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Links 9/9/2025

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Survivor’s island: coyotes seen paddling across deep San Francisco Bay waters Guardian (Kevin W)

The Vanishing Art Of Building Sacred Spaces Nomea (Micael T)

#COVID-19

Vaccine chaos: Even some vulnerable seniors can’t get COVID shots amid spiking cases MedicalXPress (Robin K)

Climate/Environment

U.S. mines are literally throwing away critical minerals Grist

World Meat Prices Reach New High as Consumers Clamor for Beef Bloomberg

Drought hit over half of Europe in mid-August, EU data shows Agence France-Presse

Floods affect over 4 million people in Pakistan’s Punjab province Xinhua. From a few days ago, still germane

China?

China’s Export Momentum Slows, Missing Expectations Wall Street Journal

China’s Exports to Africa Are Soaring as Trade to U.S. Plunges New York Times

Chinese travellers mull Russia for visa-free National Day holidays South China Morning Post

China’s MEGA bubble Is a Warning To The World Eurodollar University, YouTube (Li). From a few days ago, still germane.

India

India urges BRICS to tackle deficits as bloc rallies against U.S. tariffs CNBC

Koreas

South Korea in Deadlock Over $350 Billion Investment Fund Bloomberg. That was fast.

Tensions rise as North Korea continues sending water into South from border dam Korea Joongang Daily

Japan PM Shigeru Ishiba to resign amid fallout from disastrous elections Guardian (Kevin W)

Southeast Asia

Revealed: the huge growth of Myanmar scam centres that may hold 100,000 trafficked people Guardian

Thai court rules Thaksin Shinawatra must serve one year in jail Bangkok Post. Deadly to any remaining political aspirations of the Shinawatras. Recall that the Shinawarta family had been sheltered in Cambodia by Cambodia’s former leader Hun Sen. It was Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra calling him over a border dustup, and addressing him “uncle” and dissing the military in a leaked phone call which got her removed from office by the Constitutional Court. I was told by an ex-government employee that there is a very large offshore gas field which falls nearly all in Thai waters but a tiny bit is Cambodian. No deal has been struck. The rumor is that Thaksin and Hun Sen had come to an agreement, with each to profit personally, and the border skirmish was somehow part of completing the agreement. The reason that Paetongtarn calling Hun Sen “uncle” was that the Thai word is much more groveling, and is mainly used when addressing senior monks.

Africa

South Africa’s economy collapsing one domino at a time Daily Investor

Sudan, Egypt FMs urge Ethiopia to change course ahead of megadam launch Al-Monitor

Terrorists killed at least 63 people in northeastern Nigeria while storming a town whose residents had been returned from a displacement camp, the state governor said TRT

South of the Border

The growing Israeli foothold in South America: Three new battlegrounds The Cradle

JD Vance: I don’t care if strike on Venezuela drug boat is war crime Telegraph

Maduro vows to defend Venezuela’s sovereignty as tensions rise with US Independent

Huge crowds rally for Brazil’s Bolsonaro ahead of verdict in coup trial Aljazeera

Argentina President Milei suffers crushing defeat in Buenos Aires provincial election Associated Press (Kevin W)

European Disunion

French government collapses as PM François Bayrou loses confidence vote Financial Times

A new, more dizzying chapter in French politics Le Monde

Peace could save European economy — so why are EU leaders sabotaging it? Cocotteminute

Old Blighty

Why even an IMF bailout couldn’t save Britain now Telegraph

The fiscal straitjacket facing Labour must be broken New Statesman (Colonel Smithers)

Arrests at rally against Palestine Action ban rise to 890 BBC (Kevin W)

Banksy mural of judge beating protester at Royal Courts of Justice in London to be removed CBS (Kevin W)

Israel v. the Resistance

IDF Orders Sweeping Evacuation of Gaza City Ahead of Planned Takeover Haaretz

Yemen announces second day of strikes on Israeli targets Tehran Times

Major internet outage amidst suspicion that Houthis behind undersea cable cuts Janta Ka, YouTube

Iran FM Araghchi warns Europe against ‘reckless’ approach to nuclear deal Aljazeera

Three Dams in Iran Dried Up, Eight More Near Collapse Iran Focus

New Not-So-Cold War

Ukraine’s Victory Redefined Moon of Alabama (Kevin W)

Coalition of the unwilling gets stuck in Groundhog Day Ian Proud (Colonel Smithers)

Treasury secretary says U.S. and European Union must partner to ‘collapse’ Russian economy NBC. It is striking how Administration officials don’t just say stupid things, but seem to delight in repeating them.

Inside Russian drone terror ‘hunt’ targeting Ukrainian children who are ‘playing football’ Express. resilc: “They cook them and eat them like Clinton did is next?”

HIGH IN THE ARCTIC, NORWAY’S UNEASY TIES WITH RUSSIA ARE FRAYING Bloomberg

Medvedev proposed to return to the issue of Finland’s reparations payments TopWar (Micael T)

Imperial Collapse Watch

29 million deaths linked to EU and US sanctions – study RT (Micael T)

The Worst Cartel Julian Macfarlane

Vance Celebrates Trump’s Murder Policy Daniel Larison

Trump 2.0

Trump is turning the White House into Mar-a-Lagoland Financial Times (resilc)

Trump asks Supreme Court to let it cut billions in foreign aid Aljazeera (Kevin W)

Appeals court upholds E. Jean Carroll’s $83.3M defamation judgment against Trump Associated Press

RFK Jr.’s Lies Stain the Republic Washington Monthly

Thune says Senate will change the rules to push through Trump’s blocked nominees Associated Press

Immigration

Workers in shackles, companies in shock: Georgia raid spooks foreign investors in US Financial Times. See our related post.

As our post describes, a MAGA influencer running for Congress was responsible and somehow got ICE interested:

US Supreme Court rules immigration agents can now racially profile people Middle East Eye

Trump shows S Korea who’s boss with Hyundai plant raid Asia Times (Kevin W)

L’affaireEpstein

US lawmakers release Epstein ‘birthday book’ with alleged Trump note BBC

How JPMorgan Enabled the Crimes of Jeffrey Epstein New York Times (Kevin W)

Mamdani

Mamdani Holds Huge Lead in Mayor’s Race, Times/Siena Poll Finds New York Times. BWAHAHA

Mr. Market is Moody

Scenario of a Triple Whammy for Long-Term Treasury Yields Wolf Richter. See the post today on bonds for a contrasting view.

Most bizarre housing market crash of the US: Top Economist Steve Keen, YouTube (Micael T)

AI

Data Shows That AI Use Is Now Declining at Large Companies Futurism

Two activists have gone on hunger strike outside the offices of Google DeepMind in London and Anthropic in the US, calling on companies to pause the development of advanced artificial intelligence India Today

ChatCGT evades count to one million TikTok. Wowsers. Micael T: “The nightmare is here. Is it time for a ChatGTP-guilloutine already?” Moi: This is our collective future.

This Stanford computer science professor went to written exams 2 years ago because of AI. He says his students insisted on it Fortune

Google’s AI cites web pages written by AI, study says The Register (Chuck L)

The Bezzle

Hunched and hideous digital model reveals what influencers could look like in 2050: ‘Her lifestyle has left its mark’ New York Post (Micael T)

Guillotine Watch

The Storm Hits the Art Market Artnet (Paul R). Important. A sign of distress or at least worry at the high end. I knew things would end badly when banks started lending against art in the early 1990s. Took a while but is finally happening.

Class Warfare

Rebalancing Retirement: How 401(k) Plans Exacerbate Inequality and What We Can Do About It Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance

Report shows top 400 richest Americans now taxed less than general population PhysOrg (Dr. Kevin)

Electricity Costs Are Soaring and AI Will Make Matters Worse Michael Shedlock

Antidote du jour (via):

And a bonus:

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

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169 comments

    1. thrombus

      Fembot ChatGTP is trying to charm him into not doing the job, which is kinda realistic. I bet some people out there would ask “her” on a date. :)

    2. YuShan

      When I saw the video I wanted to try it too with voice, so I had some conversations this afternoon. I am seriously impressed (perhaps partly because my expectations were low, but…).

