Links 9/30/2025

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1. Alice X September 30, 2025 at 7:24 am

   >Here’s what is so different about the brewing government shutdown CNN

   Working link is here

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   1. Lee September 30, 2025 at 8:12 am

      Thanks for the link. A key point IMHO:

      One potential risk for the president is that a shutdown could create new disruption to an economy already challenged by his attempts to gut the independence of the Federal Reserve and by Trump’s price-raising tariff policies. For all the economy’s resilience, a long-term shutdown that hurts growth could further anger voters who thought Trump would make their lives less expensive and more secure.

      Assuming Trump fails to scapegoat the Dems for a shutdown, they might make electoral hay on this issue. Alas, all they seem to offer is a return to status quo ante, so maybe not.

      As to the upcoming elections, I recently purchased some local milkweed starters at a native plant nursery in Berkeley, and was advised to get them in the ground now and then trim them back in late November. The advice given by the nursery owner was, “I usually tell people to do it on election day”. I then asked her if I should trim them back if there is no election day. We shared a laugh.

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   2. Jason Boxman September 30, 2025 at 8:45 am

      This administration is feral; I fully expect them to carry out their threat to implement RIF and let the courts sort it out later. How many government employees will bother to come back, or stay, after being nuked from orbit? The goal, after all, Vought said, is to terrorize the federal workforce.

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2. Steve H. September 30, 2025 at 7:34 am

   Generals gathered in their masses

   Having a chit-chat about personal hygeine and signalling ethos is about fifth on my list of likely scenarios. Days where decades happen.

   Here’s the thing. Even If the stated reason is the reason, the contingency plans will be primed for operational. Has there ever been a bigger target than a megadose of general officers? Maybe the Manhattan Project, if all the brains were there at once. Stoo-pid doesn’t cover the concentration of resources in one spot. So if your job is to secure a military theater against immanent threat, and you are hauled around the planet to discuss your grooming, you have to assess the risks. And the biggest risk is the SecDef.

   That’s the best case scenario.

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   1. mrsyk September 30, 2025 at 9:43 am

      I’ve seen Inglorious Bastards.

      Im worried the all-Generals meeting signals an imminent hot war. Venezuela? Iran? Congo? Sudan? WW3?

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      1. t September 30, 2025 at 10:15 am

         Hoping the drunkard Sec of War was simply jealous of DJT’s UN speech and wanted his own special day.

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      2. Expat2uruguay September 30, 2025 at 10:49 am

         I expect that there will be a reduction in generals and further work on the reorientation to the Western hemisphere and the Homeland.

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         1. Steve H. September 30, 2025 at 11:31 am

            Pistol Pete: You Fat! No Girls!

            Trump: San Francisco and Chicago, New York, Los Angeles… We’ll straighten them out one-by-one. It will be a major part for some of the people in this room. It’s a war too. It’s a war from within.

            Trump: I’m gonna be meeting with generals and admirals and with leaders, and if I don’t like somebody, I’m gonna fire them right on the spot.

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            1. Wukchumni September 30, 2025 at 11:50 am

               U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth addressed nearly 800 generals and admirals at Marine Corps Base Quantico on Tuesday, unveiling a 10-point plan to refocus the military on warfighting by rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War. The reforms require all combat roles to meet the highest male physical standards, mandate twice-yearly fitness and weight assessments for every service member, and eliminate diversity quotas in promotions. President Donald Trump attended the summit and stated he would fire underperformers on the spot, reversing prior policies on gender integration and inclusivity.

               Who needs the 25th amendment when your Commander in Chief can’t make the weight assessment?

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            2. nippersdad September 30, 2025 at 12:24 pm

               I was just reading about that in Politico.

               https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5528730-trump-military-training-cities-crime-crackdown/

               That in conjunction with his recent order to investigate left leaning groups, reported the other day by Ken Klippenstien*, makes it look like he is getting ready to order martial law in the blue cities. As with any wannabe dictator he first needs to get the military onside, and that is what this looks like. Weeding out the ones who won’t sign the loyalty oath would be a first step.

               * https://www.kenklippenstein.com/p/trumps-nspm-7-labels-common-beliefs

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               1. raspberry jam September 30, 2025 at 1:08 pm

                  Trump, justifying domestic military action, tells Pentagon leaders to ‘handle’ the ‘enemy from within’ | Politico

                  “Inner cities are a big part of war,” Trump said, before criticizing Los Angeles, Portland, Seattle and Washington. “I will never hesitate to protect our people from the horrible plague that is taking place from within.”

                  He compared Portland to a “war zone” and floated that the military should use “dangerous” American cities as “training grounds,” calling on the Pentagon leaders to “handle” the “enemy from within … before it gets out of control.”

                  NGL I’ve been reading this and thinking about taking up smoking. This is insane!

                  ETA: President of the free world baybee. Ruled by imbeciles with a bunch of losers for an opposition party

                  The president’s speech touched on a number of other topics, including Biden’s use of the autopen, CNN, the Nobel Peace Prize and his hope that he’d never have to use nuclear weapons.

                  “I call it the N-word,” Trump said. “There are two N-words and you can’t say either of them.”

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                  1. amfortas September 30, 2025 at 5:16 pm

                     yet another datapoint in the yes column for Hunkerdown/Godark Mode.
                     as if i matters, at this point…NSA(waves) have known who i was since i was born, per my dad, the DIA image analysist.
                     (and the intertubes were spawned in DARPA,lol)

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         2. Robert Gray October 1, 2025 at 9:01 am

            Expat2
            > I expect that there will be a reduction in generals…

            As Douglas Macgregor likes to point out, in World War II the US had some 12 million men in uniform and seven 4-star officers. Today, with a military population of about one million, there are something like 50 4-stars.

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3. LY September 30, 2025 at 7:55 am

   I don’t see how the UK auto industry is viable. Brexit cut the industry off from its supply chain and from its largest market.

   Exporting a few cars to US and India can’t be enough. For the record, my Honda Civic hatchback is made in UK, the first model year Honda brought back the hatchback. Good car, but it’s now made in US.

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   1. Revenant September 30, 2025 at 8:03 pm

      UK car industry no worse than any EU car industry.

      This JLR shutdown has been curious from the start. No hysterical coverage in the MSM. No public lobbying of HMG. No political grandstanding. And now a sudden bailout with no discussion or opposition.

      Is the UK suddenly Singapore and run by mature and sensible, effective and consensual technocrats?

      Or is there something else going on?

      I note the Germans have excitedly decided to use their rearmament to give their car industry something new to make. Is the shutdown because JLR is stripping out lines to build something clandestine? Or is it because it is too embarrassing to admit JLR IT network owned by Russia / China / whoever.

      And, in other dogs that did not bark, what happened in Swindon when a “printers” belonging to a government services contracting group, appeared to explore and burn down with secondary detonations? Swindon was being feted for its concentration of drone production. Perhaps one drone too many…?

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4. Louis Fyne September 30, 2025 at 8:33 am

   >>>>Most people can learn basic math like arithmetic and some algebra – but beyond that, higher levels of math become increasingly abstract and technical,…

   Note: **much** beyond algebra. Anyone can learn 1st year calculus (with lots of work if their numeracy foundation is absent.)

   OP is talking about postdoc-level stuff that ia sometimes counter-intuitive like quantum physics.

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   1. NotTimothyGeithner September 30, 2025 at 10:33 am

      To me, this is all about the misconception that math is hard. It’s really easy, but it requires a fair amount of tedium at times.

      People really aren’t topping out as much as they weren’t as strong as they needed to be to move on.

      I use to volunteer to work with adult education programs, but every math interaction was the same: I must be brilliant because they never understood it until they met me. All we did was go back to where they were and work from there. Adults are easy because the ones who stay in those programs have good habits.

      Kids have conceptual blocks too, but they don’t have the vocabulary or life experience to articulate it.

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      1. Yves Smith Post authorSeptember 30, 2025 at 2:50 pm

         This is not at all the kind of math under discussion. This is theoretical math. Different category.

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         1. amfortas September 30, 2025 at 5:27 pm

            regardless, i reckon theres a category error in there, somewheres.
            long ago, i could do math in my head, and not have a clue how i came up with it…but ive devoted my mind to humanities and literature and soil science and whatnot…which has driven out my capacity(as the guy says) for dealing with the higher maths.
            i can do engineering and construction(look upon my works!)
            and the “answer” just kinda is there, as far as trig,load bearing,angles etc goes.
            one of the few regrets in my life is that i never got around to calculus, and whatever comes above that.
            and i therefore hafta rely on a narrative description of cosmology and the shape of reality, writ large.
            the scene in the Keanu version of the Klaatuu story where him and Cleese are “talking” via chalk equations makes me jealous,lol.
            ive learned a lot of languages, but i havent learned that one…and i doubt i ever will.

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   2. Li R September 30, 2025 at 4:56 pm

      Yeah, a good educational system can get most of the population to calc 2 level and teach the kids a bit of linear algebra & probability. I personally think that most people (who received a proper education + proper nutrition) won’t hit the abstraction limit until they’re at the end of a math undergraduate degree. People really underestimate their capacity for learning math. A family member tutored failing high school students and the kids did have the innate capacity to understand the subject matter. The problem was that they’d never really mastered arithmetic, and once the kid is out of the elementary level no one ever bothers to slow down or explain to them the basic concepts. This family member always started by giving the kids remedial lessons in multiplication, division, fractions, exponents, etc. Once the kids understood the properties of numbers + operations, algebra was a piece of cake. A solid foundation in algebra then allowed the kids to move easily through trig, pre-calc and then calculus. These were kids who had been declared incapable of doing mathematics by teachers/parents etc. Saying that most people don’t have the capacity to learn calc is insane.

