Recent Items

The Trump Route in the Southern Caucasus: Setting Events in Motion 

Posted on by

The US has successfully weaseled its way into the South Caucasus with the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), a catchy Nobel-begging rename of the Zangezur Corridor. We’ve been on this slow-motion train crash for the past few years and you can read here, here, and here for more background and details on this years-long effort.

For this piece let’s look at what it is, what it isn’t, what it means for the region and major outside players, and perhaps most importantly, what comes next?

Details of the Deal 

Here is the full text of the US-brokered Armenia-Azerbaijan joint declaration. Notably it does not deliver peace between the two countries. There is still work to be done there.

But it does establish the controversial corridor between Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan exclave—and therefore Türkiye. Reuters with further details:

Armenia plans to award the United States exclusive special development rights for an extended period on a transit corridor that will be named the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, and known by the acronym TRIPP, the officials said.
The route will be operated according to Armenian law and the United States will sublease the land to a consortium for infrastructure and management, the officials said.

Reactions

Both Russia and Iran criticize the import of actors (the US) into the regional dynamics.

Other statements from branches of the Iranian government are much stronger and hint at the likelihood of conflict. More on those below.

Meanwhile, Israel is happy:

The Economics 

To be clear this deal does not represent an economic game changer that is overnight going to reshape regional or global trade. It was never going to be that, but it always had the potential to destabilize a region that is already a tinderbox with conflicts all around it—and that was before the US became directly involved.

For now, there are a lot of unknowns.

It is unclear who is going to construct the transport links and pipelines that Türkiye and Azerbaijan envision.  Who controls the TRIPP corridor? That’s a little murky.

According to Pashinyan,  investment companies may have their own security or guard services, but he promised that this “in no way limits the powers and activities of the Armenian police, the National Security Service, or the judicial and legal system.”

Okay, then. The Armenian prime minister also said that the country might rely on the technological wizardry of the US for border and customs:

“One of the memorandums signed with the United States concerns strengthening the capacity of our border and customs services. They have advanced technologies they use themselves. If we gain access to them, we will simplify procedures as much as possible.”

From these unknowns spring more:
How much trade gets rerouted here?
How much does it cut out Iran?

And answers to those questions ultimately may dictate how Russia and Iran respond.

Here are some knowns.

Russia and Iran remain dominant players militarily and economically in the region. And numerous agreements between Azerbaijan, Türkiye and Iran already are already in place involving pipelines and other infrastructure that already exist or are currently under construction.

For example, Baku and Tehran agreed to the “Aras Corridor” in 2023, which was at the time blessed by Türkiye. It is a 55-kilometer highway and railway route that would link Azerbaijan and its exclave through Iranian territory and is nearing completion.

While TRIPP could eventually cut Iran out of the 15% commission it earns from Azerbaijan’s gas supplies to Nakhchivan and reroute some Azeri-Turkish trade away Iran, this is mostly insignificant for Tehran.

TRIPP does nothing to open a gateway into Central Asia for Türkiye and NATO. That’s because it does not magically find a way to Central Asia that avoids the Caspian, Iran, and Russia.

For example, Türkiye recently signed a major gas deal with Turkmenistan that would see it arrive via Iran. TRIPP won’t change that; only a Caspian pipeline would be able to avoid Iran and Russia. Iran also serves as a route for Turkish exports to Central Asia. An average of about 12,000 Turkish trucks use the route monthly, with Iran charging passage fees of up to $800 for their journey to the Turkmenistan border.Again, TRIPP doesn’t change that.

Let’s also not forget that Russia, to varying degrees, plays major roles in the energy economies of Azerbaijan and Turkiye. Due to Russian companies’ large investments in the Azerbaijani oil and gas sector, it is one of the bigger beneficiaries of Brussels’ efforts to increase energy imports from Azerbaijan in order to replace Russian supplies. Türkiye gets nearly half of its natural gas and a quarter of its oil from Russia on good deals and profits from sending Turkstream gas on to Southeastern Europe.

As for Armenia, it remains economically dependent on Russia.

The price of liquified petroleum gas (LPG), which is widely used in cars there, surged by 40 percent after Georgia blocked the transit of gas from Russia. Moscow hasn’t come out and said it, but it’s believed in Armenia that Georgia is acting on behalf of the Kremlin, and it is intended to send a message. Georgia also recently blocked the export of Armenian brandy to Russia, and there are plenty of other levers Moscow can pull. As Fitch Ratings notes, Armenia’s economy relies significantly on Russia for both trade and energy. For example, Armenia also currently pays Russia $165 per thousand cubic meters of gas, well below the market price in Europe, and Russia is Armenia’s number one trading partner.

As Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova notes:

“It is also important to remember that Armenia is part of the unified customs space of the Eurasian Economic Union, led by Russia, including the organization of transit cargo transportation through Armenia’s territory.”

There’s also this:

Washington says its agenda is about elbowing out Iran and Russia from the region.
Then-U.S. assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian Affair, James O’Brien summed this position up in his 2023 comments during “The Future of Nagorno-Karabakh” House committee hearing:

“A future that is built around the access of Russia and Iran as the main participants in the security of the region, the South Caucasus, is unstable and undesirable, including for both the governments of Azerbaijan and Armenia.”