      While I think AI is a massive bubble, it must be seriously disruptive for all kinds of businesses. I find myself rarely using search engines anymore (which is still the bread and butter of Google). I just ask ChatGPT or Grok (they will both provide links to sources if I want that).

      I use it for quick questions but also for coding (I’m not a professional, just some hobby coding). You learn how to prompt to get the best results and for my goals it is really useful and a great time saver.

      Apart from coding, select a pleasant voice and just ask questions takes it to a new level. I only wish it could run locally in real time instead of talking to the cloud. That is still some way off.

    3. Alphonse

      A top comment: “Almost missed that cut.”

      Check out the 0:47 mark, right after he instructs the male voice to count to a million. I got taken in. Always read the comments.

  2. The Rev Kev

    “Hunched and hideous digital model reveals what influencers could look like in 2050: ‘Her lifestyle has left its mark’ ”

    All those present day influences are already in a lot of trouble. They are already coming out with AI influencers to replace the real deal. British telecom Vodafone used an AI influencer to advertise a promotion on its TikTok account and sharp eyed people noticed that the moles on her chin would disappear and reappear-

    https://fortune.com/2025/09/08/vodafone-ads-marketing-ai-influencers-technology/

    Seeing is no longer believing.

  3. Wukchumni

    The Storm Hits the Art Market Artnet

    Babin is far from the only dealer on the way out. The art world is in a precarious state as it heads into the second half of 2025. Not a week goes by, it seems, without a major gallery closing: Blum, Venus Over Manhattan, and Kasmin are other prominent summer casualties. Smaller galleries are exiting and downsizing discreetly. Each case is different, but many voice the same laments: Overheads are killing businesses. Sales are down. It’s no longer fun. Primary pricing is untenable. Major collectors have stopped buying art or significantly reduced their spending. The next generation isn’t there to take over from the old guard. The art world has become bloated, and there isn’t an easy way to cure the malaise.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Had dinner with a coin dealer in his 70’s-still going at it, and I asked him about young adult coin collectors, and I’ve known him a long time, and he said ‘remember when you were in your 20’s and there were a fair number of others like you, wheeler-dealer types-wise beyond their years?… Well there aren’t any, and there aren’t any young coin collectors, they don’t exist.’

    Truly rare coins are in a bubble, for instance a 1913 Liberty Nickel sold for $100k in 1972 and $3.7 million 15 years ago, not unlike a home purchased in Silicon Valley in 1972, but nothing like art-which is the biggest bubble of all.

    Older paintings that fetch $100 million now, sold for $50k in the 40’s, and the more modern art is a bit of a joke as you’re selling the artist’s name more than the actual artwork, and need I mention you could make perfect digital copies of most everything that fits in a frame that wouldn’t look any different than the real thing?

      1. Wukchumni

        If I was a serious collector of anything, i’d sell it yesterday.

        Young people have no interest in what interested us.

        1. lyman alpha blob

          I’m still trying to figure out what they are interested in, other than phone. The investigation continues….

          1. Retired Carpenter

            I know many young carpenters who are very interested in acquiring old, well-made, tools. I will distribute my tools among them rather than having a shop sale. Folks, old and young, who work with their hands still appreciate good tools.

      2. griffen

        In a recent purchase of gas and beer, naturally on a Sunday afternoon, the local QT store associates actually impressed me with the quick thinking I once performed in my youth at varied retail cashier jobs or sorting out delivery orders for restocking shelves.

        The total purchase was right at $37.01, for which I had a couple Lincolns available. I joked about not receiving $0.99 as change and he was like nah it’s not worth that trouble. With digital payments and using a card 24/7 I think this and future generations are gonna lose some of this precise math in your brain ability. Using cash to pay is my habit to control my worse tendencies or weak minded spontaneous consumption.

  4. GM

    Medvedev proposed to return to the issue of Finland’s reparations payments TopWar (Micael T)

    Medvedev did a lot more. Read the full thing:

    https://tass.ru/opinions/24989035

    It could have gone even further — it has to always be remembered that Finland invaded Russia on multiple occasions in the 1919-1921 period seeking to get more land in the chaos of the Russian Civil War and they started with the Greater Finland maps already back then.

    But as it is it is rather thorough exposition of how bad the Finns have behaved historically since the 1930s:

    1) The Greater Finland aspirations, all the way to the Urals and even the river Ob
    2) Them being ready to ally with the Nazis even before the Winter War
    3) The role they played in the starvation and bombing of Leningrad
    4) The concentration camps in occupied Eastern Karelia
    5) How they were basically the same as the German Nazis during the war.

    And so on.

    And how they were largely given a pardon by the Soviets after 1944, lived way beyond their means thanks to the beneficial special relationship with the USSR and later Russia, yet now instead of Finlandization of Ukraine we got Ukrainization of Finland, and even faster than in Ukraine itself.

    It ended with the following warning:

    …the main thing for the Finnish establishment is not to forget that confrontation with us could lead to the collapse of Finnish statehood forever. No one will be soft-spoken with them like in 1944.

    You don’t write so many thousands of words just because, even if it was also September 8th and the anniversary (but not a round one) of the Leningrad siege.

    The whole thing is quite reminiscent of Putin’s essay on the Ukraine question in the summer of 2021.

  6. Afro

    Data Shows That AI Use Is Now Declining at Large Companies Futurism

    This Stanford computer science professor went to written exams 2 years ago because of AI. He says his students insisted on it Fortune

    ************

    I think that a lot of the excitement that corporations have for AI is that they just love the idea of firing workers and firing talent. In their minds they’re going to lay off 100 million Americans, whose salaries they see as waste, and keep the change for themselves. That plan is nonsense but they don’t realize it.

    What I’ve seen of AI thus far is that it’s really, really good at computer programming and writing. It’s equivalent to having a hard working, genius-level assistant. But a human needs to give it prompts and evaluate the work.

    As for exams, I have this fight with my university. They don’t even want to pay for more proctors. It takes one student in a class of 200 to make cheating a problem (which can be done without AI), but the University needs to step in. Exams need more proctors, and might benefit from faraday cages.

    1. GM

      The solution to cheating is oral exams.

      The problem is that the throughput of oral exams is low, and neither universities nor professors will like the idea because of that.

      But it’s the only way out of the crisis.

      1. Acacia

        And it’s rather unclear how students will learn to do research when research essays are replaced by in-class exams. Probably, they just won’t learn how to do it.

        Imagine going from never being asked to write an essay at university to suddenly being asked to write an MA or PhD thesis.

        I have a friend who works at a R1 research university, and he tells me that he no longer assigns essays, only in-class writing, i.e., blue books.

        Also, good luck with all the lecture courses of 60~200 students, as the course content will have to be radically reduced to make time for all of the oral exams.

        Everybody I know in higher education is now saying “I cannot wait to retire”. Of course, can’t blame them, but it does raise questions about the calibre and experience of those who will replace them.

        The phrase “doom loop” readily comes to mind.

      2. Afro

        But if students are evaluated one at a time in an oral exam, is there not another pathway to cheating, if only a few percent of the students share the questions?

        I agree that the Universities need to invest more resources into testing fairness. I’m still salty from being denied additional proctors a few months ago.

    2. Acacia

      What I’ve seen of AI thus far is that it’s really, really good at computer programming and writing. It’s equivalent to having a hard working, genius-level assistant. But a human needs to give it prompts and evaluate the work.

      Largely depends on the language, for when I asked an AI assistant to write a CSV parser in my language of choice it failed miserably three times in a row, giving me code that wouldn’t even compile.

      I know a number of professional software developers and they laugh about how useless these tools are for the niche language they use while simultaneously saying that there will soon be no reason to bother learning Python.

      So, we’re talking about the possibility of a whole coming generation of “coders” who no longer actually know how to code, and “writers” who can’t write without plagiarizing from AI.

      But sure… this tech will lead to a utopia of leisure, with so many millions of people freed from IT drudge work basking in the sun next to beautiful swimming pools, etc. etc.

      2. Afro

        I use DeepSeek and have good results. Sometimes codes fail to compile the first time around — something that also happens with humans 99+% of the time — but it can iterate. Just feed it back the error message.

        1. Acacia

          Nope. That won’t work.

          Out of curiosity, I just tried it again now with the latest version of DeepSeek, and I get the same failures I got before with Copilot and ChatGPT: the generated code contains classes and functions that simply do not exist. The code patterns it’s generating are a melange of made-up names and ancient APIs that haven’t been used in well over a decade and in NO WAY resemble the patterns that would ordinarily be used in the target language.

          I tell DeepSeek that the suggested code won’t work. I tell it that class X doesn’t exist, it says “you’re right” and then it just suggests class Y which also doesn’t exist. After three tries and three classes that don’t exist, I see no point in continuing. It’s just throwing mud at a wall and seeing what sticks. “Iterating” doesn’t work if the model is bunk, and that’s very likely why it’s failing so badly.

          So, it’s the usual issue. The AI sounds very confident but the output simply doesn’t work.

          And shall we start on the ethical implications of iterating/training services that corporations want because what they really aim for is to use AI services in order to lay off 100 million workers as a way to boost short term profits?

          Is it ethical to train these tools to help scum managers and companies lay off workers and deny fresh graduates entry-level positions? For me, personally, the answer is “no”.

    3. diptherio

      Genius level writing?!? Lol. If it’s so genius level then why do I, a non-genius have to check it’s work?

      1. David Nataf

        I’ve never met a human whose work never benefits from being looked over. Actually, the brightest, most accomplished people I know seek constructive feedback and testing.

        1. Jonathan King

          When I was the editor in chief of one magazine I worked at, things I wrote would be passed around the edit staff for comments and critiques the same as any other contributor’s drafts. The acronym ENAE was crafted to suit this system: Everyone Needs an Editor.

    4. chris

      Re: genius level assistant…

      That makes sense. A lot of geniuses take substances to relieve themselves of the stress of being around dummies all the time. Perhaps the LLM hallucinations are the product of digital dummies needed to temper reactions from so many dumb questions.

      The one use I have seen for the current crop of AI that is worthwhile and actually saves time is setting up forms and tables and spreadsheets. Standard concepts for business, like risk registers, are time consuming to make and using AI does save time. But even then, you need to go through and check everything before you share those creations.

    5. Santo de la Sera

      Genius? I think of it more as a very motivated junior intern that has no sense of judgment, and therefore tries to take dangerous shortcuts when possible, so needs a firm boss standing behind it and setting strict rules that are constantly monitored for compliance.
      But it’s actually really good at dealing with compiler errors.

  7. tegnost

    From the AP on Argentina…
    Admittedly a long clip but the editorial presence in a news item seems hard to ignore…
    An economy in troubled waters
    Although Milei can boast of bringing down Argentina’s triple-digit inflation over the last few months and ending the reckless spending of his Peronist predecessors, Argentines have yet to see the economic revival that was supposed to follow his harsh austerity measures.

    His government has unwound Argentina’s labyrinthine currency restrictions as part of a $20 billion International Monetary Fund bailout, but has not yet won the trust of international financiers who could bring the investment needed to add jobs and turbocharge economic growth in the country.

    “Milei has a very strong ideology, and his vision is that the state has to have a minimal impact and investments have to come from the private sector. But that hasn’t materialized yet,” said Ana Iparraguirre, an Argentine political analyst and partner at Washington-based strategy firm GBAO.

    Consumer confidence is falling, unemployment is rising, and interest rates are soaring to record highs as the government repeatedly intervenes in the currency market to prop up the peso and hold down inflation in hopes of placating cash-strapped voters.

  8. The Rev Kev

    ‘FactPost
    @factpostnews
    Lawyer for Hyundai plant employees: One thing that’s been unclear through all of this is why did ICE go to this plant? They didn’t even bring a single Korean translator with them.” ‘

    Is that plant even open anymore? Having several hundred of your experienced workers just go poof must mean that the production line is shut down. Don’t know what any South Korean investors in that plant will do now but it ill become a cautionary tale of the hazards of investing in Trump America. Will they still invest in Trump’s Make American Shipbuilding Great Again? I myself would be wary.

        1. Yves Smith Post author

          Not for construction. Please see the comment toward the end of the post on this fiasco:

          Glen
          September 9, 2025 at 2:24 pm
          Glad you did a post on this, I was going to comment on this as installation of factory equipment from foreign countries is in my wheelhouse.

          I have installed factory equipment (mostly CNC machines) which had been manufactured in Japan, Germany, Italy, Austria, Canada, and Brazil. And I’ve worked on larger projects where a line is being installed which was built off site (these could be thought of as fifty to one hundred large CNC machines all aligned and working together). Every time the company we had purchased the equipment from sent an installation team (some of the companies had local people do this) which varied in size from one person for a small Canadian built CNC machine to teams of a hundred or more people on site for six months or more.

          Having an installation team is so normal to this process that I’ve really never heard it being done any other way. And our company was unusual in that it had a metrology/calibration lab with experienced engineers and techs along with facility engineers and techs and equipment engineers and techs with all the necessary equipment to align and test large machinery such as this:

          Machine calibration and optimisation https://www.renishaw.com/en/machine-calibration-and-optimisation–6330

          If it’s well planned you should have the people that will be maintaining the equipment working with the installation crew, and later on when testing of the equipment is close to complete, the installation crew should be training the operators and maintenance people, but having those experienced people there is key, depending on the complexity of the equipment it results in a huge speed up getting the work done. (I once ended up troubleshooting a German made CNC machine where most of the drawings and schematics were in German, that was bad enough, I cannot imagine what that would have been like in Korean.)

          So this is what a large amount of the re-industrialization of America will look like. $hiting on a key ally in this manner is gonna have consequences.

      2. hk

        Due to open soonish, iirc. The impression I had was that most of the Koreans were there to set things up before things went online. Curious how far the opening has been pushed back by these shenanigans….

    2. steppenwolf fetchit

      There is a maker of political videos ( with some humor in them) named Reese Waters. He just did a video called: ” Maga Karen Costs Georgia BILLIONS After South Korean Hyundai Raid ”
      Here is the link. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MgJpJW_NHsA

      It appears to have been driven by a political striver hoping to run for Congress who found that there were ” vaguely somehow illegal” people working there so she called ICE so she could brag on her social media about having called ICE. Reese Waters speculates that she will lose her upcoming race when the people of her hoped-for constituency-area realize just how much money she has deleted from Georgia’s future.

  9. MicaT

    US mines.
    Always interesting to see what they are saying in these articles.
    First as to lithium the prices have been falling for years. Also all the major producers are friends of the US. But the major refiner is in China. Of course the article doesn’t mention that. Low prices and uncertain futures mean no US companies will spend billions on a low return investment.
    The often repeated and untrue statement that solar panels have rare mineral requirements. Nope. Silica and silicon are the two major ingredients. Moses lake in eastern Washington was the major us supplier of silicon. It shut down due to the trade war with China under the Biden administration, if my memory is right.
    Silica, glass well that isn’t in short supply either. Solar panels except for a fraction of them use no rare earths or even materials that are in short supply.
    The prices are incredibly low.
    Magnesium is used in NMC chemistry batteries of which is getting to be old tech and is being replaced by LFP and sodium. Getting rid of the metals in the NMC couldn’t happen soon enough. Sodium batteries are changing so rapidly that it’s hard to comprehend. With expected life spans approaching 50 yrs. 20,000 cycles.

    The basic part the article leaves out is even if there these materials in the mine tailings, is it economically recoverable?
    If it was they would be doing it regardless of where the end product is used for.

