Yves here. It is exceedingly difficult to keep of top of Turkish President Recep Erdogan’s ongoing playing of various parties against each other. Readers can give many examples, but one layer of his many schemes was being helpful to Russia after the start of the Special Military Operation by continuing to trade with Russia and refusing to allow military ships to enter the Black Sea, to the great annoyance of the US. At the same time, Turkiye’s considerable role in the collapse of Syria was to Russia’s detriment.
That is a long way of saying I cannot evaluate Korybko’s thesis but it is plausible.
By Andrew Korybko, a Moscow-based American political analyst who specializes in the global systemic transition to multipolarity in the New Cold War. He has a PhD from MGIMO, which is under the umbrella of the Russian Foreign Ministry. Originally published at his website
Turkiye sees an opportunity to turbocharge its rise as a Eurasian Great Power along Russia’s entire southern periphery in ways that autonomously align with American grand strategic interests.
Russian-Azerbaijani relations are in trouble as a result of two scandals. The first concerns the recent police raid against suspected ethnic Azeri criminals in Yekaterinburg, during which time two of them died in circumstances that are now being investigated. That prompted Baku to officially complain to Moscow, after which a vicious infowar campaign was launched on social media and even among some publicly financed outlets as well alleging that Russia is “Islamophobic”, “imperialist”, and “persecuting Azeris”.
This was shortly thereafter followed by a police raid on Sputnik’s office in Baku, which had been operating in a legal gray zone after the authorities moved to effectively shut it down in February, thus resulting in the detainment of several Russians. That earlier decision was suspected to be connected to Azerbaijan’s displeasure with Russia’s response to late December’s airline tragedy in the North Caucasus that was caused by a Ukrainian drone attack at the time. Readers can learn more about it here and here.
Before determining who’s responsible for the latest trouble in bilateral ties, it’s important to recall the larger context within which all of this is unfolding. Prior to late December’s incident, Russian-Azerbaijani relations were proceeding along a very positive trajectory in accordance with the strategic partnership pact that President Ilham Aliyev agreed to with Putin on the eve of the special operation in late February 2022. That built upon Russia’s role in mediating an endto the Second Karabakh War in November 2020.
More recently, Putin visited Baku last August, the significance of which was analyzed here and here. This was followed by Aliyev visiting Moscow in October in connection with the CIS Heads of State Summit. Shortly before late December’s airline tragedy, Aliyev then gave an extended interview to Rossiya Segodnya head Dmitry Kiselyov in Baku, where he elaborated on Azerbaijan’s multi-aligned foreign policy and newfound suspicions of the West’s regional intentions towards the South Caucasus.
On that topic, the Biden Administration sought to exploit Armenia’s loss in the Second Karabakh War to more radically turn it against Russia and thus transform the country into a joint French-US protectorate for dividing-and-ruling the region, which worsened relations with Azerbaijan. The Trump Administration appears to be reconsidering that, however, and might have even agreed to let Armenia become a joint Azeri-Turkish protectorate instead. It’s this perception that’s driving the latest unrest in Armenia.
From Russia’s perspective, the French-US protectorate scenario could spark another regional war that might spiral out of control with unpredictable consequences for Moscow if they weaponize the revival of Armenian revanchism. Similarly, the Azeri-Turkish protectorate scenario could turbocharge Turkiye’s rise as a Eurasian Great Power if it leads to an expansion of its influence (especially military) in Central Asia. The ideal scenario is therefore for Armenia to return to its traditional status as a Russian ally.
Having explained the context within which the latest trouble is unfolding, it’s now time to determine who’s responsible. Objectively speaking, the Azerbaijani authorities overreacted to the recent police raid in Yekaterinburg, which signaled to civil society that it’s acceptable (at least for now) to wage a vicious infowar campaign against Russia. Some officials with an unclear connection to Aliyev then authorized the raid on Sputnik’s office as an escalation under the implied pretext of an asymmetrical response.
Given the ambiguity about Aliyev’s role in Azerbaijan’s overreactions, it’s premature to conclude that he decided to jeopardize the strategic ties with Russia that he himself cultivated, though he must still take responsibility even if mid-level officials did this on their own. That’s because Baku’s official complaint to Moscow and its raid on Sputnik’s office are state actions, unlike the recent police raid in Yekaterinburg, which is a local action. He’ll thus likely have to talk to Putin sometime soon to resolve everything.
