the enemy, convince themselves it will go. Sure Israel isn’t America but Iran isn’t Iraq either. You make no mention of the implications of a wider regional war that sets the Middle East on fire. I don’t claim to know how things will pan out if the US joins this war in an offensive capacity and the dominos start falling in all sorts of unpredictable directions, I suspect very much that despite what is clearly impressive technical know how on weapon systems and tactical formations on your part, you don’t either.
no, he is giving a reasonable, realistic, best-case scenario in which a nominally “rational” POTUS can attack but (relatively) minimize another round of escalation.
Trump and Kurilla are the wild cards.
good think the media and Dems. relentlessly mocked TACO all June and May. surely tump has nothing to prove
I don’t think Russia and China can afford a defeated Iran. If the US attacks Iran things might get very interesting. Russia and China’s presidents tend to be cautious, so I don’t expect them to join the battle immediately. If Iran can hold its own they will stand pat, but if it looks like Iran will fall both Russia and China may intervene in some manner militarily.
Mr. Putin just said in a meeting with foreign correspondents that Russia is not giving S-400 system to Iran because Iran has not asked for any. I assume the message here is that Russia is ready to give material help to Iran if and when Iran needs and asks for any such help.
But for now Russia is providing diplomatic support as agreed between the two countries.
i expect R and C(especially C) to engage really, really asymmetrically…and im leaning towards what others have said on various threads…economically.
they could cut usa off from so many things that we cant make any more, and cant really get anywhere else.
and that would have a certain delicious symmetry to it…that the very same bunch who sent the plant to china(so they wouldnt hafta pay americans) are the same ones instigating this global war now that their earlier decisions have come back to haunt them.
as i said the other day, my nearest walmart appears to be out of clothing,lol…and arent expecting resupply, because they removed all the racks and shelves, etc from that whole area.
i also wonder how many R and C subs are lurking off the coasts of USA, right now.
and one totally accidental exoatmos EMP above CONUS, and thats it…we’re in 1912.
i am the only person i know in real life who could(and has, and sometimes does) live like that.
The Iran hawks do not have a reverse gear, as Mercouris says. If the initial US bombing campaign proves ineffective and/or results in significant American losses, the US will eventually either have to escalate to tactical nuclear attacks or withdraw, as they are not positioned logistically for a deployment longer than a couple weeks.
What is the longest range of this air delivered missiles? Up to 500 km? So 500-200 is 300km inside Iran. How far a reach is that? Are there many objectives in reach? Not Teheran.
Include in Iran’s air defenses the Pakistani Chinese made J series of air interceptors. The results from the recent dust up between Pakistan and India over Kashmir showed the J’s as having excellent capabilities. As far back as the 1980s, Japan squeezed a phased array radar into the nose cone of some of their air interceptors. Those radars were able to “paint” ‘stealth’ aircraft. Surely the Chinese can do the same. I would say that true “stealth” technology is a chimera.
See: https://english.almayadeen.net/articles/analysis/iran-and-pakistan-are-stepping-up-their-military-cooperation
Another question here is the extent to which Russia will share their best anti-air technology with Iran in the near future, if not at once.
Add to all this the possibility that if England enters the fray on the side of Israel, Iran could “degrade” the UKs airfields on Cyprus. Then where could the Israeli jets escape to when Israel’s military airfields are disabled? Incirlik in Turkey? I can well imagine Turkey declaring neutrality and impounding any Israeli air assets that land at Turkish airfields in extremis. That would truly be a “Game Over” moment for Israel.
Finally, as noted elsewhere in this thread, were Iran to blow up the Israeli desalination plants, the country would very soon become unlivable for a large part of its population.
Stay safe.
For over two decades Iran has developed an integrated air defense system, consisting of about 3,600 defense zones in 9 air-defense regions connected to the central command center that unifies the army and revolutionary guard branches.
Each of the defense zones can act independently, even if they are networked even with the civil aviation systems (the IRGC Tor-battery that shot down the Ukrainian passenger plane was not connected to the central network).
Iran has multiple static and mobile radar stations operating at multiple frequencies and connected trough the air-defense regions to the central air-defense network. 7 of them are supposed to be Russian Resonance-NE radars with 1,200 km range. Iran is also manufacturing domestic mobile C&C nodes especially for air-defense to connect any AA battery, section or division into the nation-wide network.
All that said, Iran is a big country, so it’s practically impossible to defend every direction and every place. Even now the Ukrainians manage to stuff trough the Russian defenses, even though they can only hit from predictable directions. Also, Iranian missiles are obviously getting trough the layered and very concentrated Israeli air-defenses 40-60% of the time.
In my mind the simple truth is that Iran still has strategic depth to learn the ropes (like Russia has) of good air-defense, while Israel hardly does – it’s running out of domestic interceptors and can’t soak up as many hits.
Oh, come on. So now we are at another “American loses its innocence” moment. One million dead in Project Ukraine, mainly Ukrainian soldiers. A minimum of 200,000 dead in Gaza — I will no longer accept that figleaf estimate of oh, it’s only 40,000. Must not be a genocide. Thousands dead and arrested on the West Bank — no one is keeping count.
And the party of Hillary Clinton, Kamala Harris, and the egregious Tammy Duckworth, who is so stupid that she had two feet shot out from under her in Iraq, is now disabled, and supports every war imaginable, is seeking moral authority? What moral authority?
To wit:
“This is now defining for the Democratic Party,” Khanna told HuffPost on Wednesday. “Are we going to criticize the offensive weapons for Netanyahu and the blank check? Are we going to stand up with clarity against the strikes on Iran? Are we going to actually be the party of peace, or are we going to be just another party of war?”
Please. This is the party that hates its own base, that is corrupt down to its liberal underpants, and hasn’t delivered on any concrete material benefits for the populace in years.
The future is very murky, and the US of A is relying on crackpots and moral zeroes like Starmer, Merz, Zelensky, and Kaja Kallas.
Yet I also recall the oracle of Delphi: A great empire will fall.