But of course talk of security and stability is not what the US is after. It is the opposite.

So What Does TRIPP Do?

It is another fly in Russia’s soup—one that is helping to torpedo diplomatic relations between Moscow and Yerevan and Baku. For more background, see here, but the trend is picking up steam.


And here comes Baku with a threat that likely has Moscow rolling its eyes:

The situation is more concerning for Iran as TRIPP could cut its land access to Armenia and is viewed by Tehran as an effort to strengthen Israeli, NATO, and Takfiri footholds along Iran’s borders.

What Is Armenia Getting?

Some in Armenia believe TRIPP might “curb Aliyev’s ambitions.”

Well, suppose that’s something, and makes sense since he now has the major prize he was seeking. But Armenia already had a way to curb his ambitions, as much as the current government refuses to admit it. Azerbaijan could have overrun Armenia in 2020. Moscow stopped it. No, Russia did not attack Azerbaijan as many in Armenia insist it should have.

What is Armenia losing? Well, sovereignty over its southern border with Iran.
It could jeopardize economic relations with its towering neighbor to the north, which would devastate the country.

Are the Americans and its vassals going to ride to the rescue? Hah! Last year the EU launched a measly four-year 270 million Euro fund to help “bring Armenia into the Western fold.” Even if Brussels were to get serious, there’s no way Russia and Iran are going to sit back and let the Western pyromaniacs rig the joint.

The Pashinyan government has invited the foxes into the hen house and gained very little for it.

What Comes Next?

As we wrote recently the US goal is not to build but to destroy, and TRIPP should be viewed in that light.

And as part of preparations for more attempts at regime change in Iran:

Iran is split on the issue. Some statements have reinforced earlier announcements that such a corridor is a “red line” while other comments are more toned down and accepting.

Contrast this to a July 27 statement from Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior advisor to the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, who delivered one of the strongest condemnation of the Zangezur proposal to date saying that Tehran will prevent it.

And here is IRGC deputy commander for political affairs Brigadier General Yadollah Javani in a statement yesterday:

“If Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister [Nikol] Pashinyan had given attention to the consequences of their decision to drag the US, the United Kingdom, and NATO into the Caucasus region, they would never have been deceived by the gambler [Donald] Trump.

The top officials of these two countries, without considering the realities of the Caucasus and the interests of other countries in the region, and while they were influenced by the promises of the United States, the Zionist regime, and several European countries, clumsily took an adventurous and costly action regarding their countries.

The strategic mistake by Zelensky has so far inflicted heavy and irreversible costs to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The mistake made by these two leaders is much bigger than the mistake made by the Ukrainian president. With his strategic mistake, Zelensky provoked only the Russians and turned them against him. But what the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia did in the White House… turned several important countries in the region against themselves.”

Perhaps Iran begins to demand its own transport corridor as a way to slice through TRIPP. Here is one Iranian professor’s idea:

US /Israel intentions are clear, and they will not stop trying to destabilize Iran until stopped. Yet moves like TRIPP are helping to drive tighter alignment between Tehran and Moscow (and Beijing). As John Helmer recently opined, Moscow might be ready to help defend Iran in the next stage of the fighting.

We could see Armenia continue to move away from Russia—although, again, it’s hard to see how that would work economically. Perhaps Pashinyan really believes some of what he was selling in a Washington press conference:

“This will bring billions to Armenia. They will be invested in our children’s education, healthcare, and in ensuring the happiness and well-being of our citizens. And it will create new layers, tools, and formulas for security.”

Yerevan could withdraw from the Eurasian Economic Union, expel Russia from its military base in the country, and try to take control of its railways (the country is in the process of nationalizing its power grid owned by a jailed Russian-Armenian billionaire).

While TRIPP would be the shortest route on the middle corridor, it is not the only one. There is the aforementioned route through Iran, and there’s also Georgia.

Of course the US and its sidekicks have been active there trying to foment regime change. We should expect a return to western propaganda outlet stories about attacks on democracy there along with sanctions and doubling down on the destabilization campaign.

In Azerbaijan there is talk about joining the Abraham Accords, although that wouldn’t represent anything all that new considering how Aliyev has already shown his true colors. We’ll see if Beijing begins to rethink its comprehensive strategic partnership with Baku.

The Trump administration is also looking to boost arms exports to Azerbaijan.

Aliyev is apparently unconcerned by reports that Pentagon suppliers are cutting production due to Chinese export controls on critical minerals.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Subscribe to Post Comments
4 comments

    1. Conor Gallagher Post author

      Thanks for catching, Marcel. Looks like most of the links got cut out for some reason. Fixed now!

      Reply ↓
  2. Polar Socialist

    Great article, Conor! Thank you.

    I do think from the context that the sentence right after The Economics subheader: “To be clear this deal does represent an economic game changer…” is missing a negative, though.

    Reply ↓
  3. Adam1

    “…it always had the potential to destabilize a region that is already a tinderbox with conflicts all around it—and that was before the US became directly involved.”

    So everything is going according to the plan.

    Reply ↓

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *