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Links 9/20/2025

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Here are the 2025 Ig Nobel Prize winners Improbable (Micael T)

Scientists Discover Why Alcohol Blocks Liver Regeneration, Even After You Quit SciTech Daily (Chuck L)

What to Know About Mirror Life Nautlius (Micael T)

#COVID-19/Pandemics

Climate/Environment

How Climate Change Is Increasing Landslide Risk Worldwide Scientific American

The island that banned hives: can honeybees actually harm nature? Guardian (Kevin W)

Forests Are Raining Plastic: New Study Reveals Shocking Pollution SciTech Daily (Chuck L)

Texas Oil Boom Spawns a Toxic Crisis of the Industry’s Own Making Bloomberg

China?

Chinese readout of Xi-Trump phone call on Friday Pekinology. Translation; English version not yet published. Chinese readouts are normally detailed. Seems thin for a 90 minute conversation.

While entertaining, this is just a wet noodle lashing. China has not restricted trade and buys weapons:

Poland’s Attempt To Blackmail China Will Hurt Itself Most Moon of Alabama (Kevin W)

Mass protest expected in Philippines capital amid public fury over alleged corruption in government projects Guardian

Indonesia’s ill-timed return to the financial brink. Bank Indonesia under pressure as Prabowo’s fast and loose spending stirs ghosts of 1997–98 meltdown Asia Times

Antipodes

NZ Government’s Economic Stewardship Challenged by Big GDP Slump Bloomberg

Africa

Children are bound to die’: Corruption, aid cuts and violence fuel a hunger crisis in South Sudan Independent

Tensions are escalating in eastern Congo as the M23 rebel group and government forces dig in along the frontlines — threatening fragile peace efforts AfricaNews

European Disunion

Professors of Propaganda: How the EU’s Jean Monnet Programme corrodes academia Thomas Fazi, MCC Brussels (Chuck L)

France’s big protest: Who’s on strike, why and what’s next? Aljazeera

‘Resilience factories’ German Foreign Policy. Micael T: “I read ‘startup and I think bezzle.”

If it’s a shame about royalty, we must abolish the monarchy immediately Aftonbladet via machine translation (Micael T)

Old Blighty

Public sector borrowing in August has jumped to its highest level in five years, raising fears of huge tax hikes in the autumn to balance the books City AM

The big story from Bank of England is an easing in tightening to avert massive losses Sky

UK food industry shows shocking lack of contingency plans for water shortages Food and Drink Technology

I have never seen quality as bad as this’: Scottish farmers fear ‘financial crisis’ as early harvest takes its toll Business Green

Israel v. the Resistance

The Israeli Threat to America John Mearsheimer

Israel “falsifying” Palestinian rapes to further Gaza genocide Asa Winstanley

* * *

The high cost of the US supporting the Israel attack on Qatar. No doubt this deal was in the works for a while, but one has to think the strike overcame any remaining doubts or sticking points:

Shockwave as Houthi drone hits hotel; Qatar attack triggers new Mideast alliance Janta Ka Reporter, YouTube

Israel On Notice? Iran Launches ‘MYSTERIOUS’ Missiles After Saudi’s Atomic Bomb Surprise Times of India, YouTube

* * *

* * *

Turkey warns Cyprus’ Israeli air defense system could ‘destabilise island’ TNA (Kevin W)

* * *

Syraqistan

Syria risks rupturing as armed camps face off across the Euphrates Reuters (Robin K)

New Not-So-Cold War

SITREP 9/19/25: “Russian Incursion” Scare Heats Up as Enfeebled NATO Hobbles to Respond Simplicius

EU floats plan to use frozen Russian assets for Ukraine loan, bypassing a Hungary veto Reuters

Deep strike: Ukrainian drones hit major Russian oil plant 1,300 km from front lines TVP World

* * *

Ukraine’s Fight at Home: The Battle Against Corruption Is Essential to the War Against Russia
Foreign Affairs. Robin K: “‘Lately, Ukraine’s people have also had to pressure their government in matters of domestic politics.’ Damn, I’d really like to know how they did that so it could be tried in the US.”

EU to encourage Ukrainians to return home RT (Kevin W)

A New Soft Power Ploy By Putin Nomea (Micael T)

Poland border closure choking China-EU rail trade Asia Times (Kevin W)

Czech ammo lifeline for Ukraine comes under fire at home Politico (Kevin W)

Roundabouts or tree trunks: How the Baltic states should protect themselves from an invasion Overton via machine translation

Caucasus

Engineering Peace? Anatol Lieven and Artin DerSimonian, New Left Review (Robin K)

Big Brother is Watching You Watch

Samsung Announces Plans to Plaster Your Smart Fridge With Digital Advertisements Futurism (Kevin W). Shades of the fridge in Philip K. Dick’s Ubik asking to be paid in order to open the door. It has to spy on you or otherwise harvest your data to target ads effectively, so doubly offensive.

Imperial Collapse Watch

The UN at 80 Warwick Powell

Your First Call After You Shoot Someone New Yorker (Robin K)

Trump 2.0

USDA’s DEI Purge: How Trump and Rollins are reshaping American agriculture Investigate Midwest (Robin K)

Antifa hasn’t existed since 1933. That makes Trump’s attack on it even more menacing Globe and Mail (Dr. Kevin)

US looks to state-backed TSMC model for Intel turnaround Nikkei. Since the US leadership class and even more so the Trump team can’t manage its way out of a paper bag, I am not holding my breath.

Bureau of Labor Statistics postpones key data report Axios. Inflation.

Judge throws out Trump suit against New York Times The Hill

“Unacceptable”: Prominent U.S. Senators Demand FDA Provide Names of Troubled Foreign Drugmakers Skirting Import Bans ProPublica (Robin K)

Immigration

Trump Says the U.S. Will Institute $100,000 Fee for Skilled Worker Visas New York Times

From a comment by ChrisPacific (shortened) who notes the reporting on this change is generally lousy:

Linking to this (the original source) on the ongoing fee story about H-1Bs, since the reporting on it seems more than usually bad:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/09/restriction-on-entry-of-certain-nonimmigrant-workers/…..

So the key points are:
– It will now cost $100k to apply for an H-1B visa
– This rule is in force for 12 months and will cease to apply unless renewed (these two points are being incorrectly reported in some places as a $100k annual fee)
– If you are well connected, you can get the government to agree to an exemption on either an individual, company or industry basis.

Assuming this goes ahead, it’s going to kill the Infosys/Wipro model pretty much dead (not that anybody will shed tears for it). It would probably also harm the big US tech companies like Amazon and Microsoft, except that Trump claims they’re supportive, so if he’s not blowing smoke then that probably means they have their Section 2c exemptions lined up already.

As for smaller businesses (namely any without a hotline to the Secretary of Homeland Security) H-1B will be pretty much dead for them as well.

Charlie Kirk

Charlie Kirk Update and, As Predicted, Europe Snapbacks on Iran Larry Johnson

Our No Longer Free Press

Calls to Boycott Disney Explode After ABC Submits to FCC Threats by Ousting Jimmy Kimmel Common Dreams

Why Jimmy Kimmel’s First Amendment rights weren’t violated – but ABC’s would be protected if it stood up to the FCC and Trump The Conversation

Jon Stewart’s Post-Kimmel Primer on Free Speech in the Glorious Trump Era Daily Show, YouTube

Why Are Right-Wing Comedians ‘Deafeningly Silent’ on Jimmy Kimmel? Zeteo

Mr. Market is Moody

Foreign holdings of US Treasuries surge to all-time high in July, China’s sink Reuters

Margin Debt Has Soared. It’s the Skunk at Wall Street’s Garden Party Barrons

A Japanese debt crisis is closer than you think Asia Times

Monopoly

“Yikes”: Internal emails reveal Ticketmaster helped scalpers jack up prices, FTC says ars technica (Kevin W)

Class Warfare

Sports fans, this demonstrates that BlackRock’s vector of power is not via the companies BlackRock invests in nearly entirely via index funds where these funds are obligatory buyers, but governments:

The world is about to have trillionaires. Enough is enough Jacobin (Micael T)

Top 10% account for nearly half of all consumer spending News Nation Now

Migrant farmworkers sue seed-corn company over wages and housing Iowa Capital Dispatch (Robin K)

Antidote du jour (via):

And a bonus (Chuck L):

A second bonus (Chuck L):

And a third:

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

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160 comments

  1. The Rev Kev

    ‘Raina MacIntyre
    @Globalbiosec
    Elimination of #measles in Australia achieved after 1997 measles control campaign by health minister Wooldridge: 2nd dose moved from 12 to 4 yrs. Removing 12 m dose will result in massive resurgence of measles, which can be predicted mathematically. 1/2’

    Meanwhile, in other news-

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-20/measles-outbreak-queensland-growing-middlemount-case/105798134

    https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/measles-alert-for-sydney-after-returned-traveller-from-indonesia-tests-positive/news-story/e41a38690a7f477d2249a21bc3731847

    https://thewest.com.au/news/public-health/measles-alert-fifo-workers-urged-to-check-vaccinations-as-new-wa-measles-cases-emerge-c-20059264

    News at 11.