Ro Khanna is a perfect representative of the American people. As a whole, the American public is “all hat, no cattle”. There is no fight in the American people. None whatsoever. Look how the vast majority are pushed around and shoved around, with nary a peep and certainly not anything that would directly threaten the powers that be.
Remember that one of the empires in the Delphic Oracle was Persia–y’know, the one that didn’t fall–and the other empire, the one that fell, was ruled by a billionaire?
As is typical, the D faction in Congress display full-blown hypocrisy and cynical manipulation of public opinion. They must appear to oppose this to mobilize the disgruntled D “base” in order to get a “blue wave” in the midterms.
Almost to a person, they have voted to support Israel, fund Israel, and arm Israel (in flagrant violation of the AECA and other legislation). They vote to expand DoD budgets and additional military appropriation bills. Most voted to (illegally) arm Ukraine. Almost all of the Congress critters in both houses, in both “parties” fully support genocide. As Rob Urie noted yesterday, there is no electoral solution to oligarchy and institutional corruption. Congress, as an institution could be considered a criminal organization.
Plus, sometime in the future, historians will note that it was somewhere between W and Trump 2 that America passed from a functional republic to an empire. DOGE could save some serious coin firing the whole Legislative branch, and turning the Capitol and legislative buildings into a tourist attraction. But the National Park Service will have to modify some of the displays:
That is more interesting news, we”ll have to see if China and Russia will come to the aid of Iran in a more significant way.
Depending on definitions, we could say the US has been an empire for well over 100 years, since the “Spanish American” war.. In an abstract way, the US was an imperial project from the very beginning, an offspring of the British Empire. Now we can say it is the dying Anglo-American empire
The US is not a “res publica” but rather a “res privatae”
It is run by a private oligarchy. The public have little say in the matter. With the last few US regimes, it should be obvious.
Especially since the AUMF and the Patriot Act, and the whole “War on Terror”, Congress has been acceding it’s role to the Executive branch to the point now where Trump just ignores it. By what authority granted to the President by Congress is America going to war in Iran?
[Replying to JonnyJames
June 19, 2025 at 11:02 am]
Indeed, V.I. Lenin called the American intervention in Cuba’s Independence War (second of such wars initiated by Cubans who were fighting for independence from Spain, in the 19 century) the “first imperialist war” of modern capitalism. The American 1898 intervention in Cuba, by the way, also known as the Spanish-Cuban-American war and fully supported and encouraged by some of the most prominent US press at the time, is at the root of all the friction, disagreements, and historically problematic relationship between Cuba and the USA, an animosity that is still well and alive today.
I’ve already started to think about what the world might look like with the US and Israel defeated militarily, diplomatically, economically, etc., which seems to be the likely outcome here.
It feels like it would be a much more peaceful world, but at what price.
I think that is very premature. The US retains the most powerful Air Force / Navy in the world by a large margin, and is capable of inflicting significantly more damage on Iran than Israel. If US involvement was *always* in the works, moreover, (and I think it was), the US will already have planned a guerilla insurgency timed to coincide with their air campaign. I assume the MEK and Sunni Mercenary sleeper cells are being prepped as we speak. The aim will be to cause as much damage and chaos and death among the Iranian populace as quickly as possible. Iran *might* withstand such a campaign, but it might not—especially if the US decides to escalate to tactical nuclear attacks.
Can the Iranians inflict enough damage upon Israeli and American assets and personnel quickly enough to deter the Americans from further escalation and push them to declare a “symbolic” victory while deescalating behind the scenes? I think that is the Iranians only way out.
The initial attack on Iran was coordinated with the Americans and very likely CIA was involved. So all the activation of MEK cells has likely been exhausted already. There isn’t another wave of inside moves, this time better coordinated by the US. What we have seen was likely the combined effort.
As for the far superior US Air Forces and Navy, compared with Israel, do you think who has superior forces, Iran or Yemen?
Look, obviously Iran. But we didn’t put the weight of two carrier strike groups, hundreds of fighters, and the full bombing arsenal against Yemen. We are logistically positioned for 1-2 weeks of constant aerial assault. I just think it is naive to believe that we cannot do real damage to Iranian population centers and military structures.
“We”, of course, is not we as a nation, but a select group of elites who believe they will only be affected tangentially by war with Iran. Unfortunately, any attack on Iran is going to motivate Russia and China to participate. It is going to disrupt commerce around the world and likely impact North America ($10/gal gasoline?).
Soon enough warlords will emerge across the USA to manage the chaos. What’s not to like.
In this case, what good is doing damage, even real damage, to Iranian population centers and military structures?
US power was in the ominous threat of using and wielding its power. If in using and wielding it the US demonstrates incapacity, what is currently happening with Ukraine and will happen in Iran, then that power is no longer. World belief in that power, real or imagined, was necessary to sustain it.
“We are logistically positioned for 1-2 weeks of constant aerial assault”.
Some people can take more than 1-2 weeks of aerial assaults. The US is not equipped for long attritional warfare, materially and psychologically. Especially not when the target can hit back.
What I wonder is 1) how much US can do without additional “staging,” that is, without sending large stocks of supplies to support all those airplanes, 2) Even if CentCom has all those stuff, can they be readily used? The Gulf Arabs will have isdues with US military using bades in their soil freely to attack Iran–especially since that means Iran will do something about their oil exports (close the Hormuz, attack terminals?) If US just overruled the sheikhs and kept flyong out airplanes, medium to long term political damage will be wvem bigger than it alreasy is.
Vietnam was a school, no one passed the final exam.
US had air superiority over the whole region! Bomb anywhere we wanted took some losses, but acceptable. US lost that war.
Bombing effect are spectacular and make good tv! They did not contribute to strategic goals.
US will have no more success against Iran than it did to the Houthi.
For US and Israel Iran is a huge tar baby that will absorb all their jabs and not be slowed.
I have not heard anyone talking about sending USAF USMC fighters into the mountains hunting TELs a plan more dangerous and less likely to work than penetrators.
Others of us are old enough to remember that war and you are so very right. Trump the new Lyndon? Kurilla the new Westmoreland? Pacification and body counts ahead?
Even the Israeli/Trump dream of killing the Supreme Leader won’t stop this. Trump probably figures he can somehow declare victory and leave. He’s a boob.