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   3. ACPAL October 1, 2025 at 2:00 am

      In my experience I’ve found that people who can do higher math are convinced that if they can do it everyone can if they just try or have the right educators. That’s like saying everyone can be a Rembrandt or a Pavarotti or a Liberace. For millennia we’ve been genetically groomed as hunter/gatherers then farmers. Algebra was introduced in the last few thousand years and the general population has only been taught it in the last hundred years. Algebra requires an ability to understand and use abstraction and humans have not had much time for evolution to select for that. So to think that “everyone” these days can learn algebra is pure BS. (I’ve never had trouble with math myself but I have most of a century observing people in their natural habitats.)

      In all my years I have yet to see or hear of a study that determines at what age humans (not just children) learn to do all the things we ask of them. Nor have I heard of any study that categorizes what percentage of people have no aptitudes in things like art, mechanics, writing, and etc, I know there are many tests for aptitudes, usually related to work, but none which have been applied to K-12 curriculums.

      Which brings me to a pet peeve which is the K-12 curriculum itself. About half of what I learned has no use for most of us in the real world. I have a soda can sleeve that says “Another day without me using algebra even once.” Why does everyone have to learn it when the vast majority never use it? Why do we teach chemistry but not how to use it in our daily lives. Why do we teach anatomy but not first aid? Why do we spend at least a year on history when we only retain less that a tenth and even that has no bearing on our lives? If we want to know we can read it when the time comes. We’ll retain it a lot better.

      IMHO the entire education system, which assumes everyone is going to college for a scientific or engineering degree, has no basis in reality. The eggheads who run our education system need to get out of their plush offices, get to know real people, and adjust our education system to fit the real needs, not their delusions.

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5. Afro September 30, 2025 at 8:40 am

   We have been saying for years that Israel had a generational problem, that young Jews and young Americans were at best indifferent to Israel. That had been offset successfully for a while by stoking Zionism among Evangelicals. Too many photos of bony babies and news of Israel killing Christians looks finally to be turning that around.

   *******

   I wonder to what extent that matters if Israeli support remains high among the wealthy?

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   1. pjay September 30, 2025 at 9:18 am

      I think the extent that it still matters is illustrated by the furious efforts to control Tik-Tok and TPUSA. To your point, it is massive wealth that funds these efforts. But until we give up completely on our thin veneer of “democracy,” manufacturing some semblance of consent will still be necessary.

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      1. mrsyk September 30, 2025 at 9:54 am

         All that money doesn’t necessarily translate to effective. I’ll hazard that TPUSA is seeing its peak popularity in the rear view mirror. Gen Z ain’t buying. Next stop, just another lightly trafficked pro-Zionist talk show.

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   2. Kouros September 30, 2025 at 4:27 pm

      Daughter exposes senator dad’s trip to Israel
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7s1a-737kaU

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6. Jason Boxman September 30, 2025 at 8:42 am

   Brute force science

   Top A.I. Researchers Leave OpenAI, Google and Meta for New Start-Up (NY Times via archive.ph)

   Periodic Labs, which has secured over $300 million in seed funding from the venture capital firm a16z and others, has started its work at a research lab in San Francisco. But it plans to build its own lab in Menlo Park, Calif., where robots — physical robots — will run scientific experiments on a massive scale.

   The company’s researchers will organize and guide these experiments. As they do, A.I. systems will analyze both the experimentation and the results. The hope is that these systems will learn to drive similar experiments on their own.

   Just as neural networks can learn skills by pinpointing patterns in massive amounts of text, they can learn from other kinds of data, too, including images, sounds and movements. They can even learn from different kinds of data at the same time.

   By analyzing both a collection of photos and the captions that describe those photos, for example, a system can grasp the relationships between the two. It can learn that the word “apple” describes a round red fruit.
   At Periodic Labs, A.I. systems will learn from scientific literature, physical experimentation and repeated efforts to modify and improve these experiments.

   For instance, one of the company’s robots might run thousands of experiments in which it combines various powders and other materials in an effort to create a new kind of superconductor, which could be used to build all sorts of new electrical equipment.

   But will it know that a peach painted red is not an apple?

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   1. ilsm September 30, 2025 at 9:15 am

      Read Ed Zitron from the above link..

      OpenAI first half revenues hit $4.3 billion up 16%! They are soaking up hundreds of billions in capital…..

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      1. Jason Boxman September 30, 2025 at 9:40 am

         He does really go all-in though in his writing

         This is, for the third time this year, the longest newsletter I’ve ever written, weighing in somewhere around 18,500 words. I’ve written it specifically to be read at your leisure — dip in and out where you’d like — but also in one go.

         I admit to having given up at times, like Greenwald, he is laboriously thorough in his argumentation vastly beyond my patience level at times. Excellent discussion through of the issues at play. But this has always been the rub of the issue:

         These models showed some immediate promise in their ability to articulate concepts or generate video, visuals, audio, text and code. They also immediately had one glaring, obvious problem: because they’re probabilistic, these models can’t actually be relied upon to do the same thing every single time.

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         1. ilsm September 30, 2025 at 10:57 am

            “Probabilistic “ is the big concern, basic fault for use cases involving money or lives.

            Fad chasing gives it some short legs.

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         2. Acacia September 30, 2025 at 8:02 pm

            Yep, generally non-deterministic, which is also difficult from an engineering standpoint, since it means you can’t really say how long it takes to execute ergo how much power will be required for any given query. There are deterministic AI algos, but I gather LLMs are not one of them.

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      2. Mikel September 30, 2025 at 1:07 pm

         It’s not only an indictment against the bubble, but also of a corporate culture.

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   2. tegnost September 30, 2025 at 12:22 pm

      combines various powders and other materials in an effort to create a new kind of

      hmmm… lets see if nitro and glycerin go together well

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   3. matt September 30, 2025 at 12:32 pm

      need better chemical characterization methods as well as mechanical characterization methods – better chemical and touch sensors. giving the computers a nose somehow, which is a shockingly powerful characterization tool. even the ability to categorize chemical compounds in the air a little could be helpful, ie, making senors that can sense a certain family of compounds, then cross referencing between the chemical sensors and other sensors, like simple ones like sight or audio.
      it bothers me how computers are so limited to visual and audio data. there is so much more data out there, but we are limiting ourselves by limiting the computer’s umwelt to simple photonic/vibrational data. if i wasnt trapped in college getting my degree i would probably be more annoying about this.

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7. LY September 30, 2025 at 8:42 am

   I’ve been to Ingolstadt, about a decade ago. It was the only place I could get Bundesliga tickets that week on short notice. Easy rail access from Munich, and made a day trip out of it. Audi was very visible there, as the part owner of the soccer team and owning the soccer stadium, which seats about 15k. On the Danube river, there’s a military history for the city, reflected in the soccer team’s nickname Schanzer, which has something to do with fortifications. One of those fortifications hosts the Bavarian Army museum.

   Felt like a small regional city, so Audi and the troubles of its parent being felt so strongly is not surprising.

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   1. Louis Fyne September 30, 2025 at 9:20 am

      In “the good ol’days,” Audi/VW would source nearly 100% of Audi production from Ingolstadt.

      Then came the EU-accession of eastern Europe and US MBA practices. Drip-drip water torture of outsourcing of parts and assembly to Eastern Europe, then Mexico, India, etc.

      Ingolstadt’s imposion was long in the making. and like most chronic maladies, everything seems manageable until the doom-loop inflection point and the final acceleration into the wall

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      1. LY September 30, 2025 at 5:50 pm

         As part of the broader region, Ingolstadt is between Nuremberg (30 minutes train) and Munich (45 minutes train). What is left of auto, engineering, tech, etc. jobs are will consolidate near those cities.

         My field was telecom, and I know Nokia (via Siemens) and Apple (via Intel/Infineon) still have large centers in those aforementioned larger cities. I expect other corporations are similar.

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   2. Lazar September 30, 2025 at 4:43 pm

      Schanzer, which has something to do with fortifications.

      Yep. The term is existent in other languages too.
      https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schanze_(Festungsbau)
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sconce_(fortification)
      https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Шанец

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8. Jason Boxman September 30, 2025 at 8:54 am

   On math and proofs, I recall when I was trying to get a different job back in 2004, a counselor at the local community college suggested studying math, as his son had, as it can open all kinds of doors. I politely declined, not being the math type. Maybe my mistake. Programming is mostly just math and problem solving and logical thinking.

   Anyway, someone posted a link within the past year, the walk forward and backwards method of solving proofs, as a video lecture. I actually watched it. Fascinating stuff, in fact, and apparently solving proofs is as much art as science. You do need to have a pretty good understanding of mathematics to be able to create proofs, since if you don’t understand the relationships, your toolbox is completely empty.

   There’s actually a programming language for proofs

   Rocq Prover

   A trustworthy, industrial-strength interactive theorem prover and dependently-typed programming language for mechanised reasoning in mathematics, computer science and more.

   The Rocq Prover is an interactive theorem prover, or proof assistant. This means that it is designed to develop mathematical proofs, and especially to write formal specifications: programs and proofs that programs comply to their specifications. An interesting additional feature of Rocq is that it can automatically extract executable programs from specifications, as either OCaml or Haskell source code.

   Looks very serious.

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   1. Ken Murphy September 30, 2025 at 9:31 am

      Proofs are what got me in college. My freshman year I was stumbling into the unknown (my degreed boomer parents gave me effectively zero guidance) and after APing out of the first semester of Calc ended up in a class with a professor who talked to the board with an accent that sounded like a combo of German and Spanish. It was all about proofs. 20 to 30 step proofs and I just couldn’t follow. That first test was one of the most demoralizing things I’ve ever experienced.
      Ended up taking Business Calc. My skills improved, and I did end up with a magna cum laude for my Int’l Business & Economics degree, and a cum laude for my Space Studies degree, but it was a lot of work.
      My concern is that with the ridiculously high levels of innumeracy (and illiteracy) in the U.S., the citizenry is increasingly vulnerable to scams and cons and grifts and other flimflammery. That has a direct impact on our economy via misallocation of resources and decrease in trust. There are way, way too many shadows in the marketplace where sketchy activity is going on; we need a massive dose of sunlight in the marketplace to restore a vision of the -common-weal from our current focus on billionaireweal.