    Reply ↓
    1. Norm

      Yeah, measles vaccination isn’t perfect, but it sure beats the alternatives.

      The measles vaccination schedule in Australia works like this:

      – if you were born before 1966 you almost certainly have immunity from getting measles as a kid, and don’t need to be vaccinated.
      – if you were born between 1966 and 1994 you almost certainly had one dose of measles vaccine as a kid, and have 95% percent chance of being immune.
      – if you were born after 1994 you almost certainly got (or will get) two doses of vaccine, and have (will have) a 99% percent chance of being immune.
      – if you’re in the 1966 to 1994 group, you should get a second shot if you work in healthcare, schools or childcare, or are close to someone vulnerable (eg immunocompromised, elderly)
      – if you’ve come to Australia from overseas and don’t have evidence of vaccination you should get two shots.

      The people infected in the outbreaks you highlight are almost certainly:
      – born between 1966 and 1994, and only had one shot;
      – kids who haven’t had their second shot yet; or
      – people from overseas who haven’t had two shots (or measles as a kid)
      – vaccine avoiders

      These are outbreaks, not epidemics. They involve a few people, but don’t spread much. They’re rare enough to make the national news.

      https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/measles/Pages/measles-vax-qanda.aspx

      Reply ↓
  2. ChatET

    The company I used to work for used H1bs for a while then they decided to buy an office in India. No more H1bs anymore. Funny thing, the company has no business in India only USA, but they enjoy the special privileges of their business type classification all the while paying engineers in India a pittance compared to the USA. Quality shows after reporting of a 100% turnover rate in the India office and several failed projects. But they keep doing it.

    Reply ↓
    1. Screwball

      I was laid off at 59 from a large multi-national American company that everyone here has heard of and probably has one of their products. I was let go, along with about 113 others, in the second wave of cuts back in 2017. There were more cuts after that.

      Our entire IT department had been outsourced to an Indian company, and it cost us tons of American and local jobs, not sure how many. My boss, who worked at the corporate Mothership told me the engineering tech center, which we were a part of, had been “invaded” by H1B people. His words, not mine.

      They took over most of these jobs that were lost. I was replaced by one. The company was trying to get younger (and cheaper) it seems. By law, as I was told, they had to show us who was getting the axe, their ages, and who wasn’t. All, and I mean all, of the 113 were 58 to 64. One job class had 6 layoffs, all 63 or 64.

      We had 45 days to sign the separation agreement or get nothing. You could not sue the company for age discrimination (this was in bold). You could not work, due to confidentiality agreements, in the same field for 1 year. We got insurance for about 6 months, a pissy little severance, a pat on the ass, and a see ya.

      Funny, same day I get whacked, corporate reported record earnings, their stock went up about 17 percent that day, (layoff notices probably helped) and they announced a 4 million dollar expansion to our manufacturing facility. They did most of the hiring for factory labor through staffing contractors, for the record.

      A lean mean money making machine.

      Reply ↓
      1. ChrisFromGA

        Too bad you didn’t get a lawyer. The part about not being able to sue the company for age discrimination sounds illegal, or at least evidence of deception as that is not the law in my state.

        Sounds like intimidation. You always have the right to sue unless you signed that away in some sort of binding arbitration clause, which may or may not be legal.

        Of course, whether a lawsuit would succeed is another matter, but I have heard from several employment lawyers that just threatening to sue suddenly results in a lot bigger severance offer appearing like manna from Heaven.

        Reply ↓
        1. Screwball

          It just so happened my girlfriend at the time worked for a law firm. One of their lawyers offered to look it over for me. He gave me a few tips on what I might be able to negotiate with them – age discrimination not one of them. He said there was nothing I could do.

          I tried to negotiate on some other things. They told me to sign it or STFU.

          I don’t know if living in Ohio has anything to do with it. I’m told Ohio has some kind of law that you can fire someone for little or no reason and there is no recourse. I don’t know if this is true, but….

          I have a family member who is fighting cancer. She’s has just spent the last few months in chemo. It’s knocking the shit out of her, to be blunt. She had 3 treatments to go and she got fired from her job, and lost her insurance. She worked from home, which was lucky for her, but not now.

          They said there was nothing they can do. They are not only afraid of what will happen with her health, but afraid they will now lose their house.

          Don’t get old or sick…

          Reply ↓
          1. ChrisFromGA

            I’m sorry about your family member. That’s awful. Did she look into taking FMLA medical leave? That’s the law, and while they don’t have to pay you while you’re on leave, they have to at least restore you to your position when you return from the mandatory leave period, or put you in a comparable one.

            And while they can technically fire you 3 seconds after giving you your old job back for cause, well, that looks very bad in court. Like, “retaliation” bad. Employment lawyers love that stuff.

            As so often is the case with the law, there are lots of grey areas to keep lawyers employed. When I got laid off in 2022, the company made a big show of publishing the ages of everyone on the list, including myself. I was the oldest. I did negotiate a better deal for myself, almost by accident (long story for another day.)

            Perhaps you wouldn’t have had a case, but you’d be surprised what being served does to people.

            Having a process server march into corporate HQ and demand to see the head of HR with a stack of papers gets their attention. Just to save the legal costs, they’ll change their tune like Tweety Bird!

            Reply ↓
            1. Screwball

              I don’t know about the FMLA stuff. Too late now anyway. They are just trying to cope, move on and hope for the best. Thanks for that just the same.

              I didn’t fight the layoff. I found work within a month. That got me to 62 and got laid off again. At that age, in my field, you are no longer employable so, like it or not, I took early retirement while trying to find a job which I didn’t.

              Reply ↓
              1. Jason Boxman

                I’m sorry to here about these bouts of economic terrorism.

                One thing that Naked Capitalism has taught me: there but for the grace of God go I. (A phrase I actually picked up from the Earl Dumarest SciFi series of books by Tubb. Kind of entertaining, but a bit repetitive with extremely 1-dimensional female characters.)

                But it’s hard to prepare for every contingency in neoliberalism. You do the best that you can.

                Stay safe!

                Reply ↓
    2. Geo

      Not my area of expertise (most things aren’t) but found this interesting breakdown by percentage of H1B holders in various industries.
      https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/reports/OLA_Signed_H-1B_Characteristics_Congressional_Report_FY2023.pdf
      (List on page 13 of the PDF)

      Had no idea the vast majority of them (65%) are in tech. Can see why that industry could use this change to allow more opportunities for American workers. Curious what this will do to already labor-starved industries like hospitals though.

      Reply ↓
      1. Screwball

        From my experience at two different companies, they wanted them because they were cheaper. Allow me to explain one example. This was a different multi-national than the one above, but still the same IMO.

        Our engineering department wanted to ship our work to a company in India. We had a couple of dozen in the department that was targeted. When they told us it was just for those times when we were too busy and time to market was important. We needed more people. We didn’t buy this. It was about replacing us at some point.

        Once they told us the plan, I did some research and created a proposal that proved, making some changes to our process, and some additional training and cost (hardware) we could in fact handle these peak demands. I took the presentation to one of the brain(less) trust. I laid it all out, piece by piece, proving we would be wasting money by outsourcing our jobs and/or labor, even for peak demand.

        He let me finish, laughed, and said; “I can get three of those people for one of you, why do I need you.” At least he was honest.

        To make a long story short, we hired a Indian company. They sent a couple people over here. We trained them over the next 6 to 8 months, then they went back and trained 8 or 10 of their people, who began doing our work.

        Within 6 months, our department lost some people, but our workload didn’t change. We spent as much time checking, and FIXING, their work as if we would have just done it ourselves.

        It probably took a year, and who knows how much money spent, to finally figure out (and admit) this was a truly bad experiment. They fired the other company, then of course we had to find new people to hire because we got rid of some we had. The company lost their butts. We only shook our heads.

        Another giant cluster by our corporate overlords.

        Reply ↓
        1. Acacia

          This is similar to my own experience. Former employer not only went looking for engineers in India, but actually had an office building constructed in Bangalore. We learned via a manager who talked too much that they were salivating at the prospect of getting engineers at one-third the cost (i.e., the same “three of those people for one of you” ratio).

          Management was even brazen enough to send us some CVs, asking: “can this person do your job?”

          I happened to see one of these CVs. Degree in “Software Configuration” from M.I.T., which in this case meant the Madras Institute of Technology. But what struck me was that the candidate had worked for eight different companies in the past two years. At first, this was a head-scratcher.

          We told management: “this person cannot do the job without training. We could hire and train them, but given their work history, why would we expect them to hang around?”

          Needless to say, these management decisions had a severe impact on morale and a number of the best engineers left the company.