Lyndon Johnson, revealing that he’d concealed his true political agenda from all his fellow senators in the South for his entire political and that he intended to pass the Civil Rights Act of 1964 despite the loss of their support, responded: “What’s the presidency for?”
So, quite likely,, he went along with escalation in Vietnam as part of that. The world is what it is, and Corbyn and Sanders types achieve nothing. Conversely, very occasionally some presumed political hack who spent decades concealing their true agenda so as to be judged a ‘safe set of hands’ and achieve power, may then have a chance of changing things. The CIA and MI6 both vetted and approved of Putin’s ascent as Yeltsin’s heir, for instance.
As for Trump, by contrast, you can say only say he is indeed a self-made man if the saying is true that God doesn’t make trash.
Iran hits the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange because they want the rich to suffer, not the ordinary people. Hopefully they do this to the US and EU too.
Something to learn for all real left-wing warriors out there.
Now would be a good time for soldiers to collectively refuse to follow an attack order. But that won’t happen. And we’ll get the usual media coverage of bombs dropping and buildings exploding with patriotic bunting surrounding the anchor person’s desk. I keep searching for news headlines that describe this (accurately) as “Israel’s unprovoked attack on Iran” but, gee, nowhere to be found!
The only constitutional purpose for a declaration of war is a threat to the United States. That baby got thrown out with the bathwater 75 years ago in Korea. Iran poses no threat to the U.S. but American presidents have been murdering foreigners by the millions for years now. A racist like Trump doesn’t even see Persians as human.
There are many moving pieces. Yesterday Pakistan’s army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir dropped by the White House to dine with El Caudillo, an unprecedented meeting. India’s PM Modi declined a similar invitation after the G7 meeting in Canada last week. The civilian government of Pakistan has recently been cozying up to Iran and speaking-out against the unprovoked Israeli attack, but the country is in effect a military dictatorship.
Blogger Ian Welsh and UK-based Policy-Wire are claiming that the Mossad’s infiltration of Iran has been facilitated by the Indian Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) — the Indian CIA — relying on the rabidly anti-Muslim BJP government of India and the thousands of Indian tech workers and students who have been allowed to work and study in Iran for over a decade.
Of course the Pakistanis have nukes but lack good ways of delivering them; the Iranians have hyper-sonic missiles but no nukes. Iran and Pakistan also have a long land border. The recent conflict in Kashmir may be pushing the Pakistani civilian government into the Iranian camp but the Pakistani Army has a long and sordid history of being bought-off by the Americans. The question will be whether the right people are being bribed.
I wondered about the Pakistani general’s visit. Has anyone been commenting on what the story might be? I just saw it mentioned briefly on AJ and nowhere else (but I wasn’t watching too carefully).
David in French Harbor: the Pakistanis have nukes but lack good ways of delivering them; the Iranians have hyper-sonic missiles but no nukes.
Nukes are not some generic weapons class. Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is widely believed to consist exclusively of some 170 A-bombs — fission bombs — which is to say, versions of the same technology, however further advanced, that the US used on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Conversely, no credible public evidence exists that Pakistan has successfully developed or tested modern thermonuclear weapons (fusion-boosted aka hydrogen/H-bombs). These enable much greater variation in the design, type, yield, and — what’s relevant here — physical size of the device. Only with the appearance of thermonuclear weapons could warheads be sufficiently ‘miniaturized’ to be placed on the then-new ICBMs in the latter 1950s.
So Pakistan’s nukes are A-bombs which are big enough they must likely be delivered from sufficiently large aircraft or — conceivably in 2025, I suppose — large drones. Therefore, your hypothetical Axis of Resistance synergy of Pakistani A-bombs with Iranian hypersonic missiles is almost certainly not remotely feasible in reality.
I think it likely that the U.S. will strike Fordow and claim that it has destroyed the centrifuges. It will then call off the Israeli attacks, and Netanyahu will declare victory. The non-existent Iranian nuclear bomb program will cease to exist, and Iran will resume building missiles to prepare for the next war. This is the way Trump declared success in his campaign against the Houthis. Absent the internal collapse of Iran’s regime, the U.S. can’t defeat Iran.
The problem is that this would not be a victory for Israel – Indeed it would be a loss, since that was already an option (since almost a decade in fact), meanwhile this war has shattered the Israeli sense of invulnerability. As long as the Iranian regime remains in power, that will remain the case.
Netanyahu has no option to back down, and no interest in doing so – There won’t be another bite of the nuclear apple.
Caesar also punished Pompey’s murderers: if you mess with Romans, even Caesar’s enemies, you are still dissing Rome and you will pay. I think, without that, he could never have become the Roman leader. Our so-called leaders, otoh, eagerly call on foreigners to do their dirty job, includibg against donestic foes. That’s bo way ti build an empire.
MIT Prof Ted Postol speaking with Lt. Col. Daniel Davis deflates the GBU-57 bunker buster myth. Postal: “bunker busters are likely to have very low rates of success”.
The deep bunker of Iran’s Fordow facility is reportedly 800 meters below the surface– or 2600 feet. With maximum of 200 feet penetration by GBU-57, that leaves 2400 feet of rock and subsoil to absorb the blast, plus the structure of the bunker ceiling is likely designed to resist a massive blast. So why would the USAF risk the shoot down of a precious B-2, and consequent PR disaster?
If they have information about location and depth of access tunnels, they might be able to temporarily cut off the deep galleries from the surface by collapsing those.
It might be enough to declare “mission accomplished”, at least with respect to that site.
stickNmud: …the GBU-57 bunker buster myth. Postal: “bunker busters are likely to have very low rates of success”.
Thank you.
Samuel Conner: ...if they have information about location and depth of access tunnels, they might be able to temporarily cut off the deep galleries from the surface by collapsing those. It might be enough to declare “mission accomplished”
It seems improbable that the Iranians won’t have built with precisely this possibility in mind, so their preparations will include, forex tunnels — underground roadways — opening on the surface many miles away.