The abovementioned observation doesn’t explain why mid-level officials might have overreacted to the Yekaterinburg police raid, which can be attributed to the deep-seated resentment that some have against Russia and speculative foreign influence. Regarding the first, some Azerbaijanis (but importantly not all and seemingly not the majority) harbor such sentiments, while the second might be linked to the scenario of the US letting Armenia becoming a joint Azeri-Turkish protectorate.
To elaborate, the US and France would struggle to turn Armenia into their own joint protectorate due to Georgia successfully repelling several rounds of Biden-era Color Revolution unrest, which aimed to pressure the government into opening up a “second front” against Russia and toppling it if it refused. The military logistics required for turning Armenia into a bastion from which they could then divide-and-rule the region therefore are no longer reliable since they could only realistically run through Georgia.
Accordingly, the Trump Administration might have decided to cut their predecessor’s strategic losses by “giving” Armenia to Turkiye and Azerbaijan, which would repair the troubled ties that he inherited with both. In exchange, the US might have requested that they take a harder line towards Russia if the opportunity emerges, knowing that neither will sanction it since that would harm their own economies but hoping that a future situation would develop to serve as the pretext for escalating political tensions.
Mid-level officials wouldn’t be privy to such talks, but the aforesaid speculative request could have trickled down to them from their superiors, some of whom might have implied state approval for overreacting to any forthcoming “opportunity”. This sequence of events could bestow Aliyev with the ability to “plausibly deny” his role in events as part of a de-escalation deal with Putin. The whole purpose of this charade might be to signal to Russia that a new order is forming in the broader region.
As was earlier explained, that order could be a Turkish-led one upon Ankara and Baku subordinating Armenia as their joint protectorate, after which they’d streamline military logistics across its territory to turn the “Organization of Turkic States” (OTS) into a major force along Russia’s entire southern periphery. To be clear, the OTS isn’t controlled by the West, but its Turkish leader and increasingly equal Azerbaijani partner could still autonomously advance the West’s strategic agenda vis-à-vis Russia in that scenario.
Just like the US and France have unreliable military logistics to Armenia, so too does Russia, so it could struggle to deter an Azerbaijani(-Turkish?) invasion of its nominal but wayward CSTO ally if Baku (and Ankara?) exploits its latest unrest (such as if Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan falls). Moreover, the most optimal branch of the North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC) runs through Azerbaijan, which could block it if Russia takes decisive action in defense of Armenia (however limited due to the special operation).
To be clear, Russia has no intention to fight Azerbaijan, but Azerbaijan’s overreaction to the recent police raid in Yekaterinburg might be a ploy to preemptively craft the perception that Russia “backed down” as a result if Moscow doesn’t take decisive action to deter Baku if regional tensions over Armenia worsen. Had it not been for that raid, then perhaps some other pretext would have been exploited or concocted, but the point is that Russia and Azerbaijan have polar opposite visions of Armenia’s geopolitical future.
That same future is pivotal for the future of the broader region as was written, but Russia has limited means for shaping the course of events due to its complex strategic interdependence with Azerbaijan vis-à-vis the NSTC and its understandable military prioritization of the special operation. The preceding constraints are self-evident, and Aliyev (and Erdogan?) might be preparing to take advantage of them, emboldened as he(/they?) might be by Russia’s perceived setback in Syria after Assad’s downfall.
Azerbaijan is aware of its irreplaceable role in turbocharging allied Turkiye’s rise as Eurasian Great Power, which is dependent on subordinating Armenia in order to then streamline the OTS’ military logistics between Asia Minor and Central Asia via the South Caucasus. If Aliyev came to believe that his country has a brighter future as part of a Turkish-led regional order instead of a Russian-led one, especially if the US signaled approval of this as speculated, then Baku’s overreaction to recent events makes more sense.
The Moscow-mediated Armenian-Azerbaijani ceasefire of November 2020 calls for the creation of a Russian-controlled corridor across Armenia’s southern Syunik Province, which Baku calls the “Zangezur Corridor”, for connecting both parts of Azerbaijan. Pashinyan hitherto refused to implement this due to pressure from the West and the Armenian diaspora therein, but if Trump decided to “give” Armenia to Azerbaijan and Turkiye instead, then he might do it but only after squeezing Russia out of this route.
Russian control would prevent Turkiye from streamlining its military logistics to Central Asia through this corridor for the purpose of replacing Russia’s influence there with its own as part of a grand strategic powerplay that autonomously aligns with the Western agenda in the pivotal Eurasian Heartland. Azerbaijan (and Turkiye?) might therefore invade Syunik if their envisaged client Pashinyan either flip-flops on squeezing Russia out or before Russia is invited into there by a new government if he falls.