          And then I heard from management that things in India weren’t working out so well. They would hire somebody, and then on the appointed starting date, the new hire wouldn’t show up. The office would phone them, only to learn — “oh, sorry, I forgot to inform you” — the new hire already had taken another job somewhere else. It seems that very often when a person was hired, they would immediately put that on their CV and go looking for another job at higher pay.

          There were some other things that went quite contrary to US management expectations, and within a couple of years the office in India was closed, the building was sold, and the whole adventure was forgotten.

          Reply ↓
  3. The Rev Kev

    “Charlie Kirk Update and, As Predicted, Europe Snapbacks on Iran”

    ‘This means that snapback has now been officially ACTIVATED, and that UN sanctions against Iran will take effect at 8pm EST on September 27th. However, China and Russia issued a joint statement following the vote and officially announced that they consider the snapback of UN sanctions against Iran to be illegal and invalid, and that they will not abide by them. In other words, they will continue to do business with Iran as usual, regardless of UN sanctions. I suspect the other BRICS nations will adopt the same position.’

    I find this a remarkable development. The European countries activated snapback sanctions without following the required legal steps first. So now Russia, China and other countries are just going to ignore those UN sanctions on the grounds of them being illegal and are not going to let Iran be isolated. I’m willing to bet that most countries know how it went down and so will privately at least take Iran’s side. In their hast to activate those UN sanctions, it is leading to a situation where they will no longer be so effective anymore.

    Reply ↓
      1. The Rev Kev

        Either that or skipping from stone slab to stone slab in those raging waters like Eliza leaping from one floating cake of ice to another on the Ohio river in “Uncle Tom’s Cabin.” The sheer power of moving water is always to be respected.

        Reply ↓
  5. The Rev Kev

    “Chinese readout of Xi-Trump phone call on Friday”

    ‘To realize this vision, both sides must move toward each other and make efforts to achieve mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation’

    This sounds like Xi having a dig at how Trump works as all that listed is the opposite of how Trump works, especially the last bit. Trump only believes in deal where he comes out the winner and other countries lose i.e. zero-sum games. For Xi to come right out and talk about win-win scenarios sounds like XI saying that he is not going to play that game and that Trump will have to change accordingly.

    Reply ↓
  6. Wukchumni

    The world anxiously awaits the arrival of the first fourth comma Illionaire, how many gotten gains can one man accrue before taking a dirt nap?

    It’s tantamount to cheering on a glutton weighing in at 1,957 pounds, and only 43 more to a ton!

    Meanwhile, this was one of the article headers in the NYT today…

    Hamburger Helper Sales Rise as Americans Try to Stretch Their Food Dollars

    The price of beef and other grocery items is climbing, and consumers are turning to canned meats and a 1970s staple.

    Cousin Eddie and Hamburger Helper

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bkExpbnjsX8

    Reply ↓
    1. The Rev Kev

      It’s so strange people striving to be the first trillionaire when it would make little difference in their lives if they could do it. We, except for an entry in the ‘Guinness Book of records” that is. Look at that 1985 film “Brewster’s Millions”-

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vCoGAZJQGmU (1:22 mins)

      And imagine challenging any person to spend a billion dollars in the space of, say, a year with nothing to show for it. Could it be even done? For these hundreds of billionaires, it sounds like that old game of ‘the person that dies with the most toys, wins.’

      Reply ↓
      1. t

        The 85 film is a remake of a 45 movie that might be a remake of a forgotten silent film.

        It’s an odd story.

        I don’t know if Richard Pryor was just hired for the remake or had an interest in the story.

        Reply ↓
      4. principle

        A movie that brings memories to the long gone VHS era.

        As far as billionaires go, you’ve missed the point. They don’t want money in order to spend money. They want more money, in order to have more money. Regular people can not understand mind of psychopat. Asking them why they need more money, is like asking serial killers why they need to kill more people.

        Reply ↓
    2. ambrit

      I can yet again attest to rising grocery prices here in the North American Deep South.
      I did the weekly shopping yesterday. As usual I ‘visited’ seven emporia in my perambulations.
      Live produce has hit a new and higher plateau. Cauliflower are now three dollars a head. Grapes are $2.95 a pound. Squash are also creeping up on three dollars a pound. The ‘standard’ smallish Industrial Grade avocados are running $1.25 each. (Industrial Grade because they are hard enough to build walls with. Organic bricks.) The choice of vegetables available has also shrunk.
      Items on other aisles have risen in price lately as well. That old Poverty Row staple, Top Cheap Ramen has risen to $.75 a packet. Mac and Cheese is now $1.25 a box. Chips, (not a staple, but a standard “comfort food,”) is up to around three dollars a bag, for the off brands. Many of the name brands are pushing five dollars a bag. Carbonated drinks are fizzing up again. Coca Cola brand is now ranging around $5.49 a six pack of .5 litre bottles. Two litre bottles of the same are retailing for $2.59 each.
      I have had to re-learn Mom’s habit of checking the coupons weekly and now perusing the weekly online sales at the various chain grocers. I still refuse to use phone apps. It is bad enough that I use a “Frequent Shopper” plan, really, surveillance program, at a chain store. As an example, I buy catfish fillets, locally sourced no less, from a big chain. I wait until they put it on “Buy One Get One” sale. Thus, I end up buying a couple of pounds of the little fishies for $5.49 a pound instead of the “normal” $10.99 a pound. I freeze the bulk of them individually in sandwich bags bathed in some distilled water with a squeeze of lemon. That assumes continued electricity service. When the grid goes down, or gets switched to favouring Surveillance State Data Centres, I might have to re-learn the joys of kippered herrings. (Mom fixed those regularly when we were young.)
      Anyway, that’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
      Stay safe.

      Reply ↓
      1. Wukchumni

        Thanks for the Store Provides Quality Ramen report, plebs can’t be pleased by the stagflation, did you happen to see any venison flavored instant noodles?

        Reply ↓
        1. ambrit

          No, the Imperium doesn’t have the Gaul to try providing that flavour ramen yet. Although, I would not be surprised to see, due to the cachet of the flavour ingreedient that this item would be deer indeed.

          Reply ↓
      2. Alice X

        At my food co-op, organic olive oil (Spain, 33.8 fl oz) just went up another 20% after a previous 30% rise. There are other things as well. Maybe tariffs? It’s a tax, donchano. Crikey!

        Reply ↓
        1. Wukchumni

          I’ve mentioned it before, and we seem to get a celestial Kessler Effect on inflation, when foodstuffs go up it sets off the cost of a muffler repair, not to mention the cost of a perm going up too.

          I’ve only ever seen what I would call quite strident inflation, in Mexican markets in the 1980’s. I remember seeing cans of food with about 20 price stickers on top of one another, to better reflect the new replacement cost-which was always rising.

          Reply ↓
        2. ambrit

          My Mr. Cynic is screaming in my ear that having the price of food be a major percentage of the ‘average’ person’s income is the old-fashioned way of maintaining control over said persons. When your main interest is centred on where your next meal is coming from, things like the World and politics take a back seat.
          We seem to be entering yet again the world of “bread and circuses.”
          Be safe.

          Reply ↓
          1. Wukchumni

            Cynic is just a cheap attempt at being a soundalike palindrome, but you’re right.

            We all tend to buy the same foodstuffs over and over again, so everybody has a good idea of how inflation is hitting them.

            I always try and get Les @ the WinCo supermarket when I’m checking out, as he’s a glutton for punishment being a Raiders fan a few years older than me, and handy to blame inflation on (a running joke between us) as well. All those increases stupid CPI never notices, we pay through the nose.

            Reply ↓
            1. ambrit

              I understand that of late, the Raiders, a very appropriate name for an Oligarch Party mascot, have a joke of a running game. Yet the ticket prices keep going up.

              Reply ↓
        3. Alice X

          So as to not be misunderstood with my first world woes (albeit woeful):

          Everyday, everyday, I have the blues,

          the Genocide Blues…

          Reply ↓
          1. ambrit

            To be countered by Team Blood Red.
            Ever get the feeling that on some days species extinction would be an acceptable option?
            Plus, I will propose that much of what claims to be the “Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave” is now a Second World polity.
            Be continuing safe.

            Reply ↓
      3. OIFVet

        Food prices in Bulgaria and Europe have been going through the roof for some time now. It’s even more amazing that many foods cost more in Bulgaria now than the exact same thing in Germany, despite much lower incomes. Yet the political class is busy telling us not to believe our lying wallets. It’s nuts.

        Reply ↓
        1. ambrit

          I wonder what the sources of those foodstuffs are? Is Bulgaria capable of feeding itself today? Also, what about fertilizer inputs? Since the dislocations of the Russo-Ukraine War, I have read that fertilizer, a traditional export of both Russia and the Ukraine, has been in “short” supply in the West.
          I realize that the Jeffersonian Yeoman Farmer was a myth even back then, but Industrialized agriculture in America has passed its optimum concentration level. Very often, bigger is not better.
          Stay safe.