Exiled Thucydides knew
All that a speech can say
About Democracy,
And what dictators do,
The elderly rubbish they talk
To an apathetic grave;
Analysed all in his book,
The enlightenment driven away,
The habit-forming pain,
Mismanagement and grief:
We must suffer them all again.
Temporary delay (two weeks?), but can this ultimatum be met?
White House says deal with Iran must include “no enrichment of uranium”
From CNN’s Alejandra Jaramillo
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said today that a deal with Iran must include “no enrichment of a uranium.”
She reiterated President Donald Trump’s stance that Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon.
Leavitt’s comments about a deal came after she announced in the White House briefing room that Trump would decide whether to launch a strike on Iran within the next two weeks, because he felt there was a “substantial chance of negotiations.”
Within the next two weeks could mean tomorrow, or in two weeks, or anywhere in between.
Meanwhile Israel wants Iran’s ballistic missile program terminated, so it seems the strikes will continue regardless of what Trump does.
That’s all for show and typical Trump bluster. Trump knows that Iran will not accept “zero enrichment” so making that the heart of his “deal” is a non-starter from the get go. He knows this. He says what he says for domestic consumption. The only real reason Trump may delay attacking Iran is because he fears things may go very badly and so he is likely requesting strong assurances from the Pentagon that things will go “very well”.
Israel is pushing for both no enrichment and no missiles, primarily to scupper the agreement.
I can’t believe even they think Iran would agree (particularly the missiles).
Boxing is a science, and not just a couple of meatheads pounding the crap out of each other in a ring. In meathead vs thinker, a thinker in reasonable condition will most always prevail.
Ali, god bless the man (and Foreman too– good man), was an expert in the ring and out-thought a stronger and more brutal Foreman in this legendary bout: https://youtu.be/nCOvjkbEn3c?si=YTaSLEtu10g6hC5B
So when we’re talking “rope-a-dope” as strategy, that 5-minute video will help to provide context (and I don’t disagree with the analogy– it fits).
Can’t find it now but I was reading an article just the other day about Gen. Michael ‘Erik’ Kurilla. He seems to be best buds with the Israelis but one reason that they are pushing for this war is because Kurilla is supposed to be leaving his job in the coming months and the Israelis want ‘their’ general in charge for this war-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Kurilla
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/kurilla-israel-iran/
Re exhaustion–don’t forget that the Israeli pubic have been spending every night in shelters and stair wells.
and
Re pressure–it increasingly seems possible if not likely that war with Iran was the plan all along and things just aren’t going the way that they expected. Recall during the Signal chat Vance objected that going after Yemen wasn’t ‘part of the plan.’ But he was fine with blowing up an apartment building.
Has the entire Trump presidency been a con that instead of what was promised will bring us inflation at home and war abroad? Stay tuned…..
it is a reasonable hypotbesis that Kurilla isan American maximalist (who will get trapped by the sunk cost fallacy)
Not good news if you are a America First circumspect realist.
TRK, I always appreciate your spot on comments! Nima’s video with Col. Laurence Wilkerson yesterday is very enlightening, and Wilkerson talks at length about Gen. Kurilla and Centcom:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yiYieN38leo&t=3117s
So unpacking the Iranian air defense issue.
First, even if Iran were to be “holding back”, they simply do not possess the kind of long-range air defense and radar systems to compare with, say, the Russians. They have “some” amount of S-300s or their domestically developed equivalents, some of them recently upgraded to effectively be S-300+. These are fine for what they are, but a) do not have the range to reach much beyond Iran’s geographic borders; b) are not very many in number; and c) would have to play hide and seek with American anti-radar missiles.
As well, I am not sure what sort of long-range radar systems Iran still has operational – again, ones that can reach beyond its borders – and their AWACs force seems pretty weak.
With that in mind, if I were planning any American strikes, I’d just have my air groups sit 100-200 kilometers outside of Iran’s borders, covered by EW and anti-radar escorts, just in case, and lob long-ranged missiles into the place. Basically some version of how the Russian air force has been operating after the first few months in 2022, I mean the whole glide-bomb thing was developed in part so that they wouldn’t have to come closer than a few dozen kilometers of their side of the line of contact. And I doubt the Iranians could do much about that.
You will notice that Israeli aircraft, at least according to Russian and Iranian news sources, have basically approached Iran’s borders (maybe flown a few miles in), launched their ordnance, and backed off immediately. All of the stuff inside Iran is either aircraft-type drones, launched from, err, the complete emptiness of space and not at all prepared bases in Azerbaijan or Iraqi Kurdistan or wherever, or FPV drones and ATGMs set up literally within a few miles of their targets. Yes, I know the Iranians claim to have shot down a bunch of F-16s and F-35s, but I’ve yet to see any physical proof of said, even from the gung-ho Pars Today.
Back to standoff attacks, this is where air-launched cruise missiles like Storm Shadow/Scalp and Taurus would be most useful. Remember, it took the Russians some time to adapt their, better, systems to intercepting these, in part because they are so fast – in and out of the covered sector of a Tor or a Pantsyr system in literally 5-6-7 seconds. So you have to set up layered networked defenses to pass targets to one another, and train the operators to mash that button in record time. I have no idea whether the Iranians have had the practice.
On the other hand, Iran has been investing quite a bit into short- and medium-ranged air defenses, at least so far as I can tell without learning how to read Persian. As well, if I had a limited number of S-300s or their equivalents, I would not sit most of them at the border looking out, I’d sit most of them near a few key facilities on the inside. So when we get to the part where B-2 bombers are supposed to fly directly over Natanz to drop their bunker busters, I have no idea what will happen. Maybe the B-2s are stealthy enough to beat Iranian air defenses; maybe they are not; maybe the strike will be timed to coincide with a massive drone attack, so that the local air defenses are overwhelmed, which is what I would do. We have literally never tested the concept of flying a low-observable bomber directly over a protected area, and I do not count the two wars against Iraq, since Iraqi air defenses were a) pitiful and b) quickly neutralized. And that one F-117 shot down in Serbia, that was more of an ambush to take advantage of lackadaisical mission planning than anything else.
It would be fun to test such a concept, not the least since the whole sales pitch for the B-25 is its alleged ability to fly over (!) northwestern China and then come back. But that’s another story.