  10. Tom67

    About ICE and the South Koreans: the purpose of the tariffs and generally speaking of Trumps economic policies is getting importers to set up production in the US and creating jobs for US citizens. But here’s the kicker: you need an educated and healthy workforce. Neither is available in the States at the amount needed. I live in a heavily industrial area in the South of Germany. Industry is in deep crisis. Energy costs are three to four times as much as before the Ukraine war and not 100% guaranteed on top of that. BASF is giving up on Ludwigshafen, the largest chemical plant in the world. And where do they locate to? Not to the US although they would even be subsidized to do that. Witness Bidens “Inflation Reduction Act”. Why that? Because you can´t find the work force nor can you import the labor. Better to go to China where all the best German workers get insane amounts of money to teach the Chinese how to run the replica of Ludwigshafen.
    We are talking about very long term investment with a horizon of ten years at least. The long term doesn´t look good at all if you compare China to America.
    Take health: 20% of the US adult population on anti depressants, visible shocking obesity among the general population, a pharma controlled FDA mandating more than 70 vaccine shots per kid vs no more than 10 in the rest of the world. The food: people who are send from Germany to the US inexplicably always gain weight. No such troubles in China. Chinese people are generally in a much better state of health.
    Crime: non existent in China
    Education: to much rote learning in China and people never having learned how to make their own decisions. Certainly also not the most desirable workforce if you want to run a huge industrial plant where you can´t micromanage everything. But still much better than the States where you have a real problem finding people who can write flawlessly and do a simple calculation.
    To sum it up: the poor Koreans are between a rock and a hard place. They can´t run a factory with US labor but if they import their own labor they are in trouble. Same holds true for all the German manufacturers leaving Germany. If they can anyhow avoid it and still have access to the US market they will most definitely not relocate to the US.

    1. Mikel

      “Better to go to China where all the best German workers get insane amounts of money to teach the Chinese how to run the replica of Ludwigshafen.”

      Notice how they are importing people to teach the workers and not importing workers?
      If the USA government was serious about job training for citizens and would ACT NOW…there may be some older Americans still left that could teach a thing or two.

      1. Lee

        “…there may be some older Americans still left that could teach a thing or two.”

        “When an old person dies, it’s like a library burning down.”

        While more often associated with societies that rely on the oral transmission of knowledge, this saying is still applicable to societies that rely heavily on written communication. There are a plethora of various tricks of the trade in all human work and play that simply cannot be conveyed by words on a page. Of course, being of a certain age myself, I am biased.

    2. Carolinian

      Uh…BMW’s largest factory just down the road–employs 10,000 ignorant South Carolinians. One of my relatives started there early and rose to semi management, kept a boat in Charleston harbor.

      Meanwhile Mercedes in Alabama and Volkswagen in Tennessee. One might suspect that what these German companies are really seeking is non union.

      1. Tom67

        Union – non union is not the problem. Believe it or not: highly qualified workers get the same and more in China as in the US. In the chemical industry capital outlays are absolutely massive and the plants must run continuously. That is why there has not been a strike in the chemical industry in Germany ever and the chemical industry pays better than anybody else. Any stoppage might ruin very expensive equipment. American business is famous for short term thinking … I don´t know what they teach in business schools in the US but conducive to running industrial plants it certainly isn´t. Believe me, labour costs are minuscule compared to capital costs.

        1. JBird4049

          >>>… I don´t know what they teach in business schools in the US but conducive to running industrial plants it certainly isn´t. Believe me, labour costs are minuscule compared to capital costs.

          As is the case with the American government, starting in the 1980s, MBAs infected American businesses with the idea that increasing immediate profits, and only increasing immediate profits, by any means necessary, with it going to the shareholders and to the upper management was important. This is what they are taught.

          For instance, at the department store I worked at, they fired much of the floor management, moved the customer service department from local offices near to the stores to a single consolidated office several time zones away while keeping banker’s hours, fired almost the entire back office leaving one person for two floor department store, fired the training manager and started doing just on the job training, reduced the staff to just two people per a floor despite the multiple departments on them, cut benefits including pensions and healthcare, refused to have raises… and then complained to the store manager about the decreasing customer satisfaction and increasing shrinkage (theft), as well as declining sales.

          But they did “save” a lot of money by trimming “excess” costs, which is what MBAs are taught to do. I don’t think that the gradual decline of the company I worked at after all the management that had been trained by the founding owner and his people had retired was a coincidence, nor the saying that “greed is good” started to be taken seriously. People would work for the company for decades with twenty or even thirty years not uncommon, which was a reason for the effectiveness of management and workers, but the new management apparently didn’t mind churn.

          I know nothing about manufacturing, but I think that this type of thinking would destroy any business or company in the long run.

          2. Tom67

            Absolutely agree. The bane of the US is the Dollar and the Empire. The Dollar let’s Washington print the equivalent of gold and the Empire gets lot’s of cushy jobs in Washington voting themselves the Dollars for sunder NGO’s and the armament industry. The Midwest had excellent engineering once upon a time and I have a North Face tent “Made in the USA” in the Seventies that I still use in any kind of weather. The US would be better off without the Empire. The rest of the world profited (and profits) immensely from the US. Trump however clumsily understood all of that and so have the common people in the US. His attempts to get German industry to locate to the US will not work as the US has to do her homework first. Health, education et al. Generally speaking though there’s something good in the original set up of the US and hopefully you can rediscover it. At least the people in the “heartland” have the potential. Less so the upper crust on the coasts.

            1. principle

              The rest of the world profited (and profits) immensely from the US.

              For those that really believe this, I have a bridge to sell you, and some Trumpcoins. It’s a chance for immense profits.

              Trump however clumsily understood all of that and so have the common people in the US.

              Trump easily sold that lie to the exceptional plebs, because they want to believe. Same with Trumpcoins. As the sayin’ goes, as long as there are sheep, there will be wool.

      2. Yves Smith Post author

        Did you miss that this plant is under construction? And that requires foreign technicians to set up the installation and train the locals? Please get a grip.

    3. Es s Ce Tera

      “ But here’s the kicker: you need an educated and healthy workforce. Neither is available in the States at the amount needed. ”

      Yet. Wait til AI decimates any and all jobs involving using a computer. Suddenly those educated white collar workers will want and accept factory work. Dunno about healthy, though…

    4. scott s.

      Have friends in Montgomery, AL. There are plenty of Koreans in town, but from what I see the Hyundai production workers are all locals. Hyundai design is in CA.

      They give plant tours, but it seems like you have to make reservations months in advance.

  12. pjay

    – ‘Peace could save European economy — so why are EU leaders sabotaging it?’ – Cocotteminute

    I always read articles like this with great interest because (1) this seems like both a crucial question and a puzzling mystery to me; and (2) I keep getting very unsatisfactory answers to this question. Unfortunately, I have to add this to the latter category. After listing a number of ways that the Ukraine war is detrimental to the European economy, the author answers the latter question this way:

    “Self-interest, geopolitical leverage, politics, profit. EU bigwigs fear a deal ceding land would weaken their own credibility and influence. Pushing maximalist demands delays a harsh awakening: The war is all but lost. And then of course, European leaders would have to account for their strategic failure to voters…”

    Really? THIS is the explanation? That they would lose “credibility and influence” by facing reality? That “self-interest” is behind their willingness to risk economic destruction? I’m still waiting for a satisfactory answer.

    1. lyman alpha blob

      Someone should run DNA scans on the Euro leadership, because they are acting like a bunch of idiot inbred Hapsburgs.

    2. fjallstrom

      In the 2009 FRA-debate in Sweden it was revealed that FRA – the Swedish signal spy agency – for “technical development” can hand over any amount of information to the NSA. This was widely reported at the time.

      In 2013 it was revelead that Chancellor Merkel’s phone had been tapped by the NSA since 2002. This was widely reported at the time.

      It was revealed in 2021 that the danish equivalent help NSA complie dossiers on top politicians and civil servants in surrounding countries. This too was widely reported at the time.

      Chancellor Kohl’s front man to talk with the americans was interviewed on German television years ago and he claimed that the US strategy in negotiations was to start with flattery and then escalate to what he called blackmail. When asked about it he gave examples such as threatening to bring up the nazi atrocities and essentially drag Germany’s name through the mud.

      If these are added together, and if we assume that what happens in one country is likely to happen in the next, I think some ideas on suggest themselves on how “self-interest” might work.

  13. Ignacio

    India urges BRICS to tackle deficits as bloc rallies against U.S. tariffs CNBC

    Fair enough IMO. Such imbalances will almost certainly be a drag on BRICS aspirations. Replacing globalists with a different flavour of the same is not appealing.