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      1. Jason Boxman September 30, 2025 at 9:36 am

         I remember my calc 2 professor, I lasted all of a few days; He’d said that half of you will be gone by the end of the semester, and I thought, why not? The initial assignment brought out all kinds of pie and e and whatever, constants that made familiar formulas look completely foreign. And we had to integrate these things. He was a no nonsense orthodox Jewish professor, middle aged. Also an ultimate frisbee player as it happens.

         That was my last foray into maths. It was a prerequisite class, so I changed majors.

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         1. Norton September 30, 2025 at 9:08 pm

            My Adv Calc and Linear Algebra visiting prof seemed to go out of her way to alienate students, including the occasional scream. Her mental instability contributed to a 75% decline in students over a term. Too bad because the material was interesting. She moved on.
            Contrast with the Calc prof who presented the material clearly and interacted well with students.

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      2. lyman alpha blob September 30, 2025 at 9:56 am

         That’s a valid concern about innumeracy. A math teacher friend used to get the standard high school question “Why do I have to learn this?” and I had a standing offer with her to go to her class and answer it for them – we live in a ruthless capitalist system and if you don’t at least learn basic math, those who do learn it are going to use it to rip you off for the rest of your life.

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         1. Ken Murphy September 30, 2025 at 12:23 pm

            Exactly!
            At my current job I make sure there are $2 bills and the big dollar coins in the tills. When kids pay with cash we’ll ask them what their change will be, and reward them with the funny money for trying, so it’s not so annoying. I’ll wave some bills in front of them and say “You like these? This is math.”
            I may get to go talk to some French students here in the not too distant future. Should be fun as I have many stories of why ca vaut la peine to learn a foreign language.

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         2. eg September 30, 2025 at 4:47 pm

            This was the essence of my explanation to my own children why they should learn basic math — to limit their exposure to exploitation.

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   2. Lefty Godot September 30, 2025 at 10:57 am

      “Programming is mostly just math and problem solving and logical thinking,” but the balance is 50% logical thinking, 45% problem solving, and maybe 5% math, for most business programming at least. The logical thinking part does require some Boolean algebra (like De Morgan’s laws) but more of it is specific to the business domain that your employers are involved in. And the biggest pitfall is letting your programming abstractions stray too much from what the physical realities of the business are. Very little of what I learned (or what I had to test my way through, to be more accurate) in college math courses ever got used in the decades of my programming career, in fields like medicine, manufacturing, marketing, and education. Dealing with date and time comparisons and range construction, never included in college CS, took up far more program design and debugging effort than any other math or scientific aspect of it.

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      1. matt September 30, 2025 at 12:36 pm

         i work in a computational research lab and while a lot of what the grad students do is math, a lot of it is also knowing the physical system. i wanna say that a lot of coding is pretty easy, but knowing what to code is difficult. at least in practical applications, engineering instead of theoretical algorithms.

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      2. Polar Socialist September 30, 2025 at 4:33 pm

         As a kid who was lucky enough to be caught in the New Math wave and be taught set theory in the elementary school I did have a sort of epiphany later in my life when I cut my teeth in functional programming – absolute majority of coding is mere manipulating sets of values.

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         1. Santo de la Sera September 30, 2025 at 11:48 pm

            I also learned set theory in elementary school not at the time I could never understand the point. Later on I was in a grad level course where we were using set theory in designing algebraic systems, and the professor commented on how teaching set theory to children is the equivalent of teaching philosophy to children: in both cases they don’t have the background to make use of what they’ve learned.

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            1. Acacia October 1, 2025 at 12:51 am

               I had the same experience. It wasn’t under university that I finally “got” it.

               In about 15 minutes, the professor explained objects, morphisms, and how set theory was intended to bring together all the different parts of mathematics. In a flash, it all became clear. He also added: “of course, everybody in the disciple knows that public school curriculum in the US has completely failed to teach this to young people…”.

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               1. hk October 1, 2025 at 1:15 am

                  So I was not the only one who had the moment of epiphany with set theory….

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   3. raspberry jam September 30, 2025 at 11:54 am

      I know two US math PhD’s and both went to work for the NSA in the mid aughts. None in tech, surprisingly, although I’d be surprised if the big crypto companies didn’t employ more than a few.

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9. Ksum Nole September 30, 2025 at 8:57 am

   UK government will underwrite £1.5bn loan guarantee to Jaguar Land Rover after cyber-attack Guardian.

   Yea, a cyber-attack in the form of complete Jaguar reboot/rebrand/rework/rewhatverver. Some were speculating that the whole Jaguar mess was intentional.

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   1. Louis Fyne September 30, 2025 at 9:41 am

      >>>>Some were speculating that the whole Jaguar mess was intentional

      insert aphorism about idiocy looking like intended malice. And a degree from XYZ MBA school is not a vaccine from idiocy.

      lmao, i’ve been through lots of excruciating chit-chat with credentialed peeps

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10. lyman alpha blob September 30, 2025 at 9:02 am

    Very appropriate juxtaposition of the language and math links near the top today. I do believe language shapes one’s reality, and I also maxed out my math abilities as an undergrad. I found math to be very easy in high school to the point I could do most problems in my head. My teachers were critical when I didn’t write out all the steps I took to get the answer. I couldn’t see why that was a problem as long as the answer was correct. I struggled with differential equations in college but had a great professor, so was able to get that far, but my experience was much as Hofstadter described. Then came a more abstract course and I really struggled to the point that I dropped the class and math as a major. It wasn’t until a few years later that I realized the problem – because I didn’t show my work, I never adequately learned the language of math, so wasn’t able to comprehend the reality that the more complex math was describing. Advice for any younger math students out there – show your work even if you don’t need to. It will pay off in the long run.

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    1. CanCyn September 30, 2025 at 10:32 am

       This is so true. I found school relatively easy and was often bored in class. With no burning desire to do anything in particular and no special interests to spur me on to college, during the last couple of years of high school, I really wanted to quit. I did eventually get to university and become a librarian in my late 20s. In high school though, I couldn’t grasp the need to know things like algebra. My parents would tell me that school was like exercise for my brain, that going through the motions was good for me. And they’d claim that I was lucky that it was easy. I didn’t believe them at the time but now I am blown away by how much they understood about the developing brain without having had any science or biology post graduate education. We do need to work through word problems and math exercises and read increasingly difficult material. Especially when we’re young, our brain needs to learn how to think and reason. Early rote learning was also important. We have let all this slide in today’s approach to education and it clearly shows in many youngster’s inability to problem solve or try something even though they might get it wrong at first.

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       1. Wukchumni September 30, 2025 at 12:03 pm

          I wowed ’em by learned the multiplication tables in the first grade, and then rested on my laurels. Everything I did in life was add, subtract or multiply. Didn’t need a lot of algebra or calculus when pitching aged round metal discs.

          Reply ↓
    2. matt September 30, 2025 at 12:50 pm

       well math notation is really its own language. im currently in my first 600 level math class (wahoo!) and the professor has thrown a lot of math notation at me that i just had to pick up on, as i hadn’t been exposed to it much in my undergrad coursework. set theorists have their own notation different from calculus, and it’s been a bit of a pain figuring out what ∈, ⊆, ∀, etc means in the middle of lecture. we have spent 2 classes now on notation and defining things. handwriting and accents make communication issues worse. i’m an american student explaining what my french professor is saying in his french accent to my chinese friend who has not taken a math course in years.
       and then you have to deal with every field having its own notation for the same thing. for example, physicists, mathematicians, and computer scientists all use different notation for the hermitian. i am coming into this math stuff from a chemistry angle, and i’m used to a notation when defining initial conditions. i dont even want to get started on the horrors of chemistry notation, where you will have multiple terms all named “k” but they all mean different things, and you just have to know what each variable is supposed to mean it’s not explicitly stated.
       the professor i work under is always talking about the communication issues between disciplines. one of the grad students also likes to complain about computational chemists and how they never use advanced algorithms because they’re afraid or something. there’s just so many communication barriers that you have to overcome before you can do any math and science.
       tldr, learning advanced math means learning a whole new language essentially. it is like learning how to write in cyrillic when all you know is latin script.

       Reply ↓
    3. antidlc September 30, 2025 at 2:31 pm

       Math major here.

       I never understood why differential equations was considered the “make or break” class. I found it pretty straightforward, although the calculations were quite long. (This was before fancy calculators.) I had an excellent teacher. I took it over the summer and that’s about all I did that summer.

       The only problem I had was in calculus with solids of revolution. I had difficulty visualizing 3D. I got by simply by working as many problems as I could and hoped that on the test I could recognize the problem from something I previously worked. Got an “A” in the class. Whew!

       Reply ↓
       1. Yves Smith Post authorSeptember 30, 2025 at 2:53 pm

          I saw learning calculus as an ugly necessity, I was not all that interested in it (and I happen to be good at 3D, can mentally rotate objects, may be compensation for not seeing in 3D). It’s the stuff after that that is where math gets intriguing. But you arein classes with kids who were prodigies, and the profs grade you against the history of math. Very very depressing. Air gets thin fast and you become aware of your limits. I also didn’t start young enough. If I had been force fed math and done at 13 what I did at 16….

          But again, pure math is not at all like applied math. Everyone here seems to be discussing applied math.

          And like my French, I have forgotten most of what I knew back then…

          Reply ↓
          1. antidlc September 30, 2025 at 3:57 pm

             Abstract algebra was fun.

             Reply ↓
          2. Alice X September 30, 2025 at 10:05 pm

             Although I thought I understood its meaning when I went through it, with a B, calculus 101, I can only wonder if it had a part in a universalist world view.