Bottom line, I can totally see scenarios where the US, provided some sane and careful planning is done, avoids any aircraft losses at all while pounding surface-level targets across Iran. It will do nothing to Natanz, but that’s never been the point. The point has been to inflict pain on the soft fleshy parts, if you will, to – hypothetically – either force the Iranians to unconditionally capitulate, or to destabilize the regime enough to install your own puppet. I say hypothetically, because I am yet to see any strategic bombing campaign, at any time in history, that has achieved this, and remember that Serbia capitulated not because of the bombs, but because a pliant Russian government threatened to cut off its natural gas. As I dimly recall the events of over a quarter century ago. But that’s the theory, at least…
…as to Iran’s options, none of them are really good ones, other than to grin and bear it. Yes, you can hit American bases in the area, but if I were the Americans, I’d already be pulling personnel and equipment out of those (and in at least one case, this appears to have actually happened). Yes, you can close the Straits, but I might actually NOT do this, because some proportion – I am not sure how much – of Iranian oil still goes out by tanker. Sinking an American carrier would be nice, if American admirals were so stupid as to actually bring one close in. But that’s really a gesture. Outlast the Americans, not give them a quick victory, and keep striking at targets of opportunity (and Israel), and then hope that TACO will TACO, as he had just done in Yemen? I guess…
Iran can make it interesting by taking out the 8 desalination plants.
As well as Israel’s electricity supply.
Don’t forget the Dimona nuclear complex down in the Negev. Plus, wherever Israel stores most of its atomic warheads.
Alastair Crooke claimed from sources that the previous Israeli attack months ago was stopped when their planes were painted by a new Iranian developed over the horizon radar–stopped outside Iranian airspace. If Simplicius is right then that is evidence that Crooke was also right.
How far can a 30,000 lb ‘bunker buster’ glide?
I’m guessing not too far.
They have to be dropped right over the target.
10-20 km
They [GBU-57 “bunker-buster”]can be lobbed towards the target, from what distance I know not. This was a commonly practiced scenario for bomber crews during Cold War. As far as I can tell, the B2 is the only aircraft we have that is capable of doing this.*
*It is not far-fetched to imagine deployment from a C130 or C17, but allowances would need to be made for configuration and extraction, and both would make for big, slow targets.
In other words, unless if i’m reading you wrong, this will all be a cakewalk and the Americans will hardly break a sweat. I bet the Israelis were this confident going in, but war never quite goes the way the planners, in their zeal to strike the enemy, convince themselves it will go. Sure Israel isn’t America but Iran isn’t Iraq either. You make no mention of the implications of a wider regional war that sets the Middle East on fire. I don’t claim to know how things will pan out if the US joins this war in an offensive capacity and the dominos start falling in all sorts of unpredictable directions, I suspect very much that despite what is clearly impressive technical know how on weapon systems and tactical formations on your part, you don’t either.
no, he is giving a reasonable, realistic, best-case scenario in which a nominally “rational” POTUS can attack but (relatively) minimize another round of escalation.
Trump and Kurilla are the wild cards.
good think the media and Dems. relentlessly mocked TACO all June and May. surely tump has nothing to prove
I don’t think Russia and China can afford a defeated Iran. If the US attacks Iran things might get very interesting. Russia and China’s presidents tend to be cautious, so I don’t expect them to join the battle immediately. If Iran can hold its own they will stand pat, but if it looks like Iran will fall both Russia and China may intervene in some manner militarily.
Mr. Putin just said in a meeting with foreign correspondents that Russia is not giving S-400 system to Iran because Iran has not asked for any. I assume the message here is that Russia is ready to give material help to Iran if and when Iran needs and asks for any such help.
But for now Russia is providing diplomatic support as agreed between the two countries.
i expect R and C(especially C) to engage really, really asymmetrically…and im leaning towards what others have said on various threads…economically.
they could cut usa off from so many things that we cant make any more, and cant really get anywhere else.
and that would have a certain delicious symmetry to it…that the very same bunch who sent the plant to china(so they wouldnt hafta pay americans) are the same ones instigating this global war now that their earlier decisions have come back to haunt them.
as i said the other day, my nearest walmart appears to be out of clothing,lol…and arent expecting resupply, because they removed all the racks and shelves, etc from that whole area.
i also wonder how many R and C subs are lurking off the coasts of USA, right now.
and one totally accidental exoatmos EMP above CONUS, and thats it…we’re in 1912.
i am the only person i know in real life who could(and has, and sometimes does) live like that.
The Iran hawks do not have a reverse gear, as Mercouris says. If the initial US bombing campaign proves ineffective and/or results in significant American losses, the US will eventually either have to escalate to tactical nuclear attacks or withdraw, as they are not positioned logistically for a deployment longer than a couple weeks.
What is the longest range of this air delivered missiles? Up to 500 km? So 500-200 is 300km inside Iran. How far a reach is that? Are there many objectives in reach? Not Teheran.
“sane and careful planning” would rule out an attack on Iran altogether.
Include in Iran’s air defenses the Pakistani Chinese made J series of air interceptors. The results from the recent dust up between Pakistan and India over Kashmir showed the J’s as having excellent capabilities. As far back as the 1980s, Japan squeezed a phased array radar into the nose cone of some of their air interceptors. Those radars were able to “paint” ‘stealth’ aircraft. Surely the Chinese can do the same. I would say that true “stealth” technology is a chimera.
See: https://english.almayadeen.net/articles/analysis/iran-and-pakistan-are-stepping-up-their-military-cooperation
Another question here is the extent to which Russia will share their best anti-air technology with Iran in the near future, if not at once.
Add to all this the possibility that if England enters the fray on the side of Israel, Iran could “degrade” the UKs airfields on Cyprus. Then where could the Israeli jets escape to when Israel’s military airfields are disabled? Incirlik in Turkey? I can well imagine Turkey declaring neutrality and impounding any Israeli air assets that land at Turkish airfields in extremis. That would truly be a “Game Over” moment for Israel.