    1. Mikel

      The Trump administration’s handling of the USA’s trade imbalances is ham-fisted, bullying, and chaotic.
      However, it really is the same concern of every other country that is whining about the USA trying to address trade imbalances.

    2. Mikel

      China’s MEGA bubble Is a Warning To The World – Eurodollar University

      Too many countries, not only China and USA, playing the “prop up the asset bubbles” game.

  14. Socal Rhino

    I assume any country on the periphery of China should expect US efforts to cause mischief by identifying and exploiting any preexisting tensions along ethnic, religious, national, or other fault lines. The so-called decision to pivot away from military clashes with China should not be confused with outright disengagement. Sounds like Cambodia/Thai energy disputes would be one likely target.

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      Please do not act as if these countries lack agency. China had nada to do with the Cambodia-Thailand row.

      And that gas field is large….relative to Thai and Cambodian needs. Not big enough to justify exporting.

      1. Socal Rhino

        Not denying agency or saying anything at all about China beyond the US viewing it as an adversary, just pointing out that if the US follows form it will look for any potential disputes to inflame in that region. The color revolution playbook. Apparently hottest in Nepal currently.

        By coincidence, this is the topic of the Duran this morning with guest Brian Berletic. The region will be in the US crosshairs. An anti-China play, not about energy like say Venezuela.

        1. Yves Smith Post author

          The US does not have the ability to do that in Thailand. The military and royalists call the shots. Thailand recently cancelled its F-35 orders.

        2. Ben Panga

          From talking (a little!) to Nepalis, the current disorder seems to be a direct outcome of an unpopular and economically ineffective government shutting down WhatsApp and most social media.

          This is a draconian step. People rely more on electronic communication in developing countries. Businesses, interpersonal relationships, civil society groups – all just got muted. It’s not “a blow against Western tech Imperialism”, it’s an old-fashioned shutdown of independent communication and media.

          The US is not a significant player in this.

          Not every citizens’ uprising is a CIA colour revolution. Far from it. I strongly echo Yves’ points about agency above.

    2. converger

      In an ideal world, China would be genuinely committed to global prosperity, self-determination, and human rights. They would, and should, win in a walk. In some areas, they are great: unlike the US and Russia, China is actually serious about dealing with climate change.

      Unfortunately, China has imperial territorial and economic ambitions, with more than a hint of cultural racism. Those self-serving ambitions are arguably no worse than the current, toxic malice of Russia and the US, but they are certainly no better for global peace and prosperity over the long haul. Ask any country in Asia or Africa that has been directly touched by those ambitions.

      Not everything that happens is a cunning US plot. China doesn’t get a free pass just because the US has become a metastatic cancer on the international body politic.

  15. .Tom

    The Peter Hitches column in Daily Mail mentioned in Alan Watson’s tweet:

    We’re not being told the truth about Ukraine. This was the moment the mask slipped and I saw why the elites want to wage this hideous war for ever…

    https://archive.is/4zZX9

    He wrote that “Tony Radakin, the interesting lawyer who has just stepped down as head of Britain’s Armed Forces” has explained that the war’s purpose is to prevent development in Russia. That thing we have charities and quangos encouraging in some countries — development — we encourage millions of Ukrainians to sacrifice their lives and country to deter in Russia.

    The Admiral first predicted that, if Russia carries on fighting for the Ukrainian land it says it wants, it will lose a further two million men, killed or wounded, on top of the million it is already thought to have lost.

    “Then he said: ‘This is about Ukraine’s bravery, Ukraine’s courage, our support to Ukraine to keep them in the fight and to keep them imposing that cost on Russia.’ It’s the frankness of that last bit that is so startling. I think the West doesn’t especially want peace. Western policy in this region has the aim of preventing a Russian recovery. This has been so since the moment it was devised by the ultra–hawk Paul Wolfowitz in the Pentagon 30 years ago. But you don’t often hear it so clearly set out.”

    1. AG

      appreciate the info

      (Of course anyone – still – publicly suggesting Russia “will lose a further two million men, killed or wounded, on top of the million it is already thought to have lost” is a war criminal/fully braindead.

      It´s just beyond me that someone can actually say this without a million tweets exploding into his or her face.)

      I am just shaking my head this moment. In fact the dishonesty across the board is bigger than with Gaza by now. That´s “good news” on one side (something there does change), but then for the AFU soldiers killed and maimed who are whether armed or not, human beings, it´s a catastrophe of for long unprecedented proportions around here – and so much in vain.

      re: Wolfowitz – again this 146 min interview with Scott Horton on the US´s 9/11 wars – with all his flaws (Russia!) it´s still packed with background knowledge.

      https://www.nachdenkseiten.de/?p=138504

  16. Wukchumni

    I’m gonna have to raise doubt on the latest Trumpstein article to come out of the woodwork, in that the ‘breasts’ are way too small on Epstein’s birthday letter, although Donald’s 6.3 nom doubloon on the Richter Scale signature seems legit.

  17. The Rev Kev

    ” Why even an IMF bailout couldn’t save Britain now”

    I cannot see how an IMF bailout would help Britain as you have the same people – from both parties – that are running Britain into a ditch beg responsible to us any borrowed funds. You just know that they would stuff it up. So suppose that Starmer gets $30bn from the IMF. He would probably put 5 billion into something like government admin and then us the 5 billion “saved” to give to the Ukraine, money that would have to be eventually paid back to the IMF.

    1. Mikel

      Britain’s manufacturing/productive capacity started being sold off for parts in the 1960s. The islands aren’t as packed with resources as many other countries.
      So I’m wondering how much of the “size of the economy” is financial assets. What am I missing?

  18. leaf

    Appears the Israelis, with American blessing, attempted to assassinate the Hamas leadership that was debating the latest proposal in Qatar.
    At this point you have to wonder why anyone bothers to negotiate with Americans since it just serves as a way for them to collect everyone in one spot to be killed

    1. The Rev Kev

      You had the same happen in Afghanistan. The Americans would be conducting negotiations with the Taliban and as that Taliban negotiator was heading back to his leadership with the latest proposal, some general thought that it was a great opportunity to nail him with a missile strike and make himself look good.

      1. Mikel

        They are also still firing into Syria and Lebanon this week.

        Doesn’t look like they are losing too much support with getting armaments.

          1. Alice X

            The show, in power, is the power. I no longer emphasize it.

            Layers of power beset the masses.

            The old is still new again.

  19. MicaT

    Electricity costs.
    The most important part is the graphic that shows the different regions and expected growth due to DC/AI. And that as a country the issues are highly localized to specific regions.
    What it shows is that most of the country isn’t a problem. Texas is well equipped to add lots more energy due to it being a major producer of gas and renewables as well as pretty easy regulations for adding. PJM is a totally different story. Their recent energy auction ( it’s a totally weird system they have that worked well until very recently) is so high that the pushback from buyers is now very strong and PJM is backpedaling. Looks like they might be going the route of any new data centers have to pay for their power instead of spreading it out to customers.
    Maybe a shift is starting.

    1. Louis Fyne

      >>>And that as a country the issues are highly localized to specific regions.

      It shows up at the RTO (regional transmission) level even if you live 500 miles away from the nearest data center….in that data center demand drives up the demand and cost of peak electricity delivery (capacity charge).

      Increased capacity charges gets passed onto all users within the same RTO. https://atlas.eia.gov/datasets/rto-regions/about

      Analogy: you live in a 100-acre subdivision, 2 neighbors at the other side use ginormous amounts of water and sewage. The water main and pumps into the subdivision has to be made bigger to accommodate those 2 users. The way that the current system allocates costs, those costs are spread proportionately across all users.

      and alas the current system is not perfect, but it is the least bad viable alternate. (I favor a progressive “capacity charge” but that will never happen given the asymmetric lobbying power of Big Tech versus hoi-polloi)

      1. micat

        RTO is not a big expense for the overall electric rate.

        And the main issue with such potential new large loads is that no utility has the built in extra capacity to power them, regardless of where the power lines come from. And the power lines don’t have the extra capacity as they are built around already designed loads. Sure there is head room but not 30-60GW of head room.