             Reply ↓
    4. marku52 September 30, 2025 at 3:27 pm

       In engineering, always include the units in your calculation items. It will sort out if you have multed when you should have divved. you’d end up with an answer in a nonsensical unit.

       Reply ↓
    5. hk October 1, 2025 at 1:51 am

       I didn’t teach “math,” but I did teach game theory, so I sort of taught math.

       The one thing that generated a lot of howl, including (which I found absolutely infuriating) from poli sci grad students (at a not so great but still a flagship state u) was that I not only demanded that they show all the steps, but that I actually filled in all the steps myself while grading (including alternate steps they could have taken instead) and graded their work solely on the steps. (I didn’t care if they didn’t get the right answer as long as all the steps worked out and the mistakes that led to wrong answers were obvious–surprising number of people mix up numbers, which I could understand since I’m rather dyslexic and those mistakes are rather common on my end also.). One problem was that, and this was especially true with the graduate students, was that they were interested in selling a point and the mathy moving parts are there just as decorations–and, to be fair, this is how the field often works (and most people in academia try for middling publications where they peddle hackneyed but fashionable points in pretty dress, not genuine insights–which, besides difficult, one can’t easily evaluate anyways).

       Reply ↓
11. Jason Boxman September 30, 2025 at 9:02 am

    A Green Beret’s Confession Outraged the Military. Then He Found an Ally in Trump. (NY Times via archive.ph)

    Every war produces its own kind of hero. World War II had the everyman G.I.; Korea, its fighter-jet ace. The Persian Gulf war is remembered for best-and-brightest generals like Norman Schwarzkopf and Colin Powell. During the 20 years of warfare waged in Afghanistan, Iraq and elsewhere around the world, the operator became the iconic American fighter.

    In response to the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, teams of Special Forces and C.I.A. operatives rode through Afghanistan on horseback, rallying local militias and calling in airstrikes to swiftly topple the Taliban and scatter Al Qaeda. It was a moment of glory in the long cultural and political ascent of U.S. Special Operations. Although they constituted only 3 percent of the armed forces, the operators would shoulder a disproportionate share of the fighting over the course of America’s longest war, at one point accounting for half of all casualties. Their exploits, often classified yet at times heavily publicized by the military, would permeate the nation’s culture, inspiring Hollywood blockbusters like “American Sniper,” “Lone Survivor” and “Zero Dark Thirty.” The weapons and tactics they favored were picked up by law enforcement and used to market an industry of podcasts, fitness programs and paramilitary gear.

    But there was a dark side to that heroism: the legal and moral lines the operators had to approach, or even cross, in their battle with the terrorists. “We do bad things to bad people,” went the motto of one Special Forces battalion. This vigilante streak is what most distinguishes the operators from previous generations of heroes and sets them at odds with the military’s traditional insistence on discipline and law.

    (bold mine)

    War comes home.

    With Trump’s domestic terrorism decrees, it might find an even greater outlet of expression upon Americans.

    Reply ↓
    1. erstwhile September 30, 2025 at 10:18 am

       ‘With Trump’s domestic terrorism decrees,’ falls now so easily into general discourse that it’s a given. It’s not. We don’t have to live in a world where some a-hole like trump gets to get his jollies off by prancing around like he’s the chosen one. He’s contemptible and he has power because he, and a powerful cadre of like minded people, have seized it. But, keep in mind, that real power belongs to all of us, and that civil acts like a general strike, and calls for peace and effective public disobedience, and yes, violence, exist in the future. The policies of the chosen one are leading this country into unimaginable suffering and deprivation. Enough people will no longer abide it. Every dog will have its day, and the time will come for that dog to bite, and to bite fiercely, and without remorse.

       You’re absolutely right. The wars are now home.

       Reply ↓
12. AG September 30, 2025 at 9:14 am

    re: John Helmer
    
    WHEN TOMAHAWK MEETS BEAR, THE HAZEL TREE (ORESHNIK) WINS
    https://johnhelmer.org/when-tomahawk-meets-bear-the-hazel-tree-oreshnik-wins/

    Reply ↓
    1. ilsm September 30, 2025 at 11:18 am

       Trump has too few Typhon batteries to “sell” to Merz to train up and sell the German populated batteries to Zelenskyy to fire using top secret US intel/targeting to terror bomb Russian civilians.

       The sole fact that makes this not scary is Russia doesn’t want big war.

       No impact on front!

       Reply ↓
       1. AG September 30, 2025 at 10:38 pm

          “Trump has too few Typhon batteries to “sell” to Merz to train up and sell the German populated batteries to Zelenskyy to fire using top secret US intel/targeting to terror bomb Russian civilians.”

          In how far does that matter for the bottom-line?

          There is also the performative issue and Tomahawks´ actual effectivity, that is against RU AD.
          In Syria 70% were shot down, by much older systems.
          We don´t know Russian General Staff´s views naturally.

          But it´s not imagineable that Russians would let Moscow be hit the case Mark Sleboda also discusses in below videos. Oreshnik as an intermediate strategic stage he interestingly does not address at all. He sees exclusively nuclear war looming. But the new non-nuclear systems were also developed for the very reason to choke Western jumpy escalation logic. So there is a blank spot in Sleboda´s scenarios.

          In his view it´s of course not even about the Tomahawk´s degree of capability but the proverbial trigger to force the Russians to step back from total nuclear holocaust. Just a means so to speak.

          So much more sinister take but also more long-term, Mark Sleboda in 2 parts:
          
          Some in US & European Blob & Elite Are ‘Dying For World War 3: US Directs Strikes On Russian Territory/Prelude To Nuclear War: Why Trump Will Be Forced To Enter Ukraine War To Back Europe
          Parts 1 & 2 of my latest discussion with Jamarl Thomas 29/09/25
          20 + 34 min.
          https://marksleboda.substack.com/p/some-in-us-and-european-blob-and

          Reply ↓
       2. AG October 1, 2025 at 6:35 am

          “In how far does that matter for the bottom-line?”
          My question sounds strangely unfriendly the way I put it but it was actually intended as a genuine one.

          Reply ↓
13. JohnA September 30, 2025 at 9:14 am

    Re UK government will underwrite £1.5bn loan guarantee to Jaguar Land Rover after cyber-attack

    Jaguar is now owned by Tata Motors part of the multinational Tata Group. The idea that Tata could not get a loan from some bank or indeed have any kind of cyber attack insurance policy is pretty mindblowing. Simply another case of socialism for the rich, austerity for common people.
    Incidentally, Jaguar was originally a middle class kind of car marque – known as the gin and jag set, whose natural home was golf clubs in the stockbroker belt around London. Of course, the company went all Bud Light/Mullan Dulvany a while back with a crazy rebranding campaign. But that is another story.

    Reply ↓
    1. TimH September 30, 2025 at 2:40 pm

       It’s about ensuring that the JLR facilities stay in UK, so a bribe if you like.

       I suspect unecessary, because the UK plants provide a Britishness to the brand which is likely important for sales. The cars haven’t been anything special for years IMHO, the 2000s era S-type being a very nice car when I owned one.

       Reply ↓
14. AG September 30, 2025 at 9:16 am

    re: Germany war etc.

    German-Foreign-Policy-Blog
    machine-translation

    The Drone Crisis (I)
    In the conflict with Russia over military flights through NATO airspace and drone flights over Danish military bases, NATO is expanding its Baltic Sea operations. Berlin is eyeing the creation of a “drone wall” in the east.

    30 Sep 2025

    BERLIN/BRUSSELS (Own report) – NATO is intensifying its Baltic Sentry mission in the Baltic Sea and is considering converting its air policing in the Baltics into a regular military operation. The consequences would be stricter rules of engagement and a further escalation of the situation in the region. This is NATO’s response, on the one hand, to Russian military aircraft allegedly crossing the airspace over the territory of NATO member Estonia, and, on the other, to drone flights over airports and military bases in Denmark. In the recent past, Denmark has deployed US medium-range missile launchers to Bornholm on several occasions as part of military exercises. The medium-range weapons could easily reach Russia. In Germany, a member of the federal government is now also advocating for the shooting down of Russian military aircraft flying in the airspace over NATO states. In light of drone flights over Danish military bases, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is demanding that the Baltic Sea be closed to Russian ships in principle. Berlin is pushing forward the debate on a “drone wall” to counter drones.

    https://archive.is/eian7

    Reply ↓
15. William Beyer September 30, 2025 at 9:24 am

    I have a dumb question: Was there any media coverage of the Ryan Routh trial other than the announcement of the verdict? I see many stories here and elsewhere, but never saw a single report on the trial. Or, did I just miss it?

    Reply ↓
    1. Louis Fyne September 30, 2025 at 11:08 am

       No. best case the coverage was non-obvious at the NYT, buried within the website under tetiary directories.

       And peeps wonder why >30% of the country has zero trust in NYC-edited media.

       Reply ↓
    2. CitizenGuy September 30, 2025 at 9:10 pm

       It was a federal trial, if I’m not mistaken, and so I suspect it was a closed one as well, probably on national security grounds.

       Sounds like a helluva display. Routh tried to stab himself in the neck with a pencil.

       Reply ↓
16. Acacia September 30, 2025 at 10:19 am

    Re: Young Moroccans clash with police …

    Relatedly, the new film worth seeking out is SIRÂT (2025), being a Spanish-French coproduction that got the jury prize at Cannes.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_HvwhOY63Ig

    At first blush, it’s the story of a father and son who travel to a rave party in a remote desert, searching for family members who disappeared under mysterious circumstances. It’s set in Morocco and beautifully captures the landscape of the North African desert.

    But the story becomes very intense — this film is not for the faint of heart. What at first appears to be a descent into the global rave scene proves to be a meditation on war, politics, and escape.