Finally, as noted elsewhere in this thread, were Iran to blow up the Israeli desalination plants, the country would very soon become unlivable for a large part of its population.
Stay safe.
For over two decades Iran has developed an integrated air defense system, consisting of about 3,600 defense zones in 9 air-defense regions connected to the central command center that unifies the army and revolutionary guard branches.
Each of the defense zones can act independently, even if they are networked even with the civil aviation systems (the IRGC Tor-battery that shot down the Ukrainian passenger plane was not connected to the central network).
Iran has multiple static and mobile radar stations operating at multiple frequencies and connected trough the air-defense regions to the central air-defense network. 7 of them are supposed to be Russian Resonance-NE radars with 1,200 km range. Iran is also manufacturing domestic mobile C&C nodes especially for air-defense to connect any AA battery, section or division into the nation-wide network.
All that said, Iran is a big country, so it’s practically impossible to defend every direction and every place. Even now the Ukrainians manage to stuff trough the Russian defenses, even though they can only hit from predictable directions. Also, Iranian missiles are obviously getting trough the layered and very concentrated Israeli air-defenses 40-60% of the time.
In my mind the simple truth is that Iran still has strategic depth to learn the ropes (like Russia has) of good air-defense, while Israel hardly does – it’s running out of domestic interceptors and can’t soak up as many hits.
Oh, come on. So now we are at another “American loses its innocence” moment. One million dead in Project Ukraine, mainly Ukrainian soldiers. A minimum of 200,000 dead in Gaza — I will no longer accept that figleaf estimate of oh, it’s only 40,000. Must not be a genocide. Thousands dead and arrested on the West Bank — no one is keeping count.
And the party of Hillary Clinton, Kamala Harris, and the egregious Tammy Duckworth, who is so stupid that she had two feet shot out from under her in Iraq, is now disabled, and supports every war imaginable, is seeking moral authority? What moral authority?
To wit:
Please. This is the party that hates its own base, that is corrupt down to its liberal underpants, and hasn’t delivered on any concrete material benefits for the populace in years.
The future is very murky, and the US of A is relying on crackpots and moral zeroes like Starmer, Merz, Zelensky, and Kaja Kallas.
Yet I also recall the oracle of Delphi: A great empire will fall.
Yes, more “all hat, no cattle” Ro Khanna, yet another Dem who at best bloviates when it is way too late to stop a runaway freight train.
Ro Khanna is a perfect representative of the American people. As a whole, the American public is “all hat, no cattle”. There is no fight in the American people. None whatsoever. Look how the vast majority are pushed around and shoved around, with nary a peep and certainly not anything that would directly threaten the powers that be.
Remember that one of the empires in the Delphic Oracle was Persia–y’know, the one that didn’t fall–and the other empire, the one that fell, was ruled by a billionaire?
As is typical, the D faction in Congress display full-blown hypocrisy and cynical manipulation of public opinion. They must appear to oppose this to mobilize the disgruntled D “base” in order to get a “blue wave” in the midterms.
Almost to a person, they have voted to support Israel, fund Israel, and arm Israel (in flagrant violation of the AECA and other legislation). They vote to expand DoD budgets and additional military appropriation bills. Most voted to (illegally) arm Ukraine. Almost all of the Congress critters in both houses, in both “parties” fully support genocide. As Rob Urie noted yesterday, there is no electoral solution to oligarchy and institutional corruption. Congress, as an institution could be considered a criminal organization.
One wonders what Russia and China will do. Here’s one thing done:
HISTORIC! First Freight Train From China Wheels Into Iran, Flying In The Face Of American Sanctions
https://www.eurasiantimes.com/first-freight-train-from-china-wheels-into-iran/
Plus, sometime in the future, historians will note that it was somewhere between W and Trump 2 that America passed from a functional republic to an empire. DOGE could save some serious coin firing the whole Legislative branch, and turning the Capitol and legislative buildings into a tourist attraction. But the National Park Service will have to modify some of the displays:
September 17, 1787: A Republic, If You Can Keep It
https://www.nps.gov/articles/000/constitutionalconvention-september17.htm
That is more interesting news, we”ll have to see if China and Russia will come to the aid of Iran in a more significant way.
Depending on definitions, we could say the US has been an empire for well over 100 years, since the “Spanish American” war.. In an abstract way, the US was an imperial project from the very beginning, an offspring of the British Empire. Now we can say it is the dying Anglo-American empire
The US is not a “res publica” but rather a “res privatae”
It is run by a private oligarchy. The public have little say in the matter. With the last few US regimes, it should be obvious.
The Spanish American war was certainly an expansion of empire, but Congress had its part, it declared war:
United States declaration of war on Spain
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_declaration_of_war_on_Spain
Especially since the AUMF and the Patriot Act, and the whole “War on Terror”, Congress has been acceding it’s role to the Executive branch to the point now where Trump just ignores it. By what authority granted to the President by Congress is America going to war in Iran?
[Replying to JonnyJames
June 19, 2025 at 11:02 am]
Indeed, V.I. Lenin called the American intervention in Cuba’s Independence War (second of such wars initiated by Cubans who were fighting for independence from Spain, in the 19 century) the “first imperialist war” of modern capitalism. The American 1898 intervention in Cuba, by the way, also known as the Spanish-Cuban-American war and fully supported and encouraged by some of the most prominent US press at the time, is at the root of all the friction, disagreements, and historically problematic relationship between Cuba and the USA, an animosity that is still well and alive today.
I’ve already started to think about what the world might look like with the US and Israel defeated militarily, diplomatically, economically, etc., which seems to be the likely outcome here.
It feels like it would be a much more peaceful world, but at what price.
I think that is very premature. The US retains the most powerful Air Force / Navy in the world by a large margin, and is capable of inflicting significantly more damage on Iran than Israel. If US involvement was *always* in the works, moreover, (and I think it was), the US will already have planned a guerilla insurgency timed to coincide with their air campaign. I assume the MEK and Sunni Mercenary sleeper cells are being prepped as we speak. The aim will be to cause as much damage and chaos and death among the Iranian populace as quickly as possible. Iran *might* withstand such a campaign, but it might not—especially if the US decides to escalate to tactical nuclear attacks.