          Reply ↓
          1. OIFVet

            Bulgaria is capable of feeding itself but it isn’t. EU and national policies encourage farmers to produce a lot of wheat for export, while local fruit, vegetable and livestock growers can’t compete with imports from elsewhere on the EU and from Turkey. Cartels are also bankrupting dairy farmers, buying milk for below cost and selling dairy products for an arm a leg (never mind that they also often contain milk powder, palm oil and lots of water). It’s rather grim to anticipate how the prices are bound to go up again when the Euro is introduced on January 1st.

            Reply ↓
            1. hk

              That seems nuts! Given Bulgaria’s climate zone (I think) you’d figure that Bulgaria should have very productive agriculture, esp in fruits and vegetables! That Turkey, of all countries (talking about climate, not history) should be exporting agricultural goods displacing the locals seems to confirm my hunch…

              Reply ↓
            2. ambrit

              What idiot agreed to introduce the Euro?
              This also sounds like the supposed “plot” by Stalin to ‘manage’ the agricultural economy of what is now the Ukraine back in the 1920s and 1930s. From what I have read, that plan was all about international flows. Just like today?
              Maybe the “opposition” politicians can arrange for some Russian Autarky Specialists to do a tour of Bulgaria. That should stir up the EU a bit.
              If worst comes to worst, is there still a Hapsburg family around to base the New Austrian Empire upon? Or does the Divine Porte want to reconstitute the old Ottoman Empire all the way to the gates of Vienna?
              Stay safe.

              Reply ↓
              1. hk

                One of my Austrian acquaintances likes to remind me that Rudolf von Habsburg was a Swiss, or rather, the original Habsburg castle (Rudolf’s) is in Switzerland.

                I think there are actually quite a few Habsburg descendants in European politics now, in different countries. Not sure where they fit in today’s Europe, though (they have generally been very pro European integration and the Habsburgs traditionally never have liked Russia or Orthodoxy much, ever.)

                Reply ↓
      4. Jason Boxman

        Oddly, here they’re dumping soda as fast as they can, Pepsi brands in particular are frequently buy 2-3 and get 1 or 2 free. I’ve walked out with 5 for ~ $6.50/ea and they retail for about $10.50 now. They’ve been dumping them this way on and off this entire year.

        Jellies and jams are quite a price shocker lately, the brand I buy that’s got no HFCS in it is up to $8.50 now; I finally downgraded to another brand after buying it for 8 years.

        Reply ↓
      5. Claudia Fragnito

        In Massachusetts, food prices are absolutely insane. It had gotten bad, then seemed to level out for a while but now it’s increasing out of control. It’s scary times.

        Reply ↓
      6. paddlingwithoutboats

        These prices sound wonderful, and cheap.

        I’m in BC Canada and cauliflower is around $6 a head, broccoli $4-5/ pound, butter, the cheap stuff, $8/pound, fishies, well, if they are less than $4/100 grams (about 3.5 ounces) they’re a steal.

        Gas remains at $1.90/litre so just under $8/gallon.

        You have no idea.

        Reply ↓
        1. Karen

          We buy 10 lbs. of ground chuck every 4 months or so. I was SHOCKED to find that the price was the same as it was 4 months ago.

          Reply ↓
        2. ambrit

          We use fully flattened roadkill to fashion frisbees out of. They are an export item in the local economy.
          Here, alas, road killed deer must be turned over to Wildlife and Fisheries for “disposal.” If you have to make a claim for deer related automobile damage, that Wildlife and Fisheries ticket is your passport to approved status on your claim.

          Reply ↓
  7. Mass Driver

    Here are the 2025 Ig Nobel Prize winners Improbable (Micael T)

    Trump’s press secretary stated that the President is very disappointed for not even getting one of these.

    Reply ↓
        1. thrombus

          LOL, I just saw a video of him say Cambodia and Armenia (a bad war that was just starting). That’s a new one, and not to be confused with Aberbaijan and Albania. Next one will probably be Elbonia and Freedonia.

          Reply ↓
  8. TiPs

    Re, “A Japanese debt crisis is closer than you think”, is this a test for those of us who follow MMT? The article reminds me of the Monetarists who woke up after the Covid-induced inflation to claim, “see, we were right all along!”
    The BoJ has struggled to prevent deflation for decades, and now that they have allowed long term rates to “normalize” (the 10-year rate is almost 1.6%!), the author warns us to “beware of the bond vigilantes and a debt crisis!” Sure thing.

    Reply ↓
    1. jsn

      Thing is, in Japan some of the super wealthy actually like Japan, so those debts just keep rolling over and those elites just keep collecting yen and interest income.

      No such luck over here.

      Reply ↓
  9. Carolinian

    Interesting story about honeybees that suggests commercial bee colonies and the feral versions that result could be the kudzu of pollinators, overwhelming native solitary bees and thereby having a negative effect on native plants. Here in the South kudzu itself was of course an introduced Asian species and, despite gestures toward eradication, nothing seems to stop it. There is a local outfit that will provide you with goats (confined by temp electric fences) to eat it up.

    Meanwhile Big Ag seems dependent on the trucked in bees to service their megafarms–with honeybees themselves being threatened by disease and chemicals. Is the bee conflict yet another ecological threat in our ever more populated world?

    Reply ↓
  10. John Beech

    Physical this week. Brief conversation with my primary care physician and he wrote prescriptions for the COVID vaccine for me, my wife, and soon to be 89 y/o mother. My daughter, 40 y/o and grandsons 9 and 11 y/o (who also live in our home) will have to ask their primary. For her part she’s diabetic so we don’t expect resistance, and vaccination for the boys to protect my Mom (and us as well as we near 70). Point being, hopefully we won’t have to doctor shop to get their vaccine prescriptions (money cures most evils and I’ll fly them to another state if needs be).

    FWIW, we’re in FL so RFK Jr. isn’t the only nutter affecting things because added to his general level of insanity we have a nutcase Governor. Making it worse, his appointed Surgeon General is off the scale (or so in his boss’ pocket he acts the part).

    But it gets worse, apparently the vaccine schedule we grew up with as kids is out the window. Now parents, with government’s blessing, will be sending unvaccinated children to schools. No clue how long before this blows up with tragic results, but does it really take a scientists to grok this?

    I am sad for where we are headed. I understand Kennedy’s position of not wanting to force people, e.g. leave it to their civic responsibility to do the right thing but good grief, raise your hand if you think we’re raising a population imbued with civic responsibility . . . anybody?

    Me? I’m glad for Naked Capitalism. It’s been on the forefront of this information campaign. Not an overreaction to say, we’re maybe alive because of it as we’ve been NOVID during the entire pandemic due to vaccination, plus precautionary masking, yes, still never had COVID, now +5 years since this scourge began.

    Reply ↓
    1. Jason Boxman

      I don’t miss Florida, having grown up there. Glad to hear you’ve still avoided COVID so far. May you never get it.

      Stay safe!

      Reply ↓
    1. Yves Smith Post author

      This is a bonus feature. FFS, and submitted by a reader. I don’t have time or the ability to verify vids. If you are going to bitch like this, I’ll omit bonus antidotes entirely.

      Reply ↓
      1. .Tom

        Please don’t cancel our bonuses.

        And I would not imagine NC is, as Sutter suggests, dogmatically anti-AI. I’m quite interested in what some artists have done with it. For example there’s a rather good film called Telepathic Letters made entirely using AI images telling the story of the correspondences between H. P. Lovecraft and Fernando Pessoa. There’s a trailer on YouTube but I don’t think it’s freely available yet. In the mean time, have you seen this spectacular AI Retro Rewind? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qUFv59R6UFw (19:17) I can’t take my eyes off it.

        There’s a lot to critique in AI but like any tech the ethics arises in how it is used. I can think of worse uses than getting ducks in row.

        And while we’re at it, I want to see a video of the lion getting the blow out he’s walking home from in the main antidote.

        Reply ↓
        1. anahuna

          I second that. Please keep rolling out the bonuses. They help remind us of another world.

          Besides, I see them as a challenge. Lacking the technical skills to identify a fake, I rely on the instantaneous “ick” factor. So far, it’s worked pretty well.

          Reply ↓
          2. Mass Driver

            Having techical skills, I can confirm that subconciousnes notices it first. Then the conscius part of the brain tries to explain what is wrong. For example legs of the lion looked off instantly. Then conscius part of of the brain adds info that quadrupedal animals move “diagonal” legs at the same time, and not those at the same side. At second look, the big cat seems to be a three legged beast.

            Reply ↓
      2. Butch

        I support and love the antidotes, regular, bonus or (ai) discount. Let the full financial backer who needs no contributions and can pay Yves and staff fabulously extravagant salaries worry about antidote veracity.

        Reply ↓
        1. Mass Driver

          It seems like AI for that one had lots of movies in its training set. In the first shot, the camera is not rotating but moving like it’s on a dolly. It is also very close while not distracting animals, and above the canyon, and not minding the snow. Animals acting like it’s a live action Disney movie, is just a bonus. :)

          Second shot looks much more realistic, and could have fooled me.