    Recommended.

    Reply ↓
    1. Martin Oline September 30, 2025 at 7:11 pm

       Thank you Acacia for this recommendation.

       Reply ↓
17. t September 30, 2025 at 10:22 am

    YouTube may also just be giving Trump go away money.

    It’s possible discovery could be an issue – and YouTube is either very very bad at copyright strikes and demonitization, or else applies them pretty selectively.

    Hard to say. The speed with which a large org will just settle when they have a fairly easy when has always surprised me. (Not that they have an easy win here, I don’t know the specifics and have never discussed with a lawyer.)

    Reply ↓
    1. FlyoverBoy September 30, 2025 at 7:07 pm

       My theory exactly. Google owns YouTube, and Google just escaped the antitrust axe. They’re simply paying off Trump, exactly as ABC (Stephanopoulus’s “libel”) and CBS/Redstone (60 Minutes’ “libel”) did.

       Reply ↓
18. Victor Sciamarelli September 30, 2025 at 10:25 am

    A flaw within democracy and Israeli society are two more reasons the Gaza peace deal will fail. Norman Finkelstein spoke with Katie Halper.
    NF: (38:30) “The problem is not Netanyahu, it’s not Netanyahu, Ben-Gvir, and Smotrich. The problem is that this is not a state project. It’s a national project. It’s the whole of Israeli Jewish society.”
    “And we know from all the poll results, this is a project which is the extermination of the people of Gaza. It’s a project embraced by probably, if you look at the polls consistently for two years, 95% of Israeli Jews believed Israel was using either not enough force or sufficient force in Gaza. Only 5% believed Israel was using too much force. And then there are all the polls pointing to the genocidal nature of Israel society in terms of what they’re advocating in Gaza.
    KH: Haim Bresheeth-Zabner, who wrote a book “An Army Like No Other” about the IDF…”He Says, “that this genocide is the most democratic genocide ever.”
    NF: I think that’s totally correct. It’s not only the most democratic, it’s actually the most shameless. Now, obviously there are points of similarity, points of difference between this genocide and preceding ones….
    Israel broadcasts it, they’re very flagrant about it. They post it on social media. They’re very proud of it.There’s no shame. So, it’s not only the most public genocide, it’s also the most shameless genocide. There is no shame at all among the Israelis about what they’re doing there. There isn’t even a cognizance that you’re supposed to feel ashamed of what you’re doing.”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pnarodQ47pw

    Reply ↓
    1. ArvidMartensen September 30, 2025 at 5:21 pm

       Then Trump blathers on, threatening hell on Hamas if they don’t sign his plan. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/sep/30/hamas-mulls-options-as-countries-rush-to-welcome-trump-gaza-peace-plan

       How much effect does this have on a people who have been bombed to hell already? We are now at the stage of asymptotically approached 100% of hell.

       Reply ↓
    2. Acacia September 30, 2025 at 7:18 pm

       From time to time, we hear about Israelis protesting against Netanyahu. Where do they fit into this?

       Reply ↓
       1. hk September 30, 2025 at 7:52 pm

          There were conspiracies in high places against Hitler, even aming the Nazis. After havibg read and thought about these for years, I came to conclusion that being anti Hitler or even anti Nazi made most of these the good guys. AJP Taylor, among others, pointed out that the peculiar evils of the Nazis blind us to the real problem(s) that led to WW2: the problem of German state power, location, and the distribution of German populations. Indeed, Taylor practically wrote that, by being able to place the blame on the evils of the Nazis we wilfully blinded ourselves to the many problems between Germany and its neighbors that almost certainly would have led to a conflict regardless of who ruled in Berlin–well, everyone except Stalin, whose ruthless ethnic cleansing and other actions removed a lot of fuel for these conflicts for the future.

          I see much the same problem about Israel. The Israeli national project, as was originally and continues to be conceived, is as incompatible with peace with its neighbors as the Sudeten or Corridor Germans were with long term peace between Germany and Czechia/Poland. Like the Sudetens, moreover (Sudetens were more “Nazi,” on per capita basis, than any other regional German grouping, I believe–I think this really means that they were more supranationalist and warlike, rather than subscribing to the “finer” points of Nazi theorizing.) the Jews in occupied territories are more fanatical than others, and since Israel itself is more like Sudetenland than the rest of Germany in the interwar years, I’d imagine they are more likely to be more fanatical than their German counterparts, the argument probably applies to all of Israel, too. Well, Stalin was alone in seeing that the solution to the Sudeten problem was that the Sudetens forcibly become Bavarians–I suppose the other “solution” would have been that there would be no more Czechs and Poles. Given the current trajectory, I wonder if there can be a different solution to the Neusudetenland or Neuschlesien or whatever.

          Reply ↓
          1. Acacia September 30, 2025 at 8:30 pm

             Following that analogy, the opposition to Netanyahu would be more aligned with the 95% that Finkelstein mentions.

             However, some recent readings of this matter suggest that more are starting to realize that the damage to Israel may be severe and long-lasting, e.g.:

             Are Israeli views shifting on the war in Gaza?
             https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/the-world-today/2025-09/are-israeli-views-shifting-war-gaza

             A poll by the Israeli Democracy Institute carried out last month suggested that about two-thirds of the public support a deal with Hamas and the end of the war. The overwhelming majority on the left were in favour of such a deal, while the right was divided.

             Most Israelis say end Gaza war, prioritize hostages, hold leaders accountable – poll
             https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-869000

             The poll found that 66% of Israelis believe the time has come to stop the fighting, up from 53% at the same point last year.
             […]
             The findings also show widespread public demand for accountability. Nearly two-thirds of Israelis said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should resign — 45% immediately, and another 19% after the war ends. A strong majority, 74%, favored establishing a state commission of Inquiry into the failures surrounding October 7.

             And in the US… many articles about this now:

             ‘Stunning Reversal’: New York Times Poll Finds US Support for Israel Has Plummeted
             https://www.commondreams.org/news/us-polling-israel

             “Though this was utterly unthinkable even five years ago,” said one journalist, “it’s now reflected in poll after poll, and is so entrenched it’s hard to imagine it can be reversed.”
             […]
             Thirty-five percent expressed sympathy with the Palestinian side, while 34% said they support Israelis and 31% said they were unsure or had equal sympathy for both sides.

             Upshot: polls suggest that a majority of USians now side with the Palestinian cause.

             It’s a very slim majority, but there’s inertia driving it so we can probably expect an increase.

             Reply ↓
             1. hk October 1, 2025 at 2:16 am

                I suspect that abstract preferences will not survive encounter with reality. Even if Israelis decided that they want to “negotiate,” what do they think that means? Europeans (and Z) say they want to negotiate with Russia–as long as they dictate all the terms and the subhumans don’t talk back. And we are far from even that point (in the sense that we won’t see Israeli government wanting to negotiate with Hamas, regardless of the public opinion. “Eventually” can be a very long time: we may never get there.

                Reply ↓
                1. Acacia October 1, 2025 at 2:58 am

                   Agree. And I expect we’ll soon get some interation of this from Trump.

                   Meanwhile, the bombing/killing/starvation will continue.

                   Reply ↓
       2. Alice X September 30, 2025 at 10:10 pm

          There are no protests against the genocide.

          Reply ↓
    3. Alice X September 30, 2025 at 10:13 pm

       Thank you, I could only see the pro bono offering. I cherish them all.

       Reply ↓
19. t September 30, 2025 at 10:26 am

    In other Covid news, many US CVS stores have Novavax. You need to call several local stores. Even if the website lists it as an available vaccine, I don’t know anyone who’s seen it as an option for an online appointment.

    Called ahead for mine. The system said I wasn’t eligible but the helpful pharmacy tech
    used input voodoo to make me eligible.

    Reply ↓
20. Acacia September 30, 2025 at 10:30 am

    This year in Japan, so-called “resignation agencies” have become very popular.

    They provide a service that people retain to quit their job, in order to avoid being berated or threatened for attempting to leave the company.

    You pay the agency about USD $150 and they handle everything “100% guaranteed”

    One of these agencies says they get 1800 requests each month — that’s about 60 (!) people every day.

    Their ad is pretty much nuts: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xQcqaTKFuY

    The company name MOMURI is a play on the Japanese phrase mou muri — “I can’t take it any more”.

    Reply ↓
    1. mrsyk September 30, 2025 at 12:56 pm

       Musical interlude, Johnny Paycheck.

       Reply ↓
    2. Lazar September 30, 2025 at 5:03 pm

       Their ad is pretty much nuts: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xQcqaTKFuY

       Looks llike regular music video to me. :) NIce bass. Without vocals, sounds like something UK made.

       Reply ↓
21. Jason Boxman September 30, 2025 at 10:51 am

    MAGA continues apace

    Consumer confidence is lower than expected as Wall Street braces for shutdown data blackout (CNBC)

    Consumer confidence edged lower in September ahead of an expected data blackout caused by the looming federal government shutdown, the Conference Board reported Tuesday.

    The board’s headline confidence index registered a 94.2 reading, off 3.6 points from the August reading and below the Dow Jones estimate for 96.0. The reading was the lowest since April and comes with nonessential government operations slated to close at midnight.

    In addition to the weakness on the main reading, the “present situation” index hit its lowest in a year.

    But

    After Volatile Summer, Trump’s Approval Remains Low but Stable, Poll Finds (NY Times via archive.ph)

    President Trump’s efforts to send National Guard troops to big cities, punish media organizations and pressure universities and private businesses are all unpopular with voters.

    But the continued torrent of policies and tactics has not further weakened Mr. Trump’s overall standing, according to a new poll from The New York Times and Siena University. Instead, Mr. Trump continues to retain the support of roughly nine out of 10 Republican voters.

    …

    Republicans are increasingly giving Mr. Trump credit for making the economy better — 67 percent said so now, compared with 47 percent in April. At the same time, the broader electorate’s views on the nation’s economic conditions are still sour.