The consequences of Turkiye obtaining unhindered military access to Central Asia through either sequence of events could be disastrous for Russia since its influence there is already being challenged by Turkiye, the EU, and even the UK, which just signed a two-year military agreement with Kazakhstan. That country, with whom Russia shares the longest land border in the world, has been pivoting towards the West as was assessed here in summer 2023 and this troubling trend could easily accelerate in that event.
Reflecting on all this insight, the latest trouble in Russian-Azerbaijani relations might therefore be part of a Turkish-US powerplay, one which Trump could have agreed to with Erdogan and Aliyev later jumped on board but might still have his doubts. That would account for his “plausibly deniable” role in Azerbaijan’s overreaction to recent events. If taken to its conclusion, this powerplay could risk Azerbaijan becoming Turkiye’s junior partner with time, which he’s thus far sought to avoid through his multi-alignment policy.
If that’s the case, then it might not be too late for Putin to avert this scenario so long as he can convince Aliyev that Azerbaijan has a brighter future as part of a different regional order, one that would center on Azerbaijan continuing its Russo-Turkish balancing act instead of turbocharging Turkiye’s rise. The NSTC could figure prominently in this paradigm, but the problem is that Azerbaijan’s ties with Iran and India are very strained right now, so he’d have to prospectively mediate a rapprochement for this to happen.
Anyhow, the point is that it’s premature to assume that the latest trouble in Russian-Azerbaijani relations is the new normal or that it might even precede a seemingly inevitable crisis, though both possibilities are nonetheless credible and should be taken seriously by the Kremlin just in case. The best-case scenario is that Aliyev and Putin soon hold a call to amicably resolve the issues that have abruptly toxified their ties otherwise the worst might be yet to come and it could be disadvantageous for both.
It could be be a cunning plans by USA and Turkey, or it could be related to the fact that in from March a new law in Russia regarding migrant workers may mean expulsion of half a million unregistered Azeri workers from Russia. Given that it’s estimated every eight member of Azeri workforce works in Russia, this can be seen as a possible economic disaster for the country.
Not to forget that the Azeri upper middle class is soaked by pro-Western, anti-Russia NGO flood day in and day out, so Aliyev basically has to look “tough on Russia” for his money base while maintaining job opportunities for his voting base.
I’m not saying USA and Turkey don’t have agenda for Azerbaijan, just pointing out that Russia and Azerbaijan do have their own quarrels and interests playing out here, too.
I’m not sure the NGO aspect has too much influence in Azerbaijan (at least compared to Georgia). But having lived and worked in Azerbaijan on and off for many years, a bigger influence is the large number of Western oil related companies. Large numbers of Azeirs work in these companies, they also make friends with the Westerners working in them. They often get married to one another. And many get the opportunity to work in the West permanently or on secondment as a result. All of that creates ties and links to the West which can be quite strong.
This isn’t about “looking” anything, pay attention to the actions.
Azerbaijan has been a close ally of Israel for a very long time, Israel has bases there, and fuel drop tanks of Israeli jets keep washing on the Caspian shores, because most of the attacks on Tehran happened through Azeri airspace and coming from the Caspian Sea (where Iran never expected an attack and thus had little in terms of robust defenses).
Then there is the Turkish factor, which does not need much elaborating.
They also shot some Russian officers in Karabakh in late 2023, just because they could and felt like it, and didn’t even seriously apologize.
And they have been producing weapons for Ukraine.
There is absolutely nothing friendly towards Russia in the actions of Aliyev. The various business deals benefit the Russian oligarchy, not Russia. Everything else is hostile actions.
P.S. Put all this in the context of his father being the Deputy Premier of the USSR in the 1980s and having been very close to being in Gorbachev’s place instead of Gorbachev had the dice shaken a bit differently. And who knows, the Union might have fared better under that alternative timeline. Gorbachev was an incompetent buffoon, Aliyev was a hardened KGB cadre. Yet it was already his father who started the policies listed above. And now the son is gearing for war against Russia (make no mistake, that is where this is going eventually).
Can I ask where you got the information about the drop tanks? I’d be curious to read it.
I had heard that Israel paid to refurbish an abandoned soviet air field many years ago. But was never sure if it was true or not.
IIRC Alastair Crooke mentioned it on one of the YouTubes. Larry Johnson has also mentioned it but he is friendly with Crooke so his sighting may come from Crooke.
I believe the original source for this claim is an Iranian expert Ehsan Movahedian, often quoted in Armenian press due to his somewhat strong anti-Azerbaijan stance, who based this on an image of an alleged Israeli drop tank floating in Caspian Sea.