          Reply ↓
          1. .Tom

            See! We’re sharpening critical thinking skills with AI antidotes. Good thing too as I expect to need AI interpretive skills more and more.

            Reply ↓
  12. The Rev Kev

    “EU floats plan to use frozen Russian assets for Ukraine loan, bypassing a Hungary veto”

    This whole elaborate Jenga Tower of a scheme rests on a simple premise. That this money will be paid back when Russia pays war reparations meaning when they lose. The Ukraine will never pay that money – ever. As soon as that money arrives in that country it will be spent at a rapid clip until it is all gone – poof! – and at that point Zelensky will demand yet more money. The countries that sign up for this ludicrous scheme will be on the hook for all that money and perhaps countries like Hungary may miss the worse aftershocks though no doubt the EU will demand that they chip in a coupla billion for the cause. The best scenario for the EU would be for the Ukraine to quit the war before this scam can be implemented but so long as the money flows, the war will go on.

    Reply ↓
  13. Darthbobber

    Driving out to mother in law’s place in Cumberland county, pa recently, noticed that nobody in cumberland, Lancaster and adjoining counties seems to have planted soybeans this year.

    Perhaps they had anticipated the results of our clever Chinese trade war.

    Reply ↓
    1. albrt

      Lotsa soybeans in NW Ohio. Either they didn’t get the memo, or they did get the memo that their man in Washington will be breaking out the checkbook again.

      Reply ↓
      1. Screwball

        I’m in NW Ohio. Centered between Toledo, Cleveland, and Columbus. If I were a soybean farmer I would be really worried about now. We haven’t had rain in almost 3 weeks, and probably longer of any rain that amounted to anything. The crops look bad when driving around the country.

        I haven’t talked to any farmers, but my buddy did last week. He said the beans look like a bee bee. Not good.

        Reply ↓
  14. The Rev Kev

    “Forests Are Raining Plastic: New Study Reveals Shocking Pollution”

    Microplastics are as insidious as radiation was through all those nuclear tests last century meaning that all of us are still irradiated as a result of them. Here they are talking about forests being infested with this stuff but so are we as scientists have found microplastics in blood, the brain, the placenta, breast milk, and human bone marrow. Don’t ask me how it gets into our marrow but it does. As I said, this stuff is as insidious as fallout radiation-

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/09/250918225014.htm

    Reply ↓
  15. Henry Moon Pie

    The richest 10%–

    Yes, they’re responsible for half the consumption and half the carbon emissions that go along with that consumption. As I reported from perusing my Harvard 50th Anniversary Class Report, the preferred form of conspicuous consumption among that crowd is travel to exotic places, accounting for the fact that tourism is among the fastest growing sources of carbon emissions. Underlining just how blind these people are to what they’re doing was the entry where a Class of ’75-er bragged that his wife was head of the local Climate Action Now! group, and in the very next sentence boasted how often they flew to three different continents, including to India to their ashram.

    We’re changing the Earth for the worse from the human perspective so Boomer PMCs can bore their friends with their travel stories.

    Lao-Tzu seems to have anticipated the world of Viking cruises and pilgrimages to the summit of Everest:

    The farther you go,
    the less you know.

    Tao te Ching # 47 (Le Guin rendition)

    The farther you go, the less you know.

    Reply ↓
    1. Wukchumni

      We’re encouraged to live up to our wealth, you don’t want to disappoint in living large by needing less, and sharing what has been a glorious experiment in Socialism, thanks to the establishment of our National Parks in 1872, I speak as a 1/329.999.999th co-owner with all of my countrymen.

      Reply ↓
    2. Stephanie

      A few years ago I attended this discussion with Karen Armstrong, who was promoting her then-new book Sacred Nature, in which she called for a re-divinization of the environment in order to save it.

      Obviously I was (and am) interested in the topic, hence my attendance, but as I sat there I couldn’t help but ponder the silliness of listening to someone who’d flown from London to St. Paul, MN discuss the urgent need to save the planet. Did we have no authors closer to home? Well, perhaps none who would draw the type of crowd she did.

      But aside from her efficacy in mostly filling a theater in the Midwest, did her ideas have enough of an impact to make a difference? How does one know or measure that difference? Is making a difference necessary to justify her air travel, or anyone’s? I am certain Armstrong hasn’t had anything like the environmental impact of the average private plane-user, but I would guess her flying around doing good has had more of an impact than doing good in England would have (she mentions late in the talk of frequently visiting Pakistan, I am guessing as part of her work for the Charter of Compassion). How much impact is any one person allowed to have – more if they are doing important work, less if they are merely curious?

      Reply ↓
    3. Paleobotanist

      The best way to travel is to learn another language. You go to another world, and you can do this without any added carbon emissions as you don’t have to leave home.

      It is work however.

      Reply ↓
    4. Jason Boxman

      Indeed, what’s amazing to me is that, if Climate were taken seriously, literally the lowest hanging fruit is rich people stopping their international and private jet travel. Not banning single use plastic, lolz. While for most people it isn’t worth agonizing over personal carbon emissions, if I didn’t exist, Climate would still happen, rich people uniquely effect the world notably through their consumption patterns. And through their signaling. If living more austerely were suddenly that cool thing to do, as modeled by the elite, it likely would have ripple effects worldwide.

      But this timeline is stupid.

      Reply ↓
  16. The Rev Kev

    “SITREP 9/19/25: “Russian Incursion” Scare Heats Up as Enfeebled NATO Hobbles to Respond”

    ‘An Estonian Foreign Affairs Committee chairman did however threaten to shoot down the next Russian jet, ‘cleverly’ invoking the infamous ‘17 seconds’ it took Turkey to shoot down a Russian Su-24 in 2015’

    This guy is referring to the time when Erdogan thought it a brilliant idea to have his air force set up a well-planned ambush to shoot down a Russian fighter bomber on a mission is Syria. Erdogan – and Turkiye – paid a heavy price for that idiotic mistake but this Estonian guy is implying that maybe Estonia could also ambush and shoot down a Russian plane as well because what could possibly go wrong. Where do they find these people? And I doubt that it would be the Estonian Air Force trying to do this mission-

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estonian_Air_Force#Aircraft

    Reply ↓
    1. Ignacio

      My attention went to the speech of a German General saying, according to embedded translation, that “I think we will have gradually to accept the new reality and this new reality means that Ukraine cannot win this war, at least not militarily.”

      New reality? Well let’s go with it. How can then Ukraine win the war in a non-military fashion? Win in the MSM? That’s easy and the Ukrainians have been “winning” the war in the MSM since the very beginning or even before. Winning to no avail. Ahhh! The sanctions, Russia is still in tatters or worse! Has been in tatters for more than 3 years but they stubbornly continue to fight, and win, the military war. Some may believe that at some point the Russians won’t be able to stand more hysterical barking by the chihuahuas.

      Reply ↓
  17. AG

    re: EU – Ukraine War

    FOREIGN AFFAIRS from Sept. 10th alluding to a rather long war by way of outsourcing entirely to EU. Which has already begun as according to Andrei Martyanov e.g. military command has essentially been handed over from the US to the UK.

    German Anti-Spiegel had the FA text two daysa go

    There Thomas Röper sums up:

    “The transatlantic Council on Foreign Relations, which is highly influential in the US, published an article acknowledging the reality that Europeans alone, without the US, should assume security guarantees for Ukraine.

    On another point, the Council’s sense of reality has not yet prevailed, as its analysts are still demanding that Ukraine be fully integrated into Western structures. They are also still talking about sending European troops to Ukraine after a ceasefire, which means the war will continue for a very long time because Russia will not agree to it. This is bad news for Ukraine and its continued existence as a state.”

    Here the FA article

    A Better Way for Europe to Guarantee Ukraine’s Security
    How European Forces—and NATO Resources—Can Make the Country Stronger
    Ivo H. Daalder
    September 10, 2025
    https://archive.is/swwgb

    Reply ↓
    1. Ignacio

      Ivo Daadler lives in La-la-land. “Any agreement with Russia to end the war must preserve all three of these pillars (the formidable army of Ukraine, commitment of European deployment of substantial air, naval, and ground forces and a true security guarantee by integration of Ukraine in the EU and NATO)”

      There ain’t be any agreement of that kind with Russia. FA keeps fantasizing again and again. All of these three pillars exist only in Daadler’s imagination.

      In fact Daadler is in an indirect way saying: Europe, f¬c& you!

      Reply ↓
      1. hk

        Oh, all three can be achieved, just not the way people think.