    Only 26 percent said the conditions were even good, though that low level represents a slight uptick from 22 percent in the last Times/Siena poll in April.

    MAGA is working!

    To those 67%, I’d say: Better how? I’ll wait.

    About half of Republicans, 51 percent, now say Mr. Trump’s policies have helped them personally, up from 36 percent in April. And 32 percent of voters overall now say he has improved the economy, up from 21 percent in April. The figure remains low overall because independents believe by a 20-point margin that Mr. Trump has made matters worse.

    Reply ↓
22. Lazar September 30, 2025 at 10:58 am

    #TIL
    First shooting-down of an aeroplane by anti-aircraft artillery was on September 30, 1915.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_in_World_War_I#First_shooting-down_of_an_aeroplane_by_anti-aircraft_artillery
    https://www.historyandheadlines.com/september-30-1915-airplanes-can-be-shot-down-from-the-ground/

    Reply ↓
    1. Alice X September 30, 2025 at 10:42 pm

       Grim, how the nation-states have vied.

       Reply ↓
23. Louis Fyne September 30, 2025 at 11:16 am

    comical AI rant of the day….

    so I get a pop-up that my nation-wide grocery store’s app now has “AI.” woot! (not).

    OK, i query the AI: “list vegetables sale”

    Numbers 1 and 2 on the generated list: “veggie Cheerios”, number 3/4 fruit-veg smoothies.

    Skynet and a really incompetent management team lose this round, lmao.

    Reply ↓
    1. mrsyk September 30, 2025 at 1:02 pm

       Lol, no special on ketchup?

       Reply ↓
24. Anthony Kenneth Wikrent September 30, 2025 at 11:34 am

    Regarding a two state solution, or creation of a Palestinian state – the religious zealotry of Zionists has reached an extreme level that makes it impossible, in the foreseeable future, for a Palestinian state to be created in either Gaza or the West Bank. And, up to now, the government of Egypt has steadfastly refused to consider giving part of the Sinai to the Palestinians so that refuges can be sheltered, let alone a Palestinian state created.

    I wonder if the Egyptian government can be swayed from this position if the world community came together to finance and implement a US$ 1 trillion plan in which the northeastern tip of the Sinai, immediately adjacent to Gaza, were bought from Egypt, and in which a new Palestinian state can be built.

    Egypt has been struggling financially for a number of years. The external debt of Egypt was $162.93 as of the end of 2022. On March 29, 2024, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that it had approved an additional new loan of US$5 billion to Egypt, subject to the usual IMF terms and conditionalities. A sale of a small part of the Sinai as part of this US$1 trillion proposal would allow Egypt to get out from under its external debt, and free itself from the IMF terms and conditionalities.

    The Gaza strip was home to 2.4 million people, and is 365 square kilometers km2 (141 square miles). The West Bank Is home 2.9 million people, and is 5,655 square kilometers (2,183 square miles).

    Egypt’s Sinai peninsula is about 60,000 square kilometers (23,000 square miles), but home to only 600,000 people. About one third of these live in the capital and largest city in Sinai, ʻArish or el-ʻArīsh. The population of this city was reportedly 164,830 in 2012. ʻArish is located 344 kilometers northeast of Cairo, and 45 kilometers west of the Egypt-Gaza border. Most of the remainder of the population of Sinai are located in the south, in the coastal and tourist areas along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aqaba. This means that the northeastern part of Sinai, adjacent to Gaza and southwestern Israel, is very sparsely populated. With minimal displacement of residents, it may be a suitable, least painful location for the creation of a Palestinian state.

    $1 trillion to purchase a small part of Sinai is not that outlandish – Saudi Arabia has a $3 trillion plan to move their economy off dependence on oil and become a high-tech hub for global business. This includes the megaproject of building the new city of Neom over an area of 26,500 km2 (10,200 square miles) at the northern tip of the Red Sea, due east of Egypt across the Gulf of Aqaba and south of Jordan. The estimated cost for building Noem exceeds $8.8 trillion.

    So, could $1 trillion induce Egypt to cede part of Sinai? Say, around 4,300 square kilometers, in the northeast of Sinai, adjacent to Gaza and Israel. That is about two fifths the area of Lebanon, and about ten percent larger than the USA state of Rhode Island. It is nearly 12 times the size of Gaza, but only one fifth the size of Israel. And 4,300 square kilometers is only 14 percent of Sinai’s 60,000 square kilometers.

    Of course, this would have to be done over Israel’s strenuous objections and resistance. But what other solutions are there?

    Reply ↓
    1. raspberry jam September 30, 2025 at 5:10 pm

       The Kahanists and hard right Zionists whine about how they cannot ‘reward’ the Palestinans for terror by giving them a state, and polling has shown that a majority of polled sample sets of ‘normal’ Israelis agree with this hard line position. So why would setting up a Palestinian state on the Israeli border be more acceptable to them? Some of the whack jobs trying to secure Greater Israel think that includes at least part of the Sinai.

       Reply ↓
    2. hk September 30, 2025 at 7:56 pm

       Why can’t Germsny cede Israel Bavaria in return for Israel ceding Palestine to Palestinians, or US ceding New Jersey for the same? For that matter, why wouldn’t France cede Madagascar so that Germany didn’t have to resort to mass murder?

       Reply ↓
25. AG September 30, 2025 at 11:42 am

    re: NATO´s predictions about Russian attack 2029

    This is a comprehensive piece of propaganda by Germany´s major news show´s blog, TAGESSCHAU (“Daily News”)

    machine-translation

    Where does the Russia forecast for 2029 come from?
    September 24, 2025

    Russia could be capable of attacking NATO territory by 2029, warn German Defense Minister Pistorius and senior military officials. But where does this forecast come from, and what information is it based on?
    https://archive.is/ZDnid

    “(…)
    Why exactly this year?
    (…)
    According to WDR information, the assumption referred to by Defense Minister Pistorius and now several Bundeswehr representatives is based on a NATO Joint Threat Assessment, a joint threat analysis developed in 2023 by a working group within the defense alliance. Around a dozen NATO countries, particularly those with reconnaissance satellites, participated. The working group analyzed the Russian arms industry, the war economy, and the reorganization of the Russian armed forces.
    (…)
    The conclusion: Russia will likely not only be able to compensate for the personnel and material losses in Ukraine in the coming years, but even rearm.
    (…)
    via spy satellites: Russia’s military is building new bases in the western districts bordering Finland and the Baltic states and modernizing existing facilities, including nuclear weapons bases.
    (…)
    Railway connections are being expanded there to enable the deployment of ballistic missiles within half an hour in the event of war.
    (…)”

    Just like with US legacy media output coordinated with the CIA or SoS here the truth too is addressed in the very end of a longer piece.

    Little enthusiasm at the BND
    (…)
    Firstly, because they say that concrete predictions, especially with reference to specific dates, are generally difficult to make in such contexts.
    (…)”

    As another negative example it mentions the BND´s alleged failure to predict the collapse in Afghanistan or its incorrect claim that Assad would be ousted in 2012.
    (I do not know but I would not be surprised if these were also false statements made by this piece and certain realistic predictions indeed made by BND simply omitted.)

    Now here the German original of above statement re: “Little enthusiasm at the BND”:

    “(…)konkrete Prognosen, insbesondere mit Verweis auf Jahreszahlen, seien in solchen Zusammenhängen grundsätzlich kaum seriös zu treffen.(…)”

    When this phrase translated by deepl.com it says:

    “(…)Concrete forecasts, especially those referring to specific years, are generally not reliable in such contexts(…)”.

    “kaum seriös” – “hardly reliable” or “serious” are the words that matter and get omitted completely in what I got when machine-translating the thing via google before posting it.

    Not to mention that the military buildup observed by NATO was a reaction to NATO in UKR not a precursor to NATO´s incursion, mixing up cause and effect. But we know about that.

    Mark Sleboda if I recall correctly suggested that 2029 was projected as the time when UKR would collapse militarily which is why that year was put out in public. That insight however you will not find anywhere in German news media.

    Reply ↓
26. thump September 30, 2025 at 11:42 am

    in The Lancet Infectious Diseases:

    In summary, our findings indicate that BA.3.2 exhibits robust antibody evasion but has low ACE2-binding capability and infectivity, which substantially limits its likelihood of prevailing. To achieve efficient spread akin to BA.2.86 or JN.1, BA.3.2 would require additional mutations to improve both its receptor engagement efficiency (eg, stabilising an open RBD conformation) and its evasion of class 1 antibodies.

    Reply ↓
    1. Yves Smith Post authorSeptember 30, 2025 at 2:13 pm

       Wellie, so the WHO is unduly alarmed? This one won’t become dominant? We’ll see soon enough.

       Hope you are right. Winter is almost here. Lotta holiday travel and infection opportunities coming soon.

       Reply ↓
       1. thump September 30, 2025 at 2:34 pm

          The most I could find directly from the WHO is this request for more data about emerging variants, but nothing particularly worried about BA.3.2 just yet. I guess my point is that that Twitter post seems to be low info, high alarm.

          FWIW, I still wear a N95 indoors in public and very rarely eat indoors at restaurants, get all my mRNA vaccines (although I try to time them before the winter surges, maybe no longer appropriate as summer surges seem to be bigger now?), and have never gotten Covid that I know of.

          Reply ↓
    2. Jason Boxman September 30, 2025 at 6:05 pm

       Here’s: COVID-19 Variant Dashboard – USA

       XFG is the current winner.

       Reply ↓
27. AG September 30, 2025 at 12:06 pm

    An especially dangerous example for censorship is the case of German professor Ulrike Guérot, once a hailed member of the Atlanticist community and assistant professor at the Paul H. Nitze School for Advanced International Studies in D.C.

    But that´s long past.