Now, there’s no actual proof that the item is a drop tank, that it’s of Israeli origin or that it’s floating in the Caspian sea. The official Iran claims only drones were coming from Azerbaijan airspace to Iran.
Not to mention that no Israeli fighter operating from Baku (or any other Azeri airbase) would need drop tanks to reach their stand off launch point over Caspian Sea.
They didn’t operate out of Azerbaijan, only drones did.
But they flew over the northwest corner of Iran or even through Turkey, then through Azerbaijan, then turned south, thus avoiding the bulk of Iranian AD.
I’m willing to be corrected, but I seriously doubt that any Israeli fighter can make that long a trip even with three drop tanks and a mid-air refuel if it is expected to carry any actual payload, too.
Iran has 7 known Ghadir over-the-horizon radar station, several of which cover the the whole Caspian sea and Azerbaijan air space. If Israeli fighters came that way, they would know. Iran also has three naval bases on Caspian sea, so they likely do have some air defenses deployed that way, too.
I’m not saying Israelis wouldn’t think something too-clever-by-half like this, but sending their main platforms to loiter around half the Middle East for a hopefully smaller risk would still play havoc with their mission rates.
Yes, it can, it is less than 1,000 km from northern Iraq through Azeri airspace to the Alborz mountains above Tehran
And the F-35 range (roundtrip) is 1,200 km
Sure, but would they say it officially, if it means war with Azerbaijan?
The Russian media outlet attributed Azerbaijan’s hostile attitude toward Russia to the destruction of Ukrainian oil refineries by Russian forces. These refineries processed oil that Azerbaijan exported to Ukraine.
https://en.topcor.ru/61532-raskryta-prichina-antirossijskogo-povedenija-azerbajdzhana.html
Not just Azerbaijan — Lavrov yesterday officially called out Kazakhstan for the drones being launched from there towards the deep Russian rear.
Then this morning they hit the Almaz-Antey plant in Izhevsk.
With An-196 drones. Which don’t have the range to get there from Ukraine.
And if you looked at the real-time alerts, there were no notifications about drones anywhere in Tambov, Penza, Mordovia, Chuvashia, etc. regions that those drones had to go through to get to Udmurtia.
But there were alerts about Orenburg. Ulyanovsk and Tatarstan. So everything is quite clear.
Also note that this is an extremely sensitive plant, but there is worse — if they hit Izhevsk, they can hit Votkinsk, and if the Almaz-Antey factory in Izhevsk is a sensitive object, then Votkinsk is, well…
And if they are now hitting Udmurtia from Kazakhstan, they will soon be hitting behind the Urals too, where the really really vital stuff is…
P.S. Lavrov was referring to the situation from the 19-20 June when an “Ukrainian” DRG tried to invade from Kazakhstan into Orenburg and attacked the Strategic Missile Forces base there with FPVs. Which he did not mention the details of, just “drones” and the dates. But that is what was reported at the time.
Hmmmm. Apparently no good deed goes unpunished – https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/troops-protesters-clash-almaty-main-square-kazakhstan-shots-heard-2022-01-06/
Well, it’s kind of the same situation as with Yanukovich and Ukraine, only back then Putin did not intervene to save him.
But otherwise we have a corrupt cleptocrat in power who is presented as “pro-Russian”, but is actually anything but that, and under his rule the process of turning the country into an anti-Russia continues to accelerate. All that while the cretins in Moscow think that everything is OK and that if they continue to ignore the growing problem sufficiently stubbornly it will resolve itself on its own.
This goes much further back in time though, and it is even more tragic when you know the context.
A few facts:
1) Back in the 1980s Kazakhstan was actually majority Russian/Slavic. Slightly so, but still, Kazakhs were 40% at most.
2) Regardless of ethnic composition, Kazakhstan didn’t want to break up the USSR. And in fact was the last to leave it — Russia itself left, I think it was on December 12 1991, Kazakhstan was the last republic to leave, four days later.
3) The Kazakh and Kyrgyz are nomadic people with absolutely no tradition of statehood or settled urban living. Which makes them much easier to assimilate. It is very different as you go further south into the Fergana Valley when you find ancient settled civilizations. That is reflected in the history — the Basmachi rebellions were centered there — and in today’s situation, in which Kazakh and Kyrgyz migrants in Russia cause no trouble, while the Uzbeks and Tajiks are an endless source of such.
So taking all that into account, there was a real possibility that at least Kazakhstan would not have been lost in 1991. They didn’t want to secede.