        1. There can be a “Group of Forces in Ukraine,” as part of the Russian Army.
        2. I strongly suspect that a substantial European contingent has already been committed underground irretrievably in Ukraine.
        3. EU and NATO can be reorganized by admitting Russia to both ans expelling US, Canada, and UK from the latter.
        (/S)

        Reply ↓
  18. Lieaibolmmai

    I am tired of all the conspiracies around Tyler Robinson and his text messages. The kid has Asperger’s. How do I know? I have Asperger’s and my language is odd and overly formal at times as well.

    Since he is in his 20’s he most likely was having more psychiatric issues which is common because of the overlapping Asperger’s has with the positive symptoms of Schizophrenia. It is most likely he was having delusions no doubt fueled by internet use.

    Instead of using this instance as a call for more mental health care it is being twisted into some insane plot by grifters.

    Reply ↓
    1. Yves Smith Post author

      This comment is an unwarranted attack on this post and the site generally. You are already in moderation and are asking to be blacklisted.

      There was all of ONE link on Charlie Kirk today (the others were on the Kimmel suspension) and it had NOTHING to do with his texts.

      And if you are trying to censor other commenters, you have no business doing so. You are no better than anyone else here and are out of line in trying to shut down discussion.

      Reply ↓
      1. Lieaibolmmai

        I was commenting on the Internet in general. It not against any post here or this website in general.

        Sorry about the confusion, but as I said, I have Asperger’s and a lot of times my writing does not come across as clearly as I would like.

        Reply ↓
    2. ChrisFromGA

      I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt that “the conspiracies” you refer to are in general, and not specific to anything originating on this site. I have seen no evidence that the commenters around here are pushing conspiracy theories.

      These events (mass shootings, assassinations) always seem to inspire conspiracists. In this instance, both sides (left/right) seek to weaponize the event to score political points. If you are on the right, the fact that the shooter allegedly had a trans BF suddenly elevates this from a lone wolf shooting to a vast conspiracy with every purple-haired LGBTQ activist potentially a co-conspirator and threat to humanity. Throw in the buzzword “Antifa” and there you go.

      Likewise, the left wanted to initially paint Robinson as a right-wing gun nut, given his family history of conservative parents and gun usage.

      I find both despicable.

      What I find interesting is how the kid could be so naive as to confess to the crime via text message. For all the stereotypes of youth being super-savvy with tech, why not at least use Snapchat or some secure messaging platform (security being a relative term) like Signal? And why didn’t the romantic interest stop Robinson before he not only confessed, but gave the prosecution evidence of motive? I’d be like “whoa there, hoss, slow down, let’s not get ahead of ourselves, how about dem Yankees?”

      That at least raises my spidey-sense a bit. I guess there is an innocent explanation – people in general don’t understand how to protect their rights, and even the young can be shockingly naive about how easy it is for law enforcement to get access to their text and phone records. It doesn’t even take a subpoena, especially if they get a hold of the suspect’s phone and can get into it. I wonder if this is how they got the texts? Or did they have to go to the telcos?

      It might help tamp down on some of the conspiracy theories if the cops released this information.

      As for your theory on the suspect’s mental health, it is an interesting possibility. I have no particular expertise to add anything other than if I were the kids lawyer, I’d be looking into this as a possible defense, because otherwise, he looks to be cooked.

      Reply ↓
    3. Geo

      “The kid has Asperger’s”

      Since we’re making blanket requests can I ask that we stop referring to adults as children? I’m tired of the infantilization of adults.

      Reply ↓
  19. Lefty Godot

    I noticed the following story on America becoming a post-literate society and the imminent end of civilization as this trend continues and spreads worldwide: The Dawn of the Post-Literate Society. The author blames it all on smart phones. By coincidence I am now reading Empire of Illusion by Chris Hedges, which makes the same case for America becoming post-literate, but barely mentions smart phones—because it was published in 2009, when they were still just starting to come on strong. Hedges blames cable TV and the internet. And both books quote Neil Postman’s Amusing Ourselves to Death, which was making many of the same arguments in 1985. The overall argument is correct, but what needs to be added is that each new technological and regulatory “advance” accelerates the damage done by previous ones. Really you can start with movies and radio in the very early 20th century as the first few pebbles in the avalanche, and television in the very late 1940s was the big boulder that cascaded the decline in literacy much more dramatically, pushing us toward a culture of visual imagery and Ong’s “secondary orality” (it’s amusing to compare TV programming and advertisements from the 1950s with anything from decades later to see how primitive and tentative the early content was, as opposed to the manipulative sophistication of later offerings). Hedges also compares literacy level required to be able to follow Presidential debate arguments, finding JFK vs. Nixon in 1960 to be two full grades lower than Lincoln-Douglas, with the Obama-Trump-Biden era dumbed down almost three full grades more—down to a 7th grade level, consistent with almost half on American adults only able to read at a 6th grade level now. Aurelien likes to blame the stupidity of our leaders and the nihilism and dumbing down of society on the New Left, postmoderns, hippies, and other Baby Boomer demons, but the cause was plainly the media environment they were enveloped in from birth, an environment which got more than just additively worse for succeeding generations each time we went to a new technology (and the associated regulatory framework for it), so, from broadcast television to cable television, from personal computers to internet connected computers to smart phones and tablets, from movies in theaters to VHS to DVD to streaming, etc. And at each step the content delivered by these media (like much social media now) has become, while technically even more glossy and sophisticated, morally and culturally more crude, more violent, more degrading, and more appealing to our worst impulses.

    Reply ↓
    1. Carolinian

      We Boomers are children of the tube, and for all the teeth gnashing about the internet far too little is made of how television changed America. For example one reason the rich were able to take over politics was because campaigns began to center around expensive television advertising. Attack commercials became a staple of weak candidates like George W. Bush and his SC hitman Lee Atwater (met him once).

      Journalism too began to be more about “news personalities” rather than faceless newspaper scribes. People like Dan Rather–currently complaining about Repub threats–became millionaire celebrities with a different perspective than the old shoe leather up from the police beat crew. One doesn’t want to over simplify given all the other post WW2 changes, but here’s suggesting the sources you quote are still dead on target.

      Reply ↓
      1. Butch

        As if the founding fathers were poor people? The Robber Barons never existed? The rich have always owned the levers of politics and were onlyy temporarily throttled back by the New Deal.

        Reply ↓
        1. Carolinian

          But I never claimed that our country was once run by the poor or that pre television politics were simon pure. What I am saying is that the increasing cost of campaigns, their reliance on television and image, certain Supreme Court rulings have accelerated the class war to the point where the working class seems to have no voice at all other than the fake populism of televsion hero Trump who used his celebrity rather than his riches to win. The high cost also feeds into the Congressional incumbency racket where Congress people spend a huge amount of time sucking up to donors to pay for their campaigns. It’s a much bigger pay for play.

          Reply ↓
      1. Lefty Godot

        Can a complex civilization built by a highly literate population be maintained when it’s inherited by a barely literate population of visual image addicts who can only the describe the world in the exaggerated “good guy”-“bad guy” stereotypes of oral heroic fantasy sagas? That’s really the question. How long can America’s Eloi keep nuclear reactors, data centers, ICBM silos, hospitals, universities, interstate highways, railroads, and wastewater treatment plants repaired and running before they have to import the Russian or Chinese Morlocks to handle all that complexity for them? It’s not only that the rich are running the system with a tighter stranglehold than before, but they’re running it into the ground with their incompetence, stupidity and hubris, all the while living in a mental dreamworld where they are fabulously brilliant, meritocratic geniuses.

        Reply ↓
  20. Wukchumni

    Jon Stewart’s Post-Kimmel Primer on Free Speech in the Glorious Trump Era Daily Show
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    It’s high time for being easily offended by goings on, its getting scary-the banishment to the scorned field of any name-brands who upset all grown up now Anthony Fremont.

    How much longer before ICE (Internal Criticizer Enforcement) shows up to haul off haoles such as Joe Six-Pack and his fetching better half Jane Chardonnay?

    Reply ↓
  21. Colonel Smithers

    Thank you, Yves.

    My parents and I are in the French Alps this week.

    Yesterday, half way up Mont Blanc, it was 31 c. It’s equally warm today.

    Reply ↓
    1. Ignacio

      Amazing. Here in Madrid it is somehow hotter but, at least, night temperatures go below 20 C these days unlike in June, July or August. Particularly, June felt hellish. Here and in Paris, when i went to visit my daughter.

      Reply ↓
  22. ISL

    They are bullying everyone:
    Candace Owens’s comments were insightful, as they are also an indictment of the Trump / US foreign policy (and Israeli FP) and even Trump himself, though she is referencing Bill Ackerman. And that would place her “left” of the official US political “left.”

    Reply ↓
    1. lyman alpha blob

      If you has asked me five years ago who would be the biggest public critics of the Zionist entity, Candace Owens and Tucker Carlson would not have been anywhere near the top of my list. Yet here we are, with those other public figures who definitely know better largely silent.