Can the Iranians inflict enough damage upon Israeli and American assets and personnel quickly enough to deter the Americans from further escalation and push them to declare a “symbolic” victory while deescalating behind the scenes? I think that is the Iranians only way out.
I agree the US and Israel will resort to all of these. This is what defeat looks like. Especially when they use the nuclear option.
The initial attack on Iran was coordinated with the Americans and very likely CIA was involved. So all the activation of MEK cells has likely been exhausted already. There isn’t another wave of inside moves, this time better coordinated by the US. What we have seen was likely the combined effort.
As for the far superior US Air Forces and Navy, compared with Israel, do you think who has superior forces, Iran or Yemen?
Look, obviously Iran. But we didn’t put the weight of two carrier strike groups, hundreds of fighters, and the full bombing arsenal against Yemen. We are logistically positioned for 1-2 weeks of constant aerial assault. I just think it is naive to believe that we cannot do real damage to Iranian population centers and military structures.
“We”, of course, is not we as a nation, but a select group of elites who believe they will only be affected tangentially by war with Iran. Unfortunately, any attack on Iran is going to motivate Russia and China to participate. It is going to disrupt commerce around the world and likely impact North America ($10/gal gasoline?).
Soon enough warlords will emerge across the USA to manage the chaos. What’s not to like.
In this case, what good is doing damage, even real damage, to Iranian population centers and military structures?
US power was in the ominous threat of using and wielding its power. If in using and wielding it the US demonstrates incapacity, what is currently happening with Ukraine and will happen in Iran, then that power is no longer. World belief in that power, real or imagined, was necessary to sustain it.
The buck truly stops with Trump on this one.
Can we kill a ton of innocents? Well sure.
Can we make a strategic achievement like getting Iran to surrender?
Less clear.
“We are logistically positioned for 1-2 weeks of constant aerial assault”.
Some people can take more than 1-2 weeks of aerial assaults. The US is not equipped for long attritional warfare, materially and psychologically. Especially not when the target can hit back.
What I wonder is 1) how much US can do without additional “staging,” that is, without sending large stocks of supplies to support all those airplanes, 2) Even if CentCom has all those stuff, can they be readily used? The Gulf Arabs will have isdues with US military using bades in their soil freely to attack Iran–especially since that means Iran will do something about their oil exports (close the Hormuz, attack terminals?) If US just overruled the sheikhs and kept flyong out airplanes, medium to long term political damage will be wvem bigger than it alreasy is.
I entered USAF as a lieutenant in 1972.
Vietnam was a school, no one passed the final exam.
US had air superiority over the whole region! Bomb anywhere we wanted took some losses, but acceptable. US lost that war.
Bombing effect are spectacular and make good tv! They did not contribute to strategic goals.
US will have no more success against Iran than it did to the Houthi.
For US and Israel Iran is a huge tar baby that will absorb all their jabs and not be slowed.
I have not heard anyone talking about sending USAF USMC fighters into the mountains hunting TELs a plan more dangerous and less likely to work than penetrators.
Others of us are old enough to remember that war and you are so very right. Trump the new Lyndon? Kurilla the new Westmoreland? Pacification and body counts ahead?
Even the Israeli/Trump dream of killing the Supreme Leader won’t stop this. Trump probably figures he can somehow declare victory and leave. He’s a boob.
Carolinian: Trump the new Lyndon?
Lyndon Johnson, revealing that he’d concealed his true political agenda from all his fellow senators in the South for his entire political and that he intended to pass the Civil Rights Act of 1964 despite the loss of their support, responded: “What’s the presidency for?”
So, quite likely,, he went along with escalation in Vietnam as part of that. The world is what it is, and Corbyn and Sanders types achieve nothing. Conversely, very occasionally some presumed political hack who spent decades concealing their true agenda so as to be judged a ‘safe set of hands’ and achieve power, may then have a chance of changing things. The CIA and MI6 both vetted and approved of Putin’s ascent as Yeltsin’s heir, for instance.
As for Trump, by contrast, you can say only say he is indeed a self-made man if the saying is true that God doesn’t make trash.
This one is beautiful starting at 12:30
Iran hits the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange because they want the rich to suffer, not the ordinary people. Hopefully they do this to the US and EU too.
Something to learn for all real left-wing warriors out there.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KKk2PoHtk4Y
Now would be a good time for soldiers to collectively refuse to follow an attack order. But that won’t happen. And we’ll get the usual media coverage of bombs dropping and buildings exploding with patriotic bunting surrounding the anchor person’s desk. I keep searching for news headlines that describe this (accurately) as “Israel’s unprovoked attack on Iran” but, gee, nowhere to be found!
Russia’s attack on Ukraine was unprovoked. Israel’s attack on Iran was self-defense. Get with the program!!
The only constitutional purpose for a declaration of war is a threat to the United States. That baby got thrown out with the bathwater 75 years ago in Korea. Iran poses no threat to the U.S. but American presidents have been murdering foreigners by the millions for years now. A racist like Trump doesn’t even see Persians as human.
There are many moving pieces. Yesterday Pakistan’s army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir dropped by the White House to dine with El Caudillo, an unprecedented meeting. India’s PM Modi declined a similar invitation after the G7 meeting in Canada last week. The civilian government of Pakistan has recently been cozying up to Iran and speaking-out against the unprovoked Israeli attack, but the country is in effect a military dictatorship.
Blogger Ian Welsh and UK-based Policy-Wire are claiming that the Mossad’s infiltration of Iran has been facilitated by the Indian Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) — the Indian CIA — relying on the rabidly anti-Muslim BJP government of India and the thousands of Indian tech workers and students who have been allowed to work and study in Iran for over a decade.
Of course the Pakistanis have nukes but lack good ways of delivering them; the Iranians have hyper-sonic missiles but no nukes. Iran and Pakistan also have a long land border. The recent conflict in Kashmir may be pushing the Pakistani civilian government into the Iranian camp but the Pakistani Army has a long and sordid history of being bought-off by the Americans. The question will be whether the right people are being bribed.