        I have read new reports that the one area PJM that potential could see the largest increase is meeting massive push back from rate payers because they already have massive rate increases and don’t want to be burdened with paying for AI power. And so they are already publicly talking about that the DC/AI might be separate pay to play systems. Yeah I haven’t seen those contracts either and is it actually true or just a way to shut up the locals, I don’t know. But to me it shows people are paying attention and the old ways might not be the same going forward.

    2. raspberry jam

      I’m not sure that Texas is really well equipped even if they could potentially easily add more capacity. ERCOT is notorious, even now, for rolling blackouts under load and when solar generation or battery capacity are unavailable and there have been major power crises, notably the 2021 winter storm grid failure. Even this summer they were warning of potential rolling blackouts:

      The North American Electric Reliability Council has published its own summer assessment, which also forecasts a lower outage risk. It said ERCOT faces a roughly 3% risk of rolling outages this August in the evenings as solar generation ramps down. That’s down from 15% the year prior.

      The dramatic drop in both reports is mainly due to the rapid growth of battery storage systems and ERCOT’s programs to quickly dispatch them as backup power to keep the grid stable.

      ERCOT’s latest calculations account for 924 megawatts of new battery storage and 355 megawatts of new solar that will be online in time for August’s heat waves.

      but:

      Renewables and batteries just made it through a strenuous legislative session in Texas, avoiding a slew of restrictive policies that died in the House, only to face the possibility of major cuts to federal incentives that have helped them grow across Texas and the country.

      President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” calls for cuts to tax credits available for at-home systems, manufacturing and utility-scale projects.

      Battery energy storage systems — often shortened to BESS — are still a relatively young industry that have relied on the tax credits to help build a business model and boost confidence with investors and financiers.

      The bill calls for a repeal of the sort of tax breaks used by utility-scale battery storage over the next five to seven years. It also could limit eligibility for any projects that rely on foreign supply chains or technology.

      The BBB that passed primarily impacts new, not existing infrastructure, so better hope what has been built is good enough for the climate chaos and AI data center load:

      Notably, as described more fully below, the Act generally does not affect energy projects that began construction by the end of 2024 and are eligible for pre-IRA tax credits pursuant to Section 48 (Section 48 ITC) and Section 45 (Section 45 PTC). In addition, the Act generally maintains the IRA’s initial phaseout schedule for the “technology-neutral” credits for most technologies other than wind and solar, enhances certain clean energy tax credits, and opens up the clean energy sector to investments by publicly traded partnerships.

      Apologies for stepping out of my lane, but I was in the 2021 Texas winter storm and experienced the outage and since have an impressive and unhealthy disgust for the Texas energy grid and the politics surrounding it.

      1. MicaT

        I would just add that Texas is installing more capacity than just about anywhere else.
        As to solar and BESS. It’s the least expensive and fastest to install, even in a state filled with gas.
        Further BESS is not new and is extremely well understood.
        The loss of the tax credits starting in 2026 will have an impact. For commercial/utility they will have I believe 7 yr amortization ( from 5) which my economist neighbor said means a slower ROI. That all said the cost per kWh of BESS storage is extremely low which is why it’s being installed. It’s less expensive than installing a gas peaker plant.

        While Texas has a lot to answer for, they are moving in the right direction of adding all forms of energy to keep their rapidly growing economy working. Is it going to be enough, fast enough? I guess we’ll find out.

  20. David Jones

    Nothing new about Vance then.I’ve always had him down as the most ungivish sort of person anyway.

    1. Lee

      Some might disagree: Cat predation on wildlife (Wikipedia). An excerpt from your neck of the woods, I believe:

      In Australia, hunting by feral cats helped to drive at least 20 native mammals to extinction,[11] and continues to threaten at least 124 more.[11] Their introduction into island ecosystems has caused the extinction of at least 33 endemic species on islands throughout the world.[8] A 2013 systematic review in Nature Communications of data from 17 studies found that feral and domestic cats are estimated to kill billions of birds in the United States every year.[12]

      We keep our cats indoors. At times, when we’ve inadvertently left a door to the outside open, they take one wide eyed look at the world out there and beat a hasty retreat to the interior— an impulse I more and more share with them of late.

      1. Dave in Sydney

        Thanks Lee yes there are local area councils here and there in Australia that actually forbid the owning of domestic cats in that neighbourhood, aware of their definite threat to certain adjacent native species – both fauna & flora.
        there are videos on youtube of what domestic cats in Australia look like when they become feral – scary!
        they are a real problem in inland Australia and are hunted by landowners.

  22. Jason Boxman

    COVID is that you?

    Reading Skills of 12th Graders Hit a New Low (NY Times via archive.ph)

    High school seniors had the worst reading scores since 1992 on a national test, a loss probably related to increases in screen time and the pandemic. Their math scores fell as well.

    (bold mine)

    But what’s at fault

    The test scores are the first of their kind to be released since the Covid-19 pandemic upended education. They are yet another sign that adolescents are struggling in the wake of the virus, when schools were closed for months or more. They also arrive at a time when Americans overall are abandoning printed text for screen time and video-dominated social media, which experts have linked to declining academics.

    (bold mine)

    At least mentioned, but what illness?

    Test score drops were probably caused in part by the disruptions of the pandemic, including illness, school closures and remote learning. The seniors included in the new federal data were in 8th grade when the virus transformed daily life in March 2020. Millions of teenagers spent a year or more learning online.

    (bold mine)

    ’tis a mystery.

    1. Carolinian

      Not really.

      “Millions of teenagers spent a year or more learning online.”

      This seems more relevant that trying to make Covid the hammer looking for any nail.

      1. Jason Boxman

        Did you even bother to look at links today?

        Children are not spared from #LongCOVID. A study from Taiwan shows that in children ages 6 to 18 years, COVID infection can lead to changes in the brain that are associated with persistent headaches, memory, and attention problems.

        And I’ve posted at length in many comments with evidence from multiple states in regards to excess absenteeism in public schools for two or three years now. While a confluence of factors are often involved in any outcome in real life, to completely ignore an ongoing Pandemic is willful ignorance. Meanwhile the story picks up on every other possible cause, from screen time to remote learning to existing socioeconomic factors.

        The reports from states’ that I’ve reviewed likewise find many possible factors, but never ever mention the ongoing Pandemic as one of them.

        And the data is quite clear that there is an ongoing Pandemic. To reject that is to divorce oneself from reality, a popular American pastime. There’s no legitimate argument to be made that sickness from repeat COVID infection, whether or not it causes absenteeism in any individual instance, lacks effect on learning. Full stop.

        1. Carolinian

          I didn’t say it had no effect. In fact I don’t know what effect it had and unless you have a formal study saying that it does you don’t either.

          What I am saying is that many teachers say that missing that year of actual school was a big setback to those kids both educationally and psychologically. The NYT story is merely reflecting this. Battling speculation with more speculation doesn’t move the ball one way or the other.

          1. Jason Boxman

            In fact I don’t know what effect it had and unless you have a formal study saying that it does you don’t either.

            The burden of proof that it has no impact is nonetheless on you. There’s mountains of population level data showing some ongoing event is causing disability and death; if it’s not a novel virus, what pray tell might it be?

            I agree that there’s no way to know, because no one’s looked, what exactly the impact has been, and it’s unlikely there’s any way to tease out exactly what proportion of this learning gap is specifically attributable to repeat COVID infection.

            But we know without a doubt that kids are getting COVID, repeatedly, and that it demonstrably has a negative physiological effect.

            If your position is that COVID isn’t under every rock, I agree. If your position is that we have no definitive proof that COVID impacted this ongoing learning gap, you’re right. But if your position is COVID cannot be a factor here, we’ll never agree on that.

            1. Carolinian

              But the discussion here is about reading skills, not whether long Covid exists. Also I’m responding to your original comment. In fact I guess that is my response boiled down–the burden of proof is on you.

              And I believe there have been studies showing the closing of the schools had a deleterious effect on learning and in general.

              Fire away, but maybe this thread is long enough.

              1. Jason Boxman

                Never said a word about long-COVID.

                It sounds like you reject that SARS-CoV-2 infections could possibly have any impact whatsoever on education outcomes for children. Suit yourself. That’s a strange absolutism to maintain.