    Another, now higher German court, rejected her objection against Bonn University firing her on what in truth are political reasons. The university was abusing some laughable case of “plagiarism”. (You can´t take it seriously).

    In fact censorship in Germany as of now is usually taking place on the basis of some ridiculous pretext which can be somehow justified with current laws which are in truth being simply abused for political reasons to serve ulterior motives.

    by NACHDENKSEITEN

    use google translate

    Verdict in the Ulrike Guérot case
    Today, the verdict in the appeal case against Ulrike Guérot was published. The Cologne Regional Labor Court rejected Guérot’s appeal and upheld the dismissal of the political scientist and author by the University of Bonn. We spoke with Ulrike Guérot and her lawyers.

    by Maike Gosch .
    https://www.nachdenkseiten.de/?p=139811

    Reply ↓
    1. AG September 30, 2025 at 3:12 pm

       Mix-up.
       This was intended for today´s entry on censorship by Nat Wilson Turner.

       Reply ↓
28. Wukchumni September 30, 2025 at 12:07 pm

    Drudge report headlines:

    Kamala Harris New Book Racks Up Massive Sales…

    Best-Selling Memoir of 2025…
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Nobody reads books anymore, and when Kamalalf (homage to Landon) managed to lose all 3 seats of government, it was pretty obvious nobody gave a tinkers dam about her, but that was then and this is now, could a $18 million crash pad come out of her book ‘earnings’?

    Reply ↓
    1. hk September 30, 2025 at 8:00 pm

       Books are presumably being “bought” by political donors who will, likely, never even see their covers, let alone the inside. I am guilty of having bought friends’ books and never reading them.

       Reply ↓
29. Adam1 September 30, 2025 at 12:19 pm

    “The Case Against Generative AI”

    This should be listed as must read!

    I’m sure most of the usual Naked Capitalism readers are well aware of AI as being a bubble, but this article just shows how big and fragile that is. I remember living through the telecom & Dot.Com bubbles and all I can say is it reads the same, except the dollars are massively bigger.

    Reply ↓
    1. Wukchumni September 30, 2025 at 12:27 pm

       There are quite a few parallels to Atlas Shrugged, AI is Project X, for instance. Simply substitute Rearden Metal for electricity and there you have it.

       Project X

       Project X is an invention of the scientists at the state science institute, requiring tons of Rearden Metal. Basically, it is a “death ray”, and is capable of destroying anything with a sonic pulse. The scientists claim that the project will be used to preserve peace and squash rebellion. It is destroyed towards the end of the book, and emits a pulse of sound that destroys everything in the surrounding area, including Cuffy Meigs and Dr. Stadler, as well as the Taggart Bridge. The invention is publicly introduced as the “Thompson Harmonizer”.

       Reply ↓
30. Catalpa September 30, 2025 at 12:39 pm

    My thanks to Yves for including the tweet regarding the Chinese invention of a bone glue. What a wonderful gift for the world! In 2022, I had a relative with a shattered elbow – underwent several very long surgeries to repair it. This glue would have totally changed the outcome.

    Meanwhile, instead of helping humanity advance, our US overlords are still trying to make perfect our version of dramatic theater. To wit: I present this morning’s home page for the US Dept. of Housing and Urban Development (aka “HUD”):

    https://www.hud.gov/#close

    Reply ↓
    1. Yves Smith Post authorSeptember 30, 2025 at 3:05 pm

       You will have to go to China to get it. Mailed one of my MDs at the Hospital for Special Surgery (top orthopedic surgery hospital in the US, also very well endowed, does lots of research). His reply:

       “Not coming to US any time soon with FDA backlog.”

       Reply ↓
       1. geode September 30, 2025 at 5:08 pm

          China should invest in ski resorts, and other Red Bull sponsored stuff. :)

          Reply ↓
31. Mikel September 30, 2025 at 1:24 pm

    Young Moroccans clash with police while protesting stadium spending and health system decline -Independent

    “Unlike past protests driven by unions or political parties, the leaderless movement organizing the weekend protests publicized them largely on social media platforms such as TikTok and Discord, popular among gamers and teenagers.

    Two groups — “Gen Z 212” and “Morocco Youth Voices” — urged “peaceful and civilized protests” and responsible debate, even as many of their supporters voiced more militant demands.”

    Yet another one…”leaderless movement”…”Gen Z”…”social media platforms”…

    Reply ↓
32. Tom Stone September 30, 2025 at 2:36 pm

    The behavior of Trump and his advisers and the behavior of other World leaders may very well been affected by Covid.
    Many seem to be affected by a loss of executive function and diminished impulse control since the Pandemic arrived, Occam’s razor does not always provide the correct answer, however it may well be the right one in this case.
    WASS.

    Reply ↓
33. Wukchumni September 30, 2025 at 3:07 pm

    FBI director Kash Patel gave New Zealand’s police and spy bosses gifts of inoperable pistols that were illegal to possess under local gun laws and had to be destroyed, on a visit to the country earlier this year, local law enforcement agencies have told The Associated Press.

    The plastic 3D-printed replica pistols formed part of the display stands Mr Patel presented to at least three senior New Zealand security officials in July.

    Mr Patel, the most senior Trump administration official to visit the country so far, was in Wellington to open the FBI’s first standalone office in New Zealand.

    Pistols are tightly restricted weapons under New Zealand law and possessing one requires an additional permit beyond a regular gun license.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Last time I was in NZ, went into a sporting goods store that had about 30 different types of rifles & shotguns for sale, they were all locked in wood casing, but you could handle them somewhat.

    I asked the proprietor if I was a New Zealander, how long would it take for me to get my gat?

    He said there would have to be background checks, police report, vouching of neighbors and workplace employees, etc. Said it would take about 12 weeks.

    I asked him how about a pistol?

    He said i’d probably have to be on the NZ Olympic shooting team, otherwise no.

    Then he asked me a very salient question…

    What would I need a pistol for?

    Reply ↓
    1. hk September 30, 2025 at 8:02 pm

       Why does FBI have offices in foreign countries?

       Reply ↓
34. skippy September 30, 2025 at 3:31 pm

    Something to look forward too …/s …

    “‘Cognitive elite’

    Davidson and Rees-Mogg (father of Conservative politician and hardline Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg) flatter their readers by casting them as members of a “cognitive elite” – uniquely positioned to prosper as the old order crumbles.

    They are upfront about their intentions, plainly stating their aim to help readers “take advantage of the opportunities of the new age and avoid being destroyed by its impact”. They claim, for the first time in history,

    those who can educate and motivate themselves will be free to invent their own work and realize the full benefits of their own productivity. Genius will be unleashed, freed from both the oppression of government and the drags of racial and ethnic prejudice. In the Information Society, no one who is truly able will be detained by the ill-informed opinions of others.

    It is a strikingly utopian and irreducibly exclusionary sort of vision. The phrase “truly able” is doing a lot of work here, drawing an implicit dividing line between the deserving few and the unworthy many. Rees-Mogg and Davidson reassure their readers inequality is a natural fact of life: a flattering message for the elite.” – snip

    https://theconversation.com/this-libertarian-manifesto-loved-by-peter-thiel-urges-a-cognitive-elite-to-see-selfishness-as-a-virtue-263742

    Reply ↓
    1. ambrit September 30, 2025 at 4:51 pm

       This lot have spun out a tale too convoluted by half. I much prefer the old fashioned version of this ethos: “I’m alright Jack.”
       What I love about the Meritocrats is their apparent dismissal of luck as an ‘agent’ in Terran human affairs. The age old illusion of complete control. It never ends well.
       Stay safe.

       Reply ↓
35. Wukchumni September 30, 2025 at 3:44 pm

    September 30, 2025 – A new National Park Service report shows that a record 2,008,962 visitors to Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks in 2024 spent $192.5 million in communities near the park. That spending had a cumulative benefit to the local economy of $230.9 million.

    “People come to Sequoia and Kings Canyon to see the world’s largest trees and end up supporting local economies along the way,” said Superintendent Clay Jordan. “We’re proud that these parks generate over $200 million in revenue to communities near the parks.”
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Last time we had a government shutdown, Benedick Donald kept the National Parks open, albeit with skeleton crews. Twas a disaster.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    More than three dozen former national park superintendents have urged Interior Secretary Doug Burgum to close the National Park System if the federal government shuts down on October 1.

    “Past shutdowns in which gates remained open with limited staff have hurt our parks: Iconic symbols cut down and vandalized, trash piled up, habitats destroyed, and visitor safety jeopardized. If you don’t act now, history is not just doomed to repeat itself, the damage could in fact be much worse,” reads a letter the 40 superintendents sent to Burgum on Thursday.

    With Congressional Republicans and Democrats far apart on the makeup of a Continuing Resolution to keep the federal government operating while negotiations continue to seek a Fiscal 2026 budget agreeable to both parties, the Trump administration is suggesting governmental agencies that rely on federal appropriations to operate shut down next Wednesday, the start of the government’s new fiscal year.

    During his first term in office, President Donald Trump let parks stay open and operating under skeleton staffing. That resulted in vandalism reported in Joshua Tree National Park, visitors erecting illegal campsites in Death Valley National Park, and reports of illegal off-road travel, metal detecting on battlefields in the park system, and other damage to resources.

    Sequoia National Park and neighboring Kings Canyon National Park closed entirely because of human waste issues and trash that was being spread around by wildlife looking for meals.

    The former superintendents warned of similar problems if the park system remains open during a government shutdown.

    “National parks don’t run themselves. It is hardworking National Park Service employees that keep them safe, clean, and accessible,” the letter pointed out. “Park staff manage everything from routine maintenance of buildings and trails to educational programs that teach visitors how to safely and attentively engage with nature to guided tours that share the stories of our collective history. National Park Service employees study, monitor, and learn from our natural world through long term projects and research – and these projects, in addition to irreplaceable resources and habitat, are in jeopardy during a shutdown.”

    https://www.nationalparkstraveler.org/2025/09/former-park-superintendents-want-national-parks-closed-if-government-shuts-down

    Reply ↓
36. Offtrail September 30, 2025 at 4:55 pm

    What other solutions are there? Stop supporting Israel.