I wondered about the Pakistani general’s visit. Has anyone been commenting on what the story might be? I just saw it mentioned briefly on AJ and nowhere else (but I wasn’t watching too carefully).
David in French Harbor: the Pakistanis have nukes but lack good ways of delivering them; the Iranians have hyper-sonic missiles but no nukes.
Nukes are not some generic weapons class. Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is widely believed to consist exclusively of some 170 A-bombs — fission bombs — which is to say, versions of the same technology, however further advanced, that the US used on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Conversely, no credible public evidence exists that Pakistan has successfully developed or tested modern thermonuclear weapons (fusion-boosted aka hydrogen/H-bombs). These enable much greater variation in the design, type, yield, and — what’s relevant here — physical size of the device. Only with the appearance of thermonuclear weapons could warheads be sufficiently ‘miniaturized’ to be placed on the then-new ICBMs in the latter 1950s.
So Pakistan’s nukes are A-bombs which are big enough they must likely be delivered from sufficiently large aircraft or — conceivably in 2025, I suppose — large drones. Therefore, your hypothetical Axis of Resistance synergy of Pakistani A-bombs with Iranian hypersonic missiles is almost certainly not remotely feasible in reality.
If there was any question about Trump’s sanity…
Has anyone mentioned to Trump that there won’t be anywhere to play Golf after a Nuclear exchange?
In replacing Biden with Trump we have successfully transitioned from dementia to demented.
I think it likely that the U.S. will strike Fordow and claim that it has destroyed the centrifuges. It will then call off the Israeli attacks, and Netanyahu will declare victory. The non-existent Iranian nuclear bomb program will cease to exist, and Iran will resume building missiles to prepare for the next war. This is the way Trump declared success in his campaign against the Houthis. Absent the internal collapse of Iran’s regime, the U.S. can’t defeat Iran.
I think that’s the best case scenario, so to speak. Israel seems intent on escalating things further, though, that US can’t get away so eadily.
Such “friends” we have…
The problem is that this would not be a victory for Israel – Indeed it would be a loss, since that was already an option (since almost a decade in fact), meanwhile this war has shattered the Israeli sense of invulnerability. As long as the Iranian regime remains in power, that will remain the case.
Netanyahu has no option to back down, and no interest in doing so – There won’t be another bite of the nuclear apple.
So, Hail Trump?
But Caesar conquered Gaul and won a civil war (including from the grave via his adopted son).
The mustachio man also had some victories under the belt…
Caesar also punished Pompey’s murderers: if you mess with Romans, even Caesar’s enemies, you are still dissing Rome and you will pay. I think, without that, he could never have become the Roman leader. Our so-called leaders, otoh, eagerly call on foreigners to do their dirty job, includibg against donestic foes. That’s bo way ti build an empire.
IMO he will bomb Iran sooner than later due to the damage Israel is taking and from what hes saying.
And as if that isn’t scary enough, I guess he really admires Truman and what he did with Japan and ending the war meaning nuclear weapons.
It seams he wants his own war, not ones that Biden started, cue up Iran.
Terrifying beyond comprehension
Bibi orders Trump to put US boots on the ground in Iran. Faster than Biden, Trump jumps up and says: Yes, sir!!
Israel First….MAGA…hah!
MAGA…..Miriam Adelson Governs America
100,000,000 reasons why. A lot before that, too.
Awesome.
MIT Prof Ted Postol speaking with Lt. Col. Daniel Davis deflates the GBU-57 bunker buster myth. Postal: “bunker busters are likely to have very low rates of success”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=TriASB-F5UY
The deep bunker of Iran’s Fordow facility is reportedly 800 meters below the surface– or 2600 feet. With maximum of 200 feet penetration by GBU-57, that leaves 2400 feet of rock and subsoil to absorb the blast, plus the structure of the bunker ceiling is likely designed to resist a massive blast. So why would the USAF risk the shoot down of a precious B-2, and consequent PR disaster?
If they have information about location and depth of access tunnels, they might be able to temporarily cut off the deep galleries from the surface by collapsing those.
It might be enough to declare “mission accomplished”, at least with respect to that site.
stickNmud: …the GBU-57 bunker buster myth. Postal: “bunker busters are likely to have very low rates of success”.
Thank you.
Samuel Conner: ...if they have information about location and depth of access tunnels, they might be able to temporarily cut off the deep galleries from the surface by collapsing those. It might be enough to declare “mission accomplished”
It seems improbable that the Iranians won’t have built with precisely this possibility in mind, so their preparations will include, forex tunnels — underground roadways — opening on the surface many miles away.
W.H. Auden
Nice one.
I have an uneasy sense that many elected Ds might be OK with a war that turns out badly for US — think of the implications for the midterms.
Not attempting to restrain DJT in the current adventure would be just more of the same in the face of executive overreach since 1/20.
Temporary delay (two weeks?), but can this ultimatum be met?
Within the next two weeks could mean tomorrow, or in two weeks, or anywhere in between.
Meanwhile Israel wants Iran’s ballistic missile program terminated, so it seems the strikes will continue regardless of what Trump does.
Israel will not last two weeks at this level of punishment.
That’s all for show and typical Trump bluster. Trump knows that Iran will not accept “zero enrichment” so making that the heart of his “deal” is a non-starter from the get go. He knows this. He says what he says for domestic consumption. The only real reason Trump may delay attacking Iran is because he fears things may go very badly and so he is likely requesting strong assurances from the Pentagon that things will go “very well”.
Israel is pushing for both no enrichment and no missiles, primarily to scupper the agreement.
I can’t believe even they think Iran would agree (particularly the missiles).
Re; Ali rope-a-dope
Boxing is a science, and not just a couple of meatheads pounding the crap out of each other in a ring. In meathead vs thinker, a thinker in reasonable condition will most always prevail.
Ali, god bless the man (and Foreman too– good man), was an expert in the ring and out-thought a stronger and more brutal Foreman in this legendary bout: https://youtu.be/nCOvjkbEn3c?si=YTaSLEtu10g6hC5B
So when we’re talking “rope-a-dope” as strategy, that 5-minute video will help to provide context (and I don’t disagree with the analogy– it fits).