      Reply ↓
      1. AG

        i might not be a regular to either (i tried to listen to Owens´s piece on Madame Macron but that as far as i came did not strike me as worth my time; perhaps wrongly so?)

        but on the general level – indeed, fantastic actually. And terrifyingly so
        on the other hand, 5 years ago I was living on the other side of the moon…it feels like a lifetime ago.

        Reply ↓
        1. hk

          My view is that “dissidents,” practically by definition, are a little nuts and are given to occasional wild and crazy musings. But, when the whole world is going crazy, it takes crazy but honest people to see and tell the truth.

          Reply ↓
          2. Jonathan Holland Becnel

            Facts, bro.

            Count me as one of em!

            Gotta do crazy shit to test the limits of our Society and find the Golden Mean 😊

            Reply ↓
  23. AG

    re: history of military affairs “Operational History (German) Section” – Nazis/US/RU

    I ran across the Operational History (German) Section which was operated by the US ARMY between 1946 and 1961.

    It tasked over 300 German officers and generals to deliver a military history of WWII.
    From THEIR POV.

    I haven´t looked it up yet but I assume this is closely related to Andrei Martyanov´s suggestions about US (post) Cold War views on Russia. Views that would shape the training and tactics of US and NATO forces against Russia not just 40 years ago but today too, alongside the experience of the War On Terror.

    Which is why I personally see it as a rather important finding. (Not to those of course who have already studied this issue closely.)

    I suggest everyone read it.
    The Wiki Page can be easily translated as there is NO Engl. version (which is more than interesting).
    https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operational_History_(German)_Section#cite_note-29
    https://de-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_hist=true#cite_note-29

    I ran across it studying German newspapers and the Propaganda Ministry´s SOP during WWII.
    Several of those men were integrated into “Operational History (German) Section”.

    It was headed by Franz Halder. Halder was:

    “(…)
    Chief of staff of the Army High Command in Nazi Germany from 1938 until September 1942     (…) directed the planning and implementation of Operation Barbarossa (…) became instrumental in the radicalisation of warfare on the Eastern Front. He had his staff draft both the Commissar Order (issued on 6 June 1941) and the Barbarossa decree (signed on 13 May 1941) that allowed German soldiers to execute Soviet citizens for any reason without fear of later prosecution, leading to numerous war crimes and atrocities during the campaign. After the war, he had a decisive role in the development of the myth of the clean Wehrmacht.
    (…)”.

    On his and the Section´s function:

    “(…)
    As early as 1946, the former Chief of the Army General Staff, Franz Halder, justified his leading role in the Operational History Program by stating that he was contributing to “continuing the fight against Bolshevism.”[21] In 1949, Halder saw his task as Topic Leader as being, in cooperation with the Control Group, “to contribute beyond the establishment of individual facts to clarifying the internal connections of major military issues.”[22]
    (…)”

    The intent and role of the studies made should not be a critical analysis. Instead:

    “(…)
    No experiences are to be recorded, no leadership secrets are to be explained or even revealed, but rather (in the style of the Reich Archives on the First World War) facts, the course of the fighting and the events on the German side are to be described. […] The German actions are to be seen and recorded from the German point of view, and thus a memorial is to be erected to our troops. […] The achievements of our troops are to be duly appreciated and highlighted. Of course, the truth must not be disregarded in this way.
    (…)”    [7]

    And this only the mundane Wiki.

    Reply ↓
    1. Polar Socialist

      I the 1970’s to 1990’s people like John Erickson and later David Glantz did an enormous job to bring to Soviet experience of WW2 to the west and prove beyond any doubt that – most WW2 German military documents being archived in Moscow – the German generals basically wrote apologies, not military history.

      When they won it was due to their brilliance (and not having superior numbers or overwhelming air support), when they lost it was Hitler micromanaging or the Soviet hordes just overrunning them. And none of them was ever involved in the deaths of the 14 million Soviet civilians in any way or form – it just kinda happened.

      When Erickson died, he was in the middle of writing a new book proving that in 1945 the Red Army was better and more efficient fighting force than Wehrmacht ever had been and that the chances of survival for an individual soldier in the Red Army were better than in any other army in WW2. Sadly, it was never finished.

      Reply ↓
      1. AG

        Much appreciated!

        I have learned of Glantz by now regularly looking up Martyanov´s military scholarship.
        Erickson´s work I will look into too now.
        Any reading suggestions?

        p.s. I have muttered for a long time critique over the fact that we as a continent do not speak Russian and therefore have missed out on 100+ years of knowledge and cultural production (just the USSR angle now) which most likely will never be compensated for.

        Similar with the total exclusion of GDR expertise by the “victorious” FRG in so many disciplines ranging from art, literature to diplomacy to economics and climate research. Generations of knowledge wiped out.

        Reply ↓
        1. gk

          Actually, German theatre companies have just started to revive DDR operettas (Messeschlager Gisela in Cottbus, In Frisco ist der Teufel los in Berlin). I don’t know how this extends to other arts,

          Reply ↓
    2. hk

      The influence is gigantic, especially evident in the writings by and of US military historians, including many serving military officers through 1960s at least. It took people who saw real combat to rethink the conventional wisdom abd that still was not easy (I note that Col Glantz was an artilleryman in VN who had much exp trading fire with PAVN gunners and their Soviet pieces who’d have appreciated the latter’s methods before becoming a full time historian)

      Reply ↓
  25. Wukchumni

    Gotta say, in a world bent on getting Hot Hot Hot, I had the most pleasant summer in my 20 years of living in Tiny Town from a temperature standpoint. Maybe we eked out a dozen days of 100 or more.

    It was as if our environment wasn’t even trying, lots of days in the lower 90’s and utterly pleasant.

    Reply ↓
    1. CanCyn

      Interesting. In complete contrast, the summer or ’25 was the worst summer I’ve experienced in my life. 8 weeks with no rain. Temperatures (humidex adjusted) in the high 40s, wildfire smoke. Unpleasant and anxiety raising. I am wearing out my night guard from grinding my teeth in my sleep. We have had some rain but not enough. I am very worried about local farmers. This is not good.

      Reply ↓
  26. Mikel

    Shockwave as Houthi drone hits hotel; Qatar attack triggers new Mideast alliance – Janta Ka Reporter, YouTube

    After clicking on this link, I noticed another video in the sidebar:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lW7L6ALWK80
    Egypt & Turkey TEAM UP – The END of ISRAEL?

    (Note: First time I saw this channel, so I’m not familiar with the background of the speakers. I’m only posting for the subject matter discussed on this day.)

    While they point out that it’s a tricky situation, this and the other videos intensifies a point: The countries in the Mid-East must get past divisions and work on unity among themselves as a first step to regional security. They may then choose other big countries outside for alliances, but their unity would be the first step toward real security – or other big powers will continue to use the divisions to their own advantage. Some may do it with less blood spilled, but they are all prone to use the advantage.

    There is still much left to unpack with the volatile situations faced by Lebanon and Iran.

    Reply ↓
    2. LifelongLib

      Well, maybe the people who are actually involved don’t share our notions of who they should unite with. It reminds me of the the time the Arabs invaded France in what allegedly was a death struggle between Christianity and Islam. In fact Christians and Muslims all over the place were happily making deals with each other to fight other Christians and Muslims. They might not have liked each other but they really didn’t like Charles Martel.

      Reply ↓
      1. Mikel

        They are making their own decisions about those using divisions for advantage. I don’t claim credit for giving them “the notion”.

        Reply ↓
  27. Munchausen

    🤡

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15115581/Putin-Russia-sends-sick-troops-HIV-illnesses-frontline.html

    Putin’s contagious Kamikazes: Russia sends sick troops with HIV and other illnesses into ‘meat grinder’ assaults amid health crisis ravaging his forces

    Russia is sending soldiers infected with HIV, hepatitis and other contagious diseases to the frontline as part of a desperate strategy to ‘ultimately prevail’, military analysts have warned.

    Soldiers sporting red armbands to denote their medical conditions have been spotted around Pokrovsk, a town in eastern Ukraine and key stronghold that has recently come under intense assault by President Vladimir Putin’s forces.

    Experts believe the sighting of such armbands is proof of the worsening health of Putin’s troops, with the number of HIV, hepatitis and tuberculosis cases said to be soaring, The Telegraph reported.

    Reply ↓
      1. Munchausen

        Daily Mail took the story from The Telegraph, which took it from “Dmytro Zhmailo, executive director of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Centre (USCC), a Ukrainian think tank with close links to the military”. So, from the same people that gave us blockbusters like Ghost of Kiev, Snake Island Defenders, and Shovels of Bakhmut.

        Reply ↓
    2. jrkrideau

      Great story. What disease were all the Ukrainians with the yellow armbands suffering? This is a level of idiocy I did not think even a supermarket tabloid could reach.

      Tomorrow
      Sasquatch comes to Ukraine’s aid.