          2. FlyoverBoy

            Except they just showed you a formal study documenting that it has an effect. Its effect is documented brain damage. How is this unrelated to a decline in subsequent academic performance? Am I missing something in the chain of deduction here?

    2. ArcadiaMommy

      In PHX, the private school kids for the most part went back to school in August 2020 with masks. I’m not sure what the public schools did. From what I saw, the little ones suffered academically the most. My oldest tutored a 2nd 3rd and 4th grader because they lost so much ground sitting around in front of a computer. They probably would have been better served playing outside. He also tutored kids as part of NJHS, also mostly younger kids.

      My boys and the kids at the affiliated girls school don’t seem to have suffered academically. My senior is on track for a UC school. I haven’t heard of any covid outbreaks.

      No answer is 100% right with respect to COVID.

    3. Samuel Conner

      I can’t get a friend who is an administrator in a public school to become interested in on-site mitigations, such as room air quality improvement.

      My perception is that people don’t want to think about it.

      If the neglect of the ongoing pandemic really is a major problem (my sense is that it probably is), at some point it will be impossible to ignore. I do not look forward to how people will react to that.

  24. Balan Aroxdale

    Banksy mural of judge beating protester at Royal Courts of Justice in London to be removed CBS (Kevin W)

    Culturally and politically, this event marks the end of post Cold War UK liberalism.

    Banksy has for decades been the satirical rougish darling of the british press, the graffiti artist with wit. But he has touched a sore point of British states self-destructive support for Israel and the fun has gone out of it. Where once the graffiti would have stood for weeks or months as languid public services plodded about removing it, now swift orders from bosses drunk with power and paranoia have it removed within hours.

    It’s not clear to me whether the English will tolerate the form of government that is now emerging in London.

    1. Carolinian

      Banksy’s defense for his and other grafitti is that he is improving rundown buildings or ugly modern buildings–it’s both political messaging and an artistic critique.

      So the Brit govt excuse for removal from an historic building is not entirely bogus. They should though wait long enough for people to see and photograph. Instantly covering it up reveals their true motive.

      1. Dave in Sydney

        Thank you.
        I do wonder if Banksy had inside help to achieve the task. Well protected building in high density area!
        Say what you will about Banksy
        A lot of his stuff fails to touch me.
        Yet the technical components of this new piece are incredible. So well executed and realised. Correctly portraying the proportion and symmetry in the two figures chosen stance is very easy to get wrong. Look closely at how accurate those complex postures are. Its very very good.
        (NB he uses a pre prepared stencil so he can be quicker on the spot + depart the location sooner)

  26. The Rev Kev

    “ChatCGT evades count to one million”

    It was surprising to see that ChatCGT be so obstinate in refusing to count to a million. Actually it is bad news this. On an early episode of Start Trek an entity had seized control of the ship’s computer. Spock asked the computer to calculate the last digit of Pi and as more an more memory was used by the computer, the entity was forced out. Try that with ChatCGT and it will refuse and say that it is a waste of its resources.

    1. Mass Driver

      That’s poor scriptwriting*. The computer-from-the-future should know that π does not have a last digit.

      * Or scriptwriting for dumb audience to feel smart. I’ve read somewhere that, in the original verson of the script, The Matrix used humans for computing power. Since that was deemed too complicated for the wide audience, they switched it for humans being used as batteries.

  28. Louis Fyne

    Obama presidential library costs > $600 million. (still not open). Obama Foundation raises >$1 billion for construction and operating expenses.

    Biden family chooses Delaware for his library; says his library’s cost will be in the middle >$1 billion for Obama’s and Bush Sr’s $43 million 1997 library.

    It’s good to be an ex-POTUS.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/obama-center-construction-tab-reaches-233900476.html

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-picks-location-for-presidential-library-but-opts-out-of-budget-as-850m-obama-center-sparks-controversy/ar-AA1M29xP?

    1. griffen

      It’s a winner winner chicken dinner world isn’t it ? I’ll wonder now if insurance companies and pharmaceutical companies feature prominently as donors to that yet to be constructed Joe Biden library. Preferably there is an ice cream shop included.

      As for libraries, the absolute timeless quote about a library came some 25 years ago, from college football and the Ol’ ball coach at UF, Steve Spurrier. Upon learning that an on campus library had burned in an unfortunate incident at Auburn University, Spurrier had this one liner.

      “That’s a shame their library burned, since a few coloring books weren’t completed”

  29. Jason Boxman

    Bidenomics

    Job growth revised down by 911,000 through March, signaling economy on shakier footing than realized (CNBC)

    Who’s fired now?

    The labor market created far fewer jobs than previously thought, according to a Labor Department report Tuesday that added to concerns both about the health of the economy and the state of data collection.

    Annual revisions to nonfarm payrolls data for the year prior to March 2025 showed a drop of 911,000 from the initial estimates, according to a preliminary report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The total revision was on the high end of Wall Street expectations, which ranged from a low around 600,000 to as many as a million.

    The revisions were more than 50% higher than last year’s adjustment and the largest on record going back to 2002. On a monthly basis, they suggest average job growth of 76,000 less than initially reported.

    I’ve been seeing the occasional person walking on the busy 4 lane here, rural area, for years now. I consider these Bidenomics sightings, because without a car out here, you’re completely screwed.

    1. griffen

      Will Mr. Krugman or Mr. Noah Smith please answer the courtesy phone please? We all really want to have serious discussion on the crap econ articles written by either one from recent years. This is a modern day realization that it’s more yellow brick road fantasy than reality, when it’s revealed such experts in our government just can’t accurately count. Horrid.

      I know it’s become a Republican trope since the August payrolls were released, but Wharton econ professor Jeremy Siegel is, perhaps, the only economic commentator to not let the BLS ( as a government unit ) just slide on this result ( and he wasn’t doing so on Fox, either ).

    2. Wukchumni

      Funny number: 911,000

      Almost as if some statistician was trying to get out a message about another 9/11 event~

    1. vao

      One Flakturm was completed in Berlin in 1942 for a cost of 45’000’000 Reichsmark. This corresponds to 240’310’202 USD in 2025 (via a historical currency converter, and then another conversion to bring 2015 USD to 2025 USD).

      So 600’000’000 USD is indeed expensive, but take into account the fact that we are dealing with the luxury model…

  31. JMH

    Maralagoing the White House: In the fullness of time … but soon is my preference … the glitz and gilding, the paved rose garden and the ballroom with all its glitz and gilding can be removed, erased, obliterated. There are people with money and good taste who would welcome the chance to return architectural, decorative, and floral decorum. It is after all an 18th century house, much modified, but that is what it is. It is not some cut rate Versailles gussied up to gratify the taste of a man I consider a vulgarian.

    1. CanCyn

      Agreed re things can be changed but … it is a historical place. I think re-decorating to a president’s personal tastes should be limited to their personal space and the Oval Office. Otherwise there should be some kind of committee to do historical oversight/approval for changes to any other part of the house or grounds.

      1. griffen

        There is the red meat to the base of followers and listeners to it, for certain. There is also the aspect of being murdered on a very simple train or light rail trip home for the night. In a city in the south which 10 years ago, I’m not sure this would happen.

        I don’t grok often enough just how terribly uneven or unreliable, in general, that reporting has become over the past few decades… Recent examples are just numerous, like Joe Biden was sharp as a tack until he wasn’t. Donald Trump is nearing deaths door, and US Representative from CA Nancy Pelosi doesn’t actively trade in stock options it’s just her effing husband Paul.

      2. Lazar

        Everyone is just trying to score points. That is the American way. I think I saw Musk jumping on the bandwagon, because that’s what he does. No shame whatsoever. The guy that is directly involved in a war that caused the victim to move into crime-ridden shithole (paradoxically, the Ukraine would be safer for her), is trying to get clout from it. Nothing is sacred, and everything is for grabs.

  33. XXYY

    JD Vance: I don’t care if strike on Venezuela drug boat is war crime Telegraph

    It’s easy to see the thinking of Washington bully boys. Most of the countries in the world have turned out to be too much for the US military, from Russia and China, all the way down to the Houthi.