And you would think that some effort would have been made to that end, because look at the map — the Soviets put the most sensitive sites as far away from oceans and external borders as possible. The external borders of the USSR that is. Not of modern Russia. Which means they are all within a few hundred kilometers from the current border with Kazakhstan. Thus if Kazakhstan gets flipped, Russia has a huge, huge, HUGE problem as the vaunted great strategic depth evaporates
Which is exactly what we are seeing now.
And it was not that difficult to foresee even back then.
But the nacsent Russian oligarchy at the time was so impatient to get on with the looting of the commons that it was eager to fully dissolve the union so that the looting can begin ASAP. Long-term geostrategic considerations played no role in their thinking.
And here we are…
“The Kazakh and Kyrgyz are nomadic people with absolutely no tradition of statehood or settled urban living. Which makes them much easier to assimilate. It is very different as you go further south into the Fergana Valley when you find ancient settled civilizations. That is reflected in the history — the Basmachi rebellions were centered there — and in today’s situation, in which Kazakh and Kyrgyz migrants in Russia cause no trouble, while the Uzbeks and Tajiks are an endless source of such.”
True – except that from 1930 – 1932 the Nomads were forcefully settled down. Of course with lot´s of violence. About 40% of the Kasakh population died. The result has been an ecological catastrophy as either land that was not suitable for agriculture was plowed (think central asian dustbowl) or else land was underused that needed animals to stay in balance. Kasakhstan is one of the saddest places on earth for that. The Russian attitude towards the Nomads resembles that of US settlers in the prairies. As long as the only modern “civilisation” they knew was Soviet the Kasakhs acquiesed to their fate and even embraced it in the name of progress. There´s been a shift in consciousness though and Kasakhs understand that there´s more than one way to modernity. Nevertheless I believe that Kasakhs and Kasakhstan will stay Russia friendly because of China. There´s a Kasakh minority in neighbouring Xinjiang and they been caught up in the genocide that China is perpetrating against the Uighurs. It is not a subject that you can openly adress as China is pressuring the Kasakh government to keep mum but people and the leading strata know. In comparison Russia is a much better neighbour and much less of a threat.
Korybko is hyperventilating, methinks.
This could be nothing more than a feud between rival business clans (or underworld groups) in Yekaterinburg; I’m guessing one of them bribed the local cops to start a criminal case against their competitors (the idea that Russian cops would re-open a cold case from 20 years ago is knee-slappingly hilarious, unless someone paid them a hefty bribe). As Azerbaijanis were targeted, they asked their home team to retaliate on some local Russians (there are lots of Russians in Azerbaijan, and plenty of Azeris in Russia too). I doubt that Aliev or Putin (let alone the Yankees or Turks) had anything to do with it initially, but of course everyone will use this scandal to their perceived advantage now that it’s in public view.
Perhaps Daniil Adamov from Y-burg will chime in with some local knowledge.
I have yet to see a definitive explanation as to why the Azeri jet crashed back in December. Until the investigators publish their findings, we can only speculate.
The five Stans of Central Asia are very much in the orbit of China and Russia and will likely stay that way: geography is destiny. Note that the recently completed China-Iran rail link runs north through the Stans, not directly east via Pakistan or Afghanistan.
I cannot imagine Armenia and Azerbaijan (let alone Turkey–what about Ye Olde Genocide back in WW1?) burying the hatchet, regardless of what the USA might desire. Certainly not anytime soon.
‘Turkiye sees an opportunity to turbocharge its rise as a Eurasian Great Power…’ — This is silly. Turkey’s economy is a rickety structure (35% annual inflation, yikes), certainly far too weak to finance any of Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman fantasies.
Eventually Aliev and Putin will smooth things over.
Korybko is always worth reading, but sometimes he thinks too much.
These are not Turks. These are the Azerbaijanis themselves. They are dizzy with success, but I doubt that Baku will follow the path of Kiev. It’s a big risk. Although anything is possible
I’ll write more. It’s all because of Iran. Until the very beginning of the war with Iran, I was sure that Azerbaijan would refrain from participating. But, apparently, I was mistaken. There were many reports that they decided to support Israel. All other explanations do not correspond to the situation in any way.
How can Turkey overcharge across the Caspian Sea? Who’s navies are best place to control the Caspian? Russians and Iranians.
That the Turks have ambitions and especially Erdogan, who has the same morality as Mossad, that is not disputable. But the means are not there.
On the border of Europe and Asia at the crossroads of so ma ny competing trade and petroleum corridors, and in the middle of so many historic, ethnic and culture contradictions, Azerbaijan is the perfect location for the CIA. There are endless opportunities there to creat chaos.