      Reply ↓
  28. Geo

    “These are better Americans than the average American. That’s my clientele.” – Ken Cuccinelli said in 2014 when he launched Virginia Self Defense Law. (From the Self Defense Insurance article)

    Good to know our Deputy Secretary of Homeland Security believes there are select Americans that are better than the rest of us merely by purchasing his product. From GWB’s “with us or with the terrorists” to Palin’s “Real America” the notion of “What kind of American are you?” (A line in the recent movie “Civil War”) is becoming more and more weaponized and even commodified here by The Cooch.

    That said, I’m actually sort of in favor of the idea gun owners should be required to have insurance but more along the lines of auto insurance. Sure, you can have your gun but if you’re a 16-25 y/o male your insurance rates are gonna be sky high.

    Reply ↓
    1. ambrit

      A good argument, but it seems to forget the heffalump in the room, necessary population decline. As agricultural economies of scale decline, the remaining means of production manage to be able to support fewer and fewer people. This is referred to around here as The Jackpot. Insofar as this happens, those losing out in the resource competition must resort to more and more violent methods to keep alive. This is my concept of the neo-feudalism mentioned as a possibility in the essay. One major ‘service’ the Neo-feudal “Lord” offers is protection of oneself and family from the depredations of competing Robber Barons. Under this Aegis, the suggested Romantic producer cooperatives can function. A strict division of functions is established. The division of the produced resources is a matter for internal political bargaining.
      Stay safe.

      Reply ↓
  30. dandyandy

    I just stumbled on the High Priest Wurlitzer of British Establishment, Andrew Marr, blaspheming with another blasphemist, on Blightys servile status towards the Hegemon, the status that is ongoing and being enhanced by our U.K. government, in the colorectal direction.

    Old Andy is being less than respectful to all the TechBros, the horror!

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rKYHfJLbHe4

    I think it informative. There is no way in hell that any of our MSM superstars would have spoken like this about the Master and his forward troops, even a year ago.

    Reply ↓
  32. Jason Boxman

    From the New Market Wizards by Schwager in the early 1990s. We got our answer.

    In the coin toss example you just provided, computer simulations make it possible to generate huge data samples that allow you to con-dude that the mean has no limit. But how can you definitively state that the variances of commodity price distributions are not finite?
    Isn’t the available data far too limited to draw such a conclusion?

    There are statistical problems in determining whether the variance of price change is infinite. In some ways, these difficulties are similar to the problems in ascertaining whether we’re experiencing global warming. There are suggestive indications that we are, but it is difficult to distinguish the recent rise in temperature from random variation. Getting enough data to assure that price change variance is infinite could take a century.

    Reply ↓
    1. skippy

      The problem for me about all this is its application to humans in a variable environment – spanning all time and space in our history. How did DSGE models/VaR work out, generational environmental bias factored in as high powered psychology is applied via endless PR/Marketing = traditions evolve in the blink of an eye …

      Climate is a completely different observation which is sadly framed in the simplistic notion of temp. How many of the general population have the perception gained by understanding its not just a couple of degrees increase in C/F from the past. Its how much energy is present in the atmosphere/geology/oceans globally and how that effects everything e.g. more energy means more extremes and pace of change.

      Its going to be an interesting summer here in OZ.

      Reply ↓
    2. Yves Smith Post author

      That quote does not seem to be well informed.

      The towering mathematical talent Beniot Mandelbrot looked at the distribution of market prices, staring with commodities data for over 100 years. He found that they were random but not Gaussian (as an a normal distribution) but were Levy stable distributions with alphas of less than 2 (Gaussian distributions have an alpha of 2, which makes them tractible). They do have infinite variances:

      A probability distribution, with parameters α, β, c, and m (the mode). The parameter β (-1≤β≤1) determines the skewness, with β=0 corresponding to a distribution symmetric about m. The spread of the distribution depends on the value of c. The shape of the distribution depends on α (0 < α ≤ 2), with α = 2 corresponding to the normal distribution. The case α = 1 and β=0 corresponds to the Cauchy distribution. In general, the distribution has an infinite variance. The epithet ‘stable’ is a consequence of the property that (with m=0) any linear combination of random variables having this distribution will also have the distribution (with the same values for α, β, and c). Although the characteristic function for a general Lévy stable distribution is known, there is no general formula for the corresponding probability density function.

      https://www.oxfordreference.com/display/10.1093/oi/authority.20110803100102659

      Mandelbrot did his work in the early 1960s.

      I assume the special case of the Gaussian distribution does not have infinite variance, otherwise modelers would not use it as a bad proxy for market behavior.

      Reply ↓
  33. The Rev Kev

    ‘Arnaud Bertrand
    @RnaudBertrand
    Absolutely extraordinary exchange between Israel and China ?? I’ve never seen such a heated exchange come out of top-level forum in China (this is from the 12th Beijing Xiangshan Forum that started yesterday), this normally never happens. The guy speaking is Yan Xuetong, the dean of the Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua University, the most prestigious university in China. Speaking for Israel is a military officer apparently called Elad Shoshan.’

    You can tell that that IDF guy is frustrated. If that Dean had been from any western country, then he would lose his job, be canceled and face charges of antisemitism before the end of the day. But this Dean, being from a prestigious Chinese institute, can call the IDF guy out on his bs and he cannot do anything about it. Not even Trump can sanction this guy.

    Reply ↓
    1. skippy

      It really is a side show ….

      So the IDF guy is using the terrorist label, applied with a broad brush, too a whole indigenous ethic group, post Israel breaking every agreement/treaty since Balfour, funded Hamas via Qatar to oust the PLA, and set them up so it would vindicate liquidating the entire population so they could take it over …. without blinking an eye …

      Reply ↓
  34. ChrisPacific

    Thanks for quoting my comment on the H-1B situation.

    Regarding the ‘annual’ thing that found its way into some of the reports, this was apparently based on statements from [Sec. of Commerce] Howard Lutnick, who said the intention was for the $100,000 fee to apply annually but ‘the details are still being worked out’. There is nothing about that in the order itself, as you can see, and I’m not sure how that would even work (H-1Bs apply for three years, and once you have one I don’t see how you shake them down for another $100k the following year absent a law change).

    So if the media is reporting it badly that’s partly because there’s considerable ambiguity and confusion at the source (this seems to be a feature and not a bug for Trump, as usual). Here’s an updated example:

    Lutnick also repeatedly said on Friday that the fee would be annual for companies, while the White House official said Saturday that it’s a “one-time fee that applies only to the petition.”

    In her Saturday afternoon post, Leavitt clarified that the payment would only be a “one-time fee” — not an annual one.

    The order supports the latter read, but it’ll come down to what replaces it in 12 months, if anything.

    Reply ↓
    4. Ben Panga

      It’ll be very interesting to see if Kirk’s widow and new Turning Point leader is pro-Israel or closer to Kirk’s late life views.

      Reply ↓
      2. raspberry jam

        I don’t keep up on the personal lives of the punditry so unsure if she has demonstrated any prior political savviness, but pretty reliably the first line of defense on free thinking for someone public like this is the all expenses paid trip to Israel with an escorted trip to Jerusalem to ‘see the reality’*. So keep an eye out for that (or not) because Netanyahu will absolutely not miss the opportunity to parade her in front of the cameras to bolster his current ‘it wasn’t me’ claims.

        *: I have been subjected to a lower-profile version of this – I’m not a public figure so I didn’t get the press complement of course – there is an official tour guide trained to explain to you, the outsider, why things are the way they are there and every explanation they have comes back to ‘them against us’. My guide spent a lot of time ranting about the perfidy of Qatar after he had warmed up a bit, and this was the first time I was exposed to the ‘Qatar is behind everything’ meme over there. I was also being escorted by a Kahanist so it was like, double-barreled insanity. It is difficult to withstand this stuff unless you are already kind of used to navigating lies and bs with diplomacy (I am, it is part of my job) and practiced in critical thinking. So I don’t have high hopes for Kirk’s widow, I expect her to take the money and shut up.

        Reply ↓
  36. AG

    2 min. clip from THE INDEPENDENT´s conversation series.
    I have never seen this. And I almost never watch anything like this.

    Former MI6 Chief ‘worried’ Trump has bias that Russia has right to Ukraine due to its size
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/constantine-dobrowolski-nazi-spy-mi6-blaise-metreweli-b2778104.html

    But when I do encounter this sort of demeanor and level of idiocy of self-proclaimed elites I must confess I am all in with Martyanov´s diatribes and Russia- cheerleading. This is simply sick in such a profound way. No wonder Hitler had hoped to coalesce with GB. This is the sediment of Nazism as a form of imperialism. And it has to go. No question about it. And since it has been cultivated for 500 years it´s not gonna be easy and it´s not gonna be quick. And certainly not going away without resistance.

    Sometimes it´s curing to see such instances of megalomania, incompetence and suprematism cast in dialect, gestures, language, tonality. Politeness and a matter-of-factness which are mind-blowing. If the other side deems you not worthy there is nothing but force to make clear to them this far and no further. Otherwise they will never stop and never yield.
    Sigh.

    Reply ↓

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