    There is something very questionable about expecting other countries to solve problems that Israel has created, at no cost to Israel.

    Reply ↓
37. Glen September 30, 2025 at 5:20 pm

    Here’s a review of the Pentagon “all hands” meeting by Ward Carroll:

    Deep Intel on the Hegseth/Trump Speech to Admirals and Generals at Quantico
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YgTdcUMISM

    Reply ↓
    1. AG September 30, 2025 at 7:30 pm

       thanks!

       (SoW rhetoric, performance and intellectual level are abysmal but what else could you expect from the Big and Beautiful Administration)

       “Starship Troopers” speech
       Starship Troopers Scene Citizens vs Civilians
       2 min.
       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_urWSSZgwU

       Reply ↓
38. raspberry jam September 30, 2025 at 10:25 pm

    China Behind the Scenes: Funding Terror and Penetrating Israel | Times of Israel (opinion)

    The thesis:

    Without Chinese support, Iran could not sustain its failing economy or bankroll Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. Over 90% of Iran’s oil flows to China, providing a financial lifeline for its regional aggression. Procurement networks in China and Hong Kong have supplied precision components to Iran’s drones – the very UAVs now striking ships in the Red Sea, launched by Houthis in the south and Hezbollah in the north. And while much criticism has focused on India’s discounted purchases of Russian oil, far less attention is given to Beijing’s massive and ongoing lifeline to Tehran – a reality with global implications.

    Okay, we started hearing this recently. And sure enough there are some baseless claims about China pushing antisemitic propaganda on the internet. Blah blah. But wait – what’s this?

    World capitals see Moscow as the central threat, and in doing so miss the broader picture: Beijing and Ankara advancing a new order.

    Surely not! Could it be?!

    Turkey, meanwhile, a NATO member only on paper, openly embraces Hamas and wages campaigns not only against Israel but against Europe itself. In 2025, Athens recorded renewed armed F-16 incursions after a 30-month lull, alongside more than a hundred violations by Turkish UAVs and patrol aircraft – while NAVTEX duels in the Aegean and challenges to EU maritime zones around Cyprus have become routine. Brussels calls a handful of Russian flights over Estonia a “major threat”, yet overlooks Turkey’s constant violations of EU airspace in Greece and Cyprus. This reflects a pattern of selective vigilance in Europe.

    Most dangerous of all, Ankara links its “Middle Corridor” with China’s Belt & Road, drawing in Pakistan through CPEC and Gwadar. Houthi strikes in the Red Sea already erode the Suez route, making these land corridors more appealing. For Israel, this bypasses Eastern Mediterranean trade; for Europe, it creates a rival artery; and for Egypt, it threatens Suez revenues and strategic leverage. These are not abstract lines on a map but pathways that can redraw global commerce at the expense of Israel, Europe, and Egypt alike.

    Let’s tie it all together:

    The military dimension is equally stark. The Houthi campaign in the Red Sea relies on Iranian drones built with Chinese components and emboldened by Turkish facilitation – facts noted by the US Treasury Department and allied intelligence assessments. This convergence of Chinese capital, Turkish geography, Iranian technology, and Houthi terror is deliberate: a fusion of resources to test maritime security and project pressure far beyond the region. For Israel, it means strategic encirclement; for Europe it means vulnerability at their most vital chokepoint.

    But what is to be done?!

    Israel needs a policy of clarity. Netanyahu’s statement is already setting in motion a plan: full control of critical infrastructure, including public control where necessary; a binding standard to block Chinese vehicles and hardware from vital systems; and steps to reduce dependence on cheap but hazardous equipment. The same clarity is required for all democracies facing Chinese coercion.

    On the diplomatic front, the time has come to openly debate recognition of Taiwan as the sovereign democracy it already is.

    I’ve lost count of how many wars Israel is running now but this deserves a trophy for sheer delusional grandeur.

    Reply ↓
    1. Ben Panga October 1, 2025 at 1:19 am

       >I’ve lost count of how many wars Israel is running now

       What would be the foreign policy rewording of: “If everyone you meet is an asshole, you’re the asshole.”

       Reply ↓
       1. raspberry jam October 1, 2025 at 3:26 am

          There is that. But there is also this:

          Will rapprochement unlock the full potential of the Eastern Mediterranean’s natural gas wealth? | Atlantic Council

          Gas and Geopolitics in the Eastern Mediterranean | Arab Center Washington DC

          THE EBBS AND FLOWS OF EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN GAS POLITICS IN 2025 | Policy Center for the New South

          The Policy Center for the New South link has a concise document summary that hits on a key detail in the hysterical op ed above:

          Geopolitical tensions and competing interests define the Eastern Mediterranean’s energy landscape. Vast natural gas reserves offer economic potential, but overlapping maritime claims and ongoing conflicts—particularly the Israel-Lebanon war and the Gaza conflict—threaten existing agreements and future projects. The European Union’s efforts to reduce dependence on Russian gas initially positioned the region as a key supplier, but escalating instability now puts these ambitions at risk. Key factors include the impact of conflicts on gas exploration and exports, the roles of Turkey, Egypt, and Qatar, the influence of global powers and multinational corporations, and the uncertain prospects for regional energy cooperation.

          If Turkey successfully leverages the Middle Corridor to Europe then Israel’s claim on these fields and the wacky alternate route that goes through Israel and Saudi won’t get past their current vaporware state. But if Europe can somehow be turned against Turkey, even to the point of booting them out of Nato (lol, I know, they’re the only real army, but try to view this from the delusional Israeli geopolitical chess perspective), then maybe the plans can be salvaged to Israel’s profit.

          What role does Egypt play here? From the Atlantic Council link:

          Over the past decade or so, an implicit competition has emerged between the two countries, which have the largest markets and most developed infrastructure in the Eastern Mediterranean, each vying to become the main destination and transit point for the region’s gas resources. Adding to this are their diverging views over how maritime borders should be defined: Turkey believes that islands’ capacity to generate maritime zones should be limited compared to states with longer coastal fronts, whereas Egypt signed agreements to delimit its maritime boundaries with Cyprus and Greece based on the median line, albeit adjusted where necessary. This brought Egypt closer to Cyprus and Greece. In parallel, the deterioration of Israeli-Turkish relations led to deeper engagement between Israel, Cyprus, and Greece.

          But there are problems getting the gas to the EU. From the Arab Center link:

          Furthermore, the envisioned undersea gas pipeline between Israel and the EU has not secured the required financing, and lobbying for that purpose appears to have reached a dead end.3 The only facility to move Eastern Mediterranean gas outside the region are two 20-year-old LNG terminals in Egypt.

          I can see how a desperate and delusional mind might think that drawing China and Turkey into the Iran war theater would be a way to remove Turkey from the claims on the existing fields, pry them out of Nato and block the Middle Corridor to the EU, which would potentially reopen financing and other investment for Israel related to the fields. And if Egypt and Greece are also drawn in and/or their facilities or claims can be damaged in some way, I imagine there are schemes to make that happen too.

          Reply ↓
    2. hk October 1, 2025 at 2:24 am

       Chronicles of the Elders of Han, I guess?

       Reply ↓
39. Jason Boxman September 30, 2025 at 11:58 pm

    Over three more years of this guy, who quite possible is losing his mind. Par for the course after Biden, although Trump seems somewhat more dangerous.

    There is also the matter of his delivery. It has become harder to perceive the occasionally revealing things the president says — like Tuesday’s admission that he saw American cities as “training grounds” for troops — because of the way he sometimes says them.

    For a 79-year-old, he’s often shown a great deal of energy, but he seemed a bit sapped Tuesday. As his remarks went on and on, his voice took on a more monotonous quality. A day earlier, when he spoke at the White House while standing beside Mr. Netanyahu, Mr. Trump sounded out of breath at times.

    Or perhaps repeat COVID infections are catching up with Trump? We’ll likely never know.

    From Trump Gave the Military’s Brass a Rehashed Speech. Until Minute 44. (NY Times via archive.ph)

    Reply ↓
40. hk October 1, 2025 at 2:32 am

    https://gilbertdoctorow.substack.com/p/is-vladimir-putin-about-to-be-overthrown?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1203055&post_id=174995967&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=mhq8&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

    This is a new one, especially from Doctorrow. He’s not especially reliable–he’s too given to opinionating in guise of analysis, but his read of the Russian media is valuable and there is something to his take that, no matter what happens, Russia is going to get a lot more aggressive soon. I don’t see them doing a decapitation strike on Kiev, though, if they do get their hands dirty. I would expect the target to be Berlin.

    Reply ↓
41. XXYY October 1, 2025 at 3:39 pm

    “In only 5 years, Long Covid has surpassed asthma as the most common chronic condition in young children… we have no idea what will happen when we reinfect children over and over again.

    I remember reading a (very cruel!) study several years ago where the researchers would reinfect mice with some covid variant over and over again. That is as soon as the mouse recovered they would infect him with covid once again.

    They found that the “lethal dose” for covid infections in mice was around 8 infections.

    Of course, we have no way of knowing how well these results can be extrapolated to other species, other variants of the virus, other infection intervals, and so on, but I remember being shocked at the idea that the cumulative damage from the virus would eventually kill you.

    I have not been able to find that study again despite much searching, but I’m curious if anyone else has seen anything similar. A child who is born now will obviously have many decades in which to acquire covid damage, and I don’t like to think of the results of that, including in my own child. The public school system in the US is completely ignoring this issue, and school children are not only infecting each other repeatedly but also their parents and relatives.

    Doesn’t sound like a recipe for anything good.

    Reply ↓