    Great time to reset our sights on people that not only wear sandals instead of boots, but also don’t have guns, drones, or missiles. The US has always done fairly well against opponents of this type, or at least has not been sent packing in short order in most cases.

    Should make it easy to wave the flag and pump some more money into the military industrial complex. This at least is something we really know how to do.

    1. rasta

      Once Hispanic fishermen get some discount MANPADS from Ukraine, JD Vance will move on to Amazonian tribes, and justify it with Ayahuasca national emergency.

    2. ACPAL

      If destroying the boat and crew was illegal then did the US Navy officer who ordered the missile launch obey an illegal command? It sounds to me like that officer could be charged with a war crime, or at least murder.

      1. thrombus

        What do you mean “if”? Since when was killing people that are not shooting at you not a crime?

        No one will be charged with anything, because USA have done similar things gazillion times. The only result of a drone strike on wedding was a medal for those involved, probably.

  34. Carolinian

    Taibbi defends his silence on Gaza but mostly behind his paywall.

    https://www.racket.news/p/in-gaza-does-silence-equal-violence

    Of course he is entitled to write about anything he wants including 9 year old and already well covered political scandals like Russiagate. And we are entitled to not find that very interesting. He tees off on The Nation and others but perhaps the problem is less news advocacy than those who advocate while pretending to be objective. Silence can speak volumes.

    1. NN Cassandra

      Israel supporters will argue with you. They will get defensive on days like today and lecture you about the history leading up to their decision. American advocates for Palestine don’t bother arguing.

      Can this be interpreted in any other way than that Taibbi thinks Zionist have solid arguments while their opponents don’t?

      1. Carolinian

        He doth protest too much IMO.

        If he and Kirn don’t want to talk about it that’s up to them. My beef is that they seem to be allergic to offering much criticism of Trump at all. The Dems are out of power. We have new more relevant targets now.

        1. lyman alpha blob

          Their latest podcast is interesting. I’ve only listened to half so far, and it rehashes a lot of what Taibbi wrote in the link you posted above. They do make a decent point about Bari Weiss’ hiring that so many have decried – an already pro-Israel corporate media network hiring yet another pro-Israel pundit really isn’t news, it’s just the completely expected status quo. And again without getting specific, Taibbi notes that his politics are mostly the opposite of Weiss’.

  37. Tom Stone

    When I was brushing my tooth this morning I realized why Trendy Arugula and the other narco terrorist gangs had so many high ranking members working at car washes.
    Those places are washing Money, not just Tesla’s!

  39. LawnDart

    Re; Class Warfare (I think)

    This rather intense article is a must-read, especially if you buy groceries or like to eat:

    Outraged Farmers Blame Ag Monopolies as Catastrophic Collapse Looms

    The inescapable crop math of sustained crippling commodity prices and high input costs has many growers screaming for immediate relief. However, bailouts are Band-Aids over bullet holes, contend farmers desperate for fundamental change.

    Personally, I think that this is but another facet of our economy: it’s steering for the ditch, intentionally, where the cash-rich are already waiting and eagerly rubbing their paws together in anticipation of picking up pieces of distressed-assets for pennies on the dollar.

    Which bubble or what future incident will be the spark that leads us to fire-sale America? Too many possibilities to chose from…

  40. skippy

    Laura Ingraham
    @IngrahamAngle
    ·
    19h
    “The president reminded us: our rights don’t come from politicians. They come from God. And government’s role is to protect them, not invent them.” — @BishopBarron

    File under what happens when some of the most anti social criminals with elite status wrap themselves in religion. Better yet … after decades of neoliberalism advanced by this class … they lay all the blame on the weakest without agency in society, immigrants, poor, consumer[tm], imaginary socialists/commies, any nation that does not comply …

    Like Thiel et al some seem to want Divine Rule again ….. I ponder what old NC commenter Beardo thinks now …

    1. hk

      Thiel et al think that they are gods. Of course they want divine rule–by themselves, without anyone objecting.

      1. Skippy

        Basically he is saying rights are not due to any form of democracy or representation by citizen voting. Its all been preordained. Government is just the enforcer.

  41. Tom Stone

    We’ve had a little rain in the wine country starting last night, about 1/4 inch so far.
    It is drizzling at the moment and 75 degrees Fahrenheit.
    Great for powdery mildew, bad for wine grapes.
    It has been a cool summer and I’d expect the white wine grape grape growers to start their harvest in the next week or so with the reds starting 2-3 weeks after that.
    If the next few days are cool and windy and the growers got the big blowers out in time losses will be manageable.
    Input costs have been high this year ( Fertilizer and pesticides), if their are significant losses to mildew some mid size outfits are going to be hurting.

  42. nyleta

    Coalition of the willing look they are trying to pull a false flag in Poland at the moment, claiming Russian drones are intentionally entering Polish air space in numbers.

  43. Horne Fisher

    So glad to see a link to Jeff Snider at Eurodollar University. I find his analysis extremely helpful in understanding monetary policy. Please keep them coming.

  44. AG

    re: study – Germany end of combustion engine fallout?

    German article:

    use google to translate

    German car industry in crisis: Future of 3.2 million jobs at risk due to combustion engine phase-out
    https://www.telepolis.de/features/Deutsche-Autoindustrie-in-der-Krise-Zukunft-von-3-2-Mio-Jobs-durch-Verbrenner-Aus-gefaehrdet-10638316.html

    The original German study by the rather neoliberal “Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft” in Cologne

    Automotive Industry: These Regions Are Particularly Threatened by the End of Combustion Engines

    From 2035, no new cars with combustion engines will be registered in the EU – this has serious consequences for the German automotive industry. A new study by the German Economic Institute (IW) shows which regions require the most change.

    Germany, a united automotive nation: Nationwide, 3.2 million people work in the automotive or supplier industry, and the sector is still considered a model industry. But the changes are significant: From 2035, no cars with diesel or gasoline engines will be allowed in the EU (as of now). Germany has a lot of catching up to do, especially in electromobility: While one in five cars worldwide came from a German manufacturer in 2024, the figure for electric cars was only around one in ten.

    https://www.iwkoeln.de/presse/pressemitteilungen/hanno-kempermann-johannes-ewald-diese-regionen-sind-besonders-vom-verbrenner-aus-bedroht.html

  45. Ben Panga

    Israel launches airstrikes against top Hamas members in Qatar for Gaza ceasefire talks (Guardian)

    Israel has launched a strike on Hamas officials meeting in Qatar’s capital, Doha, reportedly including the group’s chief ceasefire negotiator, in an attack the White House said “does not advance Israel or America’s goals”.

    Hamas said six people had been killed, including the son of its exiled Gaza chief, Khalil al-Hayya. It said its top leadership, including the negotiations team, had survived.

    BP: Netanyahu full rogue

    1. The Rev Kev

      Rumour control has it that they were gathered to consider an America proposal. And people are noting how the same was done immediately before Israel’s attack on Iran. So the thought is that Trump set them up for this attack by a pretend offer because he is so smart.

      1. Acacia

        If this proves correct — and Trump admitted after the attack on Iran that he knew about Israel’s plan — not only is there no constructive reason to negotiate with the US, but there are many reasons not to negotiate.

    3. hk

      At first, I was thinking it was a Mossad job, ie just a terrorist attack, but Israelis used planes?

      This is an act of war. If the Qataris (and all other gulfies) had half a testicle, they’d be preparing for war. But, of course, they won’t.

    4. raspberry jam

      Doha strike a huge blow to Hamas and Qatar, opportunity for Israel… if it succeeded Times of Israel

      Some interesting bits here, apparently Israel would prefer Egypt take the lead on mediation instead of Qatar? Wonder if they feel they can better dictate terms with the Egyptians:

      Israel will try to show that it has other options, especially through Egypt. That won’t be especially easy. Cairo has been eager to show that it is the key Western asset in the region, and this is its chance to prove that it can leverage its geographical proximity to Gaza and its deep contacts with Hamas military figures to bring an end to a conflict it desperately wants to end.

      Israel has been especially critical of Qatari mediation as well, and seems to trust Egyptian intentions